Surrogate Modeling

We introduce EC-EarthFlow, a generative flow matching model that emulates simulations from the physical climate model EC-Earth3. The model is trained on transient simulations from EC-Earth3 (1950-2166, SSP2-4.5) to predict the day ahead temperature field from the previous days temperature as well as annual mean temperature. Predictions are made auto-regressively with rollout periods of between a month and an extended season. Using only this variable of interest, we are able to reproduce the daily variability, spatial patterns, annual cycle and long-term trend from EC-Earth3 at a substantially lower computational cost than the physical model. We demonstrate that EC-EarthFlow is stable for long inference periods, and that it can learn the physical relationships as simulated in EC-Earth3.

We present a new perspective on the problem of likelihood approximation within the framework of simulation-based inference that promotes scalable and controllable simulation routines for large-scale data analysis, allows efficient parameter space exploration or smooth interpolation in high-dimensions and, thus, supports valid statistical treatments of hypothesis testings as well as uncertainty quantification. In particular, we consider a chain of $n$-aggregated normalizing flows for likelihood approximation scheme, where a set of upfront replicated observation datasets from the forward complex simulation model pass through the first set of bijective transformations, and then subsequently pass to the other sets of bijective transformations. Here, we assume that, for any $k \in \{1,\,2, \ldots, n\}$, the parameters corresponding to the first $k$ sets of bijective transformations are estimated sequentially, in some sense of optimality, for constructing flexible probability distributions, regardless of the remaining $(n-k)$ sets of bijective transformations. Moreover, our objects of interest are to highlight two complementary mathematical arguments that leverage an informatics-theoretic formalization, based-on empirical likelihood estimators under moment restrictions, and a sequential decision-making paradigm, with mixing distributions, for updating and aggregating the estimated parameters of the overall normalizing flows. As a by-product, the framework provides a reliable surrogate model, conditioned on the model parameters defining the forward computational simulation, that allows samples generation, with statistical powers, and facilitates computationally tractable scheme in the Bayesian paradigm for inference, hypothesis testings and uncertainty quantification.

Machine-learning emulators of chaotic and stochastic systems are usually validated on forecast skill and long-run statistics. Neither certifies that an emulator responds correctly to forcing, the property that projection and attribution studies rely on. Linear response theory makes this testable: the forced response follows from unperturbed correlations through a generalized fluctuation-dissipation relation, and decomposes over the stochastic Ruelle-Pollicott resonances of the Koopman generator. Building on the Koopmanism Response framework, we turn this into a calibrated, mode-resolved test for learned surrogates: each surrogate rollout passes or fails each check, and failure rates are compared with those of independent realizations of the true system. On stochastic Lorenz-63, a three-variable toy model, we evaluate SINDy, an MLP, a reservoir computer, a neural ODE and a neural SDE with learned diffusion, over up to 80 rollouts each. A sparse-regression model with the correct library passes every check at rates consistent with the true system. Invariant-statistics fidelity and response fidelity dissociate in both directions: a quarter of reservoir-computer rollouts pass every invariant-statistics check and match the static susceptibility $χ(0)$, yet misrepresent the slow relaxation modes, while the neural ODE and SDE rarely meet the invariant-statistics floor but recover those modes in three quarters of rollouts. As expected of a time-integrated quantity dominated here by fast relaxation, $χ(0)$ does not separate these cases. For a fixed network, the training formulation (one-step drift, flow map, or multi-step through the integrator) decides which of these properties it gets right.

