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Papers

Sep 14, 2026stat.ML

Shapley Value Estimation for Multi-Site Data with Blockwise-Missing Features

Shapley value (SV)-based methods are the prevailing framework for feature attribution in machine learning, yet existing population-level Shapley estimators generally assume that observations used to evaluate the coalitional game are fully observed under a common feature space. This assumption is routinely violated in multi-site studies across biomedicine, social science, and environmental monitoring, where institutions record different features under different protocols, producing systematic blockwise missingness across sources. We first show that the standard remedy of imputing missing features before computing Shapley values introduces systematic, coalition-dependent bias into the resulting attributions. We then propose \textbf{FUSHAP} (\textbf{Fu}sion \textbf{Sh}apley \textbf{A}ttribution from \textbf{P}artially-observed data), a method that leverages partially-observed auxiliary sites to reduce the variance of a preliminary single-site Shapley estimate without imputation. A permutation-based screening step detects and excludes sites whose data distributions are incompatible with the target population. In synthetic experiments, FUSHAP achieves 33--8×8\times lower MSE than the single-site estimator and 22--3×3\times lower MSE than imputation baselines without incurring imputation-induced bias, and the screening procedure identifies misaligned sites with 82%82\% power at moderate misalignment and 100%100\% for strong misalignment. On multi-site air quality and multi-center clinical data, FUSHAP reduces MSE by approximately 33--7×7\times relative to the single-site estimator; in the clinical application, standard imputation can increase MSE above the single-site baseline.
Siqi Li, Wangxuan Fan, Yiming Li +2
Aug 2, 2026cs.CV

Prompt-Driven Simulation with Feature Perturbation for Cross-Domain Few-Shot Object Detection

Data augmentation, which simulates diverse visual variations to expand the source distribution and induce synthetic domain shifts, is a simple yet effective strategy for mitigating severe domain shifts and limited labeled target data in cross-domain few-shot object detection (CD-FSOD). Existing approaches rely on conventional data augmentation, such as Color-Jitter, Mosaic, and background-centric adaptation (e.g., Domain-RAG), which are limited in modeling complex domain shifts and often lead to suboptimal performance. In this paper, we propose PSP-FSOD, a principled framework that integrates prompt-driven domain simulation with feature perturbation regularization to improve generalization in CD-FSOD. To enable controllable domain synthesis, we design a prompt-driven strategy that leverages the visual grounding capability of large VLMs to jointly model foreground and background variations, generating semantically consistent yet domain-diverse training samples. Moreover, we adopt a grounding-aware generation scheme that guides object placement and alleviates semantic-spatial misalignment, thereby improving foreground adaptation. To ensure training stability and robustness, we further introduce a noise-induced feature perturbation mechanism that injects Gaussian noise into multi-scale intermediate features with distribution correction, encouraging consistent predictions under perturbations and reducing reliance on domain-specific cues. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PSP-FSOD produces high-quality domain-diverse supervision and learns domain-invariant representations, consistently improving performance across CD-FSOD benchmarks.
Linhai Zhuo, Junxi Cai, Tianwen Qian +2
Jul 2, 2026cs.CV

Diagnosing Aerial-View Object Detectors with Foundational Image Generative Models

Recent advances in large-scale image generative models enable photorealistic scene synthesis with controllable attributes. Beyond data augmentation, their potential as diagnostic tools for trained vision systems remains unexplored in the aerial and remote sensing domains. We introduce a synthetic diagnostic framework for aerial-view vehicle detection that combines text-guided generation, attribute-controlled editing, and automated attribute verification to construct a controllable synthetic testbed. This enables fine-grained evaluation of pretrained detectors under diverse scene types and environmental conditions that are difficult to isolate in real datasets. Across three detection architectures and three real aerial datasets, synthetic scene-wise performance trends closely match real-world weaknesses. Guided by these diagnostics, targeted supplementation with small real datasets from the identified weak categories yields improvements of up to 13% AP50 while requiring substantially fewer additional samples than non-targeted augmentation. Our results show that controlled synthetic probing can predict real-domain performance gaps and guide efficient data collection. The proposed diagnostic framework is modular and can incorporate alternative generative or vision-language models as capabilities evolve. Our code and datasets are available here: https://humansensinglab.github.io/AVODDiag/
Stanislav Panev, Minhyek Jeon, Vaishnavi Khindkar +5
Jun 8, 2026cs.CL

Data Synthesis and Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning for Low-Resource NMT: A Case Study on Q'eqchi' Mayan

