Quantitative Finance

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 9% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 123

Jun 22, 2026cs.AI

Decomposing Financial Market Dynamics via Mechanism Analysis in an Evolutionary Multi-Agent Simulation

Evolutionary agent-based markets (ABMs) couple several mechanisms -- who reproduces, how price forms, how biased the agents are, how consensus propagates -- yet these are usually fixed by convention, so it is unclear which mechanism controls which emergent property. In a coevolving, endogenous-price simulator with 120 heterogeneous behavioral agents, we make four mechanisms pluggable and run matched 3x20-seed interventions. We find the levers are largely separable. (1) Selection -> diversity: a Quality-Diversity (QD/MAP-Elites) operator robustly raises strategy-mix entropy over truncation top-k (paired Delta entropy +0.27 to +1.12 bits; sign-test p<0.001; CIs exclude 0) and sustains more strategy cycling (strongest in crisis: Delta=+0.070, p=0.0004). (2) Selection does not improve realism: even a per-agent realism reward that provably steers selection does not raise 5-fact realism (Delta_5=-0.11,-0.08,+0.03; not significant). (3) Microstructure -> realism: enabling reflexive price feedback does raise realism (Delta_5=+0.13,+0.20,+0.20; crisis/bull p<0.05, all CIs positive). (4) Behavior -> fragility: amplifying behavioral bias raises a genomic fragility proxy (Delta=+10.5,+11.1,+14.4; bull p<0.001, all CIs positive) while leaving realism flat. The remaining mechanism -- consensus network topology -- shows no robust effect (honest null). The contribution is a decomposition: in these single-mechanism sweeps the mechanisms behave as approximately distinct control knobs over diversity, realism, and fragility.

Zhibao Chen

Quantitative Finance Agent-Based Modeling Finance Emergent Behavior in Multi-Agent Systems

Jun 16, 2026cs.LG

Continuous-time Optimal Stopping through Deep Reinforcement Learning

Simulation based solvers for optimal stopping problems must discretize the stopping decision. Under classical dynamic programming, a coarse exercise grid with only a few stopping opportunities can materially undervalue the optimal expected reward, whereas on a very fine grid, approximation errors accumulate through the backward recursion. To remove this limitation, we develop a new reinforcement-learning inspired algorithm that enables us to learn the exercise rule at arbitrarily fine time resolution. Our CARLOS (Continuous-time Adaptive Reinforcement Learning for Optimal Stopping) algorithm utilizes an aggregate deep neural network (ADNN) to learn a joint space-time decision boundary. Starting from a coarse time grid, we progressively increase the frequency of stopping opportunities, while in parallel training the ADNN to refine its timing-value estimates. We moreover design an adaptive sampling strategy that gradually concentrates training effort near the stopping boundary. Benchmarked results show that CARLOS delivers higher prices than existing Bermudan solvers, approaching the American upper bound, and achieves high computational efficiency relative to non-RL comparators.

Cosmin Borsa, Michael Ludkovski

Department of Statistics & Applied Probability, UC Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara, CA 93106-3110, USA

Quantitative Finance Sequential Decision Making Optimal Stopping Continuous-Time RL

Jun 15, 2026cs.LG

Beyond the Smile: A Hybrid Convolutional VAE for Crypto Volatility Surfaces

We present a convolutional variational autoencoder for cryptocurrency implied-volatility surfaces, together with a deployable predictor that combines it with a quadratic smile re-fit through a deterministic per-tenor routing rule. Trained on 6,034 fully-filled hourly Binance Options surfaces of BTC and ETH spanning May-October 2023 and parameterised on a common

6 \times 7

tenor-delta grid, the model attains a hidden-cell surface-completion RMSE in the 0.94-1.56 vol-point range across both markets and mask rates 10-50%. The hybrid predictor attains 0.83 vol points at 50% masking against 7.00 for the smile re-fit alone, an eightfold reduction obtained at no additional inference cost. Under structurally-correlated hole patterns that emulate the withdrawal of an entire tenor of strikes, the smile re-fit incurs 9.6-13.1 vol points of error while the learned model remains at 1.5-1.9, isolating a regime in which the generative model is the only viable predictor. Joint training on BTC and ETH improves the in-distribution model on both markets by 9-27% relative to the better-performing single-symbol counterpart, indicating a substantially shared vol-surface manifold across the two largest cryptocurrencies over the observation window. The hybrid is calendar- and butterfly-arbitrage-free at the listed strikes, a property that the parametric smile re-fit alone fails at high mask rates. The per-snapshot reconstruction error of the trained model flags the late-October ETF-anticipation rally and the August

17

,

2023

flash crash as elevated-error periods without supervision. All training and evaluation infrastructure is released to support reproducible follow-on work.