Site-specific fertilizer recommendation systems adapt nutrient advice to location, soil properties, crop type, and production targets, but scientific reuse is constrained when recommendation functions remain accessible mainly through interactive interfaces, outputs are not versioned, and trained approximations cannot be independently loaded or benchmarked. This technical report presents the Turba fertilizer machine learning stack, a three-layer open-source implementation for reproducible site-specific fertilizer recommendation in Morocco. \texttt{turba-client} provides programmatic access to publicly accessible site profiles, crop-specific target-yield spaces, and N, P$_2$O$_5$, and K$_2$O recommendation workflows; \texttt{turba-data} distributes analysis-ready snapshots; and \texttt{turba-models} packages crop-specific machine learning surrogates of recommendation outputs. The architecture links upstream retrieval, versioned analytical snapshots, reproducible cross-model benchmarking, and loadable offline surrogates while preserving the distinction between recommendation-system outputs, observed agricultural data, and model-generated predictions. The first dataset was constructed from 44,096 unique ESA WorldCereal locations. Scenario expansion across supported cereal workflows generated 132,017 crop-location recommendation requests under a medium target-yield setting. The resulting 22-variable dataset spans 10 regions, 66 provinces, and 1,149 communes. Nine regression families were evaluated under a fixed deterministic 80/20 protocol, and the current release packages five best-performing crop-specific models. The machine learning task is recommendation-function emulation rather than prediction of observed crop response. The stack provides a reproducible basis for spatial and temporal validation, uncertainty estimation, field-trial comparison, and future integration with additional data.

Rare weather regime transitions pose a challenge for data-driven modeling due to class imbalance. In this study, we develop a probabilistic deep learning emulator for a prototypical system with regime transitions, the stochastic Holton--Mass model of stratospheric variability, and analyze the structure of its learned latent space. The Holton--Mass model exhibits two metastable regimes, a strong and a weak polar vortex, maintained by nonlinear wave--mean flow interactions, with weak stochastic forcing intermittently triggering rare transitions between these regimes that qualitatively represent SSW events. We employ a ResNet-inspired Conditional Variational Autoencoder with six-layer encoder and decoder layers and explicit current-state conditioning to model the distribution of the system's state at the next time step (one day). The emulator accurately reproduces short-term dynamics, steady-state probability distributions, regime persistence statistics, rare transition rates, the transition committor function, and the transition expected lead time of the physical model. Beyond emulation fidelity, we interrogate the learned latent representation to understand how the model internalizes the underlying metastable structure of the dynamics. Principal Component Analysis of the 32-dimensional latent space reveals a clear and unsupervised separation into four physically interpretable clusters corresponding to strong versus weak vortex regimes and stable versus transition-prone configurations. Such emergent regime separation in latent space is hard to identify for deep generative models applied to high-dimensional stochastic systems. Our results show that carefully designed probabilistic emulators can uncover physically meaningful manifolds governing extreme-event dynamics, potentially aiding the development of improved operational advanced warning systems.

Emergency managers need to know where floodwater is, how deep it is, and how it will change over the coming hours across an entire river basin. During a flood, however, real-time measurements come from only a handful of stream gauges, and high-resolution hydrodynamic models are too costly to rerun each time new data arrive or to run as large ensembles. We present C-STRIDE, an observation-driven AI digital twin that turns short records from a few stream gauges, together with terrain and rainfall, into basin-wide maps of water depth and extends these predictions up to a day ahead. It is trained on simulations from a calibrated two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and needs no separate data-assimilation step. In the Des Plaines River basin near Chicago, six gauges inform predictions over 4.2 million 30-m grid cells. Terrain improves the predictions most, rainfall keeps errors from growing over longer horizons, and together they reduce errors by about 40% compared with gauge records alone. When future rainfall is known, errors remain near 15% one day ahead, compared with nearly 40% without rainfall. Given real instead of simulated gauge records, the model shifts its predictions toward the observed hydrographs at three of six gauges without retraining, and it runs about 150 times faster than the hydrodynamic model. These results show how sparse gauges, terrain, and rainfall can be combined into fast, continuously updated flood predictions, a step toward operational flood digital twins that still requires testing with real-time data and rainfall forecasts.

Machine learning surrogate models offer a promising path toward accelerating plasma turbulence simulations. We present PreVAE-Turb, a surrogate modeling framework that leverages pre-trained variational autoencoders (VAEs) from the Stable Diffusion image generation model for efficient spatial compression of turbulence fields. The pre-trained VAE is fine-tuned on turbulence data using a physics-informed loss function that includes a spectral loss operating in Fourier space to enforce spectral accuracy across scales. The VAE is combined with convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) networks to learn temporal dynamics in latent space, with a manifold consistency error metric that monitors encode--decode consistency during autoregressive rollouts. We validate the framework on two-dimensional Hasegawa-Wakatani drift-wave turbulence and extend it to gyrokinetic turbulence from the GENE code, where a four-channel adaptation simultaneously predicts electrostatic potential, density, and parallel/perpendicular temperature fluctuations without requiring architecture redesign. Once trained, inference generates thousands of time steps in seconds on a single GPU, providing substantial computational acceleration compared to direct numerical simulation. The pre-trained approach offers a transferable methodology broadly applicable to various turbulence simulation codes.

