Surrogate Modeling

Simulations of crystal growth are performed by using Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network surrogate models, trained on a dataset of time sequences computed by numerical integration of Allen-Cahn dynamics including faceting via kinetic anisotropy. Two network architectures are developed to take into account the effects of a variable supersaturation value. The first infers it implicitly by processing an input mini-sequence of a few evolution frames and then returns a consistent continuation of the evolution. The second takes the supersaturation parameter as an explicit input along with a single initial frame and predicts the entire sequence. The two models are systematically tested to establish strengths and weaknesses, comparing the prediction performance for models trained on datasets of different size and, in the first architecture, different lengths of input mini-sequence. The analysis of point-wise and mean absolute errors shows how the explicit parameter conditioning guarantees the best results, reproducing with high-fidelity the ground-truth profiles. Comparable results are achievable by the mini-sequence approach only when using larger training datasets. The trained models show strong conditioning by the supersaturation parameter, consistently reproducing its overall impact on growth rates as well as its local effect on the faceted morphology. Moreover, they are perfectly scalable even on 256 times larger domains and can be successfully extended to more than 10 times longer sequences with limited error accumulation. The analysis highlights the potential and limits of these approaches in view of their general exploitation for crystal growth simulations.

We introduce surrogate functionals: machine-learned energy functionals for orbital-free density functional theory (OF-DFT) which are defined not by universal fidelity to a physical reference, but merely by the requirement that density optimization with a fixed procedure yields the true ground-state density. Helpfully, training surrogate functionals requires only ground-state densities, no energies or gradients away from the ground state. We here propose a gradient-descent-improvement loss that guarantees exponential convergence of the density to the ground state, and combine it with an adaptive sampling scheme that concentrates learning around the optimization trajectories actually visited during inference. On the QM9 and QMugs benchmarks, surrogate functionals achieve density errors competitive with or improving upon the state of the art for fully supervised machine-learned OF-DFT, while eliminating the need for the $O(N^3)$ orthononormalization step required by prior work, yielding improved runtime scaling for larger systems.

Large language models (LLMs), trained on vast datasets, encode extensive real-world knowledge within their parameters, yet their black-box nature obscures the mechanisms and extent of this encoding. Surrogate modeling, which uses simplified models to approximate complex systems, can offer a path toward better interpretability of black-box models. We propose a surrogate modeling framework that quantitatively explains LLM-encoded knowledge. For a specific hypothesis derived from domain knowledge, this framework approximates the latent LLM knowledge space using observable elements (input-output pairs) through extensive prompting across a comprehensive range of simulated scenarios. Through proof-of-concept experiments in medical predictions, we demonstrate our framework's effectiveness in revealing the extent to which LLMs "perceive" each input variable in relation to the output. Particularly, given concerns that LLMs may perpetuate inaccuracies and societal biases embedded in their training data, our experiments using this framework quantitatively revealed both associations that contradict established medical knowledge and the persistence of scientifically refuted racial assumptions within LLM-encoded knowledge. By disclosing these issues, our framework can act as a red-flag indicator to support the safe and reliable application of these models.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) surrogate models provide a computationally efficient alternative to full-physics simulations, but no public datasets currently exist for training and validating models of high-explosive-driven, multi-material shock dynamics. Simulating shock propagation is challenging due to the need for material-specific equations of state (EOS) and models of plasticity, phase change, damage, fluid instabilities, and multi-material interactions. Explosive-driven shocks further require reactive material models to capture detonation physics. To address this gap, we introduce the High-Explosives and Affected Targets (HEAT) dataset, a physics-rich collection of two-dimensional, cylindrically symmetric simulations generated using an Eulerian multi-material shock-propagation code developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory. HEAT consists of two partitions: expanding shock-cylinder (CYL) simulations and Perturbed Layered Interface (PLI) simulations. Each entry includes time series of thermodynamic fields (pressure, density, temperature), kinematic fields (position, velocity), and continuum quantities such as stress. The CYL partition spans a range of materials, including metals (aluminum, copper, depleted uranium, stainless steel, tantalum), a polymer, water, gases (air, nitrogen), and a detonating material. The PLI partition explores varied geometries with fixed materials: copper, aluminum, stainless steel, polymer, and high explosive. HEAT captures key phenomena such as shock propagation, momentum transfer, plastic deformation, and thermal effects, providing a benchmark dataset for AI/ML models of multi-material shock physics.

