Causal Inference

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Causal inference asks what would change if a treatment, policy, or other factor were different, rather than merely measuring which variables move together. Researchers use randomized and quasi-experiments, causal graphs with adjustment, instrumental variables and proxies, and semiparametric or machine-learning estimators. Causal discovery from observational, time-series, and network data seeks structures that support these analyses, while counterfactual models help evaluate individual outcomes and policies. Results depend on assumptions—especially about hidden confounding, interference, and transport across populations—so sensitivity analysis, partial-identification bounds, and credible evaluation remain central challenges as generative and foundation models are explored.

Latest papers

318 papers34 papers in the last four weeks, up 13% on the four weeks before. 0.2% of all new papers.

Mar 11, 2026

Copula-ResLogit: A Deep-Copula Framework for Unobserved Confounding Effects

A key challenge in travel demand analysis is the presence of unobserved factors that may generate non-causal dependencies, obscuring the true causal effects. To address the issue, the study introduces a novel deep learning based fully interpretable joint modelling framework, Copula-ResLogit, which integrates the flexibility of Residual Neural Network (ResNet) architectures with the dependence capturing capabilities of copula models. This hybrid structure enables us to first detect unobserved confounding through traditional copula function based joint modelling and then mitigate these hidden associations by incorporating deep learning components. The study applies this framework to two case studies, including the relationship between stress levels and wait time of pedestrians when crossing mid block in VR and the dependencies between travel mode choice and travel distance in London travel behaviour data. Results show that Copula-ResLogit substantially reduces or eliminates the dependencies, demonstrating the ability of residual layers to account for hidden confounding effects.

Kimia Kamal, Bilal Farooq

Laboratory of Innovations in Transportation (LiTrans), Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, Canada

Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding Causal Inference Copula Models Discrete Choice Modeling

Mar 10, 2026

CIGPose: Causal Intervention Graph Neural Network for Whole-Body Pose Estimation

State-of-the-art whole-body pose estimators often lack robustness, producing anatomically implausible predictions in challenging scenes. We posit this failure stems from spurious correlations learned from visual context, a problem we formalize using a Structural Causal Model (SCM). The SCM identifies visual context as a confounder that creates a non-causal backdoor path, corrupting the model's reasoning. We introduce the Causal Intervention Graph Pose (CIGPose) framework to address this by approximating the true causal effect between visual evidence and pose. The core of CIGPose is a novel Causal Intervention Module: it first identifies confounded keypoint representations via predictive uncertainty and then replaces them with learned, context-invariant canonical embeddings. These deconfounded embeddings are processed by a hierarchical graph neural network that reasons over the human skeleton at both local and global semantic levels to enforce anatomical plausibility. Extensive experiments show CIGPose achieves a new state-of-the-art on COCO-WholeBody. Notably, our CIGPose-x model achieves 67.0% AP, surpassing prior methods that rely on extra training data. With the additional UBody dataset, CIGPose-x is further boosted to 67.5% AP, demonstrating superior robustness and data efficiency. The codes and models are publicly available at https://github.com/53mins/CIGPose.

Bohao Li, Zhicheng Cao, Huixian Li +1

School of Computer Science, Northwestern Polytechnical University · Xidian University · School of Cybersecurity, Northwestern Polytechnical University

Human Pose Estimation Causal Inference

Mar 10, 2026

Proxy-Guided Measurement Calibration

Aggregate outcome variables collected through surveys and administrative records are often subject to systematic measurement error. For instance, in disaster loss databases, county-level losses reported may differ from the true damages due to variations in on-the-ground data collection capacity, reporting practices, and event characteristics. Such miscalibration complicates downstream analysis and decision-making. We study the problem of outcome miscalibration and propose a framework guided by proxy variables for estimating and correcting the systematic errors. We model the data-generating process using a causal graph that separates latent content variables driving the true outcome from the latent bias variables that induce systematic errors. The key insight is that proxy variables that depend on the true outcome but are independent of the bias mechanism provide identifying information for quantifying the bias. Leveraging this structure, we introduce a two-stage approach that utilizes variational autoencoders to disentangle content and bias latents, enabling us to estimate the effect of bias on the outcome of interest. We analyze the assumptions underlying our approach and evaluate it on synthetic data, semi-synthetic datasets derived from randomized trials, and a real-world case study of disaster loss reporting.

Saketh Vishnubhatla, Shu Wan, Andre Harrison +2

Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ · DEVCOM Army Research Lab, Adelphi, MD

Proximal Causal Inference Causal Inference Causal Identifiability

Mar 9, 2026

Statistical Inference via Generative Models: Flow Matching and Causal Inference

Generative AI has achieved remarkable empirical success, but from the perspective of statistics it often remains opaque: its predictions may be accurate, yet the underlying mechanism is difficult to interpret, analyze, and trust. This book reinterprets generative AI in the language of statistics, using flow matching as a central example. The key idea is that generative models should be understood not merely as devices for producing plausible data, but as methods for the nonparametric learning of high-dimensional probability distributions. From this viewpoint, missing-data imputation becomes principled sampling from learned conditional distributions, counterfactual analysis becomes the estimation of intervention distributions, and distributional dynamics become statistically analyzable objects. Mathematically, flow matching represents distributional deformation through the continuity equation and a time-dependent velocity field, thereby extending score matching from the learning of static score fields to the learning of transport paths themselves. Building on this foundation, the book develops a statistical framework in which generative models are used to estimate nuisance components while inferential validity is maintained through orthogonalization and cross-fitting in the spirit of double/debiased machine learning. Applications to survival analysis, censoring, missingness, and causal inference show how generative models can be integrated into statistical inference for structured high-dimensional problems.

