Expected Utility

Learning from human feedback has become a central paradigm for training modern AI systems, where models of human utility are used as reward models in policy learning. Existing methods typically assume a \emph{universal utility} function shared across a population and treat disagreement between annotators as stochastic variation. While suitable for objective tasks, this assumption breaks down in subjective domains where preferences vary systematically across individuals. We study the problem of subjective preference learning, in which observed choices arise from heterogeneous but internally consistent utility functions. Drawing upon rational choice theory, RCT \parencite{tversky1981framing}, we introduce \emph{individuated utility} functions conditioned on both the individual and their decision context, and propose a novel multi-stage architecture for estimating them from multi-modal data. We evaluate our framework on a newly collected dataset of more than $575{,}000$ pairwise aesthetic judgments from $2{,}398$ participants comparing automotive wheel designs. Our experiments show that individuated utility models substantially outperform universal utility models including foundation model baselines. Our results demonstrate that disagreement reflects meaningful preference heterogeneity rather than annotation noise. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of collecting annotator attributes and learning individuated utility functions, enabling reward models that explicitly account for whose preferences they represent and faithfully capture human decision diversity.

This work considers multi-agent coordination with arbitrary information networks among the agents using a game-theoretic approach. A system designer aims to assign local utility functions to the agents to guide their actions toward a desired system objective. The performance of the assigned local utilities is measured by the well known pure price of anarchy (pPoA) metric that equals the ratio of the system objective at the worst pure Nash equilibrium of the corresponding game to the optimal system objective. Our aim is to derive the utility functions which optimize the pPoA-based performance guarantees for any given information network and system objective. We develop a linear program that derives the optimal pPoA for any arbitrary information network and arbitrary system objective. Our work is the first to solve optimal utility design for arbitrary networks; our techniques generalize previous approaches which considered only the full-information setting. For supermodular objective functions, we prove that counterintuitively, a fully communication-denied utility design is optimal irrespective of the original information network. For submodular system objectives, an exhaustive numerical analysis suggests that the optimal utility design is robust to communication failures even for this case. When the system objective is weighted maximum coverage, the marginal contribution utility design provably optimizes the pPoA for a wide variety of information networks of interest.

Objective Prediction models are commonly trained using objectives such as Bernoulli negative log-likelihood (NLL), although downstream clinical decisions may depend on specific risk thresholds. We introduce Smooth Net Benefit ($\sigma$NB), a differentiable approximation of Net Benefit designed to align model training with threshold-specific clinical utility. Materials and Methods We evaluated $\sigma$NB as a training objective for logistic regression, generalized additive models (GAMs), and XGBoost with three Hessian implementations. Experiments used the Framingham cardiovascular risk dataset and 44 TabZilla datasets comprising 72 dataset-threshold combinations. Results $\sigma$NB training did not consistently improve Net Benefit in Framingham. Across the TabZilla benchmark, mean standardized Net Benefit for logistic regression increased from 0.5669 with NLL to 0.5765 with $\sigma$NB (mean difference 0.0096, 95% CI -0.0001 to 0.0193). For GAMs, mean standardized Net Benefit decreased from 0.5921 to 0.5625 (mean difference -0.0296, 95% CI -0.0721 to 0.0129). For XGBoost, NLL achieved 0.6745 compared with 0.6723--0.6735 across $\sigma$NB implementations. In logistic regression, $\sigma$NB gains were positively associated with the performance advantage of XGBoost over NLL-trained logistic regression. Discussion The effect of $\sigma$NB was context dependent, with modest gains concentrated in logistic regression and little benefit for more flexible model classes. This suggests that decision-focused optimization may be most useful when limited model flexibility leaves greater scope for improvement. Conclusion Our results do not support $\sigma$NB as a general replacement for NLL training, but support further investigation of decision-focused objectives in settings where conventional likelihood-based training may not adequately capture decision-relevant structure.