Active grounding of a frozen diffusion prior requires jointly determining where new measurements should be taken and how they should be used to refine the current reconstruction. Posterior-ensemble-based methods can estimate acquisition utility from generated samples, but require repeated ensemble generation as observations accumulate and capture posterior geometry only through empirical statistics. This paper proposes GPARA, which learns a context-dependent graph surrogate over diffusion prediction residuals, inducing an explicitly reusable posterior response operator that propagates measurement innovations to unobserved variables and evaluates candidate measurements through weighted posterior-risk reduction. Under the matched surrogate, we show that the same response operator also determines expected one-step acquisition benefit and yields an analytic ranking consistent with expected reconstruction improvement. A bounded learned residual calibrates the analytic utility to account for surrogate mismatch, while a small prior ensemble is generated once and reconditioned to update risk weights without repeated diffusion posterior sampling during acquisition. Experiments on two reconstruction tasks spanning physical field and computer vision show consistent improvements in refinement and active acquisition over the evaluated baselines. Ablations further support the complementary roles of step-wise graph refinement, adaptive risk weighting, and analytically anchored calibration.

Machine learning (ML) emulators provide a fast and cost-effective method to simulate climate change scenarios after being trained on Earth System Models projections. However, the black-box nature of those data-driven approaches limit the usability and trustworthiness of their outputs and in particular their use as causal attribution tools. Here, we develop a hierarchical causal representation learning framework applied to sea surface temperature fields from a state-of-the-art global climate model. As a key advance over previous work, our framework explicitly models both atmospheric dynamical interactions arising from internal climate variability and forced responses due to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations. When trained on future climate change scenarios, our method accurately predicts the long-term global mean and regional temperature evolution and shows physically realistic responses to perturbations in greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations when evaluated on unseen scenarios. Our results underline the potential of causal representation learning frameworks for advancing climate model emulation.

Fast surrogates for tokamak boundary-plasma simulation are typically deterministic regressors mapping a global operating point to a flattened vector of cell values. Near the divertor detachment transition the steady state is not reliably single-valued. A point estimate must average over qualitatively different plasma states, and it arrives with no statement of confidence. Moreover, the flattened vector representation discards the geometric structure of the SOLPS-ITER mesh. This work addresses both problems. We unroll the curvilinear mesh into three fixed-size image tensors whose layout preserves cell adjacency and inverts exactly, letting a convolutional network act on the geometry without loss of information. A conditional flow matching model, well suited to highly sensitive systems, is then trained on this representation. The result is an efficient, scalable surrogate that captures multiple plausible outcomes even at sensitive operating points. Along a gas-puff scan, the predictive distribution splits into a hot and a cold mode across an early regime transition. A further check on synthetic data with an injected bifurcation of known size confirms the model recovers both branches rather than their average.

Topology optimization (TO) remains computationally intensive due to repeated finite element analysis (FEA) evaluations required at each iteration. While neural network-based surrogates offer potential acceleration, existing approaches often suffer from gradient inconsistency between predicted objectives and sensitivities, leading to optimization instability. This work presents KATOsuper, an objective-agnostic framework that couples neural-reparameterized topology optimization with a Sensitivity-Consistent Fourier Neural Operator (SC-FNO). The framework employs the forward_split architecture, which derives deployed sensitivities via automatic differentiation through the predicted objective field and thereby preserves consistency between the predicted objective and the gradient used for optimization. The case studies include three 2D benchmark problems and three 3D structures considering compliance or stress minimization. A physics-informed multi-channel input encoding with Fourier position embedding enables resolution-invariant learning, supporting zero-shot extrapolation beyond the training resolution, with useful performance at moderate scaling factors and topology-preserving exploration at up to 64x without retraining. The framework extends to 3D through KATO3D, featuring novel KANConv3D blocks with learnable B-spline activations. KATOsuper demonstrates 15--110x deployment-time speedup over MATLAB baselines while maintaining competitive optimality, with the clearest gains observed in complex 3D and stress-optimization cases. The insight that sensitivity direction matters more than magnitude enables robust optimization even with approximate physics evaluation, extensible to other differentiable physics-driven design objectives.

