Bayesian Quadrature

We introduce Neural Harmonic Measure Operator (NHMO), a neural solver for elliptic PDE problems on variable-shape domains. The harmonic measure of a domain is the boundary probability distribution that, integrated against any boundary data, returns the Dirichlet Laplace solution. It depends only on the geometry, not on the boundary data. NHMO parameterizes the density of this measure as a transformer-based boundary kernel supervised by Walk-on-Spheres exit samples, so one trained kernel handles different boundary values on a shape with no retraining. We extend it to Poisson via a classical decomposition, with an auxiliary network amortizing the source-induced correction and avoiding the singular volume quadrature that breaks direct evaluation. At inference, new boundary values and new sources both yield PDE solutions by re-integration against the fitted kernel and lift, with no retraining. NHMO improves over four prior baselines on the MCB-B 3D variable-shape Poisson benchmark across all five categories, and is competitive with major neural-operator baselines on a controlled 2D testbed.

Estimating integrals of black-box, high-dimensional functions, from expectations and kernel mean embeddings to the softmax kernel in self-attention, is a basic subroutine in machine learning. Rank-1 lattice rules suit this setting: they query the integrand only at a fixed point set and need no gradients. When the $n$ points serve as a design matrix $X\in\mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$ for a feature map, however, computing $Ψ(X)^\top v$ or $Ψ(X)w$ for an elementwise nonlinearity $Ψ$ costs $O(nd)$ time and memory for any standard quasi-Monte Carlo point set. We study subgroup rank-1 lattices, whose Korobov generator $(1,t,\dots,t^{d-1})$ uses a scalar $t$ of fixed multiplicative order $m$. Splitting $\mathbb{F}_n^\times$ into cosets of $\langle t\rangle$ reduces both maps to short cyclic correlations evaluated by FFT, giving exact results for arbitrary $Ψ$ in $O(n\log m)$ time and $O(n)$ memory, without forming $X$. Since fixing $m$ falls outside classical component-by-component theory, we prove convergence directly: via resultants with the cyclotomic polynomial $Φ_m$, the squared worst-case error in the Korobov space decays as $O(n^{-(α-1)/(m-1)})$ for prime $m\ge d+1$, and this threshold is exact. Using the splitting of $n$ in $\mathbb{Q}(ζ_m)$, averaging over the $m-1$ admissible generators improves the constant by a factor $Θ(m-1)$. Empirically, the subgroup lattice beats Gaussian and orthogonal random features and scrambled Sobol' and Halton points in 49 of 54 synthetic kernel-estimation settings and all 45 softmax-attention settings on nine real datasets, and builds a sample set with $d=2048$, $n\approx4.1\times10^7$ in 2.3 ms.

Temporal integration gives continuous-time recurrent networks memory, but in deep stacks it also delays bottom-up signals and attenuates top-down errors. We develop Recursive Quadrature Filters (RQFs), biologically motivated complex-valued temporal filters that are a special case of diagonal state-space models (SSMs), and ask whether this failure mode can be addressed by making each layer's bottom-up input prospective. Starting from an energy model, we derive the RQF dynamics and show that each RQF is a band-pass filter whose learnable parameters control its tuning frequency and bandwidth. We then make each layer's bottom-up input prospective using a parameter-free two-tap update that leaves the recurrent transition and parallel scan unchanged. We extend this correction to general diagonal SSMs and show that it mitigates depth-dependent gradient attenuation when temporal gradients are truncated, i.e., spatial-only backpropagation. We evaluate the intervention in RQFs, S5, and ORGaNICs (a nonlinear gated RNN) trained using full backpropagation through time (BPTT) and spatial-only backpropagation. Under full BPTT, prospective variants match or outperform their non-prospective controls in every model and configuration. A non-residual width-32 six-layer RQF reaches 96.09% accuracy on raw-audio Speech Commands with 31.9k parameters; a width-64 six-layer RQF reaches 83.56% on the 16,384-step Path-X task. These results identify RQFs as a parameter-efficient recurrent substrate and prospective-input coding as an input-side correction for deep continuous-time recurrent networks.

