Probabilistic Forecasting

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9 papers in the last four weeks, up 80% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 6Week of Sep 21

Latest papers 52

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Variational Streaming Flow: Probabilistic Forecasting in Physical Time
Oct 1, 2026Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu, Minseon Gwak, Soon Hoe Lim +2Probabilistic Forecasting Velocity Field
Georgia Institute of Technology · Lawrence Berkeley National Lab · International Computer Science Institute +2
GARDiff: Graph-Aligned Residual Diffusion for Probabilistic Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
Sep 29, 2026Rui Han, Min Yang, Xu Zhang +3Residual Conditional Diffusion Model Probabilistic Forecasting
Shandong University, Jinan, China · Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia · China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao, China +1
Probabilistic electrical power demand forecasting with uncertainty quantification
Sep 28, 2026Mahesh Neupane, Pragya Dhungana, Pradip Khatri +2Electricity Price Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Interconnection and Numbering Section Nepal Telecommunications Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Nepal Electricity Authority Kathmandu, Nepal · Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care University of Bergen Bergen, Norway +1
Lightweight Probabilistic Downscaling from a Deterministic Base Model
Sep 24, 2026Joseph McLean, Tiffany Vlaar, Sigrid Passano Hellan +1Dynamical Downscaling Probabilistic Forecasting
University of Glasgow · Climate System and Climate Services, NORCE Research AS and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
fable.intermittent: benchmarking probabilistic forecasting methods for intermittent time series
Sep 23, 2026Stefano Damato, Lorenzo Zambon, Giorgio Corani +1Probabilistic Forecasting Time Series
SUPSI, Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), Lugano, Switzerland
PROSWIN: Probabilistic Solar Wind Speed Forecasting Using Deep Distributional Regression From Solar Images
Sep 22, 2026Daniel Collin, Yuri Shprits, Luca Chiarabini +3Geomagnetic Storms Probabilistic Forecasting
Space Physics and Space Weather, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany · Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Technical University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany · Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany +5
$t_0$ : A Time-Series Foundation Model for Forecasting with Context
Sep 21, 2026Lucas Meyer, Claudio Sole, Huikan Xiang +6Time Series Foundation Models Probabilistic Forecasting
The Forecasting Company · Macrocosm
TEMPER: Temporal Encoder-Masked Probabilistic Ensemble Regressor for Time-Series Forecasting
Sep 20, 2026Giancarlo VercellinoTime Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Independent researcher
Goal-oriented probabilistic forecasting for dynamic PRB allocation in 5G networks
Sep 15, 2026Oier Larumbe-Lizarraga, Roberto Pereira, Cristian J. Vaca-RubioProbabilistic Forecasting
Universidad Isabel I, Burgos, Spain · Keysight Technologies, Barcelona, Spain · Ericsson Research, Stockholm, Sweden
DynG-Diff: A State-Aware Dynamic Guidance Diffusion Framework for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Sep 2, 2026Zhente Zhang, Zhengwei Ni, Wei FanMultivariate Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
School of Information and Electronic Engineering (Sussex Artificial Intelligence Institute), Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China · School of Computer Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
OutageDiT: A Generative Foundation Model for Power Outage Forecasting and Scenario Simulation
Sep 1, 2026Yunqin Zhu, Feng Qiu, Yao XieProbabilistic Forecasting Data-Driven Forecasting
H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology · Argonne National Laboratory
LEAP: Likelihood Elicitation and Aggregation for LLM-based Probabilistic Forecasting
Sep 1, 2026Yufei Chen, Yiran Zhao, Xiaogang Xu +3Large Language Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
1Shandong University · 2Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics · School of Software Technology, Zhejiang University +2
CLaST: Context-aware Contrastive VAE for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Aug 20, 2026Alexander Marusov, Dmitry Anikin, Petr Sokerin +3Probabilistic Forecasting Time Series
Applied AI Institute Moscow, Russia
Defensive Boosting for Online Probabilistic Forecasting
Aug 13, 2026Georgy Noarov, Aaron RothProbabilistic Forecasting Learning-Augmented Algorithms
Two-stage Odd Residual Flows for Mean-Preserving Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
Aug 11, 2026Kiran Madhusudhanan, Christian Klötergens, Lars Schmidt-Thieme +1Probabilistic Forecasting Long-Horizon Forecasting
Institute of Computer Science University of Hildesheim Hildesheim, Germany
Real-time probabilistic tsunami forecasting via generative AI
Aug 5, 2026Yusuke Oishi, Takashi Furumura, Fumihiko ImamuraAccurate Flood Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
Fujitsu Research, Fujitsu Limited, Kawasaki, Japan. · Earthquake Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. · International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan.
Probabilistic Deep Learning for Drought Forecasting: Role of Internal Climate Variability
Aug 3, 2026Henri Funk, Cornelia Gruber, Göran Kauermann +2Probabilistic Forecasting Global Climate Models