Estimating the causal effects of medical treatments is difficult when clinically important outcomes are costly to measure or require long follow-up. Short-term or inexpensive surrogate outcomes offer a potential alternative, but surrogate biomarkers may be unavailable or difficult to identify. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled increasingly accurate prediction of clinical outcomes from inexpensive, high-dimensional measurements, which creates an opportunity to use AI predictions themselves as surrogates. To this end, we develop a framework for estimating treatment effects from paired measurements obtained before and after treatment for each treated individual. A pretrained AI model is applied to the before and after measurements, and our estimator compares the resulting outcome predictions. We characterize the technical assumptions under which this within-person contrast identifies the average treatment effect on the treated, even when clinical outcomes are never observed for treated individuals. When these assumptions cannot be justified, we use prediction-powered inference to correct bias using a small number of observed clinical outcomes and obtain valid inference. Synthetic and real-world cardio-oncology experiments demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the approach.

Drifting provides a direct route to one-step generative models, but applying it directly to stochastic transition modeling requires multiple samples of the next state conditioned on the same current state. Standard trajectory data, however, typically provide only one realized next state for each observed current state and therefore do not provide an empirical approximation of the corresponding conditional distribution over possible next states. We introduce block-triangular joint drifting, which instead applies a projected drift field to the empirically accessible joint distribution of consecutive states. Importantly, the block-triangular architecture preserves the current-state marginal while making its second component a direct sampler of the conditional distribution of possible next states. The resulting surrogate generates stochastic trajectories with one model evaluation per time step, without auxiliary generative steps between time steps. Numerical experiments demonstrate accurate marginal and trajectory-dependent statistics and favorable accuracy-cost tradeoffs compared with deterministic, diffusion-, flow-, and distillation-based generative surrogate models.

Tracking neurite morphology over time helps characterize structural changes during neuronal development and deterioration, but long-term time-lapse imaging is resource-intensive and difficult to scale. Forecasting future morphology could reduce this burden. Existing neurite digital-twin models such as gated spatiotemporal attention (gSTA) produce a single deterministic forecast without representing variability among plausible futures. We introduce Morphology-Gated Residual Diffusion (MGRD), a compact stochastic surrogate that jointly forecasts twenty future neurite-morphology frames from ten observed frames while conditioning on morphology features derived from the latest observation. On controlled phase-field trajectories, MGRD reduces trajectory-wise mean MAE by 9.7% relative to a matched control while updating 4.46 times fewer parameters. On human iPSC-derived neuron microscopy, MGRD improves all four reported metrics over gSTA, including a 39.6% reduction in trajectory-wise mean MAE and a 45.3% increase in skeleton F1. Without mouse-domain retraining or fine-tuning, MGRD also improves MAE and skeleton F1 on mouse cortical-neurosphere microscopy across 10-40-min sampling intervals and forecast horizons beyond 13 hours. Repeated sampling provides a case-level variance score for ranking forecast difficulty. Retaining approximately 60% of the lowest-variance cases reduces mean MAE by 17.6% on iPSC microscopy and 16.8% on simulation data. MGRD uses 1.01% of gSTA's parameters, requires less than one tenth of its training-update time, and generates a 50-step DDIM trajectory 7.9% faster when morphology features are cached. These results establish MGRD as a compact stochastic surrogate for neurite-morphology forecasting and case prioritization across simulation and microscopy datasets.

Greenhouse gas emissions estimates can be derived using inverse methods by combining atmospheric concentration observations with chemical transport models. The latter traditionally use physics-driven simulators such as Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs), which are expensive to run and do not scale well to modern satellites' high resolution data. Previously we developed a performant atmospheric transport emulator that approximates LPDM outputs ("footprints") over South America ~1,000X faster than the UK Met Office's LPDM. Expanding towards global emulation is not straightforward, as atmospheric transport is regionally heterogeneous. This paper evaluates spatial transferability capabilities of models across four world regions: South America, East Asia, South Asia, North Africa using both region-specific and multi-region models, and leave-one-region-out experiments. Regional differences are characterised in the context of input variable and output footprint distributions. This work builds intuition in cross-region generalisation and transfer learning, aiding regional performance towards efficient global emissions estimates.

