Educational Data Mining

Asynchronous online learning offers temporal flexibility at a structural cost: learning communities tend to fragment rather than cohere. $β_0$, the number of disconnected behavioral clusters from Zigzag Persistent Homology, serves as a cohort-level indicator of this structure. Two questions remained unverified at scale: (1) does apparent $β_0$ convergence reflect genuine behavioral alignment or learner dropout? and (2) do assessment deadlines produce reproducible fragmentation-convergence cycles? We address both across all 22 OULAD courses (N > 22,000; 857 week-pairs). Changes in $β_0$ strongly co-vary with active learner changes (pooled r = 0.387; median per-course r_delta = 0.459, 20/22 courses), identifying $β_0$ as a participation-sensitive indicator: $β_0$ and active learner counts co-respond to deadline events rather than one causing the other. Deadlines produced fragmentation in 82.6% of assessments and the full Fragment First, Converge Later (FFCL) cycle in 60.2%. 3-phase analysis confirmed structural fragmentation as the dominant long-term trajectory (90.9% of courses), moderated by curriculum structure. These findings establish $β_0$ as a participation-sensitive structural indicator with direct implications for AI-augmented learning analytics design.

Real-time classroom polling is now routine, yet the data it produces is usually read narrowly, as a correctness score or a headcount. Such readings say little about what a poll is doing within a lecture or how it shapes engagement. This is particularly relevant for short-response formats such as True/False, where the same question format can be used to test recall, check comprehension, or direct students' attention to a deliberately misleading statement. This study asks whether a poll's answer and instructional function can be determined by reading it against its lecture transcript, what cognitive levels of Bloom's taxonomy and instructional-function clusters the corpus contains, and how student engagement relates to answering correctly. We analyse a naturalistic corpus of 47 live sessions over 39 days, comprising 604 poll questions and 340,668 responses from 2,807 learners, most items True/False, read against time-aligned lecture transcripts and attendance. Reading each poll in context proves essential: the answer to 89% of polls is locatable in the lecture, and a recurring attention-checking device is visible only through context. Questioning is overwhelmingly lower-order and falls into seven instructional functions, and a poll's response follows its function rather than its wording. Engagement is broad but concentrated, and the class majority answers correctly 88.5% of the time, though a small set of high-consensus yet incorrect answers cannot be detected by agreement alone. An independent survey of 579 students agrees on what the polls are and on their participation, but reveals a gap between perception and reality: students cannot judge their own correctness, and the polls they find hardest are not those they answer worst.

When a student is stuck, a tutor faces the assistance dilemma: help given too early can hinder productive struggle, while help withheld too long leaves the student in a frustrating, persistent impasse (i.e., wheel spinning). Generative AI tutors increasingly use guardrails restricting answer-giving, yet little is known about how such tutors behave once an impasse persists. We analyze 20,462 student turns from 1,260 authentic sessions with a guided LLM chemistry tutor, identifying 6,630 impasse turns of three major types: conceptual errors, expressed uncertainty, or help-seeking. We then used these impasses to simulate three tutoring conditions to study variation in AI tutor guidance through impasses: baseline, no-direct-answer, and guided tutor. For a sample of 150 impasses, prompt specificity changed pedagogy: a baseline tutor provided the answer directly in 50.7% of responses, a no-direct-answer tutor asked a follow-up question every time, and the guided tutor responded in a wide variety of ways depending on the context. We then analyzed impasse trajectories in authentic interactions, finding that each additional impasse turn lowered the odds of next-turn recovery by 12.7% (AOR = 0.873, p < .001), and early dropouts were caught in recursive concept elicitation before reaching execution. The benefit of questioning decayed as impasses persisted (scripted question x depth AOR = 0.78; follow-up x depth AOR = 0.83), whereas addressing the student's error grew more beneficial (AOR = 1.14); after a failed scripted question, repeating it was followed by recovery in 28.1% of cases, compared with 39.8% when the tutor addressed the error instead. For learning analytics, these findings identify impasse depth and type as observable, turn-level dialogue signals that analytics can use to trigger graduated, state-sensitive assistance in real time.

