Counterfactual Learning

Open-vocabulary human-object interaction (HOI) detection requires recognizing interaction phrases that may not appear as annotated categories during training. Recent vision-language HOI detectors improve semantic transfer by matching human-object features with text embeddings, but their predictions are often dominated by object affordance and phrase-level co-occurrence. As a result, a model may predict cut cake from the presence of a knife and a cake without verifying whether the hand, tool, target, contact pattern, and object state jointly support the action. We propose ScriptHOI, a structured framework that represents each interaction phrase as a soft scripted state transition. Rather than treating a phrase as a single class token, ScriptHOI decomposes it into body-role, contact, geometry, affordance, motion, and object-state slots. A visual state tokenizer parses each detected human-object pair into corresponding state tokens, and a slot-wise matcher estimates both script coverage and script conflict. These two quantities calibrate HOI logits, expose missing visual evidence, and provide training constraints for incomplete annotations. To avoid suppressing valid but unannotated interactions, we further introduce interval partial-label learning, which constrains unannotated candidates with script-derived lower and upper probability bounds instead of assigning closed-world negatives. A counterfactual script contrast loss swaps individual script slots to discourage object-only shortcuts. Experiments on HICO-DET, V-COCO, and open-vocabulary HOI splits show that ScriptHOI improves rare and unseen interaction recognition while substantially reducing affordance-conflict false positives.

Existing prompt learning for VLMs exhibits a modality asymmetry, predominantly optimizing text tokens while still relying on frozen visual encoder as holistic extractor and neglecting the spectral granularity essential for fine-grained discrimination. To bridge this, we introduce Disentangling Spectral Granularity for Prompt Learning (SpecPL), which approaches prompt learning from a novel spectral perspective via Counterfactual Granule Supervision. Specifically, we leverage a frozen VAE to decompose visual signals into semantic low-frequency bands and granular high-frequency details. A frozen Visual Semantic Bank anchors text representations to universal low-frequency invariants, mitigating overfitting. Crucially, fine-grained discrimination is driven by counterfactual granule training: by permuting high-frequency signals, we compel the model to explicitly distinguish visual granularity from semantic invariance. Uniquely, SpecPL serves as a universal plug-and-play booster, revitalizing text-oriented baselines like CoOp and MaPLe via visual-side guidance. Experiments on 11 benchmarks demonstrate competitive state-of-the-art performance, achieving a new performance ceiling of 81.51% harmonic-mean accuracy. These results validate that spectral disentanglement with counterfactual supervision effectively bridges the gap in the stability-generalization trade-off. Code is released at https://github.com/Mlrac1e/SpecPL-Prompt-Learning.

Open-loop imitation learning has advanced modern autonomous driving policy architectures, but closed-loop deployment remains vulnerable to policy-induced distribution shift. Existing post-training paradigms exhibit fundamental trade-offs: closed-loop RL fine-tuning provides grounded feedback from executed actions but is constrained by the sparsity of informative events, whereas counterfactual fine-tuning provides dense supervision over candidate futures but inherits bias from imperfect future estimates. We introduce Counterfactual-to-Interactive Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (CRAFT), an on-policy framework that formulates closed-loop post-training as proxy-residual optimization. CRAFT uses group-normalized counterfactual advantages as a dense proxy for real closed-loop advantages and aligns this proxy with the closed-loop world through grounded residual correction from interaction-critical events. To stabilize adaptation, CRAFT regularizes the online policy toward an EMA teacher via asymmetric KL self-distillation. Theoretically, CRAFT decomposes the real closed-loop policy gradient into proxy and residual terms under the same visited-state distribution, reducing residual variance with an aligned proxy while mitigating proxy bias through grounded residual approximation. Empirically, CRAFT achieves the strongest closed-loop gains on Bench2Drive across hierarchical planning, vision-language-action, and vocabulary-scoring architectures. Ablations, scaling behavior, stability analyses, and transfer results further validate the complementary roles of dense counterfactual proxy and grounded residual correction. Project page: https://currychen77.github.io/CRAFT.

