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We investigate the ability of decoder-only transformer models to perform abstract symbolic reasoning; specifically solving propositional logic reasoning problems given in-context. Previous work demonstrated that models fail to generalize to problems involving variable names that were not observed during training, and it was shown that one reason behind this is the difficulty of copying (or generating) unseen tokens. We show both theoretically and empirically that a particular representational collapse also has a crucial role: the unembeddings (last-layer weights) of unseen tokens collapse to nearly the same vector during training. The collapse makes distinguishing multiple unseen variables difficult for the model (especially when the embedding and unembedding parameters are shared), and provides a mechanistic explanation for the effectiveness of existing heuristic interventions like "active forgetting", which periodically reset the token (un)embeddings. Based on these observations, we devise a combination of techniques, involving a small architecture change facilitating copying, data diversity, and freezing or resetting (un)embeddings, that achieves generalization to unseen tokens. We support our claims with extensive controlled experiments on propositional logic reasoning problems. Beyond synthetic experiments, we also observe evidence of (un)embedding collapse in the open-weight models in the Gemma 3 family, which includes 99 unused tokens reserved for downstream use. Empirically we find that the correlated embeddings of these tokens are a poor initialization for finetuning applications.

World models based on video generation demonstrate remarkable potential for simulating interactive environments yet suffer from persistent difficulties in two key areas: maintaining long-term content consistency when scenes are revisited and enabling precise camera control from user-specified inputs. Existing methods based on explicit 3D reconstruction often compromise flexibility in unbounded scenarios and struggle to preserve fine-grained structures. Alternative methods rely directly on previously generated frames without establishing explicit spatial correspondence, thereby limiting controllability and consistency. To address these limitations, we present UCM, a novel framework for unified modeling of long-term memory and precise camera control via a time-aware positional encoding warping mechanism. To reduce computational overhead, we design an efficient dual-stream diffusion transformer for high-fidelity generation. Moreover, we introduce a scalable data curation strategy that utilizes point-cloud-based rendering to simulate scene revisiting, enabling training on over 500K monocular videos. Extensive experiments on real-world and synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that UCM significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on long-term scene consistency, while achieving precise camera controllability in high-fidelity video generation.

Causal inference from electronic health records (EHR) is fundamentally limited by unmeasured confounding: critical clinical states such as frailty, goals of care, and mental status are documented in free-text notes but absent from structured data. Large language models can extract these latent confounders as interpretable, structured covariates, yet how to effectively integrate them into causal estimation pipelines has not been systematically studied. Using the MIMIC-IV database with 21,859 sepsis patients, we compare seven covariate-integration strategies for estimating the effect of early vasopressor initiation on 28-day mortality, spanning tabular-only baselines, traditional NLP representations, and three LLM-augmented approaches. A central finding is that not all integration strategies are equally effective: directly augmenting the propensity score model with LLM covariates achieves the best performance, while dual-caliper matching on text-derived categorical distances restricts the donor pool and degrades estimation. In semi-synthetic experiments with known ground-truth effects, LLM-augmented propensity scores reduce estimation bias from 0.0143 to 0.0003 relative to tabular-only methods, and this advantage persists under substantial simulated extraction error. On real data, incorporating LLM-extracted covariates reduces the estimated treatment effect from 0.055 to 0.027, directionally consistent with the CLOVERS randomized trial, and a doubly robust estimator yielding 0.019 confirms the robustness of this finding. Our results offer practical guidance on when and how text-derived covariates improve causal estimation in critical care.