Neural machine translation for digitally low-resource Indigenous languages is often hindered by extreme data scarcity, prompting reliance on extractive web-scraping. To ensure data sovereignty, this study introduces a data synthesis methodology to bootstrap NMT models without scraping target-language parallel text. Focusing on Q'eqchi' Mayan, we transformed community-sourced dictionaries into a massive synthetic corpus, utilizing Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) via LoRA adapters on an mT5-base model. In-domain evaluation demonstrates high structural acquisition (BLEU 42.02), proving that synthetic constraints effectively teach complex agglutinative morphology and VOS word order. However, evaluation against an organic glossary reveals a structural-semantic gap (BLEU 0.59), where the model maintains grammatical integrity but lacks the lexical grounding of natural language. The model exhibits overfitting to the constrained structural variance of the synthetic templates; despite high semantic entropy in the pipeline, it struggles with the syntactic fluidity of natural language, forcing organic inputs into rigid learned patterns. Furthermore, an ablation study utilizing a Multi-Task Learning architecture resulted in negative transfer, suggesting that auxiliary tasks competed for limited parameter capacity within the LoRA adapters, causing over-optimization for synthetic markers at the expense of organic flexibility. Ultimately, we establish that synthetic bootstrapping is a highly effective structural primer, but requires authentic data for semantic refinement via Curriculum Learning.
Alexander Chulzhanov, Soeren Eberhardt, Arjun Mukherjee
Jul 2, 2026cs.LG

Gaming Consensus: Coordinated Manipulation in Crowdsourced Fact-Checking

Crowdsourced fact-checking systems have been adopted by major social media companies such as X, Meta, TikTok and Google with the aim of combating misleading information at scale without relying on centralized editorial control. These systems have been developed around a common underlying concept: a bridging mechanism that identifies notes flagging misleading information when they receive support from people with different perspectives rather than simple majority support. To our knowledge the only publicly disclosed bridging algorithms deployed for fact-checking are based on matrix factorization, as deployed by both X and Meta, augmented with additional components addressing abuse, targeted manipulation, and contributor brigades. This work examines the core matrix factorization portion of these systems, presenting theoretical and empirical evaluations of the degree to which coordinated users could vote strategically by leveraging the latent representations to fabricate the appearance of synthetic consensus within the bridging mechanism. Using historic production data, we find that up to 10.7% of lower quality notes could be manipulated above consensus thresholds using less than 10 ratings. We complement these findings with a theoretical analysis, revealing counterintuitively that rating a note as "Not Helpful" can increase its helpfulness score, as well as a cost model quantifying manipulation effort. We have developed and deployed mitigations within X's Community Notes algorithm to address synthetic consensus.
Nikil Roashan Selvam, Jay Baxter, Sophie Hilgard +4
Feb 4, 2025cs.LG

Hierarchical Sparse Bayesian Multitask Learning for Disease Prediction in Pooled Microbiome Studies

This paper proposes a hierarchical Bayesian multitask learning model that is applicable to the general multi-task binary classification learning problem where the model assumes a shared sparsity structure across different tasks. We derive a computationally efficient inference algorithm based on variational inference to approximate the posterior distribution. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach on various synthetic datasets and for predicting human health status based on microbiome profile. Our analysis incorporates data pooled from multiple microbiome studies, along with a comprehensive comparison with other benchmark methods. Results in synthetic datasets show that the proposed approach has superior support recovery property when the underlying regression coefficients share a common sparsity structure across different tasks. Our experiments on microbiome classification demonstrate the utility of the method in extracting informative taxa while providing well-calibrated predictions with uncertainty quantification and achieving competitive performance in terms of prediction metrics. Notably, despite the heterogeneity of the pooled datasets (e.g., different experimental objectives, laboratory setups, sequencing equipment, patient demographics), our method delivers robust results.
Haonan Zhu, Andre R. Goncalves, Camilo Valdes +10
Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

MedFlow: Class-Aware Multi-Scale Generation for Medical Time-Series Synthesis

Synthetic medical time-series generation can alleviate data scarcity and support the development of reliable clinical prediction models. However, existing methods mainly focus on matching the overall distribution and temporal dynamics of real data, which does not necessarily ensure strong downstream utility on imbalanced medical datasets. Clinically informative patterns often occur at heterogeneous temporal scales, while rare minority-class characteristics can be obscured by dominant population patterns. To address these challenges, we propose MedFlow, a class-aware multi-scale flow matching framework for medical time-series synthesis. MedFlow employs a vector-quantized multi-scale tokenizer to represent medical sequences at complementary temporal resolutions, capturing both coarse clinical trends and fine-grained dynamics. We further introduce Token Marginal Guidance, which incorporates class-conditional token statistics directly into the flow matching process to steer generation toward class-specific regions of the learned tokens. This mechanism strengthens minority-class patterns, while preserving the global and tail distributions of real data. Experiments on four public datasets covering electronic health records, EEG, and ECG signals demonstrate that MedFlow consistently outperforms recent state-of-the-art diffusion-based baselines across downstream prediction tasks. On average, it improves AUPRC by 5.8%, reduces Context-FID by 88.6%, and achieves 3.8×\times higher sampling throughput.
Yanhao Huang, Shibo Feng, Wanjin Feng +2
Aug 30, 2026cs.CL

