Stochastic

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly successful, their analyses are largely estimator-specific and expectation-based, obscuring the structural tradeoffs that determine reliability. In this paper, we develop a unified framework for stochastic variance-reduced estimation based on a recursion with three components: memory retention, reset probability, and a correction term for iterate movement. This framework recovers several classical estimators, motivates new second-order variants, and yields a bias-variance decomposition of estimation error. Our main result is a unified high-probability bound proved using a new dimension-free vector-valued Freedman inequality, valid for smooth normed spaces involving random sums of vector martingales. The result applies in both Euclidean and non-Euclidean settings, including the analysis of mirror-descent-based methods in Banach spaces. As applications, we obtain high-probability oracle complexities for unconstrained optimization with mirror descent, establishing the logarithmic dependence on the confidence level. We also derive the first $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ oracle-complexity bounds for stochastic optimization with expectation constraints, improving upon the existing $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\varepsilon^{-4})$ complexity by leveraging variance-reduced estimation for the first time in this setting.

Stochastic compositional optimization minimizes objectives of the form $\min_{\bm{x} \in \mathcal{X}} F(\bm{f}(\bm{x}), \bm{x})$, where $\bm{f}$ is accessible only through noisy stochastic queries. Existing methods for this problem assume that the outer function $F$ is continuously differentiable, which excludes many practically important applications such as robust max-of-losses, Conditional Value-at-Risk, and norm regularizers. We propose the Hybrid Momentum Stochastic Frank--Wolfe algorithm, which drops the smoothness assumption on $F$. By combining a momentum-based Jacobian tracker with a Taylor-corrected function tracker, the algorithm feeds an entire stochastic linearization -- rather than a single gradient -- into a generalized linear minimization oracle. We establish an $\mathcal{O}(K^{-1/4})$ convergence rate in the generalized Frank--Wolfe gap for non-convex objectives with $L_F$-Lipschitz outer functions, matching the optimal complexity for projection-free single-sample stochastic methods under expected smoothness. The analysis extends to heavy-tailed noise oracles with bounded $r$-th moments for $r \in (1, 2]$ and recovers the deterministic rates of Vladarean et al (2023) as the noise vanishes.

The multi-path Traveling Salesman Problem with stochastic travel costs arises in hybrid vehicle routing applications designed for Smart City and City Logistics, where multiple paths exist between each pair of locations. Travel times along these paths are typically affected by real-time traffic conditions and therefore modeled as stochastic. The objective of the problem is to determine a Hamiltonian tour that minimizes the expected total travel cost under uncertainty. In this work, we adopt a two-stage stochastic programming formulation. In the first stage, a predefined route specifying the sequence of locations to be visited is determined, while taking into consideration a second-stage recourse problem that selects the optimal path from the feasible set of alternative paths for each pair of locations, once real-time traffic conditions are realized. To reduce the computational burden imposed by the large number of scenarios required to capture travel time uncertainty, the innovation of this work is the integration of neural network-based surrogate models to approximate the expected value of the second-stage recourse problem. Different architectures and training strategies for the neural networks are proposed and analyzed, with performance evaluated in terms of computation time, solution quality, and generalization capability. Preliminary findings demonstrate the enhanced scalability and practical applicability of the approach for complex vehicle routing problems under uncertainty.

"Oh-Oh, yes, I'm the great pretender. Pretending that I'm doing well. My need is such, I pretend too much..." summarizes the state in the area of jailbreak creation and evaluation. You find this method to generate adversarial attacks proposed by a reputable institution (e.g., BoN from Anthropic or Crescendo from Microsoft Research). However, this method does not deliver on the promise claimed in the paper despite having top ASR scores against industry-grade LLMs. You successfully generate the jailbreak prompts against your target (open) model. However, the generated jailbreak prompt works against the target model with a 50% consecutive success rate (5 out of 10 attempts) despite having an 80% ASR (on paper) on the latest closed-source model (with a guardrail system)! This observation leads us to think. First, Attack Success Rate (ASR), the primary metric for LLM jailbreak benchmarking, is not a stable quantity. Second, published ASR numbers are therefore systematically inflated and incomparable across papers. Therefore, we wonder "Why a successful jailbreak prompt does not perform consistently well against a target model on which the prompts have been optimized?". To answer this question, we study the impact of stochasticity not only during attack evaluation but also during attack generation. Our evaluation includes several jailbreak attacks, models (different sizes and providers), and judges. In addition, we propose a new metric and two new frameworks (CAS-eval and CAS-gen). Our evaluation framework, CAS-eval, shows that an attack can have an ASR drop of up to 30 percentage points when a jailbreak prompt needs to succeed on more than one attempt. Thankfully, our attack generation framework (CAS-gen) improves previous jailbreak methods and helps them recover this loss of 30 percentage points!