We develop a rigorous theory of discrete residual least-squares approximation for elliptic spectral equations $\mathfrak L_βu=f$ using linearized ReLU$^k$ neural networks on the sphere, where $\mathfrak L_β$ is a positive elliptic spectral multiplier of order $β$. Given a parameter set $Θ_n=\{θ_{j}^*\}_{j=1}^n\subset\mathbb S^d$, we approximate $u$ in the linearized network space $L_n^k(Θ_n)$ by the discrete residual on the collocation points $\{η_i^*\}_{i=1}^m$ \begin{equation*} u_{n,m}\in\arg\min_{v_n\in L_n^k(Θ_n)}\frac1m\sum_{i=1}^m\left(f(η_i^)-\mathfrak L_βv_n(η_i^)\right)^2. \end{equation*} With $k>\frac{d-1}{2}+β$, for antipodally quasi-uniform network parameter sets and any quasi-uniform collocation points with $m\gtrsim n$, we prove that \begin{equation*} |u-u_{n,m}|{\mathcal H^β(\mathbb S^d)}\eqsim|f-\mathfrak L_βu{n,m}|{\mathcal L^2(\mathbb S^d)}\lesssim n^{-\frac{r}{d}} \begin{cases} |f|{\mathcal W^{r,p}(\mathbb S^d)},&\frac{d}{p}<r\leq \frac{d}{2},~p>2,\ |f|{\mathcal H^r(\mathbb S^d)},&r>\frac{d}{2}. \end{cases} \end{equation*} We also establish a high-probability residual estimate, up to a logarithmic factor and an arbitrarily small smoothness loss, for i.i.d.\ uniformly distributed collocation points. The key analytical ingredient is a Bernstein inequality for linearized ReLU$^k$ network spaces. If $\underline h$ denotes the antipodal separation distance of the network parameters, then \begin{equation*} |v_n|{\mathcal H^r(\mathbb S^d)}\lesssim\underline h^{-(r-s)}|v_n|_{\mathcal H^s(\mathbb S^d)},\qquad 0\leq s<r<k+\tfrac12. \end{equation*}

Numerical integration is a cornerstone of various scientific computing applications, such as engineering simulations and model evidence computations in probabilistic machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature uses Gaussian process surrogates that explicitly encode structural assumptions about the integrand to obtain integral estimates with quantified uncertainty. These surrogates are predominantly based on stationary covariance functions, which results in model misspecification for integrands exhibiting nonstationary behavior. We tackle this issue through an adaptively growing, tree-based partition of the integration domain into local stationary models. Our method recombines the local integral estimates through a hierarchy of GP conditioning that reintroduces cross-subdomain correlations, while model selection criteria control the tree growth to avoid unnecessary partitioning. The resulting algorithm is simple, requires no MCMC, and adapts its evaluation budget to local integrand complexity. On benchmark integration problems and a model evidence computation for an epidemiological model, Hierarchical Bayesian Quadrature achieves substantial gains over standard Bayesian Quadrature on nonstationary integrands while matching its performance on stationary ones.

Repeated prediction of acoustic fields from spatially distributed boundary excitation is computationally expensive when each source realization requires a new wave simulation. This work introduces a quadrature-aware complex-linear boundary operator (CLBO) that maps complex normal velocity on a vibrating surface to complex pressure at receiver locations. The model couples learned source and receiver basis functions through an explicit complex surface-quadrature contraction, so the boundary excitation enters linearly by construction. This preserves complex superposition, homogeneity, and zero response to zero excitation, while representing the source through coordinates, normals, and quadrature weights rather than a fixed flattened input vector. Reference data were generated using a verified three-dimensional multiple-relaxation-time (MRT) lattice Boltzmann solver and stored in a solver-agnostic boundary-to-field format. CLBO was compared with a fixed-sensor complex DeepONet under matched case splits and optimization settings, with additional tests of structural consistency, receiver-coordinate interpolation, source discretization, source-family holdout, label efficiency, physics-informed ablations, unseen source mixtures, and computational cost. Across five training seeds, CLBO achieved a mean complex relative field error of 0.184 +/- 0.00771, compared with 0.367 +/- 0.00742 for DeepONet. Its measured source-superposition error was 1.31 x 10^-7, and its mean error on newly simulated mixed-source cases was 0.237, compared with 0.415 for DeepONet. Inference was 1.83 x 10^4 faster than the reference calculation for the reported query size. These results show that enforcing the known complex-linear boundary-to-field structure improves physical consistency and generalization under distributed acoustic excitation.

