Accurate Flood Prediction

Geospatial foundation models can provide strong flood-segmentation performance, but their size limits deployment on memory-constrained edge hardware. We distill a 300-million-parameter Prithvi-EO-2.0 teacher, fine-tuned on the 252 manually labeled Sen1Floods11 training scenes, into a 0.7-million-parameter EfficientViT-B0 student. The teacher supervises additional unlabeled Sentinel-2 imagery, allowing the student training set to grow without new manual annotations. At the matched budget of 252 scenes, teacher-supervised training is competitive with direct training and improves STURM-Flood performance across tested configurations; a geometry-matched control shows that label source alone does not explain the difference. Scaling the teacher-supervised pool to 2,500 scenes narrows the remaining student--teacher gap: the float student reaches 0.787 water intersection over union on the Sen1Floods11 test split against 0.822 for the teacher, matches the teacher on STURM-Flood under our evaluation protocol, and remains below it on WorldFloods-v2. After activation replacement and quantization-aware training, the student runs as a 1.5-megabyte 8-bit integer (INT8) TensorRT engine on a Jetson Xavier NX at 5.57 milliseconds of graphics processing unit (GPU) compute per 512-by-512 image, with approximately 14 megabytes of runtime device memory. A fixed modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) threshold is competitive with both models on the two clean external benchmarks, so we interpret those benchmarks as generalization tests rather than as evidence of learned-model superiority over a spectral rule. The results support the conclusion: foundation-model supervision can amplify a fixed manual annotation budget into a substantially larger training set and yield a compact, deployable edge model.

Next-day wildfire prediction requires models whose forecasts can be evaluated alongside the assumptions and historical evidence used in their computation. Although deep learning can learn spatial patterns from remote-sensing data, predictive performance alone does not establish physical fidelity or operational trustworthiness. This study investigates three modular augmentations for next-day active-fire prediction: wind- and slope-conditioned attention biases, physics-feature retrieval-augmented output correction, and fire conditioned dual-stream gating. The attention biases expose prescribed directional preferences, while the retrieval module selects historical tiles using a nine-dimensional environmental and fire-state descriptor and applies a learned correction to a frozen model's logits. The modules are evaluated across five backbones on the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, using staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The three-seed mean F1 score and area under the precision--recall curve (AUC-PR) of a SwinUNETR model with all three augmentations are 0.4216 and 0.3673. Then, a mixed ensemble (two augmented architectures and one non-augmented architecture) model achieves 0.4292 and 0.3790. Benefits vary across architectures, and retrieval-related improvements in AUC-PR do not consistently translate into higher F1. The constructed wind bias aligns closely with input wind, but its alignment with observed next-day fire displacement is much weaker, distinguishing prior inspectability from predictive physical fidelity. The study contributes a framework for exposing and evaluating selected domain-informed components within wildfire prediction models. Together, the results presented show that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality need not be competing objectives.

Continuous monitoring of water surface elevation across river networks is critical for flood forecasting, water resource management, and understanding the global water cycle. Yet, the scarcity of in situ gauges across much of the globe constrains the development of reliable modeling frameworks. Satellite altimetry has the potential to alleviate this problem but its use is currently hindered by sparse temporal coverage. To this end, we introduce AmazonSWE, a dataset for training and evaluating large-scale spatiotemporal graph imputation methods that integrates processed satellite altimetry measurements from a range of sources, including the recent wide-swath SWOT sensor. The dataset covers over 19K river sections and 10 years (2016-2026) in the Amazon river basin, with in situ gauges held out for evaluation. Besides contributing a novel real-world use case with the potential for societal impact, AmazonSWE introduces significant technical challenges: with fewer than 1% of sections observed per day, the dataset is far sparser than existing imputation benchmarks, and its directed acyclic river topology is both structurally different from and larger than graphs in existing datasets. We show that prior spatiotemporal graph imputation methods are not adapted to this topology, scale and sparsity, and propose a simple bidirectional selective state space model that outperforms them by sampling connected subgraphs and flattening space and time into a single token sequence with topology-aware positional encodings. Compared to the state-of-the-art published method for SWOT-based WSE densification, which integrates statistics with physical modeling, our model reduces RMSE against in situ gauges by 18-39%, while producing predictions for every river section rather than only those with sufficient nearby satellite coverage.

Predicting storm surge induced by landfalling tropical cyclones is crucial for flood mitigation and coastal risk management. Traditionally, physics-based numerical models simulate storm surge by solving the Navier--Stokes equations using numerical methods, but these simulations are computationally expensive. Generative models are promising for storm surge emulation because they can generate diverse realizations rather than producing a single deterministic prediction. However, their use for storm surge emulation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage diffusion models for storm surge surrogate modeling, combining a baseline prediction stage with conditional generation to provide a more interpretable modeling framework. We develop SurgeGen, a two-stage generative framework for generating storm surge scenarios conditioned on hypothetical storms with parameters defined in a continuous space. First, a baseline model produces a coarse estimate of the storm surge height. This estimate then conditions a diffusion model, which generates refined storm surge scenarios that better capture spatial patterns and variability. We demonstrate that our approach can generate realistic and diverse storm surge scenarios under conditions both within and outside the training distribution.

