Battery Energy Storage Systems

Battery energy storage system (BESS) dispatch must preserve operational feasibility while declining price spreads reduce the margin available to pay for cycling. We study a proximal policy optimization (PPO) controller whose pre-selection physical action mask and emergency projection are separated from a causal, forecast-informed economic advisory. All forecast-dependent methods receive the same causal 24-step forecast and grid-side settlement. Across five PPO seeds, advice-on net profit is 30.59 and 18.04 USD per 336-hour T1 and T2 window, versus 36.77 and 22.94 USD for proxy-cost MPC; PPO remains below this reference in both periods. Advice raises T2 profit from 16.45 to 18.04 USD while reducing throughput, but is immaterial in T1. On disjoint weekly blocks, PPO is stable under daily, weekly, and blended seasonal forecasts, weakens under persistence, and remains below proxy-cost MPC. Paired diagnostics localize changes to the observed 5-10 USD/MWh regime with mixed SoC-dependent effects. An M0-M6 ablation shows that mask removal sends thousands of infeasible requests to projection, while removing both physical layers exposes ramp violations. The evidence separates economic screening from feasibility enforcement without claiming formal safety, lifecycle-optimal aging, or RL dominance.

As artificial intelligence systems increasingly rely on distributed and collaborative training, the energy footprint of these processes becomes a shared responsibility. Modern AI training often unfolds across heterogeneous compute nodes-ranging from cloud clusters to edge devices-whose energy availability is spatially and temporally variable. At the same time, renewable energy grids experience growing levels of excess generation, creating opportunities to align computational workloads with low-carbon energy supply. In this work, we develop a game-theoretic model of carbon-aware AI training in which autonomous agents strategically choose whether to participate and how intensively to train under limited renewable energy availability. Each agent balances diminishing learning returns, rewards for remaining within green-energy budgets, and penalties for grid consumption. While our framework applies broadly to distributed AI training, we examine Federated Learning as a representative case study due to its decentralized structure and flexible scheduling. We analyze equilibrium existence, efficiency, and adaptive dynamics, and provide simulation evidence that appropriately designed incentives can eliminate grid-based energy usage while preserving model performance. Our findings demonstrate how incentive-compatible training mechanisms can enhance energy efficiency and sharply reduce carbon emissions under renewable-energy constraints.

The paper introduces the ante-hoc Explainable AI methodology to assess the global feature importance of the Machine Learning models used for heat demand forecasting in intelligent control of District Heating Systems, with motivation to facilitate their interpretability and trustworthiness, hence addressing the challenges related to adherence to communal standards, customer satisfaction and liability risks. Methodology includes use of four different approaches, namely intrinsic interpretability of Gradient Boosting method and selected post-hoc methods, namely Partial Dependence, Accumulated Local Effects and SHAP. None of the selected methods assume feature permutation or perturbations which can introduce bias due to introduction of random unrealistic values of data instances. Discussion of results is provided, including the assessment of complementarities where applicable, with specific interpretations in context of the district heating processes.

This paper presents a comparative study of two distinct approaches, XGBoost and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), for forecasting transmitted heat energy in District Heating Systems (DHS). The objective is to explore scenarios in which conventional ML algorithms demonstrate better performance over deep learning networks in time series forecasting and the associated benefits in terms of computational cost and environmental impact. The study focuses on a real-world DHS dataset. Through experimentation and analysis, it is demonstrated that XGBoost consistently outperforms LSTM in this specific forecasting task. The difference is explained by the error distribution illustrating that LSTM makes more significant errors in the intervals of less data availability. The reduced computational demands of conventional ML approaches not only result in cost savings but also minimize the carbon footprint associated with data analysis tasks in energy systems.

In this paper, we test different methods for multivariate detection of outliers in the data of transmitted heat energy in the selected substation of local District Heating System, by also considering outside ambient temperature, namely Z-score (univariate, as a benchmark), Mahalanobis distances, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Isolation Forest and Hotelling's T-squared test. The overall research aims at uncovering irregular plant operation, with a wider objective of identifying the opportunities for reducing the consumption of gas in central heating plants as well as the CO2 emission. The proposed approach considers specific domain circumstances, such as irrelevance of zero transmit-ted energy timepoints as indication of off-grid plant. The outcomes of the different methods are discussed with domain experts. It was concluded that PCA, Isolation Forest and Hotelling method provide relevant results. Finally, we adopt the ensemble method (selection based on the agreement of all three methods on the detected outliers) as the final approach.

