Wildfire Forecasting

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4 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 17

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

PyroStack: A Multi-Band Spatio-Temporal Sub-Daily Dataset for Wildfires in the United States

Wildfires are an increasing hazard to ecosystems, air quality, and human systems, creating a growing need for datasets that support systematic development and evaluation of models for predicting fire spread across diverse landscapes. Effective prediction requires integrating meteorological conditions, fuels, vegetation, and topography at spatial and temporal resolutions suitable for both physical simulation and data-driven approaches. However, existing datasets often lack the resolution and coverage needed to capture these interacting controls. The PyroStack dataset addresses this gap by providing a harmonized, event-based collection of wildfire and environmental data across the contiguous United States and Alaska. It integrates satellite-derived fire observations with atmospheric reanalysis, vegetation, fuel characteristics, and topographic information into a unified framework spanning 6994 wildfires that occurred between 2012 and 2024 across a wide range of ecosystems and climate conditions. PyroStack offers spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 9 km and hourly temporal resolution, along with fire progression data at 12-hour intervals to support model initialization and evaluation. By combining broad spatial coverage with fine spatial and temporal detail, the dataset enables systematic analysis of wildfire dynamics and supports both physics-based and machine learning approaches, providing a foundation for benchmarking and improving fire spread models, with future extensions aimed at incorporating additional regions and fire suppression data streams to further advance wildfire prediction.

Arya Kondur, Giosue Migliorini, Cameron Schmitt +14

Department of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA · Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA +6

Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Remote Sensing Benchmarks

Sep 28, 2026cs.LG

When local gains fail to transfer: Frozen Earth-observation embeddings across wildfires

Frozen Earth-observation embeddings are judged almost entirely by spatially blocked cross-validation inside one study region. We show that this number does not predict accuracy in a new region; we show why; and we show the one setting in which such a model does keep working, using a protocol that needs only a linear probe and labels one already has. The testbed is wildfire, with Copernicus burned-area maps of six fires in Greece and Spain and descriptors from the year before each fire, comparing TESSERA and AlphaEarth with ESA WorldCover classes and annual Sentinel-2 index summaries. Inside a fire, the embeddings identify the burned land 0.05 to 0.13 ROC AUC better than the index summaries, and repeated fold allocations, spatial buffers, a block bootstrap, and gradient-boosted trees leave that margin unchanged. On a fire in another region, they lose 0.15 to 0.18 AUC, and the index summaries lose 0.06, so the three end within a few hundredths of each other. The representation is not the cause. Eight labelled blocks from the new region restore the embedding advantage and give a higher AUC than 59,000 labelled pixels from other regions, and the weight vector fitted in one region is nearly orthogonal to the vector fitted in the others, so the part that carries across regions is small and low-dimensional. Forecasting within a region is a different matter. Fitted on a fire that burned in 2023 and applied to a fire twelve kilometres away that burned in 2024, where nothing used postdates the target fire, TESSERA reaches 0.772 AUC and loses 0.04 against a classifier fitted inside the 2024 fire, while classifiers fitted in other regions lose 0.09 to 0.18. A region with one mapped fire can therefore forecast susceptibility for later fires there; a region without one cannot borrow a model from elsewhere, and every evaluation of a frozen embedding should report a held-out region.

Philipp Stark, Alexandros Sopasakis, Ola Hall

Department of Human Geography Lund University Sölvegatan 10, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden · Centre for Mathematical Sciences Lund University Sölvegatan 18, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden

Geospatial Foundation Models Geospatial Representation Learning Wildfire Forecasting Domain Generalization

Sep 16, 2026cs.LG

Interpretable Patch-Based Deep Learning for Wildfire Spread Prediction from Ensemble Simulations

Wildfire spread is traditionally predicted using physics-based simulators, which are physically interpretable but whose cost increases with each additional ensemble member. We ask how well deep learning surrogates can reproduce these simulations at a fraction of this cost, training them on 10,584 fire spread simulations at 2m resolution for the Rectoret region in Catalonia, Spain. Four architectures are compared: a patch-based U-Net, a transfer-learned ResNet-50, a physics-informed network constrained by the wind-driven advection equation and a Swin-Unet transformer. Among the terrain and vegetation variables, only surface fuel load predicts burn probability with any strength (r = 0.27) and including it lowers prediction error by 21%. The remaining variables correlate weakly and are highly duplicative. Next, an experiment with saliency, occlusion and rotation demonstrates the models' learning. Convolutional models rely primarily on distance from the current fire front, while Swin-Unet assigns more weight to fuel and terrain, a finding also noted in an unrelated wildfire dataset. When applied without retraining to the second region, Pedriza, all three convolutional models still predict fire spread, losing accuracy by a small but systematic margin.