Multi-output Gaussian process regression scales cubically in the number of observations times outputs, and dense kernel-matrix methods need bespoke handling whenever different outputs are observed at different inputs. We express multi-output Gaussian process regression as a Forney-style factor graph in which a nearest-neighbor chain orders a fixed candidate set of $C$ inputs into a one-dimensional sequence. Along this chain, latent Matérn processes evolve through linear-Gaussian transition factors, while the linear model of coregionalization mixes $L$ latent processes into $D$ outputs through a deterministic mixing factor and per-output scalar observation factors. Posterior computation reduces to exact Gaussian message passing on the chain at cost $\mathcal{O}(C(DL^2 + L^3))$ after chain construction, and missing observations omit their local factor without any covariance-matrix restructuring. The formulation therefore scales in the number of data samples and in the rate of missing observations, while remaining best suited to candidate sets in low input dimension.We compare the factor-graph formulation against an exact kernel-matrix baseline, a sparse-variational inducing-point baseline, and a nearest-neighbor baseline on a synthetic input-dimension sweep and on electricity time series forecasting. At low input dimension the factor-graph posterior tracks the exact kernel-matrix posterior closely, and the gap grows gradually as input dimension increases while staying competitive with both approximate baselines. On the electricity time series our factor-graph formulation matches all three baselines in forecast accuracy while scaling linearly in the number of data points, where the exact kernel-matrix method becomes infeasible and the inducing-point baseline remains substantially slower.

Open-set source tracing is increasingly framed as a verification problem, motivating the use of pairwise metric-learning objectives from biometrics. We thus compare global anchoring and pairwise verification under matched backbones and a fixed data and epoch budget on MLAAD (in-domain) and STOPA (out-of-domain). In our runs, global anchoring yields lower in-domain error (8.61% EER) than pairwise variants (12-15% EER), even with rival mining and XLS-R finetuning. Because pairwise objectives optimize similarity directly, they concentrate variance into fewer embedding directions, reducing resolution among closely related generators. To test if this drives the drop, we impose a similar bottleneck to the globally supervised baseline, yet the baseline remains competitive. Together with an embedding-space analysis ($k_{99}$), these results suggest that the gap is not explained by dimensionality alone, but rather by the pairwise objective's shaping of the retained directions.

We propose a framework for the Markov chain (MC) choice model with panel data, including parameter estimation, personalized choice prediction, and personalized assortment optimization. In contrast to the traditional setting, which assumes that each transaction is independently drawn from a random utility model, our framework accounts for dependencies among transactions for the same customer in historical data, captured by partial-ordering preference information. To the best of our knowledge, our framework initiates the study of choice modeling with panel data under MC. As our primary result, we propose novel expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms for MC parameter estimation by incorporating partial-ordering-based customer preference information. On synthetic datasets and the sushi dataset, our EM algorithms outperform the traditional EM algorithm of Simsek and Topaloglu (Operations Research, 66, 2018) and multinomial-logit-based partial-order benchmarks adapted from Jagabathula and Vulcano (Management Science, 64, 2018). As our secondary contribution, we present hardness and computational results for conditional choice prediction and assortment optimization problems. These results complement our estimation framework and clarify the computational landscape of conditional choice and assortment optimization, which may be of independent interest.

Statistical matching combines partially overlapping datasets that share covariates $X$ but observe the target $Y$ and auxiliary variables $Z$ separately. Classical approaches typically invoke the conditional independence assumption (CIA), which makes the problem identifiable but fundamentally implies that the imported auxiliary variable provides no additional predictive power for $Y$ once $X$ is known. To capture this latent $Y$--$Z$ dependence, we propose a novel dependency-aware Schrödinger bridge for predictive statistical matching. Our approach couples the two separated databases by tilting the conservative CIA baseline with a transportation-based compatibility cost, recovering an informative joint distribution. The resulting statistical learning framework yields full probabilistic posterior rules for bidirectional imputation. Theoretically, we establish a sufficient condition under which the learned bridge strictly improves over the CIA baseline, alongside an exact joint recovery guarantee in the Gaussian setting under an appropriate cost. Across synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets (CelebA and Adult), we demonstrate that our dependency-aware completion consistently improves downstream predictive utility, proving especially beneficial in settings like data recoding where the underlying population exhibits strong $Y$--$Z$ dependence.