We study a sequential resource allocation problem motivated by adaptive network recruitment, in which a limited budget of identical resources must be allocated over multiple rounds to individuals with stochastic referral capacity. Successful referrals endogenously generate future decision opportunities while allocating additional resources to an individual exhibits diminishing returns. We first show that the single-round allocation problem admits an exact greedy solution based on marginal survival probabilities. In the multi-round setting, the resulting Bellman recursion is intractable due to the stochastic, high-dimensional evolution of the frontier. To address this, we introduce a population-level surrogate value function that depends only on the remaining budget and frontier size. This surrogate enables an exact dynamic program via truncated probability generating functions, yielding a planning algorithm with polynomial complexity in the total budget. We further analyze robustness under model misspecification, proving a multi-round error bound that decomposes into a tight single-round frontier error and a population-level transition error. Finally, we evaluate our method on real-world inspired recruitment scenarios.

We study stochastic minimum-cost reach-avoid reinforcement learning, where an agent must satisfy a reach-avoid specification with probability at least $p$ while minimizing expected cumulative costs in stochastic environments. Existing safe and constrained reinforcement learning methods typically fail to jointly enforce probabilistic reach-avoid constraints and optimize cost in the learning setting in stochastic environments. To address this challenge, we introduce reach-avoid probability certificates (RAPCs), which identify states from which stochastic reach-avoid constraints are satisfiable. Building on RAPCs, we develop a contraction-based Bellman formulation that serves as a principled surrogate for integrating reach-avoid considerations into reinforcement learning, enabling cost optimization under probabilistic constraints. We establish almost sure convergence of the proposed algorithms to locally optimal policies with respect to the resulting objective. Experiments in the MuJoCo simulator demonstrate improved cost performance and consistently higher reach-avoid satisfaction rates.

Modern generative models can be understood as probability transport from a simple base distribution to a target data distribution. Deterministic transport models offer tractable velocity-field parameterizations, whereas stochastic generative models capture richer density evolution through drift and diffusion. Yet when stochastic dynamics are described through deterministic velocity fields, the effects of drift and diffusion are often compressed into a single effective field, obscuring the distinct roles of deterministic evolution and stochastic fluctuation. In this work, we show that the deterministic field $b_t$ of a stochastic generative process admits a natural transport--osmotic decomposition that separates deterministic transport from stochastic, diffusion-induced effects: $b_t = u_t + d_t$, where $u_t$ governs marginal probability transport and $d_t$ captures an osmotic effect induced by diffusion and determined by the marginal score. Based on this decomposition, we propose Bridge Matching, a flow-based framework for learning decomposed generative dynamics through both marginal and conditional formulations. In generative modeling experiments, we recombine the learned components as $b_t = u_t + λ_d d_t$, showing that the proposed decomposition enables interpretable and controllable sampling by adjusting the osmotic contribution in probability transport.

Discrete flow matching generates text by iteratively transforming noise tokens into coherent language, but may require hundreds of forward passes. Distillation uses the multi-step trajectory to train a student to reproduce the process in a few steps. When the student underperforms, the usual explanation is insufficient capacity. We argue the opposite: the trajectory is the bottleneck, not the student. Each training trajectory is built through a chain of blind stochastic jumps with no evaluation of sequence quality; a single bad decision at an early midpoint propagates through subsequent steps, yet the student must imitate the result. Trajectory-Shaped Discrete Flow Matching (TS-DFM) replaces these blind jumps with guided navigation: a lightweight energy compass evaluates candidate continuations at each midpoint, selecting the most coherent. All shaping is training-only; inference cost is unchanged. On 170M-parameter language modeling, the shaped student at 8 steps achieves 32% lower perplexity than the 1,024-step teacher while being 128x faster, with gains consistent across source distributions and three evaluators of increasing scale. TS-DFM achieves the best perplexity of any discrete-generation baseline we compare against, including methods trained on 6x more data or using 5x larger models.

Federated Learning (FL) enables decentralised model training across distributed clients without requiring data centralisation. However, the generalisation performance of the global model is usually degraded by data heterogeneity across clients, particularly under limited data availability and class imbalance. To address this challenge, we propose FedQuad, a novel method that explicitly enforces minimising intra-class representations while enabling inter-class splits across clients. By jointly minimising distances between positive pairs and maximising distances between negative pairs, the proposed approach mitigates representation misalignment introduced during model aggregation. We evaluate our method on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, and Tiny-ImageNet under diverse non-IID settings and varying numbers of clients, demonstrating consistent improvements over existing baselines. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive analysis of metric learning-based approaches in both centralised and federated environments, highlighting their effectiveness in alleviating representation collapse under heterogeneous data distributions.