Generating Clinical Vignettes that Preserve Cognitive Formulations

Large language models can generate fluent clinical case vignettes, but fluency alone does not ensure fidelity to a specifiable clinical structure. We introduce FORMA, a theory-grounded framework that compiles a cognitive model of a disorder into a directed weighted graph, samples a person-specific configuration of that graph, and validates whether the generated vignette preserves the specified components and causal links. We instantiate FORMA on Posttraumatic Stress Disorder using the Ehlers and Clark cognitive model, generating 16,500 vignettes across 500 personas, 11 generation models, and three ablation conditions. Evaluation combines an external edge-recovery probe, two clinical experts, a scaled LLM judge, and a clinician user study with 100 licensed practitioners. The cognitive graph is recoverable from full-condition vignettes (MCC = +0.41, AUC = 0.70) but not from zero-shot generation (MCC = +0.01, AUC = 0.50). Experts rate full vignettes substantially higher than zero-shot alternatives, and clinicians perceive them to be human-written 85% of the time, compared with 22% for zero-shot. FORMA also reduces demographic disparity in perceived quality by 1.5-7x. These results show that cognitive formulation can serve as an auditable specification for scalable synthetic clinical text generation. A repository with the data and code is available online: https://github.com/Amit-Oren/FORMA.
Amit Oren, Nimrod Hertz-Palmor, Dean Ariel +1
Jul 25, 2026eess.IV

PriSAR: 3D Geometric-Prior-Guided Diffusion for Parameter-Controlled SAR Image Generation

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image generation can mitigate data scarcity, but controllablegeneration under sparse observation angles remains difficult. Recent SAR generative studies im-prove texture realism, yet explicit geometry-aware control is still limited. This paper studiesthe focused and verifiable setting of intermediate-azimuth completion: 3D-model-derived geo-metric priors guide a diffusion model to synthesize the views missing from sparse-angle trainingdata. GeoDiff-SAR constructs a lightweight multi-bounce ray-tracing prior, encodes the result-ing point cloud, and fuses it with text conditioning while adapting Stable Diffusion 3.5 Mediumthrough low-rank adaptation. On a real four-category aircraft dataset, GeoDiff-SAR reaches anSSIM of 0.812 and azimuth consistency of 0.940, compared with 0.738 and 0.782 for the text-conditioned SD3.5 Medium baseline. The same sparse-angle protocol on five MSTAR vehicleclasses yields an SSIM of 0.878 and azimuth consistency of 0.917. These results support theconclusion that a lightweight 3D geometric prior improves viewpoint adherence for controllableSAR generation; it is intended as generation guidance rather than high-fidelity electromagneticreconstruction.
Fan Zhang, Xuanting Wu, Fei Ma +2
Jul 23, 2026cs.AI

EmoAgent-R1: Towards Multimodal Emotion Understanding with Reinforcement Learning-based Dynamic Agent Specialization

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have achieved impressive performance in multimodal emotion recognition (MER) tasks and lifted MER to a new level that is complex emotion understanding with advanced video understanding abilities and natural language description. However, existing MLLM-based methods often use a fixed prompt to perceive the emotions, ignoring the dynamicity and complexity of the emotion source in the multimodal inputs. To address these issues, we propose a novel Reinforcement Learning-based Dynamic Agent Specialization framework (\textbf{EmoAgent-R1}) to optimize the emotion recognition, reasoning, and generalization abilities of an MLLM with dynamic agent specialization based on reinforcement learning. Specifically, we first adopt a cold start strategy to endow an MLLM with preliminary emotion recognition, reasoning, and agent routing ability by training with synthetic answer-conditioned chain-of-thought data and agent routing data. Then, we further train the MLLM with reinforcement learning to perceive emotions in a two-step agentic workflow with agent selection and agent specialization. To effectively train EmoAgent-R1, we propose a novel Progressive Group-Relative Policy Optimization (P-GRPO) to combine group-based relative advantages with a PMI-inspired progressive token-level modulation to transform sparse rewards into fine-grained learning signals, mitigating the coarse-grained uniform credit assignment issue in GRPO. Extensive experiments on MER benchmarks demonstrate the superiority of our EmoAgent-R1 in stronger emotion reasoning performance and improved optimization stability.
Lihuang Fang, Yuchen Zou, kebing Jin +1
Jul 9, 2026cs.CL

Diarization-Guided Qwen-ASR Adaptation for Multilingual Two-Speaker Conversational Speech

This paper describes our self-designed system for Task 1 of the MLC-SLM 2026 Challenge for multilingual two-speaker conversational speech. The system combines a modular speaker diarization front end with a challenge-adapted Qwen3-ASR-1.7B recognizer. The diarization front end performs voice activity detection, subsegment generation, CAMPPlus speaker embedding extraction, two-speaker spectral clustering, and RTTM-based audio segmentation. The resulting speaker-attributed segments are grouped by language or region and decoded by the adapted ASR model. For ASR adaptation, we first perform supervised full fine-tuning on the official training data, then apply LoRA fine-tuning with synthetic speech generated by a three-pipeline TTS-based synthetic speech augmentation framework, and finally refine the model using GRPO reinforcement learning with rewards based on WER/CER and penalties for hallucination, repetition, and length deviation. On the official development set, the full system achieves an average tcpMER of 23.70, reducing the error rate by 6.83 absolute points relative to the released Qwen-ASR-1.7B performance. On the final evaluation set, the system achieves an average tcpMER of 17.97. Ablation results show that supervised fine-tuning provides the largest gain, while synthetic-speech LoRA adaptation and reinforcement learning further improve robustness.
Hao Wu, RongQi Han, Zhen Wang +2
Jul 8, 2026cs.CV