Generative AI has changed how students produce writing assignments. The final artifact is no longer sufficient to understand the process through which it was produced. We introduce DraftTrace, a writing environment that jointly captures three complementary views of writing: the final product, the writing process and interactions with an integrated AI-assistant. DraftTrace reconstructs how a document develops over time and organizes these signals into submission, longitudinal, and class-level analytics for instructors. We deployed DraftTrace in a graduate NLP course with 81 students and compared their sessions with LLM-generated responses entered by automated tools and with copy-typed responses. While product measures distinguish differences in text formulation, process measures distinguish differences in how text is entered. Considering both views together helps characterize cases such as copy-typing. Interaction traces show that students use the assistant differently across stages of writing: to clarify the question at an early stage and to verify answers at a later stage. A preliminary instructor survey highlights the importance of multi-view writing analytics and their interpretability.

Large language models have allowed the rapid deployment of pedagogical annotations corresponding to constructs of interest, allowing a natural language interface for generating classifications on a conversational dataset. However due to the opaque nature of LLM reasoning, we have no verifiable, mechanistic insight into why a model chose a label for an utterance. We introduce the EduBehaviors framework, an interpretable, scalable approach to annotating educational data that uses LLMs to measure repeated observable behaviors relevant to many constructs of interest and then learns a classifier for the construct based on these observable behaviors. We evaluate the framework on the TalkMoves dataset, predicting the Teacher TalkMoves labels. Our best configuration results in a macro-F1 of 0.673 and 0.688 Cohen's kappa, proving competitive with direct prompting approaches. In addition, we release EduBehaviors Toolkit, two tools allowing researchers to operationalize the EduBehaviors framework in their own data.

Despite the widely recognized potential of AI in education, most prior work has focused on individualized student assistance. In contrast, the majority of educational practice worldwide still takes place in collective classroom settings. To enable researchers to study AI assistance in collective teaching, we introduce Edustories, a dataset of 1,492 teacher-written case studies describing real elementary and high-school classroom situations involving challenging student behavior, pedagogical interventions, and their outcomes. Among many other applications, Edustories enables evaluating LLMs' ability to predict the success of teacher interventions, crucial for providing practicing teachers with useful feedback. Comparing the latest models from four language-model families against expert assessments, we find that current models fall short of human expertise in predicting classroom outcomes; the strongest models reach 58% accuracy compared to 64% of human experts. This gap highlights both the limitations and the emerging potential of AI as assistants for practicing teachers.

Q-matrices play a central role in cognitive diagnosis within educational data mining (EDM), specifying which latent skills each assessment item requires. Data-driven Q-matrix estimation remains challenging when assessments involve many correlated skills and when real response patterns depart from idealized generative assumptions. We introduce a novel quantum sparse autoencoder (QSAE) for Q-matrix estimation, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first application of quantum machine learning (QML) to cognitive diagnosis. Overall, the QSAE embeds each student's binary response vector into a quantum circuit using an encoder, compresses it into a sparse latent representation, and maps that representation to the Q-matrix. We benchmark the QSAE against a classical autoencoder (CAE) across 60 simulated datasets and 9 real-world assessment datasets. The results reveal complementary strengths. Although the CAE partially achieves higher average accuracy under several simulation conditions, the QSAE is substantially more stable across replications, exhibiting lower variance in 49 of the 60 conditions. Moreover, on real assessment data, the QSAE outperforms the CAE on 6 of the 9 datasets. These findings suggest that the principal advancement of QML in this setting is not universal accuracy improvement, but enhanced robustness and capability to explore latent-structure complexity in real datasets.

