Counterfactual Data Augmentation

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5 papers in the last four weeks, with none the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 25

Oct 8, 2026cs.CV

Healthy Counterfactual Generation via Diffusion Inpainting for Mammography Classification

False negatives remain a critical limitation of computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems for breast cancer screening due to delayed detection and treatment. To address this issue, we propose a counterfactual data augmentation strategy that generates healthy mammograms by "erasing" lesions from anomalous images, thereby enriching the training distribution. We train a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model on BI-RADS 1 (healthy) mammograms and use a RePaint-based sampling strategy to inpaint realistic normal tissue within annotated lesion bounding boxes. The resulting healthy counterfactuals replace annotated lesion regions with realistic healthy tissue while preserving patient-specific anatomical structure, as supported by similarity metrics between real and generated images. Image realism was further assessed by radiologists and found to be consistent with the original dataset quality. We evaluate counterfactual augmentation across four representative classifier architectures: a convolutional neural network (ConvNeXt), a vision transformer (ViT), a vision-language model pre-trained on mammogram-report pairs (Mammo-CLIP) and a multi-scale attention-based multiple-instance learning framework (FPN-MIL). Experiments conducted on the VinDr-Mammo dataset show improvements in sensitivity across all architectures, particularly at 80% fixed specificity, contributing towards more reliable CAD systems for breast cancer. Code is available at: https://github.com/ines03garcia/diffusion-based-counterfactual-generation.

Inês Cruchinho Garcia, Mariana Mourão, Francisco Maria Calisto +2

Institute for Systems and Robotics, Instituto Superior Técnico, Lisbon, Portugal

Counterfactual Data Augmentation Mammography Medical Image Classification Medical Image Synthesis

Sep 30, 2026cs.RO

Same Scene, Different Task: Skill Alignment for Compositional Generalization in VLAs

Vision-language-action (VLA) models often struggle to generalize to skill combinations absent from their fine-tuning demonstrations, even when every constituent skill has been demonstrated. We focus on a vision shortcut as one failure mode: during fine-tuning, visual observations can serve as a proxy for the instruction, so a policy may execute a demonstrated combination associated with similar observations rather than the instructed combination. This motivates training with counterfactual pairs formed by holding a demonstration observation fixed while changing the instruction to specify an undemonstrated combination. These pairs, however, lack corresponding demonstrated action targets. Crucially, the currently required skill has already been demonstrated, but actions from those executions cannot serve as direct targets because the same skill can require different actions across observations. We propose CRAFT, which transfers supervision from demonstrated executions of the required skill to counterfactual pairs using skill representations that can be reused across executions of the same skill. Across three VLA models and two simulation benchmarks, CRAFT improves success on undemonstrated combinations while maintaining high success on demonstrated ones; it also improves compositional generalization on a real robot. Project website: https://taegeunyang.github.io/craft/

Taegeun Yang, Youngju Na, Yoonki Cho +1

Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)

Vision-Language-Action Models Counterfactual Data Augmentation VLMs for Robotics Instruction Generalization in VLA Models

Sep 30, 2026cs.RO

When Instructions Retrieve Trajectories: Diagnosing and Mitigating Generalization Failures in VLA Models

Vision-language-action (VLA) models can exceed 90% success on in-distribution tasks and withstand nuisance changes that preserve the required action, yet fail under counterfactual changes that demand a different action. Aggregate robustness scores can therefore conceal a more specific failure, in which a policy responds to both language and vision yet does not combine them to select the action the task requires. We call this failure instruction-action binding. Instructions cue familiar trajectory families, and visual feedback adjusts their execution. Behavioral analyses of fine-tuned

π_{0.5}

and GR00T-N1.7 policies reveal that failed rollouts often retain the source behavior or switch to another demonstrated task. These switches show that language is not simply ignored. Readouts and interventions connect these choices to task-conditioned internal states. Our analysis of the imitation objective shows how narrow conditional action support can leave grounded and instruction-keyed solutions indistinguishable on the demonstrations. This motivates Equivariant Counterfactual Training (ECT), which acts at two levels. ECT data supply valid demonstrations in which the same instruction requires different actions in distinguishable scenes, while the ECT loss trains each demonstration with its counterpart in the same update. In a controlled LIBERO-PRO comparison, full ECT raises

π_{0.5}

's mean position-swap success from 36% to 59%. On CALVIN, where counterparts already occur in the original data, the ECT loss improves five-task completion without new demonstrations. On a real UR5e under a fixed demonstration budget, full ECT raises unseen-position success from 8% to 88%.

