Seismology

Implicit modeling and Relative Geologic Time are geological modeling techniques that enable more efficient, faster, less biased and more reproducible modeling results. For optimal operation, these techniques require many well-constrained input data. In the framework of the Horizon Europe GO-Forward and MOOI WarmingUP GOO projects and to accelerate Implicit modeling, Machine Learning (ML) methods have been tested and implemented in a toolkit for the interpretation of (onshore) seismic data from the shallow to deep range (+- 300 - 3500 m). The goal is to rapidly characterise this depth domain by efficient interpretation of horizons and faults in seismic data. The first step is to improve the signal by applying AI techniques like self-supervised and semi-supervised contrastive learning CNN's for noise reduction and interpolation. Next, horizons and faults are interpreted with minimal use of human-generated training data by using (semi-) self-supervised methods. The resulting developed toolkit supports the application of the implemented algorithms in an efficient workflow. As a first demonstration, the top of the Dutch Maassluis Formation has been interpreted in the Leeuwarden and Waalwijk 3D seismic cubes. Overall, this study demonstrates that AI-assisted interpretation workflows have reached a level of maturity that allows their integration into applied geological modeling and decision-making.

In marine seismic acquisition, seismic interference (SI) occurs when energy from nearby external seismic source(s) is captured. It typically appears as coherent noise with linear or non-linear movement and varying amplitudes across different sail lines. SI is commonly observed and poses a challenge for seismic data processing. We present a case history of a previously proposed deep neural network (DNN)-based workflow applied for SI attenuation across a marine seismic block in the Camie Field of Angola. This field survey covers over 345 km2 and is marked by the challenge of multiple SI types. The employed DNN-based workflow performs SI attenuation in the common shot domain based on a supervised learning framework: a small subset of the SI-contaminated data was first processed by a conventional geophysical algorithm to obtain an estimate of the SI noise, which was then manually blended with the SI-free common shot gathers from the same survey to generate the training pairs. To ensure signal fidelity, several techniques were applied to improve the DNN's performance. A key highlight of this case history is its scale: this represents a real-world, large-scale processing project and we present a comprehensive comparison of the DNN-based workflow with the conventional geophysical algorithm across the entire survey block, focusing on both processing quality and processing time. The results demonstrate the outstanding performance of the employed DNN-based workflow, which achieved higher SI removal accuracy, with less signal leakage and more complete SI removal. The promising results of this application also open up possibilities for integrating deep learning into other seismic denoising tasks. In addition, we discuss the limitations of this case history, aiming to provide insights for future research and applications in the field.

Numerical site-response predictions often deviate from observations, yet correcting these discrepancies is difficult because records are limited in both sensor coverage and number of events. This study proposes the Transfer-Enabled Forced Latent Autoencoder for Response Equations (FLARE-T) to improve these predictions by learning and calibrating low-dimensional latent dynamics that connect the base acceleration input to acceleration outputs at multiple depths. FLARE-T learns a low-dimensional response manifold and input-driven dynamics from dense finite-element simulations. It then trains a sparse encoder to map simulated sensor responses into the learned coordinates and uses limited records to calibrate the dynamics within them. A short response window initializes each prediction, while the complete base motion drives the response. The framework was evaluated using a layered-soil centrifuge test and the Lotung field vertical array. Test-set results show that FLARE-T improved multi-depth acceleration histories and 5%-damped pseudoacceleration response spectra relative to the original finite-element models, reducing errors at every evaluated sensor for motions of different intensities and, at Lotung, for both horizontal components. Two Lotung source models with different constitutive parameters achieved comparable test-set accuracy, indicating reduced dependence on precise prior calibration. FLARE-T therefore provides a data-efficient means of combining dense numerical response information with limited field records to improve future site-response predictions.