Marcin Lawenda, Aleksandra Krasicka, David Caballero +2

Poznan Supercomputing and Networking Center, Poznań, Poland · MeteoGrid, Madrid, Spain · Technical University of Czestochowa, Częstochowa, Poland

Neural Surrogate Modeling Wildfire Forecasting Physics-Informed ML Convolutional Neural Networks

Sep 15, 2026cs.LG

Modular Deep Learning Mechanisms for Auditable Next-Day Wildfire Spread Prediction

Next-day wildfire prediction requires models whose forecasts can be evaluated alongside the assumptions and historical evidence used in their computation. Although deep learning can learn spatial patterns from remote-sensing data, predictive performance alone does not establish physical fidelity or operational trustworthiness. This study investigates three modular augmentations for next-day active-fire prediction: wind- and slope-conditioned attention biases, physics-feature retrieval-augmented output correction, and fire conditioned dual-stream gating. The attention biases expose prescribed directional preferences, while the retrieval module selects historical tiles using a nine-dimensional environmental and fire-state descriptor and applies a learned correction to a frozen model's logits. The modules are evaluated across five backbones on the Next Day Wildfire Spread benchmark, using staged ablations, directional audits, retrieval perturbations, calibration measures, and computational comparisons. The three-seed mean F1 score and area under the precision--recall curve (AUC-PR) of a SwinUNETR model with all three augmentations are 0.4216 and 0.3673. Then, a mixed ensemble (two augmented architectures and one non-augmented architecture) model achieves 0.4292 and 0.3790. Benefits vary across architectures, and retrieval-related improvements in AUC-PR do not consistently translate into higher F1. The constructed wind bias aligns closely with input wind, but its alignment with observed next-day fire displacement is much weaker, distinguishing prior inspectability from predictive physical fidelity. The study contributes a framework for exposing and evaluating selected domain-informed components within wildfire prediction models. Together, the results presented show that predictive performance, operational trustworthiness, and computational practicality need not be competing objectives.

Miguel Esparza, Aydin Ayanzadeh Ahmad Mousavi, Ali Mostafavi

Urban Resilience.AI Lab, Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA · Department of Information Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA · Department of Mathematics and Statistics, American University, Washington, D.C. 20016, USA

Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Modular Neural Networks

Sep 1, 2026stat.AP

Random Forest-Informed Cellular Automaton for Large-Scale Wildfire Spread Modelling

Accurate large-scale wildfire spread modelling requires models that capture both the environmental conditions associated with fire occurrence and the local dynamics of fire propagation. We propose a three-stage framework that combines a Random Forest (RF) model with a cellular automaton (CA). First, an RF model trained on the 2021 Canadian fire season estimates daily pixel-level fire-occurrence probabilities. Second, quantile gradient boosting models provide optional spread-rate priors for sensitivity analysis. Third, an RF-informed CA combines the RF probability layer with neighbourhood-driven spread on a 5 km grid. The RF model achieved AUC values of 0.725--0.795 on the 2022--2024 datasets, while the RF-informed CA achieved substantially higher spatial overlap than the evaluated CA-only baselines in the 2023 simulation. A higher-resolution simulation provides an additional qualitative assessment of local spatial errors. These results suggest that combining RF-derived probabilities with local CA spread can improve large-scale wildfire simulations under the tested conditions.