SpiS-GAN: Spiral-Modulated Handwriting Synthesis with Star Operation

Training robust handwriting recognition (HTR) systems requires massive amounts of annotated data, which is often difficult to acquire. While synthetic handwriting generation offers a practical solution to expand training sets, existing models struggle with several core issues. First, previous approaches, even MLP-based models fail to effectively trace cursive handwriting due to fixed-grid spatial receptive field. Second, their CNN-relied discriminators usually lose structural details through aggressive downsampling, making broken connections difficult to detect. Third, existing architectures are either limited to linear feature interactions or too expensive for high-resolution synthesis. Finally, existing approaches lack explicit edge constraints, often resulting in blurred stroke boundaries. To address these challenges, this study proposes a Spiral-Modulated Handwriting Synthesis framework based on Generative Adversarial Networks (SpiS-GAN). Our generator employs Star-Spiral Blocks combining proposed Modulated Elliptical SpiralFC with the star operation to capture spatial relationships and efficiently follow complex handwriting stroke trajectories, while a Spiral-Modulated discriminator is introduced for multi-domain flaws detection. Additionally, we introduce a Sobel-Regularized Edge Reconstruction Loss that provides edge guidance, ensuring every character remains clear and legible. Evaluations on the English and Vietnamese datasets demonstrate that SpiS-GAN significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art models. The generated images are highly authentic, accurately preserve the original writer's style across languages, and successfully lower error rates when training downstream HTR systems.
Nguyen Duy Hieu, Dang Hoai Nam, Pham Hoang Giap +2
Jun 4, 2026cs.LG

TS-ICL: A Flexible Time-Indexed Foundation Model for Time Series via In-Context Learning

Foundation models mark a profound paradigm shift in time series modeling, with task-specific models being superseded by general-purpose zero-shot models. Yet, current approaches primarily focus on forecasting, while real-world time series are often irregularly and partially observed, requiring models that can jointly forecast, impute missing values, and handle degraded sampling conditions. To address these challenges, we introduce TS-ICL, a novel probabilistic In-Context Learning encoder--regressor Transformer that unifies forecasting and imputation. TS-ICL formulates time series tasks as timestamp-aligned regression and naturally incorporates covariates by training on synthetic dependency structures generated from a novel causal data prior. Empirically, TS-ICL achieves a new state-of-the-art in imputation, while remaining competitive with leading forecasting foundation models across both univariate and covariate-aware benchmarks. It shows particularly strong performance in forecasting with partially observed look-back windows.
Etienne Le Naour, Tahar Nabil, Adrien Petralia
May 20, 2026cs.CL

The Illusion of Intervention: Your LLM-Simulated Experiment is an Observational Study

Large language models (LLMs) show potential as simulators of human behavior, offering a scalable way to study responses to interventions. However, because LLMs are trained largely on observational data, interventions in experiments with LLM-simulated synthetic users can induce unintended shifts in latent user attributes, causing user drift where the implicit simulated population differs across treatment conditions, potentially distorting effect estimates. We formalize the confounding or selection bias that can arise due to user drift and show how intervention-dependent shifts can inflate or attenuate observed differences in user responses under intervention. To diagnose confounding, we propose using negative control outcomes--attributes that should remain invariant under intervention--to identify distribution shifts across intervention conditions, providing evidence of user drift. To mitigate drift, we study adjusting the persona specification by eliciting additional confounders, finding that targeted, setting-relevant confounders can substantially reduce bias across survey-style and multi-turn agent evaluations.
Victoria Lin, Taedong Yun, Maja Matarić +3
May 7, 2026cs.CV

iTRIALSPACE: Programmable Virtual Lesion Trials for Controlled Evaluation of Lung CT Models

We introduce iTRIALSPACE, a programmable evaluation framework for controlled assessment of lung CT models. Standard benchmarks are static retrospective collections that entangle lesion size, lobe prevalence, anatomy, and acquisition context, making it difficult to determine what structurally drives model accuracy. iTRIALSPACE addresses this limitation by composing real clinical CTs and lesion profiles into controlled virtual lesion trials through a four-stage pipeline: multidataset nodule profiling, explicit trial specification, anatomy-aware mask insertion, and ControlNet-conditioned CT synthesis. The framework is built on a unified 54-attribute nodule-profile dataset spanning 13,140 annotated nodules from seven public CT sources and instantiated as 13 trial modes. We evaluate iTRIALSPACE in a 55,469-sample Virtual Lesion Study spanning three medical VLMs, four spatialguidance conditions, and three clinical tasks. Across all 13 modes, the synthetic substrate remains within the real-to-real FID baseline, and synthetic performance rankings transfer strongly to real clinical data (ρρ = 0.93, p < 10−15^{-15}). Controlled trial modes expose findings unavailable to fixed-distribution benchmarks, including shortcut-driven size prediction collapse under lobe-equalized sampling and hostto-donor variance ratios of 8.9x and 3.3x in twin-cross analysis. These results position iTRIALSPACE as an auditable evaluation infrastructure for controlled, falsifiable testing beyond static retrospective benchmarks.
Fakrul Islam Tushar, Umme Hafsa Momy, Joseph Y. Lo +1
Apr 18, 2026stat.ME