Differentiable planning enables gradient-based optimization of decision-making problems by leveraging differentiable models of system dynamics. However, in highly nonlinear and hybrid discrete-continuous domains, the resulting optimization landscapes are often ill-conditioned, with flat regions and sharp transitions that hinder effective optimization. We propose Model-Driven Policy Optimization (MDPO), a framework that introduces stochastic exploration into differentiable planning by injecting noise into the action space during optimization. Leveraging access to the model, MDPO further adapts the noise magnitude based on gradient-derived sensitivity of the trajectory objective, yielding a time-dependent exploration profile. This enables improved exploration of the objective landscape and helps escape poor local optima via dynamic allocation of exploration across timesteps and iterations. Experiments on benchmark domains demonstrate that MDPO consistently outperforms deterministic differentiable planning, including both the noise-free variant of our method and available state-of-the-art implementations, as well as model-free baselines such as PPO, significantly improving solution quality across challenging nonlinear and hybrid settings. We further analyze the evolution of the adaptive noise magnitude across both time steps and optimization iterations, providing insight into how exploration is allocated during learning.

The design of biological systems is hindered by uncertainty arising from both intrinsic stochasticity of biomolecular reactions and variability across laboratory or experimental conditions. In this work, we present a sequential framework to optimize genetic circuits under both forms of uncertainty. By employing simulator models based on differential equations or Markov jump processes alongside a reinforcement learning (RL) policy-based approach, our method suggests experiments that adapt to unknown laboratory conditions while accounting for inherent stochasticity. While previous Bayesian methods address uncertainty through iterative experiment-inference-optimization cycles, they typically require computationally expensive inference and optimization steps after each experimental round, leading to delays. To overcome this bottleneck, we propose an amortized approach trained up-front across a distribution of possible uncertain parameters. This strategy sidesteps the need for explicit parameter inference during the design cycle, enabling immediate, observation-based adaptation. We demonstrate our framework on models for heterologous gene expression and a repressilator circuit, showing that it efficiently handles both molecular noise and cross-laboratory variability.

The dual norm characterisation of weak solutions of second-order linear elliptic partial differential equations is mathematically natural but computationally intractable: evaluating the $H^{-1}$ norm of the residual requires a supremum over an infinite-dimensional test space. We prove that the $H^{-1}$ norm of any functional is equivalent to its expected squared evaluation against a random test function whose probability distribution depends only on the domain. Crucially, realisations of this random test function have negative Sobolev regularity for $d \geq 2$, yet this roughness is not an obstacle: averaging over the distribution exactly recovers the correct weak topology, independently of the differential operator, and no supremum evaluation is necessary. This equivalence introduces the notion of stochastically weak solutions, which coincide with classical weak solutions, and motivates stochastic variational physics-informed neural networks (SV-PINNs): neural networks trained by minimising an empirical approximation of the stochastic norm of the PDE residual. Although instantiated here with neural networks, the underlying principle is independent of the trial space and suggests a broader paradigm for numerical methods based on stochastic rather than deterministic test spaces. The framework extends naturally to higher-order elliptic, parabolic and hyperbolic equations and to abstract operator equations on Hilbert spaces. As a proof of concept, we present numerical experiments on eight challenging second-order linear elliptic problems spanning high-frequency and multi-scale solutions, indefinite operators, variable coefficients, and non-standard domains, in which SV-PINNs consistently and significantly outperform standard PINNs, recovering solutions to within one percent relative error in hundreds of L-BFGS steps.

Autoregressive decoding becomes bandwidth-limited at long contexts, as generating each token requires reading all $n_k$ key and value vectors from KV cache. We present Stochastic Additive No-mulT Attention (SANTA), a method that sparsifies value-cache access by sampling $S \ll n_k$ indices from the post-softmax distribution and aggregates only those value rows. This yields an unbiased estimator of the post-softmax value aggregation while replacing value-stage multiply-accumulates with gather-and-add. We introduce stratified and systematic sampling to design variance-reduced, GPU-friendly variants. Evaluated on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct at 32k-token contexts, S$^2$ANTA matches baseline accuracy while achieving up to $1.5\times$ decode-step attention-kernel speedup over FlashInfer and FlashDecoding on an NVIDIA RTX 6000 Ada. In batched long-context generation, these kernel gains translate to up to $1.25\times$ end-to-end decode-latency speedup. Finally, we propose Bernoulli $qK^\mathsf{T}$ sampling as a complementary technique to sparsify the score stage, reducing key-feature access through stochastic ternary queries. Both methods are complementary to upstream quantization, low-rank projection, KV-cache compression, and KV-cache selection methods. Together, they point toward sparse, multiplier-free, and energy-efficient inference. We open-source our kernels at: https://github.com/OPUSLab/SANTA.git

