Spatiotemporal Forecasting

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Spatiotemporal forecasting studies how patterns evolve across both space and time, supporting decisions such as routing traffic, preparing for floods, and tracking disease outbreaks. Common approaches include graph neural networks for connected locations, convolutional and Transformer models for gridded fields, and state-space or neural-operator methods for long sequences and physical dynamics. Researchers also use physics-informed constraints, multimodal data, and probabilistic or generative models to represent mechanisms and forecast uncertainty. A central challenge is making forecasts stable and calibrated over long horizons while generalizing to sparse observations, new regions, and changing conditions; realistic benchmarks often reveal weaknesses hidden by standard test splits.

Latest papers

429 papers59 papers in the last four weeks, up 48% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

Apr 17, 2026

Modern Structure-Aware Simplicial Spatiotemporal Neural Network

Spatiotemporal modeling has evolved beyond simple time series analysis to become fundamental in structural time series analysis. While current research extensively employs graph neural networks (GNNs) for spatial feature extraction with notable success, these networks are limited to capturing only pairwise relationships, despite real-world networks containing richer topological relationships. Additionally, GNN-based models face computational challenges that scale with graph complexity, limiting their applicability to large networks. To address these limitations, we present Modern Structure-Aware Simplicial SpatioTemporal neural network (ModernSASST), the first approach to leverage simplicial complex structures for spatiotemporal modeling. Our method employs spatiotemporal random walks on high-dimensional simplicial complexes and integrates parallelizable Temporal Convolutional Networks to capture high-order topological structures while maintaining computational efficiency. Our source code is publicly available on GitHub\footnote{Code is available at: https://github.com/ComplexNetTSP/ST_RUM.

Zhaobo Hu, Vincent Gauthier, Mehdi Naima

SAMOVAR, T´el´ecom SudParis · Institut Polytechnique de Paris · CNRS – LIP6

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 15, 2026

M3R: Localized Rainfall Nowcasting with Meteorology-Informed MultiModal Attention

Accurate and timely rainfall nowcasting is crucial for disaster mitigation and water resource management. Despite recent advances in deep learning, precipitation prediction remains challenging due to limitations in effectively leveraging diverse multimedia data sources. We introduce M3R, a Meteorology-informed MultiModal attention-based architecture for direct Rainfall prediction that synergistically combines visual NEXRAD radar imagery with numerical Personal Weather Station (PWS) measurements, using a comprehensive pipeline for temporal alignment of heterogeneous meteorological data. With specialized multimodal attention mechanisms, M3R novelly leverages weather station time series as queries to selectively attend to spatial radar features, enabling focused extraction of precipitation signatures. Experimental results for three spatial areas of 100 km * 100 km centered at NEXRAD radar stations demonstrate that M3R outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial improvements in accuracy, efficiency, and precipitation detection capabilities. Our work establishes new benchmarks for multimedia-based precipitation nowcasting and provides practical tools for operational weather prediction systems. The source code is available at https://github.com/Sanjeev97/M3Rain

Sanjeev Panta, Rhett M Morvant, Xu Yuan +2

University of Louisiana at Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA · University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA

Precipitation Nowcasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multimodal Fusion

Apr 15, 2026

FAST: A Synergistic Framework of Attention and State-space Models for Spatiotemporal Traffic Prediction

Traffic forecasting requires modeling complex temporal dynamics and long-range spatial dependencies over large sensor networks. Existing methods typically face a trade-off between expressiveness and efficiency: Transformer-based models capture global dependencies well but suffer from quadratic complexity, while recent selective state-space models are computationally efficient yet less effective at modeling spatial interactions in graph-structured traffic data. We propose FAST, a unified framework that combines attention and state-space modeling for scalable spatiotemporal traffic forecasting. FAST adopts a Temporal-Spatial-Temporal architecture, where temporal attention modules capture both short- and long-term temporal patterns, and a Mamba-based spatial module models long-range inter-sensor dependencies with linear complexity. To better represent heterogeneous traffic contexts, FAST further introduces a learnable multi-source spatiotemporal embedding that integrates historical traffic flow, temporal context, and node-level information, together with a multi-level skip prediction mechanism for hierarchical feature fusion. Experiments on PeMS04, PeMS07, and PeMS08 show that FAST consistently outperforms strong baselines from Transformer-, GNN-, attention-, and Mamba-based families. In particular, FAST achieves the best MAE and RMSE on all three benchmarks, with up to 4.3% lower RMSE and 2.8% lower MAE than the strongest baseline, demonstrating a favorable balance between accuracy, scalability, and generalization.

Xinjin Li, Jinghan Cao, Mengyue Wang +5

Columbia University New York, NY, USA · San Francisco State University San Francisco, CA, USA · University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA, USA +5

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Traffic Forecasting

Apr 13, 2026

Dynamic Sheaf Diffusion Networks with Adaptive Local Structure for Heterogeneous Spatio-Temporal Graph Learning

Spatio-temporal processes often exhibit highly heterogeneous and non-intuitive responses to localized disruptions, limiting the effectiveness of conventional message passing approaches in modeling local heterogeneity. We reformulate spatio-temporal forecasting as the problem of learning information flow over locally structured spaces, rather than propagating globally aligned node representations. To this end, we introduce a spatio-temporal sheaf diffusion graph neural network (ST-Sheaf GNN) that embeds graph topology into sheaf-based vector spaces connected by learned linear restriction maps. Unlike prior approaches relying on static or globally shared transformations, our model learns dynamic restriction maps that evolve over time and adapt to local spatio-temporal patterns, enabling more expressive interactions. The proposed framework both theoretically guarantees and empirically demonstrates evidence that the proposed diffusion mechanism mitigates oversmoothing, preserving discriminative node representations even with increasing diffusion layer depth. Experiments on diverse real-world spatio-temporal forecasting benchmarks across multiple domains demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, highlighting the effectiveness of sheaf topological representations as a principled foundation for spatio-temporal graph learning. The code is available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/ST-SheafGNN-6523/.