Sadanand Singh, Allam Reddy, Manan Chopra

Jasper Research, USA

Variational Autoencoders Quantitative Finance

Jun 14, 2026cs.LG

Mojo: A Promising Tool for Scalable Financial AI Efficiency

For thirty years, quantitative finance has paid a costly two-language tax: models researched in Python are rewritten in C++ for production, often introducing numerical discrepancies. GPU-accelerated deep learning exacerbates this problem, as nondeterministic floating-point reductions can produce drift in long backtests, challenging regulatory reproducibility and auditability expectations. This article surveys Mojo, Modular's 2026 Python-like systems language, as a structural response for capital markets engineering. While closing the Python-to-C++ performance gap, Mojo uniquely combines native interoperability with the low-level systems control required to construct bit-exact deterministic kernels. Its MLIR compilation infrastructure further allows a single codebase to target scalar, SIMD, multicore, and GPU execution, reducing the translation bottleneck between research and production. We benchmark four core financial AI workloads: Monte Carlo option pricing, LLM sentiment inference, multi-asset backtesting, and portfolio Value at Risk. On Apple Silicon, Mojo demonstrates 20x to 180x speedups over pure Python on directly measured kernels; larger-scale GPU workload results are projections calibrated from published benchmarks. Alongside transparent performance data, we introduce mojo-deterministic, an open-source library of reproducible reduction kernels, and provide a candid assessment of the problems Mojo does and does not yet solve.

Henry Han

Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Innovation Laboratory, School of Engineering and Computer Science, Baylor University, USA

Quantitative Finance ML Reproducibility Finance

Jun 11, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Factor Decomposition for Decision Intelligence in Large-Scale Financial Markets: Evidence from China's A-Share Market

We present an interpretable machine learning pipeline to decompose Cross-Sectional Equity Return Predictability into auditable factor contribution. We apply an XGBoost model with TreeSHAP attribution and conduct stress testing on 3632 Chinese A-share stocks from 2009 until 2019. Using 60-month, rolling windows over 55 months of out-of-sample data, XGBoost obtains a mean AUC of 0.547 and +2.38%/month (Newey-West t = 5.94; Annualized Sharpe 2.23) long-short spread for the top vs bottom quintiles. This alpha is persistent after adjusting for the Carhart four-factor model (+2.31%/month; t = 7.48). SHAP Decomposition indicates that behavioral signals (turnover and momentum) account for 58.2% of predictive attribution compared to 10.7% for valuation ratios, on average, across 55 industry groups. Ablation analysis serves to cross-validate this ranking and provides evidence that SHAP and ablation diverge in a manner that highlights feature substitutability structure that is largely invisible to either method used in isolation.

Xiao Han, Yao Xiao, Zhen Zhang +1

Goizueta Business School Emory University Atlanta, GA, USA · College of Computing Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA, USA · School of Data Science University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, PA, USA +1

Quantitative Finance Interpretable ML Finance Financial Decision-Making

Jun 9, 2026cs.LG

Mitigating Bias in Low-SNR Financial Reinforcement Learning via Quantum Representations

The financial market is a typical low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) setting, which often destabilizes off-policy maximum-entropy methods like Soft Actor-Critic (SAC). Specifically, noisy state representations may produce unreliable Q-value estimates, and bootstrapping amplifies these errors, forming a failure mode we call the "Financial Entropy Trap". In this paper, we propose FPQC-SAC, an efficient and plug-and-play SAC variant that places a compact and bounded Parameterized Quantum Circuit (PQC) before the actor and critic networks to constrain feature propagation at the representation level, rather than filtering raw inputs or regularizing Q-values after bootstrapping. Notably, FPQC-SAC reduces the impact of extreme market fluctuations on Bellman target estimation, while trainable quantum entanglement preserves flexible cross-asset interactions. Empirical evaluations on real-world portfolio management tasks demonstrate that FPQC-SAC substantially enhances out-of-sample stability and cumulative returns by achieving a 66.89% relative gain in cumulative return over standard unconstrained SAC and outperforms the best continuous-control deep reinforcement learning baseline by approximately 27%. Open-source code is available at https://github.com/ZeyuLIU-UST/FPQC-SAC-main.

Zeyu Liu, Xuanzhi Feng, Sing Kwong Lai +6

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Quantitative Finance Quantum Machine Learning Maximum Entropy RL Quantum RL Off-Policy RL Finance

Jun 9, 2026cs.AI

A Unified Multi-Modal Framework for Intelligent Financial Systems: Integrating Reinforcement Learning, High-Frequency Trading, and Game-Theoretic Approaches with Cross-Modal Sentiment Analysis

The rapid evolution of financial technology demands sophisticated artificial intelligence systems capable of handling diverse challenges across multiple domains simultaneously. This paper presents a groundbreaking unified framework that seamlessly integrates Proximal Policy Optimization for robo-advisory systems, advanced time-series prediction models for high-frequency trading, in-context learning mechanisms for dynamic investment advisory, game-theoretic approaches for competitive banking scenarios, and unified embeddings for cross-modal financial sentiment analysis. Our comprehensive framework addresses the critical gap in existing literature where these technologies have been developed in isolation, failing to leverage their synergistic potential. Through extensive experimentation across multiple financial datasets and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate that our integrated approach achieves superior performance compared to specialized single-domain systems. Specifically, our framework shows a 23.7% improvement in portfolio optimization metrics, reduces prediction error in high-frequency trading by 31.2%, enhances investment recommendation accuracy by 18.9%, optimizes competitive banking strategies with a 27.4% increase in Nash equilibrium convergence speed, and improves sentiment analysis accuracy by 15.6% through cross-modal fusion. The theoretical foundation of our work establishes convergence guarantees for the integrated optimization problem, while our empirical results validate the practical applicability across diverse financial institutions. This research not only advances the state-of-the-art in financial AI but also provides a blueprint for developing comprehensive intelligent systems that can adapt to the complex, interconnected nature of modern financial markets.