We present tensor network representations for discrete maximum entropy distributions under expectation constraints. To this end, we introduce Computation-Activation Networks (CompActNets), a tensor network architecture that subsumes exponential families. By leveraging the geometry of the convex polytope of realizable expectation vectors, we represent any maximum entropy distribution in the same architecture. We exploit the fact that proper faces of this polytope correspond to the boundary closure of exponential families, which restricts the distribution's support. We then derive explicit representations for the support within the CompActNet architecture. The proposed framework suggests tensor network ranks as complexity measures for faces. Finally, a case study on Boolean statistics links the geometry of 0/1-polytopes directly to propositional formulas.

Time is of the essence when dealing with multiple reward signals and non-linear utility. In this paper we argue that the current main approaches in multi-objective RL (SER and ESR), and successor features, are insufficient. While each approach deals with non-linear effects on user utility on different timescales, none of them take into account that different effects happening on different timescales can happen within the same decision problem. We motivate that this can indeed be the case by an example, both intuitively and numerically, leading to a new perspective, and a significant and non-trivial gap in the literature.

High-resolution images and long videos provide vision-language models with rich context for multimodal reasoning and fine-grained perception, but the resulting long visual token sequences make large language model-side computation and memory costly. Existing visual token reducers often operate at prescribed rates, while recent methods adapt token counts across inputs using method-specific learned thresholds or importance predictors. We introduce RUTA, a principled Rate-Utility Token Allocation method that performs pre-LLM reduction by jointly learning which tokens to retain and how many to allocate to each image-query pair. RUTA constructs query-conditioned candidate tokens and predicts a retention probability for each candidate. During training, these probabilities parameterize independent Bernoulli gates, while their sum provides a differentiable training-time estimate of the token count for each pair. Retained tokens serve as anchors that aggregate information from non-retained tokens according to semantic affinity and spatial proximity. RUTA is optimized with a penalized rate-utility objective that balances downstream task loss against expected token usage. Averaged across five benchmarks and measured relative to each backbone's full-token baseline, RUTA uses only $2.0\%$ and $4.2\%$ of visual tokens while preserving $88.2\%$ and $94.4\%$ of task performance on LLaVA-NeXT-7B and Qwen3-VL-8B, respectively.

Automatic modulation classification research has largely emphasized representation accuracy, but a cognitive receiver must also decide when heterogeneous evidence justifies overriding a trusted default prediction. We study this post-inference problem through cross-fitted residual utility and a primary-preserving cognitive decision policy. A structured KAN-Fourier classifier supplies the default probability, while neural and non-neural candidates provide observable evidence. Candidate-specific residual utility is learned from train-split out-of-fold predictions, and a disjoint validation split freezes action thresholds, approved transitions, conditional routes, and a unified risk mask before held-out evaluation. On RMLA, RMLB, and HISAR, the complete system improves overall accuracy from 63.632% to 66.332%, 65.161% to 66.168%, and 77.769% to 79.867%, respectively. Controlled comparisons show that the isolated utility target does not uniformly dominate alternative out-of-fold meta-learners; the consistent gain comes from the complete evidence-and-action policy. Paired bootstrap and Holm-corrected McNemar analyses support the controlled gains. A frozen-policy stress test under carrier-frequency offset, I/Q imbalance, and synthetic Rayleigh/Rician fading yields positive gains in all 11 conditions, with every paired 95% confidence interval above zero.

This paper proposes a causal independence principle for value -- the value Causal Markov Condition (v-CMC) -- and develops the conceptual and mathematical foundations of a "causal value theory" linking causality and utility. After motivating a local formulation of the v-CMC, we introduce a probability-value duality that translates standard causal-inference results into the value setting. In particular, we formulate local, global, and decomposition versions of the v-CMC and prove their equivalence. We also define v-separation and show that it is sound and complete for conditional value independence. Furthermore, we derive a Bellman-type recursion as a special case of the v-CMC, thereby generalizing standard Bellman recursion from linear chains to causal DAGs. Finally, we show how the v-CMC supports modular transfer and updating of utility information across causal contexts and develop algorithms for causally structured utility elicitation and canonical influence-diagram construction.

Evaluating decisions made under uncertainty is hard when labeled outcomes are scarce, costly, or confounded with luck. We treat subjective expected utility (SEU) maximization as a stated standard and define a graded measure -- SEU sensitivity -- of an agent's conformity to it. The vehicle is a softmax choice model with a sensitivity parameter $α$ on SEU-valued alternatives; the contribution is a sequence of identifiability results for $α$ and for belief and utility parameters $(β, δ)$, validated in Stan via prior predictive checks, parameter recovery, and simulation-based calibration (SBC), with finite-sample caveats intact. In the uncertain-choice-only model $m_0$, $α$ is identifiable given the expected-utility vector $η$ and sharply recovered, while $(β, δ)$ are only weakly informed: the posterior barely contracts and concentrates on a $β$-$δ$ trade-off. In the extended model $m_1$, $δ$ becomes identifiable in principle via a $β$-free risky block, but its practical recovery gain at realistic sample sizes is negligible (matched-count CI-width reduction under 1%), and that block yields no detected $α$-precision gain at matched choice count. These are two distinct phenomena: for $δ$, identifiability does not imply precise estimability at realistic $n$; for $α$, identifiability is silent about what governs finite-$n$ precision. Marginal SBC passes for both models even where the joint posterior is weakly informed -- a demarcation we make precise. A two-by-two application (GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet, each on insurance-claims triage and Ellsberg-style urns, with sampling temperature as the lever) runs end-to-end on real LLM choice data, detecting a structured comparative $α$ effect in two of four cells.

Optimizing nonlinear preferences in multi-objective reinforcement learning (MORL) is essential for capturing complex trade-offs like risk aversion or fairness. However, such non-linearity has historically bifurcated nonlinear MORL objectives into two distinct paradigms: Scalarized Expected Return (SER) and Expected Scalarized Return (ESR). While SER requires global-level optimization and ESR requires non-Markovian policies, leading to fragmented optimization strategies, we bridge this divide through the Aggregation-Expectation-Transformation (AET) framework. By unifying both criteria through a tripartite decomposition of scalarization, AET provides a principled foundation for general nonlinear MORL. Building on this framework, we propose AETDICE, a tractable offline RL algorithm for AET objectives. By utilizing DICE-style density-ratio estimation in an augmented state space, AETDICE enables sample-based optimization from static datasets. Our framework resolves long-standing barriers and captures respective trade-offs induced by AET framework, which existing methods fail to address.

I discuss conditions under which maximizing a proxy utility function is harmful and suggest this poses problems for applying decision theory.

In this paper, we generalize the concept of Voronoi regions, define agent utility as the integral of a utility density over the corresponding Voronoi region, derive gradients of the utility, and illustrate the approach in a two-team example from soccer. The generalization of Voronoi regions is in the form of so-called Cost-Induced Voronoi (CIV) regions, where the agent state space may differ from the space being partitioned. One example of such regions is when the cost is given by the optimal solution of an LQR control problem. Then the agent states include position as well as velocity, while the partitioned space only includes positions. The agent utility is defined by integrating some utility density over the CIV region of the agent. This utility density might be the probability density of some beneficial event, such as receiving a pass in soccer. The utility is then the overall probability of receiving a pass and the gradient represents a way to improve that probability. We show how this utility gradient can be computed using the Reynolds Transport Theorem from fluid mechanics, and that this approach achieves similar accuracy while reducing computation time by about an order of magnitude compared to a baseline finite-difference approximation.

Human decision-making often involves choosing between multi-attribute alternatives, yet classical models assume fully compensatory utility aggregation despite evidence that people reject options with poor performance on critical attributes. We propose a bounded trade-off reasoning framework in which decisions are governed by a screening process that evaluates the balance between gains and losses across attributes. The model introduces a trade-off tolerance parameter that controls acceptable imbalance and can vary across contexts. Through simulation, we show that this mechanism produces preference patterns that differ from standard utility-based models and captures context-dependent variation in trade-off behavior. These results establish bounded trade-off screening as a plausible computational mechanism for multi-attribute choice and generate testable predictions for future behavioral studies.

As language models improve and become increasingly deployed to solve a variety of tasks, trustworthiness becomes essential. Calibration is a good proxy for trust: well-calibrated confidence estimates help inform the risk versus reward tradeoff when trusting a specific model output. Unfortunately, even as models improve, they remain poorly calibrated, often biasing towards overconfidence. Additionally, calibration can be gamed: a policy that always predicts the base rate is perfectly calibrated, but completely uninformative. To resolve this, we develop a new metric, expected utility renormalized by the oracle (EURO), that balances calibration and informativeness. We also propose a general-purpose activation-based confidence, utility, and trust estimation protocol (ACUTE) to appropriately adjudicate uncertainty. The ACUTE protocol provides flexible, sample-efficient, and compute-efficient confidence estimators for 3 tasks including multiple choice question answering, tool-calling, and scientific document summarization across 6 models from 4 model families. ACUTE outperforms strong baselines on EURO, while maintaining low calibration error. Taken together, our work shows that equipping LLMs with the ACUTE protocol can improve calibration, utility, and trustworthiness in numerous settings.

Next-generation wireless networks, including satellite-to-Open RAN systems, demand agile and intelligent resource management capable of handling dynamic multi-user interference under stochastic quality of service constraints. This paper introduces DIFFRACT, a neuralized utility maximization framework that leverages differentiable programming to integrate deep learning with optimization in wireless networks. Central to our approach is the exploitation of the mathematical structure of standard interference functions, which are foundational in wireless power control. By developing a duality theory for these functions, we map iterative interference management algorithms into differentiable neural network architectures via algorithm unrolling. This enables distributed, end-to-end gradient-based learning at the network edge, supporting real-time adaptation to interference in both terrestrial and non-terrestrial environments. DIFFRACT allows for scalable and robust utility maximization by modeling complex channel dynamics and leveraging the expressiveness of differentiable models. Experimental results confirm the framework's theoretical soundness and practical effectiveness for next-generation wireless systems.

This paper presents an autonomous agentic resource negotiation framework designed to enable zero-touch network slicing in 6G architectures using Large Language Model (LLM) agents. While LLMs offer powerful reasoning capabilities, we demonstrate that such agents inherently suffer from anchoring bias, rigidly adhering to initial heuristic proposals and causing severe network over-provisioning. To systematically mitigate this cognitive bias, we propose a novel randomized anchoring strategy modeled via a Truncated 3-Parameter Weibull distribution. This mathematically bounded approach seamlessly integrates with burst-aware Digital Twins (DTs) employing Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) to rigorously guarantee strict Service Level Agreement (SLA) tail-latencies. To validate our methodology, we introduce and prove the \emph{Bimodal Constraint-Avoidance Utility Theorem}, demonstrating that while feasible negotiations follow classical convex bounds, highly constrained scenarios undergo a phase transition governed by an inverse rational decay envelope. Empirical results generated using a locally hosted 1B-parameter model otel-llm-1b-it confirm these dual-regime bounds. Our cognitive de-biasing successfully dismantles rigid negotiation patterns, forcing agents into active exploration to safely ride SLA boundaries and boost system energy savings up to 25%. Crucially, the lightweight 1B LLM achieves sub-second inference latencies (0.95s mean), ensuring our multi-agent framework is compatible with the operational timescales of the O-RAN non-Real-Time RAN Intelligent Controller (non-RT RIC)\footnote{Our source code is available for non-commercial use at https://github.com/HatimChergui.

Worker utility is not observed -- only its consequence is. Each gig transaction produces a single bit: accepted or rejected. We argue this structure points directly to the Preisach hysteresis model as the natural representation of latent worker preferences. The Preisach operator models aggregate output as an integral over a population of binary threshold elements -- precisely the structure that emerges when heterogeneous workers each carry a private acceptance wage. We estimate two latent utility surfaces: acceptance utility U_1(X) and rejection utility U_0(X), via a dual-output neural network (shared layers 256->128, margin loss enforcing U_1 >= U_0). Classification reduces to the Preisach gap U_1(X) - U_0(X), passed into an XGBoost classifier alongside clip-stabilised price-to-threshold encodings. On 36,891 gig transactions, this pipeline achieves Jaccard = 0.827 and ROC AUC = 0.799. The price-to-threshold encoding accounts for +11.0 pp AUC over raw utility features. The model confirms the directional asymmetry hysteresis predicts: price decreases depress completion rates more than equivalent increases raise them. Applied to the full dataset, the model's recommendations simultaneously reduce the total wage bill by 21.3% and increase expected fill rate by 9.7 pp. For 74.2% of transactions, P(accept) already exceeds 0.80; reducing the wage keeps it above threshold (mean post-cut P = 0.972), releasing cost savings (median 31%). For the remaining 25.4%, a median 7% wage increase recovers +43 pp acceptance. A model without an explicit indifference zone cannot execute both moves simultaneously.

Many real-world classification tasks require predicting multiple labels per instance, necessitating the optimization of complex evaluation metrics such as the $F$-measure and Jaccard index. While the Empirical Utility Maximization (EUM) framework is natural for these population-level metrics, existing theoretical results are largely limited to asymptotic Bayes-consistency. In this paper, we develop principled learning algorithms for optimizing a broad class of generalized metrics within the EUM framework, grounded in the stronger notion of $H$-consistency. Our key contribution is the design of novel surrogate loss functions for multi-label learning that admit provable $H$-consistency bounds, enabling optimization with non-asymptotic guarantees tailored to the hypothesis class and finite samples. Crucially, we prove these combinatorially formulated surrogates decompose exactly, operating in strictly $O(l)$ time without approximations. Building on this foundation, we introduce MMO (Multi-Label Metric Optimization), a new family of algorithms for optimizing generalized linear-fractional metrics. We validate our approach through extensive experiments, demonstrating robust scalability and superior performance over state-of-the-art continuous baselines on large-scale datasets (MS-COCO, Reuters-21578) in high-sparsity, deep learning regimes. Our results offer both theoretical rigor and practical effectiveness for general multi-label metric optimization.

Tabular foundation models achieve strong accuracy on choice prediction tasks, but their predictions often violate the economic logic those tasks require: raising a price sometimes increases predicted demand, and implied willingness-to-pay estimates are frequently negative or implausible. We propose a two-stage adapter that embeds foundation model predictions within a utility-maximization framework. In the first stage, we estimate a standard choice model whose parameters are constrained to obey economic theory. In the second stage, we freeze those parameters and train a correction term that incorporates the foundation model's predictions as additional information. The result is a model that inherits the foundation model's accuracy gains while guaranteeing monotonic price-demand relationships under policy perturbation and producing analytically computable trade-off measures. On two transportation datasets, the adapter recovers up to 13 percentage points of accuracy over a standard logit model while maintaining perfect economic consistency, something neither the raw foundation models nor conventional distillation achieve.

Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting symbolized a huge improvement of reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, scaling up test-time computation yields extensive CoT sequences, introducing severe inference latency and key-value (KV) cache memory bottlenecks. While structural pruning offers a fundamental, hardware-aware solution to alleviate static parameter burdens, existing magnitude-based methods may cut off the neurons of CoT: by over-indexing on discrete cross-entropy objectives, these heuristics fall into a \textit{magnitude trap}: they prioritize high-frequency, low-information syntactic tokens and trigger a disappointing reasoning collapse at high sparsities (e.g., 40%). To overcome this topological phase transition, we propose \textsc{Relative Kinetic Utility} (RKU), a novel theoretical framework that elevates discrete pruning to a continuous kinetic integral over the depth manifold of the model based on Alternating Gradient Flow(AGF). By modifying it with Fisher trace normalization, RKU acts as a lightweight curvature-aware normalization to isolate \textit{kinetic spikes} -- the fundamental structural pathways responsible for high-curvature logical routing. Extensive experiments on Qwen-2.5-7B and LLaMA-3-8B improves performance in the high-sparsity regime around 40%. RKU attains 13.34% accuracy on GSM8K at 40% sparsity, outperforming the strongest baseline, and appears to better preserve reasoning-relevant representations under out-of-distribution evaluation.

Standard rational actor models often attribute cooperation failures in social dilemmas to insufficient incentives, overlooking the destabilizing effects of continuous utility maximization. To address this, we propose a framework of will" defined as a mechanism that persistently pursues goals while ignoring local cost-benefit fluctuations. We formalize the Willed Agents as potential minimizers, distinguishing them from cumulative utility maximization. Dynamical analysis of infinite population demonstrates that willed agents shrink the feasible state space, acting as boundary constraints that accelerate convergence in canonical social dilemmas. Through multi-agent simulations in a spatiotemporal Stag Hunt Game, we show that willed agents function as cooperation catalysts", enabling groups to surmount high-risk thresholds where purely utility maximization fails. We find that heterogeneous will strength promotes cooperation, and that agents who autonomously suspend rational re-evaluation can significantly outperform continuous optimizers. These findings suggest that successful cooperation relies on the cognitive capacity to strategically constrain calculation.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for exponential-utility optimization in discounted Markov decision processes (MDPs) lacks principled value-based algorithms. We address this gap in the fixed risk-aversion setting. Building on the Bellman-type equation for exponential utility studied in \cite{porteus1975optimality}, we derive two Q-value-style extensions and show that the associated operators are contractions in the $L_\infty$ and sup-log/Thompson metrics, respectively. We characterize their fixed points and prove that the induced greedy stationary policy is optimal for the exponential-utility objective among stationary policies. These structural results lead to two model-free algorithms: a two-timescale Q-learning--style algorithm, for which we establish almost-sure convergence and provide finite-time convergence rates via timescale separation, and a one-timescale algorithm governed by a sublinear power-law operator. Since the latter does not admit a global contraction in standard metrics, we prove its convergence using delicate arguments based on local Lipschitzness, monotonicity, homogeneity, and Dini derivatives, and provide a scalar finite-time analysis that highlights the challenges in obtaining convergence rates in the vector case. Our work provides a foundation for value-based RL under exponential-utility objectives.

Nash equilibrium serves as a fundamental mathematical tool in economics and game theory. However, it classically assumes knowledge of player utilities, whereas economics generally regards preferences as more fundamental. To leverage equilibrium analysis in strategic scenarios, one must first elicit numerical utilities consistent with player preferences, a delicate and time-consuming process. In this work, we forgo precise utilities and generalize the Nash equilibrium to a setting where we only assume a player is capable of providing an ordinal ranking of their actions within the context of other players' joint actions. The key technical challenge is to rethink the definition of a best-response. While the classical definition identifies actions maximizing expected payoff, we naturally look towards social choice theory for how to aggregate preferences to identify the most preferred actions. We define this generalized notion of a context-ordinal Nash equilibrium, establish its existence under mild conditions on aggregation methods, introduce notions of regularization, approximation, and regret, explore complexity for simple settings, and develop learning rules for computing such equilibria. In doing so, we provide a generalization of Nash equilibrium and demonstrate its direct applicability to elicited preferences in human experiments.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used in analytical workflows, but their suitability as exploratory data analysis (EDA) agents in business settings remains uncertain. In practice, a deployable EDA agent must provide not only useful average performance but also sufficient repeatability to support trust in its outputs. We evaluate this requirement in a controlled, business-relevant benchmark built on an agent-based supply chain simulation. The task is to identify supplier-product combinations responsible for low quality and downstream sales loss by reasoning from indirect operational traces rather than from explicit labels. Fifteen model-variant configurations from eight model families were evaluated under four experimental conditions that varied data representation, prompt clarity, and signal strength, with five trajectories per condition. Outputs were scored against deterministic ground truth using the Jaccard index and assessed through a framework that combines mean score (ms), coefficient of variation (CV), exploratory cross-condition significance tests, and Business utility, a risk-adjusted metric that we propose to summarise quality and repeatability in a single operational measure. The results show that most configurations are not reliable enough for autonomous EDA use, even when their average scores appear acceptable. GPT-5.4 with extra-high reasoning effort achieved the strongest overall profile, with an experiment-averaged ms of 0.8748 and an experiment-averaged Business utility of 0.6952, while the next-best configurations lost substantially more utility after variability discounting. Our findings suggest that evaluation of EDA agents should treat average quality, repeatability, and condition sensitivity as complementary dimensions of operational trustworthiness.

Regulatory approval of products in high-stakes domains such as drug development requires statistical evidence of safety and efficacy through large-scale randomized controlled trials. However, the high financial cost of these trials may deter developers who lack absolute certainty in their product's efficacy, ultimately stifling the development of `moonshot' products that could offer high social utility. To address this inefficiency, in this paper, we introduce a statistical protocol for experimentation where the product developer (the agent) conducts a randomized controlled trial sequentially and the regulator (the principal) partially subsidizes its cost. By modeling the protocol using a belief Markov decision process, we show that the agent's optimal strategy can be found efficiently using dynamic programming. Further, we show that the social utility is a piecewise linear and convex function over the subsidy level the principal selects, and thus the socially optimal subsidy can also be found efficiently using divide-and-conquer. Simulation experiments using publicly available data on antibiotic development and approval demonstrate that our statistical protocol can be used to increase social utility by more than 35$$\% relative to standard, non-sequential protocols.

Risk scoring systems are widely used in high-stakes domains to assist decision-making. However, existing approaches often focus on optimizing predictive accuracy or likelihood-based criteria, which may not align with the main goal of maximizing utility. In this paper, we propose a novel risk scoring system that directly optimizes net benefit over a range of decision thresholds. The model is formulated as a sparse integer linear programming problem which enables the construction of a transparent scoring system with integer coefficients, and hence, facilitates interpretation and practical application. We also establish fundamental relationships among net benefit, discrimination, and calibration. Our analysis proves that optimizing net benefit also guarantees conventional performance measures. We evaluated our method on multiple public datasets as well as on a large-scale credit risk dataset. This computational study demonstrated that our interpretable method can effectively achieve high net benefit while maintaining competitive discrimination and calibration performance.

Discrete choice models are fundamental tools in management science, economics, and marketing for understanding and predicting decision-making. Logit-based models are dominant in applied work, largely due to their convenient closed-form expressions for choice probabilities. However, they impose restrictive assumptions on the stochastic utility component, constraining our ability to capture realistic substitution patterns. We propose an amortized inference approach that relies on a neural network emulator to approximate choice probabilities for general error distributions, including those with correlated errors. We develop a specialized neural network architecture designed to respect the invariance properties of discrete choice models. We provide group-theoretic foundations for the architecture, including a proof of universal approximation given a minimal set of invariant features. Once trained, the emulator enables rapid likelihood evaluation and gradient computation. We use Sobolev training, augmenting the likelihood loss with a gradient-matching penalty, so that the emulator learns both choice probabilities and their derivatives. We show that emulator-based maximum likelihood estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal under mild approximation conditions, and we provide sandwich standard errors that remain valid for a psuedo-true parameter even with imperfect likelihood approximation. Simulations show significant gains over the GHK simulator in accuracy and speed.

Generalized extreme value models capture dependence among choice alternatives in discrete choice modeling, but require this dependence to be predefined, symmetric, and shared uniformly across individuals. Recent efforts to synergize discrete choice models with deep neural networks have improved predictive performance but still cannot explicitly represent alternative dependence within neural architectures. To address these gaps, we introduce the alternative graph -- a graph in which nodes represent choice alternatives and edges encode their dependence -- and propose Alternative Graph Neural Networks (Alt-GNNs), a family of GNN-based discrete choice models that embed alternative dependence within a unified framework. Theoretically, Alt-GNNs incorporate multinomial logit, nested logit, and ASU-DNN as special cases and enable innovative model designs, including Nested Alt-GNN, Complete Alt-GNN, and Attention Alt-GNN. Alt-GNNs are consistent with random utility maximization theory, enforce behavioral constraints through alternative graphs, and offer a novel graph-based interpretation of utility functions. Empirically, on two travel mode choice datasets from London and Chicago, Alt-GNNs significantly improve predictive performance over all benchmark models in mode choice modeling because of their flexible alternative graph design and vast hyperparameter space. Even the simplest Alt-GNN variant -- Nested Alt-GNN -- generalizes the nested logit model while preserving its unique two-layer substitution properties, enabling graph-based behavioral constraints over otherwise unconstrained behavioral patterns from deep neural networks.

We study the problem of fair cohort selection under uncertainty, motivated by university admissions where applicant outcomes are only partially observed. We consider both a one-shot setting, where a fixed policy is applied to a population, and a sequential setting, where policies are updated over time using data from previous admission years. We propose a policy optimization framework that combines probabilistic modeling of outcomes with policy gradient methods, supporting both logistic and neural network policies. In the sequential setting, the approach jointly updates the policy and the underlying models to adapt to evolving applicant populations. Experiments on a simulator grounded in real admission data show that adaptive policies substantially outperform static baselines in term of expected utility, especially under higher admission costs. Neural policies consistently achieve higher utility and adapt more effectively than simpler models, while maintaining favorable fairness properties over time. Our results demonstrate the importance of adaptivity and model expressiveness for decision-making under uncertainty.

Fairness in decision-making processes is often quantified using probabilistic metrics. However, these metrics need not reflect the consequences of decisions for the affected individuals and groups. We develop a utility-based framework that incorporates these consequences into the assessment of fairness. Our main result shows that a decision-making process can satisfy $\varepsilon$-fairness while nevertheless being maximally unfair once the utilities associated with its outcomes are taken into account. To address applications in which information on false negatives is unavailable, we also formulate a reduced setting that retains the essential elements of the utility-based fairness assessment. We illustrate the framework through two applications: college admissions and credit-risk assessment. In both cases, probabilistic metrics may classify a decision-making process as approximately fair even though the corresponding utility outcomes are highly unequal. In the college-admissions example, our analysis shows that improving completion rates is necessary to achieve equality of utility across groups, while in the mortgage example, mitigating unfairness requires not only adjusting approval rates but also reducing the adverse consequences of default. These findings demonstrate that fairness assessments should account not only for the probabilities of different decisions but also for the consequences of those decisions.

Classical data valuation defines a data point's value through the finite marginal contribution $U(C\cup\{i\})-U(C)$, but estimating this quantity over coalitions requires repeated training and does not describe the contribution made along a stochastic training path. We ask whether marginal contributions of data points can be estimated from one coupled trajectory while retaining a verifiable relation to coalition-based values. To this end, we introduce Neural Dynamic Data Valuation (NDDV), which models each data point as a controlled stochastic state and computes a first-order marginal-contribution score via the adjoint equation of the Stochastic Maximum Principle (SMP). This raw sensitivity is then calibrated by a mass-preserving redistribution that increases one data point's participation while redistributing the same total weight over the remaining data points. We prove that the resulting backward adjoint recursion is the exact reverse-mode adjoint of the frozen-aggregate Euler system, bound its discrepancy from the mean-field sensitivity, and express each finite coalition marginal as an integral of local sample-weight sensitivities. These results yield pair-specific error bounds and sufficient conditions for ordering agreement with Shapley, Banzhaf, and leave-one-out values. Experiments on existing benchmarks evaluate marginal-contribution fidelity, score-release cost, corrupted-sample detection, ablations, and failure regimes. NDDV is a one-run, trajectory-conditioned estimator, not an unconditional replacement for cooperative-game values.

Many fairness criteria constrain the policy or choice of predictors, which can have unwanted consequences, in particular, when optimizing the policy under such constraints. Here, we in- stead suggest that fairness can be directly analyzed as a property of the utility function. Instead of imposing fairness constraints on the policy, we suggest to simply maximize a utility function satisfying certain fairness properties. Concretely, we define value of information fairness, which prescribes that there must not be an incentive to infer the protected attribute. This principle sug- gests modifying utility functions such that they satisfy value of information fairness. We describe how such modifications can be achieved and discuss consequences for the corresponding optimal policies. We apply our framework to thought experiments and the COMPAS data, demonstrating that focusing on utility functions sometimes provides answers that better align with intuitive judg- ments about what is fair. Moreover, we are not aware of any intuitively fair policy that violates value of information fairness; and when we find that value of information fairness recommends an intuitively unfair policy, no realizable policy is intuitively fair.