Simulation-Based Inference

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5 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Anytime-valid simulation-based hypothesis testing
Oct 6, 2026Patrick Forré, Lydia BrennerSimulation-Based Inference Sequential Hypothesis Testing
University of Amsterdam · Nikhef
Spectra: Exact Component Transport for Test-Time Prior Adaptation in Simulation-Based Inference
Oct 6, 2026Xin Zhao, Nico Scherf, Robert Trampel +2Simulation-Based Inference Test-Time Adaptation
Department of Neurophysics, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany · International Max Planck Research School on Cognitive NeuroImaging, Leipzig, Germany · Methods and Development Group Neural Data Science and Statistical Computing, Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences, Leipzig, Germany +3
A perspective note on likelihood approximation and inference for complex simulation models using a chain of aggregated normalizing flows
Oct 5, 2026Getachew K BefekaduSimulation-Based Inference Surrogate Modeling
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.
Mitigating Representation Gaps in Amortized Bayesian Inference with Auxiliary Supervision
Sep 30, 2026Hans Olischläger, Svenja Jedhoff, Šimon Kucharský +3Simulation-Based Inference Amortized Inference
Department of Statistics, TU Dortmund University, Germany · Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Simulation-Based Quantum System Inference with Neural Posterior Estimation
Sep 28, 2026Hang Zou, Anton Frisk Kockum, Martin Rahm +1Simulation-Based Inference Neural Posterior Estimation
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Microtechnology and Nanoscience, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden · Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, 41296 Gothenburg, Sweden
Testing, not presuming, adequacy: calibrating generative social simulators against emergent network structure
Sep 21, 2026Tengfei Shao, Chao Li, Xu Wang +1Simulation-Based Inference Computational Social Science
Global Education Center, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan · School of Informatics, Gunma University, Gunma, Japan
Likelihood-free inference with nuisance parameters through normalizing flows
Sep 9, 2026Phil AsshetonSimulation-Based Inference Normalizing Flows
statsadvice.com, Berlin, Germany.
Inductive Biases in Field-Level Cosmological Inference from Galaxy Catalogs
Sep 8, 2026James O. Baldwin, Shy Genel, Francisco Villaescusa-NavarroSimulation-Based Inference Graph Neural Networks
City University of New York Graduate Center, 365 5th Ave, New York, NY 10016 · Center for Computational Astrophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA · Columbia Astrophysics Laboratory, Columbia University, 550 West 120th Street, New York, NY 10027, USA +1
Source Distribution Estimation by Posterior Averaging
Sep 2, 2026Trung-Dung Hoang, Lisa M. KochSimulation-Based Inference Density Estimation
Department of Digital Medicine, University of Bern, Switzerland · Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism UDEM, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Switzerland · Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences (GCB), University of Bern, Switzerland +1
Predicting blood clot growth from sparse post-onset measurements with latent neural differential equations
Aug 8, 2026Lennon J. Shikhman, Ying Qian, He LiSimulation-Based Inference Probabilistic Forecasting
School of Interactive Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 · Department of Mathematics and Systems Engineering, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901 · School of Chemical, Materials and Biomedical Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30605
Private Generative Bootstrap via Blocking
Aug 3, 2026Jinwon Sohn, Veronika RočkováSimulation-Based Inference Uncertainty Quantification
Booth School of Business, University of Chicago
HyperODE: Zero-Shot Surrogate for Simulation and Inference of Dynamical Systems
Aug 1, 2026Ajitesh SrivastavaNeural Surrogate Modeling Zero-Shot Learning
Northeastern University
Simulation-based parameter estimation via a combination of embedded normalizing flows and implied empirical probabilities under moment restrictions
Jul 27, 2026Getachew K. BefekaduSimulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL & COMPUTER ENGINEERING, COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING, PHYSICS, AND COMPUTING, THE CATHOLIC UNIVERSITY OF AMERICA, WASHINGTON, DC 20064, USA.
Simulation-Based Empirical Bayes
Jul 23, 2026Xinwei Shen, Diana Cai, Cheng Zhang +1Simulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
Department of Statistics University of Washington · Department of Computer Science Cornell University · School of Mathematical Sciences and Center for Statistical Science Peking University +1
An Introduction to Bayesian and Frequentist Simulation-Based Inference with Machine Learning
Jul 23, 2026Maximilian Dax, Theo Heimel, Gilles LouppeSimulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
ELLIS Institute Tübingen, Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems, Tübingen AI Center, Tübingen, Germany · CP3, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium · Montefiore Institute, University of Liège, Belgium
Program Synthesis for Simulation-Based Inference: Joint Model Selection and Parameter Estimation
Jul 20, 2026Siddharth Mishra-SharmaSimulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
Faculty of Computing & Data Sciences Boston University · Boston University
BayesContact: Uncertain Pose Estimation via Visuo-Tactile Proposals and Simulation-based Inference
Jul 17, 2026Aditya Kamireddypalli, Matias Mattamala, Joao Moura +3Simulation-Based Inference Contact-Rich Robotic Manipulation
School of Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Scotland. · Department of Mechanical and Mechatronics Engineering, University of Waterloo, Canada.
Neural Posterior Estimation for Inferring Weak Lensing Shear
Jul 10, 2026Tim White, Dingrui Tao, Camille Avestruz +2Simulation-Based Inference Neural Posterior Estimation
Department of Statistics, University of Michigan · Department of Physics, University of Michigan
