Overview

Amortized inference learns a reusable mapping from observations and model information to posterior estimates, predictions, or samples, shifting computation from each new case to training. Common approaches include simulation-based neural posterior estimation, variational encoders and normalizing flows, structured message passing, and transformer-based prior-fitted or in-context models. These methods are used in settings such as inverse problems, state-space models, survival analysis, and hierarchical statistics, often with MCMC or benchmark posteriors used to assess accuracy and calibration. The central tension is that fast single-pass inference can lose accuracy or uncertainty calibration on rare cases, shifted data, or complex posteriors, motivating test-time refinement and stronger evaluations of generalization.

Latest papers

87 papers17 papers in the last four weeks, up 113% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

May 8, 2026

It Just Takes Two: Scaling Amortized Inference to Large Sets

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose elements depend not only on the target but also on unknown factors shared across the set. Optimal inference therefore requires treating the set jointly, which in turn requires training the estimator at the deployment set size -- a regime where memory and compute quickly become prohibitive. We introduce a simple, theoretically grounded strategy that decouples representation learning from posterior modeling. Our method trains a mean-pool Deep Set on sets of size at most two, producing an encoder that generalizes to arbitrary set sizes. The inference head is then finetuned on pre-aggregated embeddings, making training cost essentially independent of the deployment set size N. Across scalar, image, multi-view 3D, molecular, and high-dimensional conditional generation benchmarks with N in the thousands, our approach matches or outperforms standard baselines at a fraction of the compute.
May 7, 2026

One Operator for Many Densities: Amortized Approximation of Conditioning by Neural Operators

Probabilistic conditioning is concerned with the identification of a distribution of a random variable XX given a random variable YY. It is a cornerstone of scientific and engineering applications where modeling uncertainty is key. This problem has traditionally been addressed in machine learning by directly learning the conditional distribution of a fixed joint distribution. This paper introduces a novel perspective: we propose to solve the conditioning problem by identifying a single operator that maps any joint density to its conditional, thus amortizing over joint-conditional pairs. We establish that the conditioning operator can be approximated to arbitrary accuracy by neural operators. Our proof relies on new results establishing continuity of the conditioning operator over suitable classes of densities. Finally, we learn the conditioning map for a class of Gaussian mixtures using neural operators, illustrating the promise of our framework. This work provides the theoretical underpinnings for general-purpose, amortized methods for probabilistic conditioning, such as foundation models for Bayesian inference.
May 5, 2026

Amortized Variational Inference for Joint Posterior and Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior distribution of model parameters, and then propagating posterior samples through the predictive model via Monte Carlo simulation. This sequential workflow can be computationally demanding, particularly for high-fidelity models such as those governed by partial differential equations. We propose a variational Bayesian framework that directly targets the posterior-predictive distribution and jointly learns variational approximations of both the posterior and the corresponding predictive distribution. The formulation introduces a variational upper bound on the Kullback--Leibler divergence together with moment-based regularization terms. The variational distributions are trained in an amortized manner, shifting computational effort to an offline stage and enabling efficient online inference. Numerical experiments ranging from analytical benchmarks to a finite-element solid mechanics problem demonstrate that the proposed method achieves more accurate predictive distributions than conventional two-stage variational inference, while substantially reducing the cost of online predictive inference.
Apr 22, 2026

Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health

Accurate condition monitoring of industrial equipment requires inferring latent degradation parameters from indirect sensor measurements under uncertainty. While traditional Bayesian methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provide rigorous uncertainty quantification, their heavy computational bottlenecks render them impractical for real-time process control. To overcome this limitation, we propose an AI-driven framework utilizing Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) powered by amortized neural posterior estimation to diagnose complex failure modes in heat exchangers. By training neural density estimators on a simulated dataset, our approach learns a direct, likelihood-free mapping from thermal-fluid observations to the full posterior distribution of degradation parameters. We benchmark this framework against an MCMC baseline across various synthetic fouling and leakage scenarios, including challenging low-probability, sparse-event failures. The results show that SBI achieves comparable diagnostic accuracy and reliable uncertainty quantification, while accelerating inference time by a factor of82×\times compared to traditional sampling. The amortized nature of the neural network enables near-instantaneous inference, establishing SBI as a highly scalable, real-time alternative for probabilistic fault diagnosis and digital twin realization in complex engineering systems.
Apr 22, 2026

