Area Under The Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve

We study whether demonstration-curation metrics that detect defective training episodes also improve the downstream behavior-cloning policy that trains on the curated data. On a contact-rich LIBERO pick-and-place benchmark with a controlled structural defect (early gripper release during the carry phase), we find that the two quantities are sharply decoupled. The metric with the highest defect-detection AUROC (0.804) produces the worst curated policy (13.3% task success), while a metric with a substantially lower AUROC (0.638) produces a policy that nearly matches the oracle trained on ground-truth clean data (90.0% vs. 93.3%). We further show that five of the seven metrics we evaluate exploit episode length as a trivial proxy for the defect label, a confound that inflates reported AUROCs to near-perfect values and disappears once episode length is controlled. Across all conditions, the contaminated baseline succeeds on only 3.3% of rollouts, and the two best curation methods close this to within 3 percentage points of the 93.3% oracle ceiling. Our results argue that curation methods should be evaluated by the policy they produce, not the defects they flag, and that any curation benchmark must control for episode length before reporting detection accuracy. We release the testbed, all metric implementations, and the evaluation pipeline.

We ask whether structural properties of intermediate grid states predict whether a symbolic ARC-AGI solver will succeed, framed as a test of conditional mutual information I(X;Y|task) > 0. Across 44,800 runs spanning two architecturally distinct solvers (beam search and Stochastic DFS), 400 ARC tasks, 28 configurations per solver, and both training and evaluation splits, hand-crafted grid descriptors measured at 50% trajectory completion discriminate successful from failed runs within the same task (mean within-task best-feature AUC = 0.885, p < 0.001 under within-task label permutation). Most predictive content lies along a single grid-complexity axis. The result generalizes across solver architectures: a feature selected on one solver predicts success on the other with AUC 0.747-0.762 in all four transfer directions (p < 0.001, leakage controlled). On a pre-registered held-out set of 41 reliable tasks, the frozen feature n_components_final achieves AUC = 0.765 (95% CI [0.717, 0.810], p < 0.001), robust under task-clustered bootstrap resampling and cross-solver task collapsing. The signal is not explained by solver capacity (configuration-residualized AUC = 0.927 and 0.896 for beam search and SDFS, p < 0.001) and is only weakly coupled to score trajectories (R^2 approximately 0). Early stopping at 50% completion reduces beam-search compute by 33.6% while retaining 98.9% of solves; degenerate-trajectory detection reduces SDFS compute by 65.3% with no solve loss. Finally, on 229 of 400 evaluation tasks the DSL primitive library produces no valid transition from the input grid. This 0-step collapse is invariant to search budget and universally failed by beam search, indicating a DSL coverage limitation rather than a search-budget effect.

A small transformer encoder is trained to map Terminal-Wrench trajectories onto a unit sphere where embedding distance approximates the $L_1$ distance between reward and metadata signals. A linear probe on top of that embedding detects reward hacking on the cleaned test split with AUC $0.9467$ and TPR@5%FPR $0.8296$, matching the TW sanitized LLM-as-judge AUC ($0.9510$ on the cleaned split) and exceeding its TPR@5%FPR ($0.7130$ vs $0.8296$) on the same information condition, at roughly four orders of magnitude lower per-trajectory cost. The encoder is not a pure behavior reader: stripping natural-language reasoning from its input at probe time drops AUC to $0.6213$.

Radiology reports describe kidney lesions by type, size, enhancement, and attenuation, yet existing 3D methods predict only at the patient or organ level. We reformulate kidney CT characterization as a per-lesion set-prediction task: one model emits a variable number of lesions per kidney, each with four clinical attributes. We curated 2,619 CT volumes from 788 patients at one academic medical center, with multi-granularity side- and per-lesion labels, and used KiTS23 (489 cases) for zero-shot external validation. We propose \textbf{LesionDETR}, a DETR-style architecture with size-distance Hungarian matching and a hierarchical loss that aggregates per-slot outputs to side-level objectives. Across four input representations and six encoder initializations, two design choices dominate: a segmentation mask as an input channel, and same-domain abdominal pretraining (SuPreM); generic large-corpus pretraining is no better than random initialization. LesionDETR reaches bilateral side-level abnormality AUC $0.799 \pm 0.009$ on UF-Health and $0.817 \pm 0.072$ on KiTS23. A count-conditioned variant reaches per-lesion mAP $0.190 \pm 0.083$ on cystic lesions; rare solid-lesion AP stays at the noise floor, pointing to targeted data collection, not architecture, as the next bottleneck. The framework yields verified per-lesion predictions for downstream structured report generation.

The number of malware (either variant or novel) is rapidly increasing, making malware detection and mitigation a complex problem. One approach to improving malware mitigation is automatic detection and malware family classification. However, traditional malware detection methods cannot classify detected malware into their respective families, hindering effective malware mitigation. Consequently, this paper proposes a method to automate malware detection and classification of the detected malware into respective malware families. The proposed method uses feature fusion after extracting relevant malware features such as API calls and fixed and variable length n-grams with a customized feature selection method. Moreover, for the predictive model, a voting based approach is proposed for algorithm fusion. For the experimental evaluation of the proposed method, both binary and multi-class classification approaches are applied to the data set provided by Microsoft. Finally, the experimental results are compared with the state of the art. The experimental results indicate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach with an AUC of 0.989, accuracy of 99.72%, and a log loss of 0.01.

Self-harm is a major public health concern, but current surveillance relying on hospital presentations is inadequate due to the low sensitivity of diagnostic codes. Emergency Department (ED) triage notes, recorded at the initial point of contact, provide a succinct summary of presentations and an opportunity to identify self-harm. We developed a three-stage approach, augmenting traditional machine learning with large language model-based screening and evidence extraction to detect self-harm in ED triage notes. We assessed model transferability across three Australian hospitals. Our approach showed AUPRCs of 0.887 +/- 0.016 and 0.884 +/- 0.012 during internal and external validation. Prospectively, it achieved AUPRC of 0.881 +/- 0.008 at the development site, and 0.879 +/- 0.012 and 0.816 +/- 0.015 at two external sites without site-specific retraining. A key advantage of the approach is that it enables identification of the primary self-harm method with an accuracy of 95%, supporting more granular surveillance beyond binary classification.

