Counterfactual Explanations

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12 papers in the last four weeks, up 71% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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What Do They See? Interpreting Complex Road Scenarios Through the Eyes of Vision-Language-Action Models for Safe and Trustworthy Autonomous Vehicle Learning
Jul 18, 2026Kalpana Panda, Wesley Maia, Vinti Agarwal +1Autonomous Driving Datasets Counterfactual Explanations
Department of Computer Science and Information Systems, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India · Machine Intelligence, Interaction, and Imagination (Mi3) Lab, University of California, Merced, United States
Counterfactuals for Feature-Weighted Clustering
Jul 16, 2026Richard J. Fawley, Renato Cordeiro de AmorimCounterfactual Explanations Clustering
School of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering, University of Essex, Wivenhoe, UK.
Constraint-Aware Counterfactual Editing for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis
Jul 15, 2026S M Rafiuddin, Vamsi Krishna Pavuluri, Atriya SenCounterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Department of Computer Science, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA
Optimized Instance Alteration for Explaining and Assessing Robustness of Classifiers
Jul 7, 2026Evgenii Kuriabov, David Miller, Jia LiCounterfactual Explanations Adversarial Robustness
Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA · Department of Electrical Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
Two Black Boxes, One Solver: Encoder Probing and Decoder Attribution for Neural Multi-Attribute VRP under Hard-Mask and Recourse Decoders
Jul 5, 2026Sohaib AfifiGradient-Based Attribution Counterfactual Explanations
Univ. Artois, UR 3926, Laboratoire de G´enie Informatique et d’Automatique de l’Artois (LGI2A), F-62400 B´ethune, France
Adaptive Group-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Time-Series Rehabilitation Data
Jul 2, 2026Emmanuel C. Chukwu, Rianne M. Schouten, Monique Tabak +1Counterfactual Explanations
Eindhoven University of Technology Eindhoven, the Netherlands · University of Twente Enschede, the Netherlands
Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan
Jul 2, 2026Keita Kinjo, Takeshi EbinaCounterfactual Explanations
Faculty of Business Studies, Kyoritsu Women’s University, 2-2-1, Hitotsubashi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8437, Japan · School of Commerce, Meiji University, 1-1, Kanda-surugadai, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 101-8301, Japan
Introspective Coupling: Self-Explanation Training Tracks Behavioral Change Despite Fixed Supervision
Jun 30, 2026Zifan Carl Guo, Laura Ruis, Jacob Andreas +1Counterfactual Explanations Faithfulness of Language Model Explanations
MIT EECS
Beyond But-for Test: Counterfactual Explanation in Abstract Argumentation via Actual Causality (Extended Version)
Jun 30, 2026Siyi Liu, Muyun Shao, Beishui LiaoCounterfactual Explanations Actual Causality
Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Generating Input Distributions for Explaining Portfolio Optimization Pipelines
Jun 24, 2026Batuhan Ataş, Nurşen Aydın, E. Mehmet Kıral +1Counterfactual Explanations Predict-Then-Optimize
Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands · Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, United Kingdom · RIKEN AIP, Japan
A Completion-Aware Framework for Impactful Counterfactual Explainability in Graph Neural Networks
Jun 20, 2026Maria Myrto Villia, Filippos Gouidis, Theodore Patkos +1Counterfactual Explanations GNN Explainability
Institute of Computer Science, Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH), Heraklion, Greece · Computer Science Department, University of Crete, Greece
Target-confidence Recourse Using tSeTlin machines: TRUST
Jun 17, 2026K. Darshana Abeyrathna, Sara El Mekkaoui, Nils Enric Canut Taugbøl +1Counterfactual Explanations Algorithmic Recourse
Group Research and Development Det Norske Veritas (DNV) Oslo, Norway
P $^2$ CE: Model-Agnostic Plausible Pareto-Optimal Counterfactual Explanations
Jun 16, 2026Arthur Hendricks Mendes de Oliveira, Giovani Valdrighi, Marcos Medeiros RaimundoCounterfactual Explanations Multi-Objective Optimization
Instituto de Computa¸c˜ao, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Albert Einstein Avenue, Campinas, 13083-889, S˜ao Paulo, Brazil.
ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting
Jun 16, 2026Jan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen +1Explainable Time Series Forecasting Counterfactual Explanations
Institute for Technologies and Management of Digital Transformation University of Wuppertal
Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations
Jun 14, 2026Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Faculty of CSE, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), VNUHCM, Vietnam · Dept. of AI, FPT University, Vietnam · Faculty of DSAI, College of Technology, National Economic University, Vietnam +1
A Definition of Good Explanations and the Challenges Explaining LLM Outputs
Jun 12, 2026Louis Mahon, Elliot Ford, Callum HackettExplainable Artificial Intelligence Counterfactual Explanations
UnlikelyAI, London, UK
Agentic Search for Counterfactual Recourse under Fixed LLM Budgets
Jun 7, 2026Yasuo TabeiCounterfactual Explanations Large Language Model-Guided Optimization
RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project Tokyo, Japan
Quantifying the Privacy of Counterfactuals by Leveraging Membership Inference Attacks Against Synthetic Data
Jun 4, 2026Maryam Babaei, Yingke Wang, Hadrien Lautraite +3Counterfactual Explanations Membership Inference Attacks
ÉTS Montreal and Mila, Canada · UQAM, Canada · ÉTS Montreal, Canada +1
A Geometric View of Counterfactual Behavior: Interaction of Boundary Proximity and Local Support
Jun 2, 2026Ioanna Gemou, Matteo Gamba, Randall Balestriero +1Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Brown University
Brain-Atlas-Guided Generative Counterfactual Attention for Explainable Cognitive Decline Diagnosis Using Multimodal Connectomes
May 31, 2026Xiongri Shen, Jiaqi Wang, Zhenxi Song +5Alzheimer's Disease Counterfactual Explanations
Department of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen, 518055, China · School of Intelligence Science and Engineering, College of Artificial Intelligence, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, 518055, China · School of Biomedical Engineering, National-Regional Key Technology Engineering Laboratory for Medical Ultrasound, Guangdong Key Laboratory for Biomedical, Measurements and Ultrasound Imaging, Shenzhen University Medical School, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518055, China
TabChange: Precise Attribute Changes in Tabular Data
May 30, 2026Arjun Dahal, Yu Lei, Raghu N. Kacker +1Adversarial Representation Learning Counterfactual Explanations
The University of Texas at Arlington · Arlington, Texas, USA · Information Technology Laboratory +2
Counterfactual Explanations for Deep Two-Sample Testing
May 29, 2026Wei-Cheng Lai, Marco Simnacher, Christoph LippertTwo-Sample Testing Counterfactual Explanations
Digital Health and Machine Learning Hasso-Plattner-Institute, University of Potsdam Potsdam, Germany · Chair of Statistics Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin Berlin, Germany · Hasso Plattner Institute for Digital Health at Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai New York, United States of America
Density-Guided Robust Counterfactual Explanations on Tabular Data under Model Multiplicity
May 29, 2026Jun Tan, Qing Guo, Zicheng Xu +3Counterfactual Explanations
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China.
ExDBSCAN: Explaining DBSCAN with Counterfactual Reasoning -- Additional Material
May 28, 2026Pernille Matthews, Lena Krieger, Tommaso Amico +3Explainable Artificial Intelligence Counterfactual Explanations
LMU Munich, DBS, MCML Munich, Germany
Constraint-Anchored Attribution: Feasibility-Certified Counterfactuals and Bonferroni-PAC Sufficient Subsets for Neural CO Policies
May 24, 2026Sohaib LafifiFeature Attribution Counterfactual Explanations
Univ. Artois, UR 3926, Laboratoire de Génie Informatique et d’Automatique de l’Artois (LGI2A) Béthune, France
Counterfactual Explanations Under Concept Drift
May 17, 2026Marcin Kostrzewa, Jerzy Stefanowski, Maciej ZiębaCounterfactual Explanations Concept Drift
Wrocław University of Science and Technology · Pozna´n University of Technology · Tooploox
UNR-Explainer: Counterfactual Explanations for Unsupervised Node Representation Learning Models
May 17, 2026Hyunju Kang, Geonhee Han, Hogun ParkCounterfactual Explanations Unsupervised Representation Learning
Department of Artificial Intelligence Sungkyunkwan University Suwon, Republic of Korea
Revealing the Gap in Human and VLM Scene Perception through Counterfactual Semantic Saliency
May 13, 2026Ziqi Wen, Parsa Madinei, Miguel P. EcksteinVLM Evaluation Vision-Language Models
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Santa Barbara · Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of California, Santa Barbara
Do Fair Models Reason Fairly? Counterfactual Explanation Consistency for Procedural Fairness in Credit Decisions
May 12, 2026Gideon Popoola, John SheppardFeature Attribution Counterfactual Explanations
Gianforte School of Computing Montana State University Bozeman, MT, USA, 59715
Macro: Enhancing Multilingual Counterfactual Explanations through Alignment-as-Preference Optimization
May 12, 2026Yilong Wang, Qianli Wang, Bohao Chu +3Multilingual Language Models Counterfactual Explanations
1Technische Universität Berlin · 2German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI) · University of Duisburg-Essen +5