Structural causal models provide a unified semantics for interventions and counterfactuals, but most identifiability results rely on restrictive assumptions like global monotonicity, which are often violated in embodied interaction, where the same exogenous perturbation can induce opposite responses under different contact contexts. We ask what structure still suffices once global monotonicity is dropped. We introduce non-monotone triangular structural causal models (NM-TM-SCM), which retain triangular recursion but replace global monotonicity with mechanism-wise invertibility and context-independent inverse transport. We prove that these conditions are equivalent to exogenous isomorphism and imply complete counterfactual identifiability, and we give a counterexample showing that local invertibility alone is insufficient. We instantiate the theory in CausalInverter, with triangular invertible layers, orientation gates, and transport-stability regularization. On synthetic non-monotonic mechanisms, the structural bias yields systematic counterfactual gains as non-monotonicity increases. On MuJoCo Door, our model achieves perfect event-level counterfactual recovery, lowers continuous angle error relative to a Transformer baseline, and delivers substantially more stable recovery than Transformer and conditional-flow predictors. On MuJoCo Push, where non-monotonicity is weaker, the same low-data predictors remain competitive or better, consistent with a bias-variance boundary. These results identify a broader identifiable regime between globally monotone triangular models and unconstrained black-box world models.

Single-arm trials accelerate study timelines by reducing the number of patients that must be recruited for a concurrent control group. However, these designs require an alternative comparator to estimate treatment effects. One approach is to construct a virtual control arm using a machine learning (ML) model trained on external control data to predict the counterfactual outcomes of the treatment arm. Our aim in this study was to leverage virtual controls by developing and evaluating ML-based counterfactual outcome models trained on IFX-treated patients to predict 1-year steroid-free clinical remission (SFCR ) and a composite of C-reactive protein remission plus steroid-free clinical remission (CRP-SFCR) for ADA-treated pediatric Crohn's disease patients, and to compare the resulting IFX-versus-ADA treatment effect estimates with those obtained using propensity score matching to external controls. Five ML models were used to train counterfactual models on the observed IFX cohort data. The resulting models were used to predict the counterfactual outcomes for the ADA arm patients. LGBM yields the best OR closest to the propensity score matched reference, and all 95% CI results align with the conclusion from the reference study that no statistical difference in the primary and secondary outcomes has been observed between the patients treated with ADA or IFX. Our study supports virtual controls as a viable and effective substitute for expensive, lengthy or unethical patient recruitment in an inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) trial. The developed gradient boosted prediction model can be used as a pretrained model to generate IFX counterfactual predictions in future studies, pending external validation and assessment of transportability.

Predicting the outcomes of prospective clinical trials remains a major challenge for large language models. Prior work has shown that both traditional correlational predictors, such as random forests and logistic regression, and strong commercial LLMs achieve limited performance on this task. In this paper, we propose DeepImagine, a framework for teaching LLMs biomedical reasoning through successive counterfactual imagining. The central idea is to approximate hidden causal mechanisms of clinical trials by training models to infer how observed trial results would change under controlled perturbations of experimental conditions, such as dosage, outcome measures, study arms, geography, and other trial attributes. To support this objective, we construct both natural and approximate counterfactual pairs from real clinical trials with reported outcomes. For settings where strict counterfactual supervision is available, such as paired outcome measures or dose-ranging study arms within the same trial, we train models with supervised fine-tuning. For broader settings where only approximate counterfactual pairs can be retrieved, we optimize models with reinforcement learning using verifiable rewards based on downstream benchmark correctness. We further augment training with synthetic reasoning traces that provide causally plausible explanations for local counterfactual transitions. Using this pipeline, we train language models under 10B parameters, including Qwen3.5-9B, and evaluate them on clinical trial outcome prediction. We aim to show that DeepImagine consistently improves over untuned language models and traditional correlational baselines. Finally, we aim to show that the learned reasoning trajectories provide interpretable signals about how models represent trial-level mechanisms, suggesting a practical path toward more mechanistic and scientifically useful biomedical language models.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) are essential for interpreting black-box models, yet they often become invalid when models are slightly changed. Existing methods for generating robust CFEs are often limited to specific types of models, require costly tuning, or inflexible robustness controls. We propose a novel approach that jointly models the data distribution and the space of plausible model decisions to ensure robustness to model changes. Using a probabilistic consensus over a model ensemble, we train a conditional normalizing flow that captures the data density under varying levels of classifier agreement. At inference time, a single interpretable parameter controls the robustness level; it specifies the minimum fraction of models that should agree on the target class without retraining the generative model. Our method effectively pushes CFEs toward regions that are both plausible and stable across model changes. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior empirical robustness while also maintaining good performance across other evaluation measures.

Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) recovers the loss function of a forward learner from its observed responses. Adaptive IRL aims to reconstruct the loss function of a forward learner by passively observing its gradients as it performs reinforcement learning (RL). This paper proposes a novel passive Langevin-based algorithm that achieves adaptive IRL. The key difficulty in adaptive IRL is that the required gradients in the passive algorithm are counterfactual, that is, they are conditioned on events of probability zero under the forward learner's trajectory. Therefore, naive Monte Carlo estimators are prohibitively inefficient, and kernel smoothing, though common, suffers from slow convergence. We overcome this by employing Malliavin calculus to efficiently estimate the required counterfactual gradients. We reformulate the counterfactual conditioning as a ratio of unconditioned expectations involving Malliavin quantities, thus recovering standard estimation rates. We derive the necessary Malliavin derivatives and their adjoint Skorohod integral formulations for a general Langevin structure, and provide a concrete algorithmic approach which exploits these for counterfactual gradient estimation.

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient estimation. We introduce causal autoencoding and treatment conditioning (CAETC), a novel method for this problem. Built on adversarial representation learning, our method leverages an autoencoding architecture to learn a partially invertible and treatment-invariant representation, where the outcome prediction task is cast as applying a treatment-specific conditioning on the representation. Our design is independent of the underlying sequence model and can be applied to existing architectures such as long short-term memories (LSTMs) or temporal convolution networks (TCNs). We conduct extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world data to demonstrate that CAETC yields significant improvement in counterfactual estimation over existing methods.

Micro-expression Action Unit (AU) detection identifies localized AUs from subtle facial muscle activations, providing a foundation for decoding affective cues. Previous methods face three key limitations: (1) heavy reliance on low-density visual information, rendering discriminative evidence vulnerable to background noise; (2) coarse-grained feature processing that misaligns with the demand for fine-grained representations; and (3) neglect of inter-AU correlations, restricting the parsing of complex expression patterns. We propose AULLM++, a reasoning-oriented framework leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which injects visual features into textual prompts as actionable semantic premises to guide inference. It formulates AU prediction into three stages: evidence construction, structure modeling, and deduction-based prediction. Specifically, a Multi-Granularity Evidence-Enhanced Fusion Projector (MGE-EFP) fuses mid-level texture cues with high-level semantics, distilling them into a compact Content Token (CT). Furthermore, inspired by micro- and macro-expression AU correspondence, we encode AU relationships as a sparse structural prior and learn interaction strengths via a Relation-Aware AU Graph Neural Network (R-AUGNN), producing an Instruction Token (IT). We then fuse CT and IT into a structured textual prompt and introduce Counterfactual Consistency Regularization (CCR) to construct counterfactual samples, enhancing the model's generalization. Extensive experiments demonstrate AULLM++ achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks and exhibits superior cross-domain generalization.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are increasingly adopted across domains such as molecular biology and social network analysis, yet their black-box nature hinders interpretability and trust. This is especially problematic in high-stakes applications, such as predicting molecule toxicity, drug discovery, or guiding financial fraud detections, where transparent explanations are essential. Counterfactual explanations - minimal changes that flip a model's prediction - offer a transparent lens into GNNs' behavior. In this work, we introduce XPlore, a novel technique that significantly broadens the counterfactual search space. It consists of gradient-guided perturbations to adjacency and node feature matrices. Unlike most prior methods, which focus solely on edge deletions, our approach belongs to the growing class of techniques that optimize edge insertions and node-feature perturbations, here jointly performed under a unified gradient-based framework, enabling a richer and more nuanced exploration of counterfactuals. To quantify both structural and semantic fidelity, we introduce a cosine similarity metric for learned graph embeddings that addresses a key limitation of traditional distance-based metrics, and demonstrate that XPlore produces more coherent and minimal counterfactuals. Empirical results on 13 real-world and 5 synthetic benchmarks show up to +56.3% improvement in validity and +52.8% in fidelity over state-of-the-art baselines, while retaining competitive runtime.

Market regime shifts induce distribution shifts that can degrade the performance of portfolio rebalancing policies. We propose macro-conditioned scenario-context rollout (SCR) that generates plausible next-day multivariate return scenarios under stress events. However, doing so faces new challenges, as history will never tell what would have happened differently. As a result, incorporating scenario-based rewards from rollouts introduces a reward--transition mismatch in temporal-difference learning, destabilizing RL critic training. We analyze this inconsistency and show it leads to a mixed evaluation target. Guided by this analysis, we construct a counterfactual next state using the rollout-implied continuations and augment the critic agent's bootstrap target. Doing so stabilizes the learning and provides a viable bias-variance tradeoff. In out-of-sample evaluations across 31 distinct universes of U.S. equity and ETF portfolios, our method improves Sharpe ratio by up to 76% and reduces maximum drawdown by up to 53% compared with classic and RL-based portfolio rebalancing baselines.

