Selective Prediction

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32 papers in the last four weeks, up 88% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

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Bayesian Selective Latent Inference for Wastewater-First Influenza Monitoring
Jun 8, 2026Yixuan Zhang, Yang Song, Hao Wang +2Epidemic Forecasting Selective Prediction
Section of Health Data Science and AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · Section of Health Data Science & AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA +1
A Joint Finite-Sample Certificate for Adaptive Selective Conformal Risk Control
Jun 7, 2026Xiaoli Yu, Jiamiao LiuSelective Prediction Conformal Risk Control
School of Cyber Security and Information Law Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications Chongqing 400065, China · Department of Information, Xinqiao Hospital Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University) Chongqing 400037, China
High-Precision APT Malware Attribution with Out-of-Scope Resilience
Jun 2, 2026Peter Williams, Adam Sobey, Erisa KarafiliSelective Prediction Malware Classification
University of Southampton, Southampton, UK · The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
Reliable Multilingual Orthopedic Decision Support from Clinical Narratives: Language-Aware Adaptation and Verification-Guided Deferral
May 29, 2026Danish Ali, Li Xiaojian, Sundas Iqbal +1Multilingual Language Models Selective Prediction
School of Computer Science, Wuhan University, China · School of Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), China · Department of Orthopedic, Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Pakistan
AbstainGNN: Teaching Graph Neural Networks to Abstain for Graph Classification
May 29, 2026Xixun Lin, Zhiheng Zhou, Zhengyin Zhang +9Graph Neural Networks Selective Prediction
Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Shandong University · China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing +6
Diversity Matters: Revisiting Test-Time Compute in Vision-Language Models
May 29, 2026Yijie Tong, Yifan Hou, Shaobo Cui +2VLM Evaluation Vision-Language Models
ETH Zürich · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · EPFL
BOKBO (Best of K Bad Options): Calibrated Abstention for VLA Policies
May 28, 2026Anya Singh, Cabrel Happi, Jai Relan +2Selective Prediction Conformal Prediction
Relling Systems
Improving Selective Classification with Pairwise Queries for Binary Classification
May 28, 2026Harsh Vardhan, Sunav Choudhary, Natwar Modani +1Pairwise Comparison Selective Prediction
CSE, UCSD, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92092, CA, USA. · Adobe Research, 345 Park Ave, San Jose, 95110, CA, USA. · Adobe Research, Marathahalli, Bengaluru, 560087, Karnataka, India. +1
CFCamo: A Counterfactual Detect-or-Abstain Framework for Camouflaged Object Detection
May 28, 2026Suhang Li, Osamu Yoshie, Yuya IeiriSelective Prediction Object Hallucination in VLMs
The authors are with the Graduate School of Information, Production and Systems, Waseda University, Fukuoka, Japan.
Wait! There's a Way Out: A Decision Mechanism for Forecasting Conversational Derailment
May 28, 2026Laerdon Kim, Vivian Nguyen, Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-MizilSelective Prediction
Cornell University
Risk-Controlled Lean-as-Judge for Natural-Language Mathematical Reasoning
May 27, 2026Pauline Bourigault, Xiaotong Ji, Matthieu Zimmer +2LLM Answer Verification Selective Prediction
Imperial College London · Huawei Noah’s Ark Lab · UCL Centre for AI
Auditable Decision Models with Learned Abstention and Real-Time Steering
May 26, 2026Sankaranarayanan Palamadai ChandrasekaranAI-Assisted Decision Making AI Accountability
Simple Machine Mind
DeepSciVerify: Verifying Scientific Claim--Citation Alignment via LLM-Driven Evidence Escalation
May 26, 2026Shaghayegh Sadeghi, Khashayar Khajavi, Rise Adhikari +1Selective Prediction Citation Verification
FirstPrinciples · School of Computing Science, Simon Fraser University
Trust but Verify: Prover-Verifier Deliberation for Selective LLM Prediction
May 24, 2026João Sedoc, Baotong Zhang, Dean FosterLLM Answer Verification Selective Prediction
New York University
Ternary Decision Trees with Locally-Adaptive Uncertainty Zones
May 21, 2026William SmitsUncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Avathon, Austin, TX, USA
Reliable Automated Triage in Spanish Clinical Notes: A Hybrid Framework for Risk-Aware HIV Suspicion Identification
May 20, 2026Rodrigo Morales-Sánchez, Soto Montalvo, Raquel MartínezSelective Prediction Healthcare
Dept. Lenguajes y Sistemas Informáticos, ETSI Informática, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) · Dept. Informática y Estadística, ETSI Informática, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos (URJC)
SAVER: Selective As-Needed Vision Evidence for Multimodal Information Extraction
May 20, 2026Miaobo Hu, Shuhao Hu, Bokun Wang +5Relation Extraction Named Entity Recognition
Institute of Information Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100092, China · School of Cyber Security, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
BalanceRAG: Joint Risk Calibration for Cascaded Retrieval-Augmented Generation
May 19, 2026Zijun Jia, Yuanchang Ye, Sen Jia +6Retrieval-Augmented Generation Selective Prediction
Beihang University · Zhejiang University of Finance & Economics · Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology +1
Conformal Selective Acting: Anytime-Valid Risk Control for RLVR-Trained LLMs
May 18, 2026Hamed Khosravi, Xiaoming HuoSelective Prediction Anytime-Valid Inference
Georgia Institute of Technology
Knowing When Not to Predict: Self Supervised Learning and Abstention for Safer DR Screening
May 18, 2026Muskaan Chopra, Lorenz Sparrenberg, Jan H. Terheyden +1Selective Prediction Self-Supervised Pre-Training
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Bonn, Germany · Lamarr Institute for Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, Germany · University Hospital Bonn - Department of Ophthalmology, Germany +1
Confidence-Gated Robot Autonomy: When Does Uncertainty Actually Help?
May 18, 2026Johannes A. Gaus, Jhon P. F. Charaja, Daniel HaeufleUncertainty Quantification Selective Prediction
Hertie Institute for Clinical Brain Research & Center for Integrative Neuroscience, University of Tübingen, Germany
Task Abstention for Large Language Models in Code Generation
May 16, 2026Yanke Zhou, Yuhao Tan, Senrong Xu +4Selective Prediction LLM Hallucination Mitigation
State Key Laboratory of Novel Software Technology Nanjing University · School of Computing and Mathematical Sciences University of London
When Evidence Conflicts: Uncertainty and Order Effects in Retrieval-Augmented Biomedical Question Answering
May 13, 2026Yikun Han, Mengfei Lan, Halil KilicogluSelective Prediction Healthcare
University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
Pause and Reflect: Conformal Aggregation for Chain-of-Thought Reasoning
May 13, 2026Yu Gu, Zijun Yu, Vahid Partovi Nia +1Selective Prediction Self-Consistency Decoding
Department of Mathematics and Statistics McGill University Montréal, QC, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Industrial Engineering Polytechnique de Montréal Montréal, QC, Canada
Fair and Calibrated Toxicity Detection with Robust Training and Abstention
May 13, 2026Mokshit SuranaProbability Calibration Selective Prediction
University of Illinois Chicago
Low-Cost Labels, Reliable Choices: Rollout-Calibrated Hyper-Heuristics for Job Shop Scheduling
May 11, 2026Junhao Wei, Yanxiao Li, Yifu Zhao +8Selective Prediction Metaheuristic Optimization
Faculty of Applied Sciences, Macao Polytechnic University, Macao, 999078, China · College of Animal Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, Guangzhou, 510225, China · 4Macao Polytechnic University, Macao, 999078, China
Post-hoc Selective Classification for Reliable Synthetic Image Detection
May 9, 2026Kaixiang Zheng, Jacob H. SeidmanUncertainty Quantification Distribution Shift
University of Waterloo · Reality Defender
Flexible Routing via Uncertainty Decomposition
May 8, 2026Charlotte Peale, Siddartha Devic, Parikshit Gopalan +2Uncertainty Quantification Adaptive Model Routing
1Stanford University · University of Southern California · 3Apple
SGC-RML: A reliable and interpretable longitudinal assessment for PD in real-world DNS
May 8, 2026Wenbin Wei, Ruixiang Gao, Suyuan Yao +3Selective Prediction Unified Multimodal Models
∗ Equal contribution. · † Corresponding author.
A Regime Theory of Controller Class Selection for LLM Action Decisions
May 7, 2026Zhaoyang Jiang, Zhizhong Fu, Yunsoo Kim +4Selective Prediction Language Model-Based Control
University of Glasgow · UESTC, Chengdu, China · University College London