Accurate prediction of lithium-ion battery state of health (SOH) is essential for reliable energy storage operation. However, purely data-driven models may generalize poorly across cycling protocols and produce physically implausible behavior during long-term extrapolation. We developed a physics-informed differentiable degradation modeling framework (PiDDM) for battery SOH prediction. PiDDM incorporates empirical Arrhenius degradation kinetics associated with solid electrolyte interphase growth and loss of lithium inventory into the training objective, encouraging physically consistent capacity fade under diverse operating conditions. The framework was evaluated using a public dataset of 55 batteries cycled under six operating protocols. PiDDM achieved the lowest average prediction error among the evaluated models and substantially reduced mean squared error relative to a multilayer perceptron and a baseline physics-informed neural network. For extrapolation, the models were trained on the first 90% of each battery's cycle life and evaluated on the unseen final 10%. PiDDM captured accelerated end-of-life degradation while avoiding the nonphysical capacity regeneration produced by the baseline models. These results show that incorporating degradation physics into neural network training improves predictive accuracy and physical consistency, providing a promising approach for practical battery health monitoring.

AC optimal power flow determines the minimum-cost generation dispatch under nonlinear power balance constraints and is solved thousands of times daily in electricity market operations. Learning a direct mapping from load conditions to OPF solutions can accelerate this computation, yet with deepening renewable penetration, a single optimal dispatch is no longer sufficient. Operators require a characterization of the distribution of feasible near-optimal solutions for risk quantification, sensitivity analysis, and multi-objective trade-off assessment. Supervised neural networks provide fast point predictions but cannot capture this conditional distribution. Diffusion-based generative models can sample diverse solutions in principle, yet existing methods operating in the raw state space exhibit degraded solution quality and fail to scale beyond medium-sized systems. We identify the root cause as the conflation of two distinct tasks within a single model. Compressing the high-dimensional OPF solution manifold is one task, and learning the conditional mapping from loads to that manifold is another. This paper presents FMOPF, a framework that resolves this conflation by decoupling compression from generation through latent flow matching and by explicitly modeling load-state coupling through a Constraint-Aware Interaction Prior Network. Experiments on four IEEE test systems demonstrate that FMOPF provides the most effective Newton-Raphson warm starts, achieves the lowest tail risk among generative methods, and is the first such method to scale to systems with several hundred buses while preserving full feasibility. Ablation studies confirm that the latent generation pipeline is a necessary condition for physical feasibility and that the interaction prior functions as a late-stage tail-risk controller.

Modern power systems increasingly require probabilistic forecasts amid interacting uncertainties from renewable intermittency, flexible demand, market volatility, and weather-dependent generation. However, existing methods often treat multi-scale decomposition, exogenous-variable alignment, and probabilistic output as separate steps, obscuring how predictable structures and uncertainty-bearing fluctuations jointly shape the forecast distribution. This paper proposes a state-space exogenous-context and temporal-frequency resolution architecture for general probabilistic energy forecasting. Its central premise is that trend-periodic components primarily determine the baseline trajectory, whereas high-frequency residuals and external perturbations govern the spread and asymmetry of forecast uncertainty. Accordingly, the architecture adaptively separates deterministic and residual streams, aligns exogenous context with both, refines the deterministic backbone through multi-resolution spectral-temporal state-space modeling, and estimates ordered quantile boundaries from their complementary representations. Experiments on load, price, solar, and wind forecasting achieve the best continuous ranked probability score in 14 of 18 settings, reducing average CRPS by 5.74% and upper-tail quantile risk by 7.27% over the strongest baselines. These results support deterministic-stochastic separation as an effective design principle for general probabilistic energy forecasting.

Equitable renewable-energy planning is a sequential decision problem, but the decision variables available to a public planner differ sharply between mature and emerging economies. In the former the government largely builds generation, while in the latter it steers private investment through incentives and quotas. We formulate socially-equitable renewable-energy budget allocation as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and, using a single problem-agnostic solver interface, compare the same policies across the two settings: eight U.S. cities (a mature economy) and West Java, Indonesia (an emerging economy). The results show that across both settings, a receding-horizon value-iteration policy dominates. In the U.S., it reaches 66% renewable penetration while cutting the underserved low-income population by 96% versus a random baseline. In West Java it closes the low-access gap while crowding in the most private capital. More interestingly, a naive market-chasing heuristic, which is mildly sub-optimal in the U.S., could yield catastrophic outcomes in Indonesia, by underserving every low-access region, because chasing attractive markets and serving the underserved goals diverge once the planner acts through private developers.