Hung-Jen Chen, Yu-Hsun Hou, Yan-Hong Chen +4

National Tsing Hua University · National Taiwan University

Robotic Manipulation Vision-Language-Action Models Counterfactual Data Augmentation Instruction Generalization in VLA Models Robustness of VLA Models

Sep 29, 2026cs.AI

Multi-Channel Mitigation of Source-Trust Shortcuts in Fact-Checking RL Agents

Retrieval-augmented fact-checkers often receive a reliability label, such as HIGH or LOW trust, for each evidence source. These labels should adjust the model's confidence and its decision to search for more evidence, while the verdict should follow the evidence content. We introduce TrustSwap, a counterfactual test that swaps, lowers, or removes source labels while keeping every evidence text fixed, and measures its three output channels (the verdict, the confidence, and the search decision) separately. Across untrained and RL-trained models at two scales, three datasets, and two prompts, confidence and search respond to the labels as intended in 49 of 50 comparisons, yet a label change alone alters 4-23% of confident verdicts for Qwen3 models and up to 50% for an existing RL-trained fact-checker. Standard GRPO fine-tuning amplifies this shortcut at 8B in all six settings. To reduce it, we propose trust-swap augmentation (TSA), which trains GRPO on each claim with both its original and its label-swapped evidence under the same gold verdict. At 4B, TSA lowers the verdict flip rate by 7-35% (relative) in four of six settings, keeps accuracy and the intended confidence and search responses, outperforms reward-based alternatives in the main setting, and carries over to an unseen label-removal perturbation. An added consistency reward helps on the trained-on swap but not on unseen perturbations. At 8B, TSA's effect is not detectable, which makes scale the main open question.

Jianchang Su, Yiwei Yang, Wei Zhang

University of Connecticut · University of California, Santa Cruz

Automated Fact-Checking LLM Reliability Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Sep 27, 2026cs.LG

Pulseflow: PPG Counterfactual Generation Via Latent Transport

Photoplethysmography (PPG) has become an important modality for continuous cardiovascular monitoring, including atrial fibrillation (AF) detection. However, labeled AF recordings remain limited in many clinical settings, making model adaptation difficult when only limited target data are available. Generative modeling offers a natural way to alleviate this scarcity by synthesizing additional AF signals. Existing approaches, however, mainly generate samples that match the target condition without explicitly modeling how an observed source recording should be transformed, making it difficult to leverage abundant source recordings from a specific population or cohort for targeted augmentation. We introduce PulseFlow, a source-conditioned counterfactual generation framework that combines conditional representation learning with invertible latent transport to edit cardiac rhythm while retaining information from the source. Experiments across two clinical cohorts demonstrate effective rhythm transformation, measurable source correspondence, and improved AF classification under limited labels.

Hung Manh Pham, Dong Ma, Bin Zhu +1

University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

Counterfactual Data Augmentation Photoplethysmography Conditional Generative Modeling

Sep 17, 2026cs.AI

MAGMA-GEN: Validated Recovery Supervision from Ambiguous Failures via Counterfactual Re-Execution

Hierarchical robotic systems executing long-horizon manipulation tasks must make high-level semantic decisions that orchestrate stochastic low-level skills. In this setting, failed rollouts are ambiguous: a poor downstream state may reflect an invalid high-level decision, partial observation, or a valid decision whose physical execution failed. Traditional supervised learning lacks data for such recovery states, while reinforcement learning struggles with sparse rewards and non-local credit assignment. We propose MAGMA-GEN, an on-policy data-generation pipeline that converts ambiguous failed rollouts into validated recovery supervision. MAGMA-GEN first uses a privileged coach to hypothesize an early decision-level error and propose localized correction or recovery actions. Because this diagnosis is fallible, candidates are retained only if re-execution from the same state under matched conditions improves downstream progress. This produces supervised examples from the agent's own failure distribution without per-step human demonstrations. Evaluated on interactive long-horizon manipulation tasks, MAGMA-GEN improves task success and recovery capabilities, against distillation and trajectory-repair baselines under evolving task constraints in both simulation and real-robot execution.

Loan Bernat, Matthieu Grard, Ariane Herbulot +1

LAAS-GEPETTO · Sil´eane, LAAS-CNRS · LAAS-RAP +2

Long-Horizon Robotic Manipulation Robot Failure Recovery Synthetic Data Generation for Robotics Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Aug 4, 2026cs.LG

DiagLoop: A Counterfactual Data Flywheel with Stage-Localized Reinforcement for Diagnostic LLMs

