Expectation-Maximization

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5 papers in the last 28 days · 0.1% of indexed attention

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Period ending 2026-09-21

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A weekly snapshot of new work published in Expectation-Maximization.

33 papers

Latest in Expectation-Maximization

Sep 21, 2026cs.LG

Adaptive Forgetting for Nonstationary Optimization: Towards Robust EEG Decoding

Electroencephalography (EEG) provides non-invasive monitoring of brain activity and is widely used in emotion recognition, motor imagery and sleep staging. Although within-subject decoding has achieved considerable progress, cross-subject generalization remains a central challenge in practical applications. EEG decoders are typically trained with Adam/AdamW under a fixed second-moment decay coefficient, even though cross-subject learning involves low signal-to-noise ratios, subject variability, and gradient nonstationarity. A fixed coefficient implicitly assumes that gradient statistics are homogeneous across layers and time, which can limit model's adaptability to cross-subject EEG signals and degrade generalization. To address these issues, we propose AFOR, a tensor-wise adaptive optimizer that converts the fixed second-moment decay coefficient into a dynamic coefficient estimated online from local gradient state. AFOR combines a Residual-Alignment Signal Scorer (RASS) and an Adaptive Forgetting Controller (AFC). RASS summarizes local gradient residuals and directional agreement into a signal-quality score, and AFC maps this score through self-referential normalization to a bounded per-step decay coefficient, with cumulative-product initialization correction maintaining consistency under time-varying decay. Under a strict cross-subject protocol on three EEG benchmarks that cover three representative fields, AFOR achieves the best average performance among the compared optimizers, improving the mean test accuracy over Adam by 3.00%, 2.07%, and 4.38%, respectively.
Hongyu Zhu, Lin Chen, Jing Chen +2
Sep 17, 2026cs.LG

Training Neural Networks to Approach the Optimum Bayes Estimator in Dense Multi-Emitter Localization

We train neural networks on synthesized frames to approach the optimum Bayes estimator for dense emitter localization. The result justifies the future work on training neural networks to achieve high-throughput large-FOV super spatiotemporal resolution SMLM.
Yi Sun, Mona Sharifi, Muzna Yumman
Sep 15, 2026cs.LG

High-Performance Tensor Formulation of the Viterbi Algorithm for Hidden Semi-Markov Models

Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs) are fundamental probabilistic models widely adopted across diverse domains, from computational biology to finance and signal processing. The Viterbi algorithm decodes the most likely state sequence given an HSMM and can be applied iteratively for ab initio model learning. However, existing Viterbi implementations remain sequential, and GPU-accelerated solutions are entirely absent, making HSMM decoding impractical for large-scale workloads. We present a tensor-based formulation of the Viterbi algorithm for HSMMs, restructuring the inner loops into tensor operations that naturally map onto SIMD units and massively parallel architectures. Building on this formulation, we provide optimized implementations spanning single- and multi-core CPUs, and, for the first time, GPU. Experimental evaluation demonstrates speedups of up to 14x on a single core, over 200x with multi-core, and over 570x on GPU over the state-of-the-art sequential baseline, establishing a new performance baseline for large-scale HSMM decoding.
Lorenzo Piarulli, Elia Belli, Daniele De Sensi
Sep 14, 2026cs.LG

Impute-EM: Native Mixed-State Diffusion Models for Heterogeneous Data Imputation

Missing values are ubiquitous in heterogeneous data mining, where numerical, categorical, and binary variables often coexist. Many imputation methods, especially diffusion-based ones, treat discrete variables through continuous surrogates such as one-hot relaxations rather than modeling them natively. This creates a mismatch between the model state space and the mixed discrete and continuous structure of the data. We propose Impute-EM, an Expectation Maximization style framework that alternates between imputing missing entries with the current model and refitting a diffusion backbone on completed data. We instantiate Impute-EM with native mixed-state diffusion backbones for heterogeneous data, combining Gaussian and masked categorical components without one-hot relaxations. In exact settings, we characterize the update and show that the observed mask-indexed marginals match the targets at the limit, while making explicit that the full data distribution is generally non-identifiable from incomplete observations alone. Empirically, Impute-EM delivers the best distributional fidelity on mixed-type tabular imputation, on which downstream modeling relies, with text imputation serving as a controlled validation of the native discrete backbone.
Sergei Kholkin, Kirill Sokolov, Dmitry Baranchuk +2
Sep 14, 2026cs.IT

Receiver-Surface Hit Patterns via Legendre Approximation for Molecular Signal Detection

Detecting whether a transmitter is actively communicating with a receiver is a fundamental problem in molecular communications. A spherical receiver may measure not only the number and arrival times of absorbed molecules, but also their absorption locations on the receiver surface. These locations contain a directional signature that is lost in count-only detection. In this letter, we develop a molecular signal detector based on a Legendre polynomial expansion of the receiver-surface hit density and extend it to a Legendre-based Viterbi sequence detector. By exploiting the surface-level directional signature of molecular arrivals, the proposed detectors provide geometry-aware, efficient, and better-performing alternatives to count-only detection.
Yasin Bastug, Erencem Ozbey, H. Birkan Yilmaz
Aug 30, 2026cs.LG