Prediction of post-wildfire debris flows is critical for mitigating hazards to communities, infrastructure, and resources during intense rainfall in recently burned areas. However, identifying reliable machine learning models is complicated by overlapping debris-flow and non-debris-flow events in feature space, the need for model interpretability, and limited training data. This paper addresses these challenges through a systematic evaluation of machine learning models in terms of predictive performance, feature importance, and synthetic data augmentation. Using basin-scale observations of post-wildfire debris-flow events across the western United States, we compare 15 models, including the Tabular Prior-Data Fitted Network (TabPFN). Repeated stratified cross-validation shows that TabPFN achieves the highest unaugmented performance with a threat score of 0.637, closely followed by the best tree-based models. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) are used to identify the features driving predictions, revealing that short-duration rainfall intensity and storm accumulation consistently rank highest, while burn severity and terrain features contribute less. We further evaluate synthetic data augmentation using TabPFN-generated samples to address the scarcity of debris-flow observations. Synthetic augmentation improves the performance of all models except CNN, with the largest mean threat score increase of +0.041 among the deep learning models. By combining rigorous model benchmarking, interpretable feature analysis, and synthetic data augmentation, this work provides a comprehensive framework for improving post-wildfire debris-flow prediction.

Explicit onshore tsunami inundation forecasting can improve public risk awareness, but deterministically predicted inundation boundaries under highly uncertain conditions, such as near-field tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes, may falsely imply safety outside the boundaries. Consequently, current warnings primarily target coastal tsunami height, not onshore inundation. Although machine learning enables instant inundation predictions, they remain deterministic, lacking uncertainty quantification. Here, we develop a probabilistic ensemble model based on a conditional diffusion model (a type of generative AI) that reconciles accuracy with calibration. Validated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake data, our model faithfully tracks the postearthquake uncertainty decreasing over time while accurately predicting inundation depth and extent. Our framework shows that generative AI can shift tsunami forecasting from determinism to probabilism, providing a foundation for next-generation early warning.

Predicting drought risk is essential for anticipating impacts on water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and climate adaptation planning. Yet drought forecasts remain uncertain because variability can substantially alter regional precipitation and evaporative demand. Treating this variability as unstructured noise ignores the fact that internal variability has spatial, seasonal, and temporal structure and thus contains information that can be used to improve drought forecasting. We propose a deep-learning-based forecasting framework for European drought prediction and extend it with an uncertainty-aware drought bound that explicitly incorporates internal forecast variability from a large climate model ensemble. This bound represents a physically plausible lower-tail trajectory of future drought conditions and marks how severe drought could plausibly become under an unfavourable realisation of internal variability, giving adaptation planning a conservative, risk-averse reference. We compare the proposed bound with a lower bound derived from reanalysis data only and show that our proposed ensemble-informed bound is better calibrated across most regions and seasons. This is specifically true during anomalously dry conditions, when historical reanalysis alone underestimates lower-tail drought risk. Our results show that internal variability should be treated as a forecast quantity in its own right. More broadly, large ensembles provide a practical way to transfer physically plausible climate variability into machine-learning drought forecasts, yielding risk-aware bounds that are more informative for drought assessment under shifting climate conditions.

Compound flooding in managed coastal systems is influenced by hydrological conditions and water-management activity observed across multiple monitoring stations. Current forecasting models can capture temporal dependencies with low average errors, but global error metrics may conceal poor reproduction of prolonged high-water plateaus that are relevant to flood early warning. Because hydrometeorological and operational signals are distributed across heterogeneous gages, single-site records do not fully represent high-water dynamics. Nevertheless, unconstrained fusion of cross-site signals can degrade the stability of local temporal forecasts. This work proposes an anchored forecasting framework that incorporates cross-site information through state- and lead-dependent bounded residual corrections. A multi-source regime representation constructed from hydrometeorological and operational observations adaptively calibrates inter-site relationships and correction scales, enabling targeted cross-site adjustment while preserving the local temporal forecast as a stable anchor. Beyond conventional global error statistics, we evaluate event-scale high-water characteristics through the temporal alignment of forecasted and observed high-water processes. Experiments demonstrate that selectively integrating multi-station dynamic conditions improves the prediction reliability of sustained high-water plateaus while maintaining high accuracy during routine hydrological conditions, supporting flood early warning and water-management decision support.