A proposal for PU classification under Non-SCAR using clustering and logistic model

The present study aims to investigate a cluster cleaning algorithm that is both computationally simple and capable of solving the PU classification when the SCAR condition is unsatisfied. A secondary objective of this study is to determine the robustness of the LassoJoint method to perturbations of the SCAR condition. In the first step of our algorithm, we obtain cleaning labels from 2-means clustering. Subsequently, we perform logistic regression on the cleaned data, assigning positive labels from the cleaning algorithm with additional true positive observations. The remaining observations are assigned the negative label. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing 11 real data sets from machine learning repositories and a synthetic set. The findings obtained from this study demonstrate the efficacy of the clustering algorithm in scenarios where the SCAR condition is violated and further underscore the moderate robustness of the LassoJoint algorithm in this context.
Konrad Furmanczyk, Kacper Paczutkowski
Sep 12, 2025cs.LG

Multi-Dictionary Learning for Low Rank Sparse Coding

Sparse dictionary coding represents signals as linear combinations of a few dictionary atoms. It has been applied to images, time series, graph signals and multi-way spatio-temporal data by jointly employing temporal and spatial dictionaries. Data-agnostic analytical dictionaries, such as the discrete Fourier transform, wavelets and graph Fourier, have seen wide adoption due to efficient implementations and good practical performance. On the other hand, dictionaries learned from data offer sparser and more accurate solutions but require learning of both the dictionaries and the coding coefficients. This becomes especially challenging for multi-dictionary scenarios since encoding coefficients correspond to all atom combinations from the dictionaries. To address this challenge, we propose a low-rank coding model for 2-dictionary scenarios and study its data complexity. Namely, we establish upper and lower bounds on the number of samples needed to learn dictionaries that generalize to unseen samples from the same distribution. We propose an alternating convex optimization solution, called AODL, which employs alternating optimization between the sparse coding matrices and the learned dictionaries. We demonstrate its quality for data reconstruction and missing value imputation in both synthetic and real-world datasets. For a fixed reconstruction quality, AODL learns up to 90%90\% sparser solutions compared to non-low-rank and analytical (fixed) dictionary baselines. In addition, the learned dictionaries reveal interpretable insights into patterns from training samples.
Boya Ma, Abram Magner, Maxwell McNeil +1
May 31, 2025cs.CV

XYZ-IBD: Benchmarking Robust 6D Object Pose Estimation under Real-World Industrial Complexity

While current 6D pose estimation benchmarks have reached near-saturation on household objects, they often fail to capture the stochastic and optical complexities of industrial environments. We introduce XYZ-IBD, a high-precision benchmark for object detection and 6D pose estimation specifically designed for industrial bin-picking. XYZ-IBD addresses the domain gap by providing 75 multi-view real-world scenes containing approximately 273k annotated instances of metallic, symmetrical, and specular objects. Unlike existing datasets, our benchmark features high-density stochastic stacking and multi-instance ambiguity, reflecting authentic robotic manipulation challenges. We employ a rigorous multi-stage and semi-automatic annotation pipeline, ensuring sub-millimeter annotation accuracy. The annotations are validated through our designed error quantification scheme, securing the reliability of the annotation quality. In addition to real-world evaluation data, we provide a large-scale complementary synthetic training set that is rendered under a realistic bin-picking simulation. Benchmarking state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods for 2D detection and 6D pose estimation reveals a significant performance degradation compared to standard household benchmarks, highlighting the unsolved challenges of industrial vision. XYZ-IBD establishes a new frontier for robust pose estimation in complex, high-occlusion, and reflective scenarios. The dataset and benchmark are publicly available at https://xyz-ibd.github.io.
Junwen Huang, Jiaqi Hu, Peter KT Yu +3
Oct 1, 2022cs.LG

Parametrized Power-Iteration Clustering for Directed Graphs

Vertex-level clustering for directed graphs (digraphs) remains challenging as edge directionality breaks the key assumptions underlying popular spectral methods, which also incur the overhead of eigen-decomposition. This paper proposes Parametrized Power-Iteration Clustering (ParPIC), a random-walk-based clustering method for weakly connected digraphs. This builds over the Power-Iteration Clustering paradigm, which uses the rows of the iterated diffusion operator as a data embedding. ParPIC has three important features: the use of parametrized reversible random walk operators, the automatic tuning of the diffusion time, and the efficient truncation of the final embedding, which produces low-dimensional data representations and reduces complexity. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world graphs demonstrate that ParPIC achieves competitive clustering accuracy with improved scalability relative to spectral and teleportation-based methods.
Gwendal Debaussart-Joniec, Harry Sevi, Matthieu Jonckheere +1
May 13, 2026cs.LG

Data Difficulty and the Generalization--Extrapolation Tradeoff in LLM Fine-Tuning