Causal diagnostic models must explain how conclusions follow from evidence because diagnoses guide repairs and treatments. Yet serious cases are scarce, records rarely contain reasoning paths, and data transfer poorly across configurations, complicating local deployment. We present DiagLoop, a counterfactual data flywheel that converts codified physical relations or clinical guidelines, authored once per mechanism family, into training supervision beyond recorded cases. A training-only teacher proposes counterfactual worlds by varying causes, contexts, and observations, while an independent hybrid checker admits only valid worlds. The student reasons through symptom abstraction, causal-chain construction, and root-cause attribution. Stage-specific criteria identify its earliest failure. For nonterminal failures, a bounded repair probes downstream competence, and the resulting weakness profile guides subsequent data generation. Stage-localized reinforcement learning updates only the model-generated continuation, while replay and preservation reduce forgetting. The same criteria govern admission, attribution, reward, and regeneration through checks separate from the proposer. Using only synthesized scenarios and no case-level expert reasoning annotations, the resulting 8B model improves strict path correctness over the strongest conventional baseline. Gains are 11.6 points across eight industrial systems and 5.5 points across ten disease categories. Gains over a deranged-routing control are 3.9 and 2.3 points, respectively. The model also exceeds the evaluated proprietary references in both domains, even when they receive few-shot examples or the specification in context.

Jian Zhang, Bingyi Wang, Yizhi Liu

Zhejiang University

RL for Language Model Reasoning Causal Reasoning in Language Models Clinical Reasoning Counterfactual Data Augmentation Fault Diagnosis

Jul 30, 2026cs.RO

Static In, Dynamic Out: Counterfactual Action Augmentation for Moving Object Manipulation

Visuomotor policies have advanced on manipulation tasks where the target object stays static during execution, but real deployments break this assumption: parts drift on conveyors and fruits sway in the wind. We introduce Static In, Dynamic Out (SIDO), a counterfactual action augmentation that enables a policy trained only on static object demonstrations to adapt to unseen object motion at test time. Our key idea is to factorize moving object manipulation into two sub-problems: predicting where the object will be, and reaching that predicted pose. SIDO displaces the object to a counterfactual future position and morphs the demonstrated action chunk to preserve the hand-object relative pose, yielding a goal-conditioned policy. At deployment an object pose predictor supplies the future position. Across three simulated tasks (Mug, Square, Stack) under five object motion patterns and two real-world tasks (Gantry, Peachtree), SIDO improves moving object success over the baselines while preserving static object performance. Project website: https://sido-staticindynamicout.github.io/.

Woo Chul Shin, Zhenyang Chen, Alfred Cueva +5

Georgia Institute of Technology

Robot Policy Adaptation Visuomotor Policy Learning Dynamic Robotic Manipulation Robot Imitation Learning Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

SPARC Segmentation to Prediction via Affine Regression and Counterfactuals

Transaction propensity prediction in B2B e commerce presents unique challenges distinct from B2C contexts, primarily due to the heterogeneous procurement behaviors of organizational entities, which violate SMOTE's implicit assumption of within class feature homogeneity. Specifically, B2B buyers exhibit multi modal procurement cycles that render linear interpolation between minority class samples structurally invalid, producing synthetic data that does not represent real purchasing behavior. This paper introduces a production deployed propensity modeling framework designed to address these complexities through two primary contributions. First, we replace conventional SMOTE based augmentation with a synthetic data generation approach leveraging Diverse Counterfactual Explanations (DiCE). This method produces minority class samples with superior distributional fidelity compared to SMOTE, as validated through quantitative proximity analysis and UMAP cluster visualization. Second, we adapt the PyPARC piecewise affine classification framework to generate calibrated propensity probabilities, facilitating the interpretable segmentation of customers into actionable risk tiers. Evaluated on two years of longitudinal data from a large scale B2B e commerce platform with a 1 to 9 class imbalance ratio, the proposed architecture achieves 93.1% precision at a decision threshold of 0.8, a 9.2 percentage point improvement over SMOTE based baselines at the same threshold (83.9%), and a 26.1 point improvement over SMOTE at threshold 0.7 (66.04%), demonstrating consistent superiority across operating points. These results demonstrate the framework's efficacy in enabling high precision marketing campaigns with significant improvements in customer activation and return on investment.

Shivani, Subhayan Roy

Class-Imbalanced Learning Counterfactual Data Augmentation E-Commerce Tabular Prediction

Jul 23, 2026cs.LG

Counterfactual Explainability Framework With CycleGAN And Counterfactual-Classifier Alignnment Score for Retinal Disease Classification