Quantile regression aims to estimate the conditional quantiles of a response variable from observed data. In a Bayesian setting, Gaussian process quantile regression provides uncertainty quantification but faces significant computational challenges due to the nonconjugacy of the asymmetric Laplace likelihood and the cost of posterior inference. We develop a sparse Gaussian process framework in which the quantile function is represented through a reduced set of inducing variables and posterior inference is performed using a Laplace approximation. A decomposition of the predictive uncertainty into conditional-prior and posterior-induced variance components is then exploited to drive two complementary adaptive mechanisms: inducing-input infilling and data acquisition. These mechanisms are combined within a sequential algorithm that allocates computational effort toward the dominant source of predictive uncertainty and adaptively controls model complexity. Numerical experiments on benchmark problems demonstrate the accuracy of the Laplace approximation, the benefits of variance-based inducing-input placement, and the effectiveness of the proposed sequential enrichment strategy compared with predefined data-acquisition strategies.

We develop the fTNN, a deterministic tensor neural network subspace method for problems involving the fractional Laplacian on bounded domains, taking the fractional Poisson equation and time-dependent fractional advection-diffusion equation as typical representatives. The work employs a geometry-adapted integration split featuring a spatially dependent near-field radius, which decomposes the fractional Laplacian into three contributions: a singular near field, a regular interior far field, and an analytical exterior far field. Then the singular radial integrals are treated by Gauss-Jacobi quadrature, the regular radial integrals by Gauss quadrature, and the angular variables by deterministic angular quadrature, yielding a fully deterministic integration framework of the fractional Laplacian operator. To accurately resolve low-regularity solutions and the associated loss functional, we construct boundary-singularity-aware trial functions enriched with explicit boundary features, and propose two strategies for automatically selecting the leading exponent and evaluating the loss function from the singularity structure induced by the fractional operator, or jointly by the fractional operator and the source term. For time-dependent fractional PDEs, we design a spatiotemporally separable neural network that factorizes the time-space residual into a sum of low-dimensional temporal and spatial integrals, and we integrate this representation with an alternating neural network subspace optimization strategy for efficient training. Numerical experiments show that the proposed framework attains high accuracy on the tested benchmarks and improves substantially over existing fPINN and Monte Carlo baselines, particularly for problems with strong boundary singularities and long-time simulations.

In many engineering applications, a single high-fidelity model produces multiple quantities of interest (QoIs) under the same input parameters, e.g. finite element models of complex physical systems. To alleviate the high computational cost of direct model evaluations, surrogate models are widely used to construct efficient approximations of model responses. Naturally, the accuracy of surrogates strongly depends on the quality of the experimental design (ED). However, a single ED may not provide an adequate representation for all outputs simultaneously, especially when different outputs exhibit varying sensitivities to the input variables. A straightforward solution is to perform separate sampling for each output, but this results in increased sampling complexity and computational cost. From a statistical perspective, such an approach also ignores potential correlations among all outputs and may compromise data consistency. To address this issue, an adaptive sequential sampling method for constructing polynomial chaos expansion surrogate models is generalized for vector valued QoIs. The method sequentially selects new samples from a candidate pool based on their local contribution to the output variance, while balancing distance-based exploration of the input space and exploitation of aggregated variance information across all outputs. Its performance is compared with non-sequential Latin Hypercube Sampling through several numerical examples from engineering problems. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed strategy improves both surrogate accuracy and stability, and provides a more reliable estimation of second-order statistics.