Fanrong Liu, Zhang Yuwei, Mingni Luo

Henan University, International Eurasia College, Kaifeng, Henan, China · City University of Hong Kong, College of Business, Hong Kong, China · Northeastern University, School of Electronic and Information Engineering, Seattle, United States

Reinforcement Learning Quantitative Finance Financial Sentiment Analysis Multimodal Fusion Algorithmic Trading

Jun 8, 2026cs.LG

Fast Exact Nearest-Neighbor Learning for High-Frequency Financial Time Series

AI efficiency at scale is becoming critical in finance as market data volumes surge across equities, ETFs, FX, options, and high-frequency trading streams. This growth creates a core challenge for mature financial AI systems: models must learn from larger historical corpora while still meeting real-time latency constraints in trading, risk management, and derivative pricing. We use exact nearest-neighbor learning for high-frequency financial time series as a concrete case study to show that Mojo-based financial AI can address this challenge. We introduce a Mojo SIMD k-d tree with variance-based splitting, contiguous flat-buffer storage, and compile-time vectorized distance computation. We also provide a runtime result showing that, under standard pruning and implementation-cost assumptions, the Mojo SIMD k-d tree asymptotically dominates Mojo SIMD brute force and scikit-learn's k-d tree in the fixed-stock, large-

n

, moderate-dimensional regime. Empirically, across eight financial datasets on x86 and ARM64 with up to 277K training samples, the method achieves 17.5--21.6

\times

speedup over scikit-learn's k-d tree on x86 and 28.1--43.5

\times

over scikit-learn brute force on ARM64 equity/ETF datasets, while preserving exact outputs. Beyond nearest-neighbor inference, Mojo's compiled execution enables an Extra Trees-based implied-volatility pricing model to train on

10\times

more options data, reducing put-IV RMSE by 8.0%. These results position Mojo as a scalable, production-ready stack for financial AI and a promising foundation for efficient AI in other data-intensive fields. \keywords{Financial AI \and AI Efficiency \and Mojo \and SIMD \and K-D Trees \and KNN \and High-Frequency Trading \and Financial Time Series \and Scaling}

Henry Han, Diane Li

Data Science and Artificial Intelligence Innovation Laboratory, School of Engineering and Computer Science, Baylor University, Waco, TX 76798, USA · Department of Business, Management and Accounting, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, USA

Quantitative Finance Efficient Inference k-Nearest Neighbors Finance

Jun 8, 2026cs.LG

Addressing Market Regime Changes and Heavy-Tailed Returns in Portfolio Optimization via Bayesian VAR and Elliptical Black-Litterman

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data. However, these models fail to account for fat-tailed returns, which characterize actual market behavior with more frequent extreme events. Furthermore, historical data is treated homogeneously, without accounting for temporal importance, leading models to fail during regime changes. We propose a new BAVAR-BLED algorithm that combines methods derived from Bayesian-Averaging Vector Autoregressive (BAVAR) and the Black-Litterman model using Elliptical Distributions (BLED) within a TD3 architecture. BAVAR captures a set of vector autoregressive representations that consider multi-scale temporal features, enabling adaptive allocation decisions based on regime-aware estimates of return expectations and dispersion matrices. These estimates serve as prior inputs to BLED, a model that uses Student's t-distributions, allowing for more realistic fat tail return estimates. The BAVAR-BLED algorithm uses transformer networks for view construction and CNNs for risk-aversion estimates, which modify dynamic allocation decisions based on market conditions. An evaluation of 29 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents over a decade-long market period shows that BAVAR-BLED significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving Sharpe and Sortino ratios of 1.72 and 2.70, respectively, and total returns of 57.26%.

Daniil Mikriukov, Ruoyu Sun, Angelos Stefanidis +2

University of Liverpool · Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University · Department of Computer Science, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom +1

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Financial Time Series

Jun 5, 2026cs.LG

PandaAI: A Practical Agent CQ2 for Neuro-symbolic Data Analysis And Integrated Decision-Making in Quantitative Finance

While deep learning has excelled in various domains, its application to sequential decision-making in finance remains challenging due to the low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) and non-stationarity of financial data. Leveraging the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), we propose \textbf{PandaAI}, a closed-loop neuro-symbolic LLM agent with market regime modeling and constrained alpha generation, which bridges general LLM reasoning with financial rigor and suppresses the financial toxicity of LLM-generated outputs. To bridge the gap between general linguistic capability and financial rigor, we fine-tune a domain-specific LLM. Furthermore, we integrate this LLM into a modular architecture and form a closed-loop system. Unlike traditional models that optimize isolated prediction metrics, \textbf{PandaAI} is designed as a neuro-symbolic agent that navigates the complex, real-world financial environment with explicit risk awareness. Extensive experiments on CSI 300 stock data show that \textbf{PandaAI} achieves a

18.2\%

higher Rank IC and

25.7\%

lower maximum drawdown than state-of-the-art time-series models. Our constrained LLM generation and dual-channel adaptation method provide a general paradigm for LLM deployment in high-stakes sequential decision-making scenarios.