Accurate machine-learning models for aerodynamic prediction are essential for accelerating shape optimization, yet remain challenging to develop for complex three-dimensional configurations due to the high cost of generating training data. This work introduces a methodology for efficiently constructing accurate surrogate models for design purposes by first pre-training a large-scale model on diverse geometries and then fine-tuning it with a few more detailed task-specific samples. A Transformer-based architecture, AeroTransformer, is developed and tailored for large-scale training to learn aerodynamics. The methodology is evaluated on transonic wings, where the model is pre-trained on SuperWing, a dataset of nearly 30000 samples with broad geometric diversity, and subsequently fine-tuned to handle specific wing shapes perturbed from the Common Research Model. Results show that, with 450 task-specific samples, the proposed methodology achieves 0.36% error on surface-flow prediction, reducing 84.2% compared to training from scratch. The influence of model configurations and training strategies is also systematically studied to provide guidance on effectively training and deploying such models under limited data and computational budgets. To facilitate reuse, we release the datasets and the pre-trained models at https://github.com/tum-pbs/AeroTransformer. An interactive design tool is also built on the pre-trained model and is available online at https://webwing.pbs.cit.tum.de.

Developing neural operators that accurately predict the behavior of systems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) across unseen parameter regimes is crucial for robust generalization in scientific and engineering applications. In practical applications, variations in physical parameters induce distribution shifts between training and prediction regimes, making extrapolation a central challenge. As a result, the way parameters are incorporated into neural operator models plays a key role in their ability to generalize, particularly when state and parameter representations are entangled. In this work, we introduce the Late Fusion Neural Operator, an architecture that disentangles learning state dynamics from parameter effects, improving predictive performance both within and beyond the training distribution. Our approach combines neural operators for learning latent state representations with sparse regression to incorporate parameter information in a structured manner. Across four benchmark PDEs including advection, Burgers, and both 1D and 2D reaction-diffusion equations, the proposed method consistently outperforms Fourier Neural Operator and CAPE-FNO. Late Fusion Neural Operators achieve consistently the best performance in all experiments, with an average RMSE reduction of 72.9% in-domain and 71.8% out-domain compared to the second-best method. These results demonstrate strong generalization across both in-domain and out-domain parameter regimes.

These lecture notes provide a comprehensive framework for performing global statistical fits in high-energy physics using modern Machine Learning (ML) surrogates. We begin by reviewing the statistical foundations of model building, including the likelihood function, Wilks' theorem, and profile likelihoods. Recognizing that the computational cost of evaluating model predictions often renders traditional minimization prohibitive, we introduce Boosted Decision Trees to approximate the log-likelihood function. The notes detail a robust ML workflow including efficient generation of training data with active learning and Gaussian processes, hyperparameter optimization, model compilation for speed-up, and interpretability through SHAP values to decode the influence of model parameters and interactions between parameters. We further discuss posterior distribution sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). These techniques are finally applied to the $B^\pm \to K^\pm ν\barν$ anomaly at Belle II, demonstrating how a two-stage ML model can efficiently explore the parameter space of Axion-Like Particles (ALPs) while satisfying stringent experimental constraints on decay lengths and flavor-violating couplings.

