Sports Analytics

Elite athletics throwing provides a structured biomechanical action sequence together with an objective continuous outcome, namely throw distance, making it a suitable setting for performance-oriented sports analytics. In this work, we investigate whether explicit phase alignment of pose dynamics improves throw-distance prediction under realistic broadcast conditions. To support this study, we curate Throwing4, a dataset of 500 elite throwing clips spanning javelin, discus, hammer, and shot put, with corresponding two-dimensional pose sequences, frame-level phase annotations, and official distance labels. We formulate throw-distance prediction from broadcast-derived pose as a regression problem and compare full-sequence modeling against a phase-conditioned approach that partitions each attempt into four technique stages and fuses phase-specific motion representations. Experiments across multiple graph-based pose encoders show a consistent reduction in prediction error when phase structure is incorporated, indicating that phase-aligned modeling provides a more stable representation than treating the entire motion as an unstructured sequence. These findings suggest that explicit biomechanical phase information is a useful inductive prior for pose-based performance modeling in elite athletics throwing. Beyond score prediction, the dataset and protocol provide a basis for future work on fine-grained technique analysis, interpretable sports analytics, and robust modeling from broadcast video.

A punch is a ballistic, full-body action driven by a kinetic chain running from the legs through the trunk to the arm, where a small sequencing error separates a scoring strike from a miss. Wearable sensors can capture this movement in the gym, but most deployable systems only classify which punch was thrown rather than assess how well it was thrown. We present Skill Profiling with Attributable Reasoning (SPAR), an eight-IMU garment and pressure-insole system that classifies each punch as expert or novice and treats an explanation of that prediction as feedback. Feedback is only useful if the person receiving it can act on it, so SPAR explains the prediction at three tiers, a per-joint attribution for the analyst, a counterfactual over kinetic-chain layers for the coach, and a plain-language narrative of the two for the athlete. Across 17 participants and 4,713 punches, SPAR reaches a leave-one-participant-out AUC of 0.842 (95% CI [0.769, 0.907] over participants). A frozen time-series foundation model encodes the joint-angle and plantar-force series, and a small transformer trained on the cohort classifies the encoding. We audit the two quantitative tiers and report six themes from a thematic analysis of interviews with six practicing boxing coaches.

Soccer tactics are interactive: an attacking action changes the opponent's defensive problem, and the observed response depends on the multi-agent match state. We introduce SambaGraph, an action--reaction spatio-temporal graph dataset and benchmark for soccer tactical response modeling. From tracking and event data for all 64 matches of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, we curate 4,070 action-centered episodes represented as temporally aligned 23-node player--ball graph sequences with attack/defense views, response labels, and 26,270 split-safe attack--defense pairs. We study three questions: whether observed responses can be classified from graph episodes, whether successful defenses can be retrieved for a query attack, and whether graph-derived summaries support grounded LLM reasoning. A compact signature MLP obtains $0.796\pm0.007$ macro-F1 for response classification, while a fused graph--signature dual encoder reaches $0.471\pm0.029$ Hit@5 and $0.655\pm0.051$ Hit@10 for full-bank defensive retrieval. Hard negatives maximize pair discrimination but not retrieval quality. Local LLMs underperform supervised encoders for direct classification and do not improve over a strong original order in eight-candidate reranking, but they provide grounded tactical rationales. These results position SambaGraph as a reproducible benchmark for graph-based soccer strategy-response research. Code and dataset are available at: https://github.com/areyesan/SambaGraph.

Sports data analysts translate domain questions into insights by combining computation with sport-specific domain expertise. Large language models ease programming, but prompt-to-report workflows may obscure decisions and evidence. We present AI Soccer Analyst, a mixed-initiative system with revisable stages: Data Understanding, Problem Definition, Structured Planning, Execution, Evidence-Grounded Reporting, and Interaction and Refinement. A formative study with five analysts first informed design goals for automation, verifiability, human control, and accessibility. Subsequently, a task-based evaluation with 16 participants combined system logs, retained artifacts, ratings, and open responses; 33 of 48 tasks met the operational completion criteria. Exploratory tests supported favorable participant perceptions of completed-task output quality, task achievement, reliability, and verifiability after Holm correction. Interaction records showed domain knowledge emerging through clarification, planning, and refinement. These findings position stage-aware human-AI collaboration as a practical approach for producing inspectable, revisable, and verifiable analyses while retaining domain-expert involvement in consequential decisions.