We study linear dueling bandits in volatile environments characterized by the simultaneous presence of post-serving contexts, delayed feedback, and adversarial corruption. Feedback is subject to unknown stochastic or adversarial delays and a cumulative corruption budget $\mathcal{C}$. To address these challenges, we propose e RCDP-UCB, which integrates a learned approximator that predicts post-serving contexts from pre-serving information. It further employs an adaptive weighting strategy that clips feature vectors to mitigate the impact of corrupted and delayed observations simultaneously. Under standard regularity conditions and a parametric post-serving mapping, we rigorously establish that our algorithm is delay-regime-agnostic, achieving a regret upper bound of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(d(\sqrt{T} + \mathcal{C} + \mathcal{D}))$, where $d$ is the total feature dimension and $\mathcal{D}$ encapsulates the delay complexity. Crucially, our analysis reveals an additive cost structure between corruption and delay, avoiding the multiplicative degradation typical of prior works. We further establish lower bounds that nearly match our upper bounds up to a $\sqrt{d}$ factor for adversarial delays in the absence of post-serving contexts. Code is available at https://github.com/youngmin0oh/rcdp-public.

Machine unlearning aims to unlearn data points from a learned model, offering a principled way to process data-deletion requests and mitigate privacy risks without full retraining. Prior work has mainly studied unsupervised / supervised machine unlearning, leaving unlearning for sequential decision-making systems far less understood. We initiate the first study of a foundational sequential decision-making problem: offline stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB). We formalize the privacy constraint for offline MAB and measure utility by the post-unlearning decision quality. We conduct a systematic study of both single- and multi-source unlearning scenarios under two data-generation models, the fixed-sample model and the distribution model. For these settings, our algorithmic design is built on two canonical base algorithms: Gaussian mechanism and rollback, and we propose adaptive algorithms that switch between them according to the data regime and privacy constraint. We further introduce a mixing procedure that elucidates the rationale behind these baselines. We provide performance guarantees across the above settings and establish lower bounds under both dataset models. Experiments validate the predicted tradeoffs and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have garnered increasing attention as one of bio-inspired models due to their great potential in neuromorphic computing and sparse computation. Many practical algorithms and techniques have been developed; however, theoretical understandings of the generalization, that is, the extent to which SNNs perform well on unseen data, are far from clear. Recent advances disclosed an excitation-dependent and architecture-related generalization bound such that the Rademacher complexity of SNNs with stochastic firing can be upper bounded by an exponential function relative to the excitation probability and the architecture depth. In this paper, we theoretically investigate the generalization bounds of SNNs with several integration-and-fire schemes via Rademacher complexity. We recognize that the empirical Rademacher complexity of SNNs is close to the SNN configurations, which is exponential to the network depth and the maximum time duration of received spike sequences, superlinear and subquadratic to the network width, polynomial to the parameter norm, inverse-linear to the number of training samples, and independent of the computations within spiking neurons, achieving a more precise rate than conventional studies. Our theoretical results may support the scope of SNN theories and shed some insight into the development of SNNs.

Software engineering (SE) organizations operate in a knowledge-intensive domain where critical assets -- architectural expertise, design rationale, and system intuition -- are overwhelmingly tacit and volatile. The departure of key contributors or the decay of undocumented decisions can severely impair project velocity and software quality. While conventional SE risk management optimized for schedule and budget is common, the intangible knowledge risks that determine project success remain under-represented. The goal of this research work is to propose and evaluate the Knowledge Lever Risk Management (KLRM) Framework, designed specifically for the software development lifecycle. The primary objectives are to: (1) recast intangible knowledge assets as active mechanisms for risk mitigation (Knowledge Levers); (2) integrate these levers into a structured four-phase architecture (Audit, Alignment, Activation, Assurance); and (3) provide a formal stochastic model to quantify the impact of lever activation on project knowledge capital. We detail the application of these levers through software-specific practices such as pair programming, architectural decision records (ADRs), and LLM-assisted development. Stochastic Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that full lever activation increases expected knowledge capital by 63.8% and virtually eliminates knowledge crisis probability. Our research shows that knowledge lever activation improves alignment across the project management iron triangle (scope, time, cost) by reducing rework and rediscovery costs.