Generating high-fidelity synthetic GPS trajectories is increasingly important for applications in transportation, urban planning, and what-if scenario simulation, especially as privacy concerns limit access to real-world mobility data. Existing trajectory generation models face a trade-off between efficiency and faithfulness to road network topology: continuous-space methods enable fast generation but ignore the road network, while topology-aware approaches rely on search-based autoregressive decoding that limits generation speed. We propose TrajDLM, a topology-aware trajectory generation framework based on block diffusion language models that bridges this gap. TrajDLM models trajectories as sequences of discrete road segments, combining a block diffusion backbone for efficient denoising, topology-aware embeddings from a road network encoder, and topology-constrained sampling to ensure coherent and realistic trajectories. Across three city-scale datasets, TrajDLM achieves strong performance on fine-grained local similarity metrics while being up to $2.8\times$ faster than prior work, and demonstrates strong zero-shot transfer across domains, including unseen transportation modes. These results highlight the effectiveness of block-wise discrete diffusion as a scalable approach to accurate and efficient trajectory generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/TrajDLM/

Outlier Exposure (OE) is among the strongest training-based OOD detectors on standard benchmarks but exhibits scorer-dependent tradeoffs (e.g., strong on MSP, weak on KNN) and requires curated auxiliary data. We show why OE works: its features sit at the same geometric locus as real near-OOD data, with the boundary-adjacent quartile driving nearly all of OE's gain. OE is boundary calibration, not OOD coverage. GEODE (GEOmetry-preserving DEtection) replicates this calibration synthetically through an angle-adaptive norm loss in which targets scale per-sample with cosine similarity to the nearest class mean, preserving feature geometry where boundary structure matters. Four theorems grounded in neural collapse justify the design. GEODE works across all seven standard scorers on CIFAR-10 (near-OOD AUROC 89.0-92.3, far-OOD reaching 93.05; no catastrophic failure on any scorer). Since the OOD regime is unknown at deployment, this is the test that matters. GEODE outperforms vanilla CE at matched epoch counts. Combined with OE, GEODE reaches 95.0 MSP / 94.8 KNN on CIFAR-10 and beats OE on every scorer on CIFAR-100. The gains hold on WRN-28-10 (+4.5 Energy, 3 seeds). Unlike methods that push OOD into the classifier null space (e.g., PFS, 14.38 KNN AUROC, worse than random), GEODE's adaptive target preserves the geometry that distance-based scorers depend on.

Preference-based reinforcement learning offers a scalable alternative to manual reward engineering by learning reward structures from comparative feedback. However, large-scale preference datasets, whether collected from crowdsourced annotators or generated by synthetic teachers, often contain heterogeneous and partially conflicting supervision, including disagreement across annotators and inconsistency within annotators. Existing reward learning methods typically fit a single reward model to such data, forcing it to average incompatible signals and thereby limiting robustness. To solve this, we propose PrefMoE, a mixture-of-experts reward learning framework for robust preference modeling. PrefMoE learns multiple specialized reward experts and uses trajectory-level soft routing to combine them adaptively, enabling the model to capture diverse latent preference patterns under noisy and heterogeneous preference supervision. A load-balancing regularizer further stabilizes training by preventing expert collapse. Across locomotion benchmarks from D4RL and manipulation tasks from MetaWorld, PrefMoE improves preference prediction robustness and leads to more reliable downstream policy learning than strong single-model baselines.

Optical chemical structure recognition (OCSR) translates molecular images into machine-readable representations like SMILES strings or molecular graphs, but remains challenging in real-world documents due to inexhaustible variations in chemical structures, shorthand conventions, and visual noise. Most existing deep-learning-based approaches rely on teacher forcing with token-level Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). This training paradigm suffers from exposure bias, as models are trained under ground-truth prefixes but must condition on their own previous predictions during inference. Moreover, token-level MLE objectives hinder the optimization towards molecular-level evaluation criteria such as chemical validity and structural similarity. Here we introduce Minimum Risk Training (MRT) to OCSR and propose COMO (Closed-loop Optical Molecule recOgnition), a closed-loop framework that mitigates exposure bias by directly optimizing over molecule-level, non-differentiable objectives, by iteratively sampling and evaluating the model's own predictions. Experiments on ten benchmarks including synthetic and real-world chemical diagrams from patent and scientific literature demonstrate that COMO substantially outperforms existing rule-based and learning-based methods with less training data. Ablation studies further show that MRT is architecture-agnostic, demonstrating its potential for broad application to end-to-end OCSR systems.