Shinto Eguchi

Causal Inference Flow Matching Flow-Based Generative Modeling

Mar 8, 2026

How Wrong Can Your Counterfactual Be? Quantifying Confounding Bias for Continuous Treatments without a Control Group

Stress testing poses a causal question: how would portfolio credit losses change if the macroeconomy followed an adverse counterfactual path? Yet standard practice remains predictive and might be therefore vulnerable to omitted-variable bias. We propose a partial identification framework for causal stress testing in panel data with a continuous common treatment and no control group. By assuming that the unobserved confounder affects outcome and macro variables additively, we derive a closed-form confounding envelope parameterized by two interpretable sensitivity parameters. We further analyze two practical estimators -- recursive rollout and direct multi-horizon prediction -- derive non-asymptotic error bounds, and characterize when recursive compounding makes direct estimation preferable. For inference, we combine the identification envelope with importance-weighted conformal prediction, yielding finite-sample intervals that separate estimation uncertainty from identification uncertainty under covariate shift. In semi-synthetic experiments built from real U.S. unemployment paths, standard high-accuracy predictive models remain causally biased and substantially under-cover, whereas the proposed framework achieves near-nominal coverage across stress horizons.

Yu Wang, Xiangchen Liu, Siguang Li

Department of Economics, Cornell University. · Department of Family and Consumer Sciences, California State University, Long Beach. · Society Hub, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou).

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Partial Identification Sensitivity Analysis

Mar 7, 2026

Masking Causality and Conditional Dependence

Many regulatory and analytic problems require that a prohibited variable influence a decision only through a designated allowable channel -- a conditional-independence requirement that arises in path-specific fairness, the handling of classified information, and the regulation of trading on non-public information, among other settings. Such requirements may be enforced either stratum-by-stratum or, more commonly (and more efficiently), through a single averaged constraint on the conditional effect. We study the resulting enforcement problem from two perspectives. From the regulator's side, we formulate causal masking as a linear program and show that averaged-constraint optimization almost surely produces policies that violate the stratum-wise requirement while satisfying the averaged one exactly. The gains from masking grow with confounding and outcome heterogeneity, and detection requires precisely the conditional-independence tests that average constraints aim to avoid. From the optimizer's side, the same construction shows that masked policies recover most of the reward of unconstrained exploitation while being far harder to detect, making them attractive in any setting where the basis of decisions is itself sensitive. Together, these results argue that regulating direct dependence through averaged statistics on observed decisions is structurally limited, and that meaningful enforcement must operate at the level of the decision rule itself.

Zou Yang, Sophia Xiao, Bijan Mazaheri

Thayer School of Engineering Dartmouth College Hanover, NH, 03755

Causal Inference Algorithmic Fairness

Mar 5, 2026

Debiasing Sequential Recommendation with Time-aware Inverse Propensity Scoring

Sequential Recommendation (SR) predicts users next interactions by modeling the temporal order of their historical behaviors. Existing approaches, including traditional sequential models and generative recommenders, achieve strong performance but primarily rely on explicit interactions such as clicks or purchases while overlooking item exposures. This ignorance introduces selection bias, where exposed but unclicked items are misinterpreted as disinterest, and exposure bias, where unexposed items are treated as irrelevant. Effectively addressing these biases requires distinguishing between items that were "not exposed" and those that were "not of interest", which cannot be reliably inferred from correlations in historical data. Counterfactual reasoning provides a natural solution by estimating user preferences under hypothetical exposure, and Inverse Propensity Scoring (IPS) is a common tool for such estimation. However, conventional IPS methods are static and fail to capture the sequential dependencies and temporal dynamics of user behavior. To overcome these limitations, we propose Time aware Inverse Propensity Scoring (TIPS). Unlike traditional static IPS, TIPS effectively accounts for sequential dependencies and temporal dynamics, thereby capturing user preferences more accurately. Extensive experiments show that TIPS consistently enhances recommendation performance as a plug-in for various sequential recommenders. Our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Sirui Huang, Jing Long, Qian Li +2

Hong Kong Polytechinic University Hong Kong SAR, China · University of Technology Sydney Sydney, Australia · Curtin University Perth, Australia +1

Exposure Bias Sequential Recommendation Inverse Probability Weighting Causal Inference

