Model Discovery

Momentum

7 papers in the last four weeks, level with the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 84

May 14, 2026cs.CL

SciPaths: Forecasting Pathways to Scientific Discovery

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.
May 14, 2026cs.CV

Systematic Discovery of Semantic Attacks in Online Map Construction through Conditional Diffusion

Autonomous vehicles depend on online HD map construction to perceive lane boundaries, dividers, and pedestrian crossings -- safety-critical road elements that directly govern motion planning. While existing pixel perturbation attacks can disrupt the mapping, they can be neutralized by standard adversarial defenses. We present MIRAGE, a framework for systematic discovery of semantic attacks that bypass adversarial defenses and degrade mapping predictions by finding plausible environmental variation (e.g. shadows, wet roads). MIRAGE exploits the latent manifold of real-world data learned by diffusion models, and searches for semantically mutated scenes neighboring the ground truth with the same road topology yet mislead the mapping predictions. We evaluate MIRAGE on nuScenes and demonstrate two attacks: (1) boundary removal, suppressing 57.7% of detections and corrupting 96% of planned trajectories; and (2) boundary injection, the only method that successfully injects fictitious boundaries, while pixel PGD and AdvPatch fail entirely. Both attacks remain potent under various adversarial defenses. We use two independent VLM judges to quantify realism, where MIRAGE passes as realistic 80--84% of the time (vs. 97--99% for clean nuScenes), while AdvPatch only 0--9%. Our findings expose a categorical gap in current adversarial defenses: semantic-level perturbations that manifest as legitimate environmental variation are substantially harder to mitigate than pixel-level perturbations.
May 11, 2026cs.LG

Epistemic Uncertainty for Test-Time Discovery

Automated scientific discovery using large language models relies on identifying genuinely novel solutions. Standard reinforcement learning penalizes high-variance mutations, which leads the policy to prioritize familiar patterns. As a result, the maximum reward plateaus even as the average reward increases. Overcoming this limitation requires a signal that distinguishes unexplored regions from intrinsically difficult problems. This necessitates measuring disagreement across independently adapted weight hypotheses rather than relying on a single network's confidence. UG-TTT addresses this challenge by maintaining a small ensemble of low-rank adapters over a frozen base model. The per-token disagreement, quantified as the mutual information between ensemble predictions and weight hypotheses, isolates epistemic uncertainty and identifies positions where insufficient coverage leads to adapter divergence rather than intrinsic problem difficulty. This measure is incorporated as an exploration bonus into the policy gradient, directing the policy toward positions where persistent adapter disagreement signals low training coverage, the same frontier where genuine discovery is possible. A nuclear norm regularizer ensures the adapters remain distinct from one another, thereby preserving the exploration signal throughout training. Across four scientific discovery benchmarks, UG-TTT increases the maximum reward on three tasks, maintains substantially higher solution diversity, and an ablation study confirms that the regularizer is essential for sustaining this behavior.
May 10, 2026cs.LG

Discovery of Nonlinear Dynamics with Automated Basis Function Generation

Discovering governing equations from observational data remains a fundamental challenge in scientific modeling, particularly when the underlying mathematical structure is unknown. Traditional sparse identification methods like SINDy excel at discovering parsimonious models but require researchers to specify candidate basis functions a priori, a limitation that often leads to model failure when critical terms are omitted or when systems exhibit unconventional dynamics. Purely symbolic regression approaches offer unlimited flexibility but struggle with noise sensitivity and frequently produce overly complex, unstable equations. We present AutoSINDy, a hybrid Discovery-then-Solve framework that combines the exploratory power of symbolic regression with the robust sparsity-promoting capabilities of SINDy. Our method operates in three stages: (1) PySR-based symbolic regression discovers candidate functional forms from bootstrapped data chunks; (2) a curation pipeline decomposes, expands, and filters these expressions using collinearity analysis to construct a minimal yet comprehensive library; and (3) SINDy identifies sparse governing equations from this custom-tailored library. Extensive experiments across canonical nonlinear systems demonstrate that AutoSINDy consistently recovers ground-truth equations even under high observational noise, achieving a ground-truth recovery rate of 92.8% across all trials. Compared with standard SINDy using enriched libraries and standalone symbolic regression, AutoSINDy achieves higher predictive accuracy, superior generalization to unseen trajectories, and substantially lower symbolic complexity.
May 9, 2026cs.LG