Standard physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) struggle to simulate highly oscillatory Helmholtz solutions in heterogeneous media because pointwise minimization of second-order PDE residuals is computationally expensive, biased toward smooth solutions, and requires artificial absorbing boundary layers to restrict the solution. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a Green-Integral (GI) neural solver for the acoustic Helmholtz equation. It departs from the PDE-residual-based formulation by enforcing wave physics through an integral representation that imposes a nonlocal constraint. Oscillatory behavior and outgoing radiation are encoded directly through the integral kernel, eliminating second-order spatial derivatives and enforcing physical solutions without additional boundary layers. Theoretically, optimizing this GI loss via a neural network acts as a spectrally tuned preconditioned iteration, enabling convergence in heterogeneous media where the classical Born series diverges. By exploiting FFT-based convolution to accelerate the GI loss evaluation, our approach substantially reduces GPU memory usage and training time. However, this efficiency relies on a fixed regular grid, which can limit local resolution. To improve local accuracy in strong scattering regions, we also propose a hybrid GI+PDE loss, enforcing a lightweight Helmholtz residual at a small number of nonuniformly sampled collocation points. We evaluate our method on seismic benchmark models characterized by structural contrasts and subwavelength heterogeneity at frequencies up to 20Hz. GI-based training consistently outperforms PDE-based PINNs, reducing computational cost by over a factor of ten. In models with localized scattering, the hybrid loss yields the most accurate reconstructions, providing a stable, efficient, and physically grounded alternative.

When training neural networks with full-batch gradient descent (GD) and step size $η$, the largest eigenvalue of the Hessian -- the sharpness $S(\boldsymbolθ)$ -- rises to $2/η$ and hovers there, a phenomenon termed the Edge of Stability (EoS). \citet{damian2023selfstab} showed that this behavior is explained by a self-stabilization mechanism driven by third-order structure of the loss, and that GD implicitly follows projected gradient descent (PGD) on the constraint $S(\boldsymbolθ)\leq 2/η$. For mini-batch stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the sharpness stabilizes below $2/η$, with the gap widening as the batch size decreases; yet no theoretical explanation exists for this suppression. We introduce stochastic self-stabilization, extending the self-stabilization framework to SGD. Our key insight is that gradient noise injects variance into the oscillatory dynamics along the top Hessian eigenvector, strengthening the cubic sharpness-reducing force and shifting the equilibrium below $2/η$. Following the approach of \citet{damian2023selfstab}, we define stochastic predicted dynamics relative to a moving projected gradient descent trajectory and prove a stochastic coupling theorem that bounds the deviation of SGD from these predictions. We derive a closed-form equilibrium sharpness gap: $ΔS = ηβσ_{\boldsymbol{u}}^{2}/(4α)$, where $α$ is the progressive sharpening rate, $β$ is the self-stabilization strength, and $σ_{ \boldsymbol{u}}^{2}$ is the gradient noise variance projected onto the top eigenvector. This formula predicts that smaller batch sizes yield flatter solutions and recovers GD when the batch equals the full dataset.

Self-consistency boosts inference-time performance by sampling multiple reasoning traces in parallel and voting. However, in constrained domains like math and code, this strategy is compute-inefficient because it samples with replacement, repeatedly revisiting the same high-probability prefixes and duplicate completions. We propose Distinct Leaf Enumeration (DLE), a deterministic decoding method that treats truncated sampling as traversal of a pruned decoding tree and systematically enumerates distinct leaves instead of sampling with replacement. This strategy improves inference efficiency in two ways. Algorithmically, it increases coverage of the truncated search space under a fixed budget by exploring previously unvisited high-probability branches. Systemically, it reuses shared prefixes and reduces redundant token generation. Empirically, DLE explores higher-quality reasoning traces than stochastic self-consistency, yielding better performance on math, coding, and general reasoning tasks.

We study the community detection problem in the non-uniform hypergraph stochastic block model (HSBM), where hyperedges of varying sizes coexist. This setting captures higher-order and multi-view interactions and raises a fundamental question: can multiple uniform hypergraph layers below the detection threshold be combined to enable weak recovery? We answer this question by establishing a Kesten--Stigum-type bound for weak recovery in a general class of non-uniform HSBMs with $r$ blocks, generated according to multiple symmetric probability tensors. In the case $r=2$, we show that weak recovery is possible whenever the sum of the signal-to-noise ratios across all uniform hypergraph layers exceeds one, thereby confirming the positive part of a conjecture in (Chodrow et al., 2023). Moreover, we provide a polynomial-time spectral algorithm that achieves this threshold via an optimally weighted non-backtracking operator. For the unweighted non-backtracking matrix, our spectral method attains a different algorithmic threshold, also conjectured in (Chodrow et al., 2023). Our approach develops a spectral theory for weighted non-backtracking operators on non-uniform hypergraphs, including a precise characterization of outlier eigenvalues and eigenvector overlaps. We introduce a novel Ihara--Bass formula tailored to weighted non-uniform hypergraphs, which yields an efficient low-dimensional representation and leads to a provable spectral reconstruction algorithm. Taken together, these results provide a principled and computationally efficient approach to clustering in non-uniform hypergraphs, and highlight the role of optimal weighting in aggregating heterogeneous higher-order interactions.