Mar 4, 2026

Observationally Informed Adaptive Causal Experimental Design

Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) represent the gold standard for causal inference yet remain a scarce resource. While large-scale observational data is often available, it is utilized only for retrospective fusion, and remains discarded in prospective trial design due to bias concerns. We argue this "tabula rasa" data acquisition strategy is fundamentally inefficient. In this work, we propose Active Residual Learning, a new paradigm that leverages the observational model as a foundational prior. This approach shifts the experimental focus from learning target causal quantities from scratch to efficiently estimating the residuals required to correct observational bias. To operationalize this, we introduce the R-Design framework. Theoretically, we establish two key advantages: (1) a structural efficiency gap, proving that estimating smooth residual contrasts admits strictly faster convergence rates than reconstructing full outcomes; and (2) information efficiency, where we quantify the redundancy in standard parameter-based acquisition (e.g., BALD), demonstrating that such baselines waste budget on task-irrelevant nuisance uncertainty. We propose R-EPIG (Residual Expected Predictive Information Gain), a unified criterion that directly targets the causal estimand, minimizing residual uncertainty for estimation or clarifying decision boundaries for policy. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks demonstrate that R-Design significantly outperforms baselines, confirming that repairing a biased model is far more efficient than learning one from scratch.

Erdun Gao, Liang Zhang, Jake Fawkes +5

Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University · Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · University College London +3

Active Experimental Design Causal Inference Causal Effect Estimation Adaptive Sampling Bayesian Experimental Design Residual Learning

Mar 3, 2026

Controllable Generative Sandbox for Causal Inference

Method validation and study design in causal inference rely on synthetic data with known counterfactuals. Existing simulators trade off distributional realism, the ability to capture mixed-type and multimodal tabular data, against causal controllability, including explicit control over overlap, unmeasured confounding, and treatment effect heterogeneity. We introduce CausalMix, a variational generative framework that closes this gap by coupling a mixture of Gaussian latent priors with data-type-specific decoders for continuous, binary, and categorical variables. The model incorporates explicit causal controls: an overlap regularizer shaping propensity-score distributions, alongside direct parameterizations of confounding strength and effect heterogeneity. This unified objective preserves fidelity to the observed data while enabling factorial manipulation of causal mechanisms, allowing overlap, confounding strength, and treatment effect heterogeneity to be varied independently at design time. Across benchmarks, CausalMix achieves state-of-the-art distributional metrics on mixed-type tables while providing stable, fine-grained causal control. We demonstrate practical utility in a comparative safety study of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer treatments, using CausalMix to compare estimators under calibrated data-generating processes, tune hyperparameters, and conduct simulation-based power analyses under targeted treatment effect heterogeneity scenarios.

Qi Zhang, Harsh Parikh, Ashley Naimi +3

Emory University · Yale University · Amgen

Synthetic Data Generation Causal Inference Conditional Generative Modeling

Mar 3, 2026

Generalized Bayes for Causal Inference

Uncertainty quantification is central to many applications of causal machine learning, yet principled Bayesian inference for causal effects remains challenging. Standard Bayesian approaches typically require specifying a probabilistic model for the data-generating process, including high-dimensional nuisance components such as propensity scores and outcome regressions. Standard posteriors are thus vulnerable to strong modeling choices, including complex prior elicitation. In this paper, we propose a generalized Bayesian framework for causal inference. Our framework avoids explicit likelihood modeling; instead, we place priors directly on the causal estimands and update these using an identification-driven loss function, which yields generalized posteriors for causal effects. As a result, our framework turns existing loss-based causal estimators into estimators with full uncertainty quantification. Our framework is flexible and applicable to a broad range of causal estimands (e.g., ATE, CATE). Further, our framework can be applied on top of state-of-the-art causal machine learning pipelines (e.g., Neyman-orthogonal meta-learners). For Neyman-orthogonal losses, we show that the generalized posteriors converge to their oracle counterparts and remain robust to first-stage nuisance estimation error. With calibration, we thus obtain valid frequentist uncertainty even when nuisance estimators converge at slower-than-parametric rates. Empirically, we demonstrate that our proposed framework offers causal effect estimation with calibrated uncertainty across several causal inference settings. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first flexible framework for constructing generalized Bayesian posteriors for causal machine learning.

Emil Javurek, Dennis Frauen, Yuxin Wang +1

LMU Munich · Munich Center for Machine Learning

Generalized Bayesian Inference Causal Inference Causal Effect Estimation Bayesian Inference

Mar 3, 2026

Distributed Dynamic Invariant Causal Prediction in Environmental Time Series

The extraction of invariant causal relationships from time series data with environmental attributes is critical for robust decision-making in domains such as climate science and environmental monitoring. However, existing methods either emphasize dynamic causal analysis without leveraging environmental contexts or focus on static invariant causal inference, leaving a gap in distributed temporal settings. In this paper, we propose Distributed Dynamic Invariant Causal Prediction in Time-series (DisDy-ICPT), a novel framework that learns dynamic causal relationships over time while mitigating spatial confounding variables without requiring data communication. We theoretically prove that DisDy-ICPT recovers stable causal predictors within a bounded number of communication rounds under standard sampling assumptions. Empirical evaluations on synthetic benchmarks and environment-segmented real-world datasets show that DisDy-ICPT achieves superior predictive stability and accuracy compared to baseline methods A and B. Our approach offers promising applications in carbon monitoring and weather forecasting. Future work will extend DisDy-ICPT to online learning scenarios.

