New Bounds

Self-improving agent workflows create an audit problem when the same controller can change both its behavior and the conditions under which that behavior is judged. We present GuardrailLoop, a simulation-based testbed that makes three operational contracts jointly testable: preservation of human-defined policy, compute accounting at every recorded execution prefix, and recovery of a specified scientific state after crashes. A hash-pinned policy fixes goals, scope, evaluation identity, budget, and release conditions; machine-directed evolution is restricted to a code-owned feature catalog and bounded knobs. The contribution is an executable boundary and an evaluation protocol that separates useful adaptation, state recovery, and repeated execution. In a paired 50-seed 2 x 2 study, round-stage growth changes target attainment by +1.00 and restricted mean compute to target by -56.97 simulated GPU-hours (95% paired-bootstrap interval [-58.91,-54.70]); idle growth has zero measured utility effect. Across 240 enumerated crash injections, all runs recover the defined outcome, but only 210 preserve the normalized trace: 30 pre-commit crashes repeat a planner call. Resource-drift, kill-switch, integrity, and output-guard matrices satisfy their specified checks. These findings show why successful outcome recovery is insufficient evidence of exactly-once execution. They establish conformance within one calibrated deterministic testbed, rather than general safety or real-world self-improvement.

Claims that Artificial Intelligence systems improve decisions, broaden access, reduce harm, or empower users can exceed what their evaluation establishes. Predictive performance alone does not establish safety, the presence of oversight does not establish meaningful control, and faster task completion does not establish understanding or choice. Evaluation must account for unreliable outputs and uneven performance, but also for overreliance, weakened recourse, and displaced human expertise. The harder questions are what the evidence warrants, which relations of power remain unexamined, and where measurement must stop. Assessing improvement requires examining what institutions value and the conditions AI is asked to address. AI is both revelation and intervention. Its use can reveal unmet human needs and assumptions about what matters. Once deployed, it can repair, compound, substitute for, or conceal existing failures. We develop a rupture test that evaluates deployment against explicit human and non-AI baselines. Drawing on Pope Leo XIV's Magnifica Humanitas, we examine dignity and the common good alongside questions of who owns AI infrastructure and who controls its use. These commitments shape judgments about improvement; evidence alone cannot establish moral or political legitimacy. We distinguish evidence-bounded deployment, which limits claims to what has been evaluated, from measurement-bounded governance, which records constraints that favorable evidence cannot override. RISE AI provides an evidence architecture for making bounded claims about Responsibility, Inclusivity, Safety, and Empowerment. It records what is claimed, who answers for it, what evidence supports it, and what would require the claim to be qualified, revised, or withdrawn.

An input may activate few hidden units even when different inputs collectively use an entire network. We study the statistical complexity of this input-dependent sparsity in the one-hidden-layer ReLU model of Awasthi et al. (COLT 2024). For width $s$, at most $k$ active units per input, and effective weight and bias bounds $W,B$, every size-$m$ sample in the class's fixed radius-$R$ input domain satisfies $\mathcal{R}(S)\le CWR\min\{k,\sqrt{sk/m}\log^{3/2}(2m)\}+kB/\sqrt m$. A support-preserving cover and a single normalized chaining argument remove the previous explicit dimension factor, up to logarithms. Lower bounds on appropriate i.i.d. marginals match up to those logarithms, showing how changing active units across inputs retains a width dependence. The input domain matters: zero-bias networks sparse on the entire ball have at most $2k$ nonzero units and complexity $O(kWR/\sqrt m)$, whereas bias bounds comparable to $WR$ restore the worst-case rate on that same domain in only logarithmic dimension. A spherical-cap construction proves the latter claim without assuming sparsity merely on the sampling support. For a specified normalized bounded loss and biases comparable to $WR$, we also obtain agnostic minimax excess-risk bounds of order $\min\{1,\sqrt{s/(km)}\}$ up to logarithms.

