Forecasting

Aggregate scores for continual learning algorithms rest on a distribution over task orders that is rarely stated. We formulate algorithm comparison as an expectation over a declared order distribution, which separates training variation from order variation, and apply it to motion forecasting with four road-layout tasks from the INTERACTION dataset, all 24 task orders, four algorithms, and three training replicates (288 runs). Task order accounts for 65% to 91% of the variation in current-task error and backward transfer, and 90% to 99% of this order effect comes from the identity of the starting task: the smallest task cannot be learned from a cold start. Beyond the first stage, the order effect is comparable to training variability. In most orders, the leading algorithm in current-task error and backward transfer is within one replicate standard deviation of the runner-up. Backward transfer depends on the order mainly through its reference term, which weights the first task most heavily, so relative improvement and final error identify different leading algorithms for displacement error. A transition-direction descriptor computed from task statistics tracks the position of the smallest task, and weighting orders by it leaves the algorithm ranking unchanged. These results call for benchmarks that declare their order distribution and report order-resolved, starting-task-resolved, warm-start, and final errors alongside aggregate scores. The code and data are available here.

Future dynamic novel-view synthesis requires extrapolating multiple motion regimes within the same scene. A single dynamics model may not simultaneously represent stationary regions, coordinated motion, local interactions, and articulated trajectories. We introduce Motion Regime Expert Routing for Gaussian Splatting (MoRE-GS), a causal, render-aware framework for forecasting dynamic 3D Gaussian scenes. MoRE-GS freezes a Gaussian representation reconstructed exclusively from the observed temporal prefix and forecasts its control-keypoint motion using four complementary experts: persistence, a coefficient-space Transformer, a graph convolutional network, and a structured Transformer with rigid and non-rigid motion constraints. A compact routing table assigns expert mixtures across soft motion groups and forecast-horizon bins, while a persistence gate suppresses unreliable extrapolation. Across D-NeRF and HyperNeRF scenes, MoRE-GS achieves improved performance against other methods, and these results demonstrate that renderer-calibrated composition of complementary motion predictors improves causal dynamic Gaussian forecasting across heterogeneous motion regimes. Project page: https://advanced-vision-and-learning-lab.github.io/MoRE-GS-website/

Longitudinal models forecast how a patient's imaging state evolves, but accuracy does not show whether the patient's observed trajectory drives the prediction. A population-average forecast may be useful but cannot establish a patient-specific world-model claim. We introduce Patient, Place, Prior (P$^3$), an audit asking whether a forecast benefits from the patient's longitudinal imaging history (Patient), benefits from patient-matched externally supplied spatial support (Place), and gains predictive value beyond a population-average prediction under matched support and context (Prior). We also propose Cancer JEPA, a one-step model that forecasts frozen representations of future breast dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI examinations during neoadjuvant therapy. It adds a lesion-constrained neural correction, trained with an occlusion-based latent objective, to a patient-conditioned low-complexity reduced-rank regression baseline. This factorization permits a post-hoc P$^3$ audit of the frozen model. In a validation cohort previously used in development, forecast error is lower when the neural correction receives the patient's history rather than another patient's and patient-matched lesion occupancy maps rather than substituted maps. However, the descriptive 95% interval comparing the correction computed from patient history with the population-average neural correction includes zero. P$^3$ thus separates input use from evidence of patient-specific predictive value beyond a population-level pattern.

Forecasters often score the same units per date against one standardized realized outcome. We show that every standardized forecast splits exactly into a component aligned with this common target and a component uncorrelated with it. Three consequences follow: forecast-error correlation largely mirrors forecast correlation and is therefore a poor measure of diversity; an equally weighted combination beats a no-information forecast only when average alignment is large relative to the combination's dispersion; and the gain from adding a forecaster separates into genuine improvement and mere dilution, which equal-weight admission can mistakenly reward. We develop a cautious selection rule, study it in simulations, and apply it to language-model forecasts of US equity rankings and mechanical signals ranking exchange-traded funds. Selection removes most dilution losses, but no combination beats the no-information forecast.

In many operational time-series forecasting applications, such as crowd demand forecasting, the risk related to under-prediction is substantially higher than that of over-prediction. Accurate prediction of rare demand spikes plays a critical role in downstream tasks. Yet most time-series forecasters are trained with symmetric objectives (e.g., MSE, MAE) and evaluated primarily on aggregate error, which can mask failures in extreme-values and peak-timing predictions. We introduce Asymmetric Peak-Aware Loss (APAL), a simple, model-agnostic objective that (i) penalizes under-predictions more heavily and (ii) increases the training weight of peak regions within each forecast window. We further propose a peak-critical evaluation protocol that complements MAE/MSE with channel-wise tail error (Top-10% and Top-1%) and peak metrics (precision, recall, F1 under timing tolerance, and peak timing error). We evaluate APAL on long-horizon multivariate forecasting across five state-of-the-art backbones, with a focus on pedestrian demand forecasting using (i) a production-ready subset of the City of Melbourne pedestrian hourly count dataset and (ii) a beach visitor count dataset. The generality of the loss function for time-series forecasting is tested on additional benchmarks. Across peak-critical datasets and settings, APAL improves tail accuracy and peak-prediction quality while exposing a controllable trade-off with aggregate error, making it a practical solution when peak-prediction failures are the dominant operational concern.