Ziruo Hao, Tao Yang, Xiaofeng Wu +1

Causal Inference Time-Series Causal Discovery Causal Discovery Causal Discovery with Latent Confounding

Mar 2, 2026

Estimating Visual Attribute Effects in Advertising from Observational Data: A Deepfake-Informed Double Machine Learning Approach

Digital advertising increasingly relies on visual content, yet marketers lack rigorous methods for understanding how specific visual attributes causally affect consumer engagement. This paper addresses a fundamental methodological challenge: estimating causal effects when the treatment, such as a model's skin tone, is an attribute embedded within the image itself. Standard approaches like Double Machine Learning (DML) fail in this setting because vision encoders entangle treatment information with confounding variables, producing severely biased estimates. We develop DICE-DML (Deepfake-Informed Control Encoder for Double Machine Learning), a framework that leverages generative AI to disentangle treatment from confounders. The approach combines three mechanisms: (1) deepfake-generated image pairs that isolate treatment variation; (2) DICE-Diff adversarial learning on paired difference vectors, where background signals cancel to reveal pure treatment fingerprints; and (3) orthogonal projection that geometrically removes treatment-axis components. In simulations with known ground truth, DICE-DML reduces root mean squared error by 73-97% compared to standard DML, with the strongest improvement (97.5%) at the null effect point, demonstrating robust Type I error control. Applying DICE-DML to 232,089 Instagram influencer posts, we estimate the causal effect of skin tone on engagement. Standard DML produces diagnostically invalid results (negative outcome R^2), while DICE-DML achieves valid confounding control (R^2 = 0.63) and estimates a marginally significant negative effect of darker skin tone (-522 likes; p = 0.062), substantially smaller than the biased standard estimate. Our framework provides a principled approach for causal inference with visual data when treatments and confounders coexist within images.

Yizhi Liu, Balaji Padmanabhan, Siva Viswanathan

Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Double ML Online Advertising

Mar 2, 2026

De-paradox Tree: Breaking Down Simpson's Paradox via A Kernel-Based Partition Algorithm

Real-world observational datasets and machine learning have revolutionized data-driven decision-making, yet many models rely on empirical associations that may be misleading due to confounding and subgroup heterogeneity. Simpson's paradox exemplifies this challenge, where aggregated and subgroup-level associations contradict each other, leading to misleading conclusions. Existing methods provide limited support for detecting and interpreting such paradoxical associations, especially for practitioners without deep causal expertise. We introduce De-paradox Tree, an interpretable algorithm designed to uncover hidden subgroup patterns behind paradoxical associations under assumed causal structures involving confounders and effect heterogeneity. It employs novel split criteria and balancing-based procedures to adjust for confounders and homogenize heterogeneous effects through recursive partitioning. Compared to state-of-the-art methods, De-paradox Tree builds simpler, more interpretable trees, selects relevant covariates, and identifies nested opposite effects while ensuring robust estimation of causal effects when causally admissible variables are provided. Our approach addresses the limitations of traditional causal inference and machine learning methods by introducing an interpretable framework that supports non-expert practitioners while explicitly acknowledging causal assumptions and scope limitations, enabling more reliable and informed decision-making in complex observational data environments.

Xian Teng, Yu-Ru Lin

University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Causal Inference Causal Reasoning Causal Effect Estimation Decision Tree Learning Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimation

Mar 2, 2026

Instrumental and Proximal Causal Inference with Gaussian Processes

Instrumental variable (IV) and proximal causal learning (Proxy) methods are central frameworks for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. Despite substantial methodological advances, existing approaches rarely provide reliable epistemic uncertainty (EU) quantification. We address this gap through a Deconditional Gaussian Process (DGP) framework for uncertainty-aware causal learning. Our formulation recovers popular kernel estimators as the posterior mean, ensuring predictive precision, while the posterior variance yields principled and well-calibrated EU. Moreover, the probabilistic structure enables systematic model selection via marginal log-likelihood optimization. Empirical results demonstrate strong predictive performance alongside informative EU quantification, evaluated via empirical coverage frequencies and decision-aware accuracy rejection curves. Together, our approach provides a unified, practical solution for causal inference under unobserved confounding with reliable uncertainty.

