Power-Law Distribution

Scenario optimization, conformal prediction, and related distribution-free certification methods use finite samples to construct decisions or prediction sets with violation-risk guarantees for fresh observations. In several classical settings, the conditional violation risk follows an exact beta law, whose tail has a beta-binomial representation and whose parameter is a support, calibration, or compression dimension. This paper identifies the deterministic boundary mechanism behind these formulas and derives the corresponding law when the observed boundary size is random. A decision rule is represented by an acceptance set for future observations, together with a boundary map selecting the sample points responsible for that set. The resulting pair is called a {\em proper projective boundary scheme} when held-out samples are accepted precisely if the full-sample boundary is retained, and accepted non-boundary samples can be deleted without changing that boundary. For every such scheme, the conditional law of the violation risk given the observed boundary size is determined by the boundary's cross-sample complexity profile. A stable profile yields the usual beta law, whereas a varying profile produces an exact profile correction. The framework covers scalar order-statistic calibration, support-reconstructive scenario programs, cascaded support-removal certificates, coordinatewise envelopes, and Pareto-frontier calibration with vector scores. It also yields conditional probabilistic certificates and a no-go result explaining why observed complexity alone is insufficient.

Neural networks trained by gradient descent on a smooth cost function can nevertheless learn in steps: the cost holds on long plateaus and then drops abruptly. Meanwhile, training losses instead follow smooth power laws. Variants of both behaviors occur in architectures with very different microscopic structures, which is the signature of a few relevant collective variables. We show that a symmetry fixes what those variables are: a network layer is a sum over interchangeable units, so relabeling the units leaves it unchanged; given smoothness and the condition that a unit's gradient vanish at the origin, symmetry then enforces a universal leading form for the expansion about the near-zero weights present at the start of training, the quadratic $\Tr[WW^{\top}A(x)]$, in which every architectural detail is confined to a single structure matrix" $A(x)$ that we compute for each architecture. Perceptrons, attention layers, mixtures of experts, and convolutions become one model at different $A$. Its training dynamics then close on the order parameter" $M=WW^{\top}$ and, whenever the data matrices share an eigenbasis, reduce to a Lotka--Volterra equation whose modes switch on one after another. The smaller the initial weights, the further apart the switch-on times, and the plateaus appear as a singular limit of a smooth flow; when many modes are unresolved the same events merge into a power law in training time whose exponent the theory predicts. We confirm both numerically across training methods and architectures.

Prior classical-ML learning-curve work fits power laws to tree, linear, and kernel models on tabular data, but at small scale: typically one curve, one team, a handful of cells. We present a distributed classroom-scale replication: 127 graduate students each ran a fixed protocol on 3 assigned datasets, drawn from 18 tabular classification and regression datasets and 6 model families (Boosting, Random Forest, SVM, Linear/Logistic, Ridge, Lasso), yielding 11,536 training runs and 1,648 fitted power-law curves of the form error(N) = a N^(-b) + c. Three findings. (1) Power laws fit: R^2 > 0.8 on 77.7% of cells, with tree ensembles dominating at full data (Boosting 50% of datasets, RandomForest 33%; linear models underperform on classification). (2) Approximate shared exponents within a model family: for 5 of 6 families, a single family-level exponent predicts each family's cross-dataset curves nearly as well as per-dataset exponents (R^2 gap < 0.011), though AIC favors the unconstrained fit and curve collapse is partial (32-58% of points within +/-0.5 dex). We frame this as approximate predictive compressibility, not dataset-independent universality; Lasso fails outright (negative control) and Ridge is fragile under leave-one-dataset-out. (3) Replicator-implementation variance: with random_state=42 fixed, independent re-implementations of the same protocol still differ by mean CV(b) = 0.144 on the fitted exponent -- not seed variance, but the spread induced by unconstrained parts of the protocol (preprocessing, encoding, missing-value handling). We release the aggregated curves, per-cell fits, and a practical data-requirement table for N* to reach target error 0.15.