Adaptive sensing strategies that selectively sample data are increasingly used in wearable health systems to improve prediction performance under limited data budgets, yet their benefits across individuals remain poorly understood. Here, we evaluate adaptive selection of time windows for model training under fixed measurement budgets across multiple sensing modalities, including heart rate, activity, and ecological momentary assessment (EMA), in a longitudinal wearable dataset. We quantify performance gains relative to random sampling using both area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and F1 score. Adaptive strategies yield substantial improvements in AUROC for participants with low baseline performance (with gains up to 0.7), while offering limited or negative gains for participants with strong baselines. Across modalities, adaptive gain is strongly inversely correlated with baseline performance (Pearson r = -0.67; Spearman p = -0.62). At the participant level, most individuals benefit in AUROC (60-80% across modalities), although improvements in F1 are smaller and less consistent. These findings show that adaptive sensing is not uniformly beneficial, but instead provides the greatest value in underperforming settings. Our results support selective deployment strategies that tailor adaptive sensing based on baseline performance to improve efficiency in wearable health monitoring.

Detecting subtle visual anomalies in images remains challenging, particularly when only normal samples are available a priori. Such unsupervised anomaly detection is typically solved by measuring feature similarity of a query patch to a memory of normal patches. However, similarity alone does not reveal how strongly a query patch violates the structure of the normal feature manifold. We propose a training-free Laplacian graph energy optimization formulation, named ANoCo that scores Anomaly by the cost of Non-Conformity of a query patch to align with a fixed normal manifold. For each query patch, we construct a bipartite query to normal graph weighted by cosine affinity, explicitly removing query-query and normal-normal edges to prevent evidence dilution. We formulate anomaly scoring as a convex Laplacian energy with anchored normal nodes, and solve in closed form. In particular, we do not use the optimized features themselves-the anomaly score is the magnitude of the update required to satisfy normality constraints, reframing the graph Laplacian as a non-conformity operator rather than a smoothing prior. The proposed method introduces no learnable parameters, message passing, or sampling, and has complexity comparable to a single linear solve. Across standard benchmarks, it delivers strong image-level AUROC, stable localization maps, and improved robustness over prior methods, demonstrating the effectiveness of using optimization-induced feature drift as anomaly measure.

Long-context language models now advertise context windows up to millions of tokens, yet evaluations typically report a single length or a narrow task family, masking two failure modes: performance can collapse as length grows, and strong retrieval need not transfer to downstream use. We present ATLAS, a benchmarking framework that redefines long-context evaluation as length-dependent capability profiling. ATLAS contributes three methodological principles:(i) a layered taxonomy separating foundational operations from application workloads so failures can be attributed, (ii) length-aware AUC scoring that integrates score-length curves over a fixed 8K-1M grid, replacing single-point metrics with full degradation profiles, and (iii) ATLAScore, a harmonic-mean aggregate over taxonomy categories that penalizes imbalanced profiles, with end-to-end uncertainty propagation from subset scores through the nonlinear final aggregate. We instantiate the framework across eight capability dimensions with nine auditable components and 6,438 instances, and evaluate 26 models. Gemini-3.1-Pro-Preview leads at 128K, Claude-Opus-4.6 leads at 1M. Rankings reshuffle substantially between ATLASscore@8K-128K and ATLASscore@8K-1M: 7 models move by at least two ranks, and the two taxonomy layers share only 61% of cross-model variance, with individual rank gaps up to 12 positions. These results support reporting long-context quality by capability and length, not by a single headline score.

Linear probes trained on LLM activations are increasingly proposed as deception-detection metrics, yet report AUROC exceeding 0.96 on clean benchmarks while collapsing under distributional shift. This paper systematically pressure-tests probe-based metrics across the Gemma 3 model family (1B-27B parameters), diagnosing why they fail rather than merely documenting that they fail. We test four hypotheses about deception encoding: (1) single linear direction, (2) multi-dimensional subspace, (3) convex conic hull, (4) entropy proxy. Our design includes cross-domain transfer matrices, multi-dimensional probe analysis with permutation null baselines, entropy-residualization tests, and distractor evaluations across 8 stylistic shifts. We find that: (a) probes achieve near-perfect AUROC (>=0.998) on clean data but collapse under stylistic shifts; style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection (mean AUROC 0.979-0.983) on unseen styles; (b) the single-direction hypothesis is rejected (k=1 captures only 0.61-0.80 AUROC), with cross-domain transfer failure confirmed as geometric rather than layer-mismatch-driven; (c) the entropy-proxy hypothesis is rejected (max |rho|=0.454, max Delta-AUROC after residualization=0.004); and (d) deception does not form a significant linear subspace (per-domain k*=0), yet multi-dimensional probes (k>=5) recover the signal through distributed sub-threshold features. Probe fragility reflects distributional narrowness rather than an architectural limitation: style-augmented probes recover near-perfect detection at both 4B and 27B, establishing that the inverse scaling pattern is a training-distribution artifact rather than a genuine scale-dependent phenomenon.

Anomaly detection (AD) under data contamination is critical for deploying unsupervised defect detection in industrial environments, where curating perfectly clean training sets is impractical. However, existing methods are sensitive to contamination, suffering significant performance degradation as the noise ratio increases. In this paper, we propose Memory-Distilled Selection (MeDS), a training algorithm based on data selection. MeDS constructs an ensemble of partial memories via random subsampling, where the resulting sparsity acts as a low-pass filter that captures nominal patterns across a wide range of noise ratios, enabling coarse-level identification of contaminated samples. The aggregated distances to the bootstrapped memories are then distilled into a reconstruction score network, which is subsequently fine-tuned on clean data filtered using scores from the distilled model, enabling fine-grained localization of anomalies. MeDS is robust across a wide range of noise ratios without requiring noise-ratio-specific hyperparameter tuning, achieving 99.16% image-level AUROC on MVTecAD at a 40% noise ratio, and attaining state-of-the-art performance on both VisA and Real-IAD under noisy settings. We thoroughly verify the efficacy of MeDS on industrial AD benchmarks under noisy data scenarios, accompanied by in-depth empirical analyses.