Mitral regurgitation is the most common heart valve disorder worldwide, affecting over 2% of the global population, rising to at least 10% in adults over 75, and causing approximately 15% of valvular heart disease-related deaths. Yet only a minority of patients with severe disease undergo corrective surgery. Rapid assessment of valve mechanics could enable earlier, more precise intervention, but traditional finite element simulations remain too slow for clinical timelines and parameter sweeps. We introduce the Physics-Conditioned Neural Operator (PCNO), a transformer-based surrogate that predicts leaflet displacement, strain, and stress fields across mitral and tricuspid geometries, conditioned on systolic blood pressure and tissue properties. Trained on functional, regurgitated, and pathological valves, including tethering, P2 prolapse, and annular dilation, PCNO achieves up to a 15,260x speedup over fine mesh finite element simulations with comparable accuracy, identifies pathology class, and resolves diagnostic metrics within 3.5% error under out-of-distribution extrapolation.

Connected-vehicle safety evaluations rely on coupled traffic and network simulations, but standard channel models ignore radio resource competition in 5G NR sidelink Mode-2, reporting unrealistically high message delivery in dense traffic. This study introduces resource-competition losses without requiring full protocol reimplementation. We labeled 10.5 million reception outcomes from ns-3 5G-LENA traces (calibrated on 3GPP scenarios and driven by SUMO trajectories) to fit NS3Learn - a closed-form model capturing half-duplex loss, scheduling collisions, receiver capture, and decoding. Evaluation spanned two signalized urban networks, six penetration levels (1-100%), and five random seeds per condition. NS3Learn achieved a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 in per-instant delivery compared to ns-3 5G-LENA, outperforming alternative models (0.44 and 0.55 deviation). Fitted parameters transferred to a distinct intersection with only 20% additional error. Crucially, using realistic communication models reversed simulated traffic speed trends and more than doubled predicted hard-braking events. The framework transfers reception realism between simulators via model distillation instead of full reimplementation. Every stage maps directly to an explicit physical mechanism. Researchers and transportation agencies can maintain existing simulation pipelines while accurately accounting for dense-traffic packet loss and denial-of-service impacts. Adapting to new radio configurations requires only offline refitting rather than code modification.

Generative models are increasingly central to many de novo discovery pipelines, in which designs are generated at scale and filtered through virtual screens to determine a set of candidates to experimentally validate. While Bayesian optimization (BO) is a natural fit for this setting, as it uses past evaluations to guide future proposals, the computational overhead required for its sequential decision-making becomes a bottleneck when virtual screens are relatively cheap. We make BO practical in this regime by exploiting the unique combination of a linear model constrained to a spherical domain where high-dimensional latents concentrate. We build off recent work justifying the use of linear surrogates, while deriving nearly closed-form solutions to the surrogate modelling and acquisition problems that exploit spherical symmetry. The result is at least a 100x speedup over state-of-the art baselines, with matching or improved performance across molecular and image generation benchmarks. Altogether, our method makes BO a practical drop-in for de novo pipelines where it was previously too slow to consider.

Optimizing industrial process flowsheets is often computationally prohibitive due to the high cost of rigorous simulations and the curse of dimensionality inherent in complex design spaces. To address these challenges, we present a reduced-space multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization (RS-MFBO) framework designed for high-dimensional, expensive black-box functions. The approach integrates Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) for dimensionality reduction with a fidelity-augmented Gaussian process that captures correlations between low-cost approximations and expensive high-fidelity evaluations. A cost-aware acquisition strategy, augmented with cooldown and promotion mechanisms, adaptively guides the allocation of samples across fidelities. The framework is validated on two distinct industrial process simulators: a plasmid DNA bioprocess in SuperPro Designer and a green fuel synthesis plant in Aspen HYSYS. Results across diverse economic and physical objectives demonstrate that the proposed method substantially reduces the number of high-fidelity simulator evaluations while maintaining competitive optimization performance compared to single-fidelity baselines. These results highlight RS-MFBO as a scalable, simulator-agnostic approach for cost-constrained black-box optimization.