Large-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs) require O&M decisions that combine alarms, cell-level measurements, device topology, diagnostic tables, historical cases, and maintenance documents. Monitoring platforms can flag threshold violations, but they often cannot explain whether voltage inconsistency, resistance drift, short-circuit risk, capacity divergence, or thermal abnormality needs intervention. This digest presents a traceable BESS fault-diagnosis assistant that uses retrieval-augmented multi-agent reasoning to connect operational data, domain knowledge, visual evidence, and report generation. Reliability is improved through BESS-specific task routing, schema-constrained natural-language database access, hybrid text-image retrieval, and evidence-based answer synthesis. Preliminary internal evaluation is reported for routing, database access, and diagnostic reasoning.

Accurate energy demand forecasting is essential for the reliable operation and planning of modern sustainable energy systems. Spatial-temporal graph neural networks (STGNNs) have recently achieved strong performance in point forecasting by jointly modeling temporal dynamics and relational dependencies across interconnected energy nodes. However, in real-world energy systems, accurate point forecasts alone are insufficient, as operators also require reliable uncertainty estimates to support risk-aware decision-making, grid stability, and operational planning under uncertainty. Conformal prediction provides a principled and model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with statistical coverage guarantees, making it particularly attractive for safety-critical energy applications. However, existing conformal prediction approaches often fail to fully capture the complex spatial-temporal structure of energy systems. To address these limitations, we propose STOIC (Spatial-Temporal Graph Conformal Prediction with In-Context Learning), a novel framework that integrates graph-based forecasting with the zero-shot calibration capabilities of tabular foundation models. STOIC first generates point forecasts using an STGNN and subsequently reformulates spatial-temporal residuals into a tabular representation suitable for in-context learning. Leveraging a tabular foundation model, STOIC calibrates prediction intervals without task-specific retraining, effectively capturing both sequential and relational dependencies. We evaluate STOIC on five diverse benchmarks, including synthetic simulations as well as real-world electricity and district heating networks. Across all datasets, STOIC consistently outperforms existing conformal prediction baselines, delivering more reliable and robust uncertainty estimates for complex graph-structured energy time series.

Residential battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly deployed alongside photovoltaic (PV) generation to reduce household energy costs under volatile time-of-use (TOU) tariffs. Model predictive control (MPC) is a widely adopted optimisation strategy for home energy management systems (HEMS), typically formulated to minimise net energy cost, subject to physical and operational constraints. However, battery degradation is rarely embedded in the optimisation objective, meaning its cost is unquantified and aggressive; high-cycle-count strategies could incur significant losses once deployed to physical systems. This paper presents a receding-horizon mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) baseline for a UK residential HEMS, using demand data from the REFIT dataset. A 3 by 3 sensitivity study is conducted across three battery sizes and three PV array sizes, with post-hoc degradation cost estimated using the Naumann stress model and rainflow cycle counting. Results show that degradation remains constant for each battery size and can exceed energy cost savings by up to 1,060 %. These results demonstrate that energy-cost-only optimisation systematically underestimates the true system cost, motivating a degradation-aware control formulation.

Renewable energy is essential for meeting future energy demands; however, solar energy generation, which occurs only during daylight hours often does not align with household consumption patterns. Appliances such as cookers, washing machines, and dryers are typically operated according to user preferred schedules rather than solar energy availability, creating a scheduling optimization problem. The objective is to determine optimal appliance start times to maximize renewable energy utilization while minimizing user inconvenience and adhering to system constraints. This paper presents a metaheuristic approach using Iterated Local Search (ILS) and Simulated Annealing (SA) to optimize appliance start times, while considering appliance operating durations, power consumption, inverter limit, battery state of charge constraints, and solar generation forecasts. Unlike most existing work, the scheduling is extended beyond a single day to accommodate unfinished tasks from previous days (spillover), ensuring operational continuity and enabling sequential operation across multiple days. Experimental results show that the sequential multi-day scheduling framework effectively manages system constraints while ensuring user convenience under exclusive solar generation. These findings also open opportunities for future research on multi-objective trade-offs between investment in equipment of various sizes, return on that investment, and user satisfaction.