FUSE: FK-Steered Multi-Modal Flow Matching for Efficient Simulation-Based Posterior Estimation
Jul 6, 2026Weichen Qin, Yufan Xie, Peihao Wang +8Flow Matching Simulation-Based Inference
ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA · Center for Gravitational Wave Experiment, National Microgravity Laboratory, Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China +2
Full Bayesian Reinforcement Learning via LF-IBIS
Jul 2, 2026Stefano Masini, Cecilia Viscardi, Michela BacciniSimulation-Based Inference Reinforcement Learning
Department of Computer Science, University of Pisa, Italy · Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno, Italy · Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications ”G.Parenti”, University of Florence, Italy
The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference
Jun 26, 2026Pablo Montero-Manso, Marcel ScharthSimulation-Based Inference Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
University of Sydney Business School, Australia
Simulation-based inference for rapid Bayesian parameter estimation in epidemiological models: a comparison with MCMC
Jun 25, 2026Alina Bazarova, Johann Fredrik Jadebeck, Henrik Zunker +5Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Inference
Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich Supercomputing Centre, Jülich, Germany · Helmholtz AI, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich, Institute of Bio- and Geosciences, Jülich, Germany +3
Solving Inverse Problems of Chaotic Systems with Bidirectional Conditional Flow Matching
Jun 23, 2026Peiyan Hu, Jian Zhang, Jiashu Pan +6Simulation-Based Inference Conditional Flow Matching
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China. · Department of Artificial Intelligence, School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310030, China. · School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China. +4
The Degeneracy Distillery
Jun 22, 2026T. Lucas Makinen, Deaglan J. Bartlett, Niall Jeffrey +1Simulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Rd, Cambridge CB3 0WA, United Kingdom · Imperial Centre for Inference and Cosmology (ICIC), Imperial College London, Prince Consort Road, London SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom · Astrophysics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3RH, United Kingdom +5
Field-level weak lensing cosmology with $60$ simulations using multifidelity simulation-based inference
Jun 22, 2026Alex A. Saoulis, Kiyam Lin, Niall Jeffrey +5Simulation-Based Inference
Department of Physics & Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom · Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, 5 Gower Place, London, WC1E 6BS, United Kingdom · Department of Physics & King’s Institute for Artificial Intelligence, King’s College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, United Kingdom +3
MA-SBI: Misspecification-Aware Simulation-Based Inference via Side-Channel Guidance
Jun 15, 2026Arunkumar V, Manoranjan Gandhudi, Gangadharan G. R. +2Simulation-Based Inference Parameter Estimation
University College of Engineering, Anna University Tiruchirappalli, Tamil Nadu, India · Central University of Karnataka, India · National Institute of Technology Tiruchirappalli, India +1
Learning the Universe: Posterior Reliability of Neural Generative Models in High-Dimensional Field-Level Inference of Cosmic Initial Conditions
Jun 8, 2026Ludvig Doeser, Jens JascheSimulation-Based Inference Normalizing Flows
The Oskar Klein Centre, Department of Physics, Stockholm University, AlbaNova University Centre, SE 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden · Center for Computational Astrophysics, Flatiron Institute, 162 5th Avenue, New York, NY 10010, USA
Bridged SBI: Correcting Biased Low-Fidelity Posteriors for Cost-Efficient High-Fidelity Inference
Jun 8, 2026Gahee Kim, Yuki Kadokawa, Sandro M. Alcantara Tacora +5Simulation-Based Inference Robotics Simulation
NARA INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Nara, Japan · PUBLIC WORKS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, Ibaraki, Japan
Bandit Simulation for Average Reward Inference
May 30, 2026Samya Praharaj, Chih-Yu Chang, Koulik Khamaru +1Multi-Armed Bandits Simulation-Based Inference
Rutgers University · Imperial College London
21cmEMUv3: a hybrid diffusion-LSTM emulator of 21cmFAST summary observables
May 29, 2026Daniela Breitman, Andrei Mesinger, Steven G. Murray +2Simulation-Based Inference AI for Science
Research Center for the Early Universe, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan · Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo, Tokyo 133-0033, Japan · Scuola Normale Superiore (SNS), Piazza dei Cavalieri 7, Pisa, PI, 56125, Italy +7

Oct 6, 2026, stat.MLJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Anytime-valid simulation-based hypothesis testing

Patrick Forré, Lydia Brenner

University of Amsterdam · Nikhef

Simulation-Based Inference Sequential Hypothesis Testing

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For a given data distribution

(X_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}} \sim Q

i.i.d., we investigate the hypothesis testing problem:

H_0: Q = P_0

vs.

H_1: Q = P_1

, for two different model probability distributions

P_0

and

P_1

. In contrast to the standard setting, where analytic densities

p_0

and

p_1

are given, here, we consider the density-free setting, where we only have access to i.i.d. simulations

(Z^0_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}} \sim P_0

and

(Z^1_t)_{t \in \mathbb{N}} \sim P_1

. For this simulation-based hypothesis testing setting, we construct an e-test martingale, resulting in a sequential test with anytime-valid type-I error guarantees, approximate growth optimality, geometrically decaying type-II error bounds, and asymptotic power one. Most ingredients used in our constructions are variants of well known concepts. The value of this paper lies in the compact presentation of an effective, anytime-valid solution for the density-free simulation-based sequential hypothesis testing case.

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