Urban flooding poses an escalating threat to transportation infrastructure, yet no operational system provides real-time, street-level flood-depth estimates at centimeter resolution. This paper presents three vision-language models fine-tuned for continuous flood-depth estimation from street-level imagery: FloodLlama-Dense, a fully fine-tuned QLoRA baseline, and FloodLlama-MI5 and FloodLlama-MI6, interpretability-guided sparse variants that fine-tune only the top five and six causally relevant cross-attention layers identified through mechanistic interpretability analysis, respectively. Training uses an approximately 610,000-image subset of a 2.81-million-image synthetic corpus generated in Unreal Engine 5. The dataset combines single-vehicle subsets with 5 cm depth increments and mixed-vehicle subsets with 1 cm depth increments, spanning seven vehicle types, four weather conditions, and flood depths from 0 to 40 cm. FloodLlama-Dense achieves an MAE of 0.40 cm, an RMSE of 1.97 cm, and an Acc@5cm of 97.59%. Mechanistic interpretability analysis combining linear probing, logit lens, centered kernel alignment (CKA), and cross-attention entropy reveals a two-stage adaptation pattern: layers L13-L22 restructure visual representations, while depth first becomes linearly decodable at layer L23. FloodLlama-MI5 and FloodLlama-MI6 leverage this insight by fine-tuning only five or six of the eight cross-attention layers, achieving an 86-88% reduction in trainable parameters (6.55-7.86 million versus 54.4 million) with minimal accuracy loss. On a real-world benchmark, FloodLlama-MI6 achieves 98.62% accuracy, compared with 86.61% for the published STURM-FloodDepth baseline.

Deep learning surrogate models trained with mean-squared-error loss produce statistically accurate but physically unconstrained flood predictions: water may flow uphill, appear spontaneously, or smooth over street-level corridors. We develop a physics-informed training framework for CNN-LSTM models that predict urban flood depths at 15 min intervals over a 128x128 spatial grid. Three differentiable penalty terms are embedded into the loss: (i) a gravity loss penalizing depth increases against the water-surface-elevation gradient, (ii) a continuity loss enforcing local mass conservation with rainfall-adaptive thresholds, and (iii) a topography-aware false-alarm penalty modulated by the topographic wetness index (TWI). We evaluate on the Norfolk, Virginia flood dataset spanning two storm events (August 2017 and September 2022, 300 samples), with all variants trained on identical splits and robustness assessed over repeated random splits and leave-one-storm-out tests. A road-proximal evaluation restricted to a TWI-derived street mask quantifies street-level skill. The physics-constrained model achieves near-zero gravity violations (order 1e-6) and the highest street-channel recall (0.77 +/- 0.09 vs 0.44 +/- 0.10 for the unconstrained baseline), the capability most relevant to traffic routing, and its advantage more than doubles on a held-out storm; a uniform false-alarm variant attains 16% lower mean absolute error but suppresses street recall to 0.25. The TWI-modulated penalty reconciles this trade-off: it improves on the uniform variant on every metric, recovering 60% higher street recall at the lowest MAE among constrained variants and the best street-level F1. These results expose a fundamental tension between aggregate pixel-level error and application-specific physical plausibility, and show that terrain-aware loss modulation offers a principled resolution.

Operational flood forecasting depends on tacit forecaster expertise that is difficult to formalize, audit, and transfer. Although artificial intelligence methods have advanced flood prediction and model-error correction, most existing studies have not explicitly represented the tacit expert rules, review checkpoints, and workflow constraints that connect model outputs to operational warning decisions. To address this issue, we propose HydroAgent, a skill-orchestrated agent framework that embeds Large Language Models (LLMs) into a model-driven flood forecasting workflow, where each skill encodes explicit rules to bound LLM reasoning. We validated its effectiveness using five state-of-the-art LLMs in the South Yamhill River basin. Our results demonstrate that prior judgment captures observed peak flow and flood volume within 5% tolerance in 10 and 11 out of 14 events, with 5-fold cross-validation over 129 events yielding Pearson correlations of 0.62 and 0.84. Building on a high-baseline scheme library (average KGE 0.890), the guided scheme selection further improves KGE by 0.023-0.154, with simulated peak flow and flood volume falling within the prior judgment ranges for 14 and 13 out of 14 events. All five tested LLMs successfully execute the HydroAgent workflow with comparable judgment accuracy (40%-80%), while showing moderate performance variation and substantial cost differences. HydroAgent does not aim to replace human forecasters; instead, it translates their tacit expertise into an auditable and reproducible workflow, streamlining analytical steps and supporting more informed decision-making. This skill-orchestrated paradigm demonstrates how explicit rule boundaries can guide language model reasoning to complement physically based simulation in next-generation flood forecasting.

Effective flood risk management relies on accurate forecasting, yet the "black box" nature of stateof-the-art Deep Learning models creates a barrier to trust and accountability in high-stakes public safety decisions. While existing Explainable AI (XAI) methods offer local attributions, they fail to provide the verifiable, operationally meaningful causal narratives required by disaster response authorities. To address this societal challenge, we propose Context-Aware Concept Distillation (CACD), a framework developed in collaboration with domain experts to distill opaque LSTMs into interpretable, hydrology-aware surrogate models. We introduce an unsupervised pipeline to discover a "Hydrological Language" and a Residual Hypernetwork that dynamically modulates these concepts based on static basin characteristics. Evaluated on 5,203 basins globally, our model achieves high fidelity (Median NSE 0.70), significantly outperforming black-box baselines (e.g., Multi Layer Perceptrons) on unseen future data. By demonstrating that human-interpretable concepts are sufficient to reconstruct flood dynamics, this work balances AI accuracy with the transparency required for responsible environmental decision-making.