The rapid growth of Electric Vehicle (EV) adoption challenges power distribution networks through peak load spikes, voltage instability, and transformer overloads from uncoordinated charging. While Model Predictive Control (MPC) and standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) methods have addressed these issues, existing approaches rarely treat real-time carbon intensity or fluctuating renewable energy (RE) availability as primary scheduling objectives, leaving substantial decarbonisation potential unrealised. This paper proposes an emission-aware RL strategy based on the Soft Actor Critic (SAC) algorithm, with a multi-objective reward that penalises carbon emissions, curtailed on-site renewables, and unmet user demand. The agent is trained within a unified benchmarking framework on the EV2Gym platform, incorporating behind-the-meter solar and wind profiles, time-varying EirGrid carbon intensity data, and realistic workplace EV behaviour across 25 Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) units. Nine control strategies, including heuristics, emission-aware MPC variants, and the proposed RL agent, are compared under five renewable penetration scenarios (0%-50%) over ten independent runs each. The RL agent achieves a carbon intensity as low as 23.96 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour under 50% wind penetration, representing up to 87% emission reduction versus the uncontrolled baseline, and outperforms the external graph-based Power Distribution Network (PDN) benchmark. Transformer overload remains below 7 kWh across scenarios, against up to 1093 kWh for the As Fast As Possible (AFAP) heuristic, and renewable self-consumption reaches 52% under combined wind and solar supply. Embedding carbon intensity forecasts into the RL state and reward aligns charging with low-emission periods while preserving grid compliance and user satisfaction.

The growing share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in modern power systems increases both grid imbalances and frequency deviations, reinforcing the need for ancillary services such as Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) and passive balancing. Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) are well-suited for these services, but prior research typically relies on uniform FCR bids that remain constant throughout the control period. Such static bids fail to fully exploit BESS flexibility, as they do not balance the trade-off between reserving energy for FCR delivery and using it for imbalance arbitrage, limiting the achievable value in value-stacking settings. To address this limitation, we propose a two-stage control framework for the European context that introduces non-uniform FCR bids. In the first stage, we derive a time-varying bid sequence using data-driven Monte Carlo (MC) optimization. In the second stage, a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agent leverages the residual flexibility for real-time imbalance trading while proactively managing the State of Energy (SoE) to ensure compliance with FCR requirements. The framework is presented as a proof of concept, highlighting the potential benefits of time-varying bidding strategies. By incorporating daily cycle budgets and time-varying reserve commitments, our approach achieves a 7.56% profit increase compared to uniform baselines. These results show that non-uniform bidding can unlock additional value by more effectively aligning reserve obligations with rapidly changing imbalance opportunities.

We introduce ShapeCodeBench, a synthetic benchmark for perception-to-program reconstruction: given a rendered raster image, a model must emit an executable drawing program that a deterministic evaluator re-renders and compares with the target. The v1 DSL has four primitives on a 512 x 512 black-on-white canvas, but every instance is generated from a seeded RNG, so fresh held-out sets can be created to reduce exact-instance contamination. We release a frozen eval_v1 split with 150 samples across easy, medium, and hard tiers, scored by exact match, pixel accuracy, foreground IoU, parse success, and execution success. We evaluate an empty-program floor, a classical computer-vision heuristic, Claude Opus 4.7 at high and max effort, and GPT-5.5 at medium and extra_high reasoning effort. The heuristic is competitive on easy scenes but collapses when overlaps fuse components; the strongest multimodal configuration preserves much of the foreground structure but still misses exact match because of small parameter errors. Best overall exact match remains low, so ShapeCodeBench is far from saturated. The benchmark code, frozen dataset, run artifacts, and paper sources are released to support independent replication and extension.

Real-time supervisory control of thermal energy distribution systems requires digital twins that are accurate, interpretable, and uncertainty-aware, yet remain data and computationally efficient. High-fidelity simulations alone are costly, while purely data-driven surrogates often lack robustness. To address these challenges, this work proposes an active learning (AL) framework that couples system-level Modelica simulations with four simpler physics-informed and data-driven surrogate modeling approaches: deterministic Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDyC), its probabilistic multivariate-Gaussian extension (MvG-SINDyC), feedforward neural network (FNN), and gated recurrent unit (GRU) network. Tailored to each surrogate, model-specific AL query strategies are employed, including Mahalanobis-distance sampling in coefficient space for MvG-SINDyC and error-based sampling in prediction space for SINDyC, FNN, and GRU, allowing the learning process to prioritize dynamically informative trajectories. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the glycol heat exchanger (GHX) subsystem of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. Across key GHX outputs--the bypass mass flow rate $\dot{m}_{\mathrm{GHX}}$ and heat transfer rate $Q_{\mathrm{GHX}}$-the AL framework achieves comparable predictive accuracy using as few as one-fifth of the simulation trajectories required by random sampling. Among the evaluated surrogates, the GRU achieves the highest predictive fidelity, while SINDyC remains the most computationally efficient and interpretable. The probabilistic MvG-SINDyC surrogate further enables uncertainty quantification and exhibits the largest computational gains under AL.

