Bayesian Inference

Ask about this topic

Overview

Bayesian inference combines prior beliefs with observed data to form a posterior distribution over unknown quantities, supporting predictions and decisions that account for uncertainty. Common approaches include Markov chain Monte Carlo, variational inference, Laplace approximations, and simulation-based inference; neural networks and normalizing flows increasingly help approximate or amortize these computations. Applications range from scientific inverse problems and time-series models to causal analysis, machine learning, and robotics. A central challenge is making inference scalable without losing posterior accuracy or calibrated uncertainty, especially when priors or likelihood models are misspecified.

Latest papers

CardsList

318 papers48 papers in the last four weeks, up 109% on the four weeks before. 0.3% of all new papers.

  1. Fast Bayesian equipment condition monitoring via simulation based inference: applications to heat exchanger health

    Apr 22, 2026Peter Collett, Alexander Johannes Stasik, Simone Casolo +1Simulation-Based InferenceEfficient Inference

    Cognite AS, Oslo, Norway · Department of Data Science, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway · Department for Mathematics and Cybernetics, SINTEF Digital, Oslo, Norway

  2. Tokenised Flow Matching for Hierarchical Simulation Based Inference

    Apr 22, 2026Giovanni Charles, Cosmo Santoni, Seth Flaxman +1Flow MatchingSimulation-Based Inference

    Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom · University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

  3. On Bayesian Softmax-Gated Mixture-of-Experts Models

    Apr 22, 2026Nicola Bariletto, Huy Nguyen, Nhat Ho +1Bayesian Mixture ModelsBayesian Inference

    The University of Texas at Austin

  4. MoBayes: A Modular Bayesian Framework for Separating Reasoning from Language in Conversational Clinical Decision Support

    Apr 21, 2026Yusuf Kesmen, Fay Elhassan, Jiayi Ma +7Selective PredictionClinical Decision Support

    LiGHT, EPFL · University of Bern · CLAN, Aarhus University

  5. Local Inconsistency Resolution: The Interplay between Attention and Control in Probabilistic Models

    Apr 18, 2026Oliver E. Richardson, Mandana Samiei, Mehran Shakerinava +4Bayesian InferenceProbabilistic Graphical Models

    Université de Montréal · School of Computer Science, McGill University · Institut Polytechnique de Paris +1

  6. Doubly Outlier-Robust Online Infinite Hidden Markov Model

    Apr 15, 2026Horace Yiu, Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt, Álvaro Cartea +1Hidden Markov ModelsRobust Estimation

    Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford · Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance

  7. Fast and principled equation discovery from chaos to climate

    Apr 13, 2026Yuzheng Zhang, Weizhen Li, Rui CarvalhoSparse Identification of Nonlinear DynamicsScientific Discovery

    Department of Engineering, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom. · College of Control Science and Engineering, Zhejiang University, 38 Zheda Rd.(Yuquan Campus), Hangzhou, 310027, P.R. China. · Institute for Data Science, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom.

  8. Active Bayesian Inference for Robust Control under Sensor False Data Injection Attacks

    Apr 13, 2026Axel Andersson, György DánCPS SecurityCyber-Physical Systems

    Department of Network and Systems Engineering, School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden

  9. High-dimensional inference for the γγ-ray sky with differentiable programming

    Apr 9, 2026Siddharth Mishra-Sharma, Tracy R. Slatyer, Yitian Sun +1Bayesian InferenceHigh-Energy Physics

    Faculty of Computing and Data Sciences, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA · 2The NSF AI Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Fundamental Interactions · Center for Theoretical Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA +2

  10. Amortized Filtering and Smoothing with Conditional Normalizing Flows

    Apr 8, 2026Tiangang Cui, Xiaodong Feng, Chenlong Pei +2Bayesian FilteringData Assimilation

    School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia · Institute of Advanced Study, Beijing Normal-Hong Kong Baptist University, Zhuhai 519087, China · SKLMS & Institute of Computational Mathematics and Scientific/Engineering Computing, Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences +1

  11. HaloProbe: Bayesian Detection and Mitigation of Object Hallucinations in Vision-Language Models

    Apr 7, 2026Reihaneh Zohrabi, Hosein Hasani, Akshita Gupta +3Hallucination Detection in VLMsObject Hallucination in VLMs

    Multimodal AI Lab, Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany · Department of Computer Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

  12. A Tensor-Train Framework for Bayesian Inference in High-Dimensional Systems: Applications to MIMO Detection and Channel Decoding

    Apr 7, 2026Luca Schmid, Dominik Sulz, Shrinivas Chimmalgi +1Bayesian InferenceEfficient Inference

    Communications Engineering Lab (CEL), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hertzstr. 16, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany · Technical University of Munich (TUM), Boltzmannstr. 3, 85748 Garching b. München, Germany · Qoherent, Toronto, ON, Canada

  13. Avoiding Non-Integrable Beliefs in Expectation Propagation

    Apr 5, 2026Zilu Zhao, Jichao Chen, Dirk SlockBayesian InferenceVariational Inference

    Communication Systems Department, EURECOM, France

  14. Multirate Stein Variational Gradient Descent for Efficient Bayesian Sampling

    Apr 5, 2026Arash SarsharStein Variational Gradient DescentBayesian Inference

    Department of Computer Engineering and Computer Science, California State University, Long Beach, 90840, CA, USA