Automated detection of vision impairing retina-based ocular conditions from fundus images is important for early screening, timely referral and reducing dependency on specialist-only assessment, for which neural network-based deep learning (DL) models have been widely utilized. However, explainability of the DL frameworks remains a major bottleneck for clinical adoption, particularly when model decisions are not linked to retinal regions that are clinically meaningful. To address this issue, this study presents CounterFundus, a novel CycleGAN-driven counterfactual explainability framework, integrating EfficientNet-B5-based retinal disease detection with visually interpretable disease-to-normal fundus image translation. For each pathological image, the counterfactual yielded by the CycleGAN generator represents an estimated healthy counterpart and the resultant difference map is utilized to localize disease-associated retinal changes. Unlike conventional post-hoc saliency methods, CounterFundus provides counterfactual explanations through visually plausible disease-to-normal retinal translation. Thereafter, to quantify the spatial agreement between counterfactual difference maps and classifier saliency, the Counterfactual-Classifier Alignment Score (CCAS) is introduced, embedding Spearman correlation, binary IoU and pointing accuracy into a single assessment protocol. To this end, EigenCAM-aligned evaluation demonstrates that the generated counterfactual explanations remain spatially consistent with classifier-relevant retinal evidence across all CCAS dimensions. Along with that, ablation studies further confirm that CCAS-filtered counterfactual augmentation improves the downstream classification performance in fundus images, establishing CounterFundus as a clinically-grounded, explainable artificially intelligence (XAI) framework for retinal disease detection.

Kritanu Chattopadhyay, Sayanjit Singha Roy, Soumya Chatterjee

Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, 713209, India · Department of Electrical Engineering, IIT Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh, 208016, India · Department of Electrical Engineering, National Institute of Technology Durgapur, West Bengal, 713209, India

Counterfactual Explanations Medical Image Classification Fundus Imaging Explainable Medical Image Analysis Counterfactual Data Augmentation Explainability Evaluation

Jul 23, 2026cs.IR

Improving Rare Medication Recommendation with Counterfactual Data Augmentation and Large Language Models

AI-based medication recommendation systems have attracted substantial attention due to their potential to enhance patient safety and therapeutic outcomes. Despite the clinical importance of accurately recommending rarely prescribed medications (rare-meds), we observe that most existing methods show significantly lower predictive performance for rare-meds. We attribute this issue to two intrinsic limitations: (a) the inherent scarcity of data for rare-meds and (b) limited consideration of co-recommended medications. To address these limitations, we propose GenRxR, a novel framework based on large language models (LLMs). GenRxR leverages the medical knowledge and clinical reasoning capability of LLMs to generate counterfactual medical data, mitigating the data scarcity issue for rare-meds. It also integrates an LLM into the medication recommendation process to model relationships among co-recommended medications. To further enhance the clinical reasoning, we introduce an instruction tuning step that aligns the LLM's capability with the recommendation task, enabling better handling of clinical context, including rare-meds cases. In our experiments, we show that GenRxR outperforms 14 (including 5 LLM-based) baselines in most cases. Specifically, it achieves up to 30.9% higher predictive performance for rare-meds than the strongest baseline.

Shinhwan Kang, Soo Yong Lee, Jaewon Kim +2

KAIST Seoul, South Korea · KAIST Daejeon, South Korea · Korea University Seoul, South Korea

Clinical Decision Support Large Language Model-Based Recommendation Counterfactual Data Augmentation Medical LLMs

Jul 15, 2026cs.CL

Constraint-Aware Counterfactual Editing for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) requires models to identify sentiment toward specific aspects rather than relying on the global polarity of a sentence. This makes counterfactual evaluation especially challenging: a valid counterfactual should flip the sentiment of one target aspect while preserving the sentiment of all non-target aspects, semantic meaning, fluency, and factual consistency. Existing counterfactual generation methods often focus on sentence-level label flipping and may produce edits that are fluent but aspect-invalid, semantically drifting, or contradictory. To address this limitation, we propose CAVE-ABSA, a Constraint-Aware Validated Editing framework for generating and validating aspect-level counterfactuals. CAVE-ABSA localizes the opinion span associated with the target aspect, performs controlled counterfactual rewriting, refines candidates through a repair module, and filters them using aspect-level verification, semantic similarity, AMR-guided structural preservation, edit minimality, fluency, and contradiction detection. The framework is designed to construct validated counterfactual ABSA datasets for robustness evaluation and data augmentation. By explicitly separating generation from validation, CAVE-ABSA provides a principled approach for producing meaningful aspect-local counterfactuals and for testing whether ABSA models truly rely on aspect-grounded sentiment reasoning.

S M Rafiuddin, Vamsi Krishna Pavuluri, Atriya Sen

Department of Computer Science, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA

Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations Counterfactual Data Augmentation Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis

Jul 7, 2026cs.CV

Breaking Spurious Correlations via Generative Randomization and Cross-Variant Self-Supervised Learning