Time-Varying Bayesian Optimization (TVBO) is the go-to framework for optimizing a time-varying, expensive, noisy black-box function $f$. However, most of the asymptotic guarantees offered by TVBO algorithms rely on the assumption that observations are acquired at a constant frequency. As the GP inference complexity scales with the cube of its dataset size, this assumption is unrealistic in the long run. In this paper, we relax this assumption and derive the first upper regret bound that explicitly accounts for changes in the observations sampling frequency. Based on this analysis, we formulate practical recommendations about dataset sizes and stale data policies of TVBO algorithms. We illustrate how an algorithm (BOLT) that follows these recommendations performs better than the state-of-the-art of TVBO through experiments on synthetic and real-world problems.

We consider streaming principal component analysis when the stochastic data generating model is subject to perturbations. While existing models assume a fixed covariance, we adopt a robust perspective where the covariance matrix belongs to a temporal uncertainty set. Under this setting, we provide fundamental limits on convergence of any algorithm recovering principal components. We analyze the convergence of the noisy power method and Oja's algorithm, both studied for the stationary data generating model, and argue that the noisy power method is rate-optimal in our setting. Finally, we demonstrate the validity of our analysis through numerical experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Language models trained for clinical disease inference are trained on patient data, which may include sensitive and private information, and data owners may request the removal of their data from a trained model due to privacy or copyright concerns. However, exactly unlearning patient-specific data is intractable, and retraining with minor data removal is resource-intensive. While there exists several machine unlearning methods that can be used, their utility is generally restricted to non-medical domains. Moreover, the existing benchmarks for evaluating such unlearning methods primarily utilize synthetically curated datasets, which are not truly representative of real-world systems. Hence, the effectiveness of these unlearning methods in the medical domain is largely unclear. To this end, we introduce REMEDI, an extensive benchmark for machine unlearning tailored to multi-label and multiclass clinical disease inference, where label correlations, longitudinal structure, and safety constraints make unlearning particularly challenging. Unlike the existing benchmarks, REMEDI considers: (1) a relevant application domain (medical), (2) comprehensive unlearning setups involving diverse sets of forget instances, (3) challenging unlearning scenarios including multi-label and multi-class classification tasks, and (4) evaluation metrics involving performance both in terms of utility and extent of unlearning achieved. REMEDI is developed using the MIMIC-III clinical database that contains comprehensive clinical data of patients. Experiments with existing unlearning methods indicate that there exists a trade-off between utility and unlearning performance. They are also largely unsuited to multi-label classification tasks. To facilitate reproducibility, we make our benchmark publicly available.

Bimanual coordination is essential for many real-world manipulation tasks, yet learning bimanual robot policies is limited by the scarcity of bimanual robots and datasets. Single-arm robots, however, are widely available in research labs. Can we leverage them to train bimanual robot policies? We present MonoDuo, a framework for learning bimanual manipulation policies using single-arm robot demonstrations paired with human collaboration. MonoDuo collects data by teleoperating a single-arm robot to perform one side of a bimanual task while a human performs the other, then swapping roles to cover both sides. RGB-D observations from a wrist-mounted and fixed camera are augmented into synthetic demonstrations for target bimanual robots using state-of-the-art hand pose estimation, image and point cloud segmentation, and inpainting. These synthetic demonstrations, grounded in real robot kinematics, are used to train bimanual policies. We evaluate MonoDuo on five tasks: box lifting, backpack packing, cloth folding, jacket zipping, and plate handover. Compared to approaches relying solely on human bimanual videos, MonoDuo enables zero-shot deployment on unseen bimanual robot configurations, achieving success rates up to 70%. With only 25 target robot demonstrations, few-shot finetuning further boosts success rates by 65-70% over training from scratch, demonstrating MonoDuo's effectiveness in efficiently transferring knowledge from single-arm robot data to bimanual robot policies.

