Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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38 papers in the last four weeks, up 280% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 274

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WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting
Oct 7, 2026Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang +3Weather Forecasting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
Prediction-powered inference for time series across space
Oct 6, 2026Shahzar Rizvi, David Burt, Vishwak Srinivasan +3Spatiotemporal Forecasting Prediction-Powered Inference
MIT LIDS · UMass Amherst · Stanford University +1
Towards Explainable Benchmarking for Data-driven Post-Wildfire Debris Flow Prediction
Oct 5, 2026Zhisheng Qi, Li Zhu, Utkarsh Sahu +3Perturbation-Based Feature Attribution Forecasting Benchmarks
University of Georgia Athens, Georgia, USA · University of Oregon Eugene, Oregon, USA
Can LLM-assisted regularization increase forecast accuracy for migration flows in low data regimes?
Oct 5, 2026Nathaniel T. Hindman, Fabricio MuraiTime Series Forecasting LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting
Artificial Intelligence Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester, Massachusetts · Data Science Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester, Massachusetts
WaveGSSM: Graph Wave State Space Models for Propagating Spatio-Temporal Patterns
Oct 5, 2026Junyou Zhu, Fenying Cai, Ping Xiong +5Spatiotemporal Forecasting State Space Models
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany · Machine Learning Group, Technical University of Berlin, Germany · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois at Chicago, USA +2
Skillful Data-Driven Subseasonal Soil Moisture Forecasting: Prospects and Limits for Flash Drought Prediction
Oct 5, 2026Noelia Otero, Atahan Özer, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Applied Machine Learning Group, Fraunhofer Institute for Telecommunications, Heinrich Hertz Institute, Berlin, Germany · Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (UC3M), Madrid, Spain
Planetary Geospatial Foundation Models: A New Paradigm for Global Public Health
Oct 5, 2026Arbaaz Muslim, Aviv Slobodkin, Katherine Wheeler-Martin +35Epidemic Forecasting Geospatial Foundation Models
Google, Mountain View, CA, USA · Department of Population Health, NYU Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA · Center for Child Health Services Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, NY, USA +14
Physics-Refined Spatiotemporal Forecasting on Open-Boundary Hydrologic Graphs
Oct 1, 2026Haoyang Jiang, Zhengui Wang, Shenghan Gao +3Spatiotemporal Forecasting Physics-Informed GNNs
William & Mary, Williamsburg, VA, USA · Virginia Institute of Marine Science, William & Mary, Gloucester Point, VA, USA · Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, FL, USA
FORTE: Forecasting Occupancy for Spatiotemporal Risk-Aware Planning in Dynamic Environments
Sep 30, 2026Hahjin Lee, Young J. KimRobot Navigation Safe Motion Planning
Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Ewha Womans University in Korea
STCFormer: Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Modeling with Dynamic Cluster Transformer for Station-based Weather Forecasting
Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Haixin Xie, Mingyang Wang +5Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Clustering
Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration · Hunan Provincial Meteorological Bureau
M $^2$ Weather: A Benchmark for Joint Multi-Station and Multi-Variable Weather Forecasting
Sep 30, 2026Rongwen Li, Xiao Wang, Mingyang Wang +4Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks
Hunan University · China Meteorological Administration
C-STRIDE: An Observation-Driven AI Digital Twin for Predicting Basin-Wide Flood Fields from Sparse Stream-Gauge Histories
Sep 30, 2026Yanjie Tong, Phillip Si, Yuan Qiu +1Surrogate Modeling Flood Inundation Mapping
School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 756 West Peachtree Street Northwest, Atlanta, 30308, GA, USA
PrecipJEPA: JEPA-Regularized Future-State Prediction with Motion-Source Rendering for Precipitation Nowcasting
Sep 30, 2026Yufeng Zhu, Dan Niu, Qiliang Wu +4Precipitation Forecasting Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture
Department of Automation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
FlapKAD: A Simulation Dataset of Coupled Wing Kinematics and Aerodynamic Dynamics for Flapping-Wing Aerial Vehicles
Sep 30, 2026Haichuan LiAerial Robotics Vehicle Dynamics
University of Turku
An Input-Frugal Deep Learning Framework for Weather-Driven National Crop-Yield Forecasting: A Case Study of Brazilian Soybean
Sep 29, 2026Fernando Dupin da Cunha Mello, Prashant Kumar, Erick G. Sperandio NascimentoMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Stricto Sensu Department, SENAI CIMATEC University, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil · Global Centre for Clean Air Research · Institute for Sustainability, University of Surrey, Guildford, GU2 7XH, United Kingdom +1
GRFBrain: Graph-Structured Rectified Flows for EEG Dynamic Modeling
Sep 29, 2026Haohui Jia, Zheng Chen, Jathurshan Pradeepkumar +4Electroencephalography Functional Connectivity
Faculty of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University, Japan · SANKEN, The University of Osaka, Japan · Department of Computer Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA +1
NowcastDiT: Diffusion Transformers are Effective Precipitation Nowcasters
Sep 29, 2026Haoran Xu, Xingzhuo Guo, Yuchen Zhang +3Precipitation Forecasting Diffusion Transformer
School of Software, BNRist, Tsinghua University, China
PyroStack: A Multi-Band Spatio-Temporal Sub-Daily Dataset for Wildfires in the United States
