Language Model Calibration

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43 papers in the last four weeks, up 330% on the four weeks before. 0.4% of all new papers.

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Reliability-Oriented Multilingual Orthopedic Diagnosis: A Domain-Adaptive Modeling and a Conceptual Validation Framework
May 4, 2026Danish Ali, Li Xiaojian, Sundas Iqbal +1Multilingual Language Model Evaluation Healthcare
School of Computer Science, Wuhan University, China · School of Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), China · Department of Orthopedic, Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Pakistan
What Single-Prompt Accuracy Misses: A Multi-Variant Reliability Audit of Language Models
May 3, 2026Ranit Karmakar, Jayita ChatterjeeLLM Evaluation Language Model Calibration
Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115 · Boston, MA 02134
Only Say What You Know: Calibration-Aware Generation for Long-Form Factuality
May 3, 2026Wen Luo, Guangyue Peng, Liang Wang +7Long-Form Document Generation LLM Hallucination Mitigation
State Key Laboratory of Multimedia Information Processing, School of Computer Science, Peking University Research Asia · MSRA · Microsoft
Geometry-Calibrated Conformal Abstention for Language Models
Apr 30, 2026Rui Xu, Yi Chen, Sihong Xie +1Uncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Information Hub, AI Thrust Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
LLMs Capture Emotion Labels, Not Emotion Uncertainty: Distributional Analysis and Calibration of Human-LLM Judgment Gaps
Apr 30, 2026Keito Inoshita, Xiaokang Zhou, Akira Kawai +1LLM Evaluation Annotator Disagreement
Faculty of Business and Commerce, Kansai University, Osaka, Japan · Faculty of Business Data Science, Kansai University, Osaka, Japan · RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project, Tokyo, Japan +2
Authority Inversion in LLM-Mediated Ubiquitous Systems: When Models Trust Users Over Sensors
Apr 28, 2026Long Zhang, Zi-bo Qin, Wei-neng ChenKnowledge Conflicts in Language Models LLM Auditing
School of Computer Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China
Distilling Self-Consistency into Verbal Confidence: A Pre-Registered Negative Result and Post-Hoc Rescue on Gemma 3 4B
Apr 27, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliSupervised Fine-Tuning Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia
Continual Calibration: Coverage Can Collapse Before Accuracy in Lifelong LLM Fine-Tuning
Apr 27, 2026Ibne Farabi Shihab, Sanjeda Akter, Anuj SharmaContinual Learning for LLMs Conformal Prediction
Department of Computer Science, Iowa State University · Department of Civil, Construction & Environmental Engineering, Iowa State University
Revisiting Greedy Decoding for Visual Question Answering: A Calibration Perspective
Apr 25, 2026Boqi Chen, Xudong Liu, Yunke Ao +1Visual Question Answering Language Model Calibration
1ETH Zurich · University of Toronto · 3MBZUAI
Process Supervision of Confidence Margin for Calibrated LLM Reasoning
Apr 25, 2026Liaoyaqi Wang, Chunsheng Zuo, William Jurayj +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models RL for Language Model Reasoning
Johns Hopkins University
Calibration Drift Under Reasoning: How Chain-of-Thought Budgets Induce Overconfidence in Large Language Models
Apr 24, 2026Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Harshit R. HiremathConfidence Estimation in Language Models CoT Reasoning
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi · Department of Computer Science and Business System SG Balekundri Institute of Technology, Belagavi
Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
Apr 21, 2026Thomas Zollo, Jimmy Wang, Richard ZemelConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Columbia University
Distillation Traps and Guards: A Calibration Knob for LLM Distillability
Apr 21, 2026Weixiao Zhan, Yongcheng Jing, Leszek Rutkowski +1Language Model Calibration Language Model Distillation
Generative AI Lab, College of Computing and Data Science Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 · Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences, AGH University of Krakow, 30-059 Kraków, and the SAN University, 90-113, Łód´z, Poland
PsychBench: Auditing Epidemiological Fidelity in Large Language Model Mental Health Simulations
Apr 19, 2026Patrick KeoughHealthcare LLM Auditing
Independent Researcher Bremerton, Washington, USA
Calibrated? Not for Everyone: How Sexual Orientation and Religious Markers Distort LLM Accuracy and Confidence in Medical QA
Apr 19, 2026Alberto Testoni, Iacer CalixtoHealthcare Social Bias in Language Models
Department of Medical Informatics, Amsterdam University Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. · Amsterdam Public Health, Methodology, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Instinct vs. Reflection: Unifying Token and Verbalized Confidence in Multimodal Large Models
Apr 19, 2026Yunkai Dang, Yifan Jiang, Yizhu Jiang +3Selective Prediction Confidence Estimation in Language Models
School of Artificial Intelligence, Nanjing University.
Calibrating Model-Based Evaluation Metrics for Summarization
Apr 19, 2026Hongye Liu, Dhanajit Brahma, Ricardo HenaoLanguage Model Calibration Summarization Evaluation
Duke University
The Illusion of Certainty: Decoupling Capability and Calibration in On-Policy Distillation
Apr 18, 2026Jiaxin Zhang, Xiangyu Peng, Qinglin Chen +3On-Policy Self-Distillation Language Model Calibration
Salesforce AI Research
Beyond Surface Statistics: Robust Conformal Prediction for LLMs via Internal Representations
Apr 17, 2026Yanli Wang, Peng Kuang, Xiaoyu Han +2Confidence Estimation in Language Models Conformal Prediction
Imperial College London · Zhejiang University · University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign +1
The Metacognitive Monitoring Battery: A Cross-Domain Benchmark for LLM Self-Monitoring
Apr 17, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliLLM Evaluation Language Model Calibration
Independent Researcher Melbourne, Australia
CURA: Clinical Uncertainty Risk Alignment for Language Model-Based Risk Prediction
Apr 16, 2026Sizhe Wang, Ziqi Xu, Claire Najjuuko +2Language Model Calibration LLM Uncertainty Estimation
Washington University in St. Louis
Robust Ultra Low-Bit Post-Training Quantization via Stable Diagonal Curvature Estimate
Apr 15, 2026Jaemin Kim, Sungkyun Kim, Junyeol Lee +1LLM Quantization Language Model Calibration
Seoul National University · Hanyang University
Less Data Approximates More: Earning Faithful Confidence in High-Stakes Domains
Apr 9, 2026Haokai Ma, Lee Yan Zhen, Gang Yang +4RL for Language Models Reinforcement Learning
National University of Singapore, Singapore · Singapore Management University, Singapore
Persona Matters: Effects of Activation Steering on Short Answer Generation and Scoring
Apr 8, 2026Yongchao Wu, Aron HenrikssonOpen-Ended Generation Language Model Steering
Stockholm University, NOD-huset, Borgarfjordsgatan 12, 16455 Stockholm, Sweden
Overconfidence and Calibration in Medical VQA: Empirical Findings and Hallucination-Aware Mitigation
Apr 2, 2026Ji Young Byun, Young-Jin Park, Jean-Philippe Corbeil +1Vision-Language Models VLM Hallucination
Johns Hopkins University, School of Medicine · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Microsoft Healthcare & Life Sciences
Do LLMs Know What They Know? Measuring Metacognitive Efficiency with Signal Detection Theory
Mar 26, 2026Jon-Paul CacioliConfidence Estimation in Language Models Language Model Calibration
Independent Researcher Melbourne, Australia
On Calibration of Large Language Models: From Response To Capability
Feb 14, 2026Sin-Han Yang, Cheng-Kuang Wu, Chieh-Yen Lin +3LLM Evaluation Confidence Estimation in Language Models
Appier AI Research · National Taiwan University
When Agents Disagree With Themselves: Behavioral Consistency as an Uncertainty Signal for LLM Agents
Feb 12, 2026Aman MehtaAI Agent Reliability Selective Prediction
Snowflake AI Research
Scalable Delphi: Large Language Models for Structured Risk Estimation
Feb 9, 2026Tobias Lorenz, Mario FritzLanguage Model Calibration
CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany
Bayesian-LoRA: Probabilistic Low-Rank Adaptation of Large Language Models
Jan 28, 2026Moule Lin, Shuhao Guan, Andrea Patane +2Bayesian Neural Networks Confidence Estimation in Language Models
School of Computer Science and Statistics, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland and Lero the Research Ireland Centre for Software, Ireland · School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