Two-sample tests have been extensively employed in various scientific fields and machine learning to discriminate whether two sets of samples come from the same distribution or not. Kernel-based procedures for hypothetical testing have been proposed to efficiently disentangle high-dimensional complex structures in data to obtain accurate results in a model-free way by embedding the data into the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). While the choice of kernels plays a crucial role for their performance, little is understood about how to choose kernel especially for small datasets. Here we construct a hypothetical test which can be effective even for small datasets, based on the theoretical foundation of kernel-based tests using maximum mean discrepancy, which is called MMD-FUSE. We enhance the MMD-FUSE framework by incorporating quantum kernels and propose a novel hybrid testing strategy that fuses classical and quantum kernels. This approach creates a powerful and adaptive test by combining the domain-specific inductive biases of classical kernels with the unique expressive power of quantum kernels. We evaluate our method on various synthetic and real-world clinical datasets, and our experiments reveal two key findings: 1) With appropriate hyperparameter tuning, MMD-FUSE with quantum kernels consistently improves test power over classical counterparts, especially for small and high-dimensional data. 2) The proposed hybrid framework demonstrates remarkable robustness, adapting to different data characteristics and achieving high test power across diverse scenarios. These results highlight the potential of quantum-inspired and hybrid kernel strategies to build more effective statistical tests, offering versatile tools for data analysis where sample sizes are limited.

Circulating-tumour DNA (ctDNA) carries evidence of drug resistance months before imaging shows it, but the earliest evidence lives below the assay's limit of detection (LoD): a nascent subclone is detected only intermittently, producing a flickering sequence of faint detects and non-detects. Commercial liquid biopsies treat each draw as an independent snapshot and a non-detect as nothing. We argue a non-detect is a left-censored observation, and the pattern of non-detects and faint detects over time carries actionable evidence of growth before any single value is trustworthy. We introduce Span, a censored-Poisson Bayesian latent-growth change-point detector that models the binary detection process, accumulates a sequential generalised-likelihood-ratio statistic for an upward change-point in the per-variant detection rate, and raises a competing-risks alarm with calibrated false-alarm control. Span has no learned weights, so there is nothing to overfit. On a synthetic cohort of HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer on first-line CDK4/6-inhibitor plus endocrine therapy, at a matched 10% false-alarm rate, Span roughly doubles the fraction of impending progressions caught three months ahead (indolent regime: 25% vs 11% for the snapshot), with a falsifiable dose-response: large for indolent emergence, vanishing for fast emergence. A value-trajectory baseline performs identically to the snapshot, isolating the gain to the censored detection model. The survival backbone matches a Cox baseline on real breast-cancer data (GBSG-2, n=686; C-index 0.67 vs 0.68), and on a real longitudinal cohort with clean biomarkers (PBC2, n=312) the same pipeline correctly declines to win, a falsifiable boundary test confirming the mechanism is regime-specific. All ctDNA trajectories are synthetic.

Generative engines such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity answer buyer questions directly and name a shortlist of brands inside the answer. Studying how brands enter or fail to enter that shortlist requires demand-side data: what buyers in a category ask, what information they need, and which sources they trust. Existing large persona corpora are built for training-data diversity and carry neither a staged search-intent label nor a preferred-sources field, so they cannot be joined to supply-side recommendation measurements. We built and validated PersonaGen-1M, a corpus of 1,031,732 synthetic buyer personas spanning 511 industry labels and 4 market contexts, carrying 19,416,821 structured behavioral attributes, 5,160,046 of them search queries. Each persona carries a single primary_intent label covering its query set (78.3% informational, 17.4% commercial, 4.3% transactional) and a preferred_sources field naming the source types that buyer would trust. The corpus was built from roughly 40 million raw persona descriptions drawn from four public datasets through GPU-accelerated MinHash LSH plus semantic deduplication, then enriched to a fixed schema. The intent field selects the commercial-evaluation personas whose queries drive recommendation, and the preferred_sources field pairs against citation-provenance data; that join is the primary intended use, and its controlled empirical estimate is future work. Among million-scale persona corpora surveyed in August 2026, one other carries a source-preference attribute, as a six-value media-channel enum; PersonaGen-1M pairs named per-persona source lists with a staged commercial search-intent label and an attached query set. The full corpus is shared on request for non-commercial research; a stratified subset is published openly so the protocol, the schema and the validation can be inspected and reused without asking us.

