Human Trajectory Prediction

Latest papers

14 papers1 paper in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Oct 6, 2026

Revisiting Numerical Forecasting Models for Language-Based Trajectory Prediction

Language-based trajectory predictors represent coordinates as discrete tokens and learn auxiliary tasks such as destination and group reasoning. This formulation enables the model to capture behavioral intent and social context beyond coordinate dynamics alone. However, token-level objectives provide only indirect guidance for continuous coordinate-space dynamics. To address this limitation, we introduce MoRE (Mixture of Reward Experts), a refinement framework that transfers numerical forecasting priors into a pretrained language-based predictor through reinforcement learning. Five frozen numerical predictors provide complementary coordinate-level knowledge of motion and interactions. Their predictions are converted into expert rewards and combined through an uncertainty-weighted consensus that penalizes disagreement. A ground-truth reward anchors the prediction to the target trajectory. To focus refinement on difficult cases, MoRE refines the policy using the top 1% of training samples ranked by predictive entropy. Expert predictions are computed once and cached before PPO training, so the experts are not run during policy updates or inference. In this way, MoRE combines the contextual modeling of the language-based predictor with coordinate-level feedback from numerical experts. On ETH-UCY, MoRE reduces ADE from 0.22 to 0.20 m and FDE from 0.32 to 0.29 m. Relative to the base policy, ADE decreases by 17.9% on SDD and 12.7% on NBA. On ETH-UCY, MoRE also reduces collision rates and better matches ground-truth pedestrian spacing, without increasing measured inference memory or latency. The project page is available at https://jungyu0413.github.io/MoRE/.

JunGyu Lee, Inhwan Bae, Hae-Gon Jeon

Yonsei University · DGIST

Reward Modeling RL for Language Models Trajectory Generation Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction

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Sep 12, 2026

GEAR: From Dynamic Encoding to Dynamic Activation in Social Trajectory Prediction

Human trajectory prediction requires modeling both individual motion patterns and social interactions among agents. Existing methods have made substantial progress by using attention mechanisms, graph structures, and temporal encoders to capture dynamic social context. However, most of them primarily focus on how social information is encoded, while paying less explicit attention to how the encoded social context should take effect during future trajectory generation. In this paper, we argue that dynamic social encoding does not necessarily imply dynamic social activation. The same interaction context may require different activation strengths across future horizons and scene densities: social cues should be strengthened when interaction evidence is strong, but suppressed when they are weak or noisy. To address this issue, we propose GEAR, a generation-aware bias activation model for human trajectory prediction. Built upon a bias-decomposed trajectory generation formulation, GEAR dynamically activates the individual-motion and social-resonance bias terms at each future step before final trajectory composition. This allows the model to explicitly control when and how strongly individual and social bias components participate in generation. Experiments on ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA show that GEAR consistently improves the resonance-based baseline and achieves competitive state-of-the-art performance. Further analyses of activation patterns and density-grouped errors validate the importance of calibrating encoded social context during trajectory generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/11isnotavailable/GEAR.git.

Jiaheng Chen, Jiaxing Li, Leixia Wang +2

Software College Northeastern University Shenyang, China

Human Trajectory Prediction Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Human Motion Prediction

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Jun 17, 2026

Congestion-Aware Robot Tour Planning in Crowded Environments

Autonomous mobile service robots are often required to complete tours that require navigating through a set of locations in an environment. Example domains include guiding people through a shopping mall, delivering packages in a fulfilment centre, or giving guided tours in a museum. However, in crowded environments, the presence of people may negatively impact robot performance. For example, humans will activate robot collision avoidance manoeuvres that slow the robot down. Crowds move stochastically and vary throughout the day. In this paper we present a probabilistic tour planner for crowded environments which explicitly reasons over human congestion. We learn circular linear flow field (CLiFF) maps which predict human trajectories given an initial observation. We then use these predictions to build and solve a Markov decision process online which efficiently routes the robot through the environment. Our approach is scalable enough to re-plan as new people are observed. We evaluate our approach on a real-world crowd dataset in a shopping mall.