Pluvial (rainfall-driven) flooding accounts for 45% of National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims in the United States and is harder to predict than its riverine and coastal counterparts, with existing approaches limited to coarse resolution, regional domains, or computationally intensive process-based models unsuitable for daily continental-scale use. We present DELUGE, a multimodal deep learning framework for daily pluvial flood damage prediction at ~1 km resolution and national scale, trained on spatially and temporally corrected NFIP claims (2017-2022) and structured around the hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components of disaster risk. Rather than blanket coverage of the Conterminous United States (CONUS), we model the top 100 highest-claim 75 km cells, distributed nationwide and accounting for ~81% of total pluvial flood claims. Our architectural novelty is a pair of parametric modules in the hydrometeorology branch, a Value Modulator and a Temporal Modulator, conditioned on terrain descriptors and AlphaEarth foundation-model embeddings, that expose directly inspectable hydrological response parameters and provide architecture-level interpretability-by-design. Under a spatial block holdout, DELUGE outperforms tuned Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM baselines by 9% to 30% on a dollar-weighted area under the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC), a metric that emphasizes the rare, high-cost claims of greatest operational interest. Beyond DELUGE, we argue this interpretable conditioning scheme is a transferable pattern for integrating foundation-model embeddings into other geospatial prediction tasks.

Uncertainty quantification of hydrological predictions is necessary to inform operational decisions. Recent generative machine-learning methods have advanced probabilistic streamflow prediction, but have remained confined to lumped models that predict a basin outlet directly. At the same time, deterministic LSTM runoff models are increasingly applied at grid or catchment scale and routed through river networks to produce spatially continuous, physically consistent discharge fields. This technical note argues that moving probabilistic prediction from lumped to distributed models introduces a specific new requirement: the joint distribution of upstream runoff generation must be sampled jointly. In lumped inference, the model predicts the outlet distribution directly and can modulate spread from basin attributes. In distributed inference, downstream discharge is obtained by routing many upstream runoff predictions, so independent local sampling averages uncertainty away. Using Japan as a case study, we train two probabilistic basin-scale runoff LSTMs and route their runoff through a Hayami routing scheme. Randomly matching upstream ensemble members produces severely under-dispersed downstream ensembles, whereas a simple quantile matching strategy restores much of the spread of the direct basin-scale reference. The shift from lumped to distributed probabilistic hydrology therefore requires explicit attention to the spatial joint structure of runoff uncertainty.

Time series forecasting remains challenging when the underlying data contain rare but critical extreme events. This issue is particularly important in hydrologic forecasting, where streamflow distributions are often highly skewed and extreme peaks can have substantial impacts on flood monitoring, water resource management, and early warning systems. Although Transformer-based forecasting models have achieved strong performance by modeling long-range temporal dependencies, they typically treat all time points uniformly and may therefore underrepresent rare extreme patterns. In this paper, we propose the Extreme-Adaptive Transformer (Exformer), a forecasting framework designed to explicitly model temporal dependencies involving both normal and extreme events. Exformer introduces an extreme-adaptive attention mechanism composed of three sparse components: Local, Stride, and Extreme. The Local and Stride components capture short-term and periodic temporal dependencies, respectively, while the Extreme component selectively models event-aware dependencies between normal and extreme streamflow patterns. Experiments on four real-world hydrologic streamflow datasets show that Exformer achieves superior 3-day forecasting performance compared with state-of-the-art baselines. Our findings demonstrate that explicitly incorporating extreme-aware attention improves the forecasting capacity of Transformer models on imbalanced time series with rare but consequential events.

Post-hurricane damage assessment and repair scheduling can require computationally intensive simulation and optimization. This paper presents an integrated two-stage deep-learning tool for rapid damaged-line identification and repair-schedule computation. An available offline synthetic dataset for the IEEE 9500-node test feeder contains 1,700 hurricane scenarios with exposure features, grid metadata, fragility parameters, OpenDSS outputs, damaged-line labels, and Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search reference schedules. Stage 1 benchmarks MLP, ResMLP, and GraphSAGE, while Stage 2 compares MLP, DeepSets, and Set Transformer. The selected ResMLP-Set Transformer pipeline propagates Stage 1 errors into Stage 2 and achieves a damaged-job F1-score of 0.920, pairwise order agreement of 0.854, and start- and end-time mean absolute errors of 4.349 min and 4.486 min, respectively. The tool provides rapid initial repair-log decision support for new hurricane cases.