Deep neural networks trained with Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) often fail under distribution shifts because they exploit spurious correlations between object labels and background context. Recent generative approaches address this issue by creating counterfactual images with altered contexts, but typically use these samples as standard data augmentation, leaving the model free to retain background-sensitive representations. We propose a two-stage framework that uses generative intervention to explicitly learn background-invariant visual representations. First, we isolate the foreground object using zero-shot segmentation and generate context-shifted variants with a structure-preserving diffusion model, preserving object identity while varying the surrounding environment. We then introduce Cross-Variant Self-Supervised Learning, where variants of the same object under different backgrounds form positive pairs in a contrastive objective. This encourages the encoder to align object-centric representations while suppressing background-specific cues. Then, we fine-tune the pretrained encoder using an ERM warm-up followed by GroupDRO with layer-wise learning rates. Experiments on distribution-shift benchmarks demonstrate best worst-group performance, achieving 92.5% on Waterbirds, 81.7% on MetaShift, and 87.4% on NICO++. Code: https://github.com/surajyadav-research/GRSSL

Suraj Yadav, Anjaneya Sharma, Siddharth Yadav

Indraprastha Institute of Information Technology Delhi

Contrastive Learning OOD Generalization Spurious Correlation Robustness Counterfactual Data Augmentation Self-Supervised Visual Representation Learning

Jul 1, 2026cs.CV

CIPHER: Causal Intervention Pathways for Healthcare Equity and Robustness

Deep learning models for medical diagnosis frequently exhibit substantial performance disparities across sensitive subgroups (e.g., race, sex), even when average accuracy is high. While generative data augmentation offers a route to mitigate this, existing strategies are suboptimal; they typically address only one or two dependency channels between sensitive attributes and image features. We formalize the medical image formation process via a structural causal model, revealing that sensitive attributes actually influence image content through four distinct pathways-a structural complexity neglected by prior works. Based on this insight, we introduce CIPHER (Causal Intervention Pathways for Healthcare Equity and Robustness), a framework designed to systematically intervene on all four causal paths. To achieve this, CIPHER utilizes a diffusion backbone equipped with classifier-free guidance and null-text inversion. This technical design enables the faithful reconstruction of patient-specific anatomy while allowing for the precise, editable synthesis of counterfactuals required to break sensitive dependency chains. We tested CIPHER using chest X-ray and dermoscopy benchmarks across both standard and shifted data distributions. By employing a multi-pathway intervention strategy, our model reduced worst-group disparities by an average of 35.8% compared to disease-conditioned synthesis baselines, while also improving total diagnostic accuracy

Xinyu Jia, Weidong Guo, Wangyuan Zhao +3

College of Biomedical Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

Algorithmic Fairness Medical Image Synthesis Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Jun 26, 2026cs.LG

Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation for Regression

Data-driven modeling in real-world regression tasks often suffers from limited training samples, high collection costs, and noisy observations. Inspired by the impact of data augmentation in vision and language, we propose a novel Counterfactual Residual Data Augmentation (CRDA) technique for tabular regression. Our key insight is that once a regressor has modeled the systematic component of the data, the remaining noise can be viewed as an invariant residual that remains stable under small perturbations of carefully selected features. We exploit this residual invariance to generate new, yet realistic, training samples, effectively expanding the dataset without requiring additional real data. Our method is model-agnostic and readily applicable to various types of regressors. In experiments across datasets from a variety of benchmark repositories, on average, CRDA reduces an MLP Regressor's MSE by 22.9% and an XGBoost Regressor's MSE by 6.4%. When compared to existing state-of-the-art data generators and augmentation techniques, CRDA consistently outperforms in MSE reduction. By adding principled counterfactual variations to the training data, our method offers a simple and efficient remedy for noise-prone, small-sample regression settings.

Hossein Mohebbi, Oliver Schulte, Ke Li +1

University of Waterloo · Vector Institute · Simon Fraser University.

Synthetic Tabular Data Generation Counterfactual Data Augmentation Tabular Regression

Jun 13, 2026cs.CL

CoCoGEC: Counterfactual Generation for Robust Grammatical Error Correction

Grammatical error correction (GEC) systems are usually trained and evaluated on GEC benchmarks, but their performance often drops sharply once the surrounding context is slightly perturbed or extended. This indicates that the existing GEC models usually fail to understand the error patterns in the varying contexts. In this paper, we thoroughly investigate the counterfactuals for GEC tasks, where the subtle changes to the contexts could lead to the label flipping issue. We propose CoCoGEC, a counterfactual generation framework that creates copies of training instances with error-irrelevant contexts altered. Our framework systematically generates counterfactuals by (1) generating intra- and inter-sentence counterfactuals that maintain the error patterns as well as syntax of the original instances by altering the word-level and sentence-level contexts; (2) revising the generated counterfactuals by selecting the instances with flipped labels and high GEC Mutual Information (MI) coefficient. Extensive experiments show that our method substantially improves the stability of GEC models, outperforming a set of data augmentation baselines. Particularly, it could achieve absolute F0.5 gains of +9.9, +11.3, and +20.8 points on the perturbed BEA-19*,CoNLL-14*, and TEM-8* data set.Our code is released at https://github.com/Quinnok/CoCoGEC