Solving problems through repeated attempts is a sequential modeling task: at each step, the solver receives feedback and decides how to revise their solutions. Predicting whether performance improves, plateaus, or regresses across attempts is central to understanding any iterative problem-solving process in both human learners and autonomous agents. Beyond outcomes, modeling what errors persist and how strategies shift across attempts provides deeper insight into the mechanics of sequential learning. Studying these dynamics requires observing many solvers as they attempt, receive feedback, and revise. Programming courses with automated grading provide this setting, as students iteratively submit code to test suites and receive feedback on every attempt. We therefore curate CodeInsight, a large-scale dataset of over 3 million submissions from 3,286 undergraduates across 2 introductory C++ courses in 2 academic years, with test-case-level outcomes, timestamps, and source code. On this dataset, we build a benchmark that evaluates models spanning parametric, sequential, and generative traditions under a shared calibration-and-scoring protocol, including a Recurrent State Space Model (RSSM) adapted to track solver characteristics through discrete latent variables and an LLM-based predictor that generates explicit solutions. The adapted RSSM achieves the strongest predictive accuracy on three of the four courses. The LLM predictor is less accurate but produces full submissions at each attempt, enabling direct analysis of failure modes. We find that the model's coding proficiency is inversely related to predictive performance in this setting, with the LLM better understood as a generative solver conditioned on context rather than a faithful predictor of solver behavior. We publicly release our code and the dataset on request to facilitate future research.

Existing predictive models in learning analytics often treat student academic history as a simple sequence, overlooking the concurrent nature of courses taken within a semester. This simplification can lead to inaccurate performance predictions, particularly for students with heavy or challenging course loads. This paper introduces a TRansformer for Academic Course-grade Estimation (TRACE) that addresses this limitation by jointly predicting both the set of courses a student will take and their corresponding grades for an upcoming semester. Our approach encodes courses on a per-semester basis to capture the effects of course concurrency and utilizes a novel loss function combining course-set prediction with grade prediction. We demonstrate that predicting courses taken in addition to the grades in those courses leads to significant improvements in prediction quality. Trained on ten years of institutional data, our joint prediction model reduces mean absolute error by nearly 50% compared to an identical architecture that predicts grades alone. The model also outperforms traditional LSTM-based sequential models, as well as graph neural network-based approaches, and offers natural ways to incorporate student attribute data. This work demonstrates the utility of modern neural architectures for creating interpretable models that can be adapted to new institutions via retraining and recalibration, as well as the importance of key techniques, such as predicting courses taken during training. We discuss how this model could be incorporated into early detection systems at institutions of higher education.

Group discussion-based teaching is widely used to foster collaborative learning, yet teachers in physical classrooms often struggle to simultaneously monitor multiple groups and quickly diagnose a target group before intervening. Existing visual analytics tools primarily support post-hoc analysis on desktop, providing limited support for in-situ walk-around teaching. To address this gap, we present MobileGroupVis, a mobile visual analytics system for in-situ analysis of classroom group discussions. MobileGroupVis integrates multi-group monitoring, single-group diagnosis, and instructional intervention into a concise analytical workflow tailored for small-screen touch interaction. The system is powered by a lightweight streaming analysis pipeline that converts group audio into structured discussion data and further extracts interaction patterns, topic progression, and topic deviation through a dialogue analysis module. To enable both glanceable overview and traceable diagnosis, we design six coordinated views, including a compact glyph that visually encodes word count, interaction intensity, and topic deviation for efficient cross-group comparison and anomaly localization, along with detailed views for opinion evolution, interaction dynamics, topic coverage, and dialogue records. We evaluate MobileGroupVis through two case studies and expert interviews. The results provide preliminary evidence that MobileGroupVis supports teachers in understanding discussion processes, identifying groups in need of attention, and facilitating in-class intervention.

SetEasy optimizes classroom engagement in fixed seating grids. It fuses multimodal sensing (wristband physiology, 4K video, environmental data) and trains a v-Gage model grounded in a revised ISEQ. Each week, two-week engagement forecasts are mapped to a student-seat utility matrix, and CP-SAT generates seating plans under visual-access and social-dynamics constraints. In a four-week deployment (23 students, 331 classes), v-Gage converged across affective, behavioral, cognitive, and overall dimensions, cutting RMSE from 0.75 to 0.53. Optimization raised mean engagement from 0.30 to 0.70, with over two-thirds of seats reaching high engagement and back-row low-activity patterns markedly reduced. These results show that, without hardware changes, interpretable, data-driven seating strategies can substantially enhance engagement. The multimodal "assessment + optimization" paradigm offers a transferable, sustainable path to culturally responsive, differentiated spatial design amid global homogenization.