Stefano Bernagozzi, Charlie Street, Masoumeh Mansouri +1

1Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia – Genova, Italia · 2Universit`a di Genova – Genova, Italia · University of Birmingham – Birmingham, United Kingdom

Robot Navigation Human Trajectory Prediction

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Jun 11, 2026

An Attention-based Model for Robust Forecasting with Missing Modality

Learning with missing modalities is a fundamental challenge in multimodal robot learning, as real-world robotic systems often operate in environments with incomplete sensor data. Attention-based models are appealing for processing multimodal data because they can handle multiple modalities with a single backbone network. However, most multimodal models assume that all modalities are available during both training and inference, limiting their applicability in robotic perception and decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a multimodal model designed to handle missing modalities during both training and inference. The model is formulated as a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) and incorporates a transformer-based architecture that leverages attention mechanisms to learn a unified, fixed-dimensional representation, even when some modalities are missing. We show that our proposed model can be trained with missing modalities while approximating a robust representation of all modalities. We evaluate our approach on five multimodal datasets across two robot learning tasks: human trajectory prediction and robot manipulation forecasting. Experimental results demonstrate that our model effectively learns from incomplete data and is superior to prior multimodal fusion approaches.

Zhitian Zhang, Wenjie Zi, Yunduz Rakhmangulova +3

1Simon Fraser University · 2RBC Borealis

Missing-Modality Learning Human Trajectory Prediction Multimodal Fusion

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May 13, 2026

HCSG: Human-Centric Semantic-Geometric Reasoning for Vision-Language Navigation

VLN has achieved remarkable progress by scaling data and model capacity. However, the assumption of a static environment breaks down in real-world indoor scenarios, where robots inevitably encounter dynamic pedestrians. Existing human-aware approaches typically treat humans merely as moving obstacles based on implicit visual cues, lacking the explicit reasoning required to interpret human intentions or maintain social norms. To address this, we propose HCSG, the first human-centric framework for VLN. This framework provides a robust foundation for safe, socially intelligent navigation in dynamic human-robot environments that shifts the paradigm from passive collision avoidance to active human behavior understanding. Specifically, HCSG introduces a unified Human Understanding Module that synergizes two key capabilities: (i) geometric forecasting, which predicts human pose and trajectory to anticipate future motion dynamics; and (ii) semantic interpretation, which leverages a Vision-Language Model (VLM) to generate natural language descriptions of human actions and intentions. These semantic-geometric representations are fused into the agent's topological map for instruction-conditioned planning. Furthermore, a social distance loss is introduced to enforce socially compliant interaction distances. Extensive experiments on the HA-VLNCE benchmark demonstrate that HCSG significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving a 14% improvement in Success Rate and a 34% reduction in Collision Rate. Our project can be seen at https://haoxuanxu1024.github.io/HCSG/.

Haoxuan Xu, Tianfu Li, Wenbo Chen +7

The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou 511453, China · Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China · University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China +2

Social Robot Navigation Vision-Language Navigation Human Trajectory Prediction

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May 12, 2026

JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction

Stochastic Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) using generative modeling has emerged as a significant area of research. Although state-of-the-art models excel in optimizing the accuracy of individual agents, they often struggle to generate predictions that are collectively compliant, leading to output trajectories marred by social collisions and environmental violations, thus rendering them impractical for real-world applications. To bridge this gap, we present JACoP: Joint Alignment for Compliant Multi-Agent Prediction, an innovative multi-stage framework that ensures scene-level plausibility. JACoP incorporates an Anchor-Based Agent-Centric Profiler for effective initial compliance filtering and employs a Markov Random Field (MRF) based aligner to formalize the joint selection for scene predictions. By representing inter-agent spatial and social costs as MRF energy potentials, we successfully infer and sample from the joint trajectory distribution, achieving prediction with optimal scene compliance. Comprehensive experiments show that JACoP not only achieves competitive accuracy, but also sets a new standard in reducing both environmental violations and social collisions, thereby confirming its ability to produce collectively feasible and practically applicable trajectory predictions.

Qingze Liu, Alen Mrdovic, Danrui Li +3

Rutgers University, New Brunswick · The College of New Jersey

Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Markov Random Fields Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction

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Apr 20, 2026

Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction

Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.