Amortized Vine Copulas for High-Dimensional Density and Information Estimation

Modeling high-dimensional dependencies while keeping likelihoods tractable remains challenging. Classical vine-copula pipelines are interpretable but can be expensive, while many neural estimators are flexible but less structured. In this work, we propose Vine Denoising Copula (VDC), an amortized vine-copula pipeline for continuous-data, simplified-vine dependence modeling. VDC trains a single bivariate denoising model and reuses it across all vine edges. For each edge, given pseudo-observations, the model predicts a piecewise-constant density grid. We then apply an IPFP/Sinkhorn projection that normalizes mass and drives the marginals to uniformity. This preserves the tractable vine-likelihood structure and the usual copula interpretation while replacing repeated per-edge optimization with GPU inference. Across synthetic and real-data benchmarks, VDC delivers strong bivariate density accuracy, competitive MI/TC estimation, and faster high-dimensional vine fitting. These gains make explicit information estimation and dependence decomposition feasible when repeated vine fitting would otherwise be costly, while conditional downstream tasks remain a limitation.
Apr 21, 2026

Fast Amortized Fitting of Scientific Signals Across Time and Ensembles via Transferable Neural Fields

Neural fields, also known as implicit neural representations (INRs), offer a powerful framework for modeling continuous geometry, but their effectiveness in high-dimensional scientific settings is limited by slow convergence and scaling challenges. In this study, we extend INR models to handle spatiotemporal and multivariate signals and show how INR features can be transferred across scientific signals to enable efficient and scalable representation across time and ensemble runs in an amortized fashion. Across controlled transformation regimes (e.g., geometric transformations and localized perturbations of synthetic fields) and high-fidelity scientific domains-including turbulent flows, fluid-material impact dynamics, and astrophysical systems-we show that transferable features improve not only signal fidelity but also the accuracy of derived geometric and physical quantities, including density gradients and vorticity. In particular, transferable features reduce iterations to reach target reconstruction quality by up to an order of magnitude, increase early-stage reconstruction quality by multiple dB (with gains exceeding 10 dB in some cases), and consistently improve gradient-based physical accuracy.
Apr 20, 2026

Overcoming Selection Bias in Statistical Studies With Amortized Bayesian Inference

Selection bias arises when the probability that an observation enters a dataset depends on variables related to the quantities of interest, leading to systematic distortions in estimation and uncertainty quantification. For example, in epidemiological or survey settings, individuals with certain outcomes may be more likely to be included, resulting in biased prevalence estimates with potentially substantial downstream impact. Classical corrections, such as inverse-probability weighting or explicit likelihood-based models of the selection process, rely on tractable likelihoods, which limits their applicability in complex stochastic models with latent dynamics or high-dimensional structure. Simulation-based inference enables Bayesian analysis without tractable likelihoods but typically assumes missingness at random and thus fails when selection depends on unobserved outcomes or covariates. Here, we develop a bias-aware simulation-based inference framework that explicitly incorporates selection into neural posterior estimation. By embedding the selection mechanism directly into the generative simulator, the approach enables amortized Bayesian inference without requiring tractable likelihoods. This recasting of selection bias as part of the simulation process allows us to both obtain debiased estimates and explicitly test for the presence of bias. The framework integrates diagnostics to detect discrepancies between simulated and observed data and to assess posterior calibration. The method recovers well-calibrated posterior distributions across three statistical applications with diverse selection mechanisms, including settings in which likelihood-based approaches yield biased estimates. These results recast the correction of selection bias as a simulation problem and establish simulation-based inference as a practical and testable strategy for parameter estimation under selection bias.
Apr 8, 2026

Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows

Bayesian filtering and smoothing are central to data assimilation in nonlinear dynamical systems. Recent advances in deep generative models provide flexible approximations of the associated non-Gaussian posterior distributions. However, several existing approaches require the score to be re-estimated or a transport map to be constructed at each assimilation step. We propose an amortized framework for filtering and smoothing that reuses trained conditional models across observation sequences and assimilation times. The framework jointly learns a shared recurrent summary network and two conditional normalizing flows from simulated state and observation trajectories. The recurrent network represents each observation history by a fixed-dimensional summary that conditions the filtering approximation and, together with the next state, the backward transition approximation. An information-theoretic analysis shows that, under the Markov assumption, a summary sufficient for filtering is also sufficient for the backward kernel. Combining the terminal filtering approximation with the backward kernels yields an approximate joint smoothing distribution. Numerical experiments on advection-diffusion, Burgers, and Lorenz systems demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed filtering and smoothing approximations and characterize the evolution of their errors beyond the training horizon.
Apr 8, 2026

Instance-Adaptive Parametrization for Amortized Variational Inference

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) rely on amortized variational inference to enable efficient posterior approximation, but this efficiency comes at the cost of a shared parametrization, giving rise to the amortization gap. We propose the instance-adaptive variational autoencoder (IA-VAE), an amortized inference framework in which a hypernetwork generates input-dependent modulations of a shared encoder. This enables input-specific adaptation of the inference model while preserving the efficiency of a single forward pass. From a theoretical perspective, we show that the variational family induced by IA-VAE contains that of standard amortized inference, implying that IA-VAE cannot yield a worse optimal ELBO. By leveraging instance-specific parameter modulations, the proposed approach can achieve performance comparable to standard encoders with substantially fewer parameters, indicating a more efficient use of model capacity. Experiments on synthetic data, where the true posterior is known, show that IA-VAE yields more accurate posterior approximations and reduces the amortization gap. Similarly, on standard image benchmarks, IA-VAE consistently improves held-out ELBO over baseline VAEs, with statistically significant gains across multiple runs. These results suggest that increasing the flexibility of the inference parametrization through instance-adaptive modulation is an effective strategy for mitigating amortization-induced suboptimality in deep generative models.
Mar 31, 2026

Survival In-Context: Amortized Bayesian Survival Analysis via Prior-Fitted Networks

Survival analysis is crucial for many medical applications, but remains challenging for modern machine learning due to limited data, censoring, and the heterogeneity of tabular covariates. While the prior-fitted paradigm, which relies on pretraining models on large collections of synthetic datasets, has recently facilitated tabular foundation models for classification and regression, its suitability for time-to-event modeling remains unclear. We propose a flexible survival data generation framework that defines a rich survival prior with explicit control over covariates and time-event distributions. Building on this prior, we introduce Survival In-Context (SIC), a prior-fitted in-context learning model for survival analysis that is pretrained exclusively on synthetic data. SIC is trained to approximate Bayesian posterior predictive inference under the synthetic survival prior, enabling individualized survival prediction in a single forward pass, requiring no task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning. Across a broad evaluation on real-world survival datasets, SIC achieves competitive or superior performance compared to classical and deep survival models, particularly in small and medium-sized data regimes, highlighting the promise of a prior-fitted paradigm for survival analysis. The code and pretrained models will be made available upon publication.
Mar 25, 2026

Amortized Inference for Correlated Discrete Choice Models via Equivariant Neural Networks

Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making. Logit-based models are dominant in applied work, largely due to their convenient closed-form expressions for choice probabilities. However, they impose restrictive assumptions on the stochastic utility component, constraining our ability to capture realistic substitution patterns. We propose an amortized inference approach that relies on a neural network emulator to approximate choice probabilities for general error distributions, including those with correlated errors. We develop a specialized neural network architecture designed to respect the invariance properties of discrete choice models. We provide group-theoretic foundations for the architecture, including a proof of universal approximation given a minimal set of invariant features. Once trained, the emulator enables rapid likelihood evaluation and gradient computation. We use Sobolev training, augmenting the likelihood loss with a gradient-matching penalty, so that the emulator learns both choice probabilities and their derivatives. We show that emulator-based maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild approximation conditions, and we provide sandwich standard errors that remain valid for a psuedo-true parameter even with imperfect likelihood approximation. Simulations show significant gains over the GHK simulator in accuracy and speed.
Mar 23, 2026