The transition from block-based to text-based programming requires learners to convert visible program structures into abstract textual expressions, which may create a cognitive gap between understanding computational concepts and expressing them in Python syntax. To support this transition, we designed and implemented BlockPython. The platform centers on bidirectional translation between blocks and Python and guides learners through four stages: Task Decomposition, Block-Based Practice, Code Challenge, and Extended Interaction. Across these stages, learners progressively establish connections among program structure, runtime behavior, and textual code. During learning, the platform continuously collects process evidence, including block artifacts, code versions, run outcomes, use of support, and dialogue. Deterministic diagnosis, program visualization, and the learning assistant use this evidence to identify different difficulties in computational understanding and Python expression. The rule-based system is responsible for program execution, objective evaluation, and stage control, while the learning assistant uses verified evidence to provide explanations, prompts, and guiding questions. This report describes the design rationale, learning workflow, and process-aware support mechanisms of BlockPython and provides a system-design reference for supporting the transition from block-based to text-based programming and for analyzing learning processes.

Prerequisite relation learning is central to adaptive instruction, yet existing methods often formulate it as conventional link prediction, limiting their ability to adaptively integrate complementary educational evidence for individual candidate pairs and to discourage contradictory reverse predictions. We propose ProPRL, a Property-aware Prerequisite Relation Learning framework. ProPRL first learns complementary concept representations from a concept-resource hypergraph and a directed learning-behavior graph, where direction-preserving personalized propagation aggregates multi-hop behavioral evidence. It then employs a Pair-conditioned Gate to adaptively weight and fuse the two views for each candidate ordered concept pair. Finally, an \textit{Irreversibility Constraint} introduces an anti-symmetry regularizer that penalizes simultaneously high confidence in both directions of the same concept pair. Experiments on multiple real-world educational datasets show that ProPRL achieves state-of-the-art performance on prerequisite relation learning.

Monitoring cognitive load during online learning could help instructors identify content that learners find difficult, but remote settings remove the visual cues that support this judgement in a classroom. We study whether a single-channel, consumer-grade EEG device (the NeuroSky MindWave Mobile 2) can distinguish easy from difficult educational-video content, using the publicly available dataset of Wang et al. [24] (ten learners, one excluded for excessive noise, leaving nine). We implement a hybrid CNN+LSTM+Attention model that combines the raw waveform with band-power features. In a within-subject setting, the model reaches up to 78.5% accuracy, compared with 55% for conventional feature-based classifiers; regularization (dropout and L2) closes the large gap between training and validation accuracy that we observe without it, keeping validation accuracy stable at roughly 68-73%. We are deliberately cautious about these numbers: with only nine subjects, within-subject evaluation is optimistic, and we argue that subject-independent evaluation -- in which no learner appears in both training and test data -- should be the standard for this task. To that end we release a reproducible evaluation pipeline. We frame the work as a feasibility study rather than a deployable system, and pair it with an open, notebook-based tool that records EEG, runs inference, and visualizes estimated cognitive load as a heatmap over the video timeline to help educators locate potentially challenging segments.

Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems. Prior research treats performance prediction, calibration error calculation, and variance decomposition as separate pipelines, preventing unified interpretation. I propose the Unified Behavioral Prediction and Calibration Analysis Pipeline (UBP-CAP), an integrated framework processing student pre-execution behavioral telemetry through three linked modules: (1) a LightGBM classifier with SHAP for binary correctness prediction, (2) formal calibration metrics (ECE, MCE, and Brier score decomposition) to evaluate metacognitive alignment, and (3) a crossed Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Model (GLMM) for decomposing calibration deviations. I introduce the Predictive-Explanatory Divergence Index (PEDI), which quantifies structural divergence between predictive and explanatory feature profiles. Evaluated on 1,195 interaction records (27 students, 45 tasks), Logistic Regression achieves AUC-ROC = 0.903, outperforming LightGBM (0.878). Student naive ECE (0.109) significantly exceeds model ECE (0.068), confirming systematic miscalibration. The crossed GLMM yields ICCStudent = 0.123, showing calibration is situational rather than dispositional. PEDIcos = 0.081 (p = 0.327) indicates structural alignment between prediction and explanation on shared behavioral features.

