Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to clinical prediction tasks such as in-hospital mortality and readmission from electronic health records (EHRs). Privacy and compliance constraints motivate systems that can be deployed locally, which has increased interest in open-weight multi-agent designs. However, most medical multi-agent systems are evaluated as a single block, leaving unclear which agent role contributes to prediction and whether retrieval drives observed gains. We study a role-specialized Mixture-of-Agents (MoA) that combines medical knowledge retrieval with contrastive similar-patient reasoning. By varying the role design while holding the retrieval setup fixed, we localize the main effect to the final integrator. Pairing large open-weight analysts with a small open-weight integrator matches closed-model prompting on F1 for mortality prediction while flagging substantially more true high-risk patients. Mechanism analysis shows the role assignment directly yields a high-recall operating point without threshold tuning. The effect is task-dependent, with smaller gains for readmission because the available records correlate weakly with this longer-horizon outcome. These results position role design as a key factor in privacy-constrained, training-free clinical LLM prediction.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Pipeline overview. (A) Multi-source databases. A knowledge database is built from MedCorp and UMLS, and a patient database is built from the EHRs. (B) Role-specialized retrieval and integration. The label-blind risk analyst and protective analyst read the target record and augment their reasoning through retrieval from the knowledge database and the patient database; the integrator runs its own retrieval and integrates the two readings into a final prediction.
MIMIC-III Mort.
MIMIC-IV Mort.
A/R/I
MacF1
Sens
Spec
AUROC
MacF1
Sens
Spec
AUROC
oss/oss/oss
40.0
25.9
58.7
.406
38.5
13.0
80.4
.543
oss/qwen/oss
38.3
18.5
67.4
.399
35.0
7.4
84.8
.533
qwen/oss/oss
36.2
24.1
52.2
.340
36.3
11.1
78.3
.517
oss/oss/qwen
47.3
75.9
23.9
.470
57.4
64.8
50.0
.603
oss/qwen/qwen
41.3
24.1
65.2
.444
40.6
18.5
73.9
.575
Table 1: Role-isolation factorial, both mortality cells. A/R/I = analyst/retrieval/integrator; oss = GPT-OSS-120B, qwen = Qwen2.5-7B; oss CoT = chain-of-thought. F1/Sens/Spec in %; AUROC computed within each cell. Bold (large analysts, small integrator) best on both.
MIMIC-IV Mort.
MIMIC-III Mort.
MIMIC-IV Read.
MIMIC-III Read.
(pos 19.2%)
(pos 5.4%)
(pos 46.5%)
(pos 54.8%)
Method
Acc
F1
Sens
Acc
F1
Sens
Acc
F1
Sens
Acc
F1
Sens
All-negative
80.8
44.7
0.0
94.6
48.6
0.0
53.5
34.9
0.0
45.2
31.1
0.0
Pre-trained (task-supervised, trained from scratch)
GRU
88.7
76.4
42.9
92.7
50.7
3.7
62.4
62.2
68.3
62.2
61.5
68.9
AdaCare
88.7
78.2
50.3
90.6
54.1
9.1
62.9
62.9
58.4
61.6
60.5
70.8
Table 2: Main results, all four cells (Acc/F1/Sens, %), by training regime. Our training-free rows use RAG + KARE exemplars (single vs. multi = topology). Bold marks the best training-free row. In the open rows oss = GPT-OSS-120B and qwen = Qwen2.5-7B; multi rows are named by their (analyst/retrieval/integrator) assignment.
MIMIC-IV Mort.
MIMIC-III Mort.
MIMIC-IV Read.
MIMIC-III Read.
Model
Topo
RAG
Sim
Acc
F1
Sens
Spec
Acc
F1
Sens
Spec
Acc
F1
Sens
Spec
Acc
F1
Sens
Spec
GPT-oss
single
–
–
77.9
58.3
24.2
90.7
70.6
48.4
46.3
72.0
49.0
45.2
24.6
70.1
43.3
35.0
7.0
87.3
single
✓
✓
71.6
52.8
22.1
83.4
61.2
42.0
33.3
62.8
47.7
47.7
48.8
46.7
43.8
43.1
49.6
36.7
single
✓
–
48.5
37.7
17.9
55.8
59.7
42.0
40.7
60.8
49.1
49.0
56.5
42.6
51.9
46.6
76.2
22.4
multi
–
✓
78.3
51.3
10.0
94.6
80.0
50.5
25.9
83.1
50.1
48.9
37.4
61.3
47.5
46.9
33.9
64.0
multi
✓
✓
78.7
54.4
14.7
94.0
74.4
46.9
22.2
77.4
47.5
47.2
43.5
50.9
48.8
48.8
42.1
56.9
Table 3: Component ablation, all four cells (%). Topo single vs. multi; RAG MedRAG; Sim KARE exemplars; the single + RAG no-exemplar row is the added control. The rows reported in the main results table are the single + RAG + Sim and multi + RAG + Sim configurations.
Figure 2: Tjur’s D (left two panels) and AUROC (right two) on MIMIC-IV mortality, for CoT , single + RAG + Sim , and the multi + RAG + Sim pipeline. Each curve is the 95% bootstrap CI for that condition and the dot is its point estimate, with the dashed line marking the null ( D=0 or AUROC =0.5 ).
Figure 3: Mean predicted risk versus number of recorded conditions, among patients who did not have the event. Bars are standard error.
Table 5: AUROC / AUPRC (%) for methods that expose probabilities (m3/m4 = MIMIC-III/IV mortality, rd3/rd4 = readmission).
