Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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39 papers in the last four weeks, up 290% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?
Aug 9, 2026Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. BarnesTime Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Boston University, Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences
FreCast: Refining Radar Echo Intensity via Phase-Preserving Amplitude Residual Diffusion for Precipitation Nowcasting
Aug 9, 2026Heping Fang, Zihuai Yin, Kaicheng Mao +2Precipitation Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China · Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Brain-Inspired Intelligent Computation, Department of Computer Science and Engineering and the Department of Statistics and Data Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
Tropical Cyclone Forecasting via Latent Rectified Flow using Satellite Imagery and Atmospheric Fields
Aug 8, 2026Meheru Zannat, Sk. Md. Masudul AhsanRectified Flow Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Khulna University of Engineering & Technology Khulna 9203, Bangladesh
HeatCast: A Benchmark for Neighborhood-Scale LST Forecasting across 124 U.S. Cities
Aug 7, 2026Jesus Guerrero, Isaac Corley, Leon Najafirad +2Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Texas at San Antonio · San Antonio, TX, USA · Taylor Geospatial +1
Timestep-Conditioned Transformers for Global Weather Forecasting
Aug 6, 2026Sam Levang, Fran Bartolic, Ty Dickinson +3Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Salient
Dense-Cast: A lightweight ensemble of deep learning architectures for precipitation nowcasting
Aug 6, 2026Gourav Jyoti Kalita, Hidam Kumarjit SinghPrecipitation Forecasting Deep Ensembles
Department of Electronics and Communication Technology, Gauhati University, Guwahati-781014, Assam, India
Predicting Brain Morphometry with MT-GNN: Mesh Evolution in Continuous Time with Graph-Based Metric Tensor Embeddings
Aug 5, 2026Hao Ding, Daniel Semchin, Paul M. Thompson +1Graph Neural Networks Longitudinal Medical Image Analysis
Illinois Institute of Technology · University of Southern California
Multimodal Spatiotemporal Atmospheric Data Assimilation with Latent Video Flow-matching
Aug 5, 2026Dibyajyoti Chakraborty, Romit MaulikData Assimilation Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Information Sciences and Technology The Pennsylvania State University University Park, Pennsylvania · School of Mechanical Engineering Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana
Multi-Source Dynamic Graph Learning for Compound-Flood Forecasting in Managed Coastal Systems
Aug 3, 2026Liangjun You, Min Wu, Orlando Woods +1Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Dynamic Graph Learning
City University of Hong Kong (Dongguan) China · A*STAR Singapore · Singapore Management University Singapore
Leveraging AI for fine-grained food safety risk forecasting in sparse data conditions
Aug 3, 2026Dongqi Wang, Weiwei Chen, Han Zhou +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Management, Zhejiang University · Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Decision Intelligence, Zhejiang University · Department of Supply Chain Management, Rutgers University
QWRF-Net: A Quantum-Wavelet Framework with Rectified Flow for Short-Term Precipitation Nowcasting
Aug 3, 2026Zhuo Wang, Chaorong Li, Wenjie Luo +1Precipitation Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
School of Computer Science and Technology (School of Artificial Intelligence), Yibin University, Yibin, 644000, Sichuan, China · College of Computer Science and Engineering, Chongqing University of Technology, Chongqing, 400054, China
A Sequence-to-Sequence ConvLSTM Approach for Leaf Area Index Forecasting over the South-Central United States
Aug 1, 2026Zhixing Ruan, Lixin LuTime Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
Geometry-aware Incremental Neural Operator for Long-Horizon PDE prediction
Jul 31, 2026Jiaquan Zhang, Shuxu Chen, Haifan Meng +6PDE Surrogate Modeling PDE Operator Learning
School of Information and Software Engineering, UESTC · Electronics and Information Convergence Engineering, KHU · School of Computer Science and Engineering, UESTC +4
Deep Learning for Accelerated Long-Horizon Forecasting of Multicomponent Multiphase Microstructure Evolution in High-Entropy Alloys
Jul 30, 2026Hamidreza Razavi, Nele MoelansNeural Surrogate Modeling Materials Science
Department of Materials Engineering, KU Leuven2026 Kasteelpark Arenberg 44 Bus 2450, 3001 Leuven, Belgium
Skillful forecasting of offshore winds from satellite scatterometer constellations
Jul 29, 2026Francesco Pinto, Luca Lanzilao, Paco Lopez Dekker +1Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands · School of Engineering and Computer Science, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Quellgasse 21, 2501, Biel, Switzerland
Hierarchical Spatio-Temporal Transformer for Coherent Emergency Department Forecasting
Jul 29, 2026Filipa Lino, Bárbara Tavares, Carlos Santiago +2Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Institute for Systems and Robotics, LARSyS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Portugal · NOVA School of Science and Technology, Caparica, Portugal
Benchmarking ConvLSTM for One-Day-Ahead IMDAA Rainfall-Field Prediction across Four Indian Cities
Jul 29, 2026Tanmay Ghosh, Shaurabh Anand, Rakesh Gomaji Nannewar +1Convolutional RNNs Precipitation Forecasting
National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru, India. · School of Development, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, India. · Complex Systems Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bengaluru, India.
Neural Architecture Search for Traffic Prediction: A Survey of Methods, Challenges, and Future Directions