Structure Aware Neural Architecture Search for Mixture of Experts

Neural Architecture Search (NAS) has so far rarely been applied to Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models, and existing MoE designs leave the alignment between experts and the structure of the data to emerge on its own. We propose an architecture search framework that makes this alignment an explicit search variable: the assignment of data clusters to experts is optimised jointly with the per-expert architectures. We cast the joint problem as a cluster-aware likelihood maximisation, show that it coincides with the incomplete-data maximum likelihood of a latent-variable mixture, and solve it by a generalised Expectation-Maximisation procedure whose otherwise intractable expert-quality term is supplied by an adaptively refined surrogate. We prove that the iterates converge whenever the surrogate errors are summable, and that at every limit point no candidate the search produces improves the true objective. On a heterogeneous image-classification mixture the method recovers the underlying domain partition on 95% of clusters without ever observing domain labels, and on that benchmark and a four-domain time-series forecasting one alike it outperforms the MoE and NAS baselines that likewise use no label information.
Petr Babkin, Oleg Bakhteev
Jul 30, 2026cs.LG

Encryption-Compatible Clustered Federated Learning via Distributed Expectation-Maximization over Metadata

Clustered Federated Learning (CFL) addresses data heterogeneity in federated settings by grouping clients with similar data distributions to enable effective training. Existing methods face a trade-off between privacy preservation, communication cost, and computational efficiency. We formalize this as the CFL trilemma, according to which improving two of these dimensions comes at the expense of the third. A prominent paradigm relies on metadata (i.e., low-dimensional representations of client datasets shared with the server) to enable communication- and computation-efficient clustering. However, such approaches are not compatible with standard FL privacy-preserving mechanisms. To address this limitation, we propose FLAMECHE, which reformulates metadata-based CFL as a distributed Expectation-Maximization (EM) procedure, restricting server updates to additive operations while preserving efficiency. This design enables compatibility with practical secure FL schemes. We conducted extensive experiments on multiple datasets under various heterogeneous scenarios. Results show that FLAMECHE improves the effectiveness of client models. It enables encryption-compatible metadata-based clustering, enhancing its positioning within the CFL trilemma.
Michael Ben Ali, Imen Megdiche, André Péninou +1
Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Equilibrium Training of Energy-Based Models with Parallel Trajectory Tempering

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) provide an interpretable framework for generative modeling of scientific data, but poor Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixing often limits their reliability. We introduce a training algorithm based on Parallel Trajectory Tempering (PTT), which exploits the continuity of the optimization path to maintain equilibrium sampling throughout learning. This enables stable and fast training on highly multimodal and data-scarce scientific datasets. Combined with reservoir sampling and adaptive optimization, PTT has a computational cost comparable to Persistent Contrastive Divergence, making it a practical replacement for standard training methods. It also provides direct estimates of thermalization times, equilibrium samples from trained models, and accurate log-likelihoods at essentially no additional cost. Experiments on Restricted Boltzmann Machines show that PTT consistently outperforms existing EBM training approaches. On discrete tabular data, it also surpasses state-of-the-art deep generative models, yielding higher-quality samples and greater robustness to overfitting and limited data. Our results make equilibrium maximum-likelihood training of EBMs practical and computationally efficient.
Nicolas Béreux, Aurélien Decelle, Cyril Furtlehner +1
Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

AMICA-Python: Adaptive Mixture Independent Component Analysis with Anderson Acceleration

Adaptive Mixture Independent Component Analysis (AMICA) is widely used in EEG research and has long been associated with strong empirical performance for blind source separation. Despite its impact, practical use has historically depended on a single Fortran implementation, accessed via the EEGLAB toolbox for MATLAB, limiting its accessibility for analytical pipelines not designed within the MATLAB ecosystem. Here we present AMICA-Python, a Python implementation of the AMICA algorithm, with a scikit-learn-conformant API designed for integration with existing scientific Python pipelines. The implementation follows the reference algorithm closely while adopting modern software engineering practices and an interface familiar to Python users. Additionally, we introduce an optional Anderson acceleration scheme that can dramatically reduce the time to convergence for this relatively slow algorithm. To evaluate numerical agreement and practical performance, we benchmarked AMICA-Python against the reference Fortran implementation on 14 open EEG recordings. After averaging 3 runs of each implementation on all 14 recordings, AMICA-Python closely matched the reference, with a median final normalized log-likelihoods of 11.572 for both the Fortran and Python implementations, and a negligible median relative absolute difference of only 1.07×1081.07\times10^{-8} when normalized by the absolute Fortran value. Runtime was also competitive. Relative to the reference implementation, AMICA-Python was 17.7% faster, while the Anderson-accelerated variant was 34.1% faster. AMICA-Python reproduces the reference implementation to high numerical precision with competitive runtime, while making AMICA available through a more accessible and extensible Python interface.
Scott Huberty, Christian O'Reilly
Jul 14, 2026cs.LG

