Counterfactual Learning

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8 papers in the last four weeks, up 100% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Counterfactual Route Optimization for Gaussian Head Avatar Modeling
Oct 7, 2026Shikun Zhang, Yong Li, Yiqun Wang +23D Avatar Generation Multi-Objective Optimization
Department of Data Science and AI, Monash University, Australia · College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, China
World Models Dream of Success: Diagnosing and Repairing Failure Insensitivity in Robot World Models
Oct 6, 2026Jiuyi Xu, Xiao Hu, Meida Chen +3World Models for Robotics Action-Conditioned World Models
Colorado School of Mines · Northeastern University · Institute for Creative Technologies, University of Southern California +1
Independent Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Counterfactual Semantic-Social World Models
Oct 6, 2026Fernando Martinez, Tao Li, Yingdong Lu +1Sequential MARL Action-Conditioned World Models
Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Fordham University, New York, NY, 10023, USA · Department of Systems Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, 999077, China · IBM Research, Yorktown Heights, NY, 10598, USA
Counterfactual Generation via Flow Matching: Coupling-Sensitive End-to-End Rates
Oct 1, 2026Yunrui Guan, Krishnakumar Balasubramanian, Shiva Prasad KasiviswanathanFlow Matching Causal Counterfactual Generation
Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Johns Hopkins University. · Amazon · Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis.
ASCT: Attentive Search over Counterfactual Trees for Credit Assignment in Agentic Reinforcement Learning
Sep 28, 2026Yang Li, Jinhan Yang, hai liu +8Agentic RL Credit Assignment in RL
University of Hong Kong · The Chinese University of Hong Kong · Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University +1
Counterfactual Rollout Replay: Forkable Environments as Free Process Rewards for Software Engineering Agents
Sep 27, 2026Yuanhao Li, Hongbo Wang, Xuhong Chen +2RL for Code Generation Software Engineering Agents
State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China · University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg
OSCC: Certified Observation-Safe Coupling Optimization for Gradient-Noise Control in Imperfect-Information Learning
Sep 27, 2026Miaobo Hu, Shuhao Hu, Xiaobo Guo +5Partially Observable RL Policy Gradient Methods
School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China · Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
PCQC: Privileged Counterfactual Question Credit for Multi-Turn Medical Dialogue
Sep 23, 2026Chenxuan Li, Jiayi Wan, Xinrong Chen +3Clinical Reasoning Medical LLMs
Peking University, Beijing, China · Department of Medical Bioinformatics, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China
Dual-Frontier: When Can an Agent Trust Its World Model?
Sep 22, 2026Huatai Zhu, Qiang Chen, Ziqian Kou +5World Model-Based Planning Model-Based Planning
Central South University · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology · Xiangjiang Laboratory +2
Conformal Policy Learning with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees
Sep 15, 2026Ying Jin, Naoki EgamiConformal Prediction Causal Inference
Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Pennsylvania · Department of Political Science & Statistics and Data Science Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
scDEFT: A deep learning framework for drug-effect prediction and counterfactual reasoning
Sep 9, 2026Murthy DevarakondaSingle-Cell Perturbation Modeling Clinical Outcome Prediction
Causal Data AI (causaldata.ai)
Learned, Then Lost: A Measured Single-Example Counterfactual in Pre-training
Aug 19, 2026Zachary Speck, Asa ShepardLanguage Model Pretraining Memorization in Language Models
Arizona State University · Williams College
Counterfactual Contrastive Analysis
Aug 19, 2026Yunlong He, Pietro GoriCounterfactual Explanations Image Generation
LTCI, Télécom Paris, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, France
Low-Rank Dynamics-Effective Latent Carriers for Counterfactual Rollout in Learned World Models
Aug 15, 2026Yang Liu, Yuming ChenWorld Model Learning Latent World Models
College of Intelligent Robotics and Advanced Manufacturing, Fudan University Shanghai, China
Chance-constrained selection of sequential intervention strategies from counterfactual estimates
Aug 13, 2026Minkyoung Kim, Beakcheol JangStochastic Optimization Chance-Constrained Optimization
Graduate School of Information, Yonsei University, 50 Yonsei-ro, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, 03722, Republic of Korea
A Distribution Mapping Approach to Counterfactually Fair Reinforcement Learning
Aug 9, 2026Jianhan Zhang, Jitao Wang, John D. Piette +3Causal Counterfactual Generation Algorithmic Fairness
University of Michigan · LSE
Overcoming Statistical Bias in Action-Controllable World Models
Aug 5, 2026Yuhong Shi, Zhenhao Chu, Jie Wei +3World Models Action-Conditioned World Models
Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China · China Mobile (Shanghai) Information and Communication Technology Co., Ltd., Shanghai, China · Zhongguancun Academy, Beijing, China
Not Every Divergence Should Be Suppressed: Counterfactual Recoverability in On-Policy Distillation
Aug 5, 2026De Jiang, Zhengyang Zhang, Kehong Yuan +1Language Model Distillation On-Policy Distillation
AlphaG-OPD: Reliability-Gated Sibling Counterfactuals for On-Policy Distillation in Symbolic Alpha Factor Discovery
Aug 2, 2026Yaoyu SuQuantitative Finance Generative Flow Networks
Class-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Counterfactual Explanation Generation
Jul 30, 2026Muhammad Adil Saleem, Syed Ali Raza, Mary-Anne WilliamsCounterfactual Explanations Counterfactual Learning
Department of Computer Science, Institute of Business Administration Karachi, University Road, Karachi, 75270, Pakistan. · Commonwealth Bank of Australia, The Foundry, 1 Locomotive St, Eveleigh NSW 2015, Sydney, 2015, NSW, Australia. · Stanford University, Stanford, 94305, California, USA. +1
CHILL-Harness: Counterfactual Harness Learning for Efficient Reasoning in Long-Horizon Agents
Jul 28, 2026Jiarun Fu, Lizhong Ding, Sida Chen +6Agent Harness Optimization Long-Horizon LLM Agents
School of Computer Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China
Counterfactual Motion Reliability Learning for Robust UAV Tracking
Jul 25, 2026Yuehai ChenVisual Object Tracking Counterfactual Learning
Faculty of Electronics and Information Engineering and the Institute for Low-Altitude Regulation, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China
Counterfactual Shapley Credit Assignment
Jul 18, 2026Mingxuan Li, Kai-Zhan Lee, Elias BareinboimCredit Assignment in RL Temporal Credit Assignment
Department of Computer Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
CausalGraphX: A Counterfactual Graph Neural Network Framework for Explainable Systemic Risk Assessment
Jul 15, 2026Rabimba Karanjai, Hemanth Madhavarao, Lei Xu +1Causal Representation Learning AI Risk Management
University of Houston · PayPal Inc. · Kent State University
Counterfactual Optimal Action Trees (COAT): Interpretable Prescriptive Policies from Observational Data
Jul 15, 2026Youssef Drissi, Markus Ettl, Shivaram Subramanian +2Decision Tree Learning Dynamic Pricing
IBM Research
Resist and Update: Counterfactual Report Coordinates for Incentive-Compatible LLMs
Jul 14, 2026Sen Yang, Yuen-Hei YeungLLM Alignment Causal Interventions in Language Models
Stern School of Business · New York University · Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Play Like Champions: Counterfactual Feedback Generation in Latent Space
Jun 30, 2026Andrzej Białecki, Adam Mastalerz, Han ZhouCounterfactual Learning Algorithmic Recourse
Warsaw University of Technology · Silesian University of Technology · University of British Columbia
An Introduction to Causal Reinforcement Learning
Jun 23, 2026Elias Bareinboim, Junzhe Zhang, Sanghack LeeReinforcement Learning Causal Inference
Department of Computer Science Columbia University New York, USA · Graduate School of Data Science Seoul National University Seoul, Republic of Korea
ConTex: Reformulating Counterfactual Generation For Time Series Forecasting
Jun 16, 2026Jan Voets, Hasan Tercan, Tobias Meisen +1Explainable Time Series Forecasting Counterfactual Explanations
Institute for Technologies and Management of Digital Transformation University of Wuppertal
Faithful Action-unit Causal Reasoning for Counterfactually Faithful Emotion Explanations
Jun 14, 2026Van Thong Huynh, Hong Hai Nguyen, Thuy Pham +2Counterfactual Evaluation Counterfactual Explanations
Faculty of CSE, Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HCMUT), VNUHCM, Vietnam · Dept. of AI, FPT University, Vietnam · Faculty of DSAI, College of Technology, National Economic University, Vietnam +1