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising approach for solving Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), offering a meshfree alternative that integrates physical principles into the learning process. This presents a new paradigm compared to traditional discretization methods and purely data-driven machine learning techniques. While promising, PINNs are not a panacea; they inherit challenges such as spectral bias and unstable convergence. Moreover, their potential in seismology remains largely unexplored. In this work, we provide a robust and critical assessment of PINNs for solving the elastic wave equation in seismology. We investigate the performance of PINNs on problems with varying degrees of complexity across various seismic sources and parameter models, from constant to highly heterogeneous settings. A pivotal aspect of our work involves investigating whether embedding physical principles directly into the network architecture enhances convergence and accuracy. We test an extensive range of neural architecture designs, from unrestricted, uninformed PINNs to highly specialized ones. We find that integrating an understanding of wave physics into the network design significantly improves accuracy. For instance, introducing a custom wavelet or plane wave layer, coupled with encoder and decoder layers, consistently yields a relative $L_2$ error approximately half that of the standard PINN, as evidenced across numerous experiments. We further demonstrate that this novel architecture enhances accuracy when applied to the acoustic wave equation, underlying the versatility of our network. Another key contribution of our research is the successful conditioning of PINNs on seismic source locations. This signifies a considerable advancement towards rapid seismic hazard detection and seismic analysis.

Fibre optic sensing, such as distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), has become a widespread technology for geophysical studies. To process the large-scale datasets produced by DAS, several machine learning methods have been proposed. However, without standardization of data and models, these methods lack comparability and interoperability. This introduces a gap between model developers and practitioners analyzing DAS data and inhibits adoption of deep learning for DAS. To address these limitations, here we present SeisBench DAS, an extension to the SeisBench library for machine learning in seismology. SeisBench DAS defines standard formats for DAS benchmark datasets, including standardised metadata and labels, and DAS models. It builds on the xdas framework for data ingestion and virtual array handling, and on PyTorch for reading and applying the machine learning models. Importantly, SeisBench provides an engine to efficiently apply deep learning models to diverse formats of DAS data, bridging the gap between model developers and practitioners. SeisBench DAS is designed as an open and extensible framework, allowing to easily incorporate future developments in deep learning for DAS.

In recent years, the number of events in earthquake catalogs has significantly increased due to the utilization of more effective deep learning based detectors and phase pickers but answering open ended questions such as what characterizes this sequence? remains constrained by rigid spatiotemporal windowing and subjective expert interpretation. We present the first systematic application of graph based retrieval augmented generation GraphRAG directly to raw, tabular catalog records across three independently featured catalogs, a reservoir adjacent swarm, the 2019 Ridgecrest tectonic sequence, and the 2021 Maduo Mw7.4 aftershock sequence. Without the need for manual data structuring, the pipeline builds structurally complete, queryable knowledge graphs for all three. Rigorous evaluation individually verified against catalog derived ground truth and a rule based reference graph exposes failure modes, and four seismology informed prompt fixes eliminate all targeted fabrications while sharply improving mechanism reasoning. A vector RAG baseline demonstrates the graph layers distinctive value, catalog wide summarization and temporal stage comparison. In addition, we have identified two main pitfalls that need attention. GraphRAG thus offers a practical, transferable, near zero cost query interface for earthquake catalogs, where careful prompting ensures the results are consistently accurate and trustworthy.

Identifying the critical state of mature seismic gaps is challenging, especially when anthropogenic stress perturbations, such as reservoir impoundment, superimpose on tectonic loading. Here, utilizing a high-resolution dense array catalog from the Qiaojia-Dongchuan seismic gap (hosting the second-largest hydropower station in the world), we reveal a distinct vertical decoupling mechanism. The shallow activities exhibit high b-values (1.0), indicative of fluid-driven reservoir-triggered seismicity. Conversely, deep seismicity (20 km) outlines a 'locked asperity' characterized by low b-values (less than 0.8) and high Coulomb stress accumulation rate. We further identify a complex dipping structure, suggesting compound fault kinematics. Additionally, the calculated stress accumulation suggests this seismic gap is in a critical state with elevated rupture potential. Our findings indicate that shallow induced seismicity can mask the silent accumulation of deep tectonic strain. This decoupling model provides a new framework for assessing seismic risks in reservoir-fault systems globally.

High-resolution velocity models are crucial for reservoir characterization and subsurface delineation. However, the band limited nature of our surface recorded data limits resolution. Utilizing well measurements to enhance the resolution of our subsurface models is an important objective. To this end, we present a diffusion-guided framework for structurally preconditioned velocity-model reconstruction from sparse well-log information. The proposed approach combines plane-wave PDE regularization, structurally preconditioned inversion, and measurement-guided diffusion posterior sampling within a unified formulation. Local structural slopes estimated through plane-wave destruction are used both to propagate well information along geological dip directions and to guide the diffusion sampling process through a joint velocity--slope generative prior. Numerical experiments on the Volve synthetic model and the Viking Graben field dataset demonstrate that the proposed framework improves structural continuity, lateral consistency, and geological realism compared with conventional structurally preconditioned inversion approaches while maintaining computationally practical inference through DDIM sampling.