Velocity-aware pitch control is standard, but under a broadcast viewport half the players are off screen and on-screen velocities come from a drifting calibration. We ask at which layer of broadcast off-ball analysis velocity changes the answer. Inheriting our off-screen imputation protocol (three Metrica matches, 44 m viewport, block-bootstrap CIs), we score four velocity regimes -- none, viewport-legal observed, true-for-visible, true-for-all -- against a velocity-aware ground truth at three layers: imputation, the control surface, and team verdicts. Velocity is nearly useless for imputation (-0.2 pp against a 12--14 pp velocity-free surface MAE), first-order for the surface (-1.5 to -1.8 pp, 11--15% of that MAE), and ten times smaller for verdicts (-0.12 to -0.19 pp). The velocity that matters is the visible channel: perfect occluded-player velocity adds 2--6% of the visible gain, and no last-seen decay policy we tested exceeds that. Omitting velocity blurs the surface (per-frame |e| 2.2--2.6 pp) with small time-averaged bias (per cell <=0.4 pp), whereas imputation error is a structured bias against the defending team's deep zone (5--9 pp). At a fixed velocity window, a noise ladder of eleven jitter settings, including sigma_v-matched pairs, is ordered to first order by one velocity-noise axis sigma_v with break-even ~1 m/s; eleven SoccerNet-GSR clips from one match through our pipeline measure sigma_v=1.65 m/s yet recover 24--36% of the benefit: 43% of the variance is frame-common, which the surface tolerates, and the residual is heavy-tailed and clustered, which Gaussian controls matched on component RMS do not reproduce (+0.03 vs. +0.36). The share of velocity-free error that velocity removes grows with viewport width (7% at 36 m, 21% at 60 m): fix imputation on tight shots, velocity on wide ones. Code and logs are released.

School coaches prepare for opponents with game film and intuition. The analytics tools of professional teams stay out of reach. We ask how far public data can close this gap. Professional basketball is our case study, chosen for its data rather than the league. We fuse five public sources into one per-shot dataset of 4.23M shots over 21 seasons. The sources are shot locations, two play-by-play feeds, official matchup tracking, and player biometrics. Alignment across them is 99.5% to 100%. We also report two data pitfalls that are easy to miss. We then model a half-court possession as a sequential game. Shot values come from ShotNet, an embedding multilayer perceptron (MLP). On a held-out season it beats a zone-rate baseline and a logistic baseline, and its probabilities are well calibrated. A depth-limited expectimax search then solves the offensive decision tree, with branch-and-bound pruning to keep it real time. All training runs offline, so the online system stays light. A scouting planner and a playable simulator both run in a single browser page.

Sports have witnessed growing global enthusiasm in recent years, serving as a vital force for physical health, cultural exchange, social connection, and economic growth. The rapid advancement of large models, particularly (multimodal) large language models (M)LLMs, has demonstrated transformative potential to reshape sports understanding, analysis, and interaction across diverse domains. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of large models in sports, including (i) an overview of tasks and applications across different participant groups; (ii) a detailed analysis of sports-related datasets and benchmarks; and (iii) a critical discussion of current challenges and future directions. Our goal is to establish a foundation for advancing research and practical development of large-model-driven sports intelligence. An open-source GitHub repository is maintained at: https://github.com/Road2Redemption/Awesome_Large_Models_In_Sports1.

Traditional player evaluation in professional handball relies on basic box-score metrics or heuristic indices, which fail to credit the multi-player build-up chain. While football (soccer) analytics has adopted Expected Threat (xT) and Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities (VAEP), these event-based action valuation frameworks have not yet been adapted to handball. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive adaptation and evaluation of xT and VAEP for handball, utilizing five seasons of tracking-derived event data from the Handball Bundesliga. We develop Handball-xT (H-xT) using a handball-native court zoning layout, demonstrating via simulations that it is systematically more robust than standard rectangular grids. We optimize Handball-VAEP (H-VAEP) by tailoring its feature space and selecting the context length to limit team-identity leakage. Our evaluation shows that H-VAEP yields exceptionally stable, discriminative, and intuitive player ratings that highlight build-up play. Finally, we release our complete code repository to help professional clubs deploy these models.

