Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

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Predictive UncertaintyEpistemic UncertaintyUncertainty-Aware InferenceInput UncertaintiesCalibrated UncertaintyEpistemic StanceReducible Uncertainty

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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Period ending 2026-09-07

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  1. Predictive Uncertainty for Neural CAE Surrogates

    Sep 21, 2026Kaustubh Tangsali, Mohammad Amin Nabian, Kelvin Lee +2Reliable Uncertainty Quantification

  2. Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators

    Sep 14, 2026Michael ChinConformal PredictionPartial Differential Equation Benchmarks

  3. Decision-Oriented Uncertainty Quantification for Risk Control in Earth System Spatiotemporal Foundation Models

    Sep 13, 2026Ji Lu, Huiran Duan, Bo Zhao +5Predictive UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  4. Flexible Spectral-Normalized Neural Gaussian Process for Dynamic Aperture Prediction

    Sep 8, 2026Yousra El-Bachir, Frederik Van der Veken, Davide di Croce +4Gaussian ProcessBayesian Neural Networks

  5. Risk and Anomaly Identification for Distribution Network Optimal Operation Based on Reinforcement Learning and Uncertainty Quantification

    Sep 3, 2026Ziqi ZhangReliable Uncertainty QuantificationAnomalous Frame Detection

  6. AdaptNTK: Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification and Active Learning for Neural Network Potentials

    Aug 31, 2026Prajwal Ananth, Shuwen YueInteratomic PotentialsActive Learning

  7. A Unified Perspective on Conformal Prediction and Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Optimization for Uncertainty Quantification

    Aug 30, 2026Kehan Long, Yiqi Zhao, Pol Mestres +3Conformal PredictionReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  8. PropUQ-MAS: Propagation-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Multi-Agent Systems

    Aug 22, 2026Yaokun Liu, Yifan Liu, Daniel Yue Zhang +3Multi-Agent SystemsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  9. Structure-preserving uncertainty quantification for GENERIC dynamics

    Aug 12, 2026Zequn He, Celia ReinaReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  10. Beyond Single-Turn Confidence: Trajectory-Adapted Uncertainty Quantification for LLM Agents

    Aug 12, 2026Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh ChauhanLarge Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Agents

  11. VIDS-Seg: Towards Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Pediatric Cardiac Ultrasound Segmentation

    Aug 11, 2026Paul Fischer, Ece OzkanWhole-Heart SegmentationVideo Object Segmentation

  12. Quality Diversity for Reliable Data Driven Time-Use Optimization

    Aug 5, 2026Aneta Neumann, Ty Stanford, Dorothea Dumuid +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationCode Optimization

  13. DUD: Decoupled Update Dynamics for Reliable Uncertainty Quantification in Large Language Models

    Aug 4, 2026Yixin Bu, Runze Xia, Guanyun Zou +3Large Language Model UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  14. Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models

    Aug 4, 2026Edgar Jaber, Rémy Vallot, Thibault Dairay +1Reduced-Order ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  15. Toward Uncertainty Quantification in Modern Art

    Aug 3, 2026Tirtho Roy, Ushashi Bhattacharjee, Showrav Kumar Saha +3Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationRandom

  16. TrAC: Trace-Conditioned Answer Consistency for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification in LLMs

    Aug 1, 2026Dahai Yu, Lin Jiang, Rongchao Xu +1Large Language Model UncertaintyLarge Language Model Reasoning

  17. SymboUQ: Symbolic Uncertainty Quantification for Spatial Reasoning in LLMs

    Aug 1, 2026Dahai Yu, Lin Jiang, Rongchao Xu +1Spatial ReasoningReasoning Traces

  18. GO-PRE: Goal-Oriented Next-Best-View Selection via Predictive Rendering Entropy for Active 3D Reconstruction

    Jul 31, 2026Yan Song, Zhihao Li, Chenglong Li +33D Reconstruction3D Object Understanding

  19. Structured Neural Chaos: An Adaptive Surrogate Modeling Framework for Functional Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis

    Jul 31, 2026Isabel Corona Guevara, Yeping HuSurrogate ModelsModel Sensitivity

  20. Uncertainty quantification for trustworthy deep learning: Methods and measures

    Jul 30, 2026H. Martin Gillis, Thomas TrappenbergReliable Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian Neural Networks