Seismic wavefield simulation is fundamental to seismology, but conventional finite-difference (FD) methods remain limited by numerical dispersion and stability constraints, which often require dense spatial grids and small time steps and thereby severely limit the effectiveness of iterative inversion workflows. We introduce a conditional diffusion-based wavefield propagator that advances seismic wavefields recursively from one time step to the next. Instead of learning an unconditional data distribution of wavefield evolution, the model is conditioned by a short history of recent wavefield time steps (snapshots), the velocity model, and the wavefield time step index, allowing it to represent the conditional transition between adjacent physical states. By training the network to directly predict the clean next wavefield snapshot, this strong physical conditioning makes it possible to replace the iterative reverse diffusion process with a single network evaluation for each predicted snapshot. To improve stability over long recursive rollouts, we further introduce a causal time-weighted loss, in which adaptive weights, accumulated as exponential moving averages of per-snapshot training errors, emphasize training directions that are consistent with the forward propagation sequence and reduce the amplification of one-step prediction errors. Because the learned propagator is tied to the temporal spacing of the training snapshots rather than to the FD stability limit, it can advance the wavefield using a physical time step ten times larger than that required by the underlying solver. Experiments on the Overthrust, SEG/EAGE, and Marmousi models show that the proposed method accurately reproduces wavefield snapshots and shot gathers and achieves an end-to-end speedup of 2.17 x over a GPU-accelerated tenth-order staggered-grid FD implementation under matched hardware conditions.

We demonstrate the application of Flow Matching, a technique originating from generative Artificial Intelligence, to probabilistic inversion in geophysical settings, such as seismic Full-Waveform inversion. We adapt the well-established mathematical theory of Flow Matching from generative Artificial Intelligence to the context of probabilistic inversion. We evaluate the approach with two case studies: a simple 2D velocity model to illustrate the general features of the method, and the OpenFWI dataset to show its capabilities for probabilistic inversion of more complex seismic velocity models.

Accurate 3D seismic velocity modeling through seismic travel-time tomography using both active- and passive-source data provides critical underpinning models for seismicity monitoring and hazard assessment. Because travel-time tomography is an inherently ill-posed inverse problem, UQ of the estimated models using Bayesian methods is also important for reliable downstream interpretations and analyses. However, Bayesian inference for 3D tomography based on conventional grid-based representations faces the ``curse of dimensionality'' and severe computational bottlenecks. Consequently, rigorous Bayesian UQ for margin-wide 3D travel-time tomography has remained largely unexplored. In this study, we propose a meshless 3D Bayesian travel-time tomography method that combines PINNs with a neural representation of the velocity structure, enabling tractable and data-efficient Bayesian inference through function-space particle-based variational inference. To efficiently integrate passive-source data into the Bayesian estimation of the velocity structure, we conduct analytical marginalization treating uncertain source parameters as nuisance parameters, with passive-source relocation carried out in post-processing. We validated the capability of our approach for 3D problems through synthetic experiments. Furthermore, we applied the method to a real-world dataset from marine active-source surveys and natural earthquakes off the Kii Peninsula, Nankai Trough. Our probabilistic 3D ensemble successfully resolves key geological features and provides data-consistent uncertainty maps. The posterior mean hypocenters shifted mainly in the vertical direction by 10-15 km, consistent with a previous relocation result. Finally, the neural representation drastically reduces storage requirements for the entire ensemble velocity model, highlighting the scalability and data efficiency of the proposed framework.

Unsupervised 3D seismic horizon tracking faces a key limitation: signal-based propagators provide accurate trace-level alignment but often fail near faults, whereas texture-driven deep models are more robust to discontinuities, typically at the cost of labeled data requirements and reduced trace-level precision. We propose a self-supervised fusion of both paradigms in which signal-derived local horizon correspondences act as domain-specific priors to train a texture-based deep learning model. Specifically, we estimate reliable trace-to-trace flows from reflector slopes and use them to form positive pairs in a contrastive objective, while restricting training to high-confidence neighborhoods, optionally augmented with a fault mask. The objective is not to infer ambiguous correspondences close to discontinuities, but to preserve horizon identity across them. As a result, the network learns voxel-wise embeddings that preserve local signal continuity while enabling horizon propagation beyond discontinuities through similarity search. Experiments on the public F3 dataset and a faulted synthetic dataset achieve lower mean absolute error (MAE) than unsupervised baselines and competitive performance against a semi-supervised method using a single labeled slice.