Many practical anomalies are not merely rare inputs, but violations of semantic constraints: objects co-occur in structured ways, actions imply preconditions, and events satisfy temporal or relational regularities. We study anomaly detection in this setting, where constraints are given as logical rules over learned visual concepts, but real rule violations are rare or absent during training. We propose a neural rule evaluator that compiles each constraint into a directed acyclic graph and learns feature-aware subtree MLP gates for its internal logical operators. Each gate maps child features and edge-level negations to a parent representation and a rule-satisfaction probability, with intermediate supervision obtained from exact Boolean propagation over ground-truth concept labels. The key difficulty is that same-image training data often provide insufficient coverage of informative truth configurations and also allow shortcut solutions. To address this, we introduce chimera training: an operand-level counterfactual construction at the feature level. Instead of mixing input images, we concatenate subtree features from different samples; each operand keeps the hard truth label of the sample it came from, and the chimera target is obtained by applying the node's logical operator to those inherited labels. This supplies supervised logical counterexamples without requiring real anomalous images. Across CLEVRER, OpenImages, and VidOR, the resulting evaluator improves rule-level anomaly AUROC over independent-events and same-image semantic-training baselines, especially for compositional and relational rules. The method yields both scalar anomaly scores and rule-level attributions.

Classical noisy-label theory predicts that downstream performance under weak supervision is bounded above by the labeler's accuracy, implying a sharp crossover: once a gold-trained classifier matches the labeler, weak labels stop helping and start hurting. The prediction is theoretical; what is missing is a benchmark calibration that turns it into an instance-level statement for modern foundation-model labelers. We provide such a calibration for BiomedCLIP-generated weak labels on three medical-imaging benchmarks (PCAM, ISIC, NIH-CXR) and six downstream architectures spanning an 11x parameter range. The crossover predicted by theory appears at ng~100 on PCAM, 20-50 on ISIC, and 250-500 on NIH-CXR; weak labels above the crossover degrade AUC by up to -0.10. The location is architecture-invariant for four of five pretrained architectures, and a within-family DenseNet sweep (2.5x parameters, identical pretraining) supports the view that the labeler, not the student, is the dominant constraint. The calibration in turn produces a decision rule operable from 10-20 gold labels: compare gold-only AUC to VLM accuracy on the user's gold set. A structured-vs-random noise sign flip on NIH-CXR shows that the rate-only formulation of the bound is incomplete and identifies a concrete refinement (label-space projection) that future benchmarks can be designed to test.

The increasing use of automated translation quality estimation (QE) systems calls for practical, decision-oriented methods for evaluating their performance. We propose that Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis is a useful approach for this purpose. Our study shows that ROC analysis not only produces results consistent with currently prevalent methods, but also offers several important advantages, including actionable performance insights that support business decision-making.

Diagnostic performance in medical AI varies systematically across demographic groups, yet subgroup AUC can mask clinically important disparities. At a fixed inference-time operating point, some groups may exhibit over-diagnostic behaviour, characterized by elevated true and false positive rates, while others show under-diagnostic patterns with reduced true and false positive rates. These opposing tendencies can cancel in aggregate AUCs while producing meaningful inequities in clinical decision-making. Motivated by the need to assess and mitigate such disparities at the operating point and across multiple demographic attributes simultaneously, we propose a worst-group equalized-odds margin regularizer. The proposed regularizer explicitly targets subgroup-level deviations on both the true positive and false positive sides at inference. At each update, the method identifies subgroups defined by explicit demographic attributes (e.g., age, sex, and race) that exhibit the most extreme margin deviations and applies a unified penalty, enabling fairness optimization across multiple demographic axes without requiring explicit intersectional constraints. Across two medical imaging datasets in realistic multi-label settings, our method consistently reduces disparities in Equalized Odds and Equalized Opportunity with minimal impact on AUC, preserving diagnostic performance while improving fairness.

Tensor-valued data arise naturally in neuroimaging, genomics, climate science, and spatiotemporal networks, where multilinear dependencies across modes carry information that is destroyed under vectorization. Existing approaches either impose a single low-rank structure, which can miss localized signal, or treat the tensor as a long vector, which discards its multiway geometry. We propose a Dual-Channel Tensor Neural Network (DC-TNN) that decomposes each tensor input into a low-rank core and a sparse refinement, and processes the two components through coupled neural channels. The framework is structure-agnostic and accommodates CP, Tucker, and tensor-train cores within a single architecture. For estimation, we establish non-asymptotic risk bounds for the DC-TNN estimator that decompose into network approximation, core estimation, and refinement-selection terms, and show that the effective dimension is determined jointly by the core rank and refinement sparsity rather than by the ambient tensor size. For inference, we develop a structure-aware conformal ROC procedure that calibrates within the core-refinement latent space and produces ROC and AUC confidence bands with finite-sample, distribution-free coverage. Building on this, we propose a conformal structure selector that, to our knowledge, is the first distribution-free procedure for choosing among candidate tensor decompositions with finite-sample validity. Simulations and an analysis of a protein dataset demonstrate competitive predictive accuracy, reliable uncertainty quantification, and consistent recovery of the tensor structure.

Anomaly detection in batch processes is hindered by transient dynamics, scarce fault labels, and reliance on single-modality sensor data. This work introduces UTOPYA (Unified Temporal Observation for Physics-Informed Anomaly Detection and Time-Series Prediction), a 15.2M-parameter multimodal framework that jointly addresses anomaly detection, time-series prediction, and phase classification in batch distillation by fusing eight data modalities through Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) conditioned cross-modal attention and gated fusion. A physics-informed regularisation scheme introduced in this work enforces temporal smoothness and thermodynamic monotonicity, while curriculum learning introduces training samples in order of physical difficulty. On the 119-experiment multimodal batch distillation dataset of Arweiler et al. (2026), UTOPYA achieves a window-level test AUROC of 0.832 and 0.874 under multi-signal experiment-level scoring, substantially outperforming four external baselines (PCA, autoencoder, Isolation Forest, and LSTM autoencoder) evaluated under identical conditions (+0.147 window-level AUROC over the best baseline). A multimodal ablation over 15~architectural configurations shows that static context via FiLM conditioning is the key enabler, lifting experiment-level multi-signal AUROC by +0.145 over the unimodal baseline (0.729 to 0.874). Separately, a training ablation across 14 design choices reveals that several widely-adopted techniques, including instance normalisation, Mixup, ensembling, test-time augmentation, and stochastic weight averaging, fail to improve or actively degrade generalisation in this data-scarce setting. These negative results expose a fundamental tension between smoothing-based regularisation and anomaly detection, providing practical guidance for multimodal process monitoring deployment.