Yuqi Zhang, Krikamol Muandet, Dino Sejdinovic +2

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong · Rational Intelligence Lab, CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security, Germany · Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University, Australia +1

Proximal Causal Inference Causal Inference Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding Instrumental Variable Estimation Epistemic Uncertainty Gaussian Process Regression

Mar 2, 2026

Causal Neural Probabilistic Circuits

Concept Bottleneck Models (CBMs) enhance the interpretability of end-to-end neural networks by introducing a layer of concepts and predicting the class label from the concept predictions. A key property of CBMs is that they support interventions, i.e., domain experts can correct mispredicted concept values at test time to improve the final accuracy. However, typical CBMs apply interventions by overwriting only the corrected concept while leaving other concept predictions unchanged, which ignores causal dependencies among concepts. To address this, we propose the Causal Neural Probabilistic Circuit (CNPC), which combines a neural attribute predictor with a causal probabilistic circuit compiled from a causal graph. This circuit supports exact, tractable causal inference that inherently respects causal dependencies. Under interventions, CNPC models the class distribution based on a Product of Experts (PoE) that fuses the attribute predictor's predictive distribution with the interventional marginals computed by the circuit. We theoretically characterize the compositional interventional error of CNPC w.r.t. its modules and identify conditions under which CNPC closely matches the ground-truth interventional class distribution. Experiments on five benchmark datasets in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings show that, compared with five baseline models, CNPC achieves higher task accuracy across different numbers of intervened attributes.

Weixin Chen, Han Zhao

University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign

Concept Bottleneck Models Causal Intervention Probabilistic Circuits Causal Inference

Mar 2, 2026

Causal Effects with Unobserved Unit Types in Interacting Human-AI Systems

We study experiments on interacting populations of humans and AI agents, where both unit types and the interaction network remain unobserved. Although causal effects propagate throughout the system, the goal is to estimate effects on humans. Examples include online platforms where human users interact alongside AI-driven accounts. We assume a human-AI prior that gives each unit a probability of being human. While humans cannot be distinguished at the unit level, the prior allows us to compute the average human composition within large subpopulations. We then model outcome dynamics through a causal message passing (CMP) framework and analyze sample-mean outcomes across subpopulations. We show that by constructing subpopulations that vary in expected human composition and treatment exposure, one can consistently recover human-specific causal effects. Our results characterize when distributional knowledge of population composition (without observing unit types or the interaction network) is sufficient for identification. We validate the approach on a simulated human-AI platform driven by behaviorally differentiated LLM agents. Together, these results provide a theoretical and practical framework for experimentation in emerging human-AI systems.

William Overman, Sadegh Shirani, Mohsen Bayati

Graduate School of Business, Stanford University

Causal Effect Estimation Causal Inference Human-AI Interaction

Feb 27, 2026

Fairness under Graph Uncertainty: Achieving Interventional Fairness with Partially Known Causal Graphs over Clusters of Variables

Algorithmic decisions about individuals require predictions that are not only accurate but also fair with respect to sensitive attributes such as gender and race. Causal notions of fairness align with legal requirements, yet many methods assume access to detailed knowledge of the underlying causal graph, which is a demanding assumption in practice. We propose a learning framework that achieves interventional fairness by leveraging a causal graph over clusters of variables, which is substantially easier to estimate than a variable-level graph. With possible adjustment cluster sets identified from such a cluster causal graph, our framework trains a prediction model by reducing the worst-case discrepancy between interventional distributions across these sets. To this end, we develop a computationally efficient barycenter kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) that scales favorably with the number of sensitive attribute values. Extensive experiments show that our framework strikes a better balance between fairness and accuracy than existing approaches, highlighting its effectiveness under limited causal graph knowledge.

Yoichi Chikahara

NTT Communication Science Laboratories, Kyoto, Japan

Algorithmic Fairness Causal Inference

Feb 27, 2026

Multi-Agent Causal Reasoning for Suicide Ideation Detection Through Online Conversations

Suicide remains a pressing global public health concern. While social media platforms offer opportunities for early risk detection through online conversation trees, existing approaches face two major limitations: (1) They rely on predefined rules (e.g., quotes or relies) to log conversations that capture only a narrow spectrum of user interactions, and (2) They overlook hidden influences such as user conformity and suicide copycat behavior, which can significantly affect suicidal expression and propagation in online communities. To address these limitations, we propose a Multi-Agent Causal Reasoning (MACR) framework that collaboratively employs a Reasoning Agent to scale user interactions and a Bias-aware Decision-Making Agent to mitigate harmful biases arising from hidden influences. The Reasoning Agent integrates cognitive appraisal theory to generate counterfactual user reactions to posts, thereby scaling user interactions. It analyses these reactions through structured dimensions, i.e., cognitive, emotional, and behavioral patterns, with a dedicated sub-agent responsible for each dimension. The Bias-aware Decision-Making Agent mitigates hidden biases through a front-door adjustment strategy, leveraging the counterfactual user reactions produced by the Reasoning Agent. Through the collaboration of reasoning and bias-aware decision making, the proposed MACR framework not only alleviates hidden biases, but also enriches contextual information of user interactions with counterfactual knowledge. Extensive experiments on real-world conversational datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of MACR in identifying suicide risk.