From Mechanistic to Compositional Interpretability

Mechanistic interpretability aims to explain neural model behaviour by reverse-engineering learned computational structure into human-understandable components. Without a formal framework, however, mechanistic explanations cannot be objectively verified, compared, or composed. We introduce compositional interpretability, a category-theoretic framework grounded in the principles of compositionality and minimum description length. Compositional interpretations are pairs of syntactic and semantic mappings that must commute to enforce consistency between a model's decomposition and its observed behaviour. We deconstruct explanation quality into measures of faithfulness and complexity to cast interpretability as a constrained optimisation problem, and introduce compressive refinement to systematically restructure models into simpler parts without altering their function. Finally, we derive a parsimony criterion under which syntactic compression theoretically guarantees more concise, human-aligned explanations. Our framework situates prominent mechanistic methods as subclasses of refinement, and clarifies why their compressibility heuristics tend to align with human interpretability. Our work provides a measurable, optimisable blueprint for automating the discovery and evaluation of mechanistic explanations.
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Black-box model classification under the discriminative factorization

Access to modern generative systems is often restricted to querying an API (the ``black-box" setting) and many properties of the system are unknown to the user at inference time. While recent work has shown that low-dimensional representations of models based on the relationship between their embedded responses to a set of queries are useful for inferring model-level properties, the quality of these representations is highly sensitive to the query set. We introduce the \emph{discriminative factorization} to distinguish between high- and low-quality query sets in the context of black-box model-level classification. Under this framework, the probability of chance-level classification decays exponentially in the query budget. On three auditing tasks, estimated factorization parameters predict the empirical performance decay rate. We conclude by showing that query sets selected using the estimated discriminative field reproduce the empirical ordering of oracle query sets.
May 8, 2026cs.AI

Discovering Ordinary Differential Equations with LLM-Based Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation

Discovering governing differential equations from observational data is a fundamental challenge in scientific machine learning. Existing symbolic regression approaches rely primarily on quantitative metrics; however, real-world differential equation modeling also requires incorporating domain knowledge to ensure physical plausibility. To address this gap, we propose DoLQ, a method for discovering ordinary differential equations with LLM-based qualitative and quantitative evaluation. DoLQ employs a multi-agent architecture: a Sampler Agent proposes dynamic system candidates, a Parameter Optimizer refines equations for accuracy, and a Scientist Agent leverages an LLM to conduct both qualitative and quantitative evaluations and synthesize their results to iteratively guide the search. Experiments on multi-dimensional ordinary differential equation benchmarks demonstrate that DoLQ achieves superior performance compared to existing methods, not only attaining higher success rates but also more accurately recovering the correct symbolic terms of ground truth equations. Our code is available at https://github.com/Bon99yun/DoLQ.
May 8, 2026cs.LG

Arrow: A Foundation Model for Causal Discovery

We introduce Arrow, a foundation model for zero-shot causal discovery on observational tabular data. Arrow factorizes a directed acyclic graph into an undirected skeleton and a topological order, guaranteeing acyclicity by construction. Given a new dataset, it uses a transformer-based architecture to contextualize variables within and across observations, then predicts skeleton edge probabilities and node order scores that together define a graph. Arrow is trained in a supervised fashion on synthetic datasets with ground-truth graphs, using an end-to-end differentiable directed edge composite likelihood induced by the skeleton-order factorization. The training distribution spans diverse graph families, functional forms, noise models, and dataset shapes. Across in- and out-of-distribution synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real datasets, Arrow matches or outperforms existing causal discovery methods at substantially lower inference cost than competitive alternatives. Our results demonstrate that large-scale pretraining on diverse synthetic data can yield zero-shot causal discovery models that are fast, accurate, and reusable on new datasets.
May 6, 2026q-bio.NC