Data selection during supervised fine-tuning (SFT) can critically change the behavior of large language models (LLMs). Although existing work has studied the effect of selecting data based on heuristics such as perplexity, difficulty, or length, the reported findings are often inconsistent or context-dependent. In this work, we systematically study the role of data difficulty in fine-tuning from both empirical and theoretical perspectives, and find that there is no universally optimal difficulty level; rather, its effectiveness depends on the dataset size. We show that for a fixed data budget, there exists an optimal data difficulty for SFT, and that this optimal difficulty shifts toward harder data as the data budget increases. To explain this phenomenon, we conduct controlled synthetic experiments that reveal a simple underlying mechanism: the interplay between the (in-distribution) generalization gap and the extrapolation gap. We further support this mechanism through a theoretical analysis using PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds. Overall, our results clarify how data size and difficulty jointly affect the trade-off between generalization and extrapolation in SFT, providing guidance for difficulty-based data selection under certain model and data conditions.
Siyuan Liu, Tinghong Chen, Xinghan Li +2
Jun 20, 2026eess.SP

Anticipating the Optimism Gap: Predicting Distribution-Shift Degradation of RF-Impairment Detectors from In-Distribution Statistics

Detectors for GNSS radio-frequency impairments (jamming, spoofing, multipath) are usually reported with a single AUC measured on the distribution they were tuned on. That number falls once conditions move, and the size of the drop is rarely known in advance because labelled field data is scarce. We ask whether this optimism can be predicted before any out-of-distribution data is seen. On an open, parameter-grounded synthetic testbed with a tunable severity shift, we evaluate thirteen detectors (five physics baselines, full-feature logistic regression and multilayer perceptrons, and single-feature learned controls) across four impairment classes. The optimism gap, the difference between in-distribution and shifted AUC, grows monotonically as the shift deepens (mean Spearman correlation 0.50). It is driven by how many observables a detector uses rather than by whether it is learned, and it varies systematically by class. Centrally, a ridge model built only from in-distribution score statistics predicts the gap for a detector it has never seen (R^2 = 0.47) and for an impairment class it has never seen (R^2 = 0.46); both are significant against a 2000-fold permutation null (p < 0.001) and survive removing the feature that is, by construction, part of the target. The headline findings are synthetic. We then run the pre-registered protocol on three open field corpora: on Jammertest 2024 the cross-detector prediction holds (R^2 = 0.11, p = 0.009), and on SatGrid, whose spoofer power sweep gives a calibrated severity axis, in-distribution AUC overstates higher-severity AUC by up to 0.22 and to the point of sign inversion, with in-distribution AUC and realised gap perfectly rank-correlated (Spearman rho = 1.0). The mechanism survives contact with real data, at smaller magnitude than in simulation. We release the testbed, a software-receiver front end, the ingest adapters and the protocol.
Chakshu Baweja
Jun 5, 2026cs.CL

Beyond Individual Personas: Aligning Synthetic Dialogue to Population-Level Behavior Distributions

Synthetic dialogue corpora are increasingly used as proxies for target dialogue data, yet persona-grounded generators optimize individual conversations rather than corpus composition, yielding locally plausible dialogues with distorted population-level behavior mixes. We introduce GroupPersona, a framework that aligns synthetic dialogue corpora to the behavior distribution of a reference corpus. GroupPersona turns population statistics into generation controls: it separates each dialogue's core behavioral signature from predictable side effects, and uses the resulting behavioral groups to condition user agents on the interaction patterns that define the reference population. We evaluate GroupPersona on four corpora crossing two dialogue sources, assistant-style and Reddit-derived, with two construction variants: structure-preserving and variation-enhanced. GroupPersona lowers Jensen-Shannon divergence between synthetic and reference distributions over 12 behavior attributes from 0.234 to 0.177 relative to the strongest average baseline, a 24.4% reduction, and is best or tied-best on all four corpora while preserving structural alignment. It also achieves the closest calibration to reference-conversation quality scores, reducing mean absolute deviation from the reference-conversation profile to 0.63 versus 0.91 for the next-best baseline.
Xinyi Liu, Rinat Khaziev, Hooshang Nayyeri +3
May 8, 2026q-bio.MN

Graph neural network explanations reveal a topological signature of disease-associated hubs in biological networks

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly used to model biological systems, yet the reliability of post-hoc explanation methods for recovering meaningful molecular mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we systematically evaluate four widely used approaches: Saliency Attribution (SA), Integrated Gradients (IG), GNNExplainer, and Layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP) for identifying disease-relevant structure in breast cancer RNA-seq data projected onto a protein-protein interaction network. Using synthetic benchmarks with known ground-truth motifs, we show that explanation methods recover distinct signal organizations: SA performs best for sparse single-node drivers, whereas IG and LRP preferentially recover distributed pathway-like and cascade-like signals. In TCGA BRCA data, we identify a consistent topological signature of disease-associated hubs in which attribution peaks in the immediate 1-hop neighborhood and decays across successive network shells, a pattern most pronounced for IG and LRP and associated with strong enrichment of known cancer hubs. We further observe a trade-off between local hub enrichment and global gene ranking performance, with IG optimizing local enrichment and SA achieving superior global discrimination. Motivated by these complementary behaviors, we introduce a framework combining a shell-based hub score with consensus ranking across explainers. Consensus scores improve prioritization of canonical cancer genes (TP53, BRCA1, ESR1, MYC), reduce dependence on node degree, and, especially when tuned, outperform individual methods. Pathway enrichment further reveals improved recovery of biologically coherent cancer programs, including ERBB2, RTK, MAPK, immune, and cytokine signaling. Together, these results demonstrate that topology-aware integration of graph explanations can improve biological interpretability and biologically relevant molecular recovery.
Kyle Higgins, Ivan Laponogov, Dennis Veselkov +1
May 29, 2026cs.LG