Cluster-Weighted EDMD

Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) approximates Koopman operators from data, but a single global operator is inefficient when different state-space regions exhibit distinct local dynamics. We introduce Cluster-Weighted EDMD (CW-EDMD), which jointly learns a soft phase-space partition and a per-cluster EDMD operator. Its Expectation-Maximization (EM) objective assigns each transition based on both geometric proximity and prediction residuals, so clusters specialize where local Koopman models are accurate rather than where the data are dense. On Lorenz, damped pendulum, and Duffing systems, across 36 configurations and 10 seeds, CW-EDMD improves matched-degree EDMD in one-step and 5s-rollout prediction. Across 288 paired comparisons, there are significant error reductions in 258 cases, increases in 4, and no differences in 26. Median one-step error reductions are 57x, 2.7x, and 12x on pendulum, Duffing, and Lorenz, respectively.
Lorenzo Tomaz, Judd Rosenblatt, Flavio Kicis +2
Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

Simplifying Flow Matching Transformations with Low-Rank Mixture Models

Normalizing flows are powerful generative models that learn an invertible mapping between complex data distributions and simple latent distributions, typically a standard normal density. However, this choice of latent density can impose unnecessary complexity on the learned flow transformation due to the topological mismatch between the latent and data densities, leading to slower training and suboptimal performance. In this work, we propose using mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA) as the latent density for normalizing flows. We simplify the learned flow transformation by learning a latent distribution that more closely aligns with the data distribution in terms of KL divergence, thus enabling faster convergence and improved generative performance. Critically, MPPCA models can be fit quickly and cheaply using the expectation-maximization algorithm, making them a practical choice for initializing latent distributions even in high-dimensional generative tasks. We validate our method on both tabular and image datasets, demonstrating consistent gains in training efficiency and generation quality compared to baselines.
Liam A. Kruse, Houjun Liu, Alexandros E. Tzikas +2
Jun 24, 2026cs.LG

Rethinking Training & Inference for Forecasting: Linking Winner-Take-All back to GMMs

Trajectory forecasting for autonomous driving has advanced rapidly, yet representative models often produce uninformative posteriors over forecast modes, causing problems for mode pruning. We trace this to a modeling-training mismatch: forecasters are typically modeled as conditional Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) but trained with a winner-take-all (WTA) loss that assigns each sample to its nearest mode. We argue that this K-means-like hard assignment (one-hot), while preventing mode collapse, is the source of uninformative mode probabilities: it over-segments the trajectory space, ignores relatedness among nearby modes, and yields assignment instability under small perturbations. Guided by this lens, we introduce two post-hoc treatments: (1) test-time posterior-weighted merging that aggregates nearby candidate trajectories; and (2) a one-step expectation-maximization (EM) update that replaces hard labels with soft responsibilities, sharing probability mass across neighboring modes. Across several WTA-trained architectures, these lightweight steps produce more informative, faithfully ranked mode posteriors and strengthen final forecasts on popular displacement metrics -- without retraining. Our analysis unifies recent design choices through a GMM-vs-K-means perspective and offers principled, practical corrections that better align training objectives with inference.
Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2
Jun 22, 2026astro-ph.IM

Stochastic Expectation Maximization for Robust State-Space Radio Interferometric Imaging

State--space models provide a flexible framework for analyzing dynamical systems, yet they often rely on Gaussian assumptions that fail to capture heavy-tailed or outlier-prone measurement noise. We propose a robust estimation scheme for linear state--space models subject to compound-Gaussian noise, as encountered for instance in radio interferometry affected by radio-frequency interference (RFI). The method relies on a Stochastic Approximation Expectation--Maximization (SAEM) algorithm in which the standard E-step is replaced by Monte Carlo sampling of the latent states and noise texture through closed-form Gibbs updates, enabling tractable inference despite the heavy-tailed likelihood. Numerical experiments show that the proposed method significantly improves reconstruction fidelity and robustness to RFI, outperforming a Gaussian EM algorithm and even an oracle RTS smoother. These results highlight the benefits of heavy-tailed state--space modeling and SAEM-based inference in interference-dominated imaging scenarios.
Nawel Arab, Mohammed Nabil El Korso, Isabelle Vin +1
Jun 19, 2026cs.MA