Real-world control systems must achieve long-horizon objectives (liveness) while respecting continuous-time safety constraints, a combination that motivates hierarchical layered control architectures (LCAs). Existing LCA research, however, lacks (i) a uniform specification language across discrete planning and continuous execution, (ii) formal guarantees that specifications are preserved when interconnecting subsystems at heterogeneous time scales, and (iii) compositional separation between layers, owing to reliance on naive input-filtering laws. This paper addresses all three gaps by importing the safety--liveness decomposition into a heterogeneous assume--guarantee framework: \emph{safety is enforced by invariance} at the continuous-time layer, while \emph{liveness is achieved through refinement} at the discrete-time layer, with inter-layer coordination formalized via vertical refinement and timing-compatibility conditions. We instantiate this contract with a novel LCA combining an MPC planner, an input-to-state stabilizing (ISS) low-level controller, and a reference-governor bridge, and validate it on a Hybrid Energy Storage System (HESS) comprising a battery and a supercapacitor.

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only to support operational decisions, such as optimal bidding strategies and balancing power preparation, but also to reduce economic risk and improve market efficiency. Probabilistic forecasts are particularly valuable because they quantify uncertainty stemming from renewable intermittency, market coupling, and regulatory changes, enabling market participants to make informed decisions that minimize losses and optimize expected revenues. However, it remains an open question which models to employ to produce accurate forecasts. Should these be task-specific machine learning (ML) models or Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs)? In this work, we compare four models for day-ahead probabilistic EPF (PEPF) in European bidding zones: a deterministic NHITS backbone with Quantile-Regression Averaging (NHITS+QRA) and a conditional Normalizing-Flow forecaster (NF) are compared with two TSFMs, namely Moirai and ChronosX. On the one hand, we find that TSFMs outperform task-specific deep learning models trained from scratch in terms of CRPS, Energy Score, and predictive interval calibration across market conditions. On the other hand, we find that well-configured task-specific models, particularly NHITS combined with QRA, achieve performance very close to TSFMs, and in some scenarios, such as when supplied with additional informative feature groups or adapted via few-shot learning from other European markets, they can even surpass TSFMs. Overall, our findings show that while TSFMs offer expressive modeling capabilities, conventional models remain highly competitive, emphasizing the need to weigh computational expense against marginal performance improvements in PEPF.

AI and renewable energy are increasingly framed as a "power couple," on the premise that surging AI demand will accelerate clean-energy investment, yet concerns persist that AI will entrench fossil-fuel carbon lock-in. We reconcile these views by modeling the equilibrium between AI growth and renewable investment. In a parsimonious game, a policymaker designs policies that guide investment in renewable capacity for AI, while an AI developer chooses its model's capability. The equilibrium depends on scaling regimes and market incentives. When the market payoff to capability is supermodular and performance gains are near-linear in compute (so the market rewards capability at least as fast as scaling raises its energy cost), developers push toward frontier scale even when the marginal megawatt-hour is fossil-based. In this regime, renewable expansion mainly relaxes scaling constraints rather than displacing fossil generation; clean capacity remains insufficient and fossil dependence persists. This yields an "adaptation trap": as climate damages rise, the value of AI-enabled adaptation increases, which strengthens incentives to enable frontier scaling while tolerating residual fossil use. When AI faces diminishing returns and lower scaling efficiency (so energy requirements outrun the market value of capability), energy costs discipline capability choices; renewable investment then both enables capability and decarbonizes marginal compute, generating an "adaptation pathway" in which climate stress spurs clean-capacity expansion toward a carbon-free equilibrium. A calibrated case study illustrates both mechanisms using observed magnitudes. The findings suggest that effective AI decarbonization requires policies that keep clean capacity binding at the margin as compute expands.

Decarbonization of isolated or off-grid energy systems through phase-in of large shares of intermittent solar or wind generation requires co-installation of energy storage or continued use of existing fossil dispatchable power sources to balance supply and demand. The effective CO2 emission reduction depends on the relative capacity of the energy storage and renewable sources, the stochasticity of the renewable generation, and the control of the isolated energy system. While the operation of the energy storage and dispatchable sources impacts the optimal sizing of the system, it is challenging to account for the effect of finite-horizon optimal control at the stage of system sizing. In this work, we present a flexible and computationally efficient sizing framework for energy storage and renewable capacity in isolated energy systems, accounting for uncertainty in the renewable generation and the optimal control. We implement an imitation learning approach to stochastic neural model predictive control (MPC) which allows us to relate the battery storage and wind peak capacities to the emissions reduction and investment costs while accounting for finite horizon, optimal control without solving an infeasible number of optimization problems. We evaluate the proposed sizing framework on a case study of an offshore energy system with a gas turbine, a wind farm and a battery energy storage system (BESS). In this case, we find a nonlinear, nontrivial relationship between the investment costs and the reduction in gas usage for different wind and BESS capacities.