Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting

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7 papers in the last four weeks, up 75% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty
Oct 5, 2026Tomas Kaljevic, Ivan Arzola, Yu ZhangZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of California, Santa Cruz
Foundations without Fundamentals: Zero-Shot Blind Spots in Time Series FMs
Oct 1, 2026Nafiseh Ghoroghchian, Haipeng Zhang, Shuyi Han +2Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Layer6 AI
Evaluating Accuracy and Probabilistic Reliability of Zero-Shot Time Series Foundation Models
Sep 22, 2026Panagiotis Michael, Moysis Symeonides, Demetris TrihinasZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Transformers
Department of Computer Science, University of Nicosia, Cyprus · Department of Computer Science, University of Cyprus, Cyprus
$t_0$ : A Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting with Context
Sep 21, 2026Lucas Meyer, Claudio Sole, Huikan Xiang +6Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
The Forecasting Company · Macrocosm
QUALS: Corpus Equilibrium for Universal Forecasting via Pattern Quantization and Learnability Synchronization
Sep 17, 2026Yujie Li, Zezhi Shao, Chengqing Yu +7Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Data Selection
State Key Laboratory of AI Safety, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · School of Data Science and Engineering, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China
SOTER: A Generative Time-Series Foundation Model for Wearable Human Physiological Signals
Sep 15, 2026Fangke Chen, Sirry Chen, Wei Chen +1Irregular Time-Series Modeling Time Series Imputation
School of Integrated Circuits, Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China · Shanghai Innovation Institute Shanghai, China · School of Data Science, Fudan University Shanghai, China +1
Evaluating Time-Series Foundation Models and Multimodal Dietary Context for CGM Forecasting
Sep 11, 2026Bowen Zhang, Hsiu-Wen Cheng, Hongyu Yang +9Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Blood Glucose Forecasting
University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, U.S.A. · Union County Magnet High School, Scotch Plain, NJ, U.S.A. · Huntington Beach High School, Huntington Beach, CA, U.S.A. +3
A Later Test Set Is Not a New Domain: Pretraining Familiarity Survives a Contamination-Free Hold-Out
Sep 9, 2026Mahdi Naser Moghadasi, Faezeh GhaderiZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Domain Generalization
BrightMind AI · University of Texas at Arlington
LLMODE: Aligning ODEs with LLMs via Gated Token Injection for Irregular Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
Aug 30, 2026Di Zhang, Jingyang Zhang, Ziqian Wang +4Irregular Time-Series Modeling Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Beihang University Beijing, China
Systematic Evaluation of TabPFN-TS and Chronos-2 for Zero-Shot Heat Load Forecasting in District Heating Networks
Aug 20, 2026Ben Spoek, Karim K. Ben Hicham, Kai Derzsi +3Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Chair of Energy Efficient Buildings and Indoor Climate, RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustr. 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany · Process Systems Engineering, RWTH Aachen University, Forckenbeckstr. 51, 52074 Aachen, Germany
Into the ORBIT for Time Series: Training Regimes for Foundation Models
Aug 13, 2026Hongjie Xia, Yiding Liu, Yifan Hu +2Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Self-Supervised Pre-Training
FM-LLM: A frequency-enhanced mixture-of-experts framework for adapting LLMs to time series forecasting
Aug 12, 2026Rentao Gu, Yihang Ding, Junjie Li +5Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing, 100876, China · China Telecom Research Institute, Beijing, 100032, China
Align-RAG: Alignment Is All You Need for TSFM In-Context Learning
Aug 6, 2026Mohammad Asadi, Soheil Hor, Bardiya Akhbari +6Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Retrieval-Augmented ICL
1Stanford University 2Amazon
Foundation Models and Fine-Tuning: Toward a New Generation of Models for Time Series Forecasting
Jul 25, 2026Morad Laglil, Bertrand Pracca, Emilie Devijver +1Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models
Savoye, 18 bd des Gorgets, 21000, Dijon, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LIG, Grenoble, 38000, France
Zero-Shot Heart Rate Variability Forecasting from Consumer Wearables Using Time Series Foundation Models
Jul 22, 2026Luukas Peräkylä, Fahad Sohrab, Ville Hautamäki +3Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Tampere University, Tampere, Finland · University of Eastern Finland, Finland
Towards Reliable Zero-Shot Crowd Forecasting: Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Special Event Pedestrian Forecasting
Jul 20, 2026Ziteng Li, Yanan Xin, Tina Comes +1Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting
Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Department of Transport & Planning, Delft, The Netherlands. · Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Technology, Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands. · German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures, Sankt Augustin, Germany.
A Minimal Interpretable Architecture for Zero-Shot Reconstruction of Dynamical Systems
Jul 16, 2026Christoph Jürgen Hemmer, Florian Plaswig, Daniel DurstewitzDynamical Systems Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Dept. of Theoretical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Mannheim, Germany · Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg, Germany · Faculty of Physics and Astronomy, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