For low-dimensional problems ($d\leq3$), spectral methods can achieve exceptionally high accuracy. For middle-dimensional problems ($4 \leq d \lesssim 10$), spectral methods remain feasible through specific techniques such as sparse grids or hyperbolic cross. However, for high-dimensional problems ($d\gg 10$), spectral methods suffer frome the curse of dimensionality. Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a promising approach to overcome this challenge, offering scalability to high dimensions, but often suffer from limited accuracy and efficiency. Recently proposed spectral-informed neural networks (SINNs) combine spectral methods with PINNs, operating directly in the spectral domain to avoid spatial derivative computations and to reduce memory consumption. In this work, we introduce Modified SINNs, which integrate coefficient decay scaling and basis embeddings motivated by harmonic analysis to enhance accuracy in high-dimensional problems and enable accurate approximation of unknown spectral coefficients. Numerical experiments on steady and time-dependent partial differential equations demonstrate that Modified SINNs outperform sparse grid spectral methods on middle-dimensional problems with incomplete spectral information and achieve superior accuracy compared to PINNs on high-dimensional problems.

Long-range learning is hard for recurrent networks trained with stochastic gradient descent, because the influence of a past input fades with the lag $\ell$, and if it fades too fast the dependence cannot be learned from finite data. This fade is captured by an envelope $f(\ell)$. An exponential fade makes the data needed to learn a lag-$\ell$ dependence grow exponentially, putting long horizons out of reach; a power-law fade keeps the cost polynomial. We show that the asymptotic decay class of $f(\ell)$ is not fixed by the architecture. Instead, it emerges from the coupling between the state dynamics and parameter dynamics, settling into either a collapsed regime (fast, exponential forgetting) or an extended, anti-collapsed regime (slow, power-law forgetting). The intuition is a competition within these coupled dynamics. Training drives the network's effective time scales toward short ones, while rare, heavy-tailed fluctuations of the learning dynamics push a few of them to very long values. The extended regime survives only when these heavy-tailed pushes are strong enough to balance the pull. We make this mathematically precise with a coarse-grained stochastic process and prove exactly when the extended regime exists. A single exponent, the spectral exponent~$β$, then governs both the spread of time scales and how slowly the network forgets. Realizing the regime in practice needs one more ingredient: the joint action of the architecture and the optimizer must be able to hold such a broad spread. A network whose capacity to generate broad time-scale spectra is severely constrained still collapses, even when supplied with strong heavy-tailed forcing. Heavy-tailed fluctuations thus act not as noise to be suppressed, but as the mechanism that sustains long-range learning.

Understanding how performance scales jointly with model size and data is a central problem in modern machine learning. Existing theoretical works on scaling laws typically describe generalization as a function of data or compute, often in fixed-feature or infinite-width regimes and for online SGD. Here, we instead study how generalization scales with the number of trainable parameters and the number of samples in a feature-learning model. We analyze $\ell_2$-regularized empirical test error minimization in a quadratic two-layer network in a finite-sample setting with structured data. This setting allows for an explicit characterization of the generalization error as a function of the number of samples, model width, and regularization. Our results reveal a phase diagram with distinct scaling regimes as the number of parameters varies. In particular, the generalization error follows data-dependent power laws controlled by the spectral structure of the target. We further characterize the transitions between regimes, including the onset of interpolation, and their impact on generalization.

The proliferation of recursive training on synthetic data can alleviate data scarcity but risks model collapse, where repeated training erodes distributional tails and homogenizes outputs. Data selection is widely viewed as a remedy, yet its reliability depends critically on the reference distribution used by the verifier. We show that in low-resource verification regimes, where each verifier observes only a small, fragmented, and biased slice of the target manifold, selection itself becomes biased. This situation naturally arises in low-resource data silos such as healthcare consortia or proprietary financial institutions, where raw data cannot be pooled and local references are inherently incomplete. As a result, selection preferentially retains samples aligned with the local manifold while pruning globally relevant tail modes, turning from a safeguard against collapse into a mechanism that precipitates it. We theoretically prove that such siloed selection accelerates collapse and induces power-law diversity decay. As an initial mitigation, we construct Wasserstein proxy references from multiple silos without sharing raw data. Empirical results confirm that local-reference selection fails on skewed distributions, whereas collaborative proxy references mitigate diversity degradation, suggesting that recursive synthetic-data pipelines require particular caution when real-data coverage is fragmented or scarce.

