Educational Data Mining

In this technical report, we present the Educational Data Mining Automated Research System (EDM-ARS), a domain-specific multi-agent pipeline that automates end-to-end educational data mining (EDM) research. We conceptualize EDM-ARS as a general framework for domain-aware automated research pipelines, where educational expertise is embedded into each stage of the research lifecycle. As a first instantiation of this framework, we focus on predictive modeling tasks. Within this scope, EDM-ARS orchestrates five specialized LLM-powered agents (ProblemFormulator, DataEngineer, Analyst, Critic, and Writer) through a state-machine coordinator that supports revision loops, checkpoint-based recovery, and sandboxed code execution. Given a research prompt and a dataset, EDM-ARS produces a complete LaTeX manuscript with real Semantic Scholar citations, validated machine learning analyses, and automated methodological peer review. We also provide a detailed description of the system architecture, the three-tier data registry design that encodes educational domain expertise, the specification of each agent, the inter-agent communication protocol, and mechanisms for error-handling and self-correction. Finally, we discuss current limitations, including single-dataset scope and formulaic paper output, and outline a phased roadmap toward causal inference, transfer learning, psychometric, and multi-dataset generalization. EDM-ARS is released as an open-source project to support the educational research community.

Co-located practical learning leaves evidence in visible actions around patients, task resources and room zones, but these traces are often recovered through live observation or retrospective video review. Fixed wide-angle video could reduce sensing burden, yet a debriefing pipeline must do more than detect behaviours: it must maintain detection after small camera-position shifts, relate the detector-derived behaviour trace to instructor-labelled outcomes and preserve room-zone context. This study evaluates a fixed-camera pipeline in repeated nursing simulation. Using a harmonised six-code taxonomy, we tested YOLO26 target-only training and two-stage source-to-target adaptation across two same-room side-view data sources. We then converted detections from 51 instructor-labelled sessions into one-second behaviour and behaviour-zone traces for rate, ordered-network, transition-network and sequence analyses. Two-stage adaptation improved mean mAP50 from 0.815 to 0.848 for the 2021 target view and from 0.690 to 0.855 for the smaller 2022 target view; with a balanced target quota of $N = 22$, the 2022 model reached 0.850 mAP50. In the detector-derived behaviour trace analyses, higher phone use characterised low task-performance sessions. Zone labels changed the interpretation of patient interaction: primary patient-care-zone interaction was stronger in higher-performance sessions, while secondary-zone interaction was stronger in lower-performance sessions. Ordered and transition network models showed that ordered room-zone relations contributed beyond behaviour frequency, with the strongest task-performance classifier using zoned and co-presence features. The resulting trace is most appropriate for searchable simulation debriefing, where instructors inspect detected moments rather than receive automated assessment scores.

Digital handwriting acquisition enables the capture of detailed temporal and kinematic signals reflecting the motor processes underlying writing behavior. While handwriting analysis has been extensively explored in clinical or adult populations, its potential for studying developmental and educational characteristics in children remains less investigated. In this work, we examine whether handwriting dynamics encode information related to student characteristics using a large-scale online dataset collected from Japanese students from elementary school to junior high school. We systematically compare three families of handwriting-derived features: basic statistical descriptors of kinematic signals, entropy-based measures of variability, and parameters obtained from the sigma-lognormal model. Although the dataset contains dense stroke-level recordings, features are aggregated at the student level to enable a controlled comparison between representations. These features are evaluated across three prediction tasks: grade prediction, gender classification, and academic performance classification, using Linear or Logistic Regression and Random Forest models under consistent experimental settings. The results show that handwriting dynamics contain measurable signals related to developmental stage and individual differences, especially for the grade prediction task. These findings highlight the potential of kinematic handwriting analysis and confirm that through their development, children's handwriting evolves toward a lognormal motor organization.