Yuxiang Zhao, Wei Huang, Haipeng Zeng +2

Sun Yat-sen University · Alibaba Group

Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction Human Behavior Prediction Human-Robot Interaction Agent Trajectory Analysis Trajectory Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction

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Mar 16, 2026

TrajMamba: An Ego-Motion-Guided Mamba Model for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction from an Egocentric Perspective

Future trajectory prediction of a tracked pedestrian from an egocentric perspective is a key task in areas such as autonomous driving and robot navigation. The challenge of this task lies in the complex dynamic relative motion between the ego-camera and the tracked pedestrian. To address this challenge, we propose an ego-motion-guided trajectory prediction network based on the Mamba model. Firstly, two Mamba models are used as encoders to extract pedestrian motion and ego-motion features from pedestrian movement and ego-vehicle movement, respectively. Then, an ego-motion guided Mamba decoder that explicitly models the relative motion between the pedestrian and the vehicle by integrating pedestrian motion features as historical context with ego-motion features as guiding cues to capture decoded features. Finally, the future trajectory is generated from the decoded features corresponding to the future timestamps. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, which achieves state-of-the-art performance on the PIE and JAAD datasets.

Yusheng Peng, Gaofeng Zhang, Liping Zheng

School of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China · School of Software, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230601, China

Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction

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Mar 9, 2026

AutoTraces: Autoregressive Trajectory Forecasting via Multimodal Large Language Models

We present AutoTraces, an autoregressive vision-language-trajectory model for robot trajectory forecasting in humam-populated environments, which harnesses the inherent reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to model complex human behaviors. In contrast to prior works that rely solely on textual representations, our key innovation lies in a novel trajectory tokenization scheme, which represents waypoints with point tokens as categorical and positional markers while encoding waypoint numerical values as corresponding point embeddings, seamlessly integrated into the LLM's space through a lightweight encoder-decoder architecture. This design preserves the LLM's native autoregressive generation mechanism while extending it to physical coordinate spaces, facilitates modeling of long-term interactions in trajectory data. We further introduce an automated chain-of-thought (CoT) generation mechanism that leverages a multimodal LLM to infer spatio-temporal relationships from visual observations and trajectory data, eliminating reliance on manual annotation. Through a two-stage training strategy, our AutoTraces achieves SOTA forecasting accuracy, particularly in long-horizon prediction, while exhibiting strong cross-scene generalization and supporting flexible-length forecasting.

Teng Wang, Yanting Lu, Ruize Wang

Robot Motion Prediction Trajectory Prediction Multimodal Trajectory Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Representation Learning

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Mar 4, 2026

SimpliHuMoN: Simplifying Human Motion Prediction

Human motion prediction combines the tasks of trajectory forecasting and human pose prediction. For each of the two tasks, specialized models have been developed. Combining these models for holistic human motion prediction is non-trivial, and recent methods have struggled to compete on established benchmarks for individual tasks. To address this, we propose a simple yet effective transformer-based model for human motion prediction. The model employs a stack of self-attention modules to effectively capture both spatial dependencies within a pose and temporal relationships across a motion sequence. This simple, streamlined, end-to-end model is sufficiently versatile to handle pose-only, trajectory-only, and combined prediction tasks without task-specific modifications. We demonstrate that this approach achieves state-of-the-art results across all tasks through extensive experiments on a wide range of benchmark datasets, including Human3.6M, AMASS, ETH-UCY, and 3DPW.

Aadya Agrawal, Alexander Schwing

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, USA

Human Motion Prediction Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction

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Feb 26, 2026

Robust Human Trajectory Prediction via Self-Supervised Skeleton Representation Learning

Human trajectory prediction plays a crucial role in applications such as autonomous navigation and video surveillance. While recent works have explored the integration of human skeleton sequences to complement trajectory information, skeleton data in real-world environments often suffer from missing joints caused by occlusions. These disturbances significantly degrade prediction accuracy, indicating the need for more robust skeleton representations. We propose a robust trajectory prediction method that incorporates a self-supervised skeleton representation model pretrained with masked autoencoding. Experimental results in occlusion-prone scenarios show that our method improves robustness to missing skeletal data without sacrificing prediction accuracy, and consistently outperforms baseline models in clean-to-moderate missingness regimes.