Jul 29, 2026Truong Giang Vu, Li Yang, Richard W. PazziIntelligent Transportation Systems Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Faculty of Business & IT Ontario Tech University Oshawa, Canada
A2TTA: Anchored-and-Agile Test-Time Adaptation for Evolving Traffic Sensor Networks
Jul 28, 2026Du Yin, Xiachong Lin, Yue Tan +4Intelligent Transportation Systems Continual Test-Time Adaptation
University of New South Wales · Sydney, NSW, Australia · Griffith University +7
InterOCF: Spatio-Temporal 2D-3D Interaction for Camera-Only 4D Occupancy Forecasting
Jul 27, 2026Qi Zhang, Xinquan Yu, Kaiyi Zhang +13D Occupancy Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting
College of Computer Science and Software Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China.
Frequency-Based Reservoir computing
Jul 27, 2026Arthur S PowanweFrequency-Domain Feature Learning Reservoir Computing
Department of Mathematics, Western University, London, ON, Canada
Every Client Is an Environment: Federated De-confounding for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Jul 27, 2026Qingxiang Liu, Anqi Liang, Heng Wang +1Domain Generalization Causal Inference
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · Harbin Engineering University
Forecasting the Emergence and Evolution of Crash Hotspots: A Unified Deep Learning Framework for Proactive Traffic Safety
Jul 27, 2026Jingwen Zhu, Keshu Wu, Pei Li +3Intelligent Transportation Systems Traffic Accident Anticipation
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI, United States · Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States · Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States
HydroAgent: Formalizing Forecaster Expertise into Skill-Orchestrated Flood Forecasting Workflows
Jul 27, 2026Qingyi Yang, Siqian Qiu, Bing Li +20Agentic Workflows Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering (D.I.C.A.), Politecnico di Milano, 20133 Milano MI, Italy · College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, 443002 Yichang, China · 3Independent Researcher, Shandong, 252300, China +16
A Controlled Visual-Backbone Benchmark for Multimodal Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting
Jul 26, 2026Oshadha Samarakoon, Dushan Herath, Ishara Ranmandala +4Vision Transformer Time Series Forecasting
Dept. of EEE, University of Peradeniya · Peradeniya, Sri Lanka · MARC, University of Peradeniya
Context-Aware Concept Distillation for Trustworthy Flood Prediction
Jul 25, 2026Eli Levinkopf, Efrat Morin, Claudia V. GoldmanNeural Surrogate Modeling Explainable Artificial Intelligence
School of Computer Science and Engineering, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel · Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel · Hebrew University Business School, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
Forecasting the Number of Harvest-ready Fruits of Sweet Peppers Using Multimodal Time-Series Data
Jul 22, 2026Enrico Pallotta, Mohamed Farag, Esra Guclu +3Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Plant Phenotyping
University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany · Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Bonn, Germany · CSIRO, Pullenvale, Australia
Towards Reliable Zero-Shot Crowd Forecasting: Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Special Event Pedestrian Forecasting
Jul 20, 2026Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Tina Comes +1Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Department of Transport & Planning, Delft, The Netherlands. · Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Technology, Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands. · German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures, Sankt Augustin, Germany.
MambaLSTM: A Spatio-Temporal Framework for Enhanced Traffic Accident Risk Prediction
Jul 20, 2026Zhen Yu, Yachao Yuan, Zixiang Peng +2Traffic Accident Anticipation Long Short-Term Memory Networks
School of Future Science and Engineering, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · Key Laboratory of General Artificial Intelligence and Large Models in Provincial Universities, Soochow University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · College of Computing and Intelligent Systems, University of Khorfakkan, Sharjah, UAE
Fourier Geometric Wind Power Forecasting with Numerical Weather Prediction
Jul 19, 2026Shiyuan Piao, Fan Zehui, Yang Liu +4Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Tsinghua University Goldwind Science and Technology Co.,Ltd

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Do AI Forecast Ensembles Sample the Correct Conditional Distribution?

Lucas J. Howard, Elizabeth A. Barnes

Boston University, Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences

Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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Ensemble forecasting aims to sample the conditional distribution of outcomes; whether AI forecast ensembles do this correctly in a joint sense remains largely untested. We train a diffusion model for probabilistic subseasonal coastal sea level forecasts at eight US East Coast tide gauge stations, with sea level derived from reanalysis, and find that marginal and joint forecast quality decouple: positive skill at every station and lead time marginally, while joint spatial structure is worse than climatological draws. A shuffle-based permutation decomposition reveals this failure is invisible to the energy score but detected by the variogram score. Lorenz-96 experiments across 0.7-170 equivalent years show the gap persists regardless of training volume and is reproduced by a linear baseline, indicating structural inadequacy of the learned distribution. A dynamical ensemble does not replicate the failure while a deterministic emulator does, suggesting it is specific to learned emulators rather than ensemble forecasting generally.

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