An image editor may satisfy every regional plausibility constraint separately even when no single latent explanation fits the complete output. We formalize this local-to-global failure using a common witness grade and witness nerve. The framework separates auditing from causal identification: shared exogeneity alone allows every coupling of the regime marginals, whereas an externally justified witness relation yields sharp partial-identification bounds for prespecified image features. Helly-type arguments provide short incompatibility certificates for quasiconvex losses, heterogeneous action strata, and finite witness atlases; a blocker-hypergraph formula gives exact repair counts. Simultaneous confidence regions for the regime marginals give finite-sample outer coverage of the complete identified interval. Controlled MNIST, Morpho-MNIST, and smallNORB studies demonstrate the predicted local-global separation, while synthetic experiments test sharp bounds, certificate recovery, and structured computation. The method audits a declared feature relation and does not identify unrestricted pixel-level counterfactuals.

Probabilities of causation (PoCs) characterize individual causal responses that cannot be directly observed and therefore generally require partial identification. Tian and Pearl first derived theoretically sharp bounds for binary PoCs, including the probability of necessity (PN), the probability of sufficiency (PS), and the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS). Mueller et al. subsequently tightened the bounds for binary PNS by incorporating causal information encoded in covariates and mediators. More recently, Li and Pearl, as well as Shu et al., extended PoCs to multivalued settings and derived corresponding theoretical bounds. These developments naturally raise the question of whether additional causal knowledge can further tighten the bounds in multivalued settings. This paper addresses this question by deriving tighter bounds for multivalued PoCs through the incorporation of causal information encoded in covariates and mediators. We illustrate the theoretical results with toy examples, while simulation studies further demonstrate that the proposed bounds are tighter than existing nonbinary bounds.

GPU language comparisons are almost always run on tiled dense linear algebra, where every toolchain is good and the differences are small. We implement the same hash-blocked TSDF fusion kernel in CUDA C++, in Rust through NVIDIA's cuda-oxide, and in Triton, and measure it on a workload with the opposite character: an open-addressed hash table with compare-exchange insertion, data-dependent per-lane probe depth, and contended scatter. The result is a split. On the regular stage, which walks a truncation band and accumulates, all three languages land within a small factor of each other. On the irregular stage, which probes and inserts, Rust stays close to hand-written CUDA C++ while Triton is more than an order of magnitude slower. Language choice is nearly free on the work that is usually benchmarked and expensive on the work that is not. We attribute both gaps to specific things the languages cannot express, not to ratios. Triton's cost follows from a probe loop that must run to a compile-time bound and from tl.atomic_cas taking no mask, which forces a scratch structure with no counterpart in CUDA. Rust's cost was invisible in every instruction count: its kernel issues fewer instructions, fewer compare-exchanges and fewer registers at identical occupancy, yet was slower. Hardware counters located it in L1 residency. A GPU-scope atomic load must be coherent across SMs, no NVIDIA L1 is, so the type-correct way to read a shared location bypasses the cache on every access. Triton's bounded probe is also a correctness problem for fusion: at load factors an ordinary depth trajectory reaches, it silently discards blocks and the reconstruction loses patches of surface with nothing reported. We also report a defect found and fixed in cuda-oxide itself, now merged upstream: its scoped atomic load and store could not be called at all in the build mode that produces real kernels.

Local Differential Privacy (LDP) provides strong privacy guarantees for collecting numerical data. A fundamental challenge, however, is that existing LDP mechanisms require a predefined data domain, which is often unknown in practice. This lack of prior knowledge creates a critical dilemma for the data collector: if the chosen domain is too narrow, values outside the range are clipped, leading to information loss. Conversely, if the domain is too wide, excessive noise is added during the privatization process, which degrades the quality of collected data. This highlights the need for methods that can dynamically estimate the data domain. In this work, we propose an adaptive LDP framework that addresses this problem. In our method, each user sends two pieces of information: their perturbed numerical data, and a privatized signal indicating if their original value was clipped by the current domain. By aggregating these signals, our proposed method, Adaptive Bounding of Clipping regions (ABC) method, iteratively adjusts the domain to fit the underlying data distribution without prior knowledge. Our theoretical analysis shows that the estimated data domain converges to an appropriate range. In the empirical evaluation, the results demonstrate that our framework significantly improves the quality of numerical data collection across various datasets and underlying LDP mechanisms. We also show that the estimated range successfully converges in practice and our approach is robust to its hyperparameters through comprehensive ablation studies.