Abeer Mostafa, Raneen Younis, Zahra Ahmadi

Peter L. Reichertz Institute for Medical Informatics, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany · Lower Saxony Center for Artificial Intelligence and Causal Methods in Medicine (CAIMed), Hannover, Germany

Over-Smoothing in GNNs Graph Neural Networks Spatiotemporal GNNs Spatiotemporal Forecasting Sheaf Neural Networks

Apr 13, 2026

From Time Series to State: Situation-Aware Modeling for Air Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate air traffic prediction in the terminal airspace (TA) is pivotal for proactive air traffic management (ATM). However, existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on time series-based forecasting paradigms, which inherently overlook critical aircraft state information, such as real-time kinematics and proximity to airspace boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose AeroSense, a direct state-to-flow modeling framework for air traffic prediction. Unlike classical time series-based methods that first aggregate aircraft trajectories into macroscopic flow sequences before modeling, AeroSense explicitly represents the real-time airspace situation as a dynamic set of aircraft states, enabling the direct processing of a variable number of aircraft instead of time series as inputs. Specifically, we introduce a situation-aware state representation that enables AeroSense to sense the instantaneous terminal airspace situation directly from microscopic aircraft states. Furthermore, we design a model architecture that incorporates masked self-attention to capture inter-aircraft interactions, together with two decoupled prediction heads to model heterogeneous flow dynamics across two key functional areas of the TA. Extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world airport dataset demonstrate that AeroSense consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating that direct modeling of microscopic aircraft states yields substantially higher predictive fidelity than time series-based baselines. Moreover, the proposed framework exhibits superior robustness during peak traffic periods, achieves Pareto-optimal performance under dayparting multi-object evaluation, and provides meaningful interpretability through attention-based visualizations.

Anqi Liu, Jiangtao Zhao, Guiyuan Jiang +3

Ocean University of China

Air Traffic Management Traffic Flow Estimation Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Apr 10, 2026

PDE-regularized Dynamics-informed Diffusion with Uncertainty-aware Filtering for Long-Horizon Dynamics

Long-horizon spatiotemporal prediction remains a challenging problem due to cumulative errors, noise amplification, and the lack of physical consistency in existing models. While diffusion models provide a probabilistic framework for modeling uncertainty, conventional approaches often rely on mean squared error objectives and fail to capture the underlying dynamics governed by physical laws. In this work, we propose PDYffusion, a dynamics-informed diffusion framework that integrates PDE-based regularization and uncertainty-aware forecasting for stable long-term prediction. The proposed method consists of two key components: a PDE-regularized interpolator and a UKF-based forecaster. The interpolator incorporates a differential operator to enforce physically consistent intermediate states, while the forecaster leverages the Unscented Kalman Filter to explicitly model uncertainty and mitigate error accumulation during iterative prediction. We provide theoretical analyses showing that the proposed interpolator satisfies PDE-constrained smoothness properties, and that the forecaster converges under the proposed loss formulation. Extensive experiments on multiple dynamical datasets demonstrate that PDYffusion achieves superior performance in terms of CRPS and MSE, while maintaining stable uncertainty behavior measured by SSR. We further analyze the inherent trade-off between prediction accuracy and uncertainty, showing that our method provides a balanced and robust solution for long-horizon forecasting.

Min Young Baeg, Yoon-Yeong Kim

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Long-Term Time Series Forecasting Physics-Informed Diffusion Models Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

Apr 7, 2026

Anticipating tipping in spatiotemporal systems with machine learning

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of parameter-adaptable reservoir computing has been applied to predict tipping in systems described by low-dimensional stochastic differential equations. However, anticipating tipping in complex spatiotemporal dynamical systems remains a significant open problem. The ability to forecast not only the occurrence but also the precise timing of such tipping events is crucial for providing the actionable lead time necessary for timely mitigation. By utilizing the mathematical approach of non-negative matrix factorization to generate dimensionally reduced spatiotemporal data as input, we exploit parameter-adaptable reservoir computing to accurately anticipate tipping. We demonstrate that the tipping time can be identified within a narrow prediction window across a variety of spatiotemporal dynamical systems, as well as in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) climate projections. Furthermore, we show that this reservoir-computing framework, utilizing reduced input data, is robust against common forecasting challenges and significantly alleviates the computational overhead associated with processing full spatiotemporal data.

Smita Deb, Zheng-Meng Zhai, Mulugeta Haile +1

School of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA · DEVCOM Army Research Office, 6340 Rodman Road, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD 21005-5069, USA · Department of Physics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Reservoir Computing

Apr 6, 2026

EAGLE: Edge-Aware Graph Learning for Proactive Delivery Delay Prediction in Smart Logistics Networks

Modern logistics networks generate rich operational data streams at every warehouse node and transportation lane -- from order timestamps and routing records to shipping manifests -- yet predicting delivery delays remains predominantly reactive. Existing predictive approaches typically treat this problem either as a tabular classification task, ignoring network topology, or as a time-series anomaly detection task, overlooking the spatial dependencies of the supply chain graph. To bridge this gap, we propose a hybrid deep learning framework for proactive supply chain risk management. The proposed method jointly models temporal order-flow dynamics via a lightweight Transformer patch encoder and inter-hub relational dependencies through an Edge-Aware Graph Attention Network (E-GAT), optimized via a multi-task learning objective. Evaluated on the real-world DataCo Smart Supply Chain dataset, our framework achieves consistent improvements over baseline methods, yielding an F1-score of 0.8762 and an AUC-ROC of 0.9773. Across four independent random seeds, the framework exhibits a cross-seed F1 standard deviation of only 0.0089 -- a 3.8 times improvement over the best ablated variant -- achieving the strongest balance of predictive accuracy and training stability among all evaluated models.