  21. Cost-Sensitive Conformal Prediction and Human-in-the-Loop Abstention for Imbalanced High-Stakes Decision Support: A Multi-Domain Benchmark

    Jul 29, 2026Manpreet Singh, Akshatha Srikantha, Shyamal LakhanpalFinite-Sample Coverage GuaranteesDecision Thresholds

  22. HeAD-CP: Heterophily-Aware Diffused Conformal Prediction Sets for Graph Neural Networks

    Jul 28, 2026Phan Binh Nguyen Lam, Nguyen Thai AnhGraph Neural NetworksConformal Prediction

  23. Covariance Last-Layer Ensembles: Function-Space Diversity for Efficient Uncertainty Quantification

    Jul 26, 2026H. Martin Gillis, Isaac Xu, Gabriel Spadon +1EnsembleCovariance Estimation

  24. Interval and fuzzy physics-augmented neural networks (iPANN and fPANN) for uncertainty quantification and propagation in constitutive modeling

    Jul 22, 2026Somesh Pratap Singh, Govinda Anantha Padmanabha, Jingye Tan +4Conventional Physics-Informed Neural NetworksReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  25. Good Practice Guide for quantifying uncertainties for machine learning models applied to photoplethysmography signals

    Jul 22, 2026P. Harris, C. Bench, M. Rinkevičius +6Remote PhotoplethysmographyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  26. Towards Reliable Zero-Shot Crowd Forecasting: Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Special Event Pedestrian Forecasting

    Jul 20, 2026Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Tina Comes +1Zero-Shot ForecastingPedestrian Trajectory Prediction

  27. Isotonic Conformal Prediction

    Jul 18, 2026Daniel Bensimon, Sean Xiang Yu, Eric D. Kolaczyk +1Conformal PredictionReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  28. Certifiable Safe Model-Based Reinforcement Learning with Control-Affine Dynamics Approximation

    Jul 17, 2026Hao Zhou, Yanze Zhang, Cameron Reid +1Control Barrier FunctionsScalable Robot Learning

  29. Full-data accuracy with fewer labels for training and fine-tuning machine-learning force fields

    Jul 16, 2026Sheng Bi, Yi-Ze Wang, Jun ChengActive LearningLabel-Free

  30. Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting

    Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaEnergy ForecastingSolar

  31. Uncertainty-aware damage identification in short-span bridges via physics-informed variational autoencoder

    Jul 6, 2026Ana Fernandez-Navamuel, A. Javier Omella, Diego Zamora-Sanchez +1Structural Health MonitoringVariational Autoencoder

  32. Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian

  33. Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

    Jun 25, 2026Catherine George, Alireza Javanmardi, Tijana Janjić +1Conformal PredictionData Assimilation

  34. Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets

    Jun 24, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +5Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationComputer-Use Agents

  35. Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

    Jun 23, 2026Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li +8Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationQuantile Regression

  36. The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models

    Jun 22, 2026Xiang-Jun Ou, Shuang Liang, Xin-Yu Hu +3Large Language Model UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  37. On the QUEST for Uncertainty Quantification via Highest Density Regions

    Jun 17, 2026Sam Goring, Tom Kuipers, Nicola Paoletti +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationQuantile Regression

  38. Trustworthy MRI Reconstruction via Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification with Sparsity Prior Models

    Jun 15, 2026Ahmed Karam Eldaly, Matteo Figini, Daniel C. AlexanderMagnetic Resonance Imaging ReconstructionImage Reconstruction

  39. Uncertainty Quantification of Engineering Structures by Polynomial Chaos Expansion and Multivariate Active Learning

    Jun 15, 2026Qitian Lu, Jafar Jafari-Asl, Panagiotis Spyridis +1Surrogate ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  40. Bayesian 3D Steerable CNNs: Enabling Equivariance and Uncertainty Quantification Simultaneously

    Jun 13, 2026Abhishek Keripale, Ponkrshnan Thiagarajan, Susanta GhoshBayesian Neural NetworksReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  41. Structure-Preserving Neural Surrogates with Tractable Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 10, 2026Handi Zhang, Adrienne M. Propp, Brooks Kinch +2Reduced-Order ModelsReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  42. Conformal Prediction for Neural Operators: Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification in Physics Simulation