We investigate whether neuron populations within neural networks evolve predictably with scale, extending scaling laws beyond macroscopic observables such as loss. To probe this question, we study Rosetta Neurons, a previously characterized class of neurons whose activation patterns are similar across independently trained models (Dravid et al., 2023). In separate analyses of language models up to 30B parameters and vision models up to 5B parameters, we observe that the population of Rosetta Neurons follows a sublinear power law in model size, growing in absolute number but occupying a shrinking fraction of the total neuron count. We further observe a Neuron Polarization Effect: Rosetta Neurons become more selective and increasingly monosemantic with scale, separating from a growing non-Rosetta population that remains less selective. An analytical model balancing feature utility against limited neuron capacity explains the sublinear power-law scaling and this polarization effect. Finally, we find that Rosetta Neurons become more domain-specialized with scale and illustrate their selectivity through a targeted data-filtering case study for continued pretraining. Our results point to a scaling law for interpretable, shared neuron-level structure, linking model size to systematic changes in neuron universality, selectivity, and specialization.

Obtaining stable diffusion-based samplers in high- and infinite-dimensional settings is challenging because errors can accumulate across high-frequency coordinates and make the dynamics unstable under refinement of the finite-dimensional approximation of the underlying function-space problem. Discretization is a typical source of such errors, and preconditioning with a suitable spectral decay is one way to control their accumulation. In this paper, we study this problem for preconditioned annealed Langevin dynamics (ALD) applied to Gaussian mixtures. We first show that Euler-Maruyama (EM) discretization, by treating the stiff linear part of the annealed score with a forward Euler step, imposes a stability constraint coupling the preconditioner with the annealed covariance scale. Together with the conditions ensuring dimension-uniform control of the annealed dynamics, this constraint forces the initial smoothed law to remain uniformly close to the target across dimensions. We then consider an exponential-integrator scheme that integrates the stiff linear part of the annealed score exactly. Under explicit spectral summability conditions coupling the smoothing covariance, the component covariance spectra, and the preconditioner, we prove a dimension-uniform Kullback-Leibler (KL) bound for this scheme. This bound can be made arbitrarily small, uniformly in dimension, by allowing enough time for annealing and then refining the time mesh accordingly. Importantly, these conditions allow regimes in which the KL divergence between the target and the initial smoothed law diverges with dimension, showing that the restrictions imposed by EM are scheme-dependent rather than intrinsic to ALD.

We investigate growth dynamics in deterministic equational discovery substrates. Across three toy domains (arithmetic, boolean, higher-order list; n=592 trajectories), short-range substrate sizes fit a power-law N(t) proportional to t^b. Within each substrate b is architecture-sensitive (cross-validated R^2 approximately 0.82); the regression does not transfer across substrates (arith+bool to list yields R^2 approximately -0.84). A heuristic mean-field closure model predicts a saturating power-law dN/dt = K N^k exp(-mu N) of which the pure power-law is the short-range approximation. Three robustness checks: bootstrap intervals on (k, mu) are tight in 4/5 toy trajectories and degenerate in 1/5; out-of-sample forecasting on toy data (fit first 100 epochs, predict next 400) is won by pure power-law 5/5, indicating the toy trajectories do not reach saturation; on two real-world growth proxies the result splits. New Mathlib/*.lean file additions per month (mathlib4, 60 months, 9701 files) support the saturating form on OOS forecasting by approximately 7x over pure power-law; Coq mathcomp monthly commits (129 months, 3083 commits) favour pure power-law on both tests with mu collapsing to zero. The dynamics are substrate-conditional at two levels: within-substrate architecture-to-b regressions do not transfer, and the preferred functional family for N(t) itself (pure vs. saturating power-law) differs by substrate. We propose "saturating power-law growth with substrate-conditional (k, mu), observable when the substrate has reached its saturation regime" as a working framing.