Standardized examinations are typically treated as uniform syllabus coverage problems. We argue they are better understood as adversarial systems with stable latent cognitive structures diverging systematically from official syllabi. We introduce LearnOpt, which recovers this structure from historical question papers and generates personalized, time-bounded study plans. Applied to nine years of NEET questions (2016-2024, n=1,496), LearnOpt builds an exam knowledge graph from LLM-tagged questions, extracts a five-category latent skill distribution, and formulates study planning as a knapsack-variant optimization over prerequisite-aware subgraphs with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing. Central finding: NEET's latent skill distribution is stable within a syllabus regime (consecutive-year KL divergence 0.004-0.032 for 2016-2021, non-significant under permutation testing) but shifts significantly with NCERT's 2023 syllabus rationalization: pooling 2016-2021 (n=1,072) vs 2023-2024 (n=392) gives KL=0.040 (p=0.0005), with Elimination/Negation questions rising from ~20-29% to ~31-35%. Latent structure, while not permanently stationary, is piecewise stable, with shifts detectable and attributable to curricular events. Within either regime, subject predicts skill profile more strongly than year. An optimization evaluation, using one real and two synthetic mastery profiles, shows the skill-weighted objective produces a modest but real reordering of recommended topics over a mastery-conditioned frequency baseline. Applying the pipeline to JEE Advanced reveals a profile dominated by Multi-concept Integration (80.9% vs. 33.3% for NEET), with a JEE-vs-NEET divergence (KL=0.505) exceeding NEET's largest cross-subject divergence: exam tier shapes latent cognitive structure more than subject, which shapes it more than time within a regime. Code, knowledge graph, and annotated dataset are released publicly.

This study investigates the application of machine learning models to predict exam outcomes using physiological data collected during examination sessions. Physiological stress indicators, including electrodermal activity, heart rate, and skin temperature, were analyzed to uncover their association with academic performance. A variety of machine learning approaches were employed, ranging from standard models like logistic regression, random forest, and support vector machines to more advanced architectures, including transformers, long short-term memory (LSTM), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models. This diversity aimed to capture the complex interactions within the data effectively. A key focus was assessing the adaptability of transformers in processing numerical data and evaluating their performance in this novel context. Standard performance metrics, such as accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score, were used to compare model efficacy. The experimental results demonstrate that while deep learning models generally excel at capturing complex relationships in physiological data, simpler models like random forests can sometimes achieve superior performance while offering computational efficiency and interpretability. Furthermore, transformers demonstrated notable versatility, showcasing performances comparable to those of the LSTM and GRU models. This research underscores the importance of experimenting with a broad class of models that align with the objectives of the problem at hand, balancing precision, efficiency, and interpretability. By elucidating the relationships between physiological signals and academic performance, this study contributes to understanding stressors affecting students' mental health. It further promotes leveraging physiological data to enhance student well-being and academic outcomes.

This study explores privacy-preserving machine learning (PPML) techniques using the PySyft platform to enable collaborative prediction of student retention between institutions. We developed a remote data science (RDS) framework with a semi-air-gapped architecture consisting of high-side and low-side servers, allowing researchers from three universities to build predictive models on sensitive student data without direct data access. Using historical data from a small private university (N=720), we evaluated three synthetic data generation approaches and validated the framework through inter-institutional collaboration. The results demonstrate consistent classification performance across institutions (Macro F1: 0.690--0.695) while maintaining strict Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) compliance. We also propose Data-Type-Aware Templates, a novel synthetic data method that prioritizes privacy over distributional fidelity. Our findings confirm that RDS-based PPML is technically feasible for educational settings and offers a practical alternative to federated learning for small-scale inter-institutional collaborations. The code is available at https://github.com/jtfields/NAIRR240195-Privacy-Preserving-Machine-Learning.