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are commonly represented through multiple interconnected models. During development, CPS consistency requires that shared model elements remain compatible across these models. Uncertainty, for example, due to sensor noise or model abstraction, changes the admissible values of model elements and can introduce inconsistencies, i.e., situations in which models can no longer be jointly satisfied. While existing approaches can determine consistency for a given uncertainty configuration, they provide limited support for systematically exploring, analyzing, and explaining inconsistency across large uncertainty spaces. We address this challenge by reformulating inconsistency as an intervention response modeling problem. Using Saltelli sampling and multi-fidelity Monte Carlo estimation, we generate intervention-response datasets and train a surrogate model that directly predicts inconsistency from the propagated uncertainty geometry. Experiments on 48 scenarios and 10 CPS domains show that the surrogate matches Monte Carlo estimates while reducing evaluation time from milliseconds to microseconds, enabling orders-of-magnitude more response-surface evaluations within fixed computational budgets. Building on the learned response surfaces, we perform sensitivity analysis to identify dominant uncertainty drivers and introduce a gradient-based consistency recourse method to determine minimal uncertainty interventions that restore consistency. The results show that inconsistency under uncertainty can be effectively learned, analyzed, and repaired through response-surface modeling, providing a scalable foundation for uncertainty-aware consistency management in CPS development.

Railway engineers need simulation models that predict vehicle responses across operating scenarios that cannot be tested exhaustively. Agreement with representative measurements provides essential evidence, but calibration at a limited set of conditions does not guarantee accuracy elsewhere. We present a multifidelity railway-bogie response-correction method that treats multibody simulation histories as low-fidelity information and roller-rig measurements as high-fidelity evidence. This method combines an experiment-anchored fidelity assignment with physics-informed discrepancy learning for multichannel bogie-response histories. A time-delay neural network (TDNN) represents the condition-dependent simulation trend, and development-fitted amplitude alignment defines the low-fidelity baseline. A residual-correction network then models the reproducible response component not explained by this baseline and adds it to the baseline. An effective dynamic-balance equation constrains the learned discrepancy by representing differences in inertia, damping, stiffness, and external forcing between the simulated and physical systems. The training objective combines this constraint with residual matching, temporal smoothness, and a combined channel-2 acceleration loss selected using displacement-acceleration consistency evidence. For the evaluated reconstruction case, the corrected response gives a mean coefficient of determination of 0.8197, a mean normalized root-mean-square error (NRMSE) of 4.6055 %, and a mean normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of 1.9297 %. These results provide initial evidence of accurate response prediction at the held-out 385 km/h condition.

Graph-based surrogate models offer a promising route to accelerate computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations on unstructured meshes. However, their development is limited by the scarcity of benchmark datasets spanning multiple flow regimes and standardized protocols for long-horizon autoregressive prediction. We introduce ONECYL (ONE CYLinder), a new benchmark for unsteady flow past a circular cylinder across laminar, transitional, and high-Reynolds-number regimes. The benchmark comprises 450 high-fidelity Variational Multiscale finite-element simulations (270,000 flow snapshots) with randomized cylinder geometries, providing time-resolved velocity and pressure fields together with mesh connectivity, geometric descriptors, Reynolds numbers, and integrated aerodynamic quantities. Beyond the dataset, ONECYL establishes a unified evaluation framework combining full-field rollout errors, virtual probes, and drag and lift predictions to assess numerical accuracy and physical fidelity. To accompany the benchmark, we develop a Graph Transformer as a reference baseline predicting velocity and pressure fields autoregressively on unstructured meshes. Using ONECYL, we investigate geometric representations and physics-based regularization across the three Reynolds-number regimes. The results show that explicitly encoding the cylinder geometry through a level-set representation consistently improves long-horizon prediction accuracy and generalization to unseen geometries, while divergence-based regularization becomes increasingly beneficial as flow complexity increases. The ONECYL benchmark and its Graph Transformer baseline provide a reproducible framework for evaluating graph-based surrogate models and establish a foundation for future research on long-horizon prediction of unsteady bluff-body flows.