Flexible continuous-time survival modeling is critical for capturing complex time-varying hazard dynamics in high-dimensional data; however, training such models remains challenging due to the intractable integral required for likelihood estimation. We introduce QSurv, a scalable deep learning framework that enables nonparametric continuous-time modeling without relying on time discretization or restrictive distributional assumptions. We propose a training objective based on Gauss-Legendre numerical quadrature, which approximates the cumulative hazard with high-order accuracy while facilitating efficient end-to-end training via standard backpropagation. Furthermore, to effectively capture non-stationary hazard dynamics in complex architectures, we introduce time-conditioned low-rank adaptation, a mechanism that conditions general neural backbones on time by dynamically modulating weights via low-rank updates. We provide theoretical analysis establishing approximation error bounds for cumulative-hazard evaluation. Comprehensive experiments across synthetic benchmarks, large-scale real-world tabular datasets, and high-dimensional medical imaging tasks demonstrate that QSurv achieves competitive predictive performance with advantages in instantaneous hazard function estimation, enabling more interpretable characterization of time-varying risk patterns.

Learning predictive world models from visual observations is a core problem in embodied AI, with applications to model-based reinforcement learning and robotic planning. Existing latent world models typically generate future states with unconstrained neural transition functions, while modern video generation systems often prioritize perceptual plausibility or introduce physical structure through auxiliary losses, external guidance, or separate dynamics modules. As a result, long-horizon rollouts can remain weakly grounded in the physical principles that govern real dynamics, leading to compounding error, energy drift, and physically inconsistent futures. We propose Least Action World Models (LaWM), a latent world-modeling framework that operationalizes the Principle of Least Action in learned visual latent space: future rollouts are governed by a learned Lagrangian action functional rather than produced only by an unconstrained transition predictor. Our main technical realization is a latent variational integrator: LaWM encodes observations into learned generalized coordinates, learns a latent discrete Lagrangian over consecutive latent states, constructs a discrete action functional, and advances prediction by solving the corresponding discrete integration condition. Thus, physical structure is not merely used to score, regularize, or constrain a completed trajectory; it defines the latent transition rule itself. Because the transition is induced by a discrete variational principle, LaWM provides a structure-preserving bias for long-horizon visual prediction. Across physics-clean synthetic dynamics and embodied robot interaction benchmarks, LaWM improves physical invariance, background consistency, motion smoothness, and appearance and geometric prediction metrics over video-generation and world-model baselines.

We study the efficient computation of Shapley values for \emph{product games} -- cooperative games in which the coalition value factorizes as a product of per-player terms. Such games arise in machine learning explainability whenever the value function inherits a multiplicative structure from the underlying model, as in kernel methods with product kernels and tree-based models. Our key result is that the Shapley value of each player in a product game admits an exact one-dimensional integral representation: the weighted sum over exponentially many feature coalitions collapses to the integral of a degree-$(d-1)$ polynomial over $[0,1]$, where $d$ is the total number of features. This yields a Gauss--Legendre quadrature scheme that is \emph{provably exact} whenever the number of nodes satisfies $m_q \geq \lceil d/2 \rceil$, and otherwise provides a \emph{near-exact} approximation with error provably decaying geometrically in $m_q$. In practice, a few hundred nodes can achieve highly precise estimates even with thousands of features. Building on this formulation, we derive a numerically stable implementation via log-space evaluation, together with an efficient parallel implementation based on associative scan primitives that achieves $O(d\,m_q)$ total work and $O(\log d)$ parallel time. Experiments show that \textsc{QuadraSHAP} is the fastest numerically stable method across all tested configurations.

