Selective Prediction

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Overview

Selective prediction studies how models should decide whether to make a prediction, abstain, or escalate an uncertain case to a person or another system. Common approaches use confidence and uncertainty scores, ensembles or verifiers, and calibration methods such as conformal prediction to set risk–coverage trade-offs. Applications range from image classification and clinical triage to language-model question answering and agent actions, where benchmarks increasingly assess accepted-case errors, coverage, review costs, and subgroup outcomes. A central challenge is that useful confidence rankings do not by themselves guarantee safe decisions: calibration and risk guarantees can depend on data assumptions, shift across domains or groups, and sharply reduce coverage.

Latest papers

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292 papers58 papers in the last four weeks, up 38% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

  1. Entropy trajectory shape predicts LLM reasoning reliability: A diagnostic study of uncertainty dynamics in chain-of-thought

    Mar 19, 2026Xinghao ZhaoLLM Uncertainty EstimationLLM Reliability

    Huazhong University of Science and Technology

  2. RadAnnotate: Large Language Models for Efficient and Reliable Radiology Report Annotation

    Mar 16, 2026Saisha Pradeep Shetty, Roger Eric Goldman, Vladimir FilkovLLM-Assisted AnnotationHuman-in-the-Loop Annotation

    Department of Computer Science, University of California, Davis, CA, USA · Department of Radiology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA

  3. Severe Domain Shift in Skeleton-Based Action Recognition:A Study of Uncertainty Failure in Real-World Gym Environments

    Mar 16, 2026Aaditya Khanal, Junxiu ZhouSkeleton-Based Action RecognitionSelective Prediction

    School of Computing and Analytics, Northern Kentucky University, Highland Heights, KY 41099, USA

  4. Concisely Explaining the Doubt: Minimum-Size Abductive Explanations for Linear Models with a Reject Option

    Mar 14, 2026Gleilson Pedro Fernandes, Thiago Alves RochaAbductive ReasoningInterpretable ML

    Instituto Federal do Ceará (IFCE), Brazil

  5. When should we trust the annotation? Selective prediction for molecular structure retrieval from mass spectra

    Mar 11, 2026Mira Jürgens, Gaetan De Waele, Morteza Rakhshaninejad +1Selective PredictionMass Spectrometry

    Department of Data Analysis and Mathematical Modeling, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, Ghent, 9000, Belgium. · Department of Computer Science, University of Antwerp, Middelheimlaan 1, Antwerp, 2020, Belgium.

  6. Cross-Domain Uncertainty Quantification for Selective Prediction: A Comprehensive Bound Ablation with Transfer-Informed Betting

    Mar 9, 2026Abhinaba BasuSelective PredictionCross-Domain Transfer Learning

  7. Data-Driven Priors for Uncertainty-Aware Risk Prediction of Clinical Deterioration using Multimodal Data

    Mar 9, 2026L. Julián Lechuga López, Tim G. J. Rudner, Farah E. ShamoutBayesian Neural NetworksUncertainty Quantification

    Tandon School of Engineering, New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi · University of Toronto

  8. Deterministic Fuzzy Triage for Legal Compliance Classification and Evidence Retrieval

    Mar 8, 2026Rian AtriLegal NLPLegal IR

    Serval Systems

  9. To Predict or Not to Predict? Towards reliable uncertainty estimation in the presence of noise

    Mar 7, 2026Nouran Khallaf, Serge SharoffMultilingual Text ClassificationUncertainty Calibration

    Centre for Translation, Localisation and Interpreting Studies, School of Languages, Cultures and Societies, University of Leeds, UK

  10. No Certificate, No Categorical Speech Act: A Brouwerian Assertibility Constraint for Public Reason

    Mar 4, 2026Michael JülichAI AccountabilitySelective Prediction

    aihorizon R&D, Munich, Germany.

  11. An Empirical Analysis of Calibration and Selective Prediction in Multimodal Clinical Condition Classification

    Mar 3, 2026L. Julián Lechuga López, Farah E. Shamout, Tim G. J. RudnerSelective PredictionUncertainty Calibration

    New York University · New York University Abu Dhabi · University of Toronto

  12. A Study on Building Efficient Zero-Shot Relation Extraction Models

    Mar 1, 2026Hugo Thomas, Caio Corro, Guillaume Gravier +1Relation ExtractionSelective Prediction

    Univ Rennes, INSA Rennes, CNRS, Inria, IRISA – UMR 6074, F-35042 Rennes, France

  13. Experience-Guided Self-Adaptive Cascaded Agents for Breast Cancer Screening and Diagnosis with Reduced Biopsy Referrals

    Feb 27, 2026Pramit Saha, Mohammad Alsharid, Joshua Strong +1Clinical Decision SupportSelf-Improving Agents

    Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford · Department of Computer Science, Khalifa University

  14. Conformal Tradeoffs: Operational Profiles Beyond Coverage

    Feb 20, 2026Petrus H. ZwartConformal PredictionSelective Prediction

    Center for Advanced Mathematics in Energy Research Applications, Berkeley Synchrotron Infrared Structural Biology Program, & Molecular Biophysics and Integrated Bioimaging Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA

  15. Distribution-Free Sequential Prediction with Abstentions

    Feb 20, 2026Jialin Yu, Moïse BlanchardStatistical Learning TheorySelective Prediction

    Georgia Institute of Technology

  16. When Agents Disagree With Themselves: Behavioral Consistency as an Uncertainty Signal for LLM Agents

    Feb 12, 2026Aman MehtaAI Agent ReliabilitySelective Prediction

    Snowflake AI Research

  17. Robust Residual Correction via Selective Deployment for Time Series Forecasting

    Dec 27, 2025Jianxiang Xie, Yuncheng Hua, Mingyue Cheng +2Robust Time Series ForecastingResidual Learning

    School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia · State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Intelligence, School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)

  18. MedBayes-Lite: A Clinical Uncertainty Governance Layer for Risk-Aware Medical Decision Support

    Nov 20, 2025Elias Hossain, Md Mehedi Hasan Nipu, Maleeha Sheikh +5Selective PredictionHealthcare

    College of Engineering and Computer Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA · Department of Computer Science and Engineering, North South University, Dhaka 1229, Bangladesh · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Purdue University Fort Wayne, Fort Wayne, IN 46805, USA +4

  19. Unequal Uncertainty: Rethinking Algorithmic Interventions for Mitigating Discrimination from AI

    Aug 11, 2025Holli Sargeant, Mackenzie Jorgensen, Arina Shah +3Selective PredictionAlgorithmic Fairness

    University of Cambridge, United Kingdom · Northumbria University, Newcastle, United Kingdom · George Washington University, Washington D.C., United States +2

  20. On the Reliability and Stability of Selective Methods in Malware Classification Tasks

    May 28, 2025Alexander Herzog, Aliai Eusebi, Lorenzo CavallaroMalware ClassificationSelective Prediction

    University College London and core64 London, United Kingdom · University College London London, United Kingdom

  21. Towards Functional Correctness of Code Models with Selective Generation

    May 19, 2025Jaewoo Jeong, Taesoo Kim, Sangdon ParkCode GenerationCode Generation Evaluation

    CSE, POSTECH · SCS&SCP GaTech · Microsoft +1

  22. Verify when Uncertain: Beyond Self-Consistency in Black Box Hallucination Detection

    Feb 20, 2025Yihao Xue, Kristjan Greenewald, Youssef Mroueh +1Kernel Mean EmbeddingsSelective Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University of California, Los Angeles · MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab · IBM Research