Department of Statistics, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany · Department of Geography, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany
Crossing-Free Probabilistic K-Line Forecasts Without Retraining
Jul 29, 2026Runyao Yu, Yuchen Tao, Yujie Chen +2Probabilistic Forecasting Forecast
London Business School London, United Kingdom · RWTH Aachen University Aachen, Germany · The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shenzhen, China +1
Foundation Models and Fine-Tuning: Toward a New Generation of Models for Time Series Forecasting
Jul 25, 2026Morad Laglil, Bertrand Pracca, Emilie Devijver +1Zero-Shot Forecasting Time Series Forecasting
Savoye, 18 bd des Gorgets, 21000, Dijon, France · Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LIG, Grenoble, 38000, France
SPECTRA: State-Space Exogenous Context and Temporal-Frequency Resolution Architecture for Probabilistic Energy Forecasting
Jul 22, 2026Hang Ye, Xinyan Jiang, Yuedong Shi +5Probabilistic Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Shanghai Advanced Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 201210, China · University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China · School of Physical Science and Technology, Shanghaitech University, Shanghai 201210, China +2
Learning-based Probabilistic Load Forecasting with Post-hoc and In-model Uncertainty
Jul 14, 2026Sarah Al-Shareeda, Gulcihan Ozdemir, Heung Seok JeonAccurate Short-Term Electricity Load Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
aComputer System and Technology Department, Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, University of Malaya, Malaysia · bInformatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey · cComputer Engineering Department Konkuk University South Korea
Climate-Invariant Conformal Prediction Intervals for Multi-Horizon Solar and Wind Forecasting
Jul 13, 2026Shreedhar Gangwar, Abhinav Bains, Banalaxmi BrahmaEnergy Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
B. R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology, Jalandhar, India · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar National Institute of Technology Jalandhar, India
QuantFlow: A Federated Mamba-Based Post-Transformer Foundation Model for Time-Series Forecasting
Jul 2, 2026Shah Nawaz Haider, Steve Austin, Arnab Barua +2Time Series Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Science and Technology Chittagong · Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Science and Technology Chittagong · Faculty of Science, Engineering and Technology, University of Science and Technology Chittagong
Decision-Aware Training for Sample-Based Generative Models
Jul 1, 2026Kornelius Raeth, Nicole LudwigProbabilistic Forecasting Generative Models
T ubingen AI Center, University of T ubingen, Germany · University of Augsburg, Germany
TRIE: An Evaluation Framework for Stochastic PDE Surrogates
Jun 30, 2026Bharat Srikishan, Javier E. Santos, Nikhil Muralidhar +1Surrogate Models Probabilistic Forecasting
Stevens Institute of Technology · Los Alamos National Laboratory
Model selection with proper scoring rules on data sets of time series: prefer the mean scaled score
Jun 23, 2026Giorgio Corani, Stefano Damato, Dario Azzimonti +1Model Selection Probabilistic Forecasting
SUPSI, Istituto Dalle Molle di Studi sull’Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), Lugano, Switzerland
Navigating the Safety-Fidelity Trade-off: Massive-Variate Time Series Forecasting for Power Systems via Probabilistic Scenarios
Jun 11, 2026Kaijie Xu, Anqi Wang, Xilin DaiPower Systems Probabilistic Forecasting
ZJU-UIUC Institute Zhejiang University Hangzhou, China
Reliability of Probabilistic Emulation of Physical Systems
Jun 11, 2026Sam F. Greenbury, Radka Jersakova, Paolo Conti +4Probabilistic Forecasting Emulators
The Alan Turing Institute · Autodesk Research · PhysicsX +3
Investigating Calibration Challenges in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
Jun 8, 2026Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Benjamin SchäferElectricity Price Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Institute for Automation and Applied Informatics
Report the Floor: A Training-Free Conformal Interval Is a Mandatory Baseline for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
Jun 8, 2026Valery ManokhinProbabilistic Forecasting Online Conformal Prediction
Independent researcher.
ProbRes: Volatility Learning for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting
Jun 1, 2026Tingting Wang, Yunyi Zhang, Benyou WangProbabilistic Forecasting Volatility
School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
Stabilizing distribution-free probabilistic forecasts
May 27, 2026Jente Van Belle, Honglin Wen, Wouter Verbeke +1Probabilistic Forecasting Short-Horizon Forecasting
Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Belgium · Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China · Dyson School of Design Engineering, Imperial College London, United Kingdom +3
Aligning LLMs with Human Uncertainty: A Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator for LLM Forecasting
May 26, 2026Hui Dai, Ryan Teehan, Parsa Torabian +1Large Language Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Agentic Learning AI Lab, New York University · Chronologies AI
Valid and Expressive Copulas for Irregular Multivariate Time Series
May 22, 2026Christian Klötergens, Tom Hanika, Lars Schmidt-Thieme +1Gaussian Copula Multivariate Time-Series