Think-Aloud Reshapes Automated Cognitive Model Discovery Beyond Behavior

Computational cognitive models discovered using large language models have so far relied solely on behavioral data. However, it is well-known that models produced from the behavioral trajectory alone are typically under-determined. In this work, we explore the use of Think Aloud traces as an additional form of data constraint during automated model discovery. When applied to the domain of risky decision-making, we find that the models discovered with think-aloud achieve significantly improved predictive performance on held-out data. Additionally, we find that the discovered models belong to different structural classes than those discovered from behavior alone for the majority of participants (69.4%), specifically, it shifts from Explicit comparator towards Integrated utility. These results suggest that process-level language data not only improve model fit, but also systematically reshape the structure of the discovered cognitive models, enabling the identification of mechanisms that are not recoverable from behavior alone.
May 3, 2026q-fin.PR

PHBench: A Benchmark for Predicting Startup Series A Funding from Product Hunt Launch Signals

Structured launch signals on Product Hunt contain statistically significant predictive information for Series A funding outcomes. We construct PHBench from 67,292 featured Product Hunt posts spanning 2019-2025, linked to Crunchbase funding records via deterministic domain matching, identifying 528 verified Series A raises within 18 months of launch (positive rate: 0.78%). Our best-performing model, a three-component ensemble (ENS_avg, ENS_ISO, XGB) selected by validation F0.5, achieves F0.5 = 0.097 and AP = 0.037 (95% CI: 0.024-0.072; 4.7x lift over random) on the private held-out test set (103 positives). A paired bootstrap confirms a statistically credible advantage over the logistic regression baseline (AP delta: +0.013, 95% CI: [0.004, 0.039], p < 0.001; F0.5 delta: +0.056, 95% CI: [0.006, 0.122], p = 0.016). Validation-set metrics (F0.5 = 0.284, AP = 0.126) reflect best-of-144 selection bias on 53 positives and are reported for benchmark reproducibility only. We further evaluate three zero-shot Gemini models (Gemini 2.5 Flash, Gemini 3 Flash, and Gemini 3.1 Pro) in an anonymized numerical setting. The best LLM achieves AP = 0.034 (Gemini 3 Flash), below the LR baseline AP of 0.044. Notably, the most capable Gemini variant (Gemini 3.1 Pro, AP = 0.023) performs worst -- an unexpected pattern that warrants further investigation across providers and prompting strategies. Both ML and LLM models show the same temporal performance decay tracking the 2020-2021 funding boom and subsequent contraction, confirming the dataset captures genuine market structure rather than noise. PHBench provides a reproducible framework comprising public training, validation, and blind test splits; 61 engineered features; a five-metric evaluation harness; and a public leaderboard at https://phbench.com. All code, baseline models, and anonymized dataset splits are publicly available.
May 2, 2026cs.CL

Automated Interpretability and Feature Discovery in Language Models with Agents

We introduce an autonomous multiagent framework for mechanistic interpretability that automates both explaining and finding internal features in large language models. The system runs two coupled loops: (1) explanation refinement, where an agent proposes competing hypotheses and iteratively tests them with targeted prompt controls and a multi-metric evaluation; and (2) feature discovery, where an agent generates prompt sets, constructs a k-nearest-neighbor graph in activation space, and retrieves candidate features using statistical separability and semantic coherence criteria. On Gemma-2 family models and MLP neurons in weight-sparse transformers, our agent improves over one-shot auto-interpretations, discovers language-specific and safety-relevant features, and produces auditable explanation traces, showing that agent-driven empirical loops yield sharper and more falsifiable explanations than one-shot labels.
Apr 30, 2026cs.AI