Kernel quadrature can exploit RKHS spectral structure and outperform Monte Carlo on smooth integrands, but optimized quadrature weights are generally signed and may be numerically unstable. We study whether spectral acceleration remains possible when the weights are constrained to be positive, i.e., simplex weights. In the exact-target fixed-pool setting, an evaluated i.i.d. candidate pool of size $N$ is already available and the task is to reweight it so as to approximate the kernel mean embedding. We show that this positive reweighting problem is governed not by the equal-weight empirical average, but by the random convex hull generated by the pool. Our main geometric result shows that the mean of a bounded $d$-dimensional random vector can be approximated by a convex combination of $N$ i.i.d. samples at accuracy $O(d/N)$ with high probability, sharper than equal-weight averaging in the fixed-dimensional regime. We transfer this $d$-dimensional convex-hull approximation to full RKHS worst-case error through an augmented Mercer-truncation argument. The resulting positive-weight KQ bounds consist of a spectral tail term and a finite-sample convex-hull term, yielding Monte-Carlo-beating rates in favorable spectral regimes, including near-$O(1/N)$ rates up to logarithmic factors under exponential spectral decay. We also provide a constructive Frank--Wolfe algorithm that operates directly on the pool atoms, maintains simplex weights, and admits an explicit optimization-error bound.

Evaluating generative AI models is increasingly resource-intensive due to slow inference, expensive raters, and a rapidly growing landscape of models and benchmarks. We propose ProEval, a proactive evaluation framework that leverages transfer learning to efficiently estimate performance and identify failure cases. ProEval employs pre-trained Gaussian Processes (GPs) as surrogates for the performance score function, mapping model inputs to metrics such as the severity of errors or safety violations. By framing performance estimation as Bayesian quadrature (BQ) and failure discovery as superlevel set sampling, we develop uncertainty-aware decision strategies that actively select or synthesize highly informative inputs for testing. Theoretically, we prove that our pre-trained GP-based BQ estimator is unbiased and bounded. Empirically, extensive experiments on reasoning, safety alignment, and classification benchmarks demonstrate that ProEval is significantly more efficient than competitive baselines. It requires 8-65x fewer samples to achieve estimates within 1% of the ground truth, while simultaneously revealing more diverse failure cases under a stricter evaluation budget.

The L infinity star discrepancy is a measure for how uniformly a point set is distributed in a given space. Point sets of low star discrepancy are used as designs of experiments, as initial designs for Bayesian optimization algorithms, for quasi-Monte Carlo integration methods, and many other applications. Recent work has shown that classical constructions such as Sobol', Halton, or Hammersley sequences can be outperformed by large margins when considering point sets of fixed sizes rather than their convergence behavior. These results, highly relevant to the aforementioned applications, raise the question of how much existing constructions can be improved through size-specific optimization. In this work, we study this question for the so-called Kronecker construction. Focusing on the 3-dimensional setting, we show that optimizing the two configurable parameters of its construction yields point sets outperforming the state-of-the-art value for sets of at least 500 points. Using the algorithm configuration technique irace, we then derive parameters that yield new state-of-the-art discrepancy values for whole ranges of set sizes.

Enforcing prescribed global integral constraints in mesh-free neural PDE solvers is challenging in high-dimensional domains. Existing projection methods for spatial integrals are often tied to fixed grids or uniform quadrature, which can conflict with randomly sampled physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) and scale poorly with dimension. High-order differential operators also increase reverse-mode automatic differentiation memory costs. We propose Stochastic Dimension Implicit Functional Projection (SDIFP), a quadrature-level framework for enforcing prescribed first and second spatial moments. SDIFP replaces tensor-product nodal projection by a global affine correction of the neural-network output, with two scalar coefficients determined from a weighted quadrature rule. Under positive target variance and nonzero empirical raw variance, this correction is the nearest-point projection, in the weighted quadrature norm, onto the empirical two-moment constraint set. Thus, the prescribed moments are exact for the selected quadrature rule, while continuum errors are quadrature errors of the corrected field. For decomposable high-dimensional linear operators, SDIFP combines affine moment correction with stochastic operator-subset sampling. With independent residual and derivative sampling and conditionally unbiased coefficient-gradient estimation, the resulting estimator is unbiased for the specified quadrature-based residual objective; the shared-subset fast mode is biased in general. SDIFP avoids tensor-product quadrature for moment enforcement, separates forward quadrature evaluation from the reverse-mode graph, and retains pointwise inference efficiency once the affine coefficients are fixed or precomputed.