Zhiming Xue, Menghao Huo, Yujue Wang

College of Engineering, Northeastern University Boston, USA · School of Engineering, Santa Clara University Santa Clara, USA · Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, University of New Mexico Albuquerque, USA

Supply Chain Management Spatiotemporal Forecasting Graph Neural Networks

Apr 6, 2026

Towards Scaling Law Analysis For Spatiotemporal Weather Data

Compute-optimal scaling laws are relatively well studied for NLP and CV, where objectives are typically single-step and targets are comparatively homogeneous. Weather forecasting is harder to characterize in the same framework: autoregressive rollouts compound errors over long horizons, outputs couple many physical channels with disparate scales and predictability, and globally pooled test metrics can disagree sharply with per-channel, late-lead behavior implied by short-horizon training. We extend neural scaling analysis for autoregressive weather forecasting from single-step training loss to long rollouts and per-channel metrics. We quantify (1) how prediction error is distributed across channels and how its growth rate evolves with forecast horizon, (2) if power law scaling holds for test error, relative to rollout length when error is pooled globally, and (3) how that fit varies jointly with horizon and channel for parameter, data, and compute-based scaling axes. We find strong cross-channel and cross-horizon heterogeneity: pooled scaling can look favorable while many channels degrade at late leads. We discuss implications for weighted objectives, horizon-aware curricula, and resource allocation across outputs.

Alexander Kiefer, Prasanna Balaprakash, Xiao Wang

Bredesen Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee · Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Weather Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Neural Scaling Laws Autoregressive Modeling

Apr 5, 2026

El Nino Prediction Based on Weather Forecast and Geographical Time-series Data

This paper proposes a novel framework for enhancing the prediction accuracy and lead time of El Niño events, crucial for mitigating their global climatic, economic, and societal impacts. Traditional prediction models often rely on oceanic and atmospheric indices, which may lack the granularity or dynamic interplay captured by comprehensive meteorological and geographical datasets. Our framework integrates real-time global weather forecast data with anomalies, subsurface ocean heat content, and atmospheric pressure across various temporal and spatial resolutions. Leveraging a hybrid deep learning architecture that combines a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for spatial feature extraction and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for temporal dependency modeling, the framework aims to identify complex precursors and evolving patterns of El Niño events.

Viet Trinh, Ha-Vy Luu, Quoc-Khiem Nguyen-Pham +3

University of Economics and Law, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam · Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam

Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Apr 5, 2026

Solar-VLM: Multimodal Vision-Language Models for Augmented Solar Power Forecasting

Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting plays a critical role in power system dispatch and market participation. Because PV generation is highly sensitive to weather conditions and cloud motion, accurate forecasting requires effective modeling of complex spatiotemporal dependencies across multiple information sources. Although recent studies have advanced AI-based forecasting methods, most fail to fuse temporal observations, satellite imagery, and textual weather information in a unified framework. This paper proposes Solar-VLM, a large-language-model-driven framework for multimodal PV power forecasting. First, modality-specific encoders are developed to extract complementary features from heterogeneous inputs. The time-series encoder adopts a patch-based design to capture temporal patterns from multivariate observations at each site. The visual encoder, built upon a Qwen-based vision backbone, extracts cloud-cover information from satellite images. The text encoder distills historical weather characteristics from textual descriptions. Second, to capture spatial dependencies across geographically distributed PV stations, a cross-site feature fusion mechanism is introduced. Specifically, a Graph Learner models inter-station correlations through a graph attention network constructed over a K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) graph, while a cross-site attention module further facilitates adaptive information exchange among sites. Finally, experiments conducted on data from eight PV stations in a northern province of China demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Our proposed model is publicly available at https://github.com/rhp413/Solar-VLM.

Hang Fan, Haoran Pei, Runze Liang +3

School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, 102206, Beijing, China · School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, 102206, Beijing, China · Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084, Beijing, China +1

Solar Power Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multivariate Time Series Forecasting Multimodal Fusion

Apr 1, 2026

LAtent Phase Inference from Short time sequences using SHallow REcurrent Decoders (LAPIS-SHRED)

Reconstructing full spatio-temporal dynamics from sparse observations in both space and time remains a central challenge in complex systems, as measurements can be spatially incomplete and can be also limited to narrow temporal windows. Yet approximating the complete spatio-temporal trajectory is essential for mechanistic insight and understanding, model calibration, and operational decision-making. We introduce LAPIS-SHRED (LAtent Phase Inference from Short time sequence using SHallow REcurrent Decoders), a modular architecture that reconstructs and/or forecasts complete spatiotemporal dynamics from sparse sensor observations confined to short temporal windows. LAPIS-SHRED operates through a three-stage pipeline: (i) a SHRED model is pre-trained entirely on simulation data to map sensor time-histories into a structured latent space, (ii) a temporal sequence model, trained on simulation-derived latent trajectories, learns to propagate latent states forward or backward in time to span unobserved temporal regions from short observational time windows, and (iii) at deployment, only a short observation window of hyper-sparse sensor measurements from the true system is provided, from which the frozen SHRED model and the temporal model jointly reconstruct or forecast the complete spatiotemporal trajectory. The framework supports bidirectional inference, inherits data assimilation and multiscale reconstruction capabilities from its modular structure, and accommodates extreme observational constraints including single-frame terminal inputs. We evaluate LAPIS-SHRED on six experiments spanning complex spatio-temporal physics: turbulent flows, multiscale propulsion physics, volatile combustion transients, and satellite-derived environmental fields, highlighting a lightweight, modular architecture suited for operational settings where observation is constrained by physical or logistical limitations.