High-fidelity simulations and complex inverse problems, such as detector modeling and unfolding, are computationally intensive bottlenecks across subatomic physics, yet essential for accurate physical interpretation. While Conditional Flow Matching (CFM) offers a robust acceleration approach, we demonstrate its standard training loss is fundamentally misleading. Specifically, utilizing a Jefferson Lab Nuclear Physics (NP) kinematic dataset ($γp \to ρ^0 p \to π^+π^- p$), we expose that CFM loss plateaus prematurely, obscuring ongoing physical refinement. To verify this disconnect is a dataset-agnostic pathology, we introduce ScatterPrism, an efficient generative surrogate evaluated against both the NP data and synthetic stress tests modeling challenging 1D distribution topologies. Coupling these benchmarks, we establish that physics-informed metrics continue improving long after standard loss converges. Consequently, we propose a multi-metric diagnostic protocol to ensure true kinematic fidelity without data memorization. Driven by NP challenges relevant to the forthcoming Electron-Ion Collider (EIC), this unified machinery has strong potential to extend to High-Energy Physics (HEP) applications, such as jet modeling. Furthermore, the framework holds promise for broader domains requiring rigorous generative reliability, including medical imaging, astrophysics, and quantitative finance.

Supervised machine learning describes the practice of fitting a parameterized model to labeled input-output data. Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated promise in learning efficient surrogate models that can (partially) replace expensive high-fidelity models, making many-query analyses, such as optimization, uncertainty quantification, and inference, tractable. However, when training data must be obtained through the evaluation of an expensive model or experiment, the amount of training data that can be obtained is often limited, which can make learned surrogate models unreliable. In many engineering and scientific settings, cheaper low-fidelity models may be available, for example arising from simplified physics modeling or coarse grids. These models may be used to generate additional low-fidelity training data. The goal of multifidelity machine learning is to use both high- and low-fidelity training data to learn a surrogate model which is cheaper to evaluate than the high-fidelity model, but more accurate than any available low-fidelity model. This work proposes a new multifidelity training approach for Gaussian process regression which uses low-fidelity data to define additional features that augment the input space of the learned model. Similarly to cokriging estimators, the proposed approach conditions the high-fidelity surrogate model on the predictions of all available low-fidelity surrogate models, while benefiting from the computational efficiency of autoregressive estimators. Numerical experiments on several test problems demonstrate both increased predictive accuracy and reduced computational cost relative to the state of the art.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs), which serve as the governing equations for dynamical systems in a broad range of applications, can become cost-prohibitive for numerical simulation at scales necessary for quantifying key properties. Surrogate models of the drift function of an SDE, learned from data of the high-fidelity system, are routinely used to increase the efficiency of simulation and prediction of properties. However, standard choices of loss function for learning the surrogate model fail to provide error guarantees in certain path-dependent observables, such as transition times. This paper introduces an error bound for path-space observables and employs it as a novel variational loss for the goal-oriented learning of the drift function of a SDE. We show the error bound holds for a broad class of observables, including mean first hitting times on unbounded time domains. We derive an analytical gradient of the goal-oriented loss by leveraging the formula for Fréchet derivatives of expected path functionals, which remains tractable for implementation in stochastic gradient descent schemes. We demonstrate that surrogate models of overdamped Langevin systems developed via goal-oriented learning achieve improved accuracy in predicting the statistics of a first hitting time observable and robustness to distributional shift in the data.

For decades, physics-based climate models have been used to provide insights for climate decision-making. Their application is, however, constrained by significant computational and technical demands. Machine learning (ML) emulators offer a way to reduce these high computational costs; yet, it remains challenging to use ML emulators effectively in climate research. In practice, climate scientists often bypass emulators altogether, and machine learning researchers frequently develop them as methodological showcases without proving their practical utility. The reasons are diverse, ranging from limited accessibility and a lack of specialized knowledge to broader concerns about the physical grounding of ML methods. Here, we discuss limitations and introduce a framework for guiding emulator development, considering both climate science and machine learning perspectives. We argue that designing easy-to-adopt emulators that address clearly defined tasks and demonstrate their reliability is essential. This offers a promising path towards making machine-learning approaches more relevant and usable for applied climate research.