Identifiability and amortized inference limitations in Kuramoto models

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in dynamical systems. However, for nonlinear oscillator networks such as Kuramoto models, widely used to study synchronization phenomena in physics, biology, and engineering, inference is often computationally prohibitive due to high-dimensional state spaces and intractable likelihood functions. We present an amortized Bayesian inference approach that learns a neural approximation of the posterior from simulated phase dynamics, enabling fast, scalable inference without repeated sampling or optimization. Applied to synthetic Kuramoto networks, the method shows promising results in approximating posterior distributions and capturing uncertainty, with computational savings compared to traditional Bayesian techniques. These findings suggest that amortized inference is a practical and flexible framework for uncertainty-aware analysis of oscillator networks.
Mar 22, 2026

Amortized Variational Inference for Logistic Regression with Missing Covariates

Missing covariate data pose a significant challenge to statistical inference and machine learning, particularly for classification tasks like logistic regression. Classical iterative approaches (EM, multiple imputation) are often computationally intensive, sensitive to high missingness rates, and limited in uncertainty propagation. Recent deep generative models based on VAEs show promise but rely on complex latent representations. We propose Amortized Variational Inference for Logistic Regression (AV-LR), a unified end-to-end framework for binary logistic regression with missing covariates. AV-LR integrates a probabilistic generative model with a simple amortized inference network, trained jointly by maximizing the evidence lower bound. Unlike competing methods, AV-LR performs inference directly in the space of missing data without additional latent variables, using a single inference network and a linear layer that jointly estimate regression parameters and the missingness mechanism. AV-LR achieves estimation accuracy comparable to or better than state-of-the-art EM-like algorithms, with significantly lower computational cost. It naturally extends to missing-not-at-random settings by explicitly modeling the missingness mechanism. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world datasets confirm its effectiveness and efficiency across various missing-data scenarios.
Mar 20, 2026

CogFormer: Learn All Your Models Once

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural networks has accelerated and transformed cognitive modeling workflows. SBI enables modelers to fit complex models that were previously difficult or impossible to estimate, while also allowing rapid estimation across large numbers of datasets. However, the utility of SBI for iterating over varying modeling assumptions remains limited: changes to parameterizations, generative functions, priors, and design variables all necessitate model retraining, thereby diminishing the benefits of amortization. To address these issues, we pilot the CogFormer, a meta-amortized framework for cognitive modeling. Our framework trains a transformer-based architecture that remains valid across a combinatorial number of structurally similar models, allowing for changing data types, parameters, design matrices, and sample sizes. We present promising quantitative results across families of decision-making models for binary, multi-alternative, and continuous responses. Our evaluation suggests that CogFormer can accurately estimate parameters across model families with minimal amortization offset, making it a potentially powerful engine that catalyzes cognitive modeling workflows.
Mar 20, 2026

Sparsely-Supervised Data Assimilation via Physics-Informed Schrödinger Bridge

Data assimilation (DA) for systems governed by partial differential equations (PDE) aims to reconstruct full spatiotemporal fields from sparse high-fidelity (HF) observations while respecting physical constraints. While full-grid low-fidelity (LF) simulations provide informative priors in multi-fidelity settings, recovering an HF field consistent with both sparse observations and the governing PDE typically requires per-instance test-time optimization, which becomes a major bottleneck in time-critical applications. To alleviate this, amortized reconstruction using generative models has recently been proposed; however, such approaches rely on full-field HF supervision during training, which is often impractical in real-world settings. From a more realistic perspective, we propose the Physics-Informed Conditional Schrödinger Bridge (PICSB), which transports an informative LF prior toward an observation-conditioned HF posterior without any additional inference-time guidance. To enable learning without HF endpoints, PICSB employs an iterative surrogate-endpoint refresh scheme, and directly incorporates PDE residuals into the training objective while enforcing observations via hard conditioning throughout sampling. Experiments on fluid PDE benchmarks demonstrate that PICSB enables extremely fast spatiotemporal field reconstruction while maintaining competitive accuracy under sparse HF supervision.
Mar 18, 2026

