Weather Forecasting

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Overview

Weather forecasting estimates how atmospheric conditions will evolve to support decisions ranging from daily planning to severe-weather warnings. Numerical weather prediction solves physical equations, while machine-learning approaches use transformers, graph networks, state-space models, and generative methods trained on reanalysis, satellite, radar, or station observations; data assimilation combines observations with model states. Current work also develops probabilistic ensembles, short-range radar nowcasts, regional downscaling, and forecasts for events such as tropical cyclones and heavy precipitation. A central challenge is producing reliable long-range and extreme-event forecasts while preserving physical consistency, representing local detail, and validating performance against real observations rather than reanalysis alone.

Latest papers

CardsList

178 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 55% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

  1. Dual-Scale Temporal Fusion Reveals Structured Predictability in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Temperature Prediction

    May 7, 2026Elnaz Bashir, Jiali Wang, Lin YanTime Series ForecastingMulti-Scale Feature Fusion

    Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA · Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL 60439, USA

  2. Earth-o1: A Grid-free Observation-native Atmospheric World Model

    May 7, 2026Junchao Gong, Kaiyi Xu, Wangxu Wei +22World Model LearningWeather Forecasting

    School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China. · School of Information Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Anhui, China. · State Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. +5

  3. Two Hebrew folk meteorological proverbs tested: rainfall on Rosh Chodesh and Shabbat Mevarechim as predictors of monthly precipitation (Israel, 1950-2024)

    May 6, 2026Abraham Itzhak WeinbergPrecipitation ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    AI-WEINBERG, AI Experts [physics.ao-ph]

  4. Extreme Weather Bench: A framework and benchmark for evaluation of high-impact weather

    May 1, 2026Amy McGovern, Taylor Mandelbaum, Daniel Rothenberg +6Forecasting BenchmarksExtreme Weather Forecasting

    Brightband, San Francisco, CA, USA. · School of Meteorology and School of Computer Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, 73072, OK, USA. · Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. +5

  5. Federated Weather Modeling on Sensor Data

    May 1, 2026Shengchao Chen, Guodong LongSpatiotemporal ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Australian AI Institute, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Technology Sydney, Australia

  6. PINN-Cast: Exploring the Role of Continuous-Depth NODE in Transformers and Physics Informed Loss as Soft Physical Constraints in Short-term Weather Forecasting

    Apr 30, 2026Hira Saleem, Flora Salim, Cormac PurcellTransformerPhysics-Informed ML

    University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia

  7. Explanation of Dynamic Physical Field Predictions using WassersteinGrad: Application to Autoregressive Weather Forecasting

    Apr 24, 2026Younes Essafouri, Laure Raynaud, Luciano Drozda +1Gradient-Based AttributionNeural Network Interpretability

    Univ. Toulouse, INSA Toulouse, CNRS UMR 5219, IMT, Toulouse, France · Météo-France, CNRS, Univ. Toulouse, CNRM, Toulouse, France · Cerfacs, CNRS/Cerfacs/IRD, CECI, Toulouse, France

  8. Mechanistic Interpretability Tool for AI Weather Models

    Apr 22, 2026Kirsten I. Tempest, Matthias Beylich, George C. CraigInterpretable MLMechanistic Interpretability

    Meteorological Institute Munich, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, 80333 Munich, Germany · Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

  9. Improvements to the post-processing of weather forecasts using machine learning and feature selection

    Apr 21, 2026Kazuma Iwase, Tomoyuki TakenawaPrecipitation ForecastingGradient-Boosted Decision Trees

    Graduate School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, 2-1-6 Etchujima, Koto-ku, Tokyo 135-8533, Japan

  10. Earth System Foundation Model (ESFM): A unified framework for heterogeneous data integration and forecasting

    Apr 20, 2026Firat Ozdemir, Yun Cheng, Salman Mohebi +11Geospatial Foundation ModelsClimate Science

    Swiss Data Science Center (SDSC), ETH Zurich & EPFL, Zurich & Lausanne, Switzerland · ETH AI Center, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland +1

  11. Enhancing AI and Dynamical Subseasonal Forecasts with Probabilistic Bias Correction

    Apr 17, 2026Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein +10Probabilistic ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    Harvard College, Cambridge, MA, USA. · University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. · Instituto de Matemática Pura e Aplicada, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. +6

  12. CycloneMAE: A Scalable Multi-Task Learning Model for Global Tropical Cyclone Probabilistic Forecasting

    Apr 14, 2026Renlong Hang, Zihao Xu, Jiuwei Zhao +3Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    School of Computer Science, School of Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China. · School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China. · Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai, 200030, China. +1

  13. Neural Stochastic Processes for Satellite Precipitation Refinement

    Apr 12, 2026Shunya Nagashima, Takumi Bannai, Shuitsu Koyama +2Neural ProcessesRemote Sensing

    Neurogica Inc. · LTS, Inc. · ME-Lab Japan, Inc.