Machine Collective Intelligence for Explainable Scientific Discovery

Deriving governing equations from empirical observations is a longstanding challenge in science. Although artificial intelligence (AI) has demonstrated substantial capabilities in function approximation, the discovery of explainable and extrapolatable equations remains a fundamental limitation of modern AI, posing a central bottleneck for AI-driven scientific discovery. Here, we present machine collective intelligence, a unified paradigm that integrates two fundamental yet distinct traditions in computational intelligence--symbolism and metaheuristics--to enable autonomous and evolutionary discovery of governing equations. It orchestrates multiple reasoning agents to evolve their symbolic hypotheses through coordinated generation, evaluation, critique, and consolidation, enabling scientific discovery beyond single-agent inference. Across scientific systems governed by deterministic, stochastic, or previously uncharacterized dynamics, machine collective intelligence autonomously recovered the underlying governing equations without relying on hand-crafted domain knowledge. Furthermore, the resulting equations reduced extrapolation error by up to six orders of magnitude relative to deep neural networks, while condensing 0.5-1 million model parameters into just 5-40 interpretable parameters. This study marks an important shift in AI toward the autonomous discovery of principled scientific equations.
Apr 24, 2026cond-mat.mtrl-sci

Large language model-enabled automated data extraction for concrete materials informatics

The promise of data-driven materials discovery remains constrained by the scarcity of large, high-quality, and accessible experimental datasets. Here, we introduce a generalizable large language model (LLM)-powered pipeline for automated extraction and structuring of materials data from unstructured scientific literature, using concrete materials as a representative and particularly challenging example. The pipeline exhibits robust performance across a broad range of LLMs and achieves an F1F_1 score of up to 0.98 for diverse composition--process--property attributes. Within one hour, it extracts nearly 9,000 high-quality records with over 100 attributes from a corpus screened from more than 27,000 publications, enabling the construction of the largest open laboratory database for blended cement concrete. Machine learning analyses underscore the importance of large, diverse, and information-rich datasets for enhancing both in-distribution accuracy and out-of-distribution generalization to unseen materials. The proposed pipeline is readily adaptable to other materials domains and accelerates the development of scalable data infrastructures for materials informatics.
Apr 23, 2026cs.AI

CoFEE: Reasoning Control for LLM-Based Feature Discovery

Feature discovery from complex unstructured data is fundamentally a reasoning problem: it requires identifying abstractions that are predictive of a target outcome while avoiding leakage, proxies, and post-outcome signals. With the introduction of ever-improving Large Language Models (LLMs), our method provides a structured method for addressing this challenge. LLMs are well suited for this task by being able to process large amounts of information, but unconstrained feature generation can lead to weak features. In this work, we study reasoning control in LLMs by inducing cognitive behaviors for improving feature discovery. We introduce CoFEE (Cognitive Feature Engineering Engine), a reasoning control framework that enforces cognitive behaviors in how the LLM reasons during feature discovery. From a machine learning perspective, these cognitive behaviors act as structured inductive biases over the space of candidate features generated by the model. These behaviors have been exploited with success in ML models, and include backward chaining from outcomes, subgoal decomposition, verification against observability and leakage criteria, and explicit backtracking of rejected reasoning paths. In a controlled comparison, we show that enforcing cognitive behaviors yields features with higher empirical predictability than those under unconstrained vanilla LLM prompts. CoFEE achieves an average Success Rate Score that is 15.2% higher than the vanilla approach, while generating 29% fewer features and reducing costs by 53.3%. Using held-out feature evaluation, we assess whether cognitively induced features generalize beyond the data used for discovery. Our results indicate that, in our evaluated setting, reasoning control is associated with improvements in quality and efficiency of LLM-based feature discovery.
Apr 21, 2026cs.LG