Siyu Chen, Esha Saha, Hao Wang

Cellular Automata Wildfire Forecasting

Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

Evaluating the Generalizability of Foundation Models for Extreme Environmental Events: Case Study of California Wildfire PM2.5

Wildfire smoke events produce extreme PM

_{2.5}

concentrations that pose severe public health risks, yet forecasting rare, hazardous-level spikes remains a fundamental challenge. Time series foundation models (TSFMs), pretrained models offering zero-shot inference and efficient adaptation, perform strongly on general benchmarks, but their behavior under extreme out-of-distribution conditions is poorly understood. We present the first systematic benchmark comparing six TSFM configurations (zero-shot TimesFM, Chronos-2, Moirai-2, and Time-MoE, plus LoRA fine-tuned Chronos-2 and Time-MoE) against fully-trained baselines (LSTM, BiLSTM, Transformer) and naive persistence on a 12-year (2013--2025) hourly PM

_{2.5}

dataset covering 1,375 wildfire incidents across 79 California monitoring sites. A leave-one-incident-out (LOIO) protocol evaluates generalization to unseen fires, using MAE, RMSE, and exceedance F1 at EPA AQI thresholds across 6-, 12-, and 24-hour horizons. Results reveal a consistent hierarchy. The BiLSTM achieves the lowest MAE (

5.16\,μg/m^3

) and the highest exceedance F1 at every threshold, including the Hazardous band (

>225.5\,μg/m^3

), reaching 0.63 versus at most 0.54 for any foundation model. Zero-shot TSFMs improve on persistence only modestly, and zero-shot Chronos-2 exhibits severe RMSE tail instability (

23.4\,μg/m^3

, negative

R^2

) from sporadic large errors. LoRA fine-tuning substantially improves both adapted families and largely repairs this instability, yet no foundation model surpasses the trained recurrent baselines on any metric. These findings challenge the assumption that larger pretrained models universally dominate environmental forecasting and provide actionable deployment guidance for wildfire air quality prediction.

Yongcan Huang, Li Jiang, Ze Yu Liu

College of Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA · Information System Department, UMBC, Baltimore, Maryland, USA · College of Graduate and Professional Studies, Trine University, Angola, Indiana, USA +1

Wildfire Forecasting OOD Generalization Forecasting Benchmarks Air Quality Prediction Time-Series Foundation Models

Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

Physics-guided spatiotemporal neural models for fuel density prediction

This paper presents a physics-guided machine learning (PGML) framework for fuel density prediction, integrating physics constraints and domain knowledge into deep learning models to enhance model accuracy and stability. We explore three deep learning architectures -- ConvLSTM, Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator (AFNONet), and Video Vision Transformer (ViViT) -- to model the spatiotemporal evolution of fuel density. Our approach incorporates differentiable physics-informed terms in the loss function, including a mass-conserving fuel transport term and a rate-of-spread estimation. Experimental results, averaged across multiple independent trials, demonstrate that the proposed PGML framework outperforms purely data-driven baselines without physics constraints in both accuracy and stability. This framework enables computationally efficient, physically plausible fire forecasting to support adaptive prescribed burn management.

Tolga Caglar, Jaynil Jaiswal, Saqib Azim +3

San Diego Supercomputer Center University of California, San Diego

Wildfire Forecasting Physics-Informed ML Spatiotemporal Forecasting

Jun 15, 2026cs.CV

Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Spread Prediction in Canada using a Video Swin-Hybrid-U-Net and Satellite Imagery

Background: Wildfires in Canada present increasing threats to ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, demanding accurate forecasting tools to aid mitigation efforts. Existing models often lack scalability or fail to capture temporal dynamics effectively. Aims: This study aims to develop a deep learning framework tailored to Canadian wildfire spread prediction that captures spatio-temporal patterns in environmental data. Methods: We propose a U-Net architecture integrating a Video Swin Transformer encoder with a convolutional decoder to model three-day sequences of meteorological and environmental variables. Data are exclusively sourced from public repositories via Google Earth Engine, ensuring transparency and scalability. The model is trained and tested on a curated dataset of major Canadian wildfire events from 2014 to 2023. Key results: Our approach achieves strong predictive performance by effectively leveraging spatio-temporal attention to forecast next-day fire incidence maps. Conclusions: The model successfully captures complex wildfire dynamics unique to Canada's landscape and temporal variability. Implications: This framework paves the way for advanced spatio-temporal wildfire forecasting research and operational applications using publicly accessible datasets.