    Jun 7, 2026Michael ChinReliable Uncertainty QuantificationNeural Operators

  43. Beyond Point Estimates: Benchmarking Uncertainty Quantification Methods on the AION-1 Astronomical Foundation Model

    Jun 5, 2026Karla Tame-Narvaez, Aleksandra Ćiprijanović, Shubhendu TrivediReliable Uncertainty QuantificationFoundation Model

  44. Are you sure? A Comprehensive and Comprehensible Survey of Uncertainty Quantification in Symbolic Regression

    Jun 4, 2026Julia Reuter, Fabricio Olivetti de FrancaReliable Uncertainty QuantificationSymbolic Regression

  45. Trust-Aware Predictive Emissions Monitoring for Gas Turbine Fleets with Limited Labelled Data

    Jun 4, 2026Rebecca Potts, Aiden Durrant, Rick Hackney +1Gas Turbine CombustorReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  46. Instance-Level Post Hoc Uncertainty Quantification in Object Detection

    Jun 3, 2026Chongzhe Zhang, Zifan Zeng, Qunli Zhang +2Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationObject Detection

  47. Set-Preserving Calibration from Conformal P-Values to E-Values

    Jun 2, 2026Nabil Alami, Jad Zakharia, Souhaib Ben TaiebConformal InferenceEvidential Learning

  48. Scalable Uncertainty Quantification for Extreme Weather Forecasting via Empirical Neural Tangent Kernels

    Jun 1, 2026Jose Marie Antonio Miñoza, Rex Gregor Laylo, Sebastian C. IbañezNumerical Weather PredictionReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  49. On the Uncertainty Quantification Ability of Tabular Foundation Models

    May 31, 2026Tyler R. Johnson, Kian Ben-Jacob, Nima Negarandeh +2Tabular Prior-Data Fitted NetworkReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  50. DistMatch: Adaptive Binning via Distribution Matching for Robust Sequential Conformal Prediction

    May 30, 2026Enver Menadjiev, Jihyeon Seong, Jisu Yeo +1Conformal PredictionQuantile Regression

  51. Parameter-Free and Group Conditional Online Conformal Prediction

    May 29, 2026Beepul Bharti, Ambar Pal, Jacopo Teneggi +1Finite-Sample Coverage GuaranteesConformal Prediction

  52. Large-scale Uncertainty Quantification for Latent Variable Models Using Subsampling Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    May 29, 2026Xiaoyu Wang, Jonathan H. HugginsVariational InferenceGibbs Measures

  53. Accurate Large-sample Uncertainty Quantification using Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo

    May 29, 2026Yu Wang, Jie Ding, Jonathan H. HugginsReliable Uncertainty QuantificationStochastic Gradient Descent

  54. Scalable Bayesian Inference for Nonlinear Conservation Laws

    May 29, 2026Tim Weiland, Philipp HennigReliable Uncertainty QuantificationIll-Posed Inverse Problem

  55. Is the Last Layer Sufficient for Uncertainty Quantification?

    May 29, 2026Joseph Wilson, Chris van der Heide, Liam Hodgkinson +1Reliable Uncertainty QuantificationLogistic Regression

  56. Benchmarking Machine Learning Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies for Predicting Turbine Gas Temperature Degradation

    May 28, 2026Jostein Barry-Straume, Changmin Son, Adrian Sandu +4Gas Turbine CombustorReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  57. UNIQ: Conformal Calibration for Adaptive Conservatism in Offline Reinforcement Learning

    May 28, 2026Aditya UpadhyayOffline Reinforcement LearningReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  58. Provably Guaranteed Polytopic Uncertainty Quantification for SLAM

    May 27, 2026Guangyang Zeng, Yulong Gao, Yuan Shen +4Simultaneous Localization And MappingReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  59. Localizing Input Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models via Shapley Values

    May 27, 2026Seongjun Lee, Suwan Yoon, Changhee LeeLarge Language Model UncertaintyReliable Uncertainty Quantification

  60. Multi-Teacher Knowledge Distillation via Teacher-Informed Mixture Priors

    May 27, 2026Luyang Fang, Yongkai Chen, Jiazhang Cai +2Multi-Teacher DistillationKnowledge Distillation