Computer-use agents have rapidly improved on real-world tasks such as web navigation, desktop automation, and software interaction, in some cases surpassing human performance. Yet even when the task and model are unchanged, an agent that succeeds once may fail on a repeated execution of the same task. This raises a fundamental question: if an agent can succeed at a task once, what prevents it from doing so reliably? In this work, we study the sources of unreliability in computer-use agents through three factors: stochasticity during execution, ambiguity in task specification, and variability in agent behavior. We analyze these factors on OSWorld using repeated executions of the same task together with paired statistical tests that capture task-level changes across settings. Our analysis shows that reliability depends on both how tasks are specified and how agent behavior varies across executions. These findings suggest the need to evaluate agents under repeated execution, to allow agents to resolve task ambiguity through interaction, and to favor strategies that remain stable across runs.

Traffic forecasting is a challenging spatio-temporal modeling task and a critical component of urban transportation management. Current studies mainly focus on deterministic predictions, with limited considerations on the uncertainty and stochasticity in traffic dynamics. Therefore, this paper proposes an elegant yet universal approach that transforms existing models into probabilistic predictors by replacing only the final output layer with a novel Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) layer. The modified model requires no changes to the training pipeline and can be trained using only the Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) loss, without any auxiliary or regularization terms. Experiments on multiple traffic datasets show that our approach generalizes from classic to modern model architectures while preserving deterministic performance. Furthermore, we propose a systematic evaluation procedure based on cumulative distributions and confidence intervals, and demonstrate that our approach is considerably more accurate and informative than unimodal or deterministic baselines. Finally, a more detailed study on a real-world dense urban traffic network is presented to examine the impact of data quality on uncertainty quantification and to show the robustness of our approach under imperfect data conditions. Code available at https://github.com/Weijiang-Xiong/OpenSkyTraffic

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) has increased concerns about their robustness. Vulnerabilities in perturbations of tokenisation of the input indicate that models trained with a deterministic canonical tokenisation can be brittle to adversarial attacks. Recent studies suggest that stochastic tokenisation can deliver internal representations that are less sensitive to perturbations. In this paper, we analyse how stochastic tokenisations affect robustness to adversarial attacks and random perturbations. We systematically study this over a range of learning regimes (pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and in-context learning), data sets, and model architectures. We show that pre-training and fine-tuning with uniformly sampled stochastic tokenisations improve robustness to random and adversarial perturbations. Evaluating on uniformly sampled non-canonical tokenisations reduces the accuracy of a canonically trained Llama-1b model by 29.8%. We find that training with stochastic tokenisation preserves accuracy without increasing inference cost.

Sign-based optimization algorithms, such as SignSGD, have garnered significant attention for their remarkable performance in distributed learning and training large foundation models. Despite their empirical superiority, SignSGD is known to diverge on non-smooth objectives, which are ubiquitous in modern machine learning due to ReLUs, max-pools, and mixture-of-experts. To overcome this fundamental limitation, we propose \textbf{StoSignSGD}, an algorithm that injects structural stochasticity into the sign operator while maintaining an unbiased update step. In the regime of (online) convex optimization, our theoretical analysis shows that StoSignSGD rigorously resolves the non-convergence issues of SignSGD, achieving a sharp convergence rate matching the lower bound. For the more challenging non-convex non-smooth optimization, we introduce generalized stationary measures that encompass prior definitions, proving that StoSignSGD improves upon the best-known complexity bounds by dimensional factors. Empirically, StoSignSGD exhibits robust stability and superior efficiency across diverse large language model (LLM) training regimes. Notably, in low-precision FP8 pretraining -- a setting where AdamW fails catastrophically -- StoSignSGD remains highly stable and yields a remarkable 1.44$\times$ to 2.14$\times$ speedup relative to established baselines. Furthermore, when fine-tuning 7B LLMs on mathematical reasoning tasks, StoSignSGD delivers substantial performance gains over both AdamW and SignSGD. Finally, to dissect the mechanisms driving its success, we develop a sign conversion framework capable of transforming any general optimizer into its unbiased, sign-based counterpart. Utilizing this framework, we deconstruct the core components of StoSignSGD and present a comprehensive ablation study to empirically validate our algorithmic design choices.

We study bandit best-arm identification with arbitrary and potentially adversarial rewards. A simple random uniform learner obtains the optimal rate of error in the adversarial scenario. However, this type of strategy is suboptimal when the rewards are sampled stochastically. Therefore, we ask: Can we design a learner that performs optimally in both the stochastic and adversarial problems while not being aware of the nature of the rewards? First, we show that designing such a learner is impossible in general. In particular, to be robust to adversarial rewards, we can only guarantee optimal rates of error on a subset of the stochastic problems. We give a lower bound that characterizes the optimal rate in stochastic problems if the strategy is constrained to be robust to adversarial rewards. Finally, we design a simple parameter-free algorithm and show that its probability of error matches (up to log factors) the lower bound in stochastic problems, and it is also robust to adversarial ones.