Maulik Srivastava, Esha Saha, Hao Wang

Faculty of Science, University of Alberta · Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology & Epidemiology (ILMEE), University of Alberta · Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta

Wildfire Forecasting

Jun 12, 2026cs.CV

ShearFuse-UNet: Hadamard, DCT, and Shearlet Transform Fusion for Next-Day Wildfire Spread Prediction

We propose ShearFuse-UNet, a lightweight and computationally efficient deep learning model for next-day wildfire spread prediction from multi-modal satellite data. The model integrates three complementary transform-domain branches inside each encoder block of a U-Net backbone: a 2D Fast Walsh-Hadamard Transform (WHT) branch, a 2D Discrete Cosine Transform (DCT) branch, and a cone-adapted digital Shearlet residual branch. The WHT and DCT branches establish orthogonal latent spaces with learnable spectral scaling and fixed soft-thresholding, while the Shearlet branch provides anisotropic, multi-directional feature decomposition that explicitly encodes the elongated edge structures characteristic of fire fronts. A learned SpectralFusion gate adaptively combines the WHT and DCT responses, and the Shearlet reconstruction is added as a residual. This three-branch design bears a loose structural analogy to transformer self-attention: the WHT and DCT branches provide complementary spectral representations that are adaptively fused, while the Shearlet branch contributes directional content through a residual pathway. Unlike self-attention, the proposed design relies on fixed mathematical transforms rather than learned projection operators, reducing parameter count and computational cost. Evaluated on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset, ShearFuse-UNet achieves an F1 score of 0.596 with only 267k parameters, outperforming a ResNet18-based U-Net (14M parameters, F1 = 0.589) and demonstrating a highly favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-off. Results on the Google Next-Day Wildfire Spread dataset further validate these findings across a different benchmark.

Ene Meco, Yingyi Luo, Emadeldeen Hamdan +2

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607 USA · US Forest Service, Pacific Wildland Fire Science Laboratory, Seattle, WA 98103 USA

U-Net Wildfire Forecasting Feature Fusion

Jun 10, 2026cs.CE

Neural-Parameterized Cellular Automata for Wildfire Spread

Traditional wildfire models rely on rigid, low-dimensional parameters and static fuel maps, frequently underpredicting fire spread. To address this weakness, we introduce a hybrid deep-learning parameterized Probabilistic Cellular Automata (CA) framework implemented in JAX. Our approach employs a Multi-Scale Convolutional Neural Network to dynamically generate spatially varying parameters that govern fire-spread probability, wind alignment, and slope influence. This hybrid design captures complex, nonlinear environmental interactions while preserving the physical interpretability of the underlying three-state CA. The JAX implementation enables hardware acceleration and gradient-based parameter calibration. Evaluated on six large-scale wildfires in the western United States, the model maintains IoU > 0.6 over 72-hour forecast horizons after a 10-day data assimilation window during which the model is fitted incrementally to observed perimeters; the resulting forecast is a conditional projection of fire growth under the suppression regime already ncoded in those observations.

Maksym Zhenirovskyy, Ion Matei, Rohit Vuppala +2

Fujitsu Research of America, 4655 Great America Pkwy, Santa Clara, 95124, CA, USA

Neural Cellular Automata Cellular Automata Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 14, 2026cs.LG

Does Your Wildfire Prediction Model Actually Work, or Just Score Well?

Wildfire prediction is important for early warning and resource allocation, yet existing Earth foundation models (Earth FMs) are pretrained for general atmospheric and geophysical objectives rather than wildfire forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce WILDFIRE-FM, the first foundation model pretrained specifically for wildfire prediction using weather, active-fire observations, topography, vegetation, and static environmental data. However, introducing a domain-specific backbone alone does not solve the evaluation problem: wildfire events are sparse in space and time, making transfer conclusions highly sensitive to matching rules and evaluation settings. To address this problem, we introduce a fixed-contract evaluation framework with two controlled checks: a fixed-output check for matching-rule effects and a fixed-feature check for head-selection effects. Under matched contracts, we compare WILDFIRE-FM with ten Earth-FM baselines across occupancy, spread, retrieval, and regression tasks. Our results show that wildfire transfer conclusions depend strongly on evaluation design and task formulation. We hope this framework and WILDFIRE-FM provide a foundation for future wildfire-specific Earth-FM research and benchmarking. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Wildfire-fm-evaluation-contracts-5AE9/.