Qianyu Wang, Xiaoman Wang, Yuanyuan Liang +2

East China Normal University

Grammatical Error Correction Counterfactual Data Augmentation

Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

LLM Explainability with Counterfactual Chains and Causal Graphs

Causal graphs provide a high-level language for making mechanisms transparent. Recent work uses Large Language Models (LLMs) to recover causal graphs of external-world processes. Instead, in this paper, we use causal graphs to model LLM inference itself, providing stakeholders with a transparent view of how the model perceives and organizes high-level concepts to produce a prediction. We propose a four-phase method for constructing such graphs. Given a target LLM and a set of textual examples, our method discovers class-discriminative, human-interpretable concepts and maps each input to LLM-perceived concept states. We then introduce an MCMC-inspired counterfactual augmentation procedure that expands the sparse observational data through chains of counterfactuals. This enables stable causal discovery with

σ

-CG, yielding informative, interpretable graphs. We apply our method to three LLMs across disease diagnosis, sentiment analysis, and LLM-as-a-judge classification tasks. We evaluate the learned graphs for predictive fidelity and structural stability, and the MCMC-inspired augmentation for convergence and downstream utility. Our results show that the discovered causal graphs capture meaningful dependencies consistent with LLMs' reasoning. Together, this paper provides a foundation for concept-level explainability of LLMs.

Nirit Nussbaum-Hoffer, Nitay Calderon, Liat Ein-Dor +1

Faculty of Data and Decision Sciences, Technion · IBM Research

LLM Reasoning with Graphs LLM Interpretability Causal Structure Learning Concept-Based Explanations Causal Reasoning in Language Models Counterfactual Data Augmentation+1

May 27, 2026cs.CL

Stance Detection in Prediction Markets: Addressing Imbalanced Trader Commentary via Counterfactual Augmentation and Market Context

Prediction markets such as Polymarket aggregate crowd beliefs into real-time probability estimates, and the comments traders post beneath each market contain rich directional stance signals that prices alone cannot capture. This work introduces the first stance detection study applied to prediction market commentary, a domain characterized by extreme brevity, trader- specific vernacular, and severe class imbalance (only 8.7% of comments oppose the market outcome). RoBERTa-base is fine-tuned across a 4 x 3 ablation: four input configurations ({2- class, 3-class} x {with/without market context}) and three augmentation conditions (baseline, 50% synthetic, 100% synthetic). Synthetic minority-class samples are generated via LLM-driven Pro -> Anti counterfactual flips using the Anthropic API. Results show that (1) market context is the single most impactful factor, raising 3-class Anti recall from 0.10 to 0.45; (2) counterfactual augmentation is conditionally effective, improving Anti F1 in weak configurations (0.10 -> 0.24) while degrading strong ones (2-class-ctx macro F1: 0.68 -> 0.50 at full dose); and (3) 50% augmentation is the optimal dose, with 100% consistently hurting performance. Attention-based interpretability analysis provides mechanistic support for all three findings.

Thomas Mbrice

Department of Computer Science Stony Brook University

Class-Imbalanced Learning Stance Detection Counterfactual Data Augmentation Prediction Markets

May 25, 2026cs.CL

TypedCSIP: Typed Counterfactual Pretraining for Chinese Legislative Conflict Classification

TypedCSIP is a typed counterfactual pretraining method for the conflict-classification task of the LCR-CN benchmark (Zhao et al., 2026): given a (superior, subordinate) provision pair, predict whether the pair conflicts and which of four legal-doctrine types (Responsibility, Condition, Sanction, Definition) describes the inconsistency. We exploit LCR-CN's expert-written minimal revisions as training-time counterfactual supervision; at test time the classifier reads only the original pair. Stage 1 pretrains a shared encoder with a typed Counterfactual Selective Intervention Pretraining objective on (superior, subordinate, expert-revised) triplets, treating the expert revision as a counterfactual that the typed factor head must classify as carrying no conflict evidence. Stage 2 transfers the encoder to a five-way classification head. The confirmatory test was registered on the Open Science Framework before observing v6 measurements: 18 seeds, locked rule requiring mean per-seed difference at least 0.8 pp with both seed-bootstrap and Student-t 95% lower bounds above zero. On the 696-record test split, the v2 variant improves macro-F1 over the strongest single-model baseline by +0.916 pp on chinese-roberta-wwm-ext and +1.288 pp on the SAILER cross-backbone replication; both cells pass the rule. A cold-start stratified result on the 244 Unseen-gB records keeps the gain positive on both backbones. A cross-task diagnostic shows the Stage-2 encoder is classification-specialized and does not transfer to LCR-CN's superior-law retrieval task, so we scope the contribution to conflict classification. We release code, 72 pre-registered prediction files, matched-seed and MLM-control auxiliaries, and the OSF pre-registration record.