Cohort Organized Learning: Clustering Through Agreement

In this article we describe Cohort Organized Learning (CoOL), a method for clustering data without explicit distance or similarity computations. Herein, we will describe CoOL, derive the gradients determined by expectation maximization to train the networks, show how to monitor convergence during training and evaluate the clusters after training, and discuss a series of examples and use cases. We also discuss CoOL's limitations and future prospects on related tasks. Because CoOL uses neural networks to estimate the clusters, it can be used to cluster any data that can be made compatible and we illustrate this on vector data and images.
Finn Henry O'Shea, Maria Elena Monzani
Jun 12, 2026cs.LG

EM-NeSy: Expectation Maximization for Neurosymbolic Learning

Neurosymbolic (NeSy) models integrate neural networks and symbolic reasoning for robust and interpretable AI. State-of-the-art NeSy models require that the symbolic component is expressed in a differentiable way, often complicating the use of approximate inference. We propose EM-NeSy which casts probabilistic NeSy learning as an instance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In the expectation step, we compute the posterior over the neurally predicted symbols conditioned on the label via probabilistic inference. In the maximization step, we update the neural parameters based on this posterior using gradient descent only through the neural component. This formulation unlocks the full potential of the EM algorithm for NeSy learning. It allows NeSy to extend naturally to approximate reasoning without any additional modifications or differentiability requirements of the symbolic component. Furthermore, it recovers the standard end-to-end gradient-based NeSy setting under exact inference. Our experimental results demonstrate the scalability and computational efficiency of EM-NeSy.
Annegret Seibt, Luc De Raedt, Giuseppe Marra
Jun 4, 2026physics.optics

Inverse Design of Realizable Metasurface based Absorbers using Improved Conditioning and Diversity Enhanced Progressively Growing GANs

Metasurfaces enable precise manipulation of electromagnetic waves for applications such as beam steering, sensing, and stealth technology. However, inverse design of metasurfaces with targeted EM responses remains challenging due to the computational expense of iterative full wave simulation driven optimization and the limited conditioning fidelity and diversity of existing generative approaches. To address these challenges, this paper presents a generative inverse design framework for controllable and physically consistent metasurface synthesis under continuous spectral constraints. The proposed approach employs a progressively growing Wasserstein generative adversarial network with gradient penalty integrated with feature wise linear modulation based conditioning for stable propagation of continuous spectral and fabrication constraints. EM consistency is embedded directly into the generative learning process through a surrogate assisted spectral alignment loss, enabling physics constrained generation during training. Further, a determinantal point process based diversity regularization strategy is incorporated to generate geometrically diverse yet spectrally consistent realizations for the same target response. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated through the generation of practically realizable metasurface absorbers exhibiting diverse reflection characteristics in the frequency range of 2 to 18 GHz. EM simulations validate that the generated designs meet the target specifications with high accuracy. The final proposed framework achieved an average mean squared error of 0.0052, diversity score of 0.8730, band alignment accuracy of 0.8533, and a valid EM design generation percentage of 89.57, clearly demonstrating its capability to generate highly accurate, diverse, electromagnetically consistent and fabrication realizable metasurface configurations.
Vineetha Joy, Mohammad Abdullah, Pramit Pal +3
Jun 1, 2026cs.LG

Minimax-Optimal Policy Regret in Partially Observable Markov Games

We study sequential decision-making in partially observable environments against strategic, adaptive opponents, modeled as partially observable Markov games (POMGs). The central challenge is to learn latent dynamics from partial observations while facing an adversary whose behavior depends on the learner's strategy, making standard regret notions inadequate. We prove that an epoch-based optimistic maximum-likelihood algorithm achieves O~(T)\tilde{O}(\sqrt{T}) policy regret for fixed problem parameters, with explicit dependence on the horizon, adversary memory, confidence radius, and the aggregate Eluder dimension of the observable-operator class. The algorithm selects one policy per geometrically growing epoch using confidence sets built cumulatively from past data, which keeps the cost of comparing adversary responses across policies logarithmic in TT. We also prove a lower bound matching the T\sqrt{T} and aggregate-Eluder-dimension dependence, up to problem-dependent and logarithmic factors. Finally, we extend the framework to horizon-adaptive guarantees and adversaries with geometric fading memory.
Raman Arora
May 29, 2026cs.LG

Local linear convergence of gradient methods for overparameterized Gaussian mixtures

We study the problem of learning Gaussian mixture models under overparameterization. Prior work has shown that while overparameterization is essential for avoiding spurious local optima and enables global recovery of the ground-truth model using the gradient-EM (expectation-maximization) algorithm, it can dramatically slow down the local rate of convergence. Under certain assumptions on the mixture weights, we show that a standard divergence measure minimized by statistical learning procedures possesses a manifold of slow growth on which the well-known Polyak stepsize reduces the loss geometrically, and design a gradient-based method that converges to minimizers at a locally linear rate. Additionally, we show that our method converges to nearly optimal solutions -- up to a natural misspecification threshold -- for mixtures with arbitrary weights. At a high level, the method alternates between several "short" gradient descent steps that approach the manifold and "long" Polyak steps that contract the distance to minimizers. Our results suggest that slow convergence is not an intrinsic challenge of overparameterization, but can be overcome by exploiting the favorable structure of the loss landscape.
Jingxing Wang, Vasileios Charisopoulos, Maryam Fazel
May 27, 2026cs.LG