Oct 7, 2026, cs.CVJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Counterfactual Route Optimization for Gaussian Head Avatar Modeling

Shikun Zhang, Yong Li, Yiqun Wang, Qiuhong Ke+1

Department of Data Science and AI, Monash University, Australia · College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, China

3D Avatar Generation Multi-Objective Optimization 3D Gaussian Splatting Counterfactual Learning

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Head avatar modeling requires jointly optimizing multiple objectives with different dominant effects on geometry, appearance, and cross-view consistency. However, their relative effectiveness varies across training states, while existing pipelines typically rely on fixed loss weights or handcrafted stage-wise schedules. A central challenge is therefore to identify which optimization direction is more beneficial at each training state. We propose a counterfactual route optimization framework for Gaussian head avatar modeling, which characterizes state-dependent optimization preference from the realized effects of alternative updates rather than predefined heuristic weighting. Starting from the same training state, we perform short-horizon route-restricted lookahead over geometry, appearance, and joint update routes and evaluate their outcomes under a unified utility. The resulting counterfactual evidence is factorized into a geometry--appearance preference and a residual joint advantage, separately capturing the relative preference between individual update directions and the additional benefit of coordinated optimization. We further amortize this offline evidence into a lightweight controller that directly estimates the current optimization preference and applies bounded modulation to the training objectives during full avatar optimization. Experiments on the NeRSemble dataset validate the effectiveness of the proposed design, consistently outperforming existing methods while preserving clearer local facial structures and finer details.

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