Rapid and accurate flood prediction is essential for disaster response and mitigation planning. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors in satellites are well-suited for this purpose because they operate independently of weather and daylight conditions. Although SAR-based data enable all-weather flood monitoring, distinguishing flooded land from permanent water remains a significant challenge, particularly when flooding is defined strictly as inundated land. This study provides a comprehensive comparison of convolutional neural network (CNN) and vision transformer architectures for multi-class flood segmentation using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery, specifically trained to separate flooded land from permanent water bodies and land. Three state-of-the-art (SOTA)CNN-based models, U-Net, U-Net++, and DeepLabV3 with ResNet-34 backbone, and three SegFormer variants (b0,b1,b2) were evaluated in two benchmark datasets, the ETCI NASA dataset and SenFloods11, using scene-based data splits to ensure a realistic assessment of spatial generalization. The results demonstrate that SegFormer-b2 significantly outperforms the U-Net baseline on the ETCI dataset (higher flood IoU across all 7 test scenes in the Wilcoxon signed-rank test), while after fine-tuning on Sen1Floods11, the advantage narrows to within the range of scene variability and is concentrated in spatially fragmented flood events. The study includes both qualitative and quantitative explainability techniques to visually comprehend model decisions and systematically assess prediction reliability. Qualitative analysis reveals that SegFormer-b2 produces more spatially coherent Grad-CAM activations focused on flood-relevant features, while U-Net generates more informative uncertainty estimates along flood boundaries.

Accurate loss reserving is foundational to insurer solvency, yet accelerating climate driven catastrophes systematically violate the stability assumptions on which traditional actuarial methods depend. This white paper presents a research program testing whether Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks can detect and adapt to these structural breaks faster and more accurately than Chain Ladder, Bornhuetter Ferguson, and Cape Cod methods. Using 15 plus years of regulatory development triangle data from Florida and Louisiana, enriched with NOAA hurricane intensity indices and sea surface temperatures, we hypothesize a targeted improvement of 15, 20% in reserve accuracy for catastrophe exposed years, a threshold grounded both in the prior neural network reserving literature and in the formal convergence results developed here. Beyond empirical validation, we develop a theoretical framework grounding LSTM structural break detection in probabilistic terms, providing formal performance guarantees that compensate for the limited number of catastrophe events in the test period. We document the research design, methodology, expected contributions, and a candid assessment of limitations.

Near-real-time flood depth prediction demands surrogate models that are accurate, fast, and transferable across watersheds. Supervised surrogates can match physics-based simulators in accuracy but need millions of training rows per watershed and cannot extrapolate beyond their original mesh. We propose a domain-aware coreset construction pipeline that conditions a tabular foundation model at inference time. The pipeline stratifies storms by return period and most-affected watershed, then samples hexagons with a target-aware spatial selector. With 0.7% of the per-watershed training pool, the model attains a mean $R^2$ of 0.663 across nine Houston-area watersheds, within 98.5% of the supervised reference ($R^2$ = 0.673). It transfers to held-out watersheds without task-specific retraining, staying ahead of a coreset-trained supervised baseline. On real storms it exceeds the supervised reference on a far out-of-distribution case and trails it on a mostly in-distribution one. Domain-aware coreset construction lets tabular foundation models deliver data-efficient, watershed-transferable flood predictions without per-watershed training.

Accurate and scalable flood mapping remains challenging due to limited ground observations, heterogeneous terrain conditions, and the difficulty of enforcing hydrodynamic consistency within data-driven models. This work introduces a physics-guided deep learning framework that integrates multi-modal remote sensing (Sentinel-1 SAR, Sentinel-2 optical imagery, and DEM-derived terrain features) with constraints from the depth-averaged shallow water equations (SWE). The proposed hybrid architecture combines a UNet to capture fine-scale spatial details with a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) to model basin-scale hydraulic interactions, while physics-informed residual losses ensure mass and momentum consistency. Evaluated across diverse floodplain settings, the hybrid model achieves an Intersection over Union of 0.82 and an F1 score of 0.90 for flood extent prediction, outperforming UNet-only and FNO-only baselines. Using hydrodynamic simulations as reference data, the model achieves an RMSE of 0.21 m for water depth and 0.15 m/s for flow velocity. Physics consistency is maintained, with low residuals and mass imbalance below 2.1%. Ablation studies confirm that removing physicsbased regularization significantly degrades performance, underscoring the value of physical constraints for stability and generalization. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrodynamic principles into deep learning yields more accurate, reliable, and physically coherent flood predictions, offering strong potential for operational monitoring and large-scale deployment.

Accurate flood forecasting is essential for mitigating disaster risks and protecting communities. However, purely data-driven machine learning models often struggle in data-scarce environments and may violate fundamental hydrological principles. Standard Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks can generate physically inconsistent predictions, particularly when extrapolating to extreme weather conditions. To address these limitations, we propose a Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) framework that incorporates hydrological knowledge directly into the loss function of an LSTM model. Specifically, a Trend Alignment constraint penalizes directional inconsistencies between precipitation and discharge trends, improving model robustness without requiring complex hydrodynamic equations. This regularization encourages the model to learn physically plausible hydrograph behavior, even with limited training data, while enhancing reliability during peak flood events. Experimental results show that the proposed physics-informed model outperforms a standard LSTM baseline in data-scarce settings, increasing the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) from 0.20 to 0.23 when trained on only 5% of the available data. Additional stress tests under simulated extreme climate scenarios demonstrate that the baseline model exhibits unstable behavior, whereas the physics-informed model maintains directional consistency and physical plausibility. Although accurately predicting extreme peak magnitudes remains challenging with limited data, the proposed approach substantially reduces unphysical fluctuations common in purely data-driven models. These findings demonstrate that simple physical constraints can significantly improve the reliability of deep learning models for real-time flood forecasting, offering a practical solution for ungauged basins and evolving climate conditions.

