Probability Calibration

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18 papers in the last four weeks, up 260% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

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  1. Testable and Actionable Calibration for Full Swap Regret

    May 18, 2026Konstantina Bairaktari, Lunjia Hu, Huy L. Nguyen +1Probability Calibration

    Department of Computer Science, Aarhus University. · Khoury College of Computer Sciences, Northeastern University.

  2. When Individually Calibrated Models Become Collectively Miscalibrated

    May 14, 2026Zhaohui WangProbability CalibrationGame Theory

    USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California

  3. Fair and Calibrated Toxicity Detection with Robust Training and Abstention

    May 13, 2026Mokshit SuranaProbability CalibrationSelective Prediction

    University of Illinois Chicago

  4. When to Trust Confidence Thresholding: Calibration Diagnostics for Pseudo-Labelled Regression

    May 12, 2026Marcell T. KurbuczProbability CalibrationPseudo-Labeling

    Institute for Global Prosperity, The Bartlett, University College London, 9–11 Endsleigh Gardens, London, WC1H 0EH, United Kingdom

  5. ASD-Bench: A Four-Axis Comprehensive Benchmark of AI Models for Autism Spectrum Disorder

    May 11, 2026Shubhankit Singh, Hassan Shaikh, Kuldeep Raghuwanshi +1Probability CalibrationAutism Spectrum Disorder

    Research Commons AI · IIT Bombay · IIT Delhi

  6. Instance-Adaptive Online Multicalibration

    May 10, 2026Zhiming Huang, Jamie Morgenstern, Aaron Roth +1Probability CalibrationModel Calibration

    Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Washington · Department of Computer and Information Sciences, University of Pennsylvania

  7. The Manokhin Probability Matrix: A Diagnostic Framework for Classifier Probability Quality

    May 5, 2026Valery ManokhinPost-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    Independent Researcher

  8. Conformalized Percentile Interval: Finite Sample Validity and Improved Conditional Performance

    May 4, 2026Ran Zou, Wanrong Zhu, Bin NanProbability CalibrationGroup-Conditional Conformal Prediction

    Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine

  9. Multi-Rater Calibrated Segmentation Models

    May 4, 2026Meritxell Riera-Marín, Javier García López, Júlia Rodríguez-Comas +2Inter-Rater ReliabilityImage Segmentation

    aSycai Technologies SL, Scientific and Technical Department, Barcelona, Spain · bBCN Medtech, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain · cInstitució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain +1

  10. Beyond ECE: Calibrated Size Ratio, Risk Assessment, and Confidence-Weighted Metrics

    May 3, 2026Fernando Martin-Maroto, Nabil Abderrahaman, Gonzalo G. de PolaviejaProbability CalibrationUncertainty Calibration

    Mathematics of Behavior and Intelligence Lab. Champalimaud Research. Avenida de Brasília, Lisbon · Algebraic AI Calle Castelló, 117, Madrid

  11. RCProb: Probabilistic rule extraction from classification tree ensembles

    Apr 28, 2026Josue ObregonProbability CalibrationInterpretable ML

    Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology (SeoulTech), Seoul, 01811, Republic of Korea

  12. Exploring Hierarchical Consistency and Unbiased Objectness for Open-Vocabulary Object Detection

    Apr 25, 2026Sanghoon Lee, Geon Lee, Hyekang Park +1Open-Vocabulary Object DetectionProbability Calibration

    Yonsei University · Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST)

  13. The Sample Complexity of Multicalibration

    Apr 23, 2026Natalie Collina, Jiuyao Lu, Georgy Noarov +1Probability CalibrationSample Complexity

    University of Pennsylvania

  14. Multicalibration for Unbiased Model-Based Prevalence Estimation

    Apr 23, 2026Fridolin Linder, Thomas Leeper, Daniel Haimovich +3Probability CalibrationDistribution Shift

    Meta Platforms Inc. · The London School of Economics and Political Science

  15. Multi-modal Test-time Adaptation via Adaptive Probabilistic Gaussian Calibration

    Apr 21, 2026Jinglin Xu, Yi Li, Chuxiong Sun +3Test-Time AdaptationProbability Calibration

    Institute of Software Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · National Defense University

  16. Unified Multimodal Uncertain Inference

    Apr 9, 2026Dengjia Zhang, Alexander Martin, William Jurayj +3Probability CalibrationMultimodal Reasoning

    Johns Hopkins University · Human Language Technology Center of Excellence

  17. Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps

    Mar 11, 2026Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. LeeProbability CalibrationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Statistics, Federal University of Sao Carlos

  18. An intuitive rearranging of the Yates covariance decomposition for probabilistic verification of forecasts with the Brier score

    Mar 4, 2026Bruno Hebling VieiraProbability CalibrationProbabilistic Forecasting

    Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich,2026 Switzerland

  19. Diagnosing Corruption-Induced Reliability Failures in Vision-Language Models

    Nov 24, 2025Xiangjie Sui, Songyang Li, Hanwei Zhu +3VLM EvaluationVLM Robustness

    City University of Macau, Macau SAR, China · Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, China · Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

  20. Risk-Calibrated Bayesian Streaming Intrusion Detection with SRE-Aligned Decisions

    Sep 17, 2025Michel A. YoussefCost-Sensitive LearningProbability Calibration

    Independent Researcher · Independent Researcher, Lebanon

  21. Optimal and Provable Calibration in High-Dimensional Binary Classification: Angular Calibration and Platt Scaling

    Feb 21, 2025Yufan Li, Pragya SurProbability CalibrationBinary Classification

    Department of Statistics Harvard University Cambrdige, MA 02138

  22. Breaking the T2/3T^{2/3} Barrier for Sequential Calibration

    Jun 19, 2024Yuval Dagan, Constantinos Daskalakis, Maxwell Fishelson +3Probability Calibration

    Tel Aviv University · MIT & Archimedes AI · MIT +1

  23. MetaMax: Improved Open-Set Deep Neural Networks via Weibull Calibration

    Nov 20, 2022Zongyao Lyu, Nolan B. Gutierrez, William J. BeksiProbability CalibrationOpen-Set Recognition

    The University of Texas at Arlington Arlington, TX, USA

  24. A Calibration Audit of Confidence in Feed-Forward 3D Reconstruction Models

    Date pendingNanxing Nick Deng, Qing Cheng, Niclas Zeller +1Post-Hoc CalibrationProbability Calibration

    Technical University of Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML) · Karlsruhe University of Applied Sciences