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What Do They See? Interpreting Complex Road Scenarios Through the Eyes of Vision-Language-Action Models for Safe and Trustworthy Autonomous Vehicle Learning

Kalpana Panda, Wesley Maia, Vinti Agarwal, Ross Greer

Department of Computer Science and Information Systems, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani, India · Machine Intelligence, Interaction, and Imagination (Mi3) Lab, University of California, Merced, United States

Autonomous Driving Datasets Counterfactual Explanations Vision-Language-Action Models Autonomous Driving Planning

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End-to-end autonomous driving models are now able to navigate complex road scenarios, mapping raw sensor observations directly to observed paths for open-loop evaluation and often effective driving in closed-loop evaluation. Yet the internal logic of these safety-critical systems remains largely opaque, due to the complexity of traffic scenes. We propose a counterfactual ablation framework called Counterfactual Vision Action Analysis (CVAA) that systematically removes individual detected objects from front-camera images using photorealistic generative inpainting to prepare counterfactual sets to evaluate the difference in the model's response. This isolates the causal effect of each object's presence on the model's planning behaviour. Applied to the Alpamayo 1 trajectory predictor across 210 nuScenes driving scenes, we create a dataset Counter -nuScenes, using which we see that vehicles and pedestrians within the model's 'path' dominate causal influence as expected, while traffic lights, as expected, exert disproportionate effect relative to their image footprint. However, we also find cases where the model responds strongly to objects a human driver would consider irrelevant. This brings forth a deeper question: does the model itself view the scene as a sum of individual objects influencing the outcome, or does it encode an entirely different set of internal features that do not correspond to human-legible scene elements? To further understand this, we compare intermediate representations of original and inpainted image pairs using mechanistic interpretability techniques and examine the effect of the removal through the various model layers. Together, these two stages offer a path from behavioral auditing to representational understanding, creating explainable driving systems and solidifying human-AI trust.

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