Learning Parametric Nitrogen Fertilizer Response Curves Using Neuro Symbolic Regression

Accurately modeling crop response to Nitrogen (N) fertilization is a fundamental challenge in precision agriculture, as it impacts both economic returns and environmental sustainability. Existing approaches either rely on predefined parametric forms or opaque machine learning models, limiting their ability to interpret or discover site-specific functional relationships from data. In this work, we propose a neuro symbolic regression (SR) approach to learn parametric N-response curves without assuming a predefined functional form. Our approach integrates a transformer-based Multi-Set Symbolic Skeleton Prediction strategy, enabling the discovery of shared functional structures across multiple subdomains or management zones (MZs). By constructing diverse input subsets and enforcing consistency across them, the method recovers robust symbolic skeletons that are subsequently fitted to observed data using a genetic algorithm. This framework was first evaluated on synthetic one-dimensional problems to assess its robustness under varying levels of epistemic uncertainty. The results demonstrate the ability of the proposed SR approach to recover correct expressions even in data-scarce regimes. In this work, we present the results of applying our method to real-world winter wheat data, learning distinct parametric N-response curves for different MZs within a field. The results show that the discovered expressions not only achieve lower fitting errors than traditional models such as quadratic-plateau and exponential functions, but also capture diverse functional behaviors across spatial regions. This demonstrates the potential that neuro SR has to enable the discovery of site-specific agronomic relationships and support informed decision-making in precision agriculture.
Giorgio Morales, John Sheppard
Sep 25, 2025cs.LG

GraphPFN: A Prior-Data Fitted Graph Foundation Model

Graph foundation models face several fundamental challenges including transferability across diverse domains and data scarcity, which calls into question the very feasibility of creating such models. However, despite similar challenges, the tabular domain has recently witnessed the emergence of the first successful foundation models such as TabPFN. These models are based on the prior-data fitted networks (PFN) framework, in which models are pretrained on carefully designed synthetic datasets to make predictions in an in-context learning setting. Recently, G2T-FM, a framework that converts graph node-level tasks into tabular tasks, has made the first step towards adopting PFNs for graphs, yet it is limited to hand-crafted features and was never pretrained on graph data. In this work, we make the next step by proposing GraphPFN, a PFN-based model designed and pretrained specifically for graph node-level tasks. Following the PFN framework, we first design a prior distribution of synthetic attributed graphs by using a novel combination of multi-level stochastic block models and a preferential attachment process for structure generation and graph-aware structured causal models for attribute generation. Then, we augment the tabular foundation model LimiX with attention-based graph neighborhood aggregation layers and train it on millions of synthetic graphs sampled from our prior. On diverse real-world graph datasets with node-level tasks, GraphPFN achieves state-of-the-art results in both in-context learning and finetuning regimes, outperforming G2T-FM, prior GFMs, and task-specific GNNs trained from scratch. More broadly, GraphPFN shows the potential of PFN-based models for building graph foundation models.
Dmitry Eremeev, Oleg Platonov, Gleb Bazhenov +2
Jul 21, 2026cs.CV

γγ-Bridge: A Look-Parametric Diffusion Bridge

Multiplicative Gamma noise is a signal-dependent degradation in coherent imaging; synthetic aperture radar (SAR) despeckling is its most prominent real-world instance. Existing diffusion denoisers parameterize their forward process by abstract signal-to-noise schedules rather than by the physical look number LL, so different deployment scenarios typically require separately trained models, and transfer from synthetic Gamma training to real SAR remains challenging without clean ground truth. We introduce γγ-Bridge, a look-parametric bridge whose schedule L(t)L(t) connects the noisy observation at LobsL_{obs} to the clean limit through exact multiplicative Gamma marginals. Its closed-form Gamma--Lévy reverse posterior admits both stochastic and deterministic processes, while observation conditioning and a two-step consistency loss stabilize multi-step inference in the low-SNR single-look regime. Because bridge time directly represents LL, one conditioned network can smart-start from any admissible input look and stop at a target look number. These two orthogonal controls enable zero-shot restoration over the full admissible grid after training only at Lobs=1L_{obs} = 1 on natural images with synthetic Gamma corruption. Combined with a homogeneous-patch look estimator, γγ-Bridge processes data from six spaceborne and airborne SAR sensors without sensor-specific fine-tuning, achieving leading results on standard synthetic benchmarks while providing physically interpretable input and output controls absent from prior denoisers. Codes are released \href{https://github.com/Teriri1999/GammaBridge}{here}.
Xuran Hu, Yujie Zhu, Tengxi Wang +2
Aug 2, 2026cs.CV