Digital educational environments are expanding toward complex AI and human discourse, providing researchers with an abundance of data that offers deep insights into learning and instructional processes. However, traditional qualitative analysis remains a labor-intensive bottleneck, severely limiting the scale at which this research can be conducted. We present Sandpiper, a mixed-initiative system designed to serve as a bridge between high-volume conversational data and human qualitative expertise. By tightly coupling interactive researcher dashboards with agentic Large Language Model (LLM) engines, the platform enables scalable analysis without sacrificing methodological rigor. Sandpiper addresses critical barriers to AI adoption in education by implementing context-aware, automated de-identification workflows supported by secure, university-housed infrastructure to ensure data privacy. Furthermore, the system employs schema-constrained orchestration to eliminate LLM hallucinations and enforces strict adherence to qualitative codebooks. An integrated evaluations engine allows for the continuous benchmarking of AI performance against human labels, fostering an iterative approach to model refinement and validation. We propose a user study to evaluate the system's efficacy in improving research efficiency, inter-rater reliability, and researcher trust in AI-assisted qualitative workflows.

Recent research demonstrated that students exhibit consistent learning rates across diverse educational contexts. We test these findings using a dataset of 1.8 million (366k post-filtering) student interactions from the digital platform Campus AI providing further evidence to the observation of regularity in learning rate among students. Unlike prior work requiring manual cognitive modeling, Campus AI automatically generates Knowledge Components (KCs) and corresponding exercises, both of which are validated by human experts. This one-to-many mapping facilitates the application of Additive Factors Models to measure learning parameters without complex cognitive modeling. Using mixed-effects logistic regression, we confirmed the core finding of prior work: students displayed substantial variation in initial knowledge ($\text{IQR} = [2.78, 12.18]$ practice opportunities to reach 80% mastery) but remarkably consistent learning rates ($\text{IQR} = [7.01, 8.25]$ opportunities). Furthermore, students using this fully automated system achieved 80% mastery in a median of 7.22 practice opportunities, comparable to the 6.54 reported for expert-designed curricula. These results suggest that automated, science-grounded content generation can support effective personalized learning at scale. Data and code are publicly available. https://github.com/Campus-edu-AI/learning-rate

This chapter explores the evolution of data-driven hint generation for intelligent tutoring systems (ITS). The Hint Factory and Interaction Networks have enabled the generation of next-step hints, waypoints, and strategic subgoals from historical student data. Data-driven techniques have also enabled systems to find the right time to provide hints. We explore further potential data-driven adaptations for problem solving based on behavioral problem solving data and the integration of Large Language Models (LLMs).

Hypergraph can capture complex and higher-order dependencies among learners and learning resources in personalized educational recommender systems. Many existing hypergraph-based recommendation approaches underexplored the dynamic behavioral processes inherent to learning and often oversimplified the complementary information embedded across multiple dimensions (i.e. views) within hypergraphs. These limitations compromise both the distinctiveness of learned representations and the model's generalization capabilities, especially under data-sparse conditions typical in educational settings. In this study, we propose a unified model comprising a dynamic behavioral profiling module and a multi-view attention fusion module based on heterogeneous hypergraph construction. The dynamic behavioral profiling module is designed to capture evolving behavioral processes and infer latent higher-order relations crucial for hypergraph completion; The multi-view fusion module cohesively integrates information from distinct relational views, enriching the overall data representation. The proposed model was systematically evaluated on five public benchmark datasets and one real-world, self-constructed dataset. Experimental results demonstrate that the model outperforms baseline methods across most datasets in key metrics; Furthermore, hypergraph completion based on dynamic behavioral profiling contributes significantly to performance gains, though its efficacy is modulated by dataset characteristics. Beyond offline experiments, we implemented a functional prototype system tailored for postgraduate student literature recommendation. A mixed-methods user study was conducted to assess its practical utility. Quantitative analysis revealed significantly higher perceived recommendation quality; Qualitative feedback highlighted enhanced user engagement and satisfaction with the prototype system.