Bayesian quadrature is a probabilistic, model-based approach to numerical integration, the estimation of intractable integrals, or expectations. Although Bayesian quadrature was popularised already in the 1980s, no systematic and comprehensive treatment has been published. The purpose of this survey is to fill this gap. We review the mathematical foundations of Bayesian quadrature from different points of view; present a systematic taxonomy for classifying different Bayesian quadrature methods along the three axes of modelling, inference, and sampling; collect general theoretical guarantees; and provide a controlled numerical study that explores and illustrates the effect of different choices along the axes of the taxonomy. We also provide a realistic assessment of practical challenges and limitations to application of Bayesian quadrature methods and include an up-to-date and nearly exhaustive bibliography that covers not only machine learning and statistics literature but all areas of mathematics and engineering in which Bayesian quadrature or equivalent methods have seen use.

Statistical Taylor expansion is a rigorous extension of conventional Taylor expansion that replaces each precise input variable with a random variable of known distribution and sample count, then computes the mean, deviation, and a bounding reliability of every result. By tracking the propagation of input uncertainties through all intermediate steps, it renders the final result path-independent, with precise quantification of the tracking quality. This path-independence sets it fundamentally apart from conventional numerical approaches, which are path-dependent. This study presents an implementation called variance arithmetic and demonstrates its performance across diverse mathematical applications. This study also reveals the potentially substantial impact of numerical errors in library functions, the defect of applying input uncertainties as weights in conventional regression, and the modeling error of the discrete Fourier transformation.

Kernel herding belongs to a family of deterministic quadratures that seek to minimize the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), that is, the worst-case integration error over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). These MMD minimization procedures come with strong experimental support, but comparatively less theoretical footing. In particular, apart from recent progress in distribution compression, little has been proved in favor of an improvement of MMD minimization over classical Monte Carlo quadrature when the RKHS is infinite-dimensional. In this paper, we study a joint probability distribution over quadrature nodes, a tailored Gibbs distribution, whose support intuitively tends to concentrate around MMD minimizers as a temperature parameter is decreased. Our main contribution is to prove that drawing integration nodes from our distribution does outperform i.i.d Monte Carlo. While our bounds on the worst-case integration error feature the same rate as i.i.d. Monte Carlo, we do obtain a tighter concentration inequality as the temperature parameter decreases. This means smaller confidence intervals as the number of quadrature nodes increases. While arguably a first step, our results demonstrate that the mathematical toolbox developed around Gibbs measures can help understand to what extent kernel herding and its variants improve on computationally cheaper methods. There remains the issue of sampling from our Gibbs distribution. In our numerical experiments, we demonstrate that a simple MCMC chain already yields approximate samples that lead to improved confidence intervals around the target integrals, as supported by our theoretical results.

Mixed-effects models are widely used to model data with complex grouping structures and high-cardinality categorical predictor variables. However, for high-dimensional crossed random effects, current standard computations relying on Cholesky decompositions can become prohibitively slow. In this work, we present Krylov subspace-based methods that address existing computational bottlenecks, and we analyze them both theoretically and empirically. In particular, we derive new results on the convergence and accuracy of the preconditioned stochastic Lanczos quadrature and conjugate gradient methods for mixed-effects models, and we develop scalable methods for calculating predictive variances. In experiments with simulated and real-world data, the proposed methods yield speedups of several orders of magnitude and are more computationally robust than Cholesky-based computations, while maintaining essentially the same accuracy.