Inaccurately labeled training data, or "label noise", poses a significant threat to the integrity of supervised machine learning models. This corruption directly degrades performance by teaching the model erroneous mappings between features and labels, which leads to poor generalization and reduced accuracy on properly labeled validation and test data. Current seismological applications mainly rely on large-scale training sets or data augmentation to reduce the label-noise impact, which can be labor-intensive and costly. Here, we introduce a Label Noise-Contrastive Robust Learning (LaNCoR) approach that can effectively handle noisy labels in seismic signal processing tasks, without requiring large-scale training datasets. In this approach, the input waveform feature and label representation distributions are aligned in the feature space to correct mislabeling and reduce its impact on the training process. We present LaNCoR's performance on the task of P-phase arrival-time picking of real microseismic data using two baseline models and training approaches. Our results indicate that LaNCoR can improve performance by up to 28.8% across performance metrics. This approach holds great promise for model training in seismology and geosciences.

Long-horizon autoregressive forecasting of oscillatory physical signals, such as seismograms, gravitational-wave strain, and similar wavefields is limited by error accumulation: as a causal model is fed its own outputs over hundreds of steps, small per-step errors compound into phase drift that pointwise metrics fail to detect. We ask when such rollout stays stable, using synthetic three-component seismograms as a physically structured testbed and the \textsc{SeismoGPT} autoregressive forecaster as the model under study. Through controlled, intra-architecture ablations evaluated on free-running rollout with paired significance tests, we isolate the contribution of each design choice. Multi-token prediction is the dominant stabilizer, accounting for almost the entire improvement over a single-token baseline ($+0.040$ median NCC); a horizon-embedding hybrid prediction head and a cross-horizon STFT-magnitude coherence loss each add a small but consistent further gain. Performance depends sharply on a context-ratio threshold near one, roughly the full P-S interval of observed signal, below which rollout generalization collapses. The dominant residual failure is a polarity inversion that a magnitude-based spectral loss cannot, by construction, penalize, identifying phase-aware objectives as the natural next step. We frame this as a controlled study of rollout stability on oscillatory wavefields, not a benchmark of forecasting architectures.

Forecasting seismic waveforms beyond observed data remains challenging due to the nonlinear, dispersive, and multi-scale nature of seismic wave propagation. In this work, we introduce \textsc{SeismoGPT}, a transformer-based autoregressive model designed to forecast three-component seismic waveforms directly in the time domain. Forecasting is formulated as a physically constrained continuation problem in which the model receives waveform context beginning at the P-wave arrival and extending a defined time beyond the S-wave arrival, after which future motion is generated recursively without access to ground-truth samples. Evaluation is performed on synthetic seismograms spanning source depths of 5--100,km, epicentral distances of 10--90$^\circ$, and magnitudes $3 \leq M_w \leq 7$. To disentangle the effects of context length and prediction horizon, we define three evaluation configurations using a distance-normalized context ratio and fixed prediction horizons of 120 and 240,s. Across all configurations, the model achieves a median normalized cross correlation of 0.93 or higher. Analysis of representative forecasts shows that successful predictions preserve both phase coherence and spectral energy distribution. Where failure cases arise, this is primarily due to gradual phase drift during autoregressive rollout rather than unphysical signal generation. These results demonstrate that transformer-based sequence models can learn stable dynamical continuation of seismic wavefields, highlighting the potential of foundation-model approaches for physics-driven time-series forecasting. There are potential applications of this methodology in seismic warning and hazard mitigation, particularly for next-generation gravitational-wave observatories, such as the Einstein Telescope.