Active multi-fidelity surrogate modeling is developed for multi-condition airfoil shape optimization to reduce high-fidelity CFD cost while retaining RANS-consistent aerodynamic metrics. The framework couples a low-fidelity-informed Gaussian process regression transfer model with uncertainty-triggered sampling and a synchronized elitism rule embedded in a hybrid genetic algorithm. Low-fidelity XFOIL evaluations provide inexpensive features, while sparse RANS simulations are adaptively allocated when predictive uncertainty exceeds a threshold; elite candidates are mandatorily validated at high fidelity, and the population is re-evaluated to prevent evolutionary selection based on outdated fitness values produced by earlier surrogate states. The method is demonstrated for a two-point problem at $Re=6\times10^6$ with cruise at $α=2^\circ$ (maximize $E=L/D$) and take-off at $α=10^\circ$ (maximize $C_L$) using a 12-parameter CST representation. Independent multi-fidelity surrogates per flight condition enable decoupled refinement. The optimized design improves cruise efficiency by 41.05% and take-off lift by 20.75% relative to the best first-generation individual. Over the full campaign, RANS evaluations were required for only 14.78% and 9.5% of the condition-specific candidate evaluations at cruise and take-off, respectively. These percentages quantify the reduction in high-fidelity usage relative to the fixed automated RANS workflow adopted as the high-fidelity reference in this study.

Dominant approaches for modelling Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) rely on deterministic predictions, yet many physical systems of interest are inherently chaotic and uncertain. While training probabilistic models from scratch is possible, it is computationally expensive and fails to leverage the significant resources already invested in high-performing deterministic backbones. In this work, we adopt a training-efficient strategy to transform pre-trained deterministic models into probabilistic ones via retrofitting with a proper scoring rule: the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). Crucially, this approach is architecture-agnostic: it applies the same adaptation mechanism across distinct model backbones with minimal code modifications. The method proves highly effective across different scales of pre-training: for models trained on single dynamical systems, we achieve 20-54% reductions in rollout CRPS and up to 30% improvements in variance-normalised RMSE (VRMSE) relative to compute-matched deterministic fine-tuning. We further validate our approach on a PDE foundation model, trained on multiple systems and retrofitted on the dataset of interest, to show that our probabilistic adaptation yields an improvement of up to 40% in CRPS and up to 15% in VRMSE compared to deterministic fine-tuning. Validated across diverse architectures and dynamics, our results show that probabilistic PDE modelling need not require retraining from scratch, but can be unlocked from existing deterministic backbones with modest additional training cost.

Modelling rock-fluid interaction requires solving a set of partial differential equations (PDEs) to predict the flow behaviour and the reactions of the fluid with the rock on the interfaces. Conventional high-fidelity numerical models require a high resolution to obtain reliable results, resulting in huge computational expense. This restricts the applicability of these models for multi-query problems, such as uncertainty quantification and optimisation, which require running numerous scenarios. As a cheaper alternative to high-fidelity models, this work develops eight surrogate models for predicting the fluid flow in porous media. Four of these are reduced-order models (ROM) based on one neural network for compression and another for prediction. The other four are single neural networks with the property of grid-size invariance; a term which we use to refer to image-to-image models that are capable of inferring on computational domains that are larger than those used during training. In addition to the novel grid-size-invariant framework for surrogate models, we compare the predictive performance of UNet and UNet++ architectures, and demonstrate that UNet++ outperforms UNet for surrogate models. Furthermore, we show that the grid-size-invariant approach is a reliable way to reduce memory consumption during training, resulting in good correlation between predicted and ground-truth values and outperforming the ROMs analysed. The application analysed is particularly challenging because fluid-induced rock dissolution results in a non-static solid field and, consequently, it cannot be used to help in adjustments of the future prediction.

Climate policy analysis requires models that capture multi-gas climate effects, but such models are too slow to embed in reinforcement learning loops at scale. In collaboration with the European Environment Agency, we develop a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework that integrates a higher-fidelity climate surrogate as the environment transition, enabling regional agents to learn policies under multi-gas dynamics. We train a recurrent surrogate on $20{,}000$ multi-gas emission pathways to emulate CICERO-SCM. The surrogate achieves near-simulator accuracy (global-mean temperature RMSE $\approx\!4\!\times \!10^{-4}\,\mathrm{K}$) with $\sim\!1000\times$ faster one-step inference and yields $>\!100\times$ end-to-end MARL training speed-up. We show policy agreement with the simulator in tractable settings and propose a replay- and rank-consistency test (Kendall's $τ$) for assessing policy fidelity when simulator-in-the-loop training is infeasible. This enables large-scale multi-agent policy experiments while retaining high-fidelity multi-gas climate response.

