Uncertainty Quantification

Also known as UQ

Ask about this topic

Momentum

44 papers in the last four weeks, up 110% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28
View on map

Latest papers 431

All topics
CardsList

  1. Joint distribution of upstream runoff governs downstream river-discharge prediction uncertainty in distributed ML models

    Jul 3, 2026Karan Ruparell, Tristan Hascoet, Takemasa Miyoshi +4Uncertainty QuantificationTime Series Forecasting

    University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, UK · European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK · RIKEN Center for Computational Sciences, Kobe, Japan +3

  2. A Bayesian Framework for Evaluating Scenario Compatibility in Generative Population Synthesis

    Jul 3, 2026Zhenlin Qin, Leizhen Wang, Yancheng Ling +1Uncertainty QuantificationBayesian Inference

    Department of Civil and Architectural Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden. · Department of Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia. · Digital Futures, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.

  3. Robustness Meets Uncertainty: Evidential Adversarial Training for Robust Selective Classification

    Jul 3, 2026Nicolas Sournac, Ahmed Baha Ben Jmaa, Bertrand BraeckeveldtAdversarial TrainingEvidential Deep Learning

    Multitel Research & Innovation Center, Artificial Intelligence Department, Belgium · TRAIL – Trusted AI Labs, Belgium

  4. Trading Confidence: Comprehensive Uncertainty Estimation in Algorithmic Trading

    Jul 3, 2026Lin Li, Li Rong Wang, Hsuan Fu +1Reinforcement LearningUncertainty Quantification

    Nanyang Technological University 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Nanyang Technological University Centre for Frontier AI Research, A*STAR 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore · Laval University Quebec, Canada

  5. Self-Auditing Residual Drifting for Pathology-Preserving Accelerated Knee MRI

    Jul 2, 2026Qing Lyu, Jianxu Wang, Mohammad Kawas +2Uncertainty QuantificationImage Reconstruction

    Department of Radiology & Biomedical Imaging, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510 USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 USA

  6. Bayesian Uncertainty Propagation for Agentic RAG Pipelines: A Proof-of-Concept Study on Multi-Hop Question Answering

    Jul 1, 2026Louis Donaldson, Connor Walker, Koorosh Aslansefat +1Uncertainty QuantificationAgentic RAG

    University of Hull, Hull HU6 7RX, UK

  7. Uncertainty-aware tree height change regression

    Jul 1, 2026Max Gaber, Dimitri Gominski, Jaime C. Revenga +3Uncertainty QuantificationGeospatial Foundation Models

    Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen · Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen · Department of Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, University of Rostock +1

  8. CoMet: Context and Multiplicity Decomposition for Multimodal Uncertainty Estimation

    Jun 30, 2026Sanghyuk Chun, William Yang, Amaya Dharmasiri +1Uncertainty QuantificationMultimodal Large Language Models

    Princeton University

  9. Von Mises Based Uncertainty Quantification for Closely Spaced Automotive Radar Targets

    Jun 30, 2026Vinay Kulkarni, V. V. ReddyEvidential Deep LearningUncertainty Quantification

    International Institute of Information Technology, Bengaluru, India

  10. Visual Semantic Entropy: Do Vision Language Models Recognize Visual Ambiguity?

    Jun 30, 2026Ta Duc Huy, Trang Nguyen, Townim Chowdhury +5VLM EvaluationVisual Question Answering

    Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University, Australia · Flinders University, Australia

  11. Patch-PODiff-ViT: Structured Latent Diffusion with Patchwise POD for Super-Resolution and Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 30, 2026Onkar Jadhav, Tim French, Matthew Rayson +1Diffusion Models for Image RestorationUncertainty Quantification

    School of Earth and Oceans, UWA Oceans Institute University of Western Australia Crawley, WA, Australia · School of Physics, Mathematics and Computing, Computer Science and Software Engineering University of Western Australia Crawley, WA, Australia

  12. Sequential sparse Gaussian process quantile regression

    Jun 30, 2026Hugo Nicolas, Olivier Le MaîtreQuantile RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    PLATON, CMAP · Inria, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · CNRS, Center for Applied Mathematics, ´Ecole polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France

  13. A Transferable Learned Temporal Prior for Transmission Reconstruction and Decision-Relevant Uncertainty in Real Outbreak Labels

    Jun 29, 2026Md Ahsan KarimUncertainty QuantificationTemporal Link Prediction

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, National Institute of Textile Engineering and Research (NITER) Nayarhat, Savar, Dhaka-1350, Bangladesh

  14. Propagation ofInterval Belief Structures andImprecise Copulas for~Neural Network Verification

    Jun 29, 2026Francesc Pifarre-Esquerda, Eric Goubault, Sylvie PutotNeural Network VerificationUncertainty Quantification

    LIX · LIX, CNRS, École polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France · X-DEP-INFO

  15. Bidirectional Autoregressive Latent Diffusion for Forward and Inverse Magnetohydrodynamics

    Jun 28, 2026Alexander ScheinkerUncertainty QuantificationAutoregressive Diffusion

    Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, 87545.