Jun 8, 2026, cs.AIJ/K move · Enter open · S save

Bayesian Selective Latent Inference for Wastewater-First Influenza Monitoring

Yixuan Zhang, Yang Song, Hao Wang, Samir Bhatt+1

Section of Health Data Science and AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · Section of Health Data Science & AI, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark · Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA+1

Epidemic Forecasting Selective Prediction Bayesian Inference Cost-Aware Inference Bayesian Experimental Design

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Wastewater influenza surveillance can reveal community circulation before clinical reporting, but wastewater alone is not a fully identifiable proxy for human burden. Existing wastewater models assume a fixed evidence set, while generic evidence-acquisition methods treat official surveillance streams as interchangeable costly features. We cast wastewater-first influenza monitoring as a selective decision problem: starting from mandatory wastewater evidence, the system must decide whether wastewater is sufficient, which delayed official stream to query next, and when abstention is the only scientifically defensible action under source ambiguity. We propose Bayesian Selective Latent Inference (BSLI), a principled Bayesian method that maintains a posterior over latent burden and identifiability, certifies answerability through explicit scientific gates, and optimizes query-stop decisions with an exact cost-calibrated Bellman policy. We prove the key variational, answerability, Bellman-optimality, and one-dimensional cost-calibration properties. On a fixed public-data benchmark with 5,933 forecasting episodes and 3,102 source-ambiguity episodes, BSLI improves the matched-budget cost-performance frontier while preserving conservative abstention under source ambiguity.

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