This paper tackles the problem of time-to-event counterfactual survival prediction, aiming to optimize individualized survival outcomes in the presence of heterogeneity and censored data. We propose CURE, a framework that advances counterfactual survival modeling via comprehensive multimodal embedding and latent subgroup retrieval. CURE integrates clinical, paraclinical, demographic, and multi-omics information, which are aligned and fused through cross-attention mechanisms. Complex multi-omics signals can be adaptively refined using a mixture-of-experts architecture, emphasizing the most informative omics components. Building upon this representation, CURE implicitly retrieves patient-specific latent subgroups that capture both baseline survival dynamics and treatment-dependent variations. Experimental results on METABRIC and TCGA-LUAD datasets demonstrate that proposed CURE model consistently outperforms strong baselines in survival analysis, evaluated using the Time-dependent Concordance Index ($C^{td}$) and Integrated Brier Score (IBS). These findings highlight the potential of CURE to enhance multimodal understanding and serve as a foundation for future treatment recommendation models. All code and related resources are publicly available to facilitate the reproducibility https://github.com/L2R-UET/CURE.

Graph data is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the growing demand for relational insights in AI across various domains. Organizations regularly use graph data to solve complex problems involving relationships and connections. Causal learning is especially important in this context, since it helps to understand cause-effect relationships rather than mere associations. Since many real-world systems are inherently causal, graphs can efficiently model these systems. However, traditional graph machine learning methods including graph neural networks (GNNs), rely on correlations and are sensitive to spurious patterns and distribution changes. On the other hand, causal models enable robust predictions by isolating true causal factors, thus making them more stable under such shifts. Causal learning also helps in identifying and adjusting for confounders, ensuring that predictions reflect true causal relationships and remain accurate even under interventions. To address these challenges and build models that are robust and causally informed, we propose CCAGNN, a Confounder-Aware causal GNN framework that incorporates causal reasoning into graph learning, supporting counterfactual reasoning and providing reliable predictions in real-world settings. Comprehensive experiments on six publicly available datasets from diverse domains show that CCAGNN consistently outperforms leading state-of-the-art models.

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) provide human-centric interpretability by identifying the minimal, actionable changes required to alter a machine learning model's prediction. Therefore, CFs can be used as (i) interventions for abnormality prevention and (ii) augmented data for training robust models. We conduct a comprehensive evaluation of CF generation using large language models (LLMs), including GPT-4 (zero-shot and few-shot) and two open-source models-BioMistral-7B and LLaMA-3.1-8B, in both pretrained and fine-tuned configurations. Using the multimodal AI-READI clinical dataset, we assess CFs across three dimensions: intervention quality, feature diversity, and augmentation effectiveness. Fine-tuned LLMs, particularly LLaMA-3.1-8B, produce CFs with high plausibility (up to 99%), strong validity (up to 0.99), and realistic, behaviorally modifiable feature adjustments. When used for data augmentation under controlled label-scarcity settings, LLM-generated CFs substantially restore classifier performance, yielding an average 20% F1 recovery across three scarcity scenarios. Compared with optimization-based baselines such as DiCE, CFNOW, and NICE, LLMs offer a flexible, model-agnostic approach that generates more clinically actionable and semantically coherent counterfactuals. Overall, this work demonstrates the promise of LLM-driven counterfactuals for both interpretable intervention design and data-efficient model training in sensor-based digital health. Impact: SenseCF fine-tunes an LLM to generate valid, representative counterfactual explanations and supplement minority class in an imbalanced dataset for improving model training and boosting model robustness and predictive performance