High-polyphony symbolic music is increasingly used in generation, analysis, and arrangement, yet many downstream tasks require bounded representations with fixed tracks or slots. Converting richly orchestrated scores into compact forms is therefore necessary, but existing approaches relying on heuristic simplification or generic representation-space reduction often fail to preserve structural roles, orchestration compatibility, and playability under strict budgets. To address the issue, this study reformulates the compression problem as a fixed-budget structured routing problem and proposes Unbalanced Optimal Transport for Information Routing (UOT-IR), a training-free framework based on constrained unbalanced optimal transport. UOT-IR combines an orchestration prior, adaptive marginal relaxation, temporal decoding, and playability-aware projection to produce compact and musically coherent bounded representations. This work further studies two practical settings under the same slot budget: template standardization, which maps each input to a predefined bounded template, and adaptive preservation, which retains representative content without assuming an external template. Experiments on the SymphonyNet corpus show that UOT-IR delivers strong overall performance across both settings, including the best Note-F1 in adaptive preservation (0.9120), together with the lowest structural cost (14.7165) and bad structural confusion rate (0.3406) in template standardization. This work establishes a principled paradigm for fixed-budget symbolic music compression, offering a practical path toward compact, structured, and musically coherent symbolic representations.

We derive bounds for the volume of tubular neighbourhoods of smooth Pfaffian hypersurfaces, generalising known results for algebraic varieties. The bounds are given in terms of the Pfaffian format of the defining functions. As an application, we obtain tail bounds on the probability distribution of a condition number measuring the robustness of neural network classifiers with Pfaffian activation functions, in both the uniform and Gaussian settings. In the special case of single-hidden-layer sigmoid networks with rational weights, we derive polynomial-in-width bounds for tubular neighbourhoods of the decision boundary.

In this work, we investigate the fixed-architecture neural network approximation with explicit parameter bounds and elementary activations. While prior work demonstrated super-expressive approximation using fixed-size networks, they lack quantitative and non-asymptotic characterizations of parameter magnitude with respect to the approximation error. We resolve this issue by introducing the Chinese Remainder Theorem as a constructive encoding mechanism. For Lipschitz continuous functions on $[0,1]^D$, we construct a width-$\max\{D,4\}$, depth-$5$ network with explicit parameter-error trade-offs. For Hölder-smooth functions in $C^{r,γ}_A\left([0,1]^D\right)$, our fixed network of width $\max\{2D,\ D+5N+1\}$ and depth $r + 9$ achieves the parameter magnitude $\mathcal{P}$ bounded by $\log_2 \mathcal{P}=\mathcal{O}\bigl(\varepsilon^{-2D/(r+γ)}\log(1/\varepsilon)\bigr)$. This is the dual result compared to those in the parameter-bounded and architecture-unbounded paradigm.

There has been significant recent progress in algorithms for approximation of Nash equilibrium in large two-player zero-sum imperfect-information games and exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer strategic-form games. While counterfactual regret minimization and fictitious play are scalable to large games and have convergence guarantees in two-player zero-sum games, they do not guarantee convergence to Nash equilibrium in multiplayer games. Recently, an approach has been presented for exact computation of Nash equilibrium in multiplayer imperfect-information games that solves a quadratically constrained program based on a nonlinear complementarity problem formulation derived from the sequence-form game representation. This formulation was solved using Gurobi's nonconvex quadratic solver, which employs spatial branch-and-bound to iteratively refine variable bounds by solving convex relaxations of bilinear terms via McCormick envelopes. During presolve, Gurobi introduces auxiliary variables and, in some cases, binary variables, leading to an internal MIQCP reformulation. This approach was demonstrated to outperform prior algorithms from the Gambit software suite and quickly solve three-player Kuhn poker after removal of dominated actions; however, the algorithm was not able to solve the full version of the game within 24 hours. In this paper, we derive finite bounds on slack and multiplier variables in the nonlinear complementarity formulation. These bounds strengthen the convex relaxations used within spatial branch-and-bound and lead to substantial computational improvements. We demonstrate the impact of the proposed bounds on exact Nash equilibrium computation in three-player Kuhn poker.