  14. A Diffusion-Contrastive Graph Neural Network with Virtual Nodes for Wind Nowcasting in Unobserved Regions

    Apr 11, 2026Jie Shi, Siamak MehrkanoonWeather ForecastingSpatiotemporal GNNs

    Department of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

  15. U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecaster

    Apr 10, 2026Salva Rühling Cachay, Duncan Watson-Parris, Rose YuMonte Carlo DropoutWeather Forecasting

    UC San Diego

  16. Generative 3D Gaussian Splatting for Arbitrary-ResolutionAtmospheric Downscaling and Forecasting

    Apr 9, 2026Tao Han, Zhibin Wen, Zhenghao Chen +4Weather Forecasting3D Gaussian Splatting

    Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 999077, Hong Kong, China · Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, 200232, China · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China +2

  17. SynopticBench: Evaluating Vision-Language Models on Generating Weather Forecast Discussions of the Future

    Apr 7, 2026Timothy B. Higgins, Antonios Mamalakis, Chirag AgarwalVLM EvaluationForecasting Benchmarks

    Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, 22903, Virginia, United States. · School of Data Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, 22903, Virginia, United States.

  18. Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data

    Apr 6, 2026Alexander Kiefer, Prasanna Balaprakash, Xiao WangWeather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Bredesen Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee · Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

  19. (Sparse) Attention to the Details: Preserving Spectral Fidelity in ML-based Weather Forecasting Models

    Apr 6, 2026Maksim Zhdanov, Ana Lucic, Max Welling +1Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    AMLab · University of Amsterdam · CuspAI

  20. The Recipe Matters More Than the Kitchen:Mathematical Foundations of the AI Weather Prediction Pipeline

    Apr 1, 2026Piyush Garg, Diana R. Gergel, Andrew E. Shao +1Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    Commercial AI Lab, RWE Trading Americas Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA · AI Research Lab, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Victoria, BC, Canada

  21. Super-Resolving Coarse-Resolution Weather Forecasts With Flow Matching

    Apr 1, 2026Aymeric Delefosse, Anastase Charantonis, Dominique BéréziatWeather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    Inria, ARCHES, Paris, France · Sorbonne Université, CNRS, LIP6, Paris, France

  22. Hybrid Quantum-Classical Spatiotemporal Forecasting for 3D Cloud Fields

    Mar 31, 2026Fu Wang, Qifeng Lu, Xinyu Long +4Spatiotemporal ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    CMA Earth system Modeling and Prediction Center (CEMC) and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Beijing, 100081, China · the School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin City, 643000, China · the School of Electronic and Communication Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China +2

  23. Improving Ensemble Forecasts of Abnormally Deflecting Tropical Cyclones with Fused Atmosphere-Ocean-Terrain Data

    Mar 31, 2026Qixiang Li, Yuan Zhou, Shuwei Huo +2Tropical Cyclone Intensity ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China · Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and the Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China

  24. Downscaling weather forecasts from Low- to High-Resolution with Diffusion Models

    Mar 30, 2026Joffrey Dumont Le Brazidec, Simon Lang, Martin Leutbecher +9Weather ForecastingProbabilistic Forecasting

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

  25. Skillful Kilometer-Scale Regional Weather Forecasting via Global and Regional Coupling

    Mar 30, 2026Weiqi Chen, Wenwei Wang, Qilong Yuan +5Weather ForecastingMulti-Scale Feature Fusion

    DAMO Academy, Alibaba Group Hangzhou, China · Northwest Polytechnical University Xi’an, China · Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China +1

  26. StretchCast: Global-Regional AI Weather Forecasting on Stretched Cubed-Sphere Mesh

    Mar 28, 2026Jin FengWeather ForecastingTime Series Forecasting

    Institute of Urban Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (IUM, CMA), Beijing, China · LeadSee Team, Beijing Meteorological Service

  27. On Neural Scaling Laws for Weather Emulation through Continual Training

    Mar 26, 2026Shashank Subramanian, Alexander Kiefer, Arnur Nigmetov +3Neural Scaling LawsWeather Forecasting

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · Oak Ridge National Laboratory · ICSI and UC Berkeley +1

  28. MP-MoE: Matrix Profile-Guided Mixture of Experts for Precipitation Forecasting

    Mar 26, 2026Huyen Ngoc Tran, Dung Trung Tran, Hong Nguyen +2Precipitation ForecastingWeather Forecasting

    School of Electronics and Electrical Engineering, Hanoi University of Science and Technology · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, United States

  29. Marchuk: Efficient Global Weather Forecasting from Mid-Range to Sub-Seasonal Scales via Flow Matching

    Mar 25, 2026Arsen Kuzhamuratov, Mikhail Zhirnov, Andrey Kuznetsov +2Weather ForecastingSpatiotemporal Forecasting

    AXXX · FusionBrain Lab

  30. A Comparative Study of Machine Learning Models for Hourly Forecasting of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity

    Mar 24, 2026Jiaqi DongWeather ForecastingTime Series Forecasting