We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional parameter estimation methods rely on repeated simulations of potentially expensive forward models to determine the posterior distribution of the parameter values, which may result in computationally intractable workflows. Furthermore, methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) necessitate rerunning the entire algorithm for each new data observation, further increasing the computational burden. Hence, we propose a novel method for efficiently obtaining posterior distributions of parameter estimates for high-fidelity models given data observations of interest. The method first constructs a low-fidelity, conditional generative model capable of amortized Bayesian inference and hence rapid posterior density approximation over a wide-range of data observations. When higher accuracy is needed for a specific data observation, the method employs adaptive refinement of the density approximation. It uses outputs from the low-fidelity generative model to refine the parameter sampling space, ensuring efficient use of the computationally expensive high-fidelity solver. Subsequently, a high-fidelity, unconditional generative model is trained to achieve greater accuracy in the target posterior distribution. Both low- and high- fidelity generative models enable efficient sampling from the target posterior and do not require repeated simulation of the high-fidelity forward model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method on several numerical examples, including cases with multi-modal densities, as well as an application in plasma physics for a runaway electron simulation model.

Surrogate models of parametric dynamical systems are essential for many-query and real-time predictions in engineering applications such as design optimization and digital twins. However, generating high-fidelity (HF) training data over a broad range of parameters and operating conditions remains computationally expensive. To address this challenge, we propose a Bayesian multi-fidelity Laplace neural operator (MF-LNO) for uncertainty-aware active learning of oscillatory parametric PDEs. Specifically, the proposed Bayesian MF-LNO iteratively calibrates the discrepancy between low- and high-fidelity data, where predictive uncertainty guides the adaptive acquisition of informative HF trajectories. Such predictive uncertainty is quantified via replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (reSGLD), whose broad posterior exploration enables uncertainty to serve as an error indicator for adaptive HF sample acquisition. Numerical experiments on the Lorenz system, Duffing oscillator, and beam dynamics demonstrate that uncertainty-guided HF sample acquisition consistently outperforms random sampling, while the proposed Bayesian MF-LNO achieves higher prediction accuracy than MF-DeepONet with predictive uncertainty quantification. These results demonstrate that Bayesian multi-fidelity LNOs, combined with uncertainty-guided active learning, provide a data-efficient framework for operator learning in engineering dynamical systems.

We introduce a local surrogate approach for explainable time-series forecasting. An initially non-interpretable predictive model to improve the forecast of a classical time-series 'base model' is used. 'Explainability' of the correction is provided by fitting the base model again to the data from which the error prediction is removed (subtracted), yielding a difference in the model parameters which can be interpreted. We provide illustrative examples to demonstrate the potential of the method to discover and explain underlying patterns in the data.

Practical molecular inverse design is rarely a one-shot generation problem; it often takes the form of closed-loop candidate-pool enrichment, where under a limited oracle budget the goal is to increase the fraction of generated molecules that match a desired property profile. Bayesian optimization (BO) offers a natural framework for this setting, yet standard Gaussian-process surrogates typically operate in compressed continuous embeddings, which discard the substructural and reference-similarity signals that chemists naturally use to decide where to look next. We propose BoMolLLM, a closed-loop framework in which the surrogate, rather than the generator, is treated as the locus of design choice, and instantiate it with a frozen large language model that reasons directly over the task instruction, SMILES-level optimization history, and oracle feedback in their native textual form. At each iteration, the surrogate returns a structured decision signal that selects informative reference molecules under an exploration and exploitation principle, optionally with a concise guidance sentence. This signal is converted into next-round conditioning text for a frozen molecular generator, yielding an inspectable optimization trace in natural language. Experiments on MolQA drug and material design tasks show that BoMolLLM improves over one-shot prompting, is competitive with or stronger than GP-based BO baselines, and reveals a domain-dependent interface: reference-only transfer works best for binary drug targets, while adding a concise surrogate summary is more beneficial for continuous material