We study the last iterate of the stochastic subgradient method for one-dimensional convex Lipschitz objectives. For a fixed horizon $n$, we consider the standard fixed stepsizes $η=Θ(1/\sqrt n)$. We prove that, for such stepsize policies, under additive i.i.d. subgradient noise with uniformly bounded variance, the last iterate features an optimization error of order $1/\sqrt n$, thereby removing the extra $(\log n)$ factor present in existing generic bounds. On the other hand, we show that without the i.i.d. assumption, the optimization error can be of order $(\log n)/\sqrt n$. Thus, under the uniformly bounded variance assumption alone, the last iterate of SsGM is suboptimal even in dimension one, resolving negatively an open problem posed in Koren and Segal, COLT, 2020.

Misalignment can change how information moves from an AI agent to a human user. We model this as an information advantage: the AI agent observes the world state, while the human receiver only knows a prior and must act after seeing the agent's signal. A strategic AI sender may withhold evidence or garble information in order to steer the human's decision. We ask how much useful information can still reach the human when the AI optimizes a misaligned objective. We study a Bayesian persuasion model in which the world state is a bit string, the human receiver wants to guess the bits correctly, and a single AI sender wants the receiver to guess as many bits as possible as $1$. For a prior $μ$, let $R_0(μ)$ be the receiver's utility from using only the prior, and let $R_{\max}(μ)$ be the largest receiver utility among signaling schemes that are optimal for the sender. We prove $R_{\max}(μ)/R_0(μ)\leq 3/2$. This bound improves for priors close to the independent product prior with the same marginals: if $μ(x)\geq (1-η)π_μ(x)$ for every state $x$, then $R_{\max}(μ)\leq R_0(μ)+ηn$. We also give a six-bit prior for which $R_{\max}(μ)/R_0(μ)=39/31>5/4$, so no universal $5/4$ bound is possible.

In this work, we investigate new activation functions for achieving arbitrary-accuracy Sobolev approximation by fixed-size neural networks. We first show that any function in $W^{2,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ can be approximated with arbitrary accuracy, measured in the $W^{1,\infty}$-norm, by a fixed-size neural network using the Elementary Universal Activation Function ($\mathrm{EUAF}$). To extend this result to $W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ for $s\in\mathbb{N}$, we introduce a smooth activation $\mathrm{DUAF}_{\infty}$ from the family of Differentiable Universal Activation Functions ($\mathrm{DUAF}_n$). We prove that any function in $W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ can be approximated with arbitrary accuracy in the $W^{s-1,\infty}$-norm by a fixed-size $\mathrm{DUAF}_{\infty}$-activated network. We further construct sigmoidal variants $\widetilde{\mathrm{DUAF}}_n$ and show that, for every $1\leq s\leq n$, fixed-size $\widetilde{\mathrm{DUAF}}_n$-activated networks still approximate any $f\in W^{s,\infty}((a,b)^d)$ with arbitrary accuracy in the $W^{s-1,\infty}$-norm. In all these results, the width and depth bounds are computed explicitly, and the proposed activations are elementary.