Machine learning emulators have become essential for accelerating expensive Earth-system simulations, but most existing approaches remain passive forecasters: they reproduce simulator trajectories under prescribed forcings without an explicit interaction mechanism for user-specified interventions. This limits their use in interactive scientific workflows and Earth-system digital twins, where users often need to explore how a system would respond if selected state components were changed. We propose an action-conditioned world-modeling framework for Earth-system emulation that reformulates simulator trajectories as supervision for controllable state-transition learning. The key idea is transition-action pretraining: naturally observed state changes are treated as label-free action supervision, allowing the model to learn both prescribed dynamics and action-conditioned responses without manually annotated interventions. We further introduce masked response learning to infer unobserved variables under partial state edits and learn coupled system dependencies. We test this framework on ecosystem dynamics across six global regions and multiple stand ages. Experiments show that the model preserves competitive long-horizon emulation accuracy while enabling controllable structural interventions and coherent responses in coupled ecosystem-cycle variables. These results suggest a practical route from passive Earth-system emulators toward interactive, intervention-aware scientific surrogates.

We study the local errors of classical machine-learning surrogate models, which approximate the time evolution of the one-dimensional viscous Burgers equation. Four models are compared on the same prediction task, using the spatial grid values directly: radial basis function (RBF) kernel ridge regression (KRR), linear Ridge, ExtraTrees, and Random Forests. Across all four models, the one-step residual, defined here as the true value minus the predicted value at each grid point, forms clear curved branches near predicted maxima and minima. A more detailed analysis of KRR shows that these errors are much more strongly related to the second spatial derivative, which measures local curvature, than to the first spatial derivative. Near a smooth extremum, predicted value and curvature form a local two-branch fold. Under our local curvature-based model of the residual, this fold predicts a leading-order near-parabolic relation between predicted value and residual. This geometric result motivates a direct test of the Burgers advection (transport) and diffusion (smoothing) terms. For KRR and Ridge, regression tests on held-out trajectories, a control that breaks the spatial alignment of the diffusion term, and a spectral test of high-frequency content are consistent with insufficient viscous smoothing at moderate and high viscosity. In this case, the surrogate retains more small-scale structure than the true future state. The same physical explanation is much weaker for the tree models. Finally, a correction that uses only predicted quantities reduces both one-step error and error during recursive rollout, where each prediction is used as the next input.

We convert black-box clinical prediction models for tabular data into standalone nomograms that can be audited term by term. PRiSM (Partial Responses in Structured Models) takes the shape of each effect and interaction from the source model, not merely which variables mattered, and lets the outcome select and weight them. We tested this in 50,356 heart transplant recipients, with validation in a later era than training. Nomograms from all 5 source models - a public clinical risk score, logistic regression, neural networks, random forests and extreme gradient boosting - met a prespecified noninferiority criterion for discrimination before any further simplification, and generally preserved calibration and clinical net benefit. Those from the 3 machine-learning models showed no detectable difference in discrimination from de novo generalized additive and explainable boosting models, exceeded neural additive models, and carried fewer terms than the explainable boosting model. PRiSM is released as an open-source Python package.

Predicting storm surge induced by landfalling tropical cyclones is crucial for flood mitigation and coastal risk management. Traditionally, physics-based numerical models simulate storm surge by solving the Navier--Stokes equations using numerical methods, but these simulations are computationally expensive. Generative models are promising for storm surge emulation because they can generate diverse realizations rather than producing a single deterministic prediction. However, their use for storm surge emulation remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we leverage diffusion models for storm surge surrogate modeling, combining a baseline prediction stage with conditional generation to provide a more interpretable modeling framework. We develop SurgeGen, a two-stage generative framework for generating storm surge scenarios conditioned on hypothetical storms with parameters defined in a continuous space. First, a baseline model produces a coarse estimate of the storm surge height. This estimate then conditions a diffusion model, which generates refined storm surge scenarios that better capture spatial patterns and variability. We demonstrate that our approach can generate realistic and diverse storm surge scenarios under conditions both within and outside the training distribution.