Environmental science plays a pivotal role in safeguarding ecosystems, a domain driven by large-scale, heterogeneous data. In the big data era, artificial intelligence (AI) has emerged as a transformative tool for learning patterns and supporting decision-making. This dissertation develops AI-based approaches tailored to complex environmental science problems to achieve Environmental Intelligence, studying three specific challenges. First, we focus on flood prediction and management in coastal river systems. Conventional physics-based models are computationally intensive, limiting real-time application. To overcome this, we propose a deep learning (DL)-based model, WaLeF, for water level forecasting, and a forecast-informed DL model, FIDLAr, to manage water levels. Evaluated in a flood-prone coastal system in South Florida characterized by extreme rainfall and sea level fluctuations, FIDLAr outperforms baselines in accuracy and efficiency while providing interpretable outputs. Second, we target global weather prediction, which is challenged by massive data scale. Traditional physics methods are deterministic and computationally heavy. We propose CoDiCast, a conditional diffusion model tailored for probabilistic weather forecasting. Adapted from generative AI for predictive tasks, experiments show CoDiCast achieves accurate, efficient forecasts with explicit uncertainty quantification. Lastly, we address scientific question-answering in environmental science. When answering in-domain questions, large language models (LLMs) often suffer from hallucinations due to out-of-date or limited knowledge. While retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) retrieves domain-specific knowledge, existing methods trade off accuracy, efficiency, or explainability. We propose Hypercube-RAG, built on a structured text cube framework, which successfully exhibits all three properties simultaneously.

Rainfall-induced landslides pose a growing risk worldwide as climate change intensifies extreme rainfall events. To provide sufficient evacuation time, landslide early warning systems (LEWS) for real-time disaster monitoring must estimate near-future landslide risk by integrating observed rainfall with short-term rainfall forecasts from spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Although recent landslide prediction methods have improved predictive performance using statistical and deep learning approaches, most assume accurate rainfall inputs. In operational settings, however, landslide prediction relies on rainfall forecasts, which often contain spatial displacement of rainfall fields due to forecasting uncertainties. Such displacement can alter local accumulated rainfall and degrade prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we propose a novel LEWS robust to rainfall field displacement. The key idea is to learn latent representations from rainfall and terrain data that remain stable under displacement in rainfall field motion, enabling reliable geospatial data integration for landslide risk estimation. The landslide prediction model is trained using Rainfall-Motion-Aware Contrastive Learning (RMCL), which introduces temporally correlated rainfall field perturbations to emulate forecast-induced displacement in rainfall-driven spatio-temporal environmental data streams. Experiments were conducted using two years of rainfall and terrain data across Japan, covering 19 regions with landslide events. The proposed system achieved up to 37% higher precision than state-of-the-art baselines. These results demonstrate that modeling rainfall as a moving spatial field and addressing rainfall field displacement during learning significantly improve the reliability of short-term landslide prediction in operational early warning systems.

AI-driven flood digital twins demand fast hydrodynamic surrogates for ensemble forecasting and observation assimilation. Yet even GPU-accelerated two-dimensional shallow water equation (SWE) solvers still require $\sim 55$ minutes per $96$-hour run on a $\sim 4.2$-million-active-cell metropolitan basin (the DesPlaines River basin at $30\,\mathrm{m}$ resolution), making such workloads prohibitive at native resolution. We present the Conditional Latent Dynamics Network (CLDNet): a low-dimensional latent neural ODE driven by rainfall, paired with a coordinate-based decoder conditioned on static terrain (elevation, slope, Manning roughness) that reconstructs depth and discharge at arbitrary query points. Pointwise decoding decouples memory from grid size and handles irregular watersheds natively, enabling metropolitan-scale training on a single compute node and direct queries at exact gauge coordinates without raster snapping. We evaluate CLDNet on a synthetic $250{,}000$-cell Texas benchmark and on a new DesPlaines case study of $114$ real-rainfall StageIV storms whose reference simulator we validate against United States Geological Survey (USGS) gauges at the April2013 flood-of-record (Nash--Sutcliffe efficiency $0.57$--$0.94$ on mean-recentered water-surface elevation). CLDNet roughly halves the relative root-mean-squared error of an unconditional baseline, outperforms regular-grid VAE--ConvLSTM and FNO baselines on the Texas benchmark (both presuppose a Cartesian grid and do not apply to the irregular Des~Plaines watershed), reaches a critical success index of $\approx 86\%$ at the $0.5\,\mathrm{m}$ inundation threshold, and produces a full $96$-hour basin-wide forecast in $\sim 29$ seconds -- a $\sim 115\times$ speedup.