Evaluation-driven Scaling for Scientific Discovery

Language models are increasingly used in scientific discovery to generate hypotheses, propose candidate solutions, implement systems, and iteratively refine them. At the core of these trial-and-error loops lies evaluation: the process of obtaining feedback on candidate solutions via verifiers, simulators, or task-specific scoring functions. While prior work has highlighted the importance of evaluation, it has not explicitly formulated the problem of how evaluation-driven discovery loops can be scaled up in a principled and effective manner to push the boundaries of scientific discovery, a problem this paper seeks to address. We introduce Simple Test-time Evaluation-driven Scaling (SimpleTES), a general framework that strategically combines parallel exploration, feedback-driven refinement, and local selection, revealing substantial gains unlocked by scaling evaluation-driven discovery loops along the right dimensions. Across 21 scientific problems spanning six domains, SimpleTES discovers state-of-the-art solutions using gpt-oss models, consistently outperforming both frontier-model baselines and sophisticated optimization pipelines. Particularly, we sped up the widely used LASSO algorithm by over 2x, designed quantum circuit routing policies that reduce gate overhead by 24.5%, and discovered new Erdos minimum overlap constructions that surpass the best-known results. Beyond novel discoveries, SimpleTES produces trajectory-level histories that naturally supervise feedback-driven learning. When post-trained on successful trajectories, models not only improve efficiency on seen problems but also generalize to unseen problems, discovering solutions that base models fail to uncover. Together, our results establish effective evaluation-driven loop scaling as a central axis for advancing LLM-driven scientific discovery, and provide a simple yet practical framework for realizing these gains.
Apr 19, 2026cs.LG

How Much Data is Enough? The Zeta Law of Discoverability in Biomedical Data, featuring the enigmatic Riemann zeta function

How much data is enough to make a scientific discovery? As biomedical datasets scale to millions of samples and AI models grow in capacity, progress increasingly depends on predicting when additional data will substantially improve performance. In practice, model development often relies on empirical scaling curves measured across architectures, modalities, and dataset sizes, with limited theoretical guidance on when performance should improve, saturate, or exhibit cross-over behavior. We propose a scaling-law framework for cross-modal discoverability based on spectral structure of data covariance operators, task-aligned signal projections, and learned representations. Many performance metrics, including AUC, can be expressed in terms of cumulative signal-to-noise energy accumulated across identifiable spectral modes of an encoder and cross-modal operator. Under mild assumptions, this accumulation follows a zeta-like scaling law governed by power-law decay of covariance spectra and aligned signal energy, leading naturally to the appearance of the Riemann zeta function. Representation learning methods such as sparse models, low-rank embeddings, and multimodal contrastive objectives improve sample efficiency by concentrating useful signal into earlier stable modes, effectively steepening spectral decay and shifting scaling curves. The framework predicts cross-over regimes in which simpler models perform best at small sample sizes, while higher-capacity or multimodal encoders outperform them once sufficient data stabilizes additional degrees of freedom. Applications include multimodal disease classification, imaging genetics, functional MRI, and topological data analysis. The resulting zeta law provides a principled way to anticipate when scaling data, improving representations, or adding modalities is most likely to accelerate discovery.
Mar 18, 2026cs.LG

DiscoGen: Procedural Generation of Algorithm Discovery Tasks in Machine Learning

Automating the development of machine learning algorithms has the potential to unlock new breakthroughs. However, our ability to improve and evaluate algorithm discovery systems has thus far been limited by existing task suites. They suffer from many issues, such as: poor evaluation methodologies; data contamination; and containing saturated or very similar problems. Here, we introduce DiscoGen, a procedural generator of algorithm discovery tasks for machine learning, such as developing optimisers for reinforcement learning or loss functions for image classification. Motivated by the success of procedural generation in reinforcement learning, DiscoGen spans billions of tasks of varying difficulty and complexity from a range of machine learning fields. These tasks are specified by a small number of configuration parameters and can be used to optimise algorithm discovery agents (ADAs). We present DiscoBench, a fixed, small subset of DiscoGen tasks for principled evaluation of ADAs. Finally, we propose a number of ambitious, impactful research directions enabled by DiscoGen, and demonstrate its use for ADA optimisation through scaling experiments for automated prompt tuning. DiscoGen is released open-source at https://github.com/AlexGoldie/discogen.
Feb 20, 2026cs.AI