Physics-informed machine learning (PIML) integrates mechanistic knowledge, typically in the form of partial differential equations (PDE), into data-driven models. Despite strong empirical performance, its statistical generalisation properties remain poorly understood, particularly in the regression setting with unbounded losses. Existing analyses rely on approximation or stability arguments and do not fully capture how physical structure influences generalisation from finite data. In this work, we develop a PAC-Bayesian framework for PIML that provides high-probability generalisation guarantees in the presence of unbounded losses. We adopt a multi-task perspective that jointly treats data fidelity, PDE residuals, initial and boundary conditions, avoiding the looseness induced by standard union-bound approaches. Our analysis leverages the structure of physics-informed objectives to derive novel bounds where the complexity scales with input-gradient norms of the losses, revealing a direct link between physical regularity and generalisation. We instantiate this framework under Sobolev and Poincaré-type assumptions, yielding two classes of bounds that trade off statistical complexity and smoothness in different regimes. Building on these results, we propose a self-bounding-aware learning algorithm that directly optimises tractable surrogates of the derived bounds, along with a practical procedure to estimate the associated constants in realistic settings. Empirical evaluations on standard PDE benchmarks demonstrate that our bounds are non-vacuous, significantly tighter than union-bound baselines, and can be effectively minimised during training. Overall, our results provide a principled statistical foundation for the generalisation of physics-informed models.

Large-scale text-to-image foundation models have achieved remarkable visual realism, yet generating human images with correct anatomical structures remains challenging. Existing approaches enforce anatomical constraints through part-specific modules or localized loss weighting during supervised fine-tuning on high-quality human photos, but such datasets are limited and often provide ambiguous optimization signals due to confounding factors such as lighting, pose, and background. Preference-based alignment offers an alternative, but standard Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) treats all pixels equally and therefore fails to exploit the localized nature of anatomical artifacts. To address this, we propose the framework of Alignment via Synthetic Anatomical Preference (ASAP), which constructs controlled preference pairs through a localized degradation mechanism applied to high-fidelity human images. This mechanism performs a controlled experiment on images by introducing explicit anatomical errors in targeted regions while preserving the remaining content. With this mechanism, we create the Human Anatomical Preference (HAP) dataset with over 10K curated pairs for effective anatomical alignment of text-to-image human image generative models. To better leverage the locality of these controlled preference pairs, we introduce a localized and margin-bounded variant of DPO that prioritizes optimization in targeted anatomical regions while enforcing a finite preference margin to prevent over-optimization and preserve global semantics. We further introduce HAF-Bench, a benchmark for systematic evaluation of anatomical fidelity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ASAP consistently reduces anatomical errors across multiple foundation models while maintaining overall image quality.

A fuzzy Boolean function is a map $f:\cube^n\to [0,1]$, where $n\in\mathbb N$. We introduce and compare three ways of saying that such a function has bounded complexity. The first is a sampling property: the value $f(x)$ can be recovered, up to small error and with high probability, from the values of a bounded number of randomly chosen coordinates of $x$. We call this the holographic property. The second is a structural property: $f$ is uniformly close to a bounded-degree polynomial in boundedly many bounded linear coordinate forms. The third is computational: $f$ is uniformly close to the output of a neural network with a bounded number of non-input neurons, bounded Lipschitz activation functions and bounded incoming weights. We prove that these three properties are equivalent up to quantitative changes of the parameters. The implication from holography to polynomial structure uses a variant of a weak version of hypergraph regularity.

We provide counterexamples to the unimodal minimal filling architecture conjecture for polynomial neural networks (PNNs) with power activation functions. Fixing the input and output widths, the conjecture states that any minimal filling architecture has unimodal widths for the hidden layers. We found counterexamples via a frontier search, recursive dimension bounds on neurovarieties, and symbolic computation. Notably, several subarchitectures of our main example exhibit large defect, in contrast with the predominantly small-defect behavior observed in prior literature.

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on the choice of martingale updates, and many existing constructions do not exploit prior information about plausible data-generating distributions or mean values. We propose a Bayes-assisted framework that uses a Bayesian working predictive model to adaptively construct confidence sequences. For each candidate mean and time point, the predictive distribution selects, among valid one-step martingale factors, the update maximising predictive expected log-growth; validity is therefore preserved even when the prior or working model is misspecified. We prove that if the predictive distribution is Wasserstein-consistent, the resulting procedure is asymptotically log-optimal, matching the per-sample log-growth of an oracle procedure with access to the true distribution. We instantiate the framework using robust predictives based on Dirichlet-process mixtures and Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood. Experiments on synthetic data, sequential best-arm identification for LLM evaluation, and prediction-powered inference show that informative priors can substantially reduce confidence-sequence width and sampling effort while retaining anytime-valid coverage.