Large online courses generate thousands of student questions directed at conversational AI teaching assistants, yet these interaction logs remain largely untapped as diagnostic signals. We present a pipeline that maps student questions from a conversational AI teaching assistant to curriculum topics using a few-shot text classifier, grounded in a GPT-4-extracted prerequisite knowledge graph of course concepts. Evaluated on 1,340 question events from 164 students in a graduate-level AI course, our classifier achieves 80.0% accuracy across 43 labels (42 curriculum topics plus an "unknown" abstention class). Topic-level question volume correlates significantly with student self-reported difficulty from an independent mid-semester survey (rho = 0.491, p = 0.008, n = 28 topics), providing convergent evidence that the classified question stream reflects genuine topic difficulty. These results demonstrate that conversational AI interaction logs, mapped onto curriculum structure, carry actionable signals about topic-level knowledge gaps and provide instructors with a curriculum-grounded view of which topics warrant attention.

Different predictors often excel on different inputs, so picking the best one per instance promises higher accuracy than committing to a single model. In practice, selectors trained from logged data routinely fail to beat the strongest single predictor. Three causes typically go unseparated before more tuning is applied: a mismatched learner, a state that does not predict which model wins, or buffer-to-deployment label shift. A three-stage diagnostic rules them out on a shared buffer. Stage1 estimates a local ceiling on oracle recovery from $k$-NN label consistency. Stage2 asks whether paired BC and offline-RL learners (BC, DQN, and CQL across penalty weights) reach that ceiling. Stage~3 ablates the selector state to test whether richer features would raise it. The combined verdict points to the most promising next step: tuning the learner, redesigning the state, or collecting new data. We apply it to selecting among five dropout-prediction models on edX clickstream data. Across 16 windows, the oracle beats the strongest single base model by 9.7 accuracy points on average, yet BC, DQN, and CQL land in the same test-accuracy band below it (robust to a tenfold buffer sweep and $N{=}2{,}000$ held-out examples). The bottleneck is local representational ambiguity: CQL closes the imitation gap without a deployment gain (not conservatism), regret clusters tightly across learners (not tie-breaking), and the three learners converge on test accuracy (not shift). The next iteration should change the state or collect new data, not tune the offline learner further.

Early detection of at-risk students and timely academic intervention pose major challenges in advanced mathematics education, where complex conceptual hierarchies and nonlinear learning trajectories often hold back students' academic performance. This study adopts multimodal data analytics to build a dynamic framework for learning behavior prediction and academic early warning. It constructs a hierarchical knowledge graph ontology, realizes adaptive edge weighting according to problem difficulty and student performance, and combines heterogeneous graph attention with temporal sequence modeling to capture students' evolving knowledge states. Empirical tests on semester-long multimodal datasets prove that this method can accurately identify high-risk students and effectively track error propagation. Targeted interventions greatly improve students' knowledge mastery and reduce academic risks. The results verify that integrating knowledge graph analytics with multimodal temporal modeling can deliver more efficient and personalized learning support for advanced mathematics education.

Educational platforms often predict student performance from prior interactions, but the assessment content itself also varies in linguistic and visual complexity. This paper studies whether lightweight content features extracted from CourseKata chapter-review questions improve prediction of end-of-chapter quiz scores beyond a student's average prior exercise performance. The study combines 2023 CourseKata student response data with chapter-level text features from review-question wording and image features from textbook visuals. Across 4,742 student-chapter observations from 562 class-student IDs, adding content features improves student-grouped five-fold quiz prediction performance by 9.1% relative to a prior-performance baseline. In leave-chapter-out validation, text features reduce prediction error relative to the baseline, while image-containing models have higher error. This paper suggests that a context-aware model adds useful signal about the text and visual features of questions to better predict student quiz performance compared with using past student performance alone.