Yuqi Li, Siyuan Liu, Bingjun Liu

Panda AI

Quantitative Finance LLM Decision-Making LLM Agents Neuro-Symbolic AI Finance Algorithmic Trading

Jun 4, 2026q-fin.CP

PIVOT: Bridging Black-Scholes Implied-Volatility and Price Objectives via Differentiable Jäckel Operator

Modern option-learning systems operate in two coordinates: price space, where markets quote and no-arbitrage constraints are most naturally enforced, and implied volatility (IV) space, where volatility surfaces are smoothed, regularized, and evaluated. The bottleneck is interface, not approximation: Jäckel's seminal "Let's Be Rational" (LBR) solver already inverts the Black-Scholes price to machine precision efficiently. What is missing is a differentiable layer that preserves LBR in the forward pass and avoids backpropagating through its branch logic. Such a layer must also confront the unavoidable singularity of the inverse map in the low-vega regime, where the sensitivity 1/vega diverges as vega -> 0. We close this gap with PIVOT, the Price-Implied-Volatility Objective Translator. PIVOT keeps the LBR forward pass intact and supplies the backward pass by implicit differentiation through the smooth Black-Scholes/Black-76 price map, with an explicit gating contract: invalid domains return NaN, well-conditioned rows receive the exact 1/vega gradient, and low-vega rows are attenuated rather than silently regularized. On a single H100, a fused Triton kernel reaches 1.79e9 IV/s at machine precision (9.3e-14 max relative error vs. the reference C solver); end-to-end label generation sustains 48.9M/s on synthetic chains and 16.6M/s on SPX OptionMetrics. In a HyperIV-style one-day reproduction on SPX, PIVOT-augmented objectives Pareto-dominate the baselines, reducing held-out price MAE by up to 43.4% and the strongest three-seed gated objective improving price MAE by 38.8% and IV MAE by 21.3% jointly; cross-asset results on RUT, VIX, and NDX show directional price-MAE gains of 40.1%, 24.2%, and 16.7%, while an ungated IV-roundtrip control collapses to a degenerate near-zero surface, confirming the gate as a correctness contract rather than a tuning knob.

Raeid Saqur, Yannick Limmer, Anastasis Kratsios +2

Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford · Vector Institute for AI · DRW +1

Quantitative Finance Differentiable Programming Finance

Jun 3, 2026stat.ML

ReSGA: A Large Tail Risk Model for Learning Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall

Learning Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) is important for managing financial risks effectively. Existing approaches with limited parameters are vulnerable to model misspecification in the era of big data. To address this limitation, we propose a large tail risk model, the retrieval-enhanced self-grouping autoencoder (ReSGA), which is designed with millions of parameters to exploit the rich cross-sectional dependence and long-term temporal dynamics of assets using their characteristics. Applied to monthly US equity returns from 1926 to 2023 with 153 firm characteristics, ReSGA outperforms twelve econometric and machine learning competitors in terms of out-of-sample loss and statistical backtesting. In addition, its forecast advantages can translate into significant economic gains from long-short decile portfolios that are constructed by a new size-enhanced left-side momentum strategy. To clarify the role of complexity, we further conduct a systematic scaling analysis and demonstrate that improvements in joint VaR-ES forecasting are primarily driven by data complexity rather than model complexity. Finally, our analyses of group-importance and transfer-learning exhibit the interpretability and cross-market generalizability of ReSGA.

Yichi Zhang, Ke Zhu, Zhoufan Zhu

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong · Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University, China · Department of Finance, School of Economics, Xiamen University, China

Quantitative Finance Autoencoders Probabilistic Forecasting Financial Time Series

Jun 2, 2026cs.AI

Hedge-Bench: Benchmarking Agents on Hard, Realistic Tasks Pertaining to Financial Reasoning

AI agents can increasingly handle the mechanical tasks of financial analysis: retrieving documents, calculating formulas, updating spreadsheets. The harder, more valuable challenge is reasoning through the open-ended questions that define expert Analyst work. Existing benchmarks do not capture this class of problem, and those that attempt to evaluate open-ended reasoning rely on model-judged outputs that introduce noise and circularity. We present Hedge-Bench 1.0: a benchmark of 102 actual, on-the-job tasks grounded in the explicit reasoning traces of professional hedge fund analysts working with relevant information sources. This approach enables deterministic grading against verified expert steps. Frontier models and agents score below 16% on the benchmark. We publish the dataset and evaluation harness at github.com/Trata-Inc/trata-hedge-bench.

Eric Cho, Shawn Huang, Alice Lu +1

1Trata · 2Brigham Young University · 3Osmosis

Quantitative Finance AI Agent Evaluation AI Agent Benchmarks Finance

Jun 2, 2026cs.AI

Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards and LLM Oversight for Financial Decision-Making

Financial decision-making tasks such as stock recommendation and portfolio allocation typically estimate future return and risk and then select trades or allocations for an investor, and the chosen optimization objective often determines realized performance. However, because market conditions evolve over time, a fixed objective can be suboptimal across regimes, while regime-switching pipelines that rely on latent regime estimates can be noisy or delayed and frequent switching can increase turnover and operational instability. In this paper, we propose DOSS (Dynamic Objective Selection with Safeguards), a learning-based selector that directly chooses the decision-relevant objective function at each time point from interpretable statistical summaries of recent returns, selecting among a small set of candidates (e.g., return-seeking, loss-averse, and risk-adjusted) without introducing intermediate regime variables. DOSS formulates objective selection as a classification problem over objectives and performs sequential updates with a rolling window to make forward-looking selections without temporal leakage, while also outputting a confidence score for each proposal. To mitigate misselection and excessive switching in deployment, DOSS applies confidence-aware gating with a fail-safe that overrides low-confidence proposals to a conservative default and enforces explicit controls tied to switching frequency. We further integrate governance by positioning a Large Language Model (LLM) as an oversight component rather than a generator of new objectives: the LLM is restricted to accept a proposed objective or override it to a predefined safe default, with deterministic rule-based constraints triggering overrides when needed.