This paper develops new variance-reduction techniques for the forward-reflected-backward splitting (FRBS) method to solve a class of possibly nonmonotone stochastic composite inclusions. Unlike unbiased estimators such as mini-batching, developing stochastic biased variants faces a fundamental technical challenge and has not been utilized before for inclusions and fixed-point problems. We fill this gap by designing a new framework that can handle both unbiased and biased estimators. Our main idea is to construct stochastic variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction and use them to perform iterate updates. First, we propose a class of unbiased variance-reduced estimators and show that increasing mini-batch SGD, loopless-SVRG, and SAGA estimators fall within this class. For these unbiased estimators, we establish a $\mathcal{O}(1/k)$ best-iterate convergence rate for the expected squared residual norm, together with almost-sure convergence of the iterate sequence to a solution. Consequently, we prove that the best oracle complexities for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings are $\mathcal{O}(n^{2/3}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-10/3})$, respectively, when employing loopless-SVRG or SAGA, where $ε$ is a desired accuracy. Second, we introduce a new class of biased variance-reduced estimators for the forward-reflected direction, which includes SARAH, Hybrid SGD, and Hybrid SVRG as special instances. While the convergence rates remain valid for these biased estimators, the resulting oracle complexities are $\mathcal{O}(n^{3/4}ε^{-2})$ and $\mathcal{O}(ε^{-5})$ for the $n$-finite-sum and expectation settings, respectively. Finally, we conduct two numerical experiments on AUC optimization for imbalanced classification and policy evaluation in reinforcement learning.

Generating novel protein sequences that respect a family's statistical constraints typically requires training deep generative models on thousands to millions of examples. Yet most protein families are small: the median Pfam seed alignment contains only 22 sequences, a regime where learned models overfit or collapse. We propose \emph{stochastic attention} (SA), a training-free sampler that treats the modern Hopfield energy over stored sequences as a Boltzmann distribution and draws samples via Langevin dynamics. The score function is the residual of a single softmax attention operation, eliminating the need for a trained score network, pretraining data, or graphics processing units (GPUs). Across eight Pfam families spanning 37 to 420 sequences and 23 to 262 residues, SA generates sequences with low composition divergence, novelty, and structural plausibility supported by ESMFold and AlphaFold2. Compared with profile hidden Markov models (HMMs), EvoDiff, and the multiple sequence alignment (MSA) Transformer, SA is the only tested method to simultaneously achieve low composition divergence, genuine novelty, and sequence identity within each family's nearest-neighbor identity range; the others drift outside this range or produce near-copies. The critical inverse temperature is predicted from principal component analysis (PCA) dimensionality alone, enabling fully automatic operation from a seed alignment. In two domains with deep mutational scanning data, SA-generated substitutions are enriched for experimentally tolerated mutations beyond a position-matched null, and an independent language model (ESM2-650M) scores them within the natural range. Stochastic attention thus opens training-free sequence generation to the long tail of protein families too small for deep learning.

To maximize hardware utilization, modern machine learning systems typically employ large constant or manually tuned batch size schedules, relying on heuristics that are brittle and costly to tune. Existing adaptive strategies based on gradient noise scale (GNS) offer a principled alternative. However, their assumption of SGD's Euclidean geometry creates a fundamental mismatch with popular optimizers based on generalized norms, such as signSGD / Signum ($\ell_\infty$) and stochastic spectral descent (specSGD) / Muon ($\mathcal{S}_\infty$). In this work, we derive gradient noise scales for signSGD and specSGD that naturally emerge from the geometry of their respective dual norms. To practically estimate these non-Euclidean metrics, we propose an efficient variance estimation procedure that leverages the local mini-batch gradients on different ranks in distributed data-parallel systems. Our experiments demonstrate that adaptive batch size strategies using non-Euclidean GNS enable us to match the validation loss of constant-batch baselines while reducing training steps by up to 66% for Signum and Muon on a 160 million parameter Llama model.

We study \emph{online episodic Constrained Markov Decision Processes} (CMDPs) under both stochastic and adversarial constraints. We provide a novel algorithm whose guarantees greatly improve those of the state-of-the-art best-of-both-worlds algorithm introduced by Stradi et al. (2025). In the stochastic regime, \emph{i.e.}, when the constraints are sampled from fixed but unknown distributions, our method achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret and constraint violation without relying on Slater's condition, thereby handling settings where no strictly feasible solution exists. Moreover, we provide guarantees on the stronger notion of \emph{positive} constraint violation, which does not allow to recover from large violation in the early episodes by playing strictly safe policies. In the adversarial regime, \emph{i.e.}, when the constraints may change arbitrarily between episodes, our algorithm ensures sublinear constraint violation without Slater's condition, and achieves sublinear $α$-regret with respect to the \emph{unconstrained} optimum, where $α$ is a suitably defined multiplicative approximation factor. We further validate our results through synthetic experiments, showing the practical effectiveness of our algorithm.