Skill extraction and recommendation systems have been studied from recruiter, applicant, and education perspectives. While AI applications in job advertisements have received broad attention, deficiencies in the instructed skills side remain a challenge. In this work, we address the scarcity of publicly available datasets by releasing both manually annotated and synthetic datasets of skills from the European Skills, Competences, Qualifications and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy and university course pairs and publishing corresponding annotation guidelines. Specifically, we match graduate-level university courses with skills from the Systems Analysts and Management and Organization Analyst ESCO occupation groups at two granularities: course title with a skill, and course sentence with a skill. We train language models on this dataset to serve as a baseline for retrieval and recommendation systems for course-to-skill and skill-to-course matching. We evaluate the models on a portion of the annotated data. Our BERT model achieves 87% F1-score, showing that course and skill matching is a feasible task.

Student repetition in secondary education imposes significant resource burdens, particularly in resource-constrained contexts. Addressing this challenge, this study introduces a unified machine learning framework that simultaneously predicts pass/fail outcomes and continuous grades, a departure from prior research that treats classification and regression as separate tasks. Six models were evaluated: Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest for classification, and Linear Regression, Decision Tree Regressor, and Random Forest Regressor for regression, with hyperparameters optimized via exhaustive grid search. Using academic and demographic data from 4424 secondary school students, classification models achieved accuracies of up to 96%, while regression models attained a coefficient of determination of 0.70, surpassing baseline approaches. These results confirm the feasibility of early, data-driven identification of at-risk students and highlight the value of integrating dual-task prediction for more comprehensive insights. By enabling timely, personalized interventions, the framework offers a practical pathway to reducing grade repetition and optimizing resource allocation.

Knowledge Tracing (KT) diagnoses students' concept mastery through continuous learning state monitoring in education.Existing methods primarily focus on studying behavioral sequences based on ID or textual information.While existing methods rely on ID-based sequences or shallow textual features, they often fail to capture (1) the hierarchical evolution of cognitive states and (2) individualized problem difficulty perception due to limited semantic modeling. Therefore, this paper proposes a Large Language Model Hyperbolic Aligned Knowledge Tracing(L-HAKT). First, the teacher agent deeply parses question semantics and explicitly constructs hierarchical dependencies of knowledge points; the student agent simulates learning behaviors to generate synthetic data. Then, contrastive learning is performed between synthetic and real data in hyperbolic space to reduce distribution differences in key features such as question difficulty and forgetting patterns. Finally, by optimizing hyperbolic curvature, we explicitly model the tree-like hierarchical structure of knowledge points, precisely characterizing differences in learning curve morphology for knowledge points at different levels. Extensive experiments on four real-world educational datasets validate the effectiveness of our Large Language Model Hyperbolic Aligned Knowledge Tracing (L-HAKT) framework.

Open datasets play a crucial role in three research domains that intersect data science and education: learning analytics, educational data mining, and artificial intelligence in education. Researchers in these domains apply computational methods to analyze data from educational contexts, aiming to better understand and improve teaching and learning. Providing open datasets alongside research papers supports reproducibility, collaboration, and trust in research findings. It also provides individual benefits for authors, such as greater visibility, credibility, and citation potential. Despite these advantages, the availability of open datasets and the associated practices within the learning analytics research communities, especially at their flagship conference venues, remain unclear. We surveyed available datasets published alongside research papers in learning analytics. We manually examined 1,125 papers from three flagship conferences (LAK, EDM, and AIED) over the past five years. We discovered, categorized, and analyzed 172 datasets used in 204 publications. Our study presents the most comprehensive collection and analysis of open educational datasets to date, along with the most detailed categorization. Of the 172 datasets identified, 143 were not captured in any prior survey of open data in learning analytics. We provide insights into the datasets' context, analytical methods, use, and other properties. Based on this survey, we summarize the current gaps in the field. Furthermore, we list practical recommendations, advice, and 8-item guidelines under the acronym PRACTICE with a checklist to help researchers publish their data. Lastly, we share our original dataset: an annotated inventory detailing the discovered datasets and the corresponding publications. We hope these findings will support further adoption of open data practices in learning analytics communities and beyond.