Fitting Unknown Number of Hyperplanes with Manifold Optimization

Fitting an unknown number of hyperplanes to data is a fundamental yet challenging problem in machine learning, characterized by its non-convexity, non-differentiability, and unknown model order. Existing approaches often struggle with local optima or lack geometric consistency. To address these limitations, we propose a novel framework based on Manifold Optimization. We reformulate the problem as an unsupervised learning task on the unit sphere manifold Sdim1\mathcal{S}^{\textbf{dim}-1}. This formulation effectively handles the non-convex constraints and linearizes the distance measurement, rendering the gradient descent tractable. We propose a Two-Stage Manifold Optimization algorithm. In Phase I, we employ a Riemannian Expectation-Maximization process with a heavy-tailed kernel to robustly estimate posterior probabilities, effectively resolving the ambiguities of point distribution between intersecting hyperplanes. In Phase II, upon convergence of the soft estimates, the probabilistic weights degenerate into hard matching, generating a precise local optimum that strictly satisfies the geometric definition. Furthermore, we introduce a projected density estimation strategy for initialization to facilitate global convergence by significantly reducing the feature description space and search complexity. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in both geometric accuracy and robustness.
Zhiqin Cheng, Yu Zhan, Mingjin Zhang +2
May 25, 2026cs.LG

Missing Pattern Recognized Diffusion Imputation Model for Missing Not At Random

Missing data frequently arises across diverse domains, including time-series and image domains. In the real world, missing occurrences often depend on the unobservable values themselves, which are referred to as Missing Not at Random (MNAR). In this work, we introduce the Missing Pattern Recognized Diffusion Imputation Model (PRDIM), a novel framework that explicitly captures the missing pattern and precisely imputes unobserved values. PRDIM iteratively maximizes the likelihood of the joint distribution for observed values and missing mask under an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In this sense, we first employ a pattern recognizer, which approximates the underlying missing pattern and provides guidance during every inference toward more plausible imputations with respect to the missing information. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that PRDIM consistently achieves strong imputation performance under MNAR settings across multiple data modalities.
Gyuwon Sim, Sumin Lee, Heesun Bae +5
May 19, 2026cs.LG

Normative Networks for Source Separation via Local Plasticity and Dendritic Computation

Blind source separation (BSS) is a natural framework for studying how latent causes may be recovered from sensory mixtures, but deriving online and biologically plausible algorithms for structured (i.e., constrained to known domains) and potentially correlated sources remains challenging. Recent work has derived neural networks for BSS from maximization of an entropy measure, yet its online implementations involve complex and nonlocal recurrent dynamics. Motivated by this perspective, we propose Predictive Entropy Maximization, which achieves competitive performance in BSS, using only local weight updates. The method employs a close approximation of an entropy measure, yielding an objective function with easily interpretable components. Minimizing this objective leads to a predictive neural architecture in which feedforward synapses follow an error-driven rule (that can be realized through dendritic mechanisms), lateral inhibitory connections are learned with local Hebbian plasticity, and source-domain constraints are enforced through simple output nonlinearities. We derive explicit spectral bounds on the surrogate error, characterizing when the approximation is accurate. Empirically, Predictive Entropy Maximization remains robust under increasing source correlation and observation noise, outperforms biologically plausible algorithms that rely on stronger independence or decorrelation assumptions, and remains competitive with exact determinant- and correlative-information-based baselines. These results show how local plasticity and adaptive lateral inhibition can emerge from maximizing a regularized second-order entropy over structured source domains. Our implementation code is available at https://github.com/BariscanBozkurt/Predictive-Entropy-Maximization.
Bariscan Bozkurt, Efe Ali Gorguner, Francesco Innocenti +1
May 19, 2026cs.CV

Physics Guided Conditional Diffusion Framework for Generative Inverse Design of Manufacturable Metasurface based Absorbers

Inverse design of metasurfaces under continuous electromagnetic constraints requires generation of geometries that simultaneously satisfy stringent spectral specifications and remain manufacturable. Conventional approaches based on iterative full wave simulations are computationally prohibitive for large design spaces, while existing generative models often suffer from poor conditional controllability and limited fabrication awareness. In this regard, we propose a physics guided condition quality enhanced diffusion framework for the inverse design of metasurface based absorbers. Fabrication-aware constraints are incorporated to ensure practical realizability of the generated designs. The framework introduces a conditioning mechanism for continuous spectral specifications, wherein feature-wise linear modulation propagates the condition across the denoising hierarchy, enabling stable and accurate generation with improved spectral controllability. Further, to embed EM consistency directly into the generative learning process, a pre trained surrogate EM simulator is integrated within the diffusion training pipeline. The proposed framework generated physically realizable metasurface designs for diverse reflection characteristics in the frequency range of 2 to 18 GHz, achieving a very low average spectral mean squared error of 0.0006 and a high band alignment accuracy of 0.958. The framework also addresses the fundamentally non-unique nature of inverse EM design by enabling structured multimodal generation of geometrically distinct yet spectrally consistent metasurface designs for the same target response. The proposed model produces the suitable design in approximately 30 seconds, whereas the conventional approach can take several months under comparable computational resources. The efficiency of the model is also established via experimental measurements.
Vineetha Joy, Jamshed Palai, Satwik Sahu +3
May 19, 2026cs.LG

