Uncertainty Propagation

Ask about this topic

Overview

Uncertainty propagation asks how uncertain inputs, parameters, and model predictions affect later calculations, forecasts, and decisions. Common approaches include linearization and the delta method, Monte Carlo sampling, Bayesian models, interval bounds, and learned probabilistic surrogates that carry distributions or covariances through complex systems. Applications range from scientific simulations and medical measurements to robotics and multi-stage AI systems, where benchmarks often assess calibration, coverage, sharpness, and downstream risk. A central challenge is balancing computational cost and useful precision while preserving dependencies: separately calibrated components can still produce unreliable results when their uncertainties interact.

Latest papers

CardsList

44 papers4 papers in the last four weeks, up 33% on the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

  1. Divergence is Uncertainty: A Closed-Form Posterior Covariance for Flow Matching

    May 1, 2026Jiarui Xing, Song Wang, Jian WangFlow MatchingUncertainty Quantification

    Yale University · Harvard Medical School

  2. Uncertainty Propagation in LLM-Based Systems

    Apr 26, 2026Boming Xia, Liming Zhu, Erdun Gao +3Uncertainty QuantificationLLM Uncertainty Estimation

    1Responsible AI Research (RAIR) Centre · 2Adelaide University · 3CSIRO +1

  3. Variational LSTM with Augmented Inputs: Nonlinear Response History Metamodeling with Aleatoric and Epistemic Uncertainty

    Apr 2, 2026Manisha Sapkota, Min Li, Bowei LiSurrogate ModelingUncertainty Propagation

    Department of Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering, Texas Tech University, 2500 Broadway St, Lubbock 79409, TX, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy 12180, NY, USA · National Wind Institute, Texas Tech University, 1009 Canton Ave, Lubbock 79409, TX, USA

  4. Concerning Uncertainty -- A Systematic Survey of Uncertainty-Aware XAI

    Mar 27, 2026Helena Löfström, Tuwe Löfström, Anders Hjort +1Explainable Artificial IntelligenceUncertainty Quantification

    Jönköping International Business School, Gjuterigatan 5, 553 18 Jönköping, Sweden · Jönköping School of Engineering, Gjuterigatan 5, 553 18 Jönköping, Sweden · Eiendomsverdi AS, Nedre Slottsgate 8, 0157 Oslo, Norway +2

  5. Uncertainty Quantification for Quantum Computing

    Mar 26, 2026Ryan Bennink, Olena Burkovska, Konstantin Pieper +2Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Propagation

    Quantum Information Sciences Section, Oak Ridge National Laboratory · Mathematics in Computation Section, Oak Ridge National Laboratory · Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Medellin, Colombia +1

  6. Direct Interval Propagation Methods using Neural-Network Surrogates for Uncertainty Quantification in Physical Systems Surrogate Model

    Mar 22, 2026Ghifari Adam Faza, Jolan Wauters, Fabio Cuzzolin +2Uncertainty PropagationUncertainty Quantification

    LMSD, Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Heverlee, 3001, Belgium · RAM, Department of Mechanical Engineering, KU Leuven, Brugge, 8200, Belgium · Visual Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Oxford Brookes University, Oxford, UK +1

  7. Comprehensive Description of Uncertainty in Measurement for Representation and Propagation with Scalable Precision

    Mar 20, 2026Ali Darijani, Jürgen Beyerer, Zahra Sadat Hajseyed Nasrollah +2Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Propagation

    Fraunhofer IOSB · KIT, IES · KIT, IIIT

  8. Predictive Uncertainty in Short-Term PV Forecasting under Missing Data: A Multiple Imputation Approach

    Mar 16, 2026Parastoo Pashmchi, Jérôme Benoit, Motonobu KanagawaSolar Power ForecastingUncertainty Propagation

    SAP Labs France, Mougins, France · EURECOM, Biot, France

  9. Machine Learning Argument of Latitude Error Model for LEO Satellite Orbit and Covariance Correction

    Feb 18, 2026Alex Moody, Penina Axelrad, Rebecca RussellUncertainty PropagationCovariance Estimation

    University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO · The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. Cambridge, MA

  10. The Impact of Class Uncertainty Propagation in Perception-Based Motion Planning

    Feb 17, 2026Jibran Iqbal Shah, Andrei Ivanovic, Kelly Zhu +4Autonomous Driving PlanningMotion Planning

    Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto. · Toyota Research Institute.

  11. Kalman Filtering Based Flight Management System Modeling for AAM Aircraft

    Feb 16, 2026Balram Kandoria, Aryaman Singh SamyalKalman FilteringUncertainty Quantification

    SkyGrid, Austin, TX, 78727

  12. Uncertainty Propagation for Echocardiography Clinical Metric Estimation via Contour Sampling

    Feb 18, 2025Thierry Judge, Olivier Bernard, Nicolas Duchateau +5Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Propagation

    Department of Computer Science, University of Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, Canada · INSA, Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS UMR 5220, Inserm U1206, CREATIS, Villeurbanne, France · Ultromics Ltd., Oxford, OX4 2SU, UK +1

  13. Statistical Taylor Expansion: A New and Path-Independent Method for Uncertainty Analysis

    Oct 2, 2024Chengpu WangUncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Propagation

    Grossman Street, Melville, NY 11747, USA

  14. Analytical Standard Errors for Exploratory Factor Solutions

    Nov 12, 2018Xingwei Hu, Caihong Hu, Cheng-Kuang WuUncertainty QuantificationDimensionality Reduction

    International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, 20431, USA · Zhangjiajie College, Zhangjiajie, Hunan, 427000, China · Zhejiang Industry and Trade Vocational College, Wenzhou, Zhejiang, 325700, China