Institute of Computer Science University of Hildesheim Hildesheim, Germany
Parametric Prior Mapping Framework for Non-stationary Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting
May 22, 2026Jinglin Li, Jun Tan, QI Fang +1Probabilistic Forecasting Multivariate Time-Series
School of Computer Science and Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, China.
PaP-NF: Probabilistic Long-Term Time Series Forecasting via Prefix-as-Prompt Reprogramming and Normalizing Flows
May 22, 2026Minju Kim, Youngbum HurProbabilistic Forecasting Time Series
Department of Industrial Engineering, Inha University, Incheon, Republic of Korea
Neural Negative Binomial Regression for Weekly Seismicity Forecasting: Per-Cell Dispersion Estimation and Tail Risk Assessment
May 20, 2026Alim IgilikFull Waveform Inversion Probabilistic Forecasting
[physics.geo-ph]
DeRegiME: Deep Regime Mixtures for Probabilistic Forecasting under Distribution Shift
May 19, 2026Kieran Wood, Stefan Zohren, Stephen J. RobertsProbabilistic Forecasting Distribution Shifts
Machine Learning Research Group, University of Oxford · Oxford-Man Institute, University of Oxford
PRB-RUPFormer: A Recursive Unified Probabilistic Transformer for Residual PRB Forecasting
May 14, 2026Saad Masrur, Yuxuan Jiang, Matti Hiltunen +2Probabilistic Forecasting Mobile Networks
AT&T RAN Technology, Bedminster, NJ · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
DeepLévy: Learning Heavy-Tailed Uncertainty in Highly Volatile Time Series
May 11, 2026Yang Yang, Du Yin, Hao Xue +1Probabilistic Forecasting Long-Tailed Distribution
University of New South Wales Australia NSW Sydney · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)
PixelFlowCast: Latent-Free Precipitation Nowcasting via Pixel Mean Flows
May 11, 2026Yufeng Zhu, Chunlei Shi, Yongchao Feng +1Precipitation Nowcasting Rainfall
Recipes for Calibration Checks in Safety-Critical Applications
Apr 29, 2026Romeo ValentinProbabilistic Forecasting Prediction Error
Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Stanford University Stanford, CA 94305, USA
Barrier-enforced multi-objective optimization for direct point and sharp interval forecasting
Apr 20, 2026Worachit Amnuaypongsa, Yotsapat Suparanonrat, Pana Wanitchollakit +1Probabilistic Forecasting Energy Forecasting
Department of Electrical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand · Department of Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models
Apr 19, 2026Kaito Goto, Naoya Takeishi, Takehisa YairiBetting Probabilistic Forecasting
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Assessing the Performance-Efficiency Trade-off of Foundation Models in Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting
Apr 16, 2026Jan Niklas Lettner, Hadeer El Ashhab, Veit Hagenmeyer +1Electricity Price Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology · Karlsruhe, Germany
Trustworthy Predictive Distributions for Tail Events with Semiparametric Diagnostic Transport Maps
Mar 11, 2026Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Rafael Izbicki, Ann B. LeeProbabilistic Forecasting Tropical Cyclones
Department of Statistics and Data Science, Carnegie Mellon University · Department of Statistics, Federal University of Sao Carlos
Deep Generative Spatiotemporal Engression for Probabilistic Forecasting of Epidemics
Mar 7, 2026Rajdeep Pathak, Tanujit ChakrabortyEpidemiological Models Probabilistic Forecasting
SAFIR, Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates · SCAI, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France
An intuitive rearranging of the Yates covariance decomposition for probabilistic verification of forecasts with the Brier score
Mar 4, 2026Bruno Hebling VieiraProbabilistic Forecasting Forecast
Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland · Methods of Plasticity Research, Department of Psychology, University of Zurich, Zurich,2026 Switzerland
Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Tree-Based Machine Learning and Weather Ensembles
Feb 13, 2026Max Bruninx, Diederik van Binsbergen, Timothy Verstraeten +2Offshore Wind Turbine Probabilistic Forecasting
Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium · Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
Probabilistic NDVI Forecasting from Sparse Satellite Time Series and Weather Covariates
Feb 4, 2026Irene Iele, Giulia Romoli, Daniele Molino +4Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Probabilistic Forecasting
Unit of Artificial Intelligence and Computer Systems, Universit`a Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Italy · Department of Diagnostics and Intervention, Biomedical Engineering and Radiation Physics, Ume˚a University, Sweden · Department of Naval, Electrical, Electronics and Telecommunications Engineering, University of Genoa, Italy
CRPS-LAM: Probabilistic Regional Weather Forecasting with Continuous Ranked Probability Score
Oct 10, 2025Erik Larsson, Joel Oskarsson, Tomas Landelius +1Probabilistic Forecasting Small Reasoning Model
Linköping University · ETH AI Center · SMHI & Linköping University
Double-Diffusion: Balancing Speed, Accuracy, and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Forecasting for Urban Sensor Networks
Jun 29, 2025Hanlin Dong, Arian Prabowo, Hao Xue +4Probabilistic Forecasting Diffusion Dynamics
University of New South Wales Sydney, Australia · University of Maryland College Park, United States · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) Guangzhou, China