Large language models (LLMs) generate not only reasoning text, but also token-level confidence trajectories that record how uncertainty evolves during inference. Whether these trajectories are relevant to reasoning correctness remains unclear. Here we show that confidence trajectories encode a content-agnostic confidence geometry associated with trace-level final-answer correctness. Using only token-level confidence values, without access to the input question, reasoning text, hidden states, or external verifiers, we find that low-dimensional representations of confidence trajectories separate correct from incorrect reasoning traces. Across GSM8K, MATH, and MMLU, this geometric separation is quantitatively linked to downstream predictability: stronger clustering of correct and incorrect traces, measured by the Davies--Bouldin index, consistently corresponds to higher correctness-discrimination AUC. We further show that correctness-related information is enriched in the tail of reasoning, suggesting that late-stage confidence dynamics carry key correctness signals. We propose NeuralConf, a lightweight estimator that learns from confidence trajectories for correctness evaluation. Under a fixed trace budget, NeuralConf-derived scores improve confidence-weighted answer aggregation over majority voting, tail confidence, and other static baselines. These results reveal that LLMs expose trace-intrinsic statistical signals of correctness through their own confidence dynamics, offering a route to improve inference using information already present within generation.

Background: Pregnancy-associated thrombotic microangiopathy (P-TMA) is rare but life-threatening. Early risk prediction before overt clinical presentation remains challenging, as the associated laboratory abnormalities are subtle, multidimensional, and frequently masked by common physiological changes such as gestational thrombocytopenia and pregnancy-related proteinuria, thus overlapping heavily with benign obstetric and renal conditions. This complexity is poorly captured by univariate or rule-based approaches; however, it is addressable by machine learning, which can extract latent, time-dependent risk signatures from longitudinal clinical tests. Methods: This retrospective study included 300 pregnancies comprising 142 P-TMA cases and 158 controls. After exclusion of identifiers and non-informative variables, 146 longitudinal laboratory predictors were retained. Participants were divided into a training cohort (80%) and a held-out test cohort (20%) using stratified sampling. Five algorithms were evaluated: logistic regression, support vector machine with radial basis function kernel, random forest, extra trees, and gradient boosting. The final model was selected by mean cross-validated AUROC, refitted on the full training cohort, and evaluated once in the held-out test cohort. Interpretability analyses examined global feature importance and distributional patterns of leading predictors. Results: Gradient boosting was prespecified by cross-validation in the training cohort. The model achieved an AUROC of 0.872 (95% CI: 0.769-0.952) and an AUPRC of 0.883 (95% CI: 0.780-0.959) in a held-out test cohort, with sensitivity of 0.750 and specificity of 0.812. Conclusions: Longitudinal clinical laboratory tests obtained during routine care contained informative and clinically plausible signals for P-TMA risk. Notably, cystatin C at week 6 showed promise as an early monitoring indicator.

The analysis of physiological time series, such as electrocardiograms (ECG) and photoplethysmograms (PPG), is persistently hindered by modality and frequency gaps stemming from heterogeneous recording devices. Existing foundation models typically rely on continuous latent spaces, which frequently suffer from severe modality entanglement, lack high-fidelity cross-frequency generative capacity, and impose high computational costs that prohibit edge-device deployment. In this paper, we propose Compact Latent Manifold Translation (CLMT), a highly parameter-efficient (0.09B) unified framework that bridges these gaps through a novel two-stage discrete translation paradigm. First, we introduce a Universal Tokenizer utilizing Hierarchical Residual Vector Quantization (RVQ) to decouple heterogeneous signals into isolated, well-structured discrete latent manifolds, effectively preventing inter-modality interference. Second, a Context-Prompted Latent Translator maps these discrete tokens across modalities by integrating static physiological priors, reframing complex signal synthesis as a pure latent sequence translation task. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that our 0.09B model significantly outperforms massive baselines. In cross-modal PPG-to-ECG synthesis, it resolves temporal phase drift and dramatically improves the clinical R-peak detection F1-score from 0.37 (baseline) to 0.83. Furthermore, in extreme cross-frequency super-resolution (25Hz to 100Hz), it successfully recovers high-frequency diagnostic landmarks, achieving an unprecedented Pearson correlation of 0.9956. By learning a universal discrete language for biological signals with a fraction of the computational footprint, our approach sets a new trajectory for edge-deployable, multi-modal medical foundation models.

Machine-learning predictors of biochemical activity often exhibit large random-split-to-leave-one-target-out generalisation gaps that have been documented but not decomposed. We frame this as an evaluation-science question and use targeted protein degradation as the empirical test bed. PROTACs (proteolysis-targeting chimeras) are heterobifunctional small molecules that induce targeted protein degradation, with more than forty candidates currently in clinical trials; published predictors report AUROC of 0.85 to 0.91 under random-split cross-validation, while the leave-one-target-out (LOTO) protocol of Ribes et al. reduces performance to approximately 0.67. Random splits reward within-target interpolation, whereas LOTO measures the novel-target prediction that de-novo design depends on. We decompose this gap and identify inter-laboratory measurement variance as the dominant component, anchored by a within-target cross-laboratory cascade bounding the inter-laboratory contribution at 0.124 AUROC, well above the 0.05 contribution from binarisation-threshold choice. Across eight published architectures and ESM-2 protein language models up to 3B parameters, LOTO AUROC plateaus near 0.67, with a comparable plateau under SMILES-level deduplication; a 21-dimensional 2000-trial hyperparameter optimisation cannot break this ceiling, and the rank-1 single-seed configuration regresses by 0.161 AUROC under multi-seed validation, matching a closed-form selection-bias prediction (Bailey and Lopez de Prado, 2014). Few-shot k=5 stratified per-target retraining combined with ADMET features lifts 65-target LOTO AUROC from 0.668 to 0.7050, and post-hoc Platt scaling recovers raw output to within the 0.05 well-calibrated threshold. We release PROTAC-Bench (10,748 measurements, 173 targets, 65 LOTO folds), the variance-decomposition framework, the per-target calibration protocol, and the evaluation code.