Decoding ML Decision: An Agentic Reasoning Framework for Large-Scale Ranking System

Modern large-scale ranking systems operate within a sophisticated landscape of competing objectives, operational constraints, and evolving product requirements. Progress in this domain is increasingly bottlenecked by the engineering context constraint: the arduous process of translating ambiguous product intent into reasonable, executable, verifiable hypotheses, rather than by modeling techniques alone. We present GEARS (Generative Engine for Agentic Ranking Systems), a framework that reframes ranking optimization as an autonomous discovery process within a programmable experimentation environment. Rather than treating optimization as static model selection, GEARS leverages Specialized Agent Skills to encapsulate ranking expert knowledge into reusable reasoning capabilities, enabling operators to steer systems via high-level intent vibe personalization. Furthermore, to ensure production reliability, the framework incorporates validation hooks to enforce statistical robustness and filter out brittle policies that overfit short-term signals. Experimental validation across diverse product surfaces demonstrates that GEARS consistently identifies superior, near-Pareto-efficient policies by synergizing algorithmic signals with deep ranking context while maintaining rigorous deployment stability.
Feb 20, 2026cs.LG

A Probabilistic Framework for LLM-Based Model Discovery

Automated methods for discovering mechanistic simulator models from observational data offer a promising path toward accelerating scientific progress. Such methods often take the form of agentic-style iterative workflows that repeatedly propose and revise candidate models by imitating human discovery processes. However, existing LLM-based approaches typically implement such workflows via hand-crafted heuristic procedures, without an explicit probabilistic formulation. We recast model discovery as probabilistic inference, i.e., as sampling from an unknown distribution over mechanistic models capable of explaining the data. This perspective provides a unified way to reason about model proposal, refinement, and selection within a single inference framework. As a concrete instantiation of this view, we introduce ModelSMC, an algorithm based on Sequential Monte Carlo sampling. ModelSMC represents candidate models as particles which are iteratively proposed and refined by an LLM, and weighted using likelihood-based criteria. Experiments on real-world scientific systems illustrate that this formulation discovers models with interpretable mechanisms and improves posterior predictive checks. More broadly, this perspective provides a probabilistic lens for understanding and developing LLM-based approaches to model discovery.
Jan 19, 2026cs.CL

Paid Voices vs. Public Feeds: Interpretable Cross-Platform Theme-Based Analysis of Climate Discourse

Climate discourse online shapes public understanding of climate change and informs political and policy debate, yet it unfolds across structurally different environments: paid advertising platforms host targeted, institutionally produced messaging, while public social media reflects largely organic, user-driven discussion. We present a comparative analysis of climate discourse across paid advertisements on Meta (previously Facebook) and public posts on Bluesky from July 2024 to September 2025. To support it, we develop an interpretable thematic discovery pipeline that clusters texts by semantic similarity and uses large language models (LLMs) to label clusters with concise, human-interpretable themes, requiring no predefined topic inventory or seed set. Using these themes, we find the two environments diverge systematically: paid advertising centers on strategic promotion of specific solutions in a formal, forward-looking register, whereas organic discourse centers on systemic critique in a crisis-oriented, scientifically grounded one. We also evaluate the utility of the discovered themes through downstream stance prediction and theme-guided retrieval tasks. While our analysis focuses on climate communication, the framework generalizes to comparative thematic analysis across heterogeneous communication environments.
Nov 12, 2025math.DS