Full waveform inversion (FWI) is the gold standard for subsurface imaging, with applications from carbon sequestration to energy and mineral exploration to earthquake hazard assessment. Machine learning approaches to FWI need field-scale, geologically diverse, and physically realistic training data, but existing resources such as Marmousi, SEAM, and OpenFWI fall short on spatial extent, temporal extent, geological diversity, and physical realism. We address these limitations with SubsurfaceGen, a GPU-accelerated generator for 3D velocity models and seismic data. Along with SubsurfaceGen, we release a paired dataset of 4,276 2D velocity slices, 5 s wavefields, and 8 s shot gathers drawn from 42 realistic, field-scale 3D velocity models, each spanning 10 km x 10 km laterally and 6.19 km deep at 10 m resolution. The dataset spans six geological settings -- four built with SubsurfaceGen and two drawn from prior sources -- relevant for carbon sequestration and hydrocarbon exploration. We use this dataset to evaluate neural operators on wavefield prediction and encoder-decoders on end-to-end velocity inversion, holding out one geological setting for out-of-distribution testing. These experiments surface failure modes at field-scale and demonstrate how SubsurfaceGen and the associated dataset can impact ML-based FWI.

The application of generalist multimodal models (GMMs) to specialized scientific domains remains limited due to the scarcity of comprehensive domain-specific datasets that integrate multiple data modalities beyond text and images. In seismology, understanding earthquake phenomena requires the synthesis of timeseries waveform data, geographical imagery, and contextual metadata, a multimodal integration absent in existing seismic datasets. We present MultiSeismo, a large scale structured multimodal seismic dataset, comprising over 16K seismic events spanning 13 years (2010 to 2023) across diverse geographical regions. Each event data integrates waveform recordings from global station networks, intensity maps, population exposure visualizations, and a comprehensive textual description within a standardized JSON format. We additionally develop MISCE, a multimodal instruction set on top of raw data to enable supervised training and evaluation of GMMs on seismic reasoning tasks ranging from basic information retrieval to complex cross modal analysis. We leverage MISCE to finetune an existing multimodal model (Unified IO 2) enhanced with a specialized timeseries encoder, which yields SeisModal, the first domain specific multimodal model for comprehensive seismic analysis. Evaluation of state of the art multimodal models on MultiSeismo reveals significant challenges, particularly with time-series data processing for general purpose models, while demonstrating SeisModal's superior performance on seismic multimodal reasoning tasks. These results prove that MultiSeismo provides a rigorous benchmark for future multimodal research in seismology and validate the success of our domain specific architectural adaptations.

Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from Central Asia (2010-2024), where a likelihood-ratio test with boundary correction strongly rejects the Poisson hypothesis (p < 10^{-179}). The main contribution of this work is the EarthquakeNet architecture, which provides an endogenous per-cell estimate of the overdispersion parameter alpha via a neural network (spatial embeddings + MLP), without explicit spatial covariance specification. In contrast to existing negative binomial regression approaches in seismological forecasting, which typically assume a single global alpha, the proposed per-cell formulation allows the model to identify spatial heterogeneity in seismic clustering and to construct probabilistic risk-aware alerts via quantiles of the predicted distribution. A walk-forward evaluation (2018-2023) over four systems shows an 8.6 percent reduction in mean pinball deviation (MPD) relative to a negative binomial GLM baseline. The strongest improvements are observed in the tail regime (Y >= 5), where the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) of the proposed model is 12.5 percent lower than that of the baseline, indicating improved calibration in extreme-event forecasting.

The advent of machine learning (ML) and computer vision has significantly accelerated seismic inversion workflows by reducing the computational cost of traditionally expensive iterative methods. However, the development and evaluation of ML methods remain limited by the scarcity of realistic velocity models, as most high-quality data are privately owned by oil and gas companies. To address this gap, we present OpenSeisML, a collection of real seismic datasets designed to support generative AI (Gen-AI) workflows for seismic inversion. The datasets are curated from publicly available surveys in the UK National Data Repository (NDR). When seismic volumes are in the time domain and wells are in depth, a time-to-depth conversion is required. We use checkshot data to establish the time-depth relationship and construct a velocity model through interpolation for accurate conversion of post-stack seismic data. Here, we present an automated data curation pipeline that enables seismic data preparation while ensuring reproducibility. The objective is to train a generative model that captures the statistical distribution of subsurface properties, enabling the synthesis of multiple statistically consistent realizations for uncertainty quantification which can act as a prior for seismic inversion.