We put forth a critical theoretical framework for analyzing generative models both descriptively and normatively. Our thesis is that generative models automate the production not only of intellectual labor or intelligence, but of a broader set of human social capacities we name "social doing." We do this by historicizing the commodification of sociality in the digital economy, leading to the availability of social data as the precondition for generative models. We elaborate our definition of "social doing" by drawing a distinction between "use" and "exchange" sociality and further differentiate between the ways that generative models either substitute for or mediate existing social relations and processes. We then turn to existing empirical research on how people use generative model-based products and the effects that their use has upon them. In this, we introduce the concept of Synthetic Sociality, a social reality in part fabricated by Silicon Valley's privately owned and undemocratically governed generative models. Lastly, we offer a normative analysis based on our findings and framework, and discuss future design opportunities.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are capable of generalizing human language for the completion of never-before-seen tasks, leading to widespread deployment. While this automation provides clear utility, completing these tasks often requires the insertion of Personally Identifiable Information (PII), strings of information that uniquely identify some individual, raising privacy concerns. However, ethics has prevented the curation of a public, authentic dataset of PII. Without an appropriate dataset, it is difficult to quantify privacy risks. Thus, we introduce the PANOPTICON pipeline and dataset. The dataset, generated by Meta's Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct model, contains 67, 718 prompts, intended for the models context window, containing PII spans derived from 9,674 publicly available synthetic user profiles. We measure lexical diversity and S-BERT diversity of the created dataset to evaluate realism. Finally, we present a case study showcasing the utility of PANOPTICON data for understanding Prompt Inversion Attacks (PIAs). PANOPTICON thus emerges as the first benchmark dataset for studying PIAs over private corpora, providing a foundation for future LLM privacy research.

Single-shot fringe projection profilometry (FPP) networks that regress depth directly can exploit a shape-prior shortcut, recovering depth from object boundaries rather than from fringe phase. On a photorealistic synthetic benchmark (15,600 fringe images, 50 objects at 1.5-2.1 m standoff), the best such UNet baseline plateaus at 14.54 mm object mean absolute error (MAE), and neither more data nor more capacity removes the shortcut, because neither changes the hypothesis space the optimizer searches. We introduce PhiCalNet, which outputs a wrapped-phase representation $(\sinφ, \cosφ)$ and maps it to depth through a fixed differentiable calibration layer, removing the shape-prior solution architecturally rather than by a loss penalty. Because the single-shot mapping is non-injective without fringe order, PhiCalNet takes the fringe order as auxiliary input, an assumption a sensitivity analysis shows tolerates realistic decoding error; a physics-informed (PINN) baseline with the same physics as a soft penalty yields no gain, isolating the architectural choice as the operative factor. PhiCalNet reduces object MAE 3.3x to 4.46 mm, its residual confined to 0.103% of pixels at the $\pmπ$ wrap discontinuity, and a three-frame extension reaches 1.16 mm. Two checks agree: interpretability makes phase the most decodable internal feature, and pixel-wise conformal uncertainty quantification, to our knowledge the first for FPP, localizes error at the same discontinuity, where rejecting the top 5% of pixels by snapshot disagreement cuts root-mean-square error by 64% versus 3.5% for the baseline.

Accurate forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) in regional seas such as the East Sea is crucial for monitoring marine ecosystems, assessing climate risks, managing fisheries, and conducting naval operations. Traditional numerical ocean models provide reliable predictions but are computationally expensive and often unsuitable for real-time forecasting. Many deep learning methods also struggle with high-dimensional spatiotemporal ocean data and experience error accumulation over longer forecasting periods. This study builds on our previously proposed Adaptive Next-Generation Reservoir Computing (Adaptive NVAR) framework, initially introduced and tested on synthetic dynamical systems, and extends it to ocean forecasting. We present a reduced-order forecasting framework that combines Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) with Adaptive NVAR to predict SST dynamics in the East Sea. SST fields are compressed into a low-dimensional representation using SVD, which extracts dominant modes of ocean variability. Adaptive NVAR models the temporal evolution of these latent states, and the predicted states are reconstructed into SST forecasts. We evaluate the framework using regional ocean datasets and compare it with the standard NG-RC/NVAR. Results show that Adaptive NVAR consistently achieves lower forecasting errors across multiple prediction horizons. In addition, SVD reduces computational complexity, resulting in a fast and scalable framework suitable for real-time ocean forecasting.