Ball possession is the most-cited and most-misleading number in football: 60% recycled in one's own half is not 60% spent pinning the opponent back. Existing event-based possession-value frameworks (expected threat, VAEP, on-ball value) price on-ball actions but ignore the off-ball question a sterile possession poses: did holding the ball create space, or was the circulation dead? We answer this in two layers. First, an event-side junk-possession index prices each possession sequence by its peak threat gain under an expected-threat grid and -- after reconstructing the live scoreline to exclude lead-protecting circulation -- flags low-threat sequences in tied-or-losing states. On the 2026 FIFA World Cup (103 matches, 206 team-matches) the flag correlates negatively with points (r=-0.37) and xG difference (r=-0.51, partly index-coupled). It is not a repackaging of on-ball value: with team offensive VAEP and field tilt held fixed, the junk flag stays strongly negatively associated with points (p<0.0001, also match-clustered) while VAEP is not significant -- in this same-match (descriptive) regression it adds information beyond this on-ball action-value model. Second, for a flagged window we resolve whether it was spatially dead or space-creating by projecting broadcast video to pitch coordinates and measuring a Space-Creation Index (SCI): a net pitch-control change capturing whether the possession seized space or pushed the opponent's block back. Across 31 of 35 flagged windows from nine World Cup matches (a purposive sample), 74% are spatially non-space-creating, 19% weak progression, and 6% space-creating windows the event flag alone would score as failure -- including a side with 73% of the ball that exited on penalties (two non-creating windows). The two layers separate space-creating-but-unconverted from sterile possession, a distinction event-only on-ball value cannot make.

Player-centric ball action spotting requires temporally precise event detection together with actor attribution in crowded, partially observed multi-agent sports videos. Existing Denoising Sequence Transduction (DST) baselines treat the player-role dimension as part of a flattened frame-level representation, which weakens the inductive bias for modeling player-specific temporal evolution and inter-player interactions. To address this limitation, we propose Multi-Entity Denoising Sequence Transduction (ME-DST). ME-DST keeps the role-slot dimension throughout encoding. It uses temporal attention to model the history of each role slot, and spatial attention to exchange information across role slots at each frame. This factorized design gives the model a direct structure for separating within-player evolution from inter-player context. We also add learnable role embeddings, tracking-derived tactical features, and fused visual predictions from X3D-L and Swin3D-S. Experiments on the FOOTPASS dataset show that ME-DST reaches a Micro F1 of 0.778. This improves the strongest official TAAD+DST baseline by 10.3 percentage points. Controlled ablations show that preserving the entity axis and encoding role identity are central to this gain. These results suggest that explicit entity modeling is an effective inductive bias for player-centric sports event understanding.

We present two approaches for predicting tennis match outcomes using topological data analysis and graph theory on ATP singles matches from 2000-2025. The first method applies lower-star filtration to player competitive networks, extracting topological features through persistent homology using four summary methods (VAB, HNAV, HWNAV, OW-HNPV) combined with Modified Band Depth analysis. Algorithmic optimizations including ego graph approximations and triangle elimination enable analysis of about 66k matches. Our Random Forest model achieves 66.2% accuracy (AUC = 0.719) using topological, graph-theoretic, and ranking features. Feature importance analysis reveals that rankings contribute 36.3%, centralities 25.5%, and TDA features 24.0%, with topological features providing complementary signal. When rankings are unavailable, the topology-only model maintains 63.56% accuracy, demonstrating that network-derived features alone capture meaningful competitive structure. The second method uses a modified Katz similarity index with temporal edge weighting, achieving 62.48% accuracy on held-out test data. This work represents the first application of lower-star filtration to tennis prediction, provides systematic comparison of four topological summary methods in sports analytics, and demonstrates that TDA can achieve above-chance prediction using network topology alone while providing additional value when combined with traditional features.