Keigo Sakurai, Takahiro Ogawa, Miki Haseyama +2

Hokkaido University · Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd. · Kobe University +1

Quantitative Finance Sequential Decision Making Portfolio Optimization Finance Financial Decision-Making

May 29, 2026cs.CL

Point-in-Time Financial RAG with Frozen LLMs and Market-Feedback Adaptive Retrieval

Financial retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems typically rank evidence by textual relevance, but in financial markets evidence utility depends on event type, forecast horizon, and market context. We study news-triggered event-impact prediction as a point-in-time financial RAG problem. For each company-news anchor, the system retrieves financial news and SEC filing passages, appends a pre-decision market-context card, and predicts multi-horizon residual-return signals. Our method keeps the LLM frozen and adapts retrieval through an external Bayesian source memory updated from matured residual-return feedback. On a fixed 89-stock Nasdaq-oriented universe derived from the FinRL-DeepSeek/FNSPID task, using original FNSPID news and point-in-time EDGAR filing passages, Frozen Reader with Source Memory improves held-out macro-F1 from 0.438 to 0.471 and downstream portfolio Sharpe from 0.52 to 0.84 relative to Frozen Reader with No Memory. Supervised LoRA gives modest gains under static retrieval, but after source-memory adaptation, the LoRA reader does not improve over the frozen reader. These results suggest that, for financial RAG systems, learning where to retrieve can be as important as learning how to read, offering a modular route to market-feedback adaptation.

Zijie Zhao, Roy E. Welsch

Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Cambridge, MA, USA

Retrieval-Augmented Generation Quantitative Finance Financial Forecasting Temporal IR Adaptive Retrieval Finance+1

May 29, 2026econ.TH

Comparing Market Mechanism Efficiencies

We develop a game-theoretic framework that compares welfare efficiency across three market mechanisms: continuous double auctions with transparent order books (lit exchanges), opaque order books (dark pools), and periodic batch auctions. Each mechanism is modeled as a queuing system where heterogeneous traders face trade-offs between the execution price, waiting costs, and transaction costs. Our main result establishes that under moderate arrival rates and bounded adverse selection, dark pools dominate both alternatives in aggregate ex-ante welfare. Observable order books create costly strategic timing games in which traders delay or rush submissions to optimize their position in the queue, generating wasteful social waiting costs. Opaque order books eliminate these timing games through information design. We formally characterize the equilibrium strategies in each mechanism and prove the welfare ranking

W^{DARK} > W^{LIT} > W^{BATCH}

. Extensions incorporate asymmetric information and endogenous venue choice. The results demonstrate how the information structure and the discipline of the service jointly determine efficiency in strategic matching environments.

Irene Aldridge

Mechanism Design Quantitative Finance Information Design

May 27, 2026cs.AI

PortBench: A Correlation-Aware, Full-Pipeline Benchmark for LLM-Driven Portfolio Management

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance across diverse financial tasks, yet portfolio management (PM) remains poorly benchmarked. Existing benchmarks exhibit two gaps: they are often equity-only and ignore cross-asset correlations; they fail to evaluate the complete PM decision pipeline. We introduce PortBench, a benchmark spanning six heterogeneous asset classes from 2015 to 2025. PortBench comprises a static QA dataset of 6,269 questions across seven task templates and a dynamic five-stage allocation pipeline. To evaluate these layers, we introduce two metrics: a dual-layer correlation score for inter-class hedging and intra-class concentration, and CEPS, which quantifies how reasoning errors compound across pipeline stages. We further evaluate under three stress windows and three risk profiles, and support real-time evaluation to mitigate pretraining contamination on historical markets. Across ten frontier LLMs, strong financial QA performance fails to translate into superior portfolio performance: only 32.5% of 120 evaluations beat equal weighting on Sharpe across four market periods. Our source code is available at this https URL.

Yuxuan Zhao, Sijia Chen, Ningxin Su

1Yantai Research Institute of Harbin Engineering University · 2The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

LLM Evaluation Quantitative Finance LLM Decision-Making Portfolio Optimization Finance

May 26, 2026q-fin.RM

Forward-Looking Stress Testing Under Macro Scenarios: Stable SVaR Estimation Using a Hybrid GPR-HS Framework with SACS

Regulatory stress testing frameworks, including the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) and the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP), require robust Stressed Value-at-Risk (SVaR) estimation under forward-looking macroeconomic scenarios. Traditional parametric approaches often exhibit numerical instability under extreme shocks, reducing the reliability of capital projections. This paper extends the Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework of Vadrevu (2026) to forward-looking stress scenarios, demonstrating stability across three regimes: West Asia War, Climate Risk, and AI Bubble/Regulation. A key contribution is the Scenario-Averaged Covariance Stabilization (SACS) framework, which constructs stress covariance as a weighted aggregation of historical crisis regimes, providing stable and interpretable dependence structures. Stressed return paths are generated over a 252-day horizon using deterministic drift and stochastic residuals, while volatility is modeled via Gaussian Process Regression with Aggressive Noise Initialization (ANI). The framework exhibits consistent convergence across all assets and scenarios. SVaR ranges from -2.1020% to -2.2231%, with the coherence property |SES| > |SVaR| preserved. The results support GPR-HS with SACS as a stable and regulator-aligned approach for forward-looking SVaR and SES estimation in CCAR and ICAAP applications.