Figure 4: Discrimination slope (Tjur’s D , top) and AUROC (bottom), CoT → single + RAG + Sim → multi + RAG + Sim, both models, all four cells; ridges =95% bootstrap CI (normal approx.), filled = significant.
gpt-oss integrator
Qwen integrator
cell ( noss / nqwen )
an.
int.
an.
int.
TP ( 28 / 116 )
54.5
13.6
32.7
4.3
FP ( 48 / 258 )
46.0
10.6
24.1
3.5
FN ( 162 / 74 )
22.0
5.0
17.6
2.2
TN ( 749 / 539 )
11.6
3.3
8.7
1.7
Appendix
Table 6: Severity terms per case by confusion-matrix cell, MIMIC-IV mortality (shared n=987 ). an. = shared gpt-oss analyst text; int. = integrator text.
MIMIC-III Mort.
MIMIC-IV Mort.
MIMIC-III Read.
MIMIC-IV Read.
A/R/I
F1
Sn
Sp
AUC
F1
Sn
Sp
AUC
F1
Sn
Sp
AUC
F1
Sn
Sp
AUC
oss/oss/oss
40.0
25.9
58.7
.41
38.5
13.0
80.4
.54
46.6
34.5
62.2
.49
46.6
41.3
51.9
.45
oss/qwen/oss
38.3
18.5
67.4
.40
35.0
7.4
84.8
.53
43.2
12.7
97.8
.61
37.4
2.2
100.0
.47
qwen/oss/oss
36.2
24.1
52.2
.34
36.3
11.1
78.3
.52
45.7
20.0
86.7
.56
34.6
0.0
98.1
.49
oss/oss/qwen
47.3
75.9
23.9
.47
57.4
64.8
50.0
.60
34.2
94.5
0.0
.53
34.5
89.1
5.6
.47
oss/qwen/qwen
41.3
24.1
65.2
.44
40.6
18.5
73.9
.58
53.1
25.5
95.6
.60
40.5
8.7
88.9
.45
Appendix
Table 7: Role-isolation factorial, all four cells, n=100 each (F1/Sens/Spec %; AUROC within-cell). A/R/I = analyst/retrieval/integrator; oss = large, qwen = small. Bold (large analysts, small integrator) wins F1/Sens/AUROC on mortality.
Integrator
Analysts
Retrieval
Acc
Recall
F1
GPT-4o
GPT-4o
GPT-4o
45.0
3.7
6.8
Qwen
GPT-4o
GPT-4o
53.0
57.4
56.9
Appendix
Table 8: Family-invariance check ( n=100 MIMIC-III mortality; Acc/Recall/pos-class F1 %). Swapping the integrator GPT-4o → Qwen reproduces the gpt-oss-family recall lift from replacing only the integrator with the small model.
Building effective clinical decision support systems requires the synthesis of complex heterogeneous multimodal data. Such modalities include temporal electronic health records data, medical images, radiology reports, and clinical notes. Large language model (LLM)-based agents have shown impressive performance in various healthcare tasks, especially those involving textual modalities. Considering the fragmentation of healthcare data across hospital systems, collaborative agent frameworks present a promising direction to mitigate data sharing challenges. However, the effectiveness of LLM agents for multimodal clinical risk prediction remains largely unexamined. In this work, we conduct a systematic evaluation of LLM-based agents for clinical prediction tasks using large-scale real-world data. We assess performance in unimodal and multimodal settings and quantify performance gaps between single agent and multi-agent systems. Our findings highlight that single agent frameworks outperform naive multi-agent systems, are better at handling multimodal data, and are better calibrated. This underscores a critical need for improving multi-agent collaboration to better handle heterogeneous inputs. By open-sourcing our code and evaluation framework, this work offers a new benchmark to support future developments relating to agentic systems in healthcare.
Large language models applied to clinical prediction exhibit case-level heterogeneity: simple cases yield consistent outputs, while complex cases produce divergent predictions under minor prompt changes. Existing single-agent strategies sample from one role-conditioned distribution, and multi-agent frameworks use fixed roles with flat majority voting, discarding the diagnostic signal in disagreement. We propose CAMP (Case-Adaptive Multi-agent Panel), where an attending-physician agent dynamically assembles a specialist panel tailored to each case's diagnostic uncertainty. Each specialist evaluates candidates via three-valued voting (KEEP/REFUSE/NEUTRAL), enabling principled abstention outside one's expertise. A hybrid router directs each diagnosis through strong consensus, fallback to the attending physician's judgment, or evidence-based arbitration that weighs argument quality over vote counts. On diagnostic prediction and brief hospital course generation from MIMIC-IV across four LLM backbones, CAMP consistently outperforms strong baselines while consuming fewer tokens than most competing multi-agent methods, with voting records and arbitration traces offering transparent decision audits.
Yuxing Lu, Yushuhong Lin, Jason Zhang
Georgia Institute of Technology · Peking University
We present Multi-Agent Reasoning and Coordination (MARC), an open-source framework that replaces monolithic LLM prompting with deterministic multi-agent orchestration for clinical reasoning. MARC coordinates role-specialized agents for extraction, reasoning, answer generation, and evaluation, with explicit context passing and traceable intermediate outputs, enabling stage-wise failure attribution. We additionally introduce a Decomposer module that generates task-specific agent prompts from a plain-language description, eliminating manual prompt engineering. The framework supports both API-based and local CPU-compatible deployments and is entirely configurable via YAML, without code modifications. MARC is designed to be model-agnostic, interpretable, and accessible to clinical domain experts without programming expertise. The full framework is available at https://github.com/Penn-RAIL/MARC-v1.
Saisha Shetty, Satvik Tripathi, Austin Lin +6
1. College of Engineering, University of California, Davis · 2. Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania · 3. School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Pennsylvania +2