Yangshuang Xu, Yuyang Dai, Liling Chang +2

Florida State University · Northeastern University

Geospatial Foundation Models Wildfire Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 12, 2026cs.LG

PyroAdapt: Adapting Wildfire Prediction under Spatial Heterogeneity and Temporal Shift

Prediction of wildfire occurrence is a rare-event problem compounded by spatial heterogeneity and temporal distribution shift, as fire occurrences are vastly outnumbered by non-occurrences, and predictor--fire relationship varies across space and time. Models trained on historical fire data may perform poorly under new conditions and require adaptation to the target distribution before operational use. We propose PyroAdapt, a pretrain--retrieve--rank framework that adapts a pretrained model to target conditions by retrieving historical locations with similar conditions and fine-tuning on the retrievals through risk ranking. For spatial adaptation, we condition risk on terrain, ecoregion embeddings, and fire rates, accounting for spatial context in the retrieval, and learn risk ordering from same-day fire--nonfire cell pairs. We compare direct ranking, residual pairwise DPO (RDPO), and selective ranking through a unified score-gap formulation that characterizes their gradient allocation. Over California (discretized into 666 0.25x0.25 grid cells), these objectives raise daily average precision from 21.62% for continued focal fine-tuning to 24.35--24.57%, and Top5% recall from 18.70% to 22.11--22.79%. Under a fixed daily detection budget of 34 cells (5% area), selective ranking captures 344 additional positive cell--days. For fires in the top 5%/10%/20% of dry matter consumption, selective ranking raises recall by 39.70/28.18/20.50 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, rolling evaluations over Yosemite show that the gains from ranking persist under temporal distribution shift. Together, these results show that PyroAdapt prioritizes the most fire-prone locations under a daily budget constraint and detects more extreme fire events.

Enyi Jiang, Wu Sun

Siebel School of Computing and Data Science, University of Illiois at Urbana-Champaign · Computer Science, Stanford University · Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science

Learning to Rank Domain Adaptation Wildfire Forecasting OOD Generalization Spatiotemporal Forecasting

May 11, 2026cs.LG

Set Prediction for Next-Day Active Fire Forecasting

Accurate next-day active fire forecasts can support early warning, disaster response, forest risk assessment, and downstream estimation of fire-related carbon emissions. Existing machine learning approaches to wildfire forecasting typically predict wildfire danger or fire probability on kilometre-scale daily grids, which is useful for regional warning but does not directly represent localized fire events. We propose Wildfire Ignition Set Predictor (WISP), a query-based model that reformulates next-day active fire forecasting as point-set prediction. From 48 hours of covariates including meteorology, satellite vegetation products, static land, and fire history, WISP predicts a fixed-size ranked set of future active fire cluster centres on a 375 m grid across globally distributed regions. The model is trained end-to-end with Hungarian matching; to address the conflicting roles of the classification score in assignment, ranking, and query activation, we use asymmetric classification-localization weighting in matching and loss. We further construct a globally distributed, hourly, multi-source benchmark for this task. On a held-out test set spanning fire regions worldwide, the best WISP variant achieves 38.2% average precision (AP) for ranked fire-centre detections, covers 53.4% of fire cluster mass weighted by fire radiative power (FRP), and localizes 54.1% of observed clusters within 5 km. These results establish sparse set prediction as a viable formulation for high-resolution wildfire forecasting and provide a benchmark for future work in this regime.