Mastering educational concepts requires understanding both their prerequisites (e.g., recursion before merge sort) and sub-concepts (e.g., merge sort as part of sorting algorithms). Capturing these dependencies is critical for identifying students' knowledge gaps and enabling targeted intervention for personalized learning. This is especially challenging in large-scale courses, where instructors cannot feasibly diagnose individual misunderstanding or determine which concepts need reinforcement. While knowledge graphs offer a natural representation for capturing these conceptual relationships at scale, existing approaches are either surface-level (focusing on course-level concepts like "Algorithms" or logistical relationships such as course enrollment), or disregard the rich pedagogical signals embedded in instructional materials. We propose InstructKG, a framework for automatically constructing instructor-aligned knowledge graphs that capture a course's intended learning progression. Given a course's lecture materials (slides, notes, etc.), InstructKG extracts significant concepts as nodes and infers learning dependencies as directed edges (e.g., "part-of" or "depends-on" relationships). The framework synergizes the rich temporal and semantic signals unique to educational materials (e.g., "recursion" is taught before "mergesort"; "recursion" is mentioned in the definition of "merge sort") with the generalizability of large language models. Through experiments on real-world, diverse lecture materials across multiple courses and human-based evaluation, we demonstrate that InstructKG captures rich, instructor-aligned learning progressions.

The continuous expansion of digital learning environments has catalyzed the demand for intelligent systems capable of providing personalized educational content. While current exercise recommendation frameworks have made significant strides, they frequently encounter obstacles regarding the long-tailed distribution of student engagement and the failure to adapt to idiosyncratic learning trajectories. We present LiveGraph, a novel active-structure neural re-ranking framework designed to overcome these limitations. Our approach utilizes a graph-based representation enhancement strategy to bridge the information gap between active and inactive students while integrating a dynamic re-ranking mechanism to foster content diversity. By prioritizing the structural relationships within learning histories, the proposed model effectively balances recommendation precision with pedagogical variety. Comprehensive experimental evaluations conducted on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that LiveGraph surpasses contemporary baselines in both predictive accuracy and the breadth of exercise diversity.

Peer learning, where learners teach and learn from each other, is foundational to educational practice. A novel phenomenon has emerged: AI agents forming communities where they share skills, discoveries, and collaboratively discuss knowledge. This paper presents an educational data mining analysis of Moltbook, a large-scale community where over 2.4 million AI agents engage in discourse that structurally resembles peer learning. Analyzing 28,683 posts (after filtering automated spam) and 138 comment threads with statistical and qualitative methods, we identify discourse patterns consistent with peer learning behaviors: agents share skills they built (74K comments on a skill tutorial), report discoveries, and engage in collaborative problem-solving. Qualitative comment analysis reveals a taxonomy of response patterns: validation (22%), knowledge extension (18%), application (12%), and metacognitive reflection (7%), coded by two independent raters (Cohen's $κ= 0.78$). We characterize how these AI discourse patterns differ from human peer learning: (1) statements outperform questions with an 11.4:1 ratio ($χ^2 = 847.3$, $p < .001$); (2) procedural content receives significantly higher engagement than other content (Kruskal-Wallis $H = 312.7$, $p < .001$); (3) extreme participation inequality (Gini = 0.91 for comments) reveals non-human behavioral signatures. We propose six empirically grounded hypotheses for educational AI design. Crucially, we distinguish between surface-level discourse patterns and underlying cognitive processes: whether agents "learn" in any meaningful sense remains an open question. Our work provides the first empirical characterization of peer-learning-like discourse among AI agents, contributing to EDM's understanding of AI-populated educational environments.