AI-augmented classrooms generate rich teacher and student feedback before graded outcomes become available, yet these signals can be difficult to translate into timely instructional decisions. We propose an interpretable decision layer: a transparent mechanism that ranks course topics requiring attention without using grades or post-hoc outcome labels. The approach combines three signals: student learning difficulty prevalence, disagreement between learner self-reports and observed difficulties, and unresolved teacher concerns. The output is a ranked set of topic priorities with per-topic decision records explaining each ranking. In one graduate CS course offering ($n=5$ instructor interviews; $n=279$ survey responses), prioritized topics aligned with instructor concerns (top-5 overlap 3/5; Spearman $ρ=0.80$) and student-reported topic difficulty ($ρ=0.46$, $p=.048$). Multi-signal integration also surfaced learners not identified through individual signal sources alone (AUC $=0.96$ vs. $0.91$ for gap prevalence alone). Reflective thinking, help-seeking, and self-efficacy provided additional evidence that student behavioral signals align with learning-related constructs. While preliminary, these findings suggest that transparent coordination mechanisms may help support human-AI co-agency when feedback is incomplete.

Early-warning models built from Learning Management System (LMS) logs aim to predict end-of-course outcomes early enough to enable timely learner support. However, reported "early" performance is often inflated by temporal leakage. This occurs when the pipeline uses information that would not yet be available at the time of prediction. We formalize cutoff-based early outcome prediction under a temporal availability constraint and introduce LEAP (Leakage-Excluded Early-Availability Protocol), which enforces cutoff-first truncation prior to joins and aggregation and audits feature provenance to prevent post-cutoff evidence from entering the benchmark. We instantiate LEAP on the public Open University Learning Analytics Dataset (OULAD) as a multi-step protocol for leakage-controlled evaluation across weekly cutoffs. Using several standard learning methods, we evaluate performance using ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, Brier score, and [email protected]. Results show improving performance as the observation window expands, with a marked gain around week~3; Random Forest performs best at the earliest cutoffs, while Gradient Boosting dominates thereafter. Leakage ablations further show that temporal violations, especially through assessment information, can inflate apparent "early" performance.

Student attrition represents a significant challenge for higher education institutions because it impacts both academic results and financial viability. Machine learning provides an effective solution to identify students who require assistance before they leave their academic programs. The research investigates how machine learning approaches enable institutions to predict student withdrawal and enrollment cancellation through data-driven insights for strategic decisionmaking. The evaluation of models includes Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines (SVM), and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) based on academic performance and demographic data and enrollment records. The results show that logistic regression and linear SVM models produced the highest accuracy which demonstrates ML's capability to detect students at risk.

Accurately identifying student misconceptions is crucial for personalized education but faces three challenges: (1) data scarcity with long-tail distribution, where authentic student reasoning is difficult to synthesize; (2) fuzzy boundaries between error categories with high annotation noise; (3) deployment parado-large models overlook unconventional approaches due to pretraining bias and cannot be deployed on edge, while small models overfit to noise. Unlike traditional methods that increase diversity through large-scale data synthesis, we propose a two-stage knowledge distillation framework that mines high-value samples from existing data. The first stage performs standard distillation to transfer task capabilities. The second stage introduces a dual-layer marginal selection mechanism based on cognitive uncertainty, identifying four types of critical samples based on teacher model uncertainty and confidence differences. For different data subsets, we design difficulty-adaptive mechanism to balance hard/soft label contributions, enabling student models to inherit inter-class relationships from teacher soft labels while distinguishing ambiguous error types. Experiments show that with augmented training on only 10.30% of filtered samples, we achieve MAP@3 of 0.9585 (+17.8%) on the MAP-Charting dataset, and using only a 4B parameter model, we attain 84.38% accuracy on cross-topic tests of middle school algebra misconception benchmarks, significantly outperforming sota LLM (67.73%) and standard fine-tuned 72B models (81.25%). Our code is available at https://github.com/RoschildRui/acl2026_map.

Sustained effort is essential for realizing the benefits of intelligent tutoring systems (ITS), yet many learners disengage or underuse available practice time. We introduce engagement forecasting as a supervised prediction task based on ITS logs, targeting two outcomes central to effort and learning progress: minutes practiced per week and new skills mastered per week. Using interaction log data from 425 middle-school students over a school year, we benchmark fifteen predictors including regressions, decision trees, and neural networks. We show that these feature-based models reduce mean absolute error (MAE) by 22-33% relative to heuristic baselines, including fixed-percentile rules adapted from prior work in other behavioral domains. We find that percentile heuristics systematically overpredict, whereas feature-based models better track student practice trajectories across weeks. To support explainability, we analyze feature importance and ablations, revealing target-specific patterns: effort forecasting is driven mainly by recent activity features, while progress forecasting depends more on learner-state and content difficulty signals. Finally, in a semi-structured user interview case study with eight college tutors, we examine how tutors reasoned about system-generated predictive features when setting goals with students. We find that tutors reasoned differently about effort versus progress goals in ways that mirror our pattern analysis. Together, these results establish a reproducible benchmark for forecasting weekly effort and learning progress in ITS. By making patterns of sustained effort and progress visible at a weekly timescale, engagement forecasting offers a foundation for supporting tutor-learner goal setting and timely instructional decisions.

Middle school is a key window for building core academic skills and the learning routines students carry into later grades, yet many students still fall behind because help is often limited and comes too late, after they have already been stuck for a while. Learning Management Systems (LMSs) are now standard infrastructure for distributing materials, collecting work, assessing students' tasks, and recording grades, but in most deployments they still behave more like workflow tools than instructional supports. The result is the usual bottleneck: students keep practicing through confusion, teachers triage questions, and feedback that could have corrected the misunderstanding arrives after the misconception has already hardened. To address this gap, we propose an AI-integrated LMS for middle school instruction, paired with a longitudinal study design to test whether sustained, bounded AI support changes outcomes through high school and into post-high school pathways. The proposed platform adds policy-gated AI assistance to everyday coursework, delivering formative feedback and hinting, recommending spaced review and adaptive practice based on mastery, and providing teacher-facing dashboards that summarize misconception patterns and flag sustained struggle. Because the platform is intended for minors, the design is privacy-first, using data minimization, role-based access control, age-appropriate response constraints, and auditable logs of AI interactions. Beyond short-term performance, the evaluation plan links fine-grained learning traces (attempts, revisions, help-seeking, and pacing) to institutional outcomes where feasible, so we can separate tool adoption effects from longer-run changes in learning trajectories.

This study presents a systematic approach to identifying and characterizing student misconceptions in online learning environments through a novel combination of quantitative performance analysis and large language model (LLM) assessment. We analyzed data from 9 course periods across 5 online biomedical science courses, encompassing 3,802 medical student enrollments. Using data from 40-50 topic-focused quizzes per course, we developed a two-stage methodology. First, we identified challenging central topics using quiz-level performance metrics. Second, we employed LLMs to characterize the underlying misconceptions in these high-priority areas. By examining student performance on first attempts across primarily multiple-choice questions (MCQs), we identified consistently challenging topics that were also central to course objectives. We then leveraged recent advances in generative AI to analyze three distinct data sources in combination: quiz question content, student response patterns, and lecture transcripts. This approach revealed actionable insights about student misconceptions that were not apparent from performance data alone. The quality of the LLM-identified misconceptions was rated as excellent by subject matter experts. We also conducted teacher interviews to assess the perceived utility of our topic identification method. Faculty found that data-driven identification of challenging topics was valuable and corroborated their own classroom observations. This methodology provides a scalable approach to characterizing student difficulties in learning environments where quizzes are used. Our findings demonstrate the potential for targeted and potentially personalized interventions in future course iterations, with clear pathways for measuring intervention effectiveness through follow-up quiz performance.

As Generative AI (GenAI) becomes integral to education, fostering GenAI literacy is critical. However, current assessments largely rely on self-reported scales, lacking insights into how literacy manifests in actual learning processes. This study leverages Learning Analytics (LA) to bridge this gap. We collected interaction logs from 162 university students engaged in a GenAI-assisted abstract writing task. Using Epistemic Network Analysis (ENA), we modeled and compared the questioning strategies of students with varying GenAI literacy levels. Preliminary results reveal distinct interaction signatures: high-literacy students engage in iterative refinement and strategic questioning, while low-literacy students rely on direct generation commands. This work contributes to the workshop by demonstrating how process data can characterize GenAI literacy, paving the way for data-driven literacy assessment and real-time interventions.