Self-supervised learning (SSL) has emerged as a promising approach to seismic data denoising as it does not require clean reference data. In this work, the deployment of the Noisy-as-Clean (NaC) method was evaluated for real seismic data denoising under controlled conditions. Two independent seismic acquisitions, each comprising noisy and filtered data, were organized into four real datasets. The NaC SSL method was adapted to add real noise to the noisy input, controlled by a parameter. An experimental protocol with ten experiments was designed to compare different strategies for deploying the NaC SSL method with the supervised learning baseline, using identical network topology and hyperparameters. The models were evaluated in terms of denoising performance, computational cost, and generalization capability. The results show that the synthetic additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) is inadequate for the denoising of seismic data within the NaC method, and performance strongly depends on the compatibility between the injected and actual noise characteristics. Furthermore, both the characteristics of the seismic data and the noise level influence the performance of the model. Self-supervised fine-tuning on test data has improved SSL performance, whereas no such gain was observed for fine-tuning of supervised models. Finally, NaC has shown to be a simple, effective, and model-independent method that offers a feasible solution for the denoising of real seismic data.

Travel-time tomography forces a trade-off between mesh resolution and stability in which the regularizer choice dominates what can be recovered. We introduce MIMIR, a differentiable framework that represents the 2D velocity field as a Fourier-feature neural network, replacing the grid-based slowness vector with a continuous, infinitely differentiable function. Prior neural-field tomography has staircased smooth fields under total-variation (TV) priors or oscillated near interfaces under $L^2$ Laplacian smoothing. We adopt second-order total generalized variation (TGV$^2$) and parametrize its auxiliary vector field as a second neural network jointly optimized with the velocity field, eliminating the inner Chambolle-Pock primal-dual loop that classically dominates TGV computation. On three synthetic benchmarks (Gaussian, horizontally layered, curved-fault inspired by OpenFWI) using cross-well acquisition, 5% travel-time noise, and five seeds, MIMIR-TGV$^2$ ties a classical FMM-LSMR baseline with auto-tuned hyperparameters on the Gaussian ($p=0.134$, paired $t$-test) and significantly outperforms it on layered ($p<0.0001$, 44% RMSE reduction) and curved-fault ($p=0.0002$, 33% reduction). Replacing TGV$^2$ with TV degrades performance on Gaussian ($p=0.004$) and layered ($p=0.003$); curriculum-annealed TV improves Gaussian RMSE by only 5.4%, confirming that TV's staircase bias is intrinsic to the regularizer rather than a scheduling artifact. The results empirically validate the Bredies-Kunisch-Pock prediction that piecewise-affine priors are better suited to subsurface velocity recovery than piecewise-constant TV priors. We argue that the central design choice in physics-informed neural-field inversion is not the network architecture but the regularizer. The full pipeline reproduces in under one hour on consumer hardware.

Numerous studies have shown that the machine-learning picker PhaseNet produces accurate P and S picks on local earthquake signals, but its performance can degrade sharply on teleseismic signals. To address this limitation, we present a reproducible MsPASS workflow that (i) enables scalable data preparation and management for large seismic archives and (ii) supports standardized PhaseNet training and inference. We assembled a control dataset of 1.6 million waveforms linked to teleseismic P-wave picks made by analysts at the USArray Array Network Facility (ANF). The control dataset confirms that the PhaseNet model trained on regional signals performs poorly on these data. We then trained PhaseNet from scratch on the training split of the ANF control dataset and evaluated it on a non-overlapping held-out test split, increasing P-pick recall by 741.5% and yielding 683.9% more picks within a 0.1s residual window. We also evaluated PhaseNet across different model sizes on both CPUs and GPUs. Increasing the model size by about 120 times improved precision and recall by 15.6% and 23.2%, respectively. However, the scaled model reduced inference throughput by 87.2% on an NVIDIA A100 GPU and by 97.3% on a 128-core high-performance CPU node. These results indicate that scaling PhaseNet is more practical on GPUs than on CPUs, and that simply enlarging the model is not an efficient way to achieve large accuracy gains.

Rapid earthquake magnitude estimation is crucial for effective early warning systems that can save lives and reduce economic damage. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of magnitude classification using only the vertical component of the initial 7-second P-wave window from a single station. We compare six machine learning approaches that range from traditional models to state-of-the-art deep learning architectures. We also curated a novel dataset of 7,318 earthquake events in South Asia. The dataset was categorized into five Richter-scale classes: slight (3.0-3.9), light (4.0-4.9), moderate (5.0-5.9), strong (6.0-6.9) and severe (>= 7.0). Our experiments show that deep learning models substantially outperform traditional approaches. Our Transformer based architecture achieved 76.23% standard accuracy and 81.56% adaptive accuracy with 4.8 ms inference latency. The adaptive-accuracy metric is introduced for the inherent uncertainty in magnitude estimation of near class boundaries. These results indicate that the attention mechanisms in Transformers combined with adaptive classification effectively capture the temporal dynamics of seismic signals. The architectural advantage facilitates promising generalization to rare high-magnitude events, despite the inherent data scarcity characteristic of seismic catalogs. The adaptive accuracy provides a more realistic assessment of model performance, and the result suggests viability for real-time deployment.