Yao Liu

Chengdu University of Technology, Leshan, China

Legal NLP Classification Counterfactual Data Augmentation

May 25, 2026cs.LG

When Rule Violations Are Rare: Chimera Training for Logical Anomaly Detection

Many practical anomalies are not merely rare inputs, but violations of semantic constraints: objects co-occur in structured ways, actions imply preconditions, and events satisfy temporal or relational regularities. We study anomaly detection in this setting, where constraints are given as logical rules over learned visual concepts, but real rule violations are rare or absent during training. We propose a neural rule evaluator that compiles each constraint into a directed acyclic graph and learns feature-aware subtree MLP gates for its internal logical operators. Each gate maps child features and edge-level negations to a parent representation and a rule-satisfaction probability, with intermediate supervision obtained from exact Boolean propagation over ground-truth concept labels. The key difficulty is that same-image training data often provide insufficient coverage of informative truth configurations and also allow shortcut solutions. To address this, we introduce chimera training: an operand-level counterfactual construction at the feature level. Instead of mixing input images, we concatenate subtree features from different samples; each operand keeps the hard truth label of the sample it came from, and the chimera target is obtained by applying the node's logical operator to those inherited labels. This supplies supervised logical counterexamples without requiring real anomalous images. Across CLEVRER, OpenImages, and VidOR, the resulting evaluator improves rule-level anomaly AUROC over independent-events and same-image semantic-training baselines, especially for compositional and relational rules. The method yields both scalar anomaly scores and rule-level attributions.

Alejandro Ascarate, Leo Lebrat, Rodrigo Santa Cruz +2

School of Electrical Engineering and Robotics, Faculty of Engineering, −Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Counterfactual Data Augmentation Anomaly Detection

May 11, 2026cs.CL

Learning More from Less: Exploiting Counterfactuals for Data-Efficient Chart Understanding

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable progress in chart understanding, largely driven by supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on increasingly large synthetic datasets. However, scaling SFT data alone is inefficient and overlooks a key property of charts: charts are programmatically generated visual artifacts, where small, code-controlled visual changes can induce drastic shifts in semantics and correct answers. Learning this counterfactual sensitivity requires VLMs to discriminate fine-grained visual differences, yet standard SFT treats training instances independently and provides limited supervision to enforce this behavior. To address this, we introduce ChartCF, a data-efficient training framework designed to enhance counterfactual sensitivity. ChartCF consists of: (1) a counterfactual data synthesis pipeline via code modification, (2) a chart similarity-based data selection strategy that filters overly difficult samples for improved training efficiency, and (3) multimodal preference optimization across both textual and visual modalities. Experiments on five benchmarks show that ChartCF achieves superior or comparable performance to strong chart-specific VLMs while using significantly less training data.

Jianzhu Bao, Haozhen Zhang, Kuicai Dong +5

1Nanyang Technological University · 2Aumovio Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Data Visualization VLM Adaptation Counterfactual Data Augmentation Chart Understanding Counterfactual Learning

May 4, 2026cs.AI

Verifiable Counterfactual Supervision for Process Reward Models

Process reward models (PRMs) require supervision that identifies not only whether a reasoning trajectory is correct, but also where the reasoning process first becomes unsupported by its prefix. We frame this requirement as verifiable counterfactual process supervision with paired correct and erroneous trajectories in which the first invalid transition is known, the error mechanism is controlled, and the downstream continuation remains coherent under the corrupted state. Starting from a verified symbolic reasoning chain, our method injects a template-aware error at a selected intermediate step, recomputes all subsequent steps under the corrupted state, and verifies that the injected step is not derivable from its original prefix. The resulting trajectories provide prefix-valid first-error annotations and are translated into aligned natural-language processes for PRM training and evaluation. Experiments show that the synthesized data improve Best-of-8 reranking on logical reasoning benchmarks and show preliminary transfer to mathematical process evaluation.

Yinghui Chi, Yuanhong Wang

Jilin University

Process Reward Models Process Supervision Counterfactual Data Augmentation Reasoning Verification

Jan 21, 2026cs.LG

Counterfactual Modeling with Fine-Tuned LLMs for Health Intervention Design and Sensor Data Augmentation