Jun Li, Xiangmeng Wang, Haoyang Li +6

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China · City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China · Shenzhen MSU-BIT University, Shenzhen, China +1

Suicide Risk Modeling Social Media Analysis Multi-Agent Reasoning Causal Inference

Feb 26, 2026

Causal Identification from Counterfactual Data: Completeness and Bounding Results

Previous work establishing completeness results for counterfactual identification has been circumscribed to the setting where the input data belongs to observational or interventional distributions (Layers 1 and 2 of Pearl's Causal Hierarchy), since it was generally presumed impossible to obtain data from counterfactual distributions, which belong to Layer 3. However, recent work (Raghavan & Bareinboim, 2025) has formally characterized a family of counterfactual distributions which can be directly estimated via experimental methods - a notion they call counterfactual realizability. This leaves open the question of what additional counterfactual quantities now become identifiable, given this new access to (some) Layer 3 data. To answer this question, we develop the CTFIDU+ algorithm for identifying counterfactual queries from an arbitrary set of Layer 3 distributions, and prove that it is complete for this task. Building on this, we establish the theoretical limit of which counterfactuals can be identified from physically realizable distributions, thus implying the fundamental limit to exact causal inference in the non-parametric setting. Finally, given the impossibility of identifying certain critical types of counterfactuals, we derive novel analytic bounds for such quantities using realizable counterfactual data, and corroborate using simulations that counterfactual data helps tighten the bounds for non-identifiable quantities in practice.

Arvind Raghavan, Elias Bareinboim

Causal Artificial Intelligence Lab, Department of Computer Science, Columbia University

Causal Inference Causal Identifiability Partial Identification

Feb 24, 2026

Sequential Counterfactual Inference for Temporal Clinical Data: Addressing the Time Traveler Dilemma

Counterfactual inference enables clinicians to ask "what if" questions about patient outcomes, but standard methods assume feature independence and simultaneous modifiability -- assumptions violated by longitudinal clinical data. We introduce the Sequential Counterfactual Framework, which respects temporal dependencies in electronic health records by distinguishing immutable features (chronic diagnoses) from controllable features (lab values) and modeling how interventions propagate through time. Applied to 2,723 COVID-19 patients (383 Long COVID heart failure cases, 2,340 matched controls), we demonstrate that 38-67% of patients with chronic conditions would require biologically impossible counterfactuals under naive methods. We identify a cardiorenal cascade (CKD -> AKI -> HF) with relative risks of 2.27 and 1.19 at each step, illustrating temporal propagation that sequential -- but not naive -- counterfactuals can capture. Our framework transforms counterfactual explanation from "what if this feature were different?" to "what if we had intervened earlier, and how would that propagate forward?" -- yielding clinically actionable insights grounded in biological plausibility.

Jingya Cheng, Alaleh Azhir, Jiazi Tian +1

Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA

Counterfactual Explanations Counterfactual Reasoning Causal Inference Longitudinal EHR Modeling

Feb 24, 2026

CausalReasoningBenchmark: A Real-World Benchmark for Disentangled Evaluation of Causal Identification and Estimation

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification, formulating a valid research design under stated assumptions, and estimation, implementing that design numerically on finite data. We introduce CausalReasoningBenchmark, a benchmark of 174 queries across 139 real-world datasets, curated from 73 peer-reviewed research papers and three widely used causal-inference textbooks. For each query, a system must produce (i) a structured identification specification that names the strategy, the treatment, outcome, and control variables, and all design-specific elements, and (ii) a point estimate with a standard error. By scoring these two components separately, our benchmark enables granular diagnosis: it distinguishes failures in causal reasoning from errors in numerical execution. Baseline results with a state-of-the-art LLM show that, while the model correctly identifies the high-level strategy in 81% of cases, full identification-specification correctness drops to only 38%, revealing that the bottleneck lies in the nuanced details of research design rather than in computation. CausalReasoningBenchmark is publicly available on Hugging Face and is designed to foster the development of more robust automated causal-inference systems.

Ayush Sawarni, Jiyuan Tan, Vasilis Syrgkanis

Stanford University

Causal Effect Estimation Benchmark Design Causal Identifiability Causal Reasoning Causal Inference

Feb 23, 2026

cc-Shapley: Measuring Multivariate Feature Importance Needs Causal Context

Explainable artificial intelligence promises to yield insights into relevant features, thereby enabling humans to examine and scrutinize machine learning models or even facilitating scientific discovery. Considering the widespread technique of Shapley values, we find that purely data-driven operationalization of multivariate feature importance is unsuitable for such purposes. Even for simple problems with two features, spurious associations due to collider bias and suppression arise from considering one feature only in the observational context of the other, which can lead to misinterpretations. Causal knowledge about the data-generating process is required to identify and correct such misleading feature attributions. We propose cc-Shapley (causal context Shapley), an interventional modification of conventional observational Shapley values leveraging knowledge of the data's causal structure, thereby analyzing the relevance of a feature in the causal context of the remaining features. We show theoretically that this eradicates spurious association induced by collider bias. We compare the behavior of Shapley and cc-Shapley values on various, synthetic, and real-world datasets. We observe nullification or reversal of associations compared to univariate feature importance when moving from observational to cc-Shapley.