Spatial football metrics such as pitch control assume access to the positions of all 22 players, yet the most widely available source of positional data -- the broadcast main camera -- shows only 10-16 of them at any moment. We quantify the resulting distortion with an open, reproducible benchmark: a simulated broadcast viewport applied to open full-pitch tracking data (Metrica Sports; three matches, one held out from method development). Ignoring off-screen players -- the visible-only baseline implied whenever a video-based game-state-reconstruction (GSR) pipeline adds no imputation layer -- inflates hidden-zone pitch-control error to 25.1-26.9 percentage points and a mean absolute control-share error of 11.1-13.4 points across the three matches. We then evaluate a ladder of training-free, online imputation baselines that use only observations from the match being analysed. The best overall on these decision-relevant metrics, role-anchored centroid voting (each visible player votes for the full-team centroid by subtracting its running role offset, attenuating the viewport-induced subset bias), roughly halves hidden-zone error (to 12.2-13.8 points) and cuts control-share error to 28-48% of the ignore policy at every viewport width from 36 m to 60 m in all three matches. For occlusions <=9.6 s -- the regime of the closest learned prior work -- it reaches binwise median position errors of 3.3-8.9 m; but 50-57% of hidden-player observations lie beyond that regime. Integrated end-to-end into a broadcast-video GSR pipeline, imputation moves a downstream possession-quality score (Space-Creation Index) by 15.6 and 17.2 points on two real World Cup broadcast windows, flipping the verdict class in one.

The defensive performance of football players is commonly measured through a limited number of actions like tackles and interceptions while their continuous impact through positional behaviour has hardly been studied before. We formulate this problem as an attribution over multi-agent spatiotemporal trajectories without player-level ground truth labels, where event-level changes of expected threat are distributed among individuals. We propose a framework that performs this attribution using player involvement scores calculated from defensive pressure areas (DPAs). By computing role-conditioned baselines within automatically detected team structures, we can determine each defender's expected responsibility for threat created through arbitrary passes. The validity and robustness of this approach are evaluated on a uniquely extensive cross-gender and cross-competition data set, including positional and event data from 64 matches of the men's World Cup, 116 matches of the women's German Bundesliga and 336 matches of the men's German 3. Liga. In the absence of a ground truth, we propose an evaluation protocol that combines multiple relatively weak proxies into robust summary scores. We find a validity score that is improved by around 1 standard deviation compared to the best action-based metric and demonstrate that many popular measures show limited validity. The "blame" for conceding high-value actions shows especially strong correlations with external ratings and market values, making it the first published metric in football to reliably measure positioning errors. All code underlying this work is publicly available to support reproducibility and further research.

We recast pass evaluation in football (soccer) as a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS)-like evaluation problem whose components mostly exist in the literature under different names: a value model (possession value), a world model (multi-agent trajectories with ball interactions), and a policy over counterfactual actions (sampling pass variants with noise). Building on the first public high-fidelity tracking dataset with 3D ball trajectories from the Bundesliga, we introduce Monte Carlo Pass Search (MCPS), which infers kick parameters for each observed pass, samples execution variants and option variants, rolls each candidate forward with a ball-conditioned world model until the next ball interaction, and scores outcomes with a learned value model to obtain a distribution over gained value. This distribution enables distribution-aware attribution with two complementary execution-surplus scores used for analysis and ranking: mean-based and percentile-based scores. To make the world model sample-efficient under limited public data, we adapt a discrete-token, autoregressive trajectory generator from autonomous driving (SMART) and show it yields strong best-of-20 forecasting accuracy compared to baselines, while supporting fully hypothetical rollouts for downstream evaluation. We have released model checkpoints and code.