The Model Context Protocol (MCP) has become a widely adopted interface for LLM agents to invoke external tools, yet learned monitoring of MCP tool-call traffic remains underexplored. In this article, the proposed detector is presented as an attack detection framework for MCP tool-call traffic that encodes each agent session as a graph (tool calls as nodes, sequential and data-flow links as edges), enriches nodes with sentence-embedding features over arguments and responses, and classifies sessions as benign or attacked. Three GNN architectures (GAT, GCN, GraphSAGE), a no-graph MLP, and classical baselines (XGBoost, random forest, logistic regression, linear SVM) are evaluated, with the full architecture comparison conducted on RAS-Eval (task-stratified splits) and GraphSAGE retained as the GNN baseline on ATBench and a combined-source variant (both label-stratified). Three findings emerge. First, content-level features are essential: metadata-only detection plateaus around an AUROC of 0.64 regardless of architecture, while content embeddings push the AUROC above 0.89. Second, naive random-split evaluation inflates AUROC by up to 26 percentage points relative to task-disjoint splits, a memorization confound that prior agent-detection work has not addressed. Third, the detection signal resides primarily in the SBERT content embeddings: an AUROC of 0.975 was reached by tree ensembles on pooled embeddings, performing, for the most part, better than the neural architectures in the primary RAS-Eval setting including GNNs (0.917) and the MLP (0.896), and self-supervised pre-training does not deliver a label-efficiency advantage on this task.

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches commonly use observation masks and time-gap information, but they do not continuously capture the decaying reliability of past observations or consistently organize multi-resolution information within a coherent temporal context during aggregation. To address these limitations, we propose Reliability-aware Temporal Aggregation with Mamba (ReTAMamba), which reconstructs clinical time series as time-variable token sequences, estimates observation reliability from missingness and elapsed time, and augments interval summaries with statistical descriptors. Chronological Weaving is used to integrate short- and long-term temporal information within a coherent temporal context, and a budgeted token router is applied to constrain sequence length while preserving informative summaries. Experiments on MIMIC-IV, eICU, and PhysioNet 2012 show that ReTAMamba consistently improves AUPRC over strong baselines, with average relative gains of 7.51%, 7.80%, and 10.15%, respectively. Cohort-level and patient-level analyses on eICU further showed that the learned mean decay for more dynamic signals, such as heart rate and blood pressure, was 24.3% larger than that for relatively static signals, such as laboratory test variables. These findings suggest that effective prediction in irregular clinical time series requires modeling not only what was measured, but also when and how it was observed, including information freshness and observation timeliness.

With the rise in scale for deep learning models to billions of parameters, the computational cost of fine-tuning remains a significant barrier to deployment. While Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become the standard for parameter-efficient fine-tuning, the need to set a predefined, static rank $r$ requires exhaustive grid searches to balance efficiency and performance. Existing rank-adaptive solutions such as DyLoRA mitigate this by sampling ranks during the training from a predefined distribution. However, they often yield sub-optimal results at higher ranks due to lack of consistent gradient signals across the full hierarchy of ranks, thus making these methods data-inefficient. In this paper, we propose MatryoshkaLoRA, a general, Matryoshka-inspired training framework for LoRA that learns accurate hierarchical low-rank representations by inserting a fixed, carefully crafted diagonal matrix $P$ between the existing LoRA adapters to scale their sub-ranks accordingly. By introducing this simple modification, our general framework recovers LoRA and DyLoRA only by changing $P$ and ensures all sub-ranks embed the available gradient information efficiently. Our MatryoshkaLoRA supports dynamic rank selection with minimal degradation in accuracy. We further propose Area Under the Rank Accuracy Curve (AURAC), a metric that consistently evaluates the performance of hierarchical low-rank adapters. Our results demonstrate that MatryoshkaLoRA learns more accurate hierarchical low-rank representations than prior rank-adaptive approaches and achieves superior accuracy-performance trade-offs across ranks on the evaluated datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/MatryoshkaLoRA.

Conventional visual object trackers localize targets using handcrafted spatial priors, often in the form of heatmaps. Such priors provide only surrogate supervision and are poorly aligned with tracking optimization and evaluation metrics, such as intersection over union (IoU) and area under the success curve (AUC). Here, we introduce RELO, a REinforcement-learning-to-LOcalize method for visual object tracking that formulates target localization as a Markov decision process. Specifically, RELO replaces handcrafted spatial priors with a localization policy learned over spatial positions via reinforcement learning, with rewards combining frame-level IoU and sequence-level AUC. We additionally introduce layer-aligned temporal token propagation to improve semantic consistency across frames, with negligible computational overhead. Across multiple benchmarks, RELO achieves superior results, attaining 57.5% AUC on LaSOText without template updates. This confirms that reward-driven localization provides an effective alternative to prior-driven localization for visual object tracking.

We introduce a proxy-analyzer framework for detecting hallucinations in large language models. Instead of looking inside the generating model, our system reads already-generated text through a small locally hosted open-weight model and spots hallucinations using the reader's own internal activations. This works just as well when the generator is a closed API like GPT-4 as when it is any open-weight model. We built eighteen features grounded in how transformers process text, covering residual stream norms, per-head source-document attention, entropy, MLP activations, logit-lens trajectories, and three new token-level grounding statistics. We trained a stacking ensemble on 72,135 samples from five hallucination datasets. We tested across seven analyzer architectures from 0.5 billion to 9 billion parameters: Qwen2.5 at 0.5B and 7B, Gemma-2 at 2B and 9B, Pythia at 1.4B, and LLaMA-3 at both 3B and 8B. Across all seven, we consistently beat ReDeEP's token-level AUC of 0.73 on RAGTruth by 7.4 to 10.3 percentage points. Qwen2.5-7B reached an F1 of 0.717, just above ReDeEP's 0.713, while Qwen2.5-0.5B hit 0.706. The most striking finding is how tightly all seven models cluster: AUC spans only 2.3 percentage points across an eighteen-fold difference in model size. Even more surprising, our 3B LLaMA outperforms our 8B LLaMA on RAGTruth, showing that bigger is not always better even within the same model family. Both RAGTruth and LLM-AggreFact include outputs from multiple LLM families, so our results are not skewed toward any particular generator.