Ujjwala Vadrevu

Quantitative Finance Gaussian Process Regression

May 23, 2026cs.AI

Summoning the Oracle to Slay It: Mitigating Look-Ahead Bias in Financial Backtesting with Large Language Models

Backtesting large language models (LLMs) on historical financial data is unreliable because pre-training cuts off after the events happened. An LLM trained in 2024 already "knows" which way 2018-2020 stocks moved. We name this failure parametric look-ahead bias and propose FinCAD, an inference-time adaptation of Context-Aware Decoding that suppresses an LLM's memory of historical outcomes without retraining. FinCAD pairs an adversarial bias-discovery pipeline that learns a model-specific memory-activating prior prompt with an entity- and date-adaptive rule that scales the CAD strength to per-(entity, date) memorisation, so the penalty fires on memorised in-sample dates and decays to zero out-of-sample. Across five 7-14B LLMs and five mega-cap equities, FinCAD cuts in-sample backtest returns by up to -67.1% on memorised dates while leaving 2025 out-of-sample returns within $8K and Sharpe within 0.10 of baseline, and preserves general-purpose reasoning within 1.7 pts. On an eleven-model leaderboard, it raises the in-sample / out-of-sample Spearman correlation from +0.779 to +0.846, recovering rankings that genuinely predict out-of-sample performance.

Weixian Waylon Li, Mengyu Wang, Tiejun Ma

University of Edinburgh

Language Model Decoding Quantitative Finance LLM Inference Finance

May 23, 2026stat.ML

Clustering based on Stochastic Dominance with application for risk averters and risk seekers

Stochastic Dominance (SD) theory provides a rigorous framework for selecting superior assets tailored to the asset allocation needs of investors with varying risk preferences (i.e., risk-averse, risk-seeking, and risk-neutral). However, traditional stock clustering methods typically rely on geometric metrics such as Euclidean distance, which often fail to effectively capture the intrinsic risk dominance relationships among assets. To address this limitation, this paper proposes an innovative clustering analysis framework based on SD test statistics. Methodologically, this study deeply integrates SD theory with machine learning algorithms. Transcending the limitations of traditional reliance on geometric distance, we innovatively utilize test statistics from first-, second-, and third-order SD to construct a "Stochastic Dominance Coefficient Matrix." Building upon this matrix, we modify the classic K-means and Hierarchical Clustering algorithms. Specifically, we derive 12 distinct algorithm variants tailored to different orders of SD relationships. Simultaneously, we construct the SD-SC coefficient and the SD-DBI index as specialized validity indices to evaluate the clustering performance. Empirically, we analyze constituent stock data from a representative developed market (the US NASDAQ Index) and an emerging market (China's CSI 100 Index). The results verify the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. Furthermore, we apply the clustering results to the modification of the Single Index Model and the construction of Global Minimum Variance Portfolios (GMVP). The findings demonstrate that the proposed method effectively facilitates customized asset allocation for investors, holding significant theoretical value and practical implications.

Hua Li, Xue Jia, Yilin Kang +1

School of Science, Changchun University, Changchun, China. · School of Mathematics and Science, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China.

Quantitative Finance Clustering Unsupervised Clustering

May 21, 2026q-fin.TR

MadEvolve: Evolutionary Optimization of Trading Systems with Large Language Models

We explore the application of LLM-driven algorithm optimization to several common tasks in quantitative finance. MadEvolve, a general-purpose algorithm optimization framework inspired by DeepMind's Alpha-Evolve, was recently developed to optimize algorithms in computational cosmology. Here we demonstrate the utility of MadEvolve to optimize algorithmic trading strategies and alpha generation at the example of Bitcoin trading. On our simulation and backtesting setup, we achieve significant improvements on all tasks we considered, such as evolving feature sets for signal generation, optimizing separate components of the trading strategy, and jointly evolving the feature pipeline together with the execution strategy. Additionally, we compare our method to other agentic search approaches, specifically Claude Code, and carefully evaluate p-hacking probabilities on our simulation setup. Our findings strongly support the utility of AI-driven agentic and evolutionary algorithms for algorithmic trading and quantitative finance.

