Clinical Decision Support

Large language models (LLMs) and medical AI tools are routinely used by physicians and patients for medical advice, yet their clinical safety profiles remain poorly characterized. We present NOHARM (Numerous Options Harm Assessment for Risk in Medicine), a 1,100-task benchmark of primary care-to-specialist consultation cases to measure the frequency and severity of potentially harmful errors from LLM-generated medical consultation recommendations. NOHARM covers 10 specialties, with 12,747 expert annotations for 4,249 clinical management options. Across 20 notable LLMs and 4 widely used retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) clinical AI tools, direct application of recommendations carried potential for severe harm in up to 24.6% of cases, with errors of omission accounting for more than 80% of severe errors. Harm potential was not uniform across systems, with clinical AI tools outperforming generalist LLMs, and multi-agent AI teaming further improving performance in generalist models. In a randomized study of 101 U.S.-licensed generalist physicians, AI assistance improved physician performance compared to conventional resources. However, AI-assisted physicians frequently omitted valuable AI-generated recommendations and still scored lower than many AI systems alone. Had those recommendations been incorporated, combined human-AI responses would have outperformed both the human and AI system as used, suggesting complementary strengths and unrealized potential in human-AI teaming. Collectively, these results show that despite strong performance on medical knowledge benchmarks, widely used AI tools can produce medical consultation advice with the potential for severe harm, and highlight the need for explicit measurement of clinical safety. The benchmark and leaderboard are publicly available to support ongoing evaluation and improvement of AI systems used for clinical care.

Clinical language models often assign high confidence to incorrect predictions, particularly in high-severity and out-of-distribution cases. We present MedBayes-Lite, a retraining-free uncertainty governance layer for transformer-based clinical predictors. It combines Monte Carlo dropout, predictive calibration, and confidence-guided abstention to defer low-confidence predictions for human review, adding no trainable parameters. Evaluated on MedMCQA and MedQA-USMLE, MedBayes-Lite reduces expected calibration error by 0.23 to 0.33 and drives harmful overconfident errors (confident, incorrect, high-severity predictions) toward zero. Under domain shift from MedMCQA to MedQA-USMLE, it reduces confident high-severity errors from about 21% to near zero while roughly halving calibration drift. We also introduce the Clinical Uncertainty Score (CUS), which strongly correlates with harmful overconfidence (r approximately 0.88). Although the framework does not improve risk-coverage ranking, and temperature scaling or deep ensembles may provide advantages in calibration cost or risk ranking, MedBayes-Lite offers a practical calibration-and-abstention layer that reduces confident high-severity errors in clinical question-answering benchmarks.

There is growing interest in using machine learning (ML) to support clinical diagnosis, but most approaches rely on static, fully observed datasets and fail to reflect the sequential, resource-aware reasoning clinicians use in practice. Diagnosis remains complex and error prone, especially in high-pressure or resource-limited settings, underscoring the need for frameworks that help clinicians make timely and cost-effective decisions. We propose ACTMED (Adaptive Clinical Test selection via Model-based Experimental Design), a diagnostic framework that integrates Bayesian Experimental Design (BED) with large language models (LLMs) to better emulate real-world diagnostic reasoning. At each step, ACTMED selects the test expected to yield the greatest reduction in diagnostic uncertainty for a given patient. LLMs act as flexible simulators, generating plausible patient state distributions and supporting belief updates without requiring structured, task-specific training data. Clinicians can remain in the loop; reviewing test suggestions, interpreting intermediate outputs, and applying clinical judgment throughout. We evaluate ACTMED on real-world datasets and show it can optimize test selection to improve diagnostic accuracy, interpretability, and resource use. This represents a step toward transparent, adaptive, and clinician-aligned diagnostic systems that generalize across settings with reduced reliance on domain-specific data.

In response to the success of proprietary Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing interest in developing open, non-proprietary LLMs and AI foundation models (AIFMs) for transparent use in academic, scientific, and non-commercial applications. Open models have substantial potential to improve healthcare applications. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive survey and a taxonomy of state-of-the-art open LLMs and AIFMs for clinical tasks. In addition, we empirically evaluate open-weight LLMs on a personalized-prescription task and compare them with a proprietary model with and without Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). Across 100 synthetic patient profiles, the open-weight models matched or exceeded the proprietary baseline on overall suitability accuracy without retrieval augmentation (0.810--0.850 versus 0.780), although the confidence intervals overlap; with retrieval augmentation, every model improved, and the ranking closed to within 0.04. Gains from RAG were field-dependent rather than uniform. To highlight the clinical relevance of LLM-driven personalized prescriptions, we also conduct a subjective evaluation in which two raters, blinded to model and condition, scored responses independently of each other. Their ratings did not follow the accuracy gains: retrieval raised overall suitability accuracy for every model while lowering the two-rater means for two of the four on all five dimensions. Finally, we outline the ethical implications and potential risks associated with the misuse of advanced LLMs and AIFMs, highlighting the importance of responsible and transparent deployment in healthcare contexts. \textit{Data and code used in the paper will be released upon publication.