An Objective Performance Evaluation of the LSTM Networks in Time Series Classification

The rapid adoption of deep learning has increasingly led to data-driven models replacing classical model-based algorithms, even in domains governed by well-understood physical laws. While data-driven models, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have become a popular choice for time-series analysis, their performance relative to model-based approaches in structured environments is rarely evaluated objectively. This paper presents a performance evaluation framework comparing an LSTM classifier against a model-based expectation maximization (EM) classifier for binary time-series classification. The evaluation is conducted on two scalar linear Gaussian state space models differing only in their noise statistics, where the Kalman filter likelihood ratio test with true parameters serves as a reference for the best achievable classification performance.Through Monte Carlo simulations, the classifiers are evaluated across three axes: task difficulty, controlled by the separation in process or measurement noise between the two models; sequence length; and training dataset size. The results show that the EM classifier, which exploits the known model structure, performs strongly when the data conform to the assumed model class. The LSTM classifier requires a larger separation in noise statistics to achieve reliable classification, and its performance saturates below the reference classifier when the models differ only in measurement noise, regardless of sequence length or training dataset size.
Sooraj Sunil, Balakumar Balasingam
May 11, 2026cs.LG

BCJR-QAT: A Differentiable Relaxation of Trellis-Coded Weight Quantization

Trellis-coded quantization sets the current 2-bit post-training frontier for LLMs (QTIP), but pushing below the PTQ ceiling requires quantization-aware training, and QAT on a trellis is obstructed by the non-differentiable Viterbi argmax. We introduce BCJR-QAT, a relaxation that replaces the argmax with the BCJR forward-backward sum-product algorithm at temperature TT, producing a soft codeword equal to the Boltzmann expectation over trellis paths, exactly differentiable, recovering the hard QTIP code as T0T \to 0, and mathematically identical to the transfer-matrix computation for a 1D Ising-like spin chain. We contribute (i) a fused Triton kernel making BCJR tractable on a single consumer GPU (6.57×6.57\times speedup, fp32 parity); (ii) a quantitative drift-budget theory of when BCJR-QAT can escape the QTIP-PTQ Voronoi basin, verified across four experiments; and (iii) a positive empirical result on Llama-3.2-1B at 2 bpw under end-to-end forward-KL distillation: with the right schedule (skip the high-TT phase to avoid an overshoot we diagnose), single-layer BCJR-QAT beats QTIP-PTQ by 0.084\mathbf{-0.084} PPL on WikiText-2, and multi-layer compounding is super-additive.
Venugopalan Iyengar
May 4, 2026stat.ML

Online Generalised Predictive Coding

This paper introduces an extension of generalised filtering for online applications. Generalised filtering refers to data assimilation schemes that jointly infer latent states, learn unknown model parameters, and estimate uncertainty in an integrated framework -- e.g., estimate state and observation noise -- at the same time (i.e., triple estimation). This framework appears across disciplines under different names, including variational Kalman-Bucy filtering in engineering, generalised predictive coding in neuroscience, and Dynamic Expectation Maximisation (DEM) in time-series analysis. Here, we specialise DEM for ``online'' data assimilation, through a separation of temporal scales. We describe the variational principles and procedures that allow one to assimilate data in a way that allows for a slow updating of parameters and precisions, which contextualise fast Bayesian belief updating about the dynamic hidden states. Using numerical studies, we demonstrate the validity of online DEM (ODEM) using a non-linear -- and potentially chaotic -- generative model, to show that the ODEM scheme can track the latent states of the generative process, even when its functional form differs fundamentally from the dynamics of the generative model. Framed from a neuro-mimetic predictive coding perspective, ODEM offers a biologically inspired solution to online inference, learning, and uncertainty estimation in dynamic environments.
Mehran H. Z. Bazargani, Szymon Urbas, Adeel Razi +2
Apr 30, 2026physics.ao-ph