Yuxuan Bao, Xingyue Zhang, J. Nathan Kutz

Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington. · School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington. · Autodesk Research, London, UK.

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Latent Dynamics Modeling Recurrent Neural Networks

Apr 1, 2026

The Recipe Matters More Than the Kitchen:Mathematical Foundations of the AI Weather Prediction Pipeline

AI weather prediction has advanced rapidly, yet no unified mathematical framework explains what determines forecast skill. Existing theory addresses specific architectural choices rather than the learning pipeline as a whole, while operational evidence from 2023-2026 demonstrates that training methodology, loss function design, and data diversity matter at least as much as architecture selection. This paper makes two interleaved contributions. Theoretically, we construct a framework rooted in approximation theory on the sphere, dynamical systems theory, information theory, and statistical learning theory that treats the complete learning pipeline (architecture, loss function, training strategy, data distribution) rather than architecture alone. We establish a Learning Pipeline Error Decomposition showing that estimation error (loss- and data-dependent) dominates approximation error (architecture-dependent) at current scales. We develop a Loss Function Spectral Theory formalizing MSE-induced spectral blurring in spherical harmonic coordinates, and derive Out-of-Distribution Extrapolation Bounds proving that data-driven models systematically underestimate record-breaking extremes with bias growing linearly in record exceedance. Empirically, we validate these predictions via inference across ten architecturally diverse AI weather models using NVIDIA Earth2Studio with ERA5 initial conditions, evaluating six metrics across 30 initialization dates spanning all seasons. Results confirm universal spectral energy loss at high wavenumbers for MSE-trained models, rising Error Consensus Ratios showing that the majority of forecast error is shared across architectures, and linear negative bias during extreme events. A Holistic Model Assessment Score provides unified multi-dimensional evaluation, and a prescriptive framework enables mathematical evaluation of proposed pipelines before training.

Piyush Garg, Diana R. Gergel, Andrew E. Shao +1

Commercial AI Lab, RWE Trading Americas Inc., Bellevue, WA, USA · AI Research Lab, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Victoria, BC, Canada

Weather Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting OOD Generalization

Apr 1, 2026

NeuroDDAF: Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields with Evidential Fusion for Air Quality Forecasting

Accurate air quality forecasting is crucial for protecting public health and guiding environmental policy, yet it remains challenging due to nonlinear spatiotemporal dynamics, wind-driven transport, and distribution shifts across regions. Physics-based models are interpretable but computationally expensive and often rely on restrictive assumptions, whereas purely data-driven models can be accurate but may lack robustness and calibrated uncertainty. To address these limitations, we propose Neural Dynamic Diffusion-Advection Fields (NeuroDDAF), a physics-informed forecasting framework that unifies neural representation learning with open-system transport modeling. NeuroDDAF integrates (i) a GRU-Graph Attention encoder to capture temporal dynamics and wind-aware spatial interactions, (ii) a Fourier-domain diffusion-advection module with learnable residuals, (iii) a wind-modulated latent Neural ODE to model continuous-time evolution under time-varying connectivity, and (iv) an evidential fusion mechanism that adaptively combines physics-guided and neural forecasts while quantifying uncertainty. Experiments on four urban datasets (Beijing, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Ancona) across 1-3 day horizons show that NeuroDDAF consistently outperforms strong baselines, including AirPhyNet, achieving up to 9.7% reduction in RMSE and 9.4% reduction in MAE on long-term forecasts. On the Beijing dataset, NeuroDDAF attains an RMSE of 41.63

μ

g/m

^3

for 1-day prediction and 48.88

μ

g/m

^3

for 3-day prediction, representing the best performance among all compared methods. In addition, NeuroDDAF improves cross-city generalization and yields well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as confirmed by ensemble variance analysis and case studies under varying wind conditions.

Prasanjit Dey, Soumyabrata Dev, Angela Meyer +1

Air Quality Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 1, 2026

Predicting Dynamics of Ultra-Large Complex Systems by Inferring Governing Equations

Predicting the behavior of ultra-large complex systems, from climate to biological and technological networks, is a central unsolved challenge. Existing approaches face a fundamental trade-off: equation discovery methods provide interpretability but fail to scale, while neural networks scale but operate as black boxes and often lose reliability over long times. Here, we introduce the Sparse Identification Graph Neural Network, a framework that overcome this divide by allowing to infer the governing equations of large networked systems from data. By defining symbolic discovery as edge-level information, SIGN decouples the scalability of sparse identification from network size, enabling efficient equation discovery even in large systems. SIGN allows to study networks with over 100,000 nodes while remaining robust to noise, sparse sampling, and missing data. Across diverse benchmark systems, including coupled chaotic oscillators, neural dynamics, and epidemic spreading, it recovers governing equations with high precision and sustains accurate long-term predictions. Applied to a data set of time series of temperature measurements in 71,987 sea surface positions, SIGN identifies a compact predictive network model and captures large-scale sea surface temperature conditions up to two years in advance. By enabling equation discovery at previously inaccessible scales, SIGN opens a path toward interpretable and reliable prediction of real-world complex systems.