Missing value imputation is a fundamental task in machine learning, with most existing methods assuming that all missing entries correspond to unobserved regular values. In many real-world datasets, however, missingness may arise from two distinct sources: some entries are meaningfully missing (intrinsically absent and semantically valid), while others are missing due to the observation process and should be imputed. We formalize this distinction as a selective imputation problem, where the goal is to jointly infer which missing entries should be preserved and which should be recovered. To address this challenge, we propose Diff-Joint, a diffusion-based framework that jointly models tabular data together with a latent missingness mask. The method alternates between conditional sampling and uncertainty-aware aggregation to iteratively refine both imputed values and missingness labels. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Diff-Joint effectively identifies meaningfully missing entries while achieving competitive imputation accuracy and improved downstream task performance.

In nature, events that affect some individuals or groups but not others constitute an implicit intervention and are known as natural experiments. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic was an intervention by the coronavirus on the sub-population infected with COVID. We ask, do natural experiments occur in existing real-world datasets? If yes, how should we treat them? To detect natural experiments in data, we use causal discovery to recover the underlying causal graph and perform feature selection based on causal links. If downstream performance improves by treating the data as interventional rather than observational, we argue that this suggests the dataset contains natural experiments. We first validate this hypothesis by simulating datasets with and without natural experiments using synthetic graphs. We then perform a systematic empirical evaluation on a large suite of real-world datasets. Our results indicate that real-world datasets do contain natural experiments and we can take advantage of those natural experiments to improve model performance using causal inference. Our work represents the initial foray into this area, offering a preliminary exploration within a limited scope.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have recently become a central direction in embodied AI, but current systems are restricted to either dual-gripper control or single-arm dexterous hand manipulation. While low-dimensional gripper control can often be handled with simpler methods, high-dimensional dexterous hand control benefits greatly from full end-to-end VLA learning. In this work, we introduce Dexora, the first open-source VLA system that natively targets dual-arm, dual-hand high-DoF manipulation. We design a hybrid teleoperation pipeline that decouples gross arm kinematics (captured with a custom exoskeleton backpack) from fine finger motion (markerless hand tracking via Apple Vision Pro), and that drives both a physical dual-arm dual-hand platform and an identical MuJoCo digital twin. Using that interface, we assemble a large training corpus: an embodiment-matched synthetic corpus (100K simulated trajectories, 6.5M frames) and a real-world dataset of 10K teleoperated episodes (2.92M frames). To mitigate noisy teleoperation demonstrations, we propose a data-quality-aware training recipe: an offline discriminator provides clip-level weights for diffusion-transformer policy training, down-weighting low-quality demonstrations. Empirically, Dexora outperforms competitive VLA baselines on both basic and dexterous benchmarks (e.g., average dexterous success 66.7% vs. 51.7%), attains 90% success on basic tasks, and shows robust out-of-distribution and cross-embodiment generalization. Ablations confirm the importance of real data and the discriminator for dexterity.

Mobile crowdsensing (MCS) is a distributed sensing architecture that utilizes existing sensors on mobile units (MUs) to perform sensing tasks. A mobile crowdsensing platform (MCSP) publishes the sensing tasks and the MUs decide whether to participate in exchange for money. The MCS system is dynamic: the task requirements, the MUs' availability, and their available resources change over time. The MUs aim to find an efficient task participation strategy to maximize their income while the MCSP focuses on maximizing the number of completed tasks. As optimal strategies require perfect non-causal information about the MCS system, which is unavailable in realistic scenarios, the main challenge is to find an efficient task participation strategy for the MUs under incomplete information. To this end, a novel fully decentralized federated deep reinforcement learning algorithm, FDRL-PPO, is proposed. FDRL-PPO enables every MU to learn its own task participation strategy based on its experiences, available resources, and preferences, without relying on perfect non-causal information about the MCS system. To replenish their batteries, the MUs rely on energy harvesting. As a result, their available energy varies over time, leading to varying availability and fragmented learning experiences. To mitigate these challenges, the proposed approach leverages federated learning, enabling MUs to collaboratively improve their models without sharing private raw data like their own experiences. By exchanging only learned models, MUs collectively compensate for individual limitations, and find more scalable, robust, and efficient task participation strategies. Comprehensive evaluations on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that FDRL-PPO consistently outperforms benchmark algorithms in terms of task completion ratio, fairness in task completion, energy consumption, and number of conflicting proposals.