PlantRig - From Bones to Branches: Adaptation of Autoregressive Rigging Models for Plant Skeletal Reconstruction

Autoregressive rigging models such as UniRig and SkinTokens perform well on articulated characters, but their ability to generalize to plant structures remains largely unexplored, since plant topologies exhibit highly variable, non-canonical branching patterns that challenge learned skeletal priors. We evaluate these models for plant skeletal reconstruction using synthetic L-system-generated trees and real scanned data spanning monopodial, sympodial, whorled, and vine-like archetypes. Preliminary testing showed UniRig collapsing complex branching into near-linear chains, while SkinTokens preserved topology better but over-segmented branches and produced an unstable output space, so we focused on UniRig for its greater stability. Diagnosis traced the collapse to sampling-level suppression of branch tokens, and further analysis showed the frozen mesh encoder had limited sensitivity to structural variation, pointing to a geometric bottleneck in the tokenization pipeline rather than a purely learned bias. Building on these findings, we applied multi-round fine-tuning over multiple procedurally generated synthetic datasets. Across rounds, the model progressively recovered accurate branching topology and generalized beyond branch-only structures to plants with foliage, a harder case given the zero-thickness, mesh-normal-dependent geometry of leaves. The resulting model generalized well across diverse plant forms without leaf-specific architectural changes, indicating that targeted fine-tuning can substantially close the domain gap between character-rigging priors and plant skeletal structure. As such, our work points toward a viable path for automated plant rigging across both branch topology and foliage type, even those not considered in our findings.
Nathan Hu, Yang Yang, Fumio Okura
Jun 1, 2026cs.LG

A Biconvex Formulation for Stable Transport of Mixture Models with a Unique Solution

Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled framework for mapping between probability distributions. Despite extensive progress, applying OT to large-scale data remains computationally demanding, and the resulting pointwise transport plans are often difficult to interpret. We introduce Optimal Mixture Transport (OMT), a scalable framework that shifts the transport paradigm from individual samples to mixtures of subpopulations, reformulating the transport problem as a strictly biconvex optimization with a unique global minimizer. We further establish theoretical guarantees on the stability of the OMT map, showing that bounded perturbations of the underlying distributions lead to bounded changes in the transport plan. By formulating subpopulations as exponential-family distributions, OMT decouples computational complexity from the sample size, scaling solely with the number of mixture components. We demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of OMT on a wide range of synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets, including image data and large-scale single-cell RNA sequencing measurements.
Yeganeh Marghi, Kelly Jin, Uygar Sümbül
May 8, 2026cs.RO

123D: Unifying Multi-Modal Autonomous Driving Data at Scale

The pursuit of autonomous driving has produced one of the richest sensor data collections in all of robotics. However, its scale and diversity remain largely untapped. Each dataset adopts different 2D and 3D modalities, such as cameras, lidar, ego states, annotations, traffic lights, and HD maps, with different rates and synchronization schemes. They come in fragmented formats requiring complex dependencies that cannot natively coexist in the same development environment. Further, major inconsistencies in annotation conventions prevent training or measuring generalization across multiple datasets. We present 123D, an open-source framework that unifies such multi-modal driving data through a single API. To handle synchronization, we store each modality as an independent timestamped event stream with no prescribed rate, enabling synchronous or asynchronous access across arbitrary datasets. Using 123D, we consolidate eight real-world driving datasets spanning 3,300 hours and 90,000 kilometers, together with a synthetic dataset with configurable collection scripts, and provide tools for data analysis and visualization. We conduct a systematic study comparing annotation statistics and assessing each dataset's pose and calibration accuracy. Further, we showcase two applications 123D enables: cross-dataset 3D object detection transfer and reinforcement learning for planning, and offer recommendations for future directions. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/kesai-labs/py123d.
Daniel Dauner, Valentin Charraut, Bastian Berle +10
May 21, 2026cs.LG

A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

Accurate wind power forecasting requires reliable uncertainty quantification, yet most existing methods report a single predictive uncertainty that conflates epistemic and aleatoric sources. This paper applies the law of total variance to the joint setting of heteroscedastic neural network regression and Bayesian posterior approximation, deriving an explicit decomposition of total uncertainty (TU) into aleatoric (AU) and epistemic (EU) components. The resulting estimators are compatible with standard posterior-approximation methods and with ββ-NLL training to regulate the mean--variance learning trade-off. A wind power--specific evaluation framework is proposed to validate disentanglement without access to ground-truth uncertainty labels, comprising three modules: controlled synthetic experiments to verify responses to heteroscedastic noise and distribution shift; data-property--driven validation on a real-world wind turbine SCADA dataset; and dataset-size scaling experiments to examine the predicted asymptotic behavior of EU. Across synthetic and real-world experiments, the decomposed AU and EU components respond in theoretically consistent directions to noise structure, distributional shift, and training-scale variation, supporting the theoretical consistency and operational utility of the proposed decomposition and evaluation protocol.
Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. Muttaqi