Bounded fitting is an attractive paradigm for learning logical formulas from labeled data examples that offers PAC-style generalization guarantees and can often be implemented leveraging SAT solvers. It has been successfully applied to learning concepts of the description logic ALC. We study bounded fitting for learning concepts in expressive description logics that extend ALC with inverse roles, qualified number restrictions, and feature comparisons. We investigate under which conditions bounded fitting keeps its favorable theoretical properties in this setting, and implement it using a SAT solver. We compare our tool with state-of-the-art concept learners with encouraging results, demonstrating that it is a practical approach to expressive concept learning.

We study query time bounds for the fundamental problem of estimating the kernel mean $\frac1{|X|}\sum_{x\in X}\mathbf{k}(x,y)$ of a query $y$ in a finite dataset $X\subset\mathbb{R}^d$ up to a prescribed additive error $\varepsilon$. The best known bounds for the Gaussian kernel are $O(d/\varepsilon^2)$, $\widetilde O(d+1/\varepsilon^4)$, and $\widetilde O(d+Δ^2/\varepsilon^2)$, where $Δ$ is the diameter of a region containing the points. We prove the new bound $\tilde O(d+\varepsilonΔ^2+1/\varepsilon^3)$, which improves over the previous ones in regimes with small error $\varepsilon$ and intermediate diameter $Δ$. At the center of our proof is a new fast spherical embedding theorem in the sense introduced by Bartal, Recht and Schulman (2011), which limits the embedded data diameter while preserving local Euclidean distances and avoiding ``distance collapse'' at larger scales. This fast embedding theorem may be of independent interest.

The Zarankiewicz number $\textbf{Z}(m, n, s, t)$ is the maximum number of edges in a bipartite graph $G_{m, n}$ such that there is no complete $K_{s, t}$ bipartite subgraph. We determine for the first time the exact values of three Zarankiewicz numbers: $\textbf{Z}(11, 21, 3, 3)=116$, $\textbf{Z}(11, 22, 3, 3)=121$, and $\textbf{Z}(12, 22, 3, 3)=132$. We further establish lower bounds for 41 more Zarankiewicz numbers, including several that are within one edge of the best known upper bound, and we match the established value in four more closed cases. Our results are obtained using OpenEvolve, an open-source evolutionary algorithm based on Large Language Models (LLMs) that iteratively improves algorithms for generating mathematical constructions by optimizing a reward signal which we tailored for this specific problem. These findings provide new extremal graph constructions and demonstrate the potential of LLM-guided evolutionary search to contribute to mathematical research. In addition to presenting the resulting constructions, we report the generation algorithms produced, describe the relevant implementation details, and provide our computational costs. Our costs are remarkably low, at less than $30 for each Zarankiewicz parameter combination, showing that LLM-guided evolutionary search can be an inexpensive, reproducible, and accessible tool for discovering new combinatorial constructions.

In Orabona and Pál [2016], we introduced the shifted KT potentials, to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the parameter-free learning with expert bound. In this short technical note, I show that this is equivalent to changing the prior in the Krichevsky--Trofimov algorithm. Then, I show how to use the same idea to remove the $\ln \ln T$ factor in the data-independent bound for the Squint algorithm.

We study the dimension and identifiability of neurovarieties associated to polynomial neural networks. We give an independent geometric proof that the linear bounds $d_i\geq 2n_i-1$ on the activation degrees imply non defectiveness for any number of outputs, a dimension statement previously obtained from finite identifiability. The proof is based on a direct analysis of the differential of the parameterization. We also investigate secant and Grassmann-secant obstructions outside this range and prove global identifiability for multi-output architectures under the same degree bounds.