Qi Shao, Duxin Chen, Jiawen Chen +5

School of Mathematics, Southeast University, Nanjing, 210096, P. R. China. · School of Electronic Engineering and Computer Science, Queen Mary University of London, London, E1 4NS, UK. · School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London E1 4NS, UK. +4

Dynamical Systems Nonlinear System Identification Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics Spatiotemporal Forecasting Spatiotemporal GNNs

Apr 1, 2026

Real Time Local Wind Inference for Robust Autonomous Navigation

This thesis presents a solution that enables aerial robots to reason about surrounding wind flow fields in real time using on board sensors and embedded flight hardware. The core novelty of this research is the fusion of range measurements with sparse in situ wind measurements to predict surrounding flow fields. We aim to address two fundamental questions: first, the sufficiency of topographical data for accurate wind prediction in dense urban environments; and second, the utility of learned wind models for motion planning with an emphasis on energy efficiency and obstacle avoidance. Drawing on tools from deep learning, fluid mechanics, and optimal control, we establish a framework for local wind prediction using navigational LiDAR, and then incorporate local wind model priors into a receding-horizon optimal controller to study how local wind knowledge affects energy use and robustness during autonomous navigation. Through simulated demonstrations in diverse urban wind scenarios we evaluate the predictive capabilities of the wind predictor, and quantify improvements to autonomous urban navigation in terms of crash rates and energy consumption when local wind information is integrated into the motion planning. Sub-scale free flight experiments in an open-air wind tunnel demonstrate that these algorithms can run in real time on an embedded flight computer with sufficient bandwidth for stable control of a small aerial robot. Philosophically, this thesis contributes a new paradigm for localized wind inference and motion planning in unknown windy environments. By enabling robots to rapidly assess local wind conditions without prior environmental knowledge, this research accelerates the introduction of aerial robots into increasingly challenging environments.

Spencer Folk

Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics, University of Pennsylvania

Aerial Robotics Robot Navigation Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Mar 31, 2026

Hybrid Quantum-Classical Spatiotemporal Forecasting for 3D Cloud Fields

Accurate forecasting of three-dimensional (3D) cloud fields is important for atmospheric analysis and short-range numerical weather prediction, yet it remains challenging because cloud evolution involves cross-layer interactions, nonlocal dependencies, and multiscale spatiotemporal dynamics. Existing spatiotemporal prediction models based on convolutions, recurrence, or attention often rely on locality-biased representations and therefore struggle to preserve fine cloud structures in volumetric forecasting tasks. To address this issue, we propose QENO, a hybrid quantum-inspired spatiotemporal forecasting framework for 3D cloud fields. The proposed architecture consists of four components: a classical spatiotemporal encoder for compact latent representation, a topology-aware quantum enhancement block for modeling nonlocal couplings in latent space, a dynamic fusion temporal unit for integrating measurement-derived quantum features with recurrent memory, and a decoder for reconstructing future cloud volumes. Experiments on CMA-MESO 3D cloud fields show that QENO consistently outperforms representative baselines, including ConvLSTM, PredRNN++, Earthformer, TAU, and SimVP variants, in terms of MSE, MAE, RMSE, SSIM, and threshold-based detection metrics. In particular, QENO achieves an MSE of 0.2038, an RMSE of 0.4514, and an SSIM of 0.6291, while also maintaining a compact parameter budget. These results indicate that topology-aware hybrid quantum-classical feature modeling is a promising direction for 3D cloud structure forecasting and atmospheric Earth observation data analysis.

Fu Wang, Qifeng Lu, Xinyu Long +4

CMA Earth system Modeling and Prediction Center (CEMC) and State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (LaSW), Beijing, 100081, China · the School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sichuan University of Science and Engineering, Yibin City, 643000, China · the School of Electronic and Communication Engineering, Guangzhou University, Guangzhou, 510006, China +2

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Weather Forecasting Hybrid Quantum-Classical ML

Mar 31, 2026

Improving Ensemble Forecasts of Abnormally Deflecting Tropical Cyclones with Fused Atmosphere-Ocean-Terrain Data

Deep learning-based tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting methods have demonstrated significant potential and application advantages, as they feature much lower computational cost and faster operation speed than numerical weather prediction models. However, existing deep learning methods still have key limitations: they can only process a single type of sequential trajectory data or homogeneous meteorological variables, and fail to achieve accurate forecasting of abnormal deflected TCs. To address these challenges, we present two groundbreaking contributions. First, we have constructed a multimodal and multi-source dataset named AOT-TCs for TC forecasting in the Northwest Pacific basin. As the first dataset of its kind, it innovatively integrates heterogeneous variables from the atmosphere, ocean, and land, thus obtaining a comprehensive and information-rich meteorological dataset. Second, based on the AOT-TCs dataset, we propose a forecasting model that can handle both normal and abnormally deflected TCs. This is the first TC forecasting model to adopt an explicit atmosphere-ocean-terrain coupling architecture, enabling it to effectively capture complex interactions across physical domains. Extensive experiments on all TC cases in the Northwest Pacific from 2017 to 2024 show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance in TC forecasting: it not only significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of normal TCs but also breaks through the technical bottleneck in forecasting abnormally deflected TCs.

Qixiang Li, Yuan Zhou, Shuwei Huo +2

School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China · Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, and the Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting Weather Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Multimodal Fusion

Mar 29, 2026

E-TIDE: Fast, Structure-Preserving Motion Forecasting from Event Sequences

Event-based cameras capture visual information as asynchronous streams of per-pixel brightness changes, generating sparse, temporally precise data. Compared to conventional frame-based sensors, they offer significant advantages in capturing high-speed dynamics while consuming substantially less power. Predicting future event representations from past observations is an important problem, enabling downstream tasks such as future semantic segmentation or object tracking without requiring access to future sensor measurements. While recent state-of-the-art approaches achieve strong performance, they often rely on computationally heavy backbones and, in some cases, large-scale pretraining, limiting their applicability in resource-constrained scenarios. In this work, we introduce E-TIDE, a lightweight, end-to-end trainable architecture for event-tensor prediction that is designed to operate efficiently without large-scale pretraining. Our approach employs the TIDE module (Temporal Interaction for Dynamic Events), motivated by efficient spatiotemporal interaction design for sparse event tensors, to capture temporal dependencies via large-kernel mixing and activity-aware gating while maintaining low computational complexity. Experiments on standard event-based datasets demonstrate that our method achieves competitive performance with significantly reduced model size and training requirements, making it well-suited for real-time deployment under tight latency and memory budgets.