Jörg Martin, Stefan Haufe

Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, Berlin, Germany · Technische Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany · Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Feature Attribution Shapley Value Attribution Causal Attribution Spurious Correlation Causal Inference

Feb 23, 2026

CausalFlip: A Benchmark for LLM Causal Judgment Beyond Semantic Matching

As large language models (LLMs) witness increasing deployment in complex, high-stakes decision-making scenarios, it becomes imperative to ground their reasoning in causality rather than spurious correlations. However, strong performance on traditional reasoning benchmarks does not guarantee true causal reasoning ability of LLMs, as high accuracy may still arise from memorizing semantic patterns instead of analyzing the underlying true causal structures. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a new causal reasoning benchmark, CausalFlip, designed to encourage the development of new LLM paradigm or training algorithms that ground LLM reasoning in causality rather than semantic correlation. CausalFlip consists of causal judgment questions built over event triples that could form different confounder, chain, and collider relations. Based on this, for each event triple, we construct pairs of semantically similar questions that reuse the same events but yield opposite causal answers, where models that rely heavily on semantic matching are systematically driven toward incorrect predictions. To further probe models' reliance on semantic patterns, we introduce a noisy-prefix evaluation that prepends causally irrelevant text before intermediate causal reasoning steps without altering the underlying causal relations or the logic of the reasoning process. We evaluate LLMs under multiple training paradigms, including answer-only training, explicit Chain-of-Thought (CoT) supervision, and a proposed internalized causal reasoning approach that aims to mitigate explicit reliance on correlation in the reasoning process. Our results show that explicit CoT can still be misled by spurious semantic correlations, where internalizing reasoning steps yields substantially improved causal grounding, suggesting that it is promising to better elicit the latent causal reasoning capabilities of base LLMs.

Yuzhe Wang, Yaochen Zhu, Jundong Li

University of Virginia Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

LLM Evaluation Causal Reasoning in Language Models Causal Reasoning Causal Inference

Feb 22, 2026

DoAtlas-1: A Causal Compilation Paradigm for Clinical AI

Medical foundation models generate narrative explanations but cannot quantify intervention effects, detect evidence conflicts, or validate literature claims, limiting clinical auditability. We propose causal compilation, a paradigm that transforms medical evidence from narrative text into executable code. The paradigm standardizes heterogeneous research evidence into structured estimand objects, each explicitly specifying intervention contrast, effect scale, time horizon, and target population, supporting six executable causal queries: do-calculus, counterfactual reasoning, temporal trajectories, heterogeneous effects, mechanistic decomposition, and joint interventions. We instantiate this paradigm in DoAtlas-1, compiling 1,445 effect kernels from 754 studies through effect standardization, conflict-aware graph construction, and real-world validation (Human Phenotype Project, 10,000 participants). The system achieves 98.5% canonicalization accuracy and 80.5% query executability. This paradigm shifts medical AI from text generation to executable, auditable, and verifiable causal reasoning.

Yulong Li, Jianxu Chen, Xiwei Liu +9

Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence · Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University.

Causal Reasoning Causal Inference Clinical Decision Support

Feb 22, 2026

Test-Time Learning of Causal Structure from Interventional Data

Supervised causal learning has shown promise in causal discovery, yet it often struggles with generalization across diverse interventional settings, particularly when intervention targets are unknown. To address this, we propose TICL (Test-time Interventional Causal Learning), a novel method that synergizes Test-Time Training with Joint Causal Inference. Specifically, we design a self-augmentation strategy to generate instance-specific training data at test time, effectively avoiding distribution shifts. Furthermore, by integrating joint causal inference, we developed a PC-inspired two-phase supervised learning scheme, which effectively leverages self-augmented training data while ensuring theoretical identifiability. Extensive experiments on bnlearn benchmarks demonstrate TICL's superiority in multiple aspects of causal discovery and intervention target detection.

Wei Chen, Rui Ding, Bojun Huang +5

HKUST · HKUST(GZ) · Microsoft Research +2

Causal Structure Learning Causal Inference Test-Time Training

Feb 20, 2026

Optimizing Graph Causal Classification Models: Estimating Causal Effects and Addressing Confounders

Graph data is becoming increasingly prevalent due to the growing demand for relational insights in AI across various domains. Organizations regularly use graph data to solve complex problems involving relationships and connections. Causal learning is especially important in this context, since it helps to understand cause-effect relationships rather than mere associations. Since many real-world systems are inherently causal, graphs can efficiently model these systems. However, traditional graph machine learning methods including graph neural networks (GNNs), rely on correlations and are sensitive to spurious patterns and distribution changes. On the other hand, causal models enable robust predictions by isolating true causal factors, thus making them more stable under such shifts. Causal learning also helps in identifying and adjusting for confounders, ensuring that predictions reflect true causal relationships and remain accurate even under interventions. To address these challenges and build models that are robust and causally informed, we propose CCAGNN, a Confounder-Aware causal GNN framework that incorporates causal reasoning into graph learning, supporting counterfactual reasoning and providing reliable predictions in real-world settings. Comprehensive experiments on six publicly available datasets from diverse domains show that CCAGNN consistently outperforms leading state-of-the-art models.