Yurii Kvasiuk, Tianyi Li, Owen Colegrove +1

Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin–Madison · Event Horizon Labs

Quantitative Finance Evolutionary Optimization Large Language Model-Guided Optimization Finance Algorithmic Trading

May 20, 2026q-fin.CP

Volatility Surface Reconstruction using Deep Learning under No-Arbitrage Constraints

We study the reconstruction of implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes using deep learning models under no-arbitrage constraints. We compare multiple neural architectures, including multilayer perceptrons, convolutional networks, U-Nets, variational autoencoders, and Transformer-based models against classical SVI parameterizations on option market data. Results show that Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, particularly under sparse observation regimes, while soft arbitrage penalties significantly reduce arbitrage violations with moderate impact on reconstruction error. We further analyze the trade-off between accuracy and arbitrage consistency across architectures and regularization strengths.

Pablo Rodriguez Manzi

Universidad de Buenos Aires Facultad de Ingenier´ıa

Quantitative Finance

May 19, 2026q-fin.TR

Machine Learning-Based Bitcoin Trading Under Transaction Costs: Evidence From Walk-Forward Forecasting

This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70,000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades.

Andrei Bysik, Robert Ślepaczuk

Quantitative Finance Research Group, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland · Quantitative Finance Research Group, Department of Quantitative Finance and Machine Learning, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, ul. Długa 44/50, 00-241 Warsaw, Poland

Quantitative Finance Time Series Forecasting Algorithmic Trading

May 19, 2026stat.ML

Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Diffusion Copulas

Accurately assessing financial risk requires capturing both individual asset volatility and the complex, asymmetric dependence structures that emerge during extreme market events. While modern diffusion-based models have advanced multivariate forecasting, they often suffer from a "normality bias" when trained end-to-end, sacrificing marginal calibration for joint coherence and consistently underestimating tail risk. To address this, we propose a Diffusion-Copula framework that explicitly decouples the learning of marginal distributions from their dependence structure. We employ deep Mixture Density Networks to capture heavy-tailed asset dynamics, followed by a Classification-Diffusion Copula to model the joint dependence. Applied to cryptocurrency markets, our approach demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art baselines in forecasting systemic extremes of both marginal and joint events. Crucially, we demonstrate that while baseline models classify simultaneous market crashes as statistically impossible "Black Swans" (high surprise), our framework identifies them as "Expected Crashes" (low surprise), successfully preserving the correlation structure necessary for robust risk management during contagion events.

David Huk, Dongshan Wang, Miha Bresar

Department of Statistics The University of Warwick · School of Data Science The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Copula Models Quantitative Finance Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Diffusion Models

May 19, 2026q-fin.PM

Do Better Volatility Forecasts Lead to Better Portfolios? Evidence from Graph Neural Networks

This paper tests whether graph neural networks improve realized volatility forecasts and whether those forecasts improve portfolio performance. Using weekly realized volatility for 465 S&P 500 equities from 2015-2025, Heterogeneous Autoregressive and Long Short-Term Memory baselines are compared against GraphSAGE models built on rolling correlation, sector, and Granger-causal graphs, with and without macro regime features. The empirical finding is that the model with the lowest forecast MSE, the model with the highest cross-sectional ranking accuracy, and the model with the highest portfolio Sharpe ratio are three different models. Forecast accuracy, ranking quality, and portfolio performance are related but not interchangeable objectives. Graph volatility models add value only when the portfolio rule can exploit the cross-sectional structure they encode.

Rylan Wade

University of Southern California

Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Graph Neural Networks Quantitative Finance Time Series Forecasting Portfolio Optimization

May 18, 2026stat.ML

On Stability and Decomposition of Sample Quantiles under Heavy-Tailed Distributions

We study sample quantiles of distributions indexed by estimated parameters, with a on Value-at-Risk related to linear projections of financial returns that whose underlying probability law is heavy-tailed. In this setting, the projection direction and the empirical quantile threshold are estimated from the data, so the standard Bahadur representation under a fixed distribution does not separate the distinct sources of instability. A canonical starting point is Bahadur's representation, which expresses the sample quantile through the empirical distribution function plus a remainder term \cite{bahadur1966}. Empirical-process theory provides a usable scaffolding through the mechanics of half-spaces, symmetric differences, and Glivenko--Cantelli uniform convergence. They yield stability bounds, but absorb changes in projection direction and changes in quantile threshold into a single symmetric-difference measure. Interestingly, a global uniform-convergence requirement is imposed on what is intrinsically a local quantile-stability problem. This paper introduces a Q-Q orthogonality formulation for separating projection-direction and quantile-threshold effects. The object of interest is the difference between the empirical quantile computed using the estimated projection direction and the population quantile computed at the reference projection direction. We decompose this difference into three terms,

\hat q_α(\hat w)-q_α(w_0)=D_1+D_2+D_3

. Here,

D_1

measures the population quantile movement induced by perturbing the projection direction,

D_2

measures the empirical quantile fluctuation with the projection direction held fixed, and

D_3

is the Bahadur-type remainder.

Choudur Lakshminarayan

School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology

Quantitative Finance Heavy-Tailed Distributions

May 18, 2026cs.CL

BacktestBench: Benchmarking Large Language Models for Automated Quantitative Strategy Backtesting

Quantitative backtesting is essential for evaluating trading strategies but remains hampered by high technical barriers and limited scalability. While Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a transformative path to automate this complex, interdisciplinary workflow through advanced code generation, tool usage, and agentic planning, the practical realization is significantly challenged by the current lack of a large-scale benchmark dedicated to automated quantitative backtesting, which hinders progress in this field. To bridge this critical gap, we introduce BacktestBench, the first large-scale benchmark for automated quantitative backtesting. Built from over 6 million real market records, it comprises 18,246 meticulously annotated question-answering pairs across four task categories: metrics calculation, ticker selection, strategy selection, and parameter confirmation. We also propose AutoBacktest, a robust multi-agent baseline that translates natural language strategies into reproducible backtests by coordinating a Summarizer for semantic factor extraction, a Retriever for validated SQL generation, and a Coder for Python backtesting implementation. Our evaluation on 23 mainstream LLMs, complemented by targeted ablations, identifies key factors that influence end-to-end performance and highlights the importance of grounded verification and standardized indicator representations.