Biswadeep Sen, Benoit R. Cottereau, Nicolas Cuperlier +1

National University of Singapore, Singapore · CerCo, CNRS UMR 5549, Universit´e de Toulouse, France · ETIS UMR8051, CY Cergy Paris Universit´e, ENSEA, CNRS, Cergy, France +1

Event-Based Vision Efficient Neural Network Inference Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Mar 29, 2026

AIFS-COMPO: A Global Data-Driven Atmospheric Composition Forecasting System

We introduce AIFS-COMPO, a skilful medium-range data-driven global forecasting system for aerosols and reactive gases. Building on the ECMWF Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS), AIFS-COMPO employs a transformer-based encoder-processor-decoder architecture to jointly model meteorological and atmospheric composition variables. The model is trained on Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalysis, analysis, and forecast data to learn the coupled dynamics of weather, emissions, transport, and atmospheric chemistry. We evaluate AIFS-COMPO against a range of atmospheric composition observations and compare its performance with the operational CAMS global forecasting system IFS-COMPO. The results show that AIFS-COMPO achieves comparable or improved forecast skill for several key species while requiring only a fraction of the computational resources. Furthermore, the efficiency of the approach enables forecasts beyond the current operational horizon, demonstrating the potential of AI-based systems for fast and accurate global atmospheric composition prediction.

Paula Harder, Johannes Flemming, Mihai Alexe +3

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Air Quality Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Mar 27, 2026

Characterization and forecasting of national-scale solar power ramp events

The rapid growth of solar energy is reshaping power system operations and increasing the complexity of grid management. As photovoltaic (PV) capacity expands, short-term fluctuations in PV generation introduce substantial operational uncertainty. At the same time, solar power ramp events intensify risks of grid instability and unplanned outages due to sudden large power fluctuations. Accurate identification, forecasting and mitigation of solar ramp events are therefore critical to maintaining grid stability. In this study, we analyze two years of PV power production from 6434 PV stations at 15-minute resolution. We develop quantitative metrics to define solar ramp events and systematically characterize their occurrence, frequency, and magnitude at a national scale. Furthermore, we examine the meteorological drivers of ramp events, highlighting the role of mesoscale cloud systems. In particular, we observe that ramp-up events are typically associated with cloud dissipation during the morning, while ramp-down events commonly occur when cloud cover increases in the afternoon. Additionally, we adopt a recently developed spatiotemporal forecasting framework to evaluate both deterministic and probabilistic PV power forecasts derived from deep learning and physics-based models, including SolarSTEPS, SHADECast, IrradianceNet, and IFS-ENS. The results show that SHADECast is the most reliable model, achieving a CRPS 10.8% lower than that of SolarSTEPS at a two-hour lead time. Nonetheless, state-of-the-art nowcasting models struggle to capture ramp dynamics, with forecast RMSE increasing by up to 50% compared to normal operating conditions. Overall, these results emphasize the need for improved high-resolution spatiotemporal modelling to enhance ramp prediction skill and support the reliable integration of large-scale solar generation into power systems.

Luca Lanzilao, Angela Meyer

School of Engineering and Computer Science, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Quellgasse 21, Biel, 2501, Bern, Switzerland · Department of Geosciences and Remote Sensing, TU Delft, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, South-Holland, The Netherlands

Solar Power Forecasting Power Systems Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Mar 27, 2026

GLU: Global-Local-Uncertainty Fusion for Scalable Spatiotemporal Reconstruction and Forecasting

Digital twins of complex physical systems are expected to infer unobserved states from sparse measurements and predict their evolution in time, yet these two functions are typically treated as separate tasks. Here we present GLU, a Global-Local-Uncertainty framework that formulates sparse reconstruction and dynamic forecasting as a unified state-representation problem and introduces a structured latent assembly to both tasks. The central idea is to build a structured latent state that combines a global summary of system-level organization, local tokens anchored to available measurements, and an uncertainty-driven importance field that weights observations according to the physical informativeness. For reconstruction, GLU uses importance-aware adaptive neighborhood selection to retrieve locally relevant information while preserving global consistency and allowing flexible query resolution on arbitrary geometries. Across a suite of challenging benchmarks, GLU consistently improves reconstruction fidelity over reduced-order, convolutional, neural operator, and attention-based baselines, better preserving multi-scale structures. For forecasting, a hierarchical Leader-Follower Dynamics module evolves the latent state with substantially reduced memory growth, maintains stable rollout behavior and delays error accumulation in nonlinear dynamics. On a realistic turbulent combustion dataset, it further preserves not only sharp fronts and broadband structures in multiple physical fields, but also their cross-channel thermo-chemical couplings. Scalability tests show that these gains are achieved with substantially lower memory growth than comparable attention-based baselines. Together, these results establish GLU as a flexible and computationally practical paradigm for sparse digital twins.

Linzheng Wang, Jason Chen, Nicolas Tricard +2

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139, MA, United States of America.