In professional sports, a team has clinched the playoffs if they are guaranteed a postseason spot, regardless of the outcomes of any remaining games. As the season progresses, sports fans and other stakeholders are interested in precisely when, and under what conditions, their team will clinch the playoffs. In this paper, we investigate playoff clinching in the context of the National Hockey League (NHL), where it is computationally challenging to produce clinching scenarios due, in part, to complex tie-breakers. We present an algorithm that determines under which combinations of game outcomes in the next $n$ days a team will clinch the playoffs (i.e., "$n$-day lookahead clinching"). Our approach is a custom tree search which employs various preprocessing techniques, pruning strategies, and node ordering heuristics to efficiently explore the space of possible outcomes. The tree search leverages a constraint programming (CP)-based subroutine for inference that determines if a team has clinched the playoffs for some snapshot in time of the regular season (i.e., "0-day lookahead clinching"). This CP subroutine aims to find a counter-example in which the team being evaluated is eliminated, taking into account qualification rules and the NHL's extensive list of tie-breakers. We validate the efficacy of our algorithm using hundreds of scenarios based on public NHL data for the seasons 2021-22 through 2024-25. The methods introduced can be readily extended to other metrics of interest, including mathematical proof of playoff elimination, clinching the President's Trophy, as well as clinching (or being eliminated from clinching) any other seed in the standings.

Generating sports game reports from structured tables is a complex table-to-text task that demands both precise data interpretation and fluent narrative generation. Traditional model-based approaches require large, annotated datasets, while prompt-based methods using large language models (LLMs) often struggle with hallucination due to weak table comprehension. To overcome these challenges, we propose Tree-of-Text, a tree-structured prompting framework that guides LLMs through a three-stage generation process: (1) Content Planning, where relevant operations and arguments are selected from the input tables; (2) Operation Execution, which breaks down large tables into manageable sub-tables; and (3) Content Generation, where short textual outputs are merged and rewritten into a cohesive report. Experiments show that our method outperforms existing methods on ShuttleSet+, leads in RG and CO metrics on RotoWire-FG, and excels in CS and CO on MLB with roughly 40% of the time and cost of Chain-of-Table. These results demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of Tree-of-Text and suggest a promising direction for prompt-based table-to-text generation in the sports domain.

Automated sports analysis demands robust multi-object tracking (MOT), yet segmentation-based methods often struggle with mask errors and ID switches in dense scenes. We propose SAMIDARE, a framework that enhances SAM2MOT for crowded scenes through three key components: (1) density-aware mask re-generation and (2) selective memory updates, both for adaptive mask control to preserve target feature integrity, and (3) state-aware association and new track initialization, which improves robustness under mutual occlusions and frequent frame-out events. Evaluated on the SportsMOT dataset, SAMIDARE achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the baseline by 2.5 HOTA and 4.2 IDF1 points on the validation set. These results demonstrate that adaptive feature management using mask control and state-aware association provide a robust and efficient solution for dense sports tracking. Code is available at https://github.com/ZabuZabuZabu/SAMIDARE

Human Activity Recognition (HAR) involves the automatic identification of user activities and has gained significant research interest due to its broad applicability. Most HAR systems rely on supervised learning, which necessitates large, diverse, and well-annotated datasets. However, existing datasets predominantly focus on basic activities such as walking, standing, and stair navigation, limiting their utility in specialized contexts like sports performance analysis. To address this gap, we present BasketHAR, a novel multimodal HAR dataset tailored for basketball training, encompassing a diverse set of professional-level actions. BasketHAR includes comprehensive motion data from inertial measurement units (accelerometers and gyroscopes), angular velocity, magnetic field, heart rate, skin temperature, and synchronized video recordings. We also provide a baseline multimodal alignment method to benchmark performance. Experimental results underscore the dataset's complexity and suitability for advanced HAR tasks. Furthermore, we highlight its potential applications in the analysis of basketball training sessions and in the generation of specialized performance reports, representing a valuable resource for future research in HAR and sports analytics. The dataset are publicly accessible at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Xian-Gao/BasketHAR licensed under Apache License 2.0.

Fatigue monitoring is central in association football due to its links with injury risk and tactical performance. However, objective fatigue-related indicators are commonly derived from subjective self-reported metrics, biomarkers derived from laboratory tests, or, more recently, intrusive sensors such as heart monitors or GPS tracking data. This paper studies whether monocular broadcast videos can provide spatio-temporal signals of sufficient quality to support fatigue-oriented analysis. Building on state-of-the-art Game State Reconstruction methods, we extract player trajectories in pitch coordinates and propose a novel kinematics processing algorithm to obtain temporally consistent speed and acceleration estimates from reconstructed tracks. We then construct acceleration--speed (A-S) profiles from these signals and analyze their behavior as fatigue-related performance indicators. We evaluate the full pipeline on the public SoccerNet-GSR benchmark, considering both 30-second clips and a complete 45-minute half to examine short-term reliability and longer-term temporal consistency. Our results indicate that monocular GSR can recover kinematic patterns that are compatible with A-S profiling while also revealing sensitivity to trajectory noise, calibration errors, and temporal discontinuities inherent to broadcast footage. These findings support monocular broadcast video as a low-cost basis for fatigue analysis and delineate the methodological challenges for future research.