Physically-Informed Fuzzy Clustering of Vertical Sounding Ionograms

This paper presents a physically-informed fuzzy clustering of vertical sounding ionograms for automatically separating the ionogram into tracks suitable for further interpretation and determining their optimal number. The model is designed for use not only in conditions where the number of tracks is known, but also in disturbed ionospheric conditions where the number of tracks is preliminary unknown. The method is based on an expectation-maximization algorithm, used for clustering, and on parametrically specified distributions of distances from points to parametrically specified curves. The curves used as track models are close to model tracks in the parabolic ionospheric layer model. The resulting model of each track has six parameters: three standard ones (the critical frequency, the lower boundary of the layer, and its half-width), and three additional ones to take into account possible underlying layer effects. By sequentially increasing the number of tracks and optimizing their parameters, the model finds the optimal number of tracks on the ionogram by minimizing the modified Bayesian information criterion. The Sequential Least Squares Quadratic Programming algorithm is used to find the parameters of a single track. The width of each single track is assumed to be unknown constant found during fitting process. To improve the quality of ionogram clustering, automatic adaptive noise filtering is performed before clustering. This filtering is based on a combination of the DBSCAN and Gaussian Mixture algorithms. Also, to improve clustering quality on an ionosonde without hardware separation of the ordinary and extraordinary components, a preliminary approximate removal of points belonging to the extraordinary mode is performed.
Oleg I. Berngardt, Sergey N. Ponomarchuk
Apr 28, 2026stat.ME

Fitting Large Nonlinear Mixed Effects Models Using Variational Expectation Maximization

Nonlinear Mixed Effects (NLME) models are widely used in pharmacometrics and related fields to analyze hierarchical and longitudinal data. However, as the number of parameters and random effects increases, traditional methods for maximizing the marginal likelihood become computationally expensive. This paper explores the Variational Expectation Maximization (VEM) algorithm, a scalable alternative for fitting NLME models. Originally introduced in the context of probabilistic graphical models and later popularized through variational autoencoders, VEM has not been extensively applied to NLME modeling. By leveraging flexible variational families and reverse-mode automatic differentiation, VEM can efficiently maximize the marginal likelihood, scaling to NLME models with over 15,000 population parameters. This work provides a detailed description of VEM, compares it to other NLME fitting algorithms, and highlights its scalability through computational experiments. Using the Pumas statistical software, we fit two test models: 1) a standard warfarin model, and 2) an unnecessarily over-parameterized DeepNLME Friberg model with 15,410 population parameters and 16 random effects. The warfarin model was fitted to completion to demonstrate the correctness of VEM, while the DeepNLME Friberg model instead demonstrates VEM's scalability on a toy but large model. VEM improves the log likelihood steadily over hundreds of iterations at a practical per-iteration cost, while FOCE fails to complete even one iteration within a day. The model is deliberately over-parameterized for its small dataset and over-fits it, so what this experiment establishes is that VEM optimizes the objective of a model of this size at a practical cost. Applying VEM to large models that are genuinely useful is left to future work.
Mohamed Tarek, Pedro Afonso
Apr 17, 2026eess.SP

Planar Gaussian Splatting with Bilinear Spatial Transformer for Wireless Radiance Field Reconstruction

Wireless radiance field (WRF) reconstruction aims to learn a continuous, queryable representation of radio frequency characteristics over 3D space and direction, from which specific quantities, such as the spatial power spectrum (SPS) at a receiver given a transmitter position, can be predicted. While Gaussian splatting (GS)-based method has surpassed Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF)-based method for this task, existing adaptations largely transplant vision pipelines, limiting physical interpretability and accuracy. We introduce BiSplat-WRF, a planar GS framework that retains the expressiveness of 3D GS while removing unnecessary projections and incorporating global EM coupling and mutual scattering among primitives. Each primitive is a 2D planar Gaussian with 3D coordinates, rendered directly on the angular domain of the SPS. A bilinear spatial transformer (BST) aggregates inter-primitive relations on an angular grid and, via attention, captures long-range electromagnetic dependencies, thereby enforcing globally aware EM interactions that reflect the complex physics of the wireless environment. On spatial spectrum synthesis task, BiSplat-WRF surpasses NeRF-based and prior GS-based baselines with respect to the Structural Similarity Index (SSIM); comprehensive ablation studies validate the contribution of BST. We also provide a larger BiSplat-WRF+ variant that further increases SSIM at a higher computation cost, serving as a strong reference for future studies.
Jinghan Zhang, Xitao Gong, Qi Wang +2
Dec 31, 2025cs.LG