The demand for high-resolution subsurface imaging and continuous Earth monitoring has driven rapid growth in active and passive seismic data from dense geophone deployments, distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) arrays, and large-scale 2D and 3D surveys. This expansion makes complex noise suppression increasingly challenging, especially when signal fidelity must be preserved. Conventional supervised deep learning methods are often task-specific, require large paired datasets, and can suffer from domain shift under new acquisition conditions. Foundation models offer a promising alternative, but pre-training seismic foundation models from scratch requires massive domain-specific data and substantial computation. We propose an efficient framework that repurposes general-purpose Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) for geophysical tasks through Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning. The architecture uses a pre-trained VFM, a DINOv3 encoder, adapted with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) to enable effective feature adaptation with few additional parameters. To improve robustness under unseen field conditions without ground truth, we introduce a kurtosis-guided unsupervised test-time adaptation module that updates only LoRA parameters during inference. This module self-calibrates the model to site-specific noise by identifying information-rich regions via kurtosis and performing self-training without labeled data. Experiments on public exploration seismic images and DAS vertical seismic profiling data from the Utah FORGE site show that the framework matches or outperforms domain-specific models. Tests on unseen cross-site data from a land survey in China and the Groß Schönebeck geothermal site in Germany further demonstrate strong generalization and effective signal-noise separation. These results highlight the potential of adapting pre-trained VFMs to data-intensive problems in exploration seismology.

Modern seismic networks resolve earthquake sequences in unprecedented detail, yet explaining how large earthquakes emerge from evolving fault systems remains difficult. We introduce TRACE, a seismology-guided artificial intelligence agent that plans and executes workflows while preserving auditable evidence chains from observations to physical interpretation. We evaluated TRACE through 104 benchmark tasks and two complementary earthquake sequences. For the well-studied 2019 Ridgecrest sequence, TRACE constructed a high-resolution catalog from continuous waveforms and retrospectively recovered delayed cascading activation between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 earthquakes without a prescribed target interpretation. In the less-understood 2025-2026 Sanriku sequence off northeastern Japan, TRACE developed a testable interpretation of progressive destabilization within a segmented megathrust. Its synthesis linked coupled seismic-aseismic activation around the MJ 6.9 sequence and subsequent persistent, spatially segmented shallow-interface activity to a megathrust patch that lay between regions of past large coseismic slip and later hosted the MJ 7.7 rupture. These results open a path from seismic observations to testable physical insight.

In this paper we build upon a previous study in which we demonstrated, using XGBoost and earthquake catalogue data from Japan and Chile, that a set of 60 seismic statistical features (SSFs) had much greater predictive value than a set of 428 generic time series features from the tsfresh package. We here extend this previous work in two key ways, focusing on data from Japan as a large dataset is necessary in order to allow for the training of a deep learning (autoencoder) model. First, we move from whole-region prediction (considering, for each candidate event, the likelihood of an event M $\geq$ 5.0 anywhere in the region in the next 15 days) to localised predictions in which both the region of feature computation and the region of prediction are restricted to a circle of radius 24 km around the candidate event, and we show that performance remains excellent, similar to our previous whole-region study for the same area. Second, we here couple this proven set of SSFs, based on one-dimensional (catalogue) data, with a novel feature based on magnitude-stratified two-dimensional seismic maps, obtained by training a VQ-VAE model to reproduce such maps as output and identifying a measure of its error in doing so with anomalies in magnitude distribution reflecting a localised build-up of crustal stress. We show that while localised prediction based only on a set of SSFs can be effective, with test AUC values as high as those obtained in the case of Japan in our previous whole-region study, the inclusion of the new natively-spatial VQ-VAE-derived feature, top-ranked by SHAP analysis, both improves prediction and points toward a new approach that might allow computationally time-demanding traditional seismic features to be entirely set aside.