We externally validated three deep learning models (DenseNet121, ViT-B/32, and ResNet50) for predicting mammographic breast density from breast ultrasound exams on an independent cohort. The external validation set comprised 2,000 ultrasound exams, including 500 cancer cases defined by an initial negative exam (BI-RADS 1 or 2) followed by a cancer diagnosis within 6 months to 10 years, and 1,500 negative controls matched by manufacturer and study year. Performance was measured using patient-level AUROC across four density categories: A (fatty), B (scattered), C (heterogeneous), and D (extremely dense). As a downstream assessment, we also evaluated 10-year risk prediction by incorporating age and AI-derived density into the Tyrer-Cuzick model and comparing performance against a reference model using age and mammography-reported density. All three models performed best in extremely dense breasts (AUROC 0.868-0.899), with strong performance in fatty (0.814-0.838) and scattered density (0.764-0.799), and lower performance in heterogeneously dense breasts (0.699-0.729). DenseNet121 achieved the highest overall performance (micro-averaged AUROC 0.885), and performance across categories was comparable between internal and external testing. For risk modeling, age combined with AI-derived density yielded a lower AUROC than age combined with mammography-reported density (0.541 vs. 0.570; p = 0.23), with no statistically significant difference. These findings indicate that deep learning models generalize well to external data with different racial composition for breast density assessment. While performance is strongest in extremely dense breasts, heterogeneously dense remains more challenging, highlighting the need for targeted optimization.

The rapid advancement in generative AI models has enabled the creation of photorealistic images. At the same time, there are growing concerns about the potential misuse and dangers of generated content, as well as a pressing need for effective AI-generated image detectors. However, current training-based detection techniques are typically computationally costly and can hardly be generalized to unseen data domains, while training-free methods fall short in detection performance. To bridge this gap, we propose a search-based method employing data embedding sensitivity in intermediate layers to detect AI-generated images. Given a set of real and AI-generated images, our method examines the similarity between original image embeddings and perturbed image embeddings, and detects AI-generated images based on the similarity. We examine the proposed method on two comprehensive benchmarks: GenImage and Forensics Small. Our method exhibits improved performance across different datasets compared to both training-free and training-based state-of-the-art methods. On average, our method achieves the largest performance gain on the Forensics Small benchmark by 39.61% compared to the best training-free method and 5.14% compared to the best training-based method in AUROC score.

Repeated sampling is a standard way to spend test-time compute, but its benefit is controlled by the latent distribution of correctness across examples, not by one-call accuracy alone. We study the binary correctness layer of repeated LLM inference under conditional-i.i.d. calls. One labeled call identifies the mean latent success probability; two labeled calls identify its second moment and hence the same-example correctness correlation that separates stable errors from recoverable call-level randomness. From these two moments, every fixed majority-vote budget has a sharp distribution-free two-call interval. The key technical reduction is that the infinite-dimensional moment problem has three-atom extremizers and quadratic dual certificates for every finite budget, so the bounds are exact rather than discretized or parametric. The first useful budget, three votes, has a closed form, width at most $1/8$, and a certified-improvement criterion. The infinite-vote endpoint is the limit of majority voting as the number of calls tends to infinity; it is also sharply bounded, but remains threshold-sensitive because it depends on latent mass around $q=1/2$. We add maximum-entropy and Latent-difficulty Gaussian-probit point completions, and experiments on LLM calls over QNLI and QQP show that empirical three- and five-vote accuracies are contained in the projected two-call regions while temperature changes and randomized model mixtures can create voting gains not ordered by one-call accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse natural language processing tasks, yet they remain susceptible to hallucinations -- generating content that is factually incorrect, unfaithful to provided context, or misaligned with user instructions. We present HalluScan, a comprehensive benchmark framework that systematically evaluates hallucination detection and mitigation across 72 configurations spanning 6 detection methods, 4 open-weight model families, and 3 diverse domains. We introduce three key contributions: (1) HalluScore, a novel composite metric that achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.41 with human expert judgments; (2) Adaptive Detection Routing (ADR), an intelligent routing algorithm achieving 2.0x cost reduction with only 0.1% AUROC degradation; and (3) systematic error cascade decomposition revealing substantial variation in hallucination error types across domains. Our experiments reveal that NLI Verification achieves the highest overall AUROC of 0.88, while RAV achieves the second-highest AUROC of 0.66.

Confidence calibration has been dominated by the Expected Calibration Error (ECE), a linear metric that counts calibration offset equally regardless of the confidence level at which it occurs. We show that ECE can remain small even under arbitrarily large overconfidence risk, so we propose Calibrated Size Ratio (CSR) instead, an interpretable metric that equals 1 under perfect calibration, from which we derive the risk probability $P_{\mathrm{risk}}$ that quantifies the statistical evidence for overconfidence. We further argue that overconfidence risk assessment must be complemented by a measure of discriminative value: whether the assigned confidences actively distinguish correct from incorrect predictions. We show that confidence-weighted accuracy $\mathrm{cwA}$ is the natural such complement, and that confidence-weighting extends to all standard classification metrics. In particular, we prove that the confidence-weighted AUC (cwAUC) captures the information about calibration while the classical AUC cannot. We validate the proposed indicators on several synthetic confidence distributions under multiple controlled calibration profiles and find that CSR separates risky from non-risky assignments. We also test the metrics on fifteen real datasets, with and without post-hoc calibration, and find that standard methods can yield risky confidence profiles.