Yuchen Bai, Georgios Athanasiou, Xin Yu +4

Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany · Orion Lab, National Technical University of Athens · University of Utah, Salt Lake City, USA +4

Wildfire Forecasting Set Prediction Forecasting Benchmarks Spatiotemporal Forecasting Structured Prediction

May 5, 2026cs.LG

Enabling Real-Time Training of a Wildfire-to-Smoke Map with Multilinear Operators

Wildfires are a major producer of fine particulate matter, impacting human health and the electrical grid. Accurately forecasting smoke impacts over long time scales incorporates fuel treatment strategies, natural fuel succession, and stochastic events like lightning strikes. However, predicting smoke for each fuel distribution with a forward simulation of a coupled fire-atmosphere model is computationally infeasible. Moreover, relatively simple fire models are tractable to run in many long-time scenarios but do not capture smoke transport. We use data-driven multilinear operators to predict a smoke concentration field from knowledge of the time since ignition for two quantities of interest: aerosol optical depth and smoke detection. Our method first computes the principal components of time-since-ignition and smoke concentration fields and then learns a map from powers of the input coefficients to the output coefficients. We apply our learned operator to smoke prediction in the Upper Rio Grande Watershed. After collecting training data, learning the approximation weights on a CPU takes less than 30 seconds, and each forward call takes less than 1 ms. On a proxy for aerosol optical depth, we obtain equal accuracy to Monte Carlo sampling with fewer than half as many coupled model calls. For smoke detection, we obtain an intersection-over-union (IoU) of 0.64 and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.95 on holdout data. Our method is significantly more accurate than the most similar published smoke classifier, which obtains an IoU and AUC of 0.15 and 0.61, respectively, on a 2015 bushfire in Australia.

Zachary Morrow, Joseph Crockett, John D. Jakeman +1

Sandia National Laboratories 1515 Eubank Blvd SE, Albuquerque, NM 87123

Surrogate Modeling Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Operator Learning

May 4, 2026cs.CV

Boundary-Aware Uncertainty Quantification for Wildfire Spread Prediction

Reliable wildfire spread prediction is vital for risk-aware emergency planning, yet most deep learning models lack principled uncertainty quantification (UQ). Further, for boundary-sensitive cases like wildfire spread, evaluating models with global metrics alone is often insufficient. To shift the focus of UQ evaluation toward a more operationally relevant approach, the Fire-Centered Evaluation Region (FCER) framework is introduced as a spatially conditioned protocol to characterize UQ within critical fire zones. Using FCER, an Ensemble is compared against an distilled single-pass student model on the WildfireSpreadTS dataset. The student model demonstrates comparable calibration and complementary uncertainty ranking in boundary-relevant regimes. Code is available at https://github.com/jonasvilhofunk/WildfireUQ-FCER

Jonas V. Funk

Independent Research 76199 Karlsruhe, Germany

Uncertainty Quantification Wildfire Forecasting Spatiotemporal Forecasting Uncertainty Calibration

Jan 16, 2026cs.LG

OpFML: Pipeline for ML-based Operational Inference

Machine learning models for climate and Earth science are becoming increasingly capable, yet model deployment into operational use remains a largely unaddressed challenge: general-purpose model-serving tools, such as MLflow and KServe, assume input data availability at the inference node, while data acquisition, failure handling, and preprocessing are trusted to a separate workflow. We present OpFML: Operational Forecasting with Machine Learning - a configurable pipeline integrating the four steps of operational inference into a single TOML-configured workflow: data consumption, contingency handling, preprocessing, and model inference. By consolidating these steps, OpFML removes the significant boilerplate code required for each new deployment. We demonstrate the pipeline on the operational forecasting of daily fire activity over southern Italy.

Shahbaz Alvi, Giusy Fedele, Gabriele Accarino +3

CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Lecce, 73100, Italy · Columbia University, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, USA · University of Salento,Department of Innovation Engineering, Lecce, 73100, Italy

Wildfire Forecasting Scientific ML

Jun 10, 2025cs.CV

CanadaFireSat: Toward high-resolution wildfire forecasting with multiple modalities

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around

\sim 0.1

°. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

Hugo Porta, Emanuele Dalsasso, Jessica L. McCarty +1

EPFL, Route des Ronquos 86, Sion, 1950, Wallis, Switzerland · Université Grenoble Alpes, Inria, CNRS, Grenoble INP, LJK, Grenoble, 38000, France · NASA Ames Research Center, Earth Science Division„ Moffett Field, California, 94035, USA

Wildfire Forecasting Forecasting Benchmarks Remote Sensing Spatiotemporal Forecasting