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Reliability-Oriented Multilingual Orthopedic Diagnosis: A Domain-Adaptive Modeling and a Conceptual Validation Framework

Danish Ali, Li Xiaojian, Sundas Iqbal, Farrukh Zaidi

School of Computer Science, Wuhan University, China · School of Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), China · Department of Orthopedic, Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Pakistan

Multilingual Language Model Evaluation Healthcare Domain Adaptation Medical Diagnosis Language Model Calibration Clinical Language Model Evaluation+1

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Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed for clinical decision support including multilingual diagnosis in low-resource settings. However, their reliability, calibration and safety characteristics remain insufficiently understood for structured, high-risk tasks. We present a system-level analysis of multilingual orthopedic diagnosis from free-text clinical notes in English, Hindi and Punjabi. We evaluate three modeling regimes: (i) task-aligned multilingual transformer encoders, (ii) a task-fine-tuned baseline (DistilBERT), and (iii) a domain-adaptive architecture tailored to orthopedic text (IndicBERT-HPA). These models are compared with zero-shot, instruction-tuned LLMs to assess suitability for structured diagnostic classification. Results indicate that while LLMs exhibit strong linguistic fluency, they show unstable calibration and reduced reliability under structured multilingual conditions, particularly in low-resource languages. These findings are specific to zero-shot evaluation and do not imply limitations of fine-tuned models. Domain-adaptive specialization substantially improves cross-lingual discrimination and confidence behavior. IndicBERT-HPA, with language-specific orthopedic adapter heads achieves consistently strong performance across six diagnostic categories and more predictable deployment characteristics than task-only adaptation. Building on these observations, we outline a conceptual deterministic agent-based validation framework for future implementation, formalizing evidence checks, language-sensitive validation and conservative human-in-the-loop gating. Reliable multilingual clinical decision support requires specialized architecture, explicit reliability analysis, and structured validation for safety-critical systems.

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Latest papers 247