FalconBC: Flow matching for Amortized inference of Latent-CONditioned physiologic Boundary Conditions

Boundary condition tuning is a fundamental step in patient-specific cardiovascular modeling. Despite an increase in offline training cost, recent methods in data-driven variational inference can efficiently estimate the joint posterior distribution of boundary conditions, with amortization of training efforts over clinical targets. However, even the most modern approaches fall short in two important scenarios: open-loop models with known mean flow and assumed waveform shapes, and anatomies affected by vascular lesions where segmentation influences the reachability of pressure or flow split targets. In both cases, boundary conditions cannot be tuned in isolation. We introduce a general amortized inference framework based on probabilistic flow that treats clinical targets, inflow features, and point cloud embeddings of patient-specific anatomies as either conditioning variables or quantities to be jointly estimated. We demonstrate the approach on two patient-specific models: an aorto-iliac bifurcation with varying stenosis locations and severity, and a coronary arterial tree.
Mar 16, 2026

Scalable Simulation-Based Model Inference with Test-Time Complexity Control

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward models/hypotheses consistent with observations. Over large model families, classical Bayesian workflows for model selection are impractical. Furthermore, amortized model selection methods typically hard-code a fixed model prior or complexity penalty at training time, requiring users to commit to a particular parsimony assumption before seeing the data. We introduce PRISM, a simulation-based encoder-decoder that infers a joint posterior over both discrete model structures and associated continuous parameters, while enabling test-time control of model complexity via a tunable model prior that the network is conditioned on. We show that PRISM scales to families with combinatorially many (up to billions) of model instantiations on a synthetic symbolic regression task. As a scientific application, we evaluate PRISM on biophysical modeling for diffusion MRI data, showing the ability to perform model selection across several multi-compartment models, on both synthetic and in vivo neuroimaging data.
Mar 9, 2026

Amortized Maximum Inner Product Search with Learned Support Functions

Maximum inner product search (MIPS) is a crucial subroutine in machine learning, requiring the identification of a vector taken within a database (the keys) that best aligns with a given query. We propose amortized MIPS: a regression-based approach that trains neural networks to directly predict MIPS solutions, amortizing the cost of repeatedly solving MIPS for queries drawn from a known distribution over a fixed key database. Our key insight is that the MIPS value function is the support function of the set of keys, a well-studied convex function whose gradient yields the optimal key. This motivates two complementary amortized models: SupportNet, an input-convex neural network trained to regress the support function, and KeyNet, a vector-valued network that directly regresses the optimal key. SupportNet can serve as a cluster router, steering queries toward relevant database partitions, while KeyNet can be used as a drop-in replacement for the original query, fed directly to off-the-shelf indexing pipelines. Our experiments on the BEIR benchmark show that, for document embeddings, learned \SupportNet{}s and \KeyNet{}s significantly improve IVF match rates when accounting for compute effort, whether measured in FLOPs, number of probes, or wall-clock time. Our code is available at: https://github.com/apple/ml-amips.
Feb 26, 2026

Unsupervised Continual Learning for Amortized Bayesian Inference

Amortized Bayesian Inference (ABI) enables efficient posterior estimation using generative neural networks trained on simulated data, but often suffers from performance degradation under model misspecification. While self-consistency (SC) training on unlabeled empirical data can enhance network robustness, current approaches are limited to static, single-task settings and fail to handle sequentially arriving data or distribution shifts. We propose a continual learning framework for ABI that decouples simulation-based pre-training from unsupervised sequential SC fine-tuning on real-world data. To address the challenge of catastrophic forgetting, we introduce two adaptation strategies: (1) SC with episodic replay, utilizing a memory buffer of past observations, and (2) SC with elastic weight consolidation, which regularizes updates to preserve task-critical parameters. Across three diverse case studies, our methods significantly mitigate forgetting and yield posterior estimates that outperform standard simulation-based training, achieving estimates closer to MCMC reference, providing a viable path for trustworthy ABI across a range of different tasks.
Feb 24, 2026

Amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheet data from mobile devices

Mobile data technologies use ``actigraphs'' to furnish information on health variables as a function of a subject's movement. The advent of wearable devices and related technologies has propelled the creation of health databases consisting of human movement data to conduct research on mobility patterns and health outcomes. Statistical methods for analyzing high-resolution actigraph data depend on the specific inferential context, but the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks require that the methods be congruent to transfer learning and amortization. This article devises amortized Bayesian inference for actigraph time sheets. We pursue a Bayesian approach to ensure full propagation of uncertainty and its quantification using a hierarchical dynamic linear model. We build our analysis around actigraph data from the Physical Activity through Sustainable Transport Approaches in Los Angeles (PASTA-LA) study conducted by the Fielding School of Public Health in the University of California, Los Angeles. Apart from achieving probabilistic imputation of actigraph time sheets, we are also able to statistically learn about the time-varying impact of explanatory variables on the magnitude of acceleration (MAG) for a cohort of subjects.
Jan 30, 2026

OneFlowSBI: One Model, Many Queries for Simulation-Based Inference

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically amortize a single query, usually the posterior, so each further conditional or marginal needs its own model. Existing generalists amortize many queries in one transformer with one token per variable, so their attention cost grows quadratically with the number of variables. We introduce OneFlowSBI, a masked flow matching framework that trains one network on the joint distribution of parameters and observations. A ternary mask marks each coordinate as observed, generated or absent, so any conditional or marginal is sampled by changing the mask. The mask is an input, rather than a tokenization, so the backbone can follow the data's structure and scale to many variables. On high-dimensional image denoising and shallow water inference, OneFlowSBI achieves lower posterior error than the baselines, samples far faster than a transformer-based generalist, and handles missing regions and partial observation windows without retraining. On most of the ten SBIBM tasks at the largest simulation budget, it matches or exceeds neural posterior estimation and is comparable to transformer-based generalists, while also providing the likelihood and marginals.
Jan 12, 2026

Neural Architectures for Amortized Bayesian Inference: Statistical Foundations and Empirical Assessments

Since the turn of the century, approximate Bayesian inference has steadily evolved as new computational techniques have been incorporated to handle increasingly complex, large-scale predictive problems. The recent success of deep neural networks and foundation models has now given rise to a new paradigm in statistical modeling, in which Bayesian inference can be amortized through large-scale learned predictors. In amortized inference, substantial computation is required at the beginning to train a neural network, but it can subsequently produce approximate posteriors or predictions at much lower computational cost across a wide range of tasks. While the typical Bayesian inference procedures are computationally expensive due to repeated likelihood calculations and Monte Carlo steps for each new dataset, amortized inference provides a much lower computational cost at deployment. Despite the growing popularity of amortized inference, its statistical interpretation and position within Bayesian inference remain poorly explored. In this paper, we present a statistical perspective on several major neural architectures, including feedforward networks, Deep Sets, and Transformers, and examine how they naturally support amortized Bayesian inference. We explore how these models perform structured approximation and also probabilistic reasoning in ways that yield controlled generalization error throughout a wide range of deployment scenarios, and how these properties can be harnessed for Bayesian computation. Via simulation studies, we evaluate the accuracy, robustness, and uncertainty quantification of amortized inference across varying sample sizes, varying noise distributional families, varying sparsity levels, and multimodality, highlighting its strengths and limitations.
Dec 28, 2025

JADAI: Jointly Amortizing Adaptive Design and Bayesian Inference

We consider problems of parameter estimation where design variables can be actively optimized to maximize information gain. To this end, we introduce JADAI, a framework that jointly amortizes Bayesian adaptive design and inference by training a policy, a history network, and an inference network end-to-end. The networks minimize a generic loss that aggregates incremental reductions in posterior error along experimental sequences. Inference networks are instantiated with diffusion-based posterior estimators that can approximate high-dimensional and multimodal posteriors at every experimental step. Across standard adaptive design benchmarks, JADAI achieves superior or competitive performance.
Mar 3, 2025