  16. Analyzing Uncertainty in the Spatial Representation of the Kinematic Bicycle Model

    Jun 28, 2026Shafayat Abrar, M. Zaeem Baig, Shahir Ul Islam Anzal +1Uncertainty QuantificationCovariance Estimation

    Dhanani School of Science and Engineering Habib University, Karachi 75290

  17. Randomized neural operator for parametric PDEs with fast training and conformal uncertainty quantification

    Jun 28, 2026Zirui Deng, Jingbo Sun, Deyu Meng +1Uncertainty QuantificationPDE Surrogate Modeling

    School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi 710049, China

  18. A Bayesian latent Gaussian process framework for aerodynamic uncertainty quantification

    Jun 27, 2026Geoffrey Davis, Ashwin RenganathanUncertainty QuantificationGaussian Processes

    Undergraduate research assistant, Aerospace Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 · Assistant professor, Aerospace Engineering and the Institute of Computational and Data Science (ICDS), The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

  19. From Signals to Transfer: A Factorised Study of Probe-Based Uncertainty Estimation in Large Language Models

    Jun 26, 2026Ponhvoan Srey, Xiaobao Wu, Cong-Duy Nguyen +3Uncertainty QuantificationHallucination in Language Models

    Nanyang Technological University · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · VinUniversity +1

  20. Ribbon: Scalable Approximation and Robust Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Graham Gibson, John Tipton, Kellin Rumsey +1Uncertainty QuantificationUncertainty Calibration

  21. Uncertainty quantification via conformal prediction in data assimilation

    Jun 25, 2026Catherine George, Alireza Javanmardi, Tijana Janjić +1Uncertainty QuantificationData Assimilation

    Mathematisches Institut für Maschinelles Lernen und Data Science, Katholische Universität Eichstätt-Ingolstadt · Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich, Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)

  22. Decision-Aligned Evaluation of Uncertainty Quantification

    Jun 25, 2026Annika Schneider, Tommy Rochussen, Joshua Stiller +1Uncertainty QuantificationProper Scoring Rules

    1Technical University of Munich · 2Helmholtz AI · 3MCML +3

  23. Estimating Uncertainty in Classifier Performance with Applications to Large Language Models and Nested Data

    Jun 24, 2026Kylie AnglinLLM EvaluationConfidence Region Estimation

    Department of Educational Psychology, Neag School of Education, University of Connecticut

  24. Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

    Jun 24, 2026Konstantin Kueffner, Tobias Meggendorfer, Maximilian Weininger +1Markov Decision ProcessesUncertainty Quantification

    Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Klosterneuburg, Austria · Lancaster University Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany · Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany +1

  25. Uncertainty Quantification for Computer-Use Agents: A Benchmark across Vision-Language Models and GUI Grounding Datasets

    Jun 24, 2026Divake Kumar, Sina Tayebati, Devashri Naik +5Computer-Use Agent BenchmarksUncertainty Quantification

    University of Illinois Chicago · Intel Labs · Capital One AI Labs

  26. Efficient Analytic Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Modal Regression

    Jun 23, 2026Kun Jin, James Harrison, Jiawei Li +8Quantile RegressionUncertainty Quantification

    1Google · 2Google DeepMind

  27. UECP: Uncertainty-Enhanced Collaborative Perception

    Jun 22, 2026Kang Yang, Tianci Bu, Peng Wang +3Uncertainty QuantificationAutonomous Driving Perception

    Renmin University of China, Beijing, China · College of Systems Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, China · Intelligent Shipping Center, China Waterborne Transport Research Institute, Beijing, China

  28. The Origins of Stochasticity: Comprehensive Investigations on Uncertainty Quantification for Large Language Models

    Jun 22, 2026Xiang-Jun Ou, Shuang Liang, Xin-Yu Hu +3LLM EvaluationUncertainty Quantification

    National Key Laboratory for Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210063, China. · School of Intelligent Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou 215163, China.

  29. Interpretable Uncertainty Routing Separating Emotion Ambiguity from Distribution Shift in Facial Expression Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Keito Inoshita, Takato UenoUncertainty QuantificationSelective Prediction

    Faculty of Business and Commerce, Kansai University, Suita, Japan · Data Science and AI Innovation Research Promotion Center, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan · Graduate School of Data Science, Shiga University, Hikone, Japan

  30. Modular Diffusion Models for Structured Visual Recognition

    Jun 21, 2026Siddhesh Khandelwal, Björn Ommer, Leonid SigalScene Graph GenerationUncertainty Quantification

    Department of Compute Science, University of British Columbia · Vector Institute for AI · CompVis, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich +2