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9 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 239

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When do prophets profit in prediction markets?
Jul 7, 2026Anri Gu, Nicole Kagan, Alec Sun +2Probabilistic Forecasting Proper Scoring Rules
University of Chicago · Kalshi Research · New York University, Shanghai
Meta-Benchmarks for Financial-Services LLM Evaluation
Jul 2, 2026Blair HudsonFinancial Services LLM Evaluation
Commonwealth Bank of Australia
RusFinChain: A Russian Benchmark for Verifiable Chain-of-Thought Reasoning in Finance with Fuzzy-Aligned Evaluation
Jul 1, 2026M. K. ArabovLogical Reasoning LLM Evaluation
Kazan Federal University · Institute of Computational Mathematics and Information Technologies · Department of Data Analysis +1
Evidence-Supported Credit Risk Report Generation Using News-Centric Financial Knowledge Graphs
Jul 1, 2026Rocio Jimenez-Villen, Ziwei Xu, Ying Chen +2KG Construction Financial Services
Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain · Institute of Science Tokyo, Japan
Decision-focused Sparse Tangent Portfolio Optimization
Jul 1, 2026Haeun Jeon, Seunghoon Choi, Hyunglip Bae +2Decision-Focused Learning Portfolio Optimization
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, Republic of Korea · Department of Big Data Convergence, and Bigdata Research Lab, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Republic of Korea · Department of Industrial Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, Republic of Korea
FinPersona-Bench: A Benchmark for Longitudinal Psychometric Stability of Autonomous Financial Agents
Jun 30, 2026Muhammad Usman Safder, Ayesha Gull, Rania Elbadry +7Personality Modeling in Language Models Long-Horizon Agent Evaluation
Steve · MBZUAI · The University of Tokyo +2
CSTrader: A Testbed for Language-Grounded Trading in a Community-Driven Virtual Asset Market
Jun 30, 2026Yao Shi, Kingfung Luo, Nan Tang +1Multi-Agent LLM Systems Finance
(Guangzhou). · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
A Three-Phase Foundation Model for Tax-Aware Personalized Portfolio Management
Jun 30, 2026Ramin PishehvarMulti-Objective Reinforcement Learning Portfolio Optimization
Heads, Not Backbones: Output Heads Dominate Architectures on Fat-Tailed Returns
Jun 29, 2026Sichao He, Yansong ZhangQuantitative Finance Financial Forecasting
Peking University · Academy for Advanced Interdisciplinary Studies · Beijing, China +2
Fund2Persona: A Framework for Building and Refining Financial Advisor Personas from Fund Disclosure Data
Jun 29, 2026Suhwan Park, Hoyoung Lee, Zhangyang Wang +5Financial Services LLM Personalization
UNIST · LinqAlpha · University of Texas at Austin +3
Fast Numbers, Slow Language: Bridging Quantitative and Qualitative Earnings Signals
Jun 29, 2026Ding Yu, Zhuo Liu, Hao Zhang +1Quantitative Finance Financial Sentiment Analysis
University of Rochester · Rochester Institute of Technology
How Much Due Diligence Before You Bid? Learning in Intractable Takeover Auctions
Jun 28, 2026Zain NaboulsiSelf-Play RL Imperfect-Information Games
Principal AI Engineer, Sparq
Adaptive Financial Transformer with Regime-Gated Attention for Stock Return Prediction
Jun 28, 2026Dishan SarkarMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Department of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Birla Institute of Technology, Mesra Ranchi, India
When Summaries Distort Decisions: Information Fidelity in LLM-Compressed Financial Analysis
Jun 28, 2026Hoyoung Lee, Suhwan Park, Seunghan Lee +15LLM Compression LLM Auditing
UNIST · LinqAlpha · LG AI Research +9
AI Trading's Alpha Singularity: Emergent Market Reasoning through Agent-to-Agent Self-Evolution
Jun 28, 2026Yuqi Li, Siyuan Liu, Bingjun LiuAutomated Algorithm Discovery Multi-Agent Reasoning
Panda AI
Liquidity-Based Audit of Algorithmic Trading Strategies
Jun 27, 2026Irene AldridgeFinancial Services Quantitative Finance
Constrained Tabular Diffusion for Finance
Jun 27, 2026Michael Cardei, Jose M Munoz, Oscar Barrera +2Quantitative Finance Diffusion Model Sampling
University of Virginia · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Harvard University +1
Deployment-Side Adaptiveness in Multi-Horizon Volatility Forecasting
Jun 26, 2026Riku Green, Zahraa S. Abdallah, Telmo M Silva FilhoFinancial Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
The University of Bristol Bristol, UK
Causal Connections: Leveraging Multilingual Fine-Tuning for Financial QA@FinCausal 2026
Jun 25, 2026Akash Kumar Gautam, Serhii Hamotskyi, Christian HänigRelation Extraction LLM Fine-Tuning
Anhalt University of Applied Sciences
InvestPhilBench: A Multi-Layer Benchmark for Evaluating Large Language Model Procedural Reasoning in Expert Investment Philosophy
Jun 24, 2026Mingguang Chen, Bo QuLLM Evaluation Finance
University of California, Riverside (UCR). · 2Illinois Institute of Technology (IIT).
Agentic Knowledge Tracing: A Multi-Agent LLM Architecture for Stealth Assessment of Financial Literacy in Serious Games
Jun 24, 2026Gabriel Santos, Rita Julia, Marcelo NascimentoMulti-Agent LLMs Finance
Federal University of Uberlˆandia Computer Science Faculty S˜ao Paulo, Brazil
MacroLens: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Contextual Financial Reasoning under Macroeconomic Scenarios
Jun 23, 2026Patara Trirat, Jin Myung Kwak, Jay Heo +2Quantitative Finance Financial Forecasting
KAIST
RAVEN: A Regime-Aware Variable-context Expert Network for Financial Time Series Forecasting
Jun 23, 2026Cheng He, Zhenyu Guan, Xijie Liang +6Financial Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
University of Science and Technology of China, China · Shanghai Black Wing Asset Management Co., Ltd., China · College of Sciences, Shanghai University, China +2
Decomposing Financial Market Dynamics via Mechanism Analysis in an Evolutionary Multi-Agent Simulation
Jun 22, 2026Zhibao ChenQuantitative Finance Agent-Based Modeling
IPO Finance Agent: Benchmark of LLM Financial Analysts Beyond Finance Agent v2, with Automated Rubric Generation, on the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO
Jun 22, 2026Mostapha BenhendaIn-Context Retrieval LLM-as-a-Judge
MetaPS: Adaptive Programmatic Strategy Selection for Market Agents
Jun 21, 2026Jiaxiang Chen, Aotian Luo, Zhouyi Zheng +3Algorithm Selection LLM Agent Training
1Fudan University · 2TensorPacific
CFAgentBench: A Reproducible Environment and Benchmark for Autonomous Construction-Finance Agents
Jun 20, 2026Rishi SrivastavaBenchmark Construction LLM Agent Evaluation
Beiing Human
EvidenceLens: A Claim-Evidence Matrix for Auditing Financial Question Answering
Jun 19, 2026Fengchen Gu, Xiaotian Ren, Zhengyong Jiang +6Data Visualization LLM Answer Verification
School of AI and Advanced Computing, XJTLU Entrepreneur College (Taicang), Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China · ETSI de Telecomunicaci´on, Universidad Polit´ecnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
AI Economist Agent: An Agentic Framework for Evidence-Based Economic and Financial Analysis with RAG, Knowledge Graphs, and Large Language Models
Jun 18, 2026Masahiro KatoAgentic RAG LLM Agents
The University of Tokyo
FinRED: An Expert-Guided Benchmark Generation and Evaluation Framework for Financial LLM Red-Teaming
Jun 18, 2026Chaeyun Kim, Daeyoung Park, Junghwan Kim +4LLM Safety Benchmarks Financial Services
DATUMO INC., Republic of Korea · Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), Republic of Korea · Financial Security Institute (FSI), Republic of Korea

Jul 7, 2026, cs.AIJ/K move · Enter open · S save

When do prophets profit in prediction markets?

Anri Gu, Nicole Kagan, Alec Sun, Jibang Wu+1

University of Chicago · Kalshi Research · New York University, Shanghai

Probabilistic Forecasting Proper Scoring Rules Finance Algorithmic Trading Prediction Markets

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Prediction markets aggregate dispersed beliefs into prices that act as probabilistic forecasts of uncertain events. Classical theory establishes a clean equivalence between forecasting accuracy and trading profit, but only for the specific automated market maker (AMM) design. However, the largest exchanges today are based on central limit order books in which informed forecasters routinely lose money while uninformed strategies can profit on simple heuristics. We resolve this discrepancy by establishing a formal equivalence between predictive accuracy and profitability. For any strictly proper scoring rule

S

, we exhibit a "proper" betting strategy that depends only on the forecaster's prediction

\mathbf{p}

and the market price

\mathbf{q}

, and earns positive expected profit whenever

\mathbf{p}

outperforms

\mathbf{q}

under

S

and the market has sufficient liquidity. Moreover, this proper betting is essentially the only strategy with such robust profitability guarantee. The proof rests on a decomposition of expected profit that strictly generalizes the classical AMM guarantee and also explains how strategies can profit without an accuracy edge. Empirically, across thousands of forecasts by AI models, proper betting is the only strategy that reliably converts accuracy into profit, and we further identify systematic forecasting personas and show how the optimal proper strategy varies across them. A month-long live deployment on Kalshi achieves

+80.33\%

return on investment with a Sharpe ratio of

3.35

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Latest papers 239