ACTIVA: Amortized Causal Effect Estimation via Variational Autoencoders

Predicting post-intervention distributions from observational data is central to many scientific and decision-making problems, but remains challenging due to causal ambiguity, restrictive modeling assumptions, and the lack of amortization across tasks. We introduce ACTIVA, a transformer-based conditional variational autoencoder for amortized estimation of full interventional distributions from observational data and intervention queries. ACTIVA learns a conditional latent prior that amortizes causal knowledge across diverse training tasks, so that a new causal model drawn from the training distribution is handled in a single forward pass, without interventional data, a causal graph, or per-task fitting. Beyond the training distribution, only a parametric shift of the simulator is tested. We provide a population-level characterization of ACTIVA's estimand, showing that, under idealized expressivity and infinite samples assumptions, ACTIVA's learning objective targets a simulator-weighted mixture over the interventional distributions of causal models that are observationally compatible with the input. Empirically, on synthetic datasets and biologically realistic gene-expression simulations, ACTIVA substantially outperforms a correlational baseline, reduces spurious non-descendant effects, and achieves competitive performance relative to strong amortized baselines. On a pair of observationally equivalent models sharing a single observational dataset, ACTIVA recovers the predicted mixture, validating the theory in a finite-capacity model. Our results show that ACTIVA is a promising approach for estimating interventional distributions from observational data.
Oct 2, 2024

Adaptive teachers for amortized samplers

Amortized inference is the task of training a parametric model, such as a neural network, to approximate a distribution with a given unnormalized density where exact sampling is intractable. When sampling is implemented as a sequential decision-making process, reinforcement learning (RL) methods, such as generative flow networks, can be used to train the sampling policy. Off-policy RL training facilitates the discovery of diverse, high-reward candidates, but existing methods still face challenges in efficient exploration. We propose to use an adaptive training distribution (the \teacher) to guide the training of the primary amortized sampler (the \student). The \teacher, an auxiliary behavior model, is trained to sample high-loss regions of the \student and can generalize across unexplored modes, thereby enhancing mode coverage by providing an efficient training curriculum. We validate the effectiveness of this approach in a synthetic environment designed to present an exploration challenge, two diffusion-based sampling tasks, and four biochemical discovery tasks demonstrating its ability to improve sample efficiency and mode coverage. Source code is available at https://github.com/alstn12088/adaptive-teacher.
Oct 6, 2023

Amortizing intractable inference in large language models

Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many tasks of interest -- including sequence continuation, infilling, and other forms of constrained generation -- involve sampling from intractable posterior distributions. We address this limitation by using amortized Bayesian inference to sample from these intractable posteriors. Such amortization is algorithmically achieved by fine-tuning LLMs via diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms: generative flow networks (GFlowNets). We empirically demonstrate that this distribution-matching paradigm of LLM fine-tuning can serve as an effective alternative to maximum-likelihood training and reward-maximizing policy optimization. As an important application, we interpret chain-of-thought reasoning as a latent variable modeling problem and demonstrate that our approach enables data-efficient adaptation of LLMs to tasks that require multi-step rationalization and tool use.
Oct 3, 2023

Delta-AI: Local objectives for amortized inference in sparse graphical models

We present a new algorithm for amortized inference in sparse probabilistic graphical models (PGMs), which we call ΔΔ-amortized inference (ΔΔ-AI). Our approach is based on the observation that when the sampling of variables in a PGM is seen as a sequence of actions taken by an agent, sparsity of the PGM enables local credit assignment in the agent's policy learning objective. This yields a local constraint that can be turned into a local loss in the style of generative flow networks (GFlowNets) that enables off-policy training but avoids the need to instantiate all the random variables for each parameter update, thus speeding up training considerably. The ΔΔ-AI objective matches the conditional distribution of a variable given its Markov blanket in a tractable learned sampler, which has the structure of a Bayesian network, with the same conditional distribution under the target PGM. As such, the trained sampler recovers marginals and conditional distributions of interest and enables inference of partial subsets of variables. We illustrate ΔΔ-AI's effectiveness for sampling from synthetic PGMs and training latent variable models with sparse factor structure.