Oct 1, 2026, cs.LGJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Variational Streaming Flow: Probabilistic Forecasting in Physical Time

Hans Hao-Hsun Hsu, Minseon Gwak, Soon Hoe Lim, Pan Li+1

Georgia Institute of Technology · Lawrence Berkeley National Lab · International Computer Science Institute+2

Probabilistic Forecasting Velocity Field Future Video Prediction Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures Streaming Single Trajectory

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Probabilistic forecasting is important for predicting complex dynamical systems because intrinsic randomness and incomplete observations can cause the same observed state to evolve into multiple plausible futures. While flow matching is a flexible approach for probabilistic forecasting, it is computationally expensive. Streaming flow (SF) reformulates this approach to model temporal evolution efficiently by learning a continuous velocity field directly in physical time. However, SF learns a deterministic velocity field. Thus, it provides only a single future trajectory for a given fixed initial state and observation history. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Variational Streaming Flow (VSF). Our approach learns a latent distribution that is conditioned on the dynamics of interest. In turn, this enables probabilistic forecasting. Importantly, we retain the computational efficiency of SF by generating in physical time. Across deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems, VSF demonstrates superior predictive accuracy and distributional fidelity. We demonstrate the advantage for both long-horizon rollouts exceeding 1,000 steps, and settings with bifurcating dynamics. Moreover, VSF can be integrated into existing Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA)-based world models as a plug-and-play predictor to improve temporal dynamics and goal-directed success rate in navigation, motion planning, and manipulation.

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Latest papers 52