Aging combined sewer systems in many historical cities are increasingly stressed by extreme rainfall events, which can trigger combined sewer overflows (CSO) with significant environmental and public health impacts. Forecasting the filling dynamics of overflow basins is critical for anticipating capacity exceedance and enabling timely preventive actions for CSO. We present a web-based demonstrator that integrates Deep Learning forecasting methods in both cloud and edge settings into an interactive monitoring dashboard for overflow monitoring, resilient to network outages. A video showcase is available online (https://cloud.bht-berlin.de/index.php/s/b9xt4T3SdiLBiFZ).

Accurate and efficient storm-surge emulation is essential for coastal hazard assessment, yet high-fidelity hydrodynamic models remain too expensive for large scenario ensembles and rapid evaluation under heterogeneous climate forcings. We present PACT, a peak-aware cross-attention graph transformer for efficient station-level storm-surge prediction from atmospheric forcing fields. PACT represents each forcing patch as a graph, encodes spatial structure with GraphSAGE, and uses a learned station query to aggregate node information through cross-attention rather than uniform pooling. A Transformer encoder models temporal dependence across the forcing history, and a horizon-query decoder generates lead-specific forecasts from a shared temporal memory. To better capture extreme events, we introduce a peak-aware learning strategy that couples a lightweight auxiliary peak-aware head with a tailored training objective, including a tail-focused loss on peak-dominated samples and a horizon-wise slope regularizer to encourage coherent multi-step evolution. Across multiple tide-gauge stations along the US Northeast coast, PACT outperforms a strong spatio-temporal graph neural network baseline in both RMSE and MAE. Diagnostics show improved peak fidelity and tail preservation for reanalysis and most CMIP6 datasets. PACT is also computationally efficient, requiring about 3.5~s to generate a full winter-season surge trajectory for one year after training. Under distribution shift across five CMIP6 forcings, PACT transfers well within the CMIP6 family but degrades markedly when transferring from reanalysis to climate-model forcings, highlighting a persistent reanalysis--GCM gap.

Learning informative representations from tabular data in remote sensing and environmental science is challenging due to heterogeneity, scarce labels, and redundancy among features. We present ZAYAN (Zero-Anchor dYnamic feAture eNcoding), a self-supervised, feature-centric contrastive framework for tabular data. ZAYAN performs contrastive learning at the feature rather than sample level, removing the need for explicit anchor selection and any reliance on class labels, while encouraging a redundancy-minimized, disentangled embedding space. The framework has two modules: ZAYAN-CL, which pretrains feature embeddings via a zero-anchor contrastive objective with dynamic perturbations and masking, and ZAYAN-T, a Transformer that conditions on these embeddings for downstream classification. Across eight datasets, including six remote-sensing tabular benchmarks and two remote-sensing-driven flood-prediction tables from satellite and GIS products, ZAYAN achieves superior accuracy, robustness, and generalization over tabular deep learning baselines, with consistent gains under label scarcity and distribution shift. These results indicate that feature-level contrastive learning and dynamic feature encoding provide an effective recipe for learning from tabular sensing data.

Pakistan experienced an unusually severe flood season between June and December 2025, with cascading impacts on population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Existing operational flood products (e.g., UNOSAT) provide valuable episode-level snapshots but rarely deliver spatially and temporally continuous inundation maps at near-real-time latency within the country. We present a multi-sensor, ensemble-based remote-sensing framework for continuous flood nowcasting in Pakistan that integrates Sentinel-1 SAR, Harmonized Landsat-Sentinel (HLS L30 and S30), MODIS, and VIIRS observations on a harmonized grid in Google Earth Engine. The framework employs a tiered nowcasting ensemble that prioritizes higher-resolution sensors (Sentinel-1 and HLS) and falls back to MODIS and VIIRS when necessary, preserving daily continuity of flood extent at each sensor's native resolution. Applied to the 2025 monsoon period, the system generates near-real-time, spatially consistent inundation maps across Pakistan. As a nowcasting case study, we track the super-flood of 26 August-7 September 2025 day by day, demonstrating the framework's ability to capture the evolving flood footprint in near real time and extend beyond the temporal limits of episodic mapping products. Validation against GloFAS discharge anomalies and precipitation datasets (CHIRPS v3.0, MSWEP) shows strong agreement with observed hydrometeorological conditions. By integrating nowcast outputs with exposure layers (WorldPop, ESA WorldCover, Giga-HOTOSM), the framework enables rapid estimation of affected populations, cropland, and critical infrastructure, supporting timely disaster response and resilience planning in South Asia.

The increasing frequency and severity of global flood events highlights the need for the development of rapid and reliable flood prediction tools. This process traditionally relies on computationally expensive hydraulic simulations. This research presents a prediction tool by developing a deep-learning based surrogate model to accurately and efficiently predict the maximum water level across a grid. This was achieved by conducting a series of experiments to optimize a U-Net architecture, patch generation, and data handling for approximating a hydraulic model. This research demonstrates that a deep learning surrogate model can serve as a computationally efficient alternative to traditional hydraulic simulations. The framework was tested using hydraulic simulations of the Wupper catchment in the North-Rhein Westphalia region (Germany), obtaining comparable results.