When is a System Discoverable from Data? Discovery Requires Chaos

The deep learning revolution has spurred a rise in advances of using AI in sciences. Within physical sciences the main focus has been on discovery of dynamical systems from observational data. Yet the reliability of learned surrogates and symbolic models is often undermined by the fundamental problem of non-uniqueness. The resulting models may fit the available data perfectly, but lack genuine predictive power. This raises the question: under what conditions can the systems governing equations be uniquely identified from a finite set of observations? We show, counter-intuitively, that chaos, typically associated with unpredictability, is crucial for ensuring a system is discoverable in the space of continuous or analytic functions. The prevalence of chaotic systems in benchmark datasets may have inadvertently obscured this fundamental limitation. More concretely, we show that systems chaotic on their entire domain are discoverable from a single trajectory within the space of continuous functions, and systems chaotic on a strange attractor are analytically discoverable under a geometric condition on the attractor. As a consequence, we demonstrate for the first time that the classical Lorenz system is analytically discoverable. Moreover, we establish that analytic discoverability is impossible in the presence of first integrals, common in real-world systems. These findings help explain the success of data-driven methods in inherently chaotic domains like weather forecasting, while revealing a significant challenge for engineering applications like digital twins, where stable, predictable behavior is desired. For these non-chaotic systems, we find that while trajectory data alone is insufficient, certain prior physical knowledge can help ensure discoverability. These findings warrant a critical re-evaluation of the fundamental assumptions underpinning purely data-driven discovery.
Nov 3, 2025econ.EM

Making Interpretable Discoveries from Unstructured Data: A High-Dimensional Multiple Hypothesis Testing Approach

Social scientists are increasingly turning to unstructured datasets to unlock new empirical insights, e.g., estimating descriptive statistics of or causal effects on quantitative measures derived from text, audio, or video data. In many settings, unsupervised analysis is of primary interest, in that the researcher does not want to (or cannot) manually pre-specify all important aspects of the unstructured data to measure; they are interested in "discovery." This paper proposes a general and flexible framework for pursuing such discovery from unstructured data in a statistically principled way. The framework leverages recent methods from the literature on AI interpretability to map unstructured data points to high-dimensional, sparse, and interpretable "concept embeddings"; computes statistics from these concept embeddings for testing interpretable, concept-by-concept hypotheses; performs selective inference on these hypotheses using algorithms validated by new results in high-dimensional central limit theory, producing a selected set ("discoveries"); and both generates and evaluates human-interpretable natural language descriptions of these discoveries. The proposed framework has few researcher degrees of freedom, is robust to data snooping and other post-selection inference concerns, and facilitates fast and inexpensive sensitivity analysis and replication. Applications to recent descriptive and causal analyses of unstructured data in empirical economics are explored.
Jun 30, 2025cs.LG

Position: Use Sparse Autoencoders to Discover Unknowns

While sparse autoencoders (SAEs) have generated significant excitement, a series of negative results have added to skepticism about their usefulness. Here, we establish a conceptual distinction that reconciles competing narratives surrounding SAEs. We argue that even if SAEs may be less effective for \textit{acting on known concepts}, SAEs are especially powerful tools for \textit{discovering unknown concepts}. This distinction separates existing negative results from positive results, and suggests several classes of SAE applications. Specifically, we outline use cases for SAEs in (i) ML interpretability, explainability, fairness, auditing, and safety, and (ii) social and health sciences.
Oct 14, 2024eess.SY

Automated Discovery of Operable Dynamics from Videos

Dynamical systems form the foundation of scientific discovery, traditionally modeled with predefined state variables such as the angle and angular velocity, and differential equations such as the equation of motion for a single pendulum. We introduce a framework that automatically discovers a low-dimensional and operable representation of system dynamics, including a set of compact state variables that preserve the smoothness of the system dynamics and a differentiable vector field, directly from video without requiring prior domain-specific knowledge. The prominence and effectiveness of the proposed approach are demonstrated through both quantitative and qualitative analyses of a range of dynamical systems, including the identification of stable equilibria, the prediction of natural frequencies, and the detection of chaotic and limit cycle behaviors. The results highlight the potential of our data-driven approach to advance automated scientific discovery.