Gradient Descent as Implicit EM in Distance-Based Neural Models

Neural networks trained with standard objectives exhibit behaviors characteristic of probabilistic inference: soft clustering, prototype specialization, and Bayesian uncertainty tracking. These phenomena appear across architectures -- in attention mechanisms, classification heads, and energy-based models -- yet existing explanations often rely on loose analogies to mixture models or post-hoc architectural interpretation. We provide a direct explanation. For any objective with log-sum-exp structure over distances or energies, the gradient with respect to each distance is exactly the negative posterior responsibility of the corresponding component: L/dj=rj\partial L / \partial d_j = -r_j. The identity is algebraic, requiring only differentiability; it is a specialization of Fisher's identity, and its significance here is its address: standard neural objectives instantiate it without modification. The consequence is that gradient descent on such objectives performs generalized expectation-maximization implicitly, with responsibilities arising as gradients to be applied rather than auxiliary variables to be computed. This result unifies three regimes of learning: unsupervised mixture modeling, where responsibilities are fully latent; attention, where responsibilities are conditioned on queries; and cross-entropy classification, where supervision clamps responsibilities to targets. Our claims live at training time: the responsibility-weighted gradient dynamics recently documented in transformers follow from the objective's geometry. The in-context Bayesian computation that trained transformers perform at inference time is the endpoint of these dynamics, not their per-step content.
Alan Oursland
Mar 12, 2025cs.CL

LatentCRS: A Variational EM Framework for Bridging Semantics and Behavior in LLM-based Conversational Recommendation

Conversational Recommender Systems (CRS) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) enable users to articulate explicit and dynamic preferences, overcoming the limitations of fixed templates. However, despite their superior semantic proficiency, LLMs have not yet achieved corresponding improvements in recommendation accuracy. This discrepancy arises from a fundamental representation gap: while LLMs operate within a semantic space, they lack the behavioral grounding needed to encode user behavioral patterns, such as item co-occurrences, which are crucial for accurate recommendations. To address this, we propose a model-agnostic Variational EM Framework for Bridging Semantics and Behavior in LLM-based Conversational Recommendation (LatentCRS). Based on the observation that dialogue and interactions reflect the same latent intent, LatentCRS uses a variational expectation-maximization (EM) procedure, where user intent connects semantic representations with behavioral patterns. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that LatentCRS effectively bridges the representation gap and outperforms baselines.
Guanrong Li, Kuo Tian, Jinnan Qi +4
Feb 24, 2025math.OC

A stochastic smoothing framework for nonconvex-nonconcave minEmax problems with applications to Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization

We study a class of stochastic nonsmooth optimization problems in which an outer variable minimizes the expectation of a pointwise maximum. This minimization--expectation--maximization (minEmax) problem arises in Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization and adversarially robust training, and it cannot in general be reformulated as a finite-dimensional minimax problem when the underlying distribution is not empirical. We propose a stochastic smoothing proximal gradient method based on log-mean-exp smoothing of the value function. Under compactness and Lipschitz-type assumptions, we present nonasymptotic analysis in terms of Goldstein stationarity and show that every almost-sure cluster point generated by our method is a Clarke stationary point; by Clarke regularity, such a point is also directional stationary for the original problem. Numerical experiments on newsvendor, robust regression, and adversarially robust learning problems show that the proposed method is competitive with existing baselines.
Wei Liu, Muhammad Khan, Gabriel Mancino-Ball +1
Sep 16, 2024stat.ML

The EM-algorithm and the Method of Moments in Softmax Mixture Models

Softmax Mixture Models (SMMs) are discrete KK-component mixture models for the probabilities of selecting one of pp candidate feature vectors X1,,XpRLX_1,\ldots,X_p\in\mathbb{R}^L in heterogeneous populations and are widely used in econometrics and scientific applications. Related softmax mixture mechanisms also appear in modern LLM architectures. We provide a theoretical and methodological study of SMMs, focusing on the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and the Method of Moments (MoM). We show that EM recovers the mixture atoms at the parametric rate, up to logarithmic factors, after O(logN)\mathcal{O}(\log N) iterations, provided atom separation is at least of order logK\log K. This improves on separation conditions in existing analyses of EM for high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures. We also develop MoM procedures for parameter and subspace estimation. Although MoM parameter estimates converge more slowly than EM and can deteriorate with KK, they provide provable warm starts for EM and are useful for small KK. For general KK, we estimate the atom subspace via MoM and recommend running EM from multiple random initializations within this subspace. Finally, as pp\to\infty, we show that SMMs approximate mixtures of exponential tilts of the feature distribution, yielding asymptotic identifiability.
Xin Bing, Florentina Bunea, Jonathan Niles-Weed +1
Jul 1, 2024cs.CV

An Expectation-Maximization Algorithm for Training Clean Diffusion Models from Corrupted Observations

Diffusion models excel in solving imaging inverse problems due to their ability to model complex image priors. However, their reliance on large, clean datasets for training limits their practical use where clean data is scarce. In this paper, we propose EMDiffusion, an expectation-maximization (EM) approach to train diffusion models from corrupted observations. Our method alternates between reconstructing clean images from corrupted data using a known diffusion model (E-step) and refining diffusion model weights based on these reconstructions (M-step). This iterative process leads the learned diffusion model to gradually converge to the true clean data distribution. We validate our method through extensive experiments on diverse computational imaging tasks, including random inpainting, denoising, and deblurring, achieving new state-of-the-art performance.
Weimin Bai, Yifei Wang, Wenzheng Chen +1