Deploying heterogeneous AI models concurrently on a shared GPU introduces resource contention that complicates runtime scheduling. While surrogate models avoid costly online benchmarking, their profiling requirements typically grow combinatorially with the number of co-running models, limiting scalability. We propose a MeanField surrogate that predicts per-model performance from local configuration and aggregate GPU state rather than explicitly modeling all joint interactions. Experiments on concurrent LLM and vision workloads across $N \in \{2,3,4,5,6\}$ show high predictive accuracy ($R^2 \approx 0.96$) with an empirical sample budget that grows approximately linearly in $N$, in contrast to the combinatorial cost of fully joint profiling. Integrated into a genetic algorithm scheduler, the surrogate scales to an $N=5$ problem with 78,732 feasible joint configurations, remaining within 0.10% of the exhaustive search with zero SLA violations across eight dynamic workload scenarios, while complete online GA decisions take 26 ms median, about $5\times$ faster than exhaustive surrogate search.

Structured pruning uses surrogate objectives because direct task evaluation over every feasible mask is too expensive. Most evaluations report average surrogate error or rank correlation on broadly sampled masks. These summaries do not directly test the mask chosen by the surrogate. We introduce PruneShift, an evaluation framework that separates broad predictive fidelity, fidelity near selector outputs, and the quality of the selected pruning decision. We first prove that Spearman and Kendall agreement can approach one while normalized selection regret remains maximal. We then derive sufficient conditions based on uniform error, selector suboptimality, decision margin, density ratio, and comparison mass. The analysis also yields a finite pool certificate with an explicit excess cost bound. Four studies test different links in this argument. External TextbookQA confirmation is heterogeneous: 7 of 20 simultaneous intervals favor the surrogate-selected mask, 6 favor its fixed comparator, and 7 cross zero. On a fixed Natural Questions pool, strict improvement holds in one of four settings. A controlled QQP experiment supports the proposed coverage mechanism in all 16 prespecified endpoints, although the sufficient bounds are conservative. Finally, a restricted OSSCAR reconstruction study on OPT-125M shows better local than broad fidelity in 68 of 75 primary endpoints. Independent fixed-mask confirmation is inconclusive in 24 of 25 endpoints and favors the comparator in one. These results show why predictive fit, decision reliability, and pruning method quality require separate evidence.

Modern AI models such as tabular foundation models and gradient-boosted ensembles can outpredict classical methods, but provide little basis for reasoning about their predictions. High-stakes decisions call for models that are both accurate and interpretable as built. Local linear modeling offers a path forward: a smooth regression function is locally well approximated by a linear one, allowing a linear fit near each query point to achieve high accuracy without sacrificing transparency. The challenges lie in learning what is "local" and developing statistical tools for interpretation. Here, we propose local distillation, in which a black-box "teacher" guides a regularized linear "student" model at each query point. The teacher (1) defines locality by upweighting training observations with similar predicted outcomes, and (2) anchors the fit with its prediction at the query point, included as a pseudo-observation whose weight is estimated from the data. For interpretation, we add a small amount of Gaussian randomization to the local objective and use refits to assess stability: selection frequencies identify reliable features at a query point, and clustering the randomized fits identifies stable subgroups across the data. Under the lasso penalty, we prove that this randomization yields feature-selection probabilities that are stable under small perturbations of the training responses. Across 17 benchmark datasets, local distillation nearly matches its AI teacher's accuracy while producing a sparse linear model at each test point. In a high-dimensional cancer gene expression example, the framework identifies patient subgroups whose local models use different genes; this heterogeneity is invisible to a global linear model, and difficult to surface in a black-box model.

We present a stochastic coupled emulator of E3SM version 3, built on the SamudrACE framework, which couples an atmosphere emulator (ACE2) with a full-depth ocean emulator (Samudra). We replace the deterministic atmosphere emulator with its stochastic counterpart, ACE2S, and fine-tune the coupled system with a probabilistic objective, so that the atmosphere acts as a source of internal variability for the ocean. Trained on 105 years of a pre-industrial control simulation and evaluated on an independent 400 years, the emulator reproduces E3SMv3's mean climate state with biases much smaller than existing model-to-observation differences. Relative to a deterministic baseline, stochastic training maintains internal variability across timescales, most notably in the ENSO power spectrum, eddy-rich SST anomalies, and sea ice variability in the marginal ice zone. The emulator captures daily precipitation accurately up to the 99.99th percentile, but underestimates the rarest tropical extremes. These results show that stochastic coupled emulators can reproduce long-timescale variability with high fidelity, while extrapolation to unseen extremes remains a key challenge.