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide human-centric interpretability by identifying the minimal, actionable changes required to alter a machine learning model's prediction. Therefore, CFs can be used as (i) interventions for abnormality prevention and (ii) augmented data for training robust models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of CF generation using large language models (LLMs), including GPT-4 (zero-shot and few-shot) and two open-source models-BioMistral-7B and LLaMA-3.1-8B, in both pretrained and fine-tuned configurations. Using the multimodal AI-READI clinical dataset, we assess CFs across three dimensions: intervention quality, feature diversity, and augmentation effectiveness. Fine-tuned LLMs, particularly LLaMA-3.1-8B, produce CFs with high plausibility (up to 99%), strong validity (up to 0.99), and realistic, behaviorally modifiable feature adjustments. When used for data augmentation under controlled label-scarcity settings, LLM-generated CFs substantially restore classifier performance, yielding an average 20% F1 recovery across three scarcity scenarios. Compared with optimization-based baselines such as DiCE, CFNOW, and NICE, LLMs offer a flexible, model-agnostic approach that generates more clinically actionable and semantically coherent counterfactuals. Overall, this work demonstrates the promise of LLM-driven counterfactuals for both interpretable intervention design and data-efficient model training in sensor-based digital health. Impact: SenseCF fine-tunes an LLM to generate valid, representative counterfactual explanations and supplement minority class in an imbalanced dataset for improving model training and boosting model robustness and predictive performance

Shovito Barua Soumma, Asiful Arefeen, Stephanie M. Carpenter +2

College of Health Solutions, Arizona State University, Phoenix, AZ 85004, USA. · School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA. · School of Nutritional Sciences and Wellness, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

Counterfactual Explanations LLM Fine-Tuning Counterfactual Reasoning in Language Models Counterfactual Data Augmentation Medical LLMs Counterfactual Learning

Nov 18, 2025cs.CV

Error-Driven Scene Editing for 3D Grounding in Large Language Models

Despite recent progress in 3D-LLMs, they remain limited in accurately grounding language to visual and spatial elements in 3D environments. This limitation stems in part from training data that focuses on language reasoning rather than spatial understanding due to scarce 3D resources, leaving inherent grounding biases unresolved. To address this, we propose 3D scene editing as a key mechanism to generate visual counterfactuals that mitigate these biases through fine-grained spatial manipulation, without requiring costly scene reconstruction or large-scale 3D data collection. Furthermore, to make these edits targeted and directly address the specific weaknesses of the model, we introduce DEER-3D, an error-driven framework that diagnoses grounding failures and generates targeted counterfactual training supervision via a structured "Decompose, Diagnose, Edit, and Retrain" loop. Specifically, given a grounding failure, DEER-3D first identifies the predicate-level error (e.g., attribute or spatial relation). It then performs minimal predicate-aligned scene edits, such as recoloring or repositioning, and constructs aligned question-answer pairs that explicitly target the failed predicate, forming targeted counterfactual training examples. We evaluate our editing pipeline across multiple benchmarks for 3D grounding and scene understanding tasks, consistently demonstrating improvements across all grounding datasets through iterative refinement (4-6% gains). DEER-3D underscores the effectiveness of targeted, error-driven scene editing in bridging linguistic reasoning with spatial grounding in 3D LLMs.

Yue Zhang, Zun Wang, Han Lin +5

UNC Chapel Hill · University of Michigan · Google Research

3D Scene Editing 3D Spatial Reasoning Counterfactual Data Augmentation 3D VLMs 3D Visual Grounding

Nov 15, 2025cs.CV

Did Models Learn Sufficiently? Attribution-Guided Training via Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation

Current visual models often make predictions based on a limited set of discriminative visual cues. As a result, they may become unreliable when the distribution shifts or when these cues are missing. Faithful attribution methods can reveal such problematic reliance through localized explanations, but they are typically used post hoc and are not fed back into the model. To address this limitation, we propose Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation (SS-CA), a training strategy that masks decision-relevant regions to construct counterfactual samples and guide the model toward more robust decision boundaries. Specifically, we extend LIMA, a subset-selection-based faithful attribution method, to Counterfactual LIMA to identify regions whose removal shifts the model toward a competing class. SS-CA then selects near-boundary masks that reduce the logit gap while preserving the original semantics, and applies an adaptive counterfactual filling strategy to replace the masked regions without introducing external semantics. Feeding these counterfactual samples back into training encourages the model to exploit the remaining informative evidence and shifts the decision boundary toward a more robust one. Extensive experiments across five ImageNet variants show that SS-CA effectively improves ID accuracy, OOD generalization, and perturbation robustness, achieving gains of 5.70%/18.04% on ImageNet-1k/ImageNet-R with CLIP ViT/32b, 9.52%/11.33% on ImageNet-R/ImageNet-S on TinyImageNet-200 with ResNet-101, and about 4% under Gaussian Noise corruption. The code will be released soon.

Yannan Chen, Ruoyu Chen, Wei Wang +6

School of Cyber Science and Technology, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangdong Province, China · Institute of Perception, PC Laboratory, Guangdong Province, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China +3

Adversarial Robustness OOD Generalization Counterfactual Data Augmentation Counterfactual Learning