Storm surge forecasting remains a critical challenge in mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on coastal regions, particularly given recent trends of rapid intensification and increasing nearshore storm activity. Traditional high fidelity numerical models such as ADCIRC, while robust, are often hindered by inevitable uncertainties arising from various sources. To address these challenges, this study introduces StormNet, a spatio-temporal graph neural network (GNN) designed for bias correction of storm surge forecasts. StormNet integrates graph convolutional (GCN) and graph attention (GAT) mechanisms with long short-term memory (LSTM) components to capture complex spatial and temporal dependencies among water-level gauge stations. The model was trained using historical hurricane data from the U.S. Gulf Coast and evaluated on Hurricane Idalia (2023). Results demonstrate that StormNet can effectively reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) in water-level predictions by more than 70% for 48-hour forecasts and above 50% for 72-hour forecasts, as well as outperform a sequential LSTM baseline, particularly for longer prediction horizons. The model also exhibits low training time, enhancing its applicability in real-time operational forecasting systems. Overall, StormNet provides a computationally efficient and physically meaningful framework for improving storm surge prediction accuracy and reliability during extreme weather events.

According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (2025), the average annual cost of natural catastrophes increased from 70--80 billion USD between 1970 and 2000 to 180--200 billion USD between 2001 and 2020. Reports from organizations such as the IFOA and the WWF highlight the need for the insurance sector to adapt to this rapidly evolving context by developing medium- to long-term strategies that go beyond the one-year horizon of prudential regulations such as Solvency II. This paper introduces an artificial intelligence framework based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (Conditional GANs) to generate future spatio-temporal trajectories of climatic indices. The approach focuses on the Soil Wetness Index (SWI), a key indicator used in France to assess drought severity. Drought accounts for approximately 30% of the indemnities paid under the French natural catastrophe insurance scheme. The proposed model, SwiGAN, simulates plausible drought propagation patterns up to 2050 for a region of France particularly exposed to this hazard. By generating realistic sequences of SWI maps, SwiGAN provides insights into drought dynamics under climate change scenarios and supports the design of adaptive risk management and insurance strategies. The methodology is also generalizable to other climate-related perils and actuarial applications such as economic scenario generation.

Machine learning models can achieve high predictive accuracy in hydrological applications but often lack physical interpretability. The Mass-Conserving Perceptron (MCP) provides a physics-aware artificial intelligence (AI) framework that enforces conservation principles while allowing hydrological process relationships to be learned from data. In this study, we investigate how progressively embedding physically meaningful representations of hydrological processes within a single MCP storage unit improves predictive skill and interpretability in rainfall-runoff modeling. Starting from a minimal MCP formulation, we sequentially introduce bounded soil storage, state-dependent conductivity, variable porosity, infiltration capacity, surface ponding, vertical drainage, and nonlinear water-table dynamics. The resulting hierarchy of process-aware MCP models is evaluated across 15 catchments spanning five hydroclimatic regions of the continental United States using daily streamflow prediction as the target. Results show that progressively augmenting the internal physical structure of the MCP unit generally improves predictive performance. The influence of these process representations is strongly hydroclimate dependent: vertical drainage substantially improves model skill in arid and snow-dominated basins but reduces performance in rainfall-dominated regions, while surface ponding has comparatively small effects. The best-performing MCP configurations approach the predictive skill of a Long Short-Term Memory benchmark while maintaining explicit physical interpretability. These results demonstrate that embedding hydrological process constraints within AI architectures provides a promising pathway toward interpretable and process-aware rainfall-runoff modeling.

Compound flooding, driven by nonlinear interactions between multiple hydrometeorological factors, poses a significant challenge to hazard prevention. Existing forecasting approaches, whether physics-based or data-driven, often emphasize temporal patterns while underexploring how multiple interacting factors jointly shape flood dynamics. To address this problem, we conduct a large-scale data-driven analysis of compound flooding in South Florida, a typical area for compound flooding, by integrating tidal conditions, rainfall, groundwater stage, and human water management activities. Our analysis reveals three key findings: (i) models that capture temporal dynamics alone fail to represent multi-factor interactions during compound events; (ii) subsurface saturation, as reflected by groundwater levels, emerges as a dominant predictor of flood severity, often outweighing immediate rainfall intensity in this porous coastal region; and (iii) the spatial state of surrounding monitoring stations within a finite effective radius provides critical causal context for flooding, while extending temporal history yields diminishing returns during extreme events. These findings suggest that compound flooding is governed more by spatially coupled system states than by long-term temporal dependencies, challenging rain-centric and sequence-dominated forecasting paradigms. By framing data-driven models as tools for scientific inquiry rather than prediction alone, this study offers new insights into the mechanisms of compound flooding and informs the design of more physically grounded early-warning systems for coastal environments. Our dataset and code are publicly available at https://github.com/AslanDing/SFBench.