Standard Transformers impose near-exponential decay on the influence of distant tokens, conflicting with the power-law structure of long-range dependencies in natural language. We introduce the \emph{Variable-Order Retention Transformer} (\VORT{}), a memory architecture in which each ingested token is assigned a learnable fractional order α_i\in[δ,1] that governs a Grünwald--Letnikov power-law retention kernel. Because the fractional weighted sum is non-Markovian, we approximate it through a sum-of-exponentials (SOE) decomposition computed by Gauss--Laguerre quadrature on a Laplace-type integral representation of the kernel weights. Each exponential component admits a one-step Markovian recurrence at O(Sd_v) per step, where S=O(\log(T/\varepsilon)) terms suffice for \varepsilon-uniform accuracy on horizon [1,T]. Retrieval is keyed and associative via a linear-attention accumulator with an exact O(KSd_φd_v) -per-step recurrence. Four results are established: (i) an SOE approximation theorem with geometric convergence rate from the analyticity of the integrand after a log-change of variables; (ii) a quantisation bound valid on [δ,1] with correct analysis near α=0; (iii) a direct L^2 energy argument (Proposition) showing that for α>1/2 any mixture with fixed minimum decay rate Λ>0 incurs L^2([1,T]) error at least N_α(T)-C(Λ)\to\infty, with the Λ-dependence made explicit; and (iv) linear convergence of a gradient plasticity rule under the Polyak--Łojasiewicz condition. Two synthetic experiments confirm the architectural advantage: a Zipf-distributed retrieval benchmark and an entity label-copy task with uniform lag distribution, the latter ruling out prior-matching as an explanation for the power-law kernel's advantage.

We present TailedTS, a large-scale benchmark dataset derived from Wikipedia hourly page view observations throughout 2024, specifically designed to test time series forecasting models under heavy-tailed, zero-inflated, and non-Gaussian conditions. The dataset comprises approximately 24.69 billion data points spanning roughly 3 million unique Wikipedia pages per month, stored in high-efficiency Apache Parquet format. Wikipedia traffic follows a pronounced power-law distribution where roughly 5% of pages account for over 70% of total page views, creating a natural and rigorous testbed for model robustness against extreme volatility that are absent from or underrepresented in existing benchmarks such as M4, M5, and UCI electricity datasets. TailedTS enables several research tasks. First, we introduce a periodicity quantification framework based on sparse autoregression with sparsity and non-negativity constraints, revealing that frequently-viewed pages exhibit significantly weaker periodic structure than their less-viewed counterparts, showing direct implications for server allocation and traffic forecasting on large digital platforms. Second, we provide standardized prediction benchmarks evaluated under a suite of non-Gaussian loss functions, including $\ell_1$-norm, Huber, quantile, and $\ell_p$-norm losses, demonstrating that standard Gaussian-based estimators degrade substantially on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives provide consistent gains across all traffic scales. TailedTS is publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17070469.

Autonomous experimentation has transformed microscopy and materials discovery by enabling closed-loop optimization including imaging and spectroscopy tuning, strucutre property relationship discovery, and exploration of combinatorial libraries. However, most current workflows remain limited to selecting measurements within fixed objective or hypothesis spaces, rather than generating new physical models from experimental data. Here, we introduce an open hypothesis-learning framework that combines symbolic regression with large-language-model-based physical evaluation and implement it for autonomous scanning probe microscopy. Symbolic regression generates candidate analytical relationships directly from sparse measurements, while the language-model evaluator ranks these candidates according to physical plausibility, scaling behavior, and consistency with known mechanisms. We demonstrate the approach on autonomous piezoresponse force microscopy measurements of ferroelectric domain switching in a PZT thin film. Starting from five seed measurements, the workflow evolves from physically incomplete candidate expressions toward interpretable voltage-time growth laws consistent with kinetic domain-wall motion. This work extends autonomous microscopy from closed-loop optimization toward open hypothesis discovery, where candidate physical laws emerge from the experiment itself rather than being specified in advance. More broadly, the framework establishes a route for integrating symbolic regression, physical reasoning, and adaptive experimentation into hierarchical autonomous scientific workflows.