Zhensheng Wang, Wenmian Yang, Qingtai Wu +3

Beijing Normal University Beijing, China · Beijing Normal University Zhuhai, China · Elmleaf Ltd. Shanghai, China

Quantitative Finance Benchmark Design AI Agent Benchmarks Multi-Agent LLMs

May 18, 2026q-fin.TR

Sequential Structure in Intraday Futures Data: LSTM vs Gradient Boosting on MNQ

This paper compares gradient boosting and long short-term memory (LSTM) architectures for intraday directional prediction in Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ). Motivated by recent foundation-model research on financial candlestick data, including the Kronos architecture, we test whether five-minute OHLCV bar sequences contain exploitable sequential predictive structure at the scale of a single instrument dataset. Using 944 trading days from 2021-2025, four model configurations are evaluated under strict expanding-window walk-forward validation across three out-of-sample periods. The target variable is whether the session close exceeds the 10:30 AM open by more than ten points. No configuration produces statistically significant out-of-sample accuracy above the 51.8% base rate. Combined OOS accuracies range from 50.00% to 50.89% across gradient boosting variants, while the LSTM achieves 50.59%. Permutation tests yield p-values of 0.135 for the best gradient boosting model and 0.515 for the LSTM, indicating no statistically significant predictive edge. Feature importance instability across walk-forward folds suggests noise fitting rather than stable structural signal capture. The results indicate that four years of single-instrument five-minute OHLCV data are insufficient for reliable sequential ML-based intraday forecasting. The primary contribution is a documented evaluation of a Kronos-inspired architecture on a constrained real-world dataset, providing an empirical lower bound on data scale requirements for sequential financial ML.

Mathias Mesfin

Independent Researcher

Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees Quantitative Finance Time Series Forecasting Recurrent Neural Networks Financial Time Series

May 17, 2026q-fin.RM

A Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression Framework for Stable Volatility-Covariance Estimation: Evidence from Global Equity Indices

Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). Traditional econometric models, including GARCH-family and Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) approaches, suffer from parametric rigidity, distributional assumptions, and numerical instability under stress, leading to systematic underestimation of tail risk. This paper proposes and validates a novel Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression-Historical Simulation (GPR-HS) framework for estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across a diversified portfolio of seven major global equity indices. The framework decouples the VCV estimation problem: individual asset volatilities are modelled dynamically using Univariate GPR with a Matern 5/2 kernel, while inter-asset correlations are estimated via stable historical covariance. A key methodological contribution is the Aggressive Noise Initialization (ANI) strategy, which sets the initial White Noise kernel variance equal to the empirical variance of the training returns, ensuring Gram matrix positive-definiteness, regularization, and conservative, regulatory-compliant forecasts. Evaluated using an expanding window forward-chaining cross-validation scheme over June 2020 -June 2025, the GPR-HS framework achieves regulatory compliance in the majority of test splits; including a 100% ES pass rate at the portfolio level, while outperforming the static Historical VaR benchmark in 71.4% of univariate cases by Quadratic Loss and 100% of cases by violation count.

Ujjwala Vadrevu

Quantitative Finance Financial Time Series Covariance Estimation Gaussian Process Regression

May 16, 2026q-fin.PM

Financially Guided Deep Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization in real-world financial markets is notoriously difficult due to non-stationarity, noisy data, and high transaction costs. Standard predict-then-optimize methods first forecast returns and then solve for weights, compounding prediction errors and often failing under regime shifts. We propose an end-to-end framework that directly optimizes differentiable surrogates of key financial metrics (Sharpe ratio, Omega ratio, Conditional Value-at-Risk, and risk parity), allowing neural networks to learn portfolio weights via backpropagation. Our expanding-window walk-forward procedure, applied to 50 S&P 500 stocks from 2007 to 2023, incorporates realistic bid-ask spread costs and rebalances quarterly. On the challenging out-of-sample test period (2022-2023), the best model, an AttentionLSTM with the Omega-CVaR-RiskParity loss, achieves an annualized Sharpe of 0.29 and a total compounded return of +7.86%, while the S&P 500 delivers -4.52% total compounded return and an annualized Sharpe of -0.02. This outperforms the S&P 500 by 12.38 percentage points, while keeping tail risk (CVaR) nearly unchanged. The framework outperforms the equal-weight portfolio, S&P 500, and traditional methods (MVP, HRP, NCO, ERC), demonstrating that embedding financial objectives directly into model training yields robust, economically meaningful outperformance even in adverse market conditions.

Rahul Fernandes, Travis Desell

Department of Software Engineering Rochester Institute of Technology Rochester, New York, USA

Quantitative Finance Portfolio Optimization Differentiable Optimization Financial Time Series