Causal World Models

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7 papers in the last four weeks, up 40% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

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Latest papers 32

Oct 8, 2026cs.LG

CausalDreamer: Learning Predictive World Models with Latent Disentanglement

World models for control must capture which aspects of the environment respond to the agent's actions and which are relevant to reward. Generative world models such as Dreamer 4 consist of a video tokenizer, which encodes each frame into a latent, and a dynamics model, which is pretrained to predict future latents from past latents and actions. Yet the tokenizer is trained with a reconstruction objective, without action or reward supervision, so its latent provides no explicit mechanism to separate controllable, uncontrollable, reward-relevant, and reward-irrelevant information. We propose \textit{CausalDreamer}, which keeps the tokenizer frozen and re-encodes its latent into a factored representation of four groups along two axes: controllability, where only the two controllable groups receive the action, and reward relevance, learned by predicting the reward from the two reward-relevant groups. The pretrained dynamics model is then fine-tuned to predict the factored representation. We evaluate \textit{CausalDreamer} and the pretrained world model it starts from with model-predictive planning on 20 MMBench2 tasks: 10 clean tasks seen during training and 10 unseen tasks, of which 6 are manipulated variants of clean tasks with a changed background, object, or maze layout, and 4 are new environments. We normalize returns so that a policy taking uniformly random actions scores 0 and an expert scores 1. \textit{CausalDreamer} achieves a 14% higher normalized score than the pretrained world model on the clean tasks (0.199 vs.\ 0.175) and a 25% higher score on the manipulated variants (0.307 vs.\ 0.246), while neither model scores meaningfully above the random policy in the new environments. Additionally, our analysis shows that the factored representation separates reward-irrelevant changes, such as a changed background, from its reward-relevant groups.

Prince Jha, Nils Lukas, Kun Zhang +1

Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) · Carnegie Mellon University

World Model Learning Causal World Models Disentangled Representation Learning Model-Based Planning Causal Representation Learning

Oct 4, 2026stat.ME

Same Predictions, Different Harms: Causal Auditing of Patient World Models

Patient world models used for clinical trial simulation can agree on transition kernels and arm-specific risks, yet disagree on the fraction of patients harmed by switching treatment---the counterfactual quantity that matters for intervention-aware reasoning. We audit this reliability gap in a two-stage shared-response SCM: a categorical intermediate health state is followed by common terminal care. Under independent stages, the sharp harm interval has closed-form endpoints for at most three intermediate states, with an exactness boundary at four states. Declared dependence and response-mismatch budgets yield calibrated outer bounds when stage independence or complete mediation is relaxed; in a symmetric three-state model the entire sensitivity frontier is sharp,

[0,\min\{1/2,1/3+(ρ+δ)/2\}]

, and shows exactly how budgets erase the gain over endpoint-only bounds. Two eight-variable response LPs propagate interventional uncertainty for finite-sample audits. Exact witnesses verify attainability. On public clinical simulators (EpiCare; sepsis), native configurations show little resolved stage dependence and no additional joint-compatibility gain over pairwise transport---honest negative results for reliability claims. All experiments are locally reproducible; guarantees remain conditional on the stated causal model. The results provide a concrete protocol for deciding when a patient world model is safe to trust for counterfactual harm.

Yicheng Qi, Xiyi Xiong

Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Structural Causal Models Causal World Models Partial Identification

Sep 29, 2026cs.CV

Do-JEPA: From Masking to Intervention in Latent World Models

Latent world models are trained to predict what happens next, so nothing in their objective separates what an action caused from what merely co-occurred with it. Object-masking models such as C-JEPA intervene on what the predictor can see; we intervene on what physically happens. From one saved simulator state we run the dynamics under an action

a

and under a reference action

a_{\varnothing}

, and train the model to predict the difference

Δz=z^{a}-z^{a_{\varnothing}}

between the two latent futures. The resulting objective, Do-JEPA, has an effect loss, a support loss (where the action enters), a propagation loss (where its effect travels) and invariance losses (what must not change). In a synthetic system with object-aligned variables, support supervision finds the directly intervened object in 99.95% of test cases, where a sparse action mask sends the action to a nuisance slot in every case, and response-onset supervision recovers the ring-shaped propagation graph (edge AUROC 0.975 vs. 0.624). From pixels, the effect loss beats a control trained on exactly the same data: it lowers latent effect error by 28.4% on an end-to-end LeWM model and physical effect error by 13.5% when trained and tested on natural action sequences, and on three independently generated CausalWorld benchmarks it lowers responsive effect error by about 20% under physics shifts and the latent context sensitivity of predicted effects by 66%. Trained from scratch it costs factual accuracy; fine-tuning an existing model with it removes this cost. Together, these results show that intervening on the world, rather than on what the model sees, helps latent world models predict what their actions cause.

Hossein Resani, Javen Qinfeng Shi

Australian Institute for Machine Learning, Adelaide University · Responsible AI Research Centre

Causal Effect Estimation Causal World Models Action-Conditioned World Models Causal Structure Learning Latent World Models

Sep 21, 2026cs.RO

What Matters in Designing World Action Models: An Empirical Study

World Action Models (WAMs) have emerged as a promising paradigm for generalizable robot control. Despite the growing number of WAM systems, existing works often introduce unified systems that bundle together multiple design choices, such as architecture and training strategy, making it difficult to isolate individual contributions and systematically compare alternative designs. In this work, we present a controlled study that disentangles these design choices and analyzes not only their empirical effects, but also how and why they shape WAMs. More specifically, we focus on three fundamental questions in building WAMs: (1) what causal structure should govern the interaction between world modeling and action generation? (2) in which latent space should world modeling be performed? and (3) how do different world-action modeling objectives affect model behavior and performance? Through structurally controlled experiments on three representative benchmarks, RoboCasa-GR1, LIBERO, and LIBERO-Plus, we systematically compare six causal structures, eight latent representations, and four training objectives, covering popular design choices in existing WAMs. We further validate our key findings on real-robot data from the DROID dataset. We hope to provide a systematic understanding of how core design choices affect world-action modeling and what principles can guide the development of future WAM systems.

Chao Tang, Haoqing Wang, Zilang Cen +9

Samsung Robotics eXperience · Samsung R&D Institute China–Beijing · Zhongguancun Academy +2

World Model Learning Causal World Models World Action Models Latent World Models World Model Evaluation

Sep 20, 2026cs.CV

OnlineWM: Causality-Aware Active Online Learning for Effective World Modeling

Generative world models aim to predict future states conditioned on actions, where action controllability is fundamental for reliable dynamics modeling. While recent efforts leverage simulator-generated