Applying large, proprietary API-based language models to text-to-SQL tasks poses a significant industry challenge: reliance on massive, schema-heavy prompts results in prohibitive per-token API costs and high latency, hindering scalable production deployment. We present a specialized, self-hosted 8B-parameter model designed for a conversational bot in CriQ, a sister app to Dream11, India's largest fantasy sports platform with over 250 million users, that answers user queries about cricket statistics. Our novel two-phase supervised fine-tuning approach enables the model to internalize the entire database schema, eliminating the need for long-context prompts. This reduces input tokens by over 99%, from a 17k-token baseline to fewer than 100, and replaces costly external API calls with efficient local inference. The resulting system achieves 98.4% execution success and 92.5% semantic accuracy, substantially outperforming a prompt-engineered baseline using Google's Gemini Flash 2.0 (95.6% execution, 89.4% semantic accuracy). These results demonstrate a practical path toward high-precision, low-latency text-to-SQL applications using domain-specialized, self-hosted language models in large-scale production environments.

We present a practical, reproducible framework for identifying undervalued football players grounded in objective mispricing. Instead of relying on subjective expert labels, we estimate an expected market value from structured data (historical market dynamics, biographical and contract features, transfer history) and compare it to the observed valuation to define mispricing. We then assess whether news-derived Natural Language Processing (NLP) features (i.e., sentiment statistics and semantic embeddings from football articles) complement market signals for shortlisting undervalued players. Using a chronological (leakage-aware) evaluation, gradient-boosted regression explains a large share of the variance in log-transformed market value. For undervaluation shortlisting, ROC-AUC-based ablations show that market dynamics are the primary signal, while NLP features provide consistent, secondary gains that improve robustness and interpretability. SHAP analyses suggest the dominance of market trends and age, with news-derived volatility cues amplifying signals in high-uncertainty regimes. The proposed pipeline is designed for decision support in scouting workflows, emphasizing ranking/shortlisting over hard classification thresholds, and includes a concise reproducibility and ethics statement.

Machine learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in sports prediction in the past years, often treating sports prediction as a classification task within the field. This paper introduces new perspectives for analyzing sports data to predict outcomes more accurately. We leverage rankings to generate team rankings for the 2024 dataset using Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), a new paradigm for combining multiple scoring systems through the rank-score characteristic (RSC) function and cognitive diversity (CD). Our result based on rank combination with respect to team ranking has an accuracy rate of $74.60\%$, which is higher than the best of the ten popular public ranking systems ($73.02\%$). This exhibits the efficacy of CFA in enhancing the precision of sports prediction through different lens.

Sports have long attracted broad attention as they push the limits of human physical and cognitive capabilities. Amid growing interest in spatial intelligence for vision-language models (VLMs), sports provide a natural testbed for understanding high-intensity human motion and dynamic object interactions. To this end, we present CourtSI, the first large-scale spatial intelligence dataset tailored to sports scenarios. CourtSI contains over 1M QA pairs, organized under a holistic taxonomy that systematically covers spatial counting, distance measurement, localization, and relational reasoning, across representative net sports including badminton, tennis, and table tennis. Leveraging well-defined court geometry as metric anchors, we develop a semi-automatic data engine to reconstruct sports scenes, enabling scalable curation of CourtSI. In addition, we introduce CourtSI-Bench, a high-quality evaluation benchmark comprising 3,686 QA pairs with rigorous human verification. We evaluate 25 proprietary and open-source VLMs on CourtSI-Bench, revealing a remaining human-AI performance gap and limited generalization from existing spatial intelligence benchmarks. These findings indicate that sports scenarios expose limitations in spatial intelligence capabilities captured by existing benchmarks. Further, fine-tuning Qwen3-VL-8B on CourtSI improves accuracy on CourtSI-Bench by 23.5 percentage points. The adapted model also generalizes effectively to CourtSI-Ext, an evaluation set built on a similar but unseen sport, and demonstrates enhanced spatial-aware commentary generation. Together, these findings demonstrate that CourtSI provides a scalable pathway toward advancing spatial intelligence of VLMs in sports.