Natural language data follows a power-law distribution, with most knowledge and skills appearing at very low frequency. While a common intuition suggests that reweighting or curating data towards a uniform distribution may help models better learn these long-tail skills, we find a counterintuitive result: across a wide range of compositional reasoning tasks, such as state tracking and multi-step arithmetic, training under power-law distributions consistently outperforms training under uniform distributions. To understand this advantage, we introduce a minimalist skill-composition task and show that learning under a power-law distribution provably requires significantly less training data. Our theoretical analysis reveals that power law sampling induces a beneficial asymmetry that improves the pathological loss landscape, which enables models to first acquire high-frequency skill compositions with low data complexity, which in turn serves as a stepping stone to efficiently learn rare long-tailed skills. Our results offer an alternative perspective on what constitutes an effective data distribution for training models.

Modern sequence modeling is dominated by two families: Transformers, whose self-attention can access arbitrary elements of the visible sequence, and structured state-space models, which propagate information through an explicit recurrent state. These mechanisms face different limitations on long contexts: when attention is diffuse, the influence of individual tokens is diluted across the effective support, while recurrent state propagation can lose long-range sensitivity unless information is actively preserved. As a result, both mechanisms face challenges in preserving and selectively retrieving information over long contexts. We propose Sessa, a decoder that places attention inside a recurrent feedback path. This creates many attention-based paths through which past tokens can influence future states, rather than relying on a single attention read or a single recurrent chain. We prove that, under explicit assumptions and matched regimes, Sessa admits power-law memory tails $O(\ell^{-β})$ for $0 < β< 1$, with slower decay than in the corresponding Transformer and Mamba-style baselines. We further give an explicit construction that achieves this power-law rate. Under the same assumptions, Sessa is the only model class among those considered that realizes flexible selective retrieval, including profiles whose influence does not decay with distance. Consistent with this theoretical advantage, across matched experiments, Sessa achieves the strongest performance on long-context benchmarks while remaining competitive with Transformer and Mamba-style baselines on short-context language modeling.

The performance of large language models (LLMs) on verifiable tasks is usually measured by pass@k, the probability of answering a question correctly at least once in k trials. At a fixed budget, a more suitable metric is coverage@cost, the average number of unique questions answered as a function of the total number of attempts. We connect the two metrics and show that the empirically-observed power-law behavior in pass@k leads to a sublinear growth of the coverage@cost (diminishing returns). To solve this problem, we propose Reset-and-Discard (ReD), a query method of LLMs that increases coverage@cost for a given budget, regardless of the pass@k form. Moreover, given a pass@k, we can quantitatively predict the savings in the total number of attempts using ReD. If pass@k is not available for the model, ReD can infer its power-law exponent. Experiments on three LLMs across coding (HumanEval), math (GSM8K), and reasoning (MMLU-Pro) benchmarks demonstrate that ReD substantially reduces the required attempts, tokens, and USD cost to reach a desired coverage, while also offering an efficient way to measure inference power-laws. ReD's advantage is maintained for imperfect verifiers and outperforms the tested allocation baselines.

We inspect the deductive connection between the neural scaling law and Zipf's law -- two statements discussed in machine learning and quantitative linguistics. The neural scaling law describes how the cross entropy rate of a foundation model -- such as a large language model -- changes with respect to the amount of training tokens, parameters, and compute. By contrast, Zipf's law posits that the distribution of tokens exhibits a power law tail. Whereas similar claims have been made in more specific settings, we show that the neural scaling law is a consequence of Zipf's law under certain broad assumptions that we reveal systematically. The derivation steps are as follows: We derive Heaps' law on the vocabulary growth from Zipf's law, Hilberg's hypothesis on the entropy scaling from Heaps' law, and the neural scaling from Hilberg's hypothesis. We illustrate these inference steps by a toy example of the Santa Fe process that satisfies all four statistical laws.

Despite their widespread use, the principles governing the organisation of syntactic dependency trees remain poorly understood. I analyse dependency trees from 124 typologically, genetically, and geographically diverse languages. Their topology departs systematically from randomness. Relative to uniformly sampled random trees, dependency trees exhibit greater structural robustness and lower branching heterogeneity. I propose that these universal regularities emerge naturally from incremental grammatical encoding. I model this process using sublinear preferential attachment. The model accurately reproduces the observed topology. More generally, the results demonstrate how a universal statistical property of syntax can emerge from a simple, cognitively motivated generative process. They further illustrate a broader principle of efficiency by construction: communicatively efficient syntactic structures can emerge without direct optimisation for communication.