Rethinking Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation
Jul 8, 2026Haoxin Liu, Yichen Zhou, Rajat Sen +2Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Georgia Institute of Technology · Google Research
RMISC: A Large-scale Real-world Multivariate Corpus for Time Series Foundation Models
Jul 7, 2026Qian Sun, Yong-Ming Tian, Jia-Wei Huang +2Synthetic Data Pretraining Multivariate Time Series Forecasting
State Key Laboratory of Novel Software Technology, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China · School of Intelligent Science and Technology, Nanjing University, Suzhou, China · Nanjing University – Siemens Joint Research Center on Industrial AI, Suzhou, China +1
TopoBrick: Agentic Topology Sampling of Exogenous Variables for Zero-Shot Building IoT Forecasting
Jul 7, 2026Xiachong Lin, Du Yin, Arian Prabowo +6Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
University of New South Wales Sydney, NSW, Australia · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, China · Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates +1
When Do Foundation Models Pay Off? A Break-Even Analysis of Pretrained Time Series Forecasters
Jul 6, 2026Nicholas Tan Jerome, Frank SimonZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
Evaluating Time Series Foundation Models for Electricity Price Forecasting: Contamination Risk, Distributional Shifts, and Covariate Dependence
Jul 2, 2026Zhenghua Pan, Ahmed Aziz EzzatZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Electricity Price Forecasting
Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, USA.
Zeus: Towards Tuning-Free Foundation Model for Time Series Analysis
Jul 2, 2026Yisong Fu, Zezhi Shao, Chengqing Yu +4Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Multi-Task Learning
State Key Laboratory of AI Safety, Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences · Xiamen Institute of Data Intelligence
TiRex-2: Generalizing TiRex to Multivariate Data and Streaming
Jul 1, 2026Patrick Podest, Marco Pichler, Elias Bürger +7Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
ELLIS Unit Linz, LIT AI Lab & Institute for Machine Learning, JKU Linz, Austria · NXAI Lab, Linz, Austria · NXAI GmbH, Linz, Austria +1
The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference
Jun 26, 2026Pablo Montero-Manso, Marcel ScharthSimulation-Based Inference Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
University of Sydney Business School, Australia
Unified Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting: A Darts Foundation
Jun 25, 2026Zhihao Dai, Dennis Bader, Alain GysiZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models
Energy and Power Group, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, UK · Unit8 SA, Switzerland
Topological Out-of-Domain Generalization in Dynamical Systems Reconstruction
Jun 22, 2026Georg Trede, Charlotte Ricarda Doll, Elias Weber +1Dynamical Systems Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting
Dept. of Theoretical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Mannheim, Germany · Faculty of Physics and Astronomy, Heidelberg University, Germany · Interdisciplinary Center for Scientific Computing (IWR), Heidelberg University, Germany
TelcoAgent: A Scalable 5G Multi-KPM Forecasting With 3GPP-Grounded Explainability
Jun 18, 2026Geon Kim, Dara Ron, Sukhdeep Singh +5Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Explainable Artificial Intelligence
†Kyung Hee University, South Korea · *NextG Wireless Lab, North Carolina State University, USA · ‡Samsung R&D Institute India, Bangalore, India
Hybrid NARX-LLM for Greenland Iceberg Discharge: Prompt-Driven Residual Correction
Jun 13, 2026Yiquan Gao, Duohui XuZero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Residual Learning
1Heriot-Watt University. · 2StudioYG. · This work was completed before the first author’s affiliation with Heriot-Watt University and was conducted entirely independently of the institution.
A Comparative Study of Deep Learning Architectures for Multi-Horizon Behavioural Forecasting for Mobile Health
Jun 12, 2026Pavlos Nicolaou, Kleanthis Malialis, Artemis Kontou +1Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
KIOS Research and Innovation Center of Excellence · Department of Computer Science University of Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus

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Benchmarking Time Series Foundation Models for Load Forecasting Under Covariate Uncertainty

Tomas Kaljevic, Ivan Arzola, Yu Zhang

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of California, Santa Cruz

Zero-Shot Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Electricity Load Forecasting Time-Series Foundation Models

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Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of forecasting tasks, their effectiveness for STLF under realistic operational conditions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present a comprehensive benchmark of four trained-from-scratch (TFS) models and four TSFMs across three real-world load forecasting datasets under operational scenarios that differ in the availability and quality of future covariate information. Our results show that Chronos-2 consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance in both zero-shot and fine-tuned settings when future covariates are available or accurately forecast. However, its performance degrades as covariate forecasts become increasingly noisy, whereas TimesNet exhibits greater robustness under severe covariate uncertainty. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of covariate-informed TSFMs for STLF while highlighting the critical role of robust covariate modeling in real-world forecasting applications.

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