  15. Sparse Bayesian Learning Algorithms Revisited: From Learning Majorizers to Structured Algorithmic Learning using Neural Networks

    Apr 2, 2026Rushabha Balaji, Kuan-Lin Chen, Danijela Cabric +1Sparse RecoveryLearning to Optimize

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA

  16. 3-D Relative Localization for Multi-Robot Systems with Angle and Self-Displacement Measurements

    Apr 2, 2026Chenyang Liang, Liangming Chen, Baoyi Cui +1MAP EstimationRelative Pose Estimation

    School of Intelligence Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China. · School of Automation and Intelligent Manufacturing, and Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Fully Actuated System Control Theory and Technology, Southern University of Science and Technology, China. · Guangdong Key Laboratory of Intelligent Morphing Mechanisms and Adaptive Robotics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China.

  17. AutoStan: Autonomous Bayesian Model Improvement via Predictive Feedback

    Mar 29, 2026Oliver DürrProbabilistic ProgrammingBayesian Inference

    Thurgau Institute for Digital Transformation (TIDIT), Switzerland

  18. Variational Learning of Fractional Posteriors

    Mar 29, 2026Kian Ming A. Chai, Edwin V. BonillaBayesian InferenceVariational Inference

    DSO National Laboratories, Singapore · CSIRO’s Data61, Australia

  19. tBayes-MICE: A Bayesian Approach to Multiple Imputation for Time Series Data

    Mar 28, 2026Amuche Ibenegbu, Pierre Lafaye de Micheaux, Rohitash ChandraTime Series ImputationIncomplete Data Imputation

    Transitional Artificial Intelligence Research Group School of Mathematics and Statistics UNSW Sydney Australia · School of Mathematics and Statistics UNSW Sydney Australia

  20. Automatic Laplace Collapsed Sampling: Scalable Marginalisation of Latent Parameters via Automatic Differentiation

    Mar 27, 2026Toby Lovick, David Yallup, Will HandleyBayesian InferenceLatent Variable Models

    Institute of Astronomy, University of Cambridge · Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge · Institute of Astronomy & Kavli Institute for Cosmology, University of Cambridge

  21. SPDE Methods for Nonparametric Bayesian Posterior Contraction and Laplace Approximation

    Mar 23, 2026Enric Alberola-Boloix, Ioar Casado-TelletxeaPosterior ContractionStochastic PDEs

    Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao (Spain)

  22. Adapting Point Cloud Analysis via Multimodal Bayesian Distribution Learning

    Mar 23, 2026Xingyu Zhu, Liang Yi, Shuo Wang +4Bayesian Model AveragingTest-Time Adaptation of VLMs

    MoE Key Lab of BIPC, University of Science and Technology of China · Opus AI Research · Southeast University +1

  23. Rule-State Inference (RSI): A Bayesian Framework for Compliance Monitoring in Rule-Governed Domains

    Mar 23, 2026Abdou-Raouf AtarmlaAI Regulatory ComplianceBayesian Inference

    Institut National des Postes et Télécommunications (INPT), Rabat, Morocco · Togo DataLab, Ministry of Digital Economy, Lomé, Togo

  24. Time-adaptive infinite-dimensional Gaussian process regression on manifolds

    Mar 22, 2026MD Ruiz-Medina, AE Madrid, A Torres-Signes +1Empirical BayesBayesian Inference

  25. Computation-Utility-Privacy Tradeoffs in Bayesian Estimation

    Mar 18, 2026Sitan Chen, Jingqiu Ding, Mahbod Majid +1Differential PrivacyBayesian Inference

    Harvard · ETH Zurich · MIT

  26. Adaptive Domain Models: Bayesian Evolution, Warm Rotation, and Principled Training for Geometric and Neuromorphic AI

    Mar 18, 2026Houston HaynesEfficient Language Model InferenceBayesian Inference

    Braidpoint, Asheville, NC

  27. Bayesian Inference of Psychometric Variables From Brain and Behavior in Implicit Association Tests

    Mar 17, 2026Christian A. Kothe, Sean Mullen, Michael V. Bronstein +7Bayesian InferenceHierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    Intheon, La Jolla, CA, USA · Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of Minnesota, MN, USA · Institute for Health Informatics, University of Minnesota, MN, USA +2

  28. Deep probabilistic model synthesis enables unified modeling of whole-brain neural activity across individual subjects

    Mar 15, 2026William E. Bishop, Luuk W. Hesselink, Bernhard Englitz +2Bayesian InferenceHierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    Janelia Research Campus, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Ashburn, VA · Now at Google Deepmind · Computational Neuroscience Lab, Donders Center for Neuroscience, Radboud University, Nijmegen, The Netherlands +2

  29. Frequentist Consistency of Prior-Data Fitted Networks for Causal Inference

    Mar 12, 2026Valentyn Melnychuk, Vahid Balazadeh, Stefan Feuerriegel +1Causal Effect EstimationPrior-Data Fitted Networks

    LMU Munich & Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML), Munich, Germany · University of Toronto & Vector Institute, Toronto, Canada

  30. Exponential-Family Membership Inference: From LiRA and RMIA to BaVarIA

    Mar 12, 2026Rickard BrännvallExponential FamilyMembership Inference Attacks

    RISE Research Institutes of Sweden