Reconstructing dynamic 3D scenes from multi-view videos is a foundational task for robotics, AR/VR, and digital twins. While 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) provides state-of-the art scene representation, its dynamic adaptations (4DGS) face significant challenges. Early MLP-based deformation models excel at interpolating within training frames but fail at temporal extrapolation --- important feature for forecasting in predictive systems. To address this, physically grounded approaches have been proposed to enable robust future forecasting, while, concurrently, semantic 4DGS methods have been developed for scene analysis and language-driven prompting. However, there is currently no framework that unites both physical consistency and semantic understanding. In this paper, we propose the first, to the best of our knowledge, unified 4DGS approach that is both physically grounded and semantically aware. Furthermore, to optimize computational efficiency, we introduce a novel rigid-body constraint mechanism. Instead of predicting the physical dynamics for every Gaussian particle, our model predicts the motion of a single anchor Gaussian per semantic object, updating the remaining Gaussians via relative transformations. This architectural design significantly accelerates novel view synthesis compared to an unconstrained baseline, while enabling object-accurate extrapolation and intuitive semantic interaction. Our project page: https://be2rlab.github.io/r5dgs/.

We present 4DLidarOpen, a large-scale open multi-modal dataset for autonomous driving, centered on 4D frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW) Lidar sensing. Unlike conventional time-of-flight Lidar datasets that mainly provide geometric measurements, 4DLidarOpen includes point-wise radial velocity measurements from a forward-facing 4D FMCW Lidar, together with multiple Lidars of different types, including rotating, solid-state, and blind-spot variants, surround-view cameras, and 6-DOF ego-vehicle poses. The dataset was collected in complex urban environments in Beijing and covers dense pedestrian interactions, congested traffic, high-speed driving, and unprotected maneuvers. 4DLidarOpen provides synchronized multi-sensor data and 3D bounding-box annotations with persistent track IDs across five object categories. A hybrid annotation strategy is adopted, where large-scale auto-labeled data support scalable training and human experts refine annotations for the human-annotated training and validation sets. Based on this dataset, we establish benchmarks for 3D object detection, birds-eye view (BEV) segmentation and flow prediction, and motion forecasting with planning. Extensive experiments show that direct velocity measurements from 4D FMCW Lidar provide complementary motion cues for dynamic-scene understanding. Compared with geometric-only sensing, the velocity-aware representation improves motion-related perception and downstream forecasting and planning, especially in scenarios involving vulnerable road users and fast-moving objects. These results indicate that 4D FMCW Lidar is a promising sensing modality for motion-aware autonomous driving. The dataset and evaluation toolkit are publicly released to support research on 4D scene understanding, multi-Lidar fusion, and velocity-aware perception and planning.

Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instability and lacks a verifiable, compositional structure. To address this, we introduce Analytica, a novel agent architecture built on the principle of Soft Propositional Reasoning (SPR). SPR reframes complex analysis as a structured process of estimating the soft truth values of different outcome propositions, allowing us to formally model and minimize the estimation error in terms of its bias and variance. Analytica operationalizes this through a parallel, divide-and-conquer framework that systematically reduces both sources of error. To reduce bias, problems are first decomposed into a tree of subpropositions, and tool-equipped LLM grounder agents are employed, including a novel Jupyter Notebook agent for data-driven analysis, that help to validate and score facts. To reduce variance, Analytica recursively synthesizes these grounded leaves using robust linear models that average out stochastic noise with superior efficiency, scalability, and enable interactive "what-if" scenario analysis. Our theoretical and empirical results on economic, financial, and political forecasting tasks show that Analytica improves 15.84% accuracy on average over diverse base models, achieving 71.06% accuracy with the lowest variance of 6.02% when working with a Deep Research grounder. Our Jupyter Notebook grounder shows strong cost-effectiveness that achieves a close 70.11% accuracy with 90.35% less cost and 52.85% less time. Analytica also exhibits highly noise-resilient and stable performance growth as the analysis depth increases, with a near-linear time complexity, as well as good adaptivity to open-weight LLMs and scientific domains.

Recent advancements in motion forecasting have been significantly accelerated by self-supervised pre-training techniques. However, current methods typically rely on extensive fine-tuning of pre-trained models for downstream tasks like trajectory prediction, a process that can be inefficient. This inefficiency primarily arises because traditional fine-tuning strategies fail to fully exploit the close alignment between motion prediction tasks and masked reconstruction objectives used during pre-training. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Forecast-PEFT, a parameter-efficient fine-tuning framework specifically designed for motion forecasting. Forecast-PEFT preserves most of the pre-trained model's parameters, introducing minimal yet effective adjustments through novel prompts and adapters. By doing so, Forecast-PEFT significantly reduces the number of parameters needing retraining while preserving essential pre-trained knowledge. Our method demonstrates robust generalization across multiple datasets, achieving higher accuracy with only about 17% of the parameters required by traditional full fine-tuning approaches. Additionally, our fully fine-tuned variant, Forecast-FT, further enhances prediction performance, achieving improvements of up to 9.6% over conventional baseline methods. These findings highlight Forecast-PEFT as a scalable, efficient, and effective alternative for fine-tuning pre-trained motion forecasting models. Code is available at https://github.com/csjfwang/Forecast-PEFT.