Sep 28, 2026Arya Kondur, Giosue Migliorini, Cameron Schmitt +14Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA +6
AdaST: Adaptive Coupling for Spatial-Temporal Forecasting
Sep 28, 2026Zhenyu Lei, Chenghao Liu, Yushun Dong +2Adaptive Model Routing Spatiotemporal Forecasting
University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA, USA · Datadog Paris, France · Florida State University Tallahassee, FL, USA +1
Graph-Based Learning for Multi-Horizon Martian Atmospheric Forecasting
Sep 28, 2026Gary Myler, James Holmes, Manish Patel +1Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting
The Open University, UK.
Addressing Spatial Indistinguishability in Spatiotemporal Prediction via Optimal Transport-Guided Masking
Sep 28, 2026Guangyu Wang, Jiawei TongSelf-Supervised Time Series Representation Learning Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian, Liaoning, China · Institute of Systems, Molecular & Integrative Biology, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
SurgGMF: Fully Causal Gaussian Motion Forecasting for Anticipatory Surgical Scene Rendering
Sep 28, 2026Jingqian Sun, Yichao Tang3D Gaussian Splatting Neural Rendering
Shanghai Research Institute for Intelligent Autonomous Systems, Tongji University, Shanghai, China · School of Mechanical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai Innovation Institute, Shanghai, China
Evaluating Dynamical Fidelity through Predictive Structure in Physical Representations
Sep 28, 2026Oskar Bohn Lassen, Joao Paulo de Souza Boger, Simon Driscoll +4Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting
Department of Technology, Management, and Economics Technical University of Denmark · Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics University of Cambridge · Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter
LTV-CTDNet: Compositional Turning Decomposition for Short-Term Turning-Movement Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Md Atiqur Rahman Mallick, Kamrul Hasan, Robert T. WhiteTime Series Forecasting Traffic Flow Estimation
Graduate Student, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · Assistant Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, 37209 · TSMO Manager Nashville Department of Transportation & Multimodal Infrastructure Nashville, TN 37210
Diffusion-Based Rollouts as a Stabilization Mechanism for Long-Horizon Environmental Forecasting
Sep 27, 2026Marina Vicens-Miquel, Amy McGovern, Aaron J. Hill +2Precipitation Forecasting Long-Term Time Series Forecasting
University of Oklahoma, School of Meteorology, Norman, Oklahoma · University of Oklahoma, School of Computer Science, Norman, Oklahoma · NSF AI Institute for Research on Trustworthy AI in Weather, Climate, and Coastal Oceanography, Norman, Oklahoma +2
HClimRep-Ocean: A Global Ocean Emulator on an Unstructured Mesh
Sep 23, 2026Kacper Nowak, Aleksei Koldunov, Nikolay Koldunov +7Neural Surrogate Modeling Climate Modeling
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany · Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Jülich Supercomputing Center, Jülich, Germany · Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany +3
Disentangling Heterogeneous Traffic Dynamics for Multi-Step Traffic Forecasting via Adaptive Spectral Decomposition
Sep 22, 2026Zijun Huang, Chenrui Fu, Wenhao Wang +3Time Series Decomposition Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University · Dalian Maritime University · National Chung Hsing University
Spatiotemporal Kronecker Covariance Neural Networks
Sep 21, 2026Andrea Cavallo, Athanasios Georgoutsos, Elvin IsufiMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Temporal GNNs
Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
Taking a Second Look: Correcting Sea Ice Forecasts with Sparse Observations
Sep 21, 2026Tianshuo Zhang, Xianglei Xing, Aowen Yang +4Data Assimilation Spatiotemporal Forecasting
College of Intelligent Systems Science and Engineering, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China
WPBench: A Comprehensive Benchmark for Wind Power Forecasting
Sep 21, 2026Yuhan Zhu, Jilin Hu, Xinying Cai +7Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Benchmark Design
School of Data Science & Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China · College of Computer Science and Technology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China · Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou, China

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WxFM-XL: Adapting Univariate Foundation Models to Multi-Station Weather Forecasting

Xiao Wang, Changjian Chen, Zhuo Tang, Rongwen Li+2

Weather Forecasting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models

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With the rise of univariate time series foundation models (e.g., Sundial, Timer), initial efforts have been made to extend them to multivariate settings. However, these models mainly focus on modeling correlations among variables. When they are applied to multi-station weather forecasting, two important factors are often overlooked: (1) the spatial information of stations, and (2) different error priors of different stations relative to the foundation model. In this paper, we propose WxFM-XL, a model for adapting univariate time series foundation models to multi-station weather forecasting. WxFM-XL introduces a cross-station error correlation prior graph to capture stationwise error priors with respect to the foundation model. Building on this, we further propose a dynamic fusion mechanism that adaptively integrates a spatial correlation graph with the error correlation prior graph. Experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms state of the art baselines.

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Latest papers 274