Simi Job, Xiaohui Tao, Taotao Cai +3

School of Mathematics, Physics, and Computing, University of Southern Queensland, Australia · School of Data Science, Lingnan University, Hong Kong · School of Business, University of Southern Queensland, Australia +1

Graph Neural Networks Causal Inference Counterfactual Learning

Feb 20, 2026

Causal Neighbourhood Learning for Invariant Graph Representations

Graph data often contain noisy and spurious correlations that mask the true causal relationships, which are essential for enabling graph models to make predictions based on the underlying causal structure of the data. Dependence on spurious connections makes it challenging for traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to generalize effectively across different graphs. Furthermore, traditional aggregation methods tend to amplify these spurious patterns, limiting model robustness under distribution shifts. To address these issues, we propose Causal Neighbourhood Learning with Graph Neural Networks (CNL-GNN), a novel framework that performs causal interventions on graph structure. CNL-GNN effectively identifies and preserves causally relevant connections and reduces spurious influences through the generation of counterfactual neighbourhoods and adaptive edge perturbation guided by learnable importance masking and an attention-based mechanism. In addition, by combining structural-level interventions with the disentanglement of causal features from confounding factors, the model learns invariant node representations that are robust and generalize well across different graph structures. Our approach improves causal graph learning beyond traditional feature-based methods, resulting in a robust classification model. Extensive experiments on four publicly available datasets, including multiple domain variants of one dataset, demonstrate that CNL-GNN outperforms state-of-the-art GNN models.

Simi Job, Xiaohui Tao, Taotao Cai +2

School of Science, Engineering and Digital Technologies, University of Southern Queensland, Australia. · School of Data Science, Lingnan University, Hong Kong.

Graph Representation Learning Causal Representation Learning OOD Generalization Graph Structure Learning Causal Inference

Feb 19, 2026

General sample size analysis for probabilities of causation: a delta method approach

Probabilities of causation (PoCs), such as the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS), are important tools for decision making but are generally not point identifiable. Existing work has derived bounds for these quantities using combinations of experimental and observational data. However, there is very limited research on sample size analysis, namely, how many experimental and observational samples are required to achieve a desired margin of error. In this paper, we propose a general sample size framework based on the delta method. Our approach applies to settings in which the target bounds of PoCs can be expressed as finite minima or maxima of linear combinations of experimental and observational probabilities. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed sample size calculations lead to stable estimation of these bounds.

Tianyuan Cheng, Ruirui Mao, Judea Pearl +1

Department of Statistics, Florida State University · Department of Computer Science, Cornell University · Department of Computer Science, University of California Los Angeles +1

Causal Inference

Feb 18, 2026

Causality is Key for Interpretability Claims to Generalise

Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our position is that causal inference specifies what constitutes a valid mapping from model activations to invariant high-level structures, the data or assumptions needed to achieve it, and the inferences it can support. Specifically, Pearl's causal hierarchy clarifies what an interpretability study can justify. Observations establish associations between model behaviour and internal components. Interventions (e.g., ablations or activation patching) support claims how these edits affect a behavioural metric (e.g., average change in token probabilities) over a set of prompts. However, counterfactual claims -- i.e., asking what the model output would have been for the same prompt under an unobserved intervention -- remain largely unverifiable without controlled supervision. We show how causal representation learning (CRL) operationalises this hierarchy, specifying which variables are recoverable from activations and under what assumptions. Together, these motivate a diagnostic framework that helps practitioners select methods and evaluations matching claims to evidence such that findings generalise.

Shruti Joshi, Aaron Mueller, David Klindt +3

Mila - Québec AI Institute & Université de Montréal · Boston University · Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory +1

LLM Interpretability Causal Interpretability Causal Inference Causal Interventions in Language Models

Feb 17, 2026

This human study did not involve human subjects: Validating LLM simulations as behavioral evidence

A growing literature uses large language models (LLMs) as synthetic participants to generate cost-effective and nearly instantaneous responses in social science experiments. However, there is limited guidance on when such simulations support valid inference about human behavior. We contrast two strategies for obtaining valid estimates of causal effects and clarify the assumptions under which each is suitable for exploratory versus confirmatory research. Heuristic approaches seek to establish that simulated and observed human behavior are interchangeable through prompt engineering, model fine-tuning, and other repair strategies designed to reduce LLM-induced inaccuracies. While useful for many exploratory tasks, heuristic approaches lack the formal statistical guarantees typically required for confirmatory research. In contrast, statistical calibration combines auxiliary human data with statistical adjustments to account for discrepancies between observed and simulated responses. Under explicit assumptions, statistical calibration preserves validity and provides more precise estimates of causal effects at lower cost than experiments that rely solely on human participants. Yet the potential of both approaches depends on how well LLMs approximate the relevant populations. We consider what opportunities are overlooked when researchers focus myopically on substituting LLMs for human participants in a study.

Jessica Hullman, David Broska, Huaman Sun +1

Northwestern University · Stanford University

Large Language Model-Based Social Simulation Human Behavior Simulation Causal Inference