Current visual models often make predictions based on a limited set of discriminative visual cues. As a result, they may become unreliable when the distribution shifts or when these cues are missing. Faithful attribution methods can reveal such problematic reliance through localized explanations, but they are typically used post hoc and are not fed back into the model. To address this limitation, we propose Subset-Selected Counterfactual Augmentation (SS-CA), a training strategy that masks decision-relevant regions to construct counterfactual samples and guide the model toward more robust decision boundaries. Specifically, we extend LIMA, a subset-selection-based faithful attribution method, to Counterfactual LIMA to identify regions whose removal shifts the model toward a competing class. SS-CA then selects near-boundary masks that reduce the logit gap while preserving the original semantics, and applies an adaptive counterfactual filling strategy to replace the masked regions without introducing external semantics. Feeding these counterfactual samples back into training encourages the model to exploit the remaining informative evidence and shifts the decision boundary toward a more robust one. Extensive experiments across five ImageNet variants show that SS-CA effectively improves ID accuracy, OOD generalization, and perturbation robustness, achieving gains of 5.70%/18.04% on ImageNet-1k/ImageNet-R with CLIP ViT/32b, 9.52%/11.33% on ImageNet-R/ImageNet-S on TinyImageNet-200 with ResNet-101, and about 4% under Gaussian Noise corruption. The code will be released soon.

Many operational Markov decision processes provide structured information where a trajectory generated under one policy may also reveal how other policies would have performed. We formalize this through an information order over a parameterized policy class, writing $π_{θ'} \preceq π_θ$ when data collected under $π_θ$ can be used to estimate the long-run average cost of $π_{θ'}$. We develop an epoch-based reinforcement learning algorithm for infinite-horizon average-cost MDPs with continuous state and action spaces that exploits this order through counterfactual inference. For a $d$-dimensional policy class whose information order has width $w$, the algorithm achieves $\widetilde O(H\sqrt{wdT/α})$ regret relative to the optimal policy in the class, where $H$ is a bias span upper bound and $α$ denotes an "information ratio". Thus, the width captures the effective exploration complexity of the problem, interpolating between full counterfactual feedback and unstructured policy learning. We instantiate the framework in lost-sales inventory systems with positive lead times, dual-sourcing systems governed by dual-index policies, and queues with state-dependent service rates. These applications yield new regret guarantees without requiring global convexity of the average-cost function or specialized arrival-rate structure. Numerical experiments show that exploiting the information order substantially improves learning performance over existing general-purpose and problem-specific benchmarks.

We study counterfactual regression, which maps features to outcomes under hypothetical scenarios that differ from those observed in the data. This problem is central to decision-making under distribution shift, where treatment patterns may change at deployment. We develop a semiparametric framework for counterfactual regression along a prespecified incremental-intervention path. The target is a finite-dimensional constrained projection of counterfactual risk, estimated using cross-fitted influence-function representations of the program components. For smooth programs with fixed constraints and finite-dimensional programs with estimated linear constraints, we establish consistency and local stability of the optimizer under class-specific conditions, and derive pointwise and uniform first-order expansions. These results yield asymptotically valid inference, including simultaneous confidence bands for the counterfactual regression path. Simulations and an application to SMS reminders illustrate the finite-sample performance and practical applicability of the proposed approach.

Deep learning models exhibit fairness concerns when predictions are inadvertently influenced by sensitive attributes. However, existing attempts to make Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness optimizable rely on estimating marginal potential outcome probabilities-an approach that fundamentally requires high-dimensional conditional density estimation and breaks down in modalities such as medical images, where the curse of dimensionality renders reliable estimation infeasible. To address this limitation, we reduce the problem of enforcing Path-Specific Counterfactual Fairness to a causal conditional independence constraint and prove that satisfying this constraint is sufficient to eliminate the unfair causal effect. This reduction replaces intractable counterfactual estimation with a discriminative optimization objective that remains scalable in high-dimensional settings.

Imperfect Information Games (IIGs) are used to model games under uncertainty or lack complete information. Counterfactual Regret Minimization (CFR) is one of the most successful families of algorithms for IIGs. The integration of skill-based strategy learning with CFR could potentially mirror more human-like decision-making and improve learning on complex IIGs. It enables the learning of a hierarchical strategy, wherein low-level components represent skills for solving subgames and the high-level component manages the transition between skills. In this paper, we introduce the first hierarchical version of Deep CFR (HDCFR), an innovative method that boosts learning efficiency in tasks involving extensively large state spaces and deep game trees. Notably, HDCFR enables learning with predefined (human) expertise and extracting skills transferable to similar tasks. We first present the algorithm and establish its theory in a tabular setting, including hierarchical CFR update rules and a variance-reduced Monte Carlo sampling extension for the model-free setting, where backtracking is infeasible. We then extend HDCFR to large-scale tasks via deep learning objectives that match the tabular targets under exact function fitting. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/HDCFR_RUN-677B.