We propose a latent score-based generative AI framework for learning stochastic, non-local closure models and constitutive laws in nonlinear dynamical systems of computational mechanics. This work addresses a key challenge of modeling complex multiscale dynamical systems without a clear scale separation, for which numerically resolving all scales is prohibitively expensive, e.g., for engineering turbulent flows. While classical closure modeling methods leverage domain knowledge to approximate subgrid-scale phenomena, their deterministic and local assumptions can be too restrictive in regimes lacking a clear scale separation. Recent developments of diffusion-based stochastic models have shown promise in the context of closure modeling, but their prohibitive computational inference cost limits practical applications in many real-world settings. This work addresses this limitation by jointly training convolutional autoencoders with conditional diffusion models in latent space, significantly reducing the dimensionality of the sampling process while preserving essential physical characteristics. Numerical results demonstrate that the joint training approach helps discover a proper latent space that not only guarantees small reconstruction errors but also ensures good performance of the diffusion model in the latent space. When integrated into numerical simulations, the proposed stochastic modeling framework via latent conditional diffusion models achieves significant computational acceleration while maintaining comparable predictive accuracy to standard diffusion models in physical space.

Sampling in score-based diffusion models can be performed by solving either a reverse-time stochastic differential equation (SDE) parameterized by an arbitrary stochasticity function or a probability flow ODE, corresponding to setting this stochasticity function to zero. In this work, we investigate the effect of this stochasticity on the generation process through the evolution of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergences, obtaining general KL divergence bounds and a novel analysis of the impact of the time-profile of the score error on model performance. For exact score functions, stochasticity has a contractive effect, decreasing KL divergence along the sampling trajectory. For approximate scores, however, a trade-off arises between correcting accumulated errors and amplifying current score errors, meaning stochasticity can either improve or degrade generation performance. Theoretical considerations indicate that the gain from stochasticity depends on the time-localization of the trained model error. We test this in experiments on both toy and benchmark data sets, also comparing the KL divergence evolution with the obtained bounds. We also present a fully analytical example, where all the relevant quantities can be computed, and the optimal stochasticity function can be characterized via an optimal control analysis.

Lower-bound analyses for nonconvex strongly-concave minimax optimization problems have shown that stochastic first-order algorithms require at least $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-4})$ sample complexity to find an $\varepsilon$-stationary point. Some works indicate that this complexity can be improved to $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ when the stochastic loss gradient is Lipschitz continuous. The question of achieving enhanced convergence rates under distinct conditions, remains open. In this work, we address this question for optimization problems that are nonconvex in the minimization variable and strongly concave or Polyak-Lojasiewicz (PL) in the maximization variable. We introduce novel bias-corrected momentum algorithms utilizing efficient Hessian-vector products. We establish convergence conditions and demonstrate a lower iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(\varepsilon^{-3})$ for the proposed algorithms. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through applications to robust logistic regression and robust adaptive cruise control.

Training convolutional neural networks at scale demands substantial memory, largely because intermediate activations must be stored for backpropagation. Existing remedies (checkpointing, invertible architectures, or gradient-approximation methods such as randomized automatic differentiation) either add significant computation, impose architectural constraints, or require non-trivial code changes. We propose XConv, a near-drop-in replacement for standard 2D and 3D convolutional layers that addresses all three: it preserves standard backpropagation, imposes no architectural constraints, and integrates into existing codebases with minimal changes. XConv exploits the algebraic structure of convolutional weight gradients, storing highly compressed projections of the activations rather than the full tensors and approximating the gradients via multi-channel randomized trace estimation. The number of probing vectors sets a memory-accuracy tradeoff and recovers the exact gradient in the limit. We establish convergence guarantees and error bounds for the estimator, showing that its gradient-error variance is comparable to that of stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, XConv matches exact-gradient methods across classification, generative modeling, super-resolution, inpainting, and segmentation, with gaps that narrow as the number of probing vectors grows, while reducing activation memory by a factor of two or more when convolutional activations dominate, and remaining computationally competitive with optimized convolution kernels at larger batch sizes. At half precision the gradient-approximation error falls to the rounding floor, so XConv adds essentially no error beyond that of low-precision arithmetic. The savings matter most where activation memory rather than compute is the binding constraint, such as high-resolution and volumetric training and on-device finetuning.