Taishu Arashima, Hiroshi Kera, Kazuhiko Kawamoto

Chiba University

Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction Learning with Missing Data Representation Learning

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Nov 15, 2025

EgoCogNav: Cognition-aware Human Egocentric Navigation

Modeling the cognitive and experiential factors of human navigation is central to deepening our understanding of human-environment interaction and to enabling safe social navigation and effective assistive wayfinding. Most existing methods focus on forecasting motions in fully observed scenes and often neglect human factors that capture how people feel and respond to space. To address this gap, we propose EgoCogNav, a multimodal egocentric navigation framework that jointly forecasts perceived path uncertainty, trajectories and head motion from egocentric video, gaze, and motion history. To facilitate research in the field, we introduce the Cognition-aware Egocentric Navigation (CEN) dataset consisting of 6 hours real-world egocentric recordings capturing diverse navigation behaviors in real-world scenarios. Experiments show that EgoCogNav learns the perceived uncertainty that strongly correlates with human-like behaviors such as scanning, hesitation, and backtracking while improving trajectory and head-motion forecasting on held-out navigation recordings.

Zhiwen Qiu, Ziang Liu, Wenqian Niu +2

Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA · Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA

Robot Navigation Egocentric Video Understanding Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction Spatial Reasoning

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Oct 16, 2025

NeMo-map: Neural Implicit Flow Fields for Spatio-Temporal Motion Mapping

Safe and efficient robot operation in complex human environments can benefit from good models of site-specific motion patterns. Maps of Dynamics (MoDs) provide such models by encoding statistical motion patterns in a map, but existing representations use discrete spatial sampling and typically require costly offline construction. We propose a continuous spatio-temporal MoD representation based on implicit neural functions that directly map coordinates to the parameters of a Semi-Wrapped Gaussian Mixture Model. This removes the need for discretization and imputation for unevenly sampled regions, enabling smooth generalization across both space and time. Evaluated on two public datasets with real-world people tracking data, our method achieves better accuracy of motion representation and smoother velocity distributions in sparse regions while still being computationally efficient, compared to available baselines. The proposed approach demonstrates a powerful and efficient way of modeling complex human motion patterns and high performance in the trajectory prediction downstream task. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/test-bai-cpu/nemo-map.

Yufei Zhu, Shih-Min Yang, Andrey Rudenko +3

Orebro University, Sweden · Technical University of Munich, Germany · Aalto University, Finland

Implicit Neural Representations Human Trajectory Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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Aug 4, 2025

User Trajectory Prediction Unifying Global and Local Temporal Information

Trajectory prediction is essential for formulating proactive strategies that anticipate user mobility and support advance preparation. Therefore, how to reduce the forecasting error in user trajectory prediction within an acceptable inference time arises as an interesting issue. However, trajectory data contains both global and local temporal information, complicating the extraction of the complete temporal pattern. Moreover, user behavior occurs over different time scales, increasing the difficulty of capturing behavioral patterns. To address these challenges, a trajectory prediction model based on multilayer perceptron (MLP), multi-scale convolutional neural network (MSCNN), and cross-attention (CA) is proposed. Specifically, MLP is used to extract the global temporal information of each feature. In parallel, MSCNN is employed to extract the local temporal information by modeling interactions among features within a local temporal range. Convolutional kernels with different sizes are used in MSCNN to capture temporal information at multiple resolutions, enhancing the model's adaptability to different behavioral patterns. Finally, CA is applied to fuse the global and local temporal information. Experimental results show that our model reduces mean squared error (MSE) by 5.04% and mean absolute error (MAE) by 4.35% compared with ModernTCN in 12-step prediction, while maintaining similar inference time.

Wei Hao, Bin Chong, Ronghua Ji +1

College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China · National Engineering Laboratory for Big Data Analysis and Applications, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Human Trajectory Prediction Trajectory Prediction Multiscale Time-Series Modeling Temporal Convolutional Networks

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