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve of a binary classifier has often been utilized to measure the performance of the classifier. The area beneath this curve is used in particular because of its quoted probabilistic interpretation as being equal to the probability that the classifier will rank a random positive observation above a random negative observation. This paper formalizes this claim, produces a bound on how far away from the truth it is if a hypothesis is not met, and gives a small literature review of the ROC curve.

Automated depression detection often relies on static aggregation of conversational signals, potentially obscuring clinically meaningful behavioral dynamics. We investigated whether entropy-driven temporal biomarkers improve depression detection beyond standard pooled features using the DAIC-WOZ corpus. Using 142 labeled participants, we reconstructed utterance-level acoustic trajectories and compared pooled temporal baselines, trajectory dynamics, Shannon entropy biomarkers, recurrence quantification, sample entropy, fractal complexity, and coupling biomarkers under leakage-aware validation. Static pooling achieved an AUC of 0.593, trajectory dynamics improved performance to 0.637, and entropy biomarkers produced the strongest statistically significant improvement over pooled baselines (AUC 0.646; nested cross-validated AUC 0.615; permutation p = 0.017). Entropy biomarkers outperformed recurrence, coupling, sample entropy, and fractalbased features, with several biomarkers stable across folds. These findings suggest depression-related signal may lie less in average acoustic levels than in entropy of conversational dynamics, supporting temporally informed digital phenotypes for mental-health assessment.

Nowadays, visual data forgery detection plays an increasingly important role in social and economic security with the rapid development of generative models. Existing face forgery detectors still can't achieve satisfactory performance because of poor generalization ability across datasets. The key factor that led to this phenomenon is the lack of suitable metrics: the commonly used cross-dataset AUC metric fails to reveal an important issue where detection scores may shift significantly across data domains. To explicitly evaluate cross-domain score comparability, we propose \textbf{Cross-AUC}, an evaluation metric that can compute AUC across dataset pairs by contrasting real samples from one dataset with fake samples from another (and vice versa). It is interesting to find that evaluating representative detectors under the Cross-AUC metric reveals substantial performance drops, exposing an overlooked robustness problem. Besides, we also propose the novel framework \textbf{S}emantic \textbf{F}ine-grained \textbf{A}lignment and \textbf{M}ixture-of-Experts (\textbf{SFAM}), consisting of a patch-level image-text alignment module that enhances CLIP's sensitivity to manipulation artifacts, and the facial region mixture-of-experts module, which routes features from different facial regions to specialized experts for region-aware forgery analysis. Extensive qualitative and quantitative experiments on the public datasets prove that the proposed method achieves superior performance compared with the state-of-the-art methods with various suitable metrics.

Multi-class defect detection constitutes a critical yet challenging task in industrial quality inspection, where existing approaches typically suffer from two fundamental limitations: (i) the necessity of training separate models for each defect category, resulting in substantial computational and memory overhead, and (ii) degraded robustness caused by inter-class feature perturbation when heterogeneous defect categories are jointly modeled. In this paper, we present FPFNet, a Feature Perturbation Pool-based Fusion Network that synergistically integrates a stochastic feature perturbation pool with a multi-layer feature fusion strategy to address these challenges within a unified detection framework. The feature perturbation pool enriches the training distribution by randomly injecting diverse noise patterns -- including Gaussian noise, F-Noise, and F-Drop -- into the extracted feature representations, thereby strengthening the model's robustness against domain shifts and unseen defect morphologies. Concurrently, the multi-layer feature fusion module aggregates hierarchical feature representations from both the encoder and decoder through residual connections and normalization, enabling the network to capture complex cross-scale relationships while preserving fine-grained spatial details essential for precise defect localization. Built upon the UniAD architecture~\cite{you2022unified}, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on two widely adopted benchmarks: 97.17% image-level AUROC and 96.93% pixel-level AUROC on MVTec-AD, and 91.08% image-level AUROC and 99.08% pixel-level AUROC on VisA, surpassing existing methods by notable margins while introducing no additional learnable parameters or computational complexity.

Industrial surface defect detection often suffers from limited defect samples, severe long-tailed distributions, and difficulties in accurately localizing subtle defects under complex backgrounds. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an unsupervised defect detection method that integrates a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) with an asymmetric teacher-student architecture. First, at the data level, the DDPM is trained solely on normal samples. By introducing constant-variance Gaussian perturbations and Perlin noise-based masks, high-fidelity and physically consistent defect samples along with pixel-level annotations are generated, effectively alleviating the data scarcity problem. Second, at the model level, an asymmetric dual-stream network is constructed. The teacher network provides stable representations of normal features, while the student network reconstructs normal patterns and amplifies discrepancies between normal and anomalous regions. Finally, a joint optimization strategy combining cosine similarity loss and pixel-wise segmentation supervision is adopted to achieve precise localization of subtle defects. Experimental results on the MVTecAD dataset show that the proposed method achieves 98.4% image-level AUROC and 98.3% pixel-level AUROC, significantly outperforming existing unsupervised and mainstream deep learning methods. The proposed approach does not require large amounts of real defect samples and enables accurate and robust industrial defect detection and localization. \keywords{Industrial defect detection \and diffusion models \and data generation \and teacher-student architecture \and pixel-level localization}

Large language models frequently commit unrecoverable reasoning errors mid-generation: once a wrong step is taken, subsequent tokens compound the mistake rather than correct it. We introduce $\textbf{Latent Phase-Shift Rollback}$ (LPSR): at each generation step, we monitor the residual stream at a critical layer lcrit, detect abrupt directional reversals (phase shifts) via a cosine-similarity $+$ entropy dual gate, and respond by rolling back the KV-cache and injecting a pre-computed steering vector. No fine-tuning, gradient computation, or additional forward passes are required. LPSR achieves $\mathbf{44.0\%}$ on MATH-500 with an 8B model versus $28.8\%$ for standard AR ($+15.2$ pp; McNemar $χ^2 = 66.96$, $p < 10^{-15}$). Critically, prompted self-correction, the most natural inference-time baseline, scores only $19.8\%$, below standard AR; LPSR exceeds it by $+24.2$ pp ($χ^2 = 89.4$, $p \approx 0$). LPSR also outperforms Best-of-16 ($+7.8$ pp) at $5.4\times$ lower token cost, and surpasses a standard 70B model ($35.2\%$) with $8.75\times$ fewer parameters at ${\sim}3\times$ the token budget. A 32-layer sweep reveals a novel \textbf{detection-correction dissociation}: error-detection AUC peaks at layer14 ($0.718$) but task accuracy peaks at layer16 ($44.0\%$ vs.\ $29.2\%$), demonstrating that optimal monitoring depth differs for detection and correction.