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Digital Twins State Representation Learning

Mar 26, 2026

Spatiotemporal System Forecasting with Irregular Time Steps via Masked Autoencoder

Predicting high-dimensional dynamical systems with irregular time steps presents significant challenges for current data-driven algorithms. These irregularities arise from missing data, sparse observations, or adaptive computational techniques, reducing prediction accuracy. To address these limitations, we propose a novel method: a Physics-Spatiotemporal Masked Autoencoder. This method integrates convolutional autoencoders for spatial feature extraction with masked autoencoders optimised for irregular time series, leveraging attention mechanisms to reconstruct the entire physical sequence in a single prediction pass. The model avoids the need for data imputation while preserving physical integrity of the system. Here, 'physics' refers to high-dimensional fields generated by underlying dynamical systems, rather than the enforcement of explicit physical constraints or PDE residuals. We evaluate this approach on multiple simulated datasets and real-world ocean temperature data. The results demonstrate that our method achieves significant improvements in prediction accuracy, robustness to nonlinearities, and computational efficiency over traditional convolutional and recurrent network methods. The model shows potential for capturing complex spatiotemporal patterns without requiring domain-specific knowledge, with applications in climate modelling, fluid dynamics, ocean forecasting, environmental monitoring, and scientific computing.

Kewei Zhu, Yanze Xin, Jinwei Hu +3

Department of Chemical Engineering, University College London, UK · Department of Computing, Imperial College London, UK · Department of Computer Science, University of Liverpool, UK +4

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Irregular Time-Series Modeling Masked Autoencoders

Mar 26, 2026

Pure and physics-guided deep learning approaches for spatio-temporal groundwater level prediction

Groundwater represents a key element of the water cycle, yet it exhibits complex and context-dependent relationships that make its modeling challenging. Theory-based models have been the cornerstone of scientific understanding. However, their computational cost, simplifying assumptions, and calibration requirements limit their use. In recent years, data-driven models have emerged as powerful alternatives. In particular, deep learning has proven to be a promising approach for its design flexibility and ability to learn complex relationships directly from the data without requiring extensive domain information. We proposed an attention-based pure deep learning model, named STAINet, to predict weekly groundwater levels in Piedmont (Italy), leveraging both irregular groundwater time series and weather image sequences. To enhance the model's trustworthiness and generalization ability, we merged the theory and data-driven approaches by considering physics-guided strategies to inject the groundwater flow equation into the model. Firstly, we restructured the tail of the architecture to predict the three terms of the governing equation, named the autoregressive, diffusion, and residual components - we thus obtained the PSTAINet-IB. Then, we further injected physics priors by adding loss terms related to the estimated equation components, obtaining the PSTAINet-ILB model. Lastly, we developed the PSTAINet-ILRB by imposing a loss term specific to the residual component, which forces the groundwater recharge to occur within the groundwater body recharge zone, which is identified by domain experts. The models were evaluated both by feeding true lagged values as input and by iterating their own predictions (rollouts) over the whole test set. The PSTAINet-ILB model performed the best, achieving remarkable test performance, and generating equation components in line with domain experts' expectations.

Matteo Salis, Gabriele Sartor, Rosa Meo +2

Computer Science Department, University of Turin, Turin, Italy · LISTIC Laboratory, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, Annecy-le-vieux, France · Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning, Politecnico di Torino and University of Turin, Turin, Italy

Physics-Informed ML Attention Mechanisms Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Mar 25, 2026

Marchuk: Efficient Global Weather Forecasting from Mid-Range to Sub-Seasonal Scales via Flow Matching

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasting remains a major challenge due to the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which limits the predictive skill of conventional models beyond the mid-range horizon (approximately 15 days). In this work, we present Marchuk, a generative latent flow-matching model for global weather forecasting spanning mid-range to subseasonal timescales, with prediction horizons of up to 30 days. Marchuk conditions on current-day weather maps and autoregressively predicts subsequent days' weather maps within the learned latent space. We replace rotary positional encodings (RoPE) with trainable positional embeddings and extend the temporal context window, which together enhance the model's ability to represent and propagate long-range temporal dependencies during latent forecasting. Marchuk offers two key advantages: high computational efficiency and strong predictive performance. Despite its compact architecture of only 276 million parameters, the model achieves performance comparable to LaDCast, a substantially larger model with 1.6 billion parameters, while operating at significantly higher inference speeds. We open-source our inference code and model at: https://v-gen-ai.github.io/Marchuk/

Arsen Kuzhamuratov, Mikhail Zhirnov, Andrey Kuznetsov +2

AXXX · FusionBrain Lab

Weather Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Flow-Based Generative Modeling

Mar 24, 2026

BHCast: Unlocking Black Hole Plasma Dynamics from a Single Blurry Image with Long-Term Forecasting

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first image of a black hole by capturing the light from its surrounding accretion flow, revealing structure but not dynamics. Simulations of black hole accretion dynamics are essential for interpreting EHT images but costly to generate and impractical for inference. Motivated by this bottleneck, BHCast presents a framework for forecasting black hole plasma dynamics from a single, blurry snapshot, such as those captured by the EHT. At its core, BHCast is a neural model that transforms a static image into forecasted future frames, revealing the underlying dynamics hidden within one snapshot. With a multi-scale pyramid loss, we demonstrate how autoregressive forecasting can simultaneously super-resolve and evolve a blurry frame into a coherent, high-resolution movie that remains stable over long time horizons. From forecasted dynamics, we can then extract interpretable spatio-temporal features, such as pattern speed (rotation rate) and pitch angle. Finally, BHCast uses gradient-boosting trees to recover black hole properties from these plasma features, including the spin and viewing inclination angle. The separation between forecasting and inference provides modular flexibility, interpretability, and robust uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the effectiveness of BHCast on simulations of two distinct black hole accretion systems, Sagittarius A* and M87*, by testing on simulated frames blurred to EHT resolution and real EHT images of M87*. Ultimately, our methodology establishes a scalable paradigm for solving inverse problems, demonstrating the potential of learned dynamics to unlock insights from resolution-limited scientific data.