Design-to-code translates high-fidelity UI designs into executable front-end implementations, but progress remains hard to compare due to inconsistent datasets, toolchains, and evaluation protocols. We introduce 1D-Bench, a benchmark grounded in real e-commerce workflows, where each instance provides a reference rendering and an exported intermediate representation that may contain extraction errors. 1D is short for one day, representing the efficient completion of design-to-code tasks in less than one day. Models take both as input, using the intermediate representation as structural cues while being evaluated against the reference rendering, which tests robustness to intermediate representation defects rather than literal adherence. 1D-Bench requires generating an executable React codebase under a fixed toolchain with an explicit component hierarchy, and defines a multi-round setting in which models iteratively apply component-level edits using execution feedback. Experiments on commercial and open-weight multimodal models show that iterative editing generally improves final performance by increasing rendering success and often improving visual similarity. We further conduct a pilot study on post-training with synthetic repair trajectories and reinforcement learning based editing, and observe limited and unstable gains that may stem from sparse terminal rewards and high-variance file-level updates. The data and scripts used in this study are available in an anonymized repository at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/d2c-benchmark-A9C4/.

Existing approaches to post-train models for long-context tasks face complementary limitations: (i) supervised fine-tuning (SFT) provides stable supervision but suffers from exposure bias; (ii) reinforcement learning methods such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) train on model-generated trajectories but struggle with long-horizon credit assignment and sparse rewards; and (iii) on-policy distillation (OPD) provides dense token-level guidance but does not directly optimize task rewards. We study these complementary strategies for long-context alignment and derive a recipe that combines GRPO with OPD-style teacher guidance: the student learns from its own rollouts using outcome-level rewards, while a stronger teacher provides dense token-level regularization in place of the standard reference policy. This is especially useful when process-level supervision is difficult to obtain. To support this study, we introduce LongBlocks, a synthetic multilingual dataset spanning multi-hop reasoning, contextual grounding, and long-form generation. Through controlled ablations, we isolate the roles of cold-start initialization, teacher anchoring, and data mixing, showing that our recipe yields a more stable and effective path to long-context reasoning than GRPO or OPD while preserving short-context capabilities.

Avalanche forecasting requires knowledge of snowpack conditions and recent avalanche activity, but field observations are sparse across large mountain regions. We explore whether SNOWPACK simulations can predict avalanche activity mapped by synthetic aperture radar (SAR). We compiled five winters of Sentinel-1 avalanche detections across Norway and parts of Sweden, alongside SNOWPACK simulations forced by numerical weather predictions on a 20 x 20 km grid at different elevations and predefined slope angles. A transformer used five days of SNOWPACK outputs to predict the following day's SAR-detected Avalanche Activity Index (SAR-AAI). This index weights larger debris more heavily, spreads detections across possible occurrence dates and normalises by modelled runout area. The model was trained on four winters and evaluated on one validation winter. Regional mean predicted and reference SAR-AAI correlated at r = 0.803 after averaging over complete six-day periods. The model followed broad changes in time and space but produced smoother predictions and underestimated the strongest activity. Agreement at the 20 km cell scale was weaker (r = 0.549) after the same averaging. These results come from a single training run without evaluation on an untouched winter. Satellite observations also contain missed and false detections and uncertain timing. The results therefore do not establish operational forecast skill, but suggest that regional SNOWPACK simulations contain information about broad variations in satellite-observed avalanche activity.

Most medical AI benchmarks measure whether a model knows the correct answer. MedFailBench asks a different question: which safety boundary failed? We present a clinician-built synthetic benchmark and failure atlas that labels medical AI errors by severity (1--5) and safety gate type (missed urgent escalation, unsafe remote dosing, unsafe discharge reassurance, evidence fabrication, unsafe protocol execution, source support gap). The current public release (v0.2.1) contains 44 clinician-reviewed synthetic cases with severity annotations, a live HuggingFace leaderboard preview, a safety gate taxonomy, a clinical severity rubric, and an automated pipeline for archiving model-response screening runs. No patient data, clinical validation claims, or model rankings are included. MedFailBench is released under Apache-2.0 and CC-BY-4.0 and carries the Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21205535.