The validity screen (Cacioli, 2026d, 2026e) classifies LLM confidence signals as Valid, Indeterminate, or Invalid. We test whether these classifications predict selective prediction performance. Twenty frontier LLMs from seven families were evaluated on 524 items across six cognitive tracks. Valid models show mean Type 2 AUROC = .624 (SD = .048). Invalid models show mean AUROC = .357 (SD = .231). Cohen's d = 2.81, p = .002. The tiers order monotonically: Invalid (.357) < Indeterminate (.554) < Valid (.624). Split-half cross-validation yields median d = 1.77, P(d > 0) = 1.0 across 1,000 splits. The three-tier classification accounts for 47% of the variance in AUROC. DeepSeek-R1 drops from 85.3% accuracy at full coverage to 11.3% at 10% coverage. The screen predicts the criterion. For selective prediction, the screen matters.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly exposed to adaptive jailbreaking, particularly in high-stakes Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) domains. Although streaming probes enable real-time monitoring, they still make systematic errors. We identify a core issue: existing methods often rely on a few high-scoring tokens, leading to false alarms when sensitive CBRN terms appear in benign contexts. To address this, we introduce a streaming probing objective that requires multiple evidence tokens to consistently support a prediction, rather than relying on isolated spikes. This encourages more robust detection based on aggregated signals instead of single-token cues. At a fixed 1% false-positive rate, our method improves the true-positive rate by 35.55% relative to strong streaming baselines. We further observe substantial gains in AUROC, even when starting from near-saturated baseline performance (AUROC = 97.40%). We also show that probing Attention or MLP activations consistently outperforms residual-stream features. Finally, even when adversarial fine-tuning enables novel character-level ciphers, harmful intent remains detectable: probes developed for the base LLMs can be applied ``plug-and-play'' to these obfuscated attacks, achieving an AUROC of over 98.85%.

Selecting LLM-generated code candidates using LLM-generated tests is challenging because the tests themselves may be incorrect. Existing methods either treat all tests equally or rely on ad-hoc heuristics to filter unreliable tests. Yet determining test correctness requires knowing which codes are correct, creating a \emph{circular dependency}. Our key insight is that we need not determine test correctness at all: \emph{test votes should rank, not merely count}. What matters is not how many codes pass a test, but whether the test can \emph{distinguish} correct from incorrect code. We break the circular dependency via leave-one-out evaluation: hold out one test, rank codes by their aggregate scores on all remaining tests, and measure whether the held-out test's pass/fail pattern agrees with this ranking. We formalize this agreement as the leave-one-out AUC~(LOO-AUC) and prove that the expected LOO-AUC is proportional to each test's ability to separate correct code from incorrect code. Building on this, we propose \textbf{ACES}~(\textbf{A}UC \textbf{C}onsist\textbf{E}ncy \textbf{S}coring) with two complementary variants: ACES-C provides closed-form weights that provably approximate the oracle in expectation under a mild assumption on average test quality; ACES-O drops this assumption and iteratively optimizes a differentiable LOO-AUC objective. Both operate solely on the binary pass matrix with negligible overhead, and achieve state-of-the-art Pass@$k$ on multiple code generation benchmarks.

Differential privacy (DP)'s effect in medical imaging is typically evaluated only through end-to-end performance, leaving the mechanism of privacy-induced utility loss unclear. We introduce Differential Privacy Representation Geometry for Medical Imaging (DP-RGMI), a framework that interprets DP as a structured transformation of representation space and decomposes performance degradation into encoder geometry and task-head utilization. Geometry is quantified by representation displacement from initialization and spectral effective dimension, while utilization is measured as the gap between linear-probe and end-to-end utility. Across over 594,000 images from four chest X-ray datasets and multiple pretrained initializations, we show that DP is consistently associated with a utilization gap even when linear separability is largely preserved. At the same time, displacement and spectral dimension exhibit non-monotonic, initialization- and dataset-dependent reshaping, indicating that DP alters representation anisotropy rather than uniformly collapsing features. Correlation analysis reveals that the association between end-to-end performance and utilization is robust across datasets but can vary by initialization, while geometric quantities capture additional prior- and dataset-conditioned variation. These findings position DP-RGMI as a reproducible framework for diagnosing privacy-induced failure modes and informing privacy model selection.

Frame-level area under the ROC curve (AUC) is the dominant evaluation metric for weakly supervised video anomaly detection (WSVAD). Its standard form measures whether an anomalous frame outranks a normal frame drawn from anywhere in the test set. We refer to this comparison as pooled AUC, since it aggregates frame pairs across test videos regardless of source. Pooled AUC therefore credits both event localization and differences between video sources. We audit this protocol on UCF-Crime across recent state-of-the-art models spanning different backbone families. Holding each model's frame scores fixed, we read them under three pairing granularities: global, per anomaly category, and within each video, then repeat the same three-granularity readout on zero-shot scores computed from the models' internal representations. We assess ranking reliability with a paired video bootstrap. Three findings follow. First, pooled AUC does not reliably predict within-video anomaly localization: models with similar pooled scores exhibit large localization differences and rank reversals under stricter granularities. Second, at the benchmark's test-split size, pooled AUC lacks the resolution to support state-of-the-art margins reported in the field. Within each backbone family, it resolves no comparison at those margins, while within-video AUC resolves several over identical predictions. Learned representations further reveal that within-video anomaly structure and detector localization are decoupled. Third, on normal footage alone, every model we examine separates videos by recording properties, such as resolution and color encoding, indicating that scene sensitivity is shared across the setting rather than specific to any architecture. We publicly release a granularity-aware protocol computable from existing predictions and scene-factor annotations for UCF-Crime.