Renbo Tu, Ali SaraerToosi, Nicholas S. Conroy +2

University of Toronto · Vector Institute · University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign +1

Astrophysics Spatiotemporal Forecasting Parameter Estimation

Mar 24, 2026

WaveSFNet: A Wavelet-Based Codec and Spatial--Frequency Dual-Domain Gating Network for Spatiotemporal Prediction

Spatiotemporal predictive learning aims to forecast future frames from historical observations in an unsupervised manner, and is critical to a wide range of applications. The key challenge is to model long-range dynamics while preserving high-frequency details for sharp multi-step predictions. Existing efficient recurrent-free frameworks typically rely on strided convolutions or pooling for sampling, which tends to discard textures and boundaries, while purely spatial operators often struggle to balance local interactions with global propagation. To address these issues, we propose WaveSFNet, an efficient framework that unifies a wavelet-based codec with a spatial--frequency dual-domain gated spatiotemporal translator. The wavelet-based codec preserves high-frequency subband cues during downsampling and reconstruction. Meanwhile, the translator first injects adjacent-frame differences to explicitly enhance dynamic information, and then performs dual-domain gated fusion between large-kernel spatial local modeling and frequency-domain global modulation, together with gated channel interaction for cross-channel feature exchange. Extensive experiments demonstrate that WaveSFNet achieves competitive prediction accuracy on Moving MNIST, TaxiBJ, and WeatherBench, while maintaining low computational complexity. Our code is available at https://github.com/fhjdqaq/WaveSFNet.

Xinyong Cai, Runming Xie, Hu Chen +1

College of Software Engineering, Sichuan University · College of Computer Science, Sichuan University · Sichuan University National Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Synthetic Vision

Spatiotemporal Forecasting Convolutional Neural Networks Frequency-Domain Feature Learning

Mar 22, 2026

Sonny: Breaking the Compute Wall in Medium-Range Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for protecting lives and infrastructure from high-impact atmospheric events. Recently, data-driven weather forecasting methods based on deep learning have demonstrated strong performance, often reaching accuracy levels competitive with operational numerical systems. However, many existing models rely on large-scale training regimes and compute-intensive architectures, which raises the practical barrier for academic groups with limited compute resources. Here we introduce Sonny, an efficient hierarchical transformer that achieves competitive medium-range forecasting performance while remaining feasible within reasonable compute budgets. At the core of Sonny is a two-stage StepsNet design: a narrow slow path first models large-scale atmospheric dynamics, and a subsequent full-width fast path integrates thermodynamic interactions. To stabilize medium-range rollout without an additional fine-tuning stage, we apply exponential moving average (EMA) during training. On WeatherBench2, Sonny yields robust medium-range forecast skill, remains competitive with operational baselines, and demonstrates clear advantages over FastNet, particularly at extended tropical lead times. In practice, Sonny can be trained to convergence on a single NVIDIA A40 GPU in approximately 5.5 days.

Minjong Cheon

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sejong University, Seoul, South Korea

Weather Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Transformer

Mar 20, 2026

Data-driven ensemble prediction of the global ocean

Data-driven models have advanced deterministic ocean forecasting, but extending machine learning to probabilistic global ocean prediction remains an open challenge. Here we introduce FuXi-ONS, the first machine-learning ensemble forecasting system for the global ocean, providing 5-day forecasts on a global 1° grid up to 365 days for sea-surface temperature, sea-surface height, subsurface temperature, salinity and ocean currents. Rather than relying on repeated integration of computationally expensive numerical models, FuXi-ONS learns physically structured perturbations and incorporates an atmospheric encoding module to stabilize long-range forecasts. Evaluated against GLORYS12 reanalysis, FuXi-ONS improves both ensemble-mean skill and probabilistic forecast quality relative to deterministic and noise-perturbed baselines, and shows competitive performance against established seasonal forecast references for SST and Niño3.4 variability, while running orders of magnitude faster than conventional ensemble systems. These results provide a strong example of machine learning advancing a core problem in ocean science, and establish a practical path toward efficient probabilistic ocean forecasting and climate risk assessment.

Qiusheng Huang, Xiaohui Zhong, Anboyu Guo +3

Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Incubation Institute, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. · Shanghai Innovation Institute, Shanghai, China. · Shanghai Academy of Artificial Intelligence for Science, Shanghai, China. +2

Probabilistic Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Climate Science Ensemble Learning

Mar 18, 2026

End-to-end data-driven prediction of urban airflow and pollutant dispersion

Climate change and the rapid growth of urban populations are intensifying environmental stresses within cities, making the behavior of urban atmospheric flows a critical factor in public health, energy use, and overall livability. This study targets to develop fast and accurate models of urban pollutant dispersion to support decision-makers, enabling them to implement mitigation measures in a timely and cost-effective manner. To reach this goal, an end-to-end data-driven approach is proposed to model and predict the airflow and pollutant dispersion in a street canyon in skimming flow regime. A series of time-resolved snapshots obtained from large eddy simulation (LES) serves as the database. The proposed framework is based on four fundamental steps. Firstly, a reduced basis is obtained by spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD) of the database. The projection of the time series snapshot data onto the SPOD modes (time-domain approach) provides the temporal coefficients of the dynamics. Secondly, a nonlinear compression of the temporal coefficients is performed by autoencoder to reduce further the dimensionality of the problem. Thirdly, a reduced-order model (ROM) is learned in the latent space using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) netowrks. Finally, the pollutant dispersion is estimated from the predicted velocity field through convolutional neural network that maps both fields. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the model in predicting the instantaneous as well as statistically stationary fields over long time horizon.

Nishant Kumar, Franck Kerhervé, Lionel Agostini +1

Institut Pprime, CNRS, Université de Poitiers, ISAE-ENSMA, Curiosity Team, Bât. H2 - Bd. Marie & Pierre Curie TSA 51124, 86073 Poitiers Cedex 9, France

Air Quality Prediction Spatiotemporal Forecasting Reduced-Order Modeling