Market valuations for professional athletes is a difficult problem, given the amount of variability in performance and location from year to year. In the National Basketball Association (NBA), a straightforward way to address this problem is to build a tabular data set and use supervised machine learning to predict a player's salary based on the player's performance in the previous year. For younger players, whose contracts are mostly built on draft position, this approach works well, however it can fail for veterans or those whose salaries are on the high tail of the distribution. In this paper, we show that building a knowledge graph with on and off court data, embedding that graph in a vector space, and including that vector in the tabular data allows the supervised learning to better understand the landscape of factors that affect salary. We compare several graph embedding algorithms and show that such a process is vital to NBA salary prediction.

How much can a pitcher's body reveal about the upcoming pitch? We study this question at scale by classifying eight pitch types from monocular 3D pose sequences, without access to ball-flight data. Our pipeline chains a diffusion-based 3D pose backbone with automatic pitching-event detection, groundtruth-validated biomechanical feature extraction, and gradient-boosted classification over 229 kinematic features. Evaluated on 119,561 professional pitches, the largest such benchmark to date, we achieve 80.4% accuracy using body kinematics alone. A systematic importance analysis reveals that upper-body mechanics contribute 64.9% of the predictive signal versus 35.1% for the lower body, with wrist position (14.8%) and trunk lateral tilt emerging as the most informative joint group and biomechanical feature, respectively. We further show that grip-defined variants (four-seam vs.\ two-seam fastball) are not separable from pose, establishing an empirical ceiling near 80% and delineating where kinematic information ends and ball-flight information begins.

Traditional approaches to measuring visual exploratory behavior in soccer rely on counting visual exploratory actions (VEAs) based on rapid head movements exceeding 125°/s, but this method suffer from player position bias (i.e., a focus on central midfielders), annotation challenges, binary measurement constraints (i.e., a player is scanning, or not), lack the power to predict relevant short-term in-game future success, and are incompatible with fundamental soccer analytics models such as pitch control. This research introduces a novel formulaic continuous stochastic vision layer to quantify players' visual perception from pose-enhanced spatiotemporal tracking. Our probabilistic field-of-view and occlusion models incorporate head and shoulder rotation angles to create speed-dependent vision maps for individual players in a two-dimensional top-down plane. We combine these vision maps with pitch control and pitch value surfaces to analyze the awaiting phase (when a player is awaiting the ball to arrive after a pass for a teammate) and their subsequent on-ball phase. We demonstrate that aggregated visual metrics - such as the percentage of defended area observed while awaiting a pass - are predictive of controlled pitch value gained at the end of dribbling actions using 32 games of synchronized pose-enhanced tracking data and on-ball event data from the 2024 Copa America. This methodology works regardless of player position, eliminates manual annotation requirements, and provides continuous measurements that seamlessly integrate into existing soccer analytics frameworks. To further support the integration with existing soccer analytics frameworks we open-source the tools required to make these calculations.

Soccer analytics draws on two kinds of information: spatio-temporal data describing where players and the ball are, and event data describing what they do. Public datasets offer them apart, or together only on broadcast footage that leaves players outside the frame unobserved. SoccerTrack v2 combines continuous full-pitch video, long player trajectories and actor-linked events in one resource: ten university-level matches, 932 minutes of fixed-camera 4K panoramic video, annotated per frame with metric pitch coordinates, jersey numbers and persistent identities, roles and team sides for all players, and with ball action events in twelve classes, linked to the acting players through the same identifiers used in the trajectories. We fix a match-level split and report baselines for two tasks. For game state reconstruction, we run a full pipeline over all twenty halves and find that GS-HOTA scores degrade as sequence length increases. For ball action spotting, we train a model on the player trajectories, with and without the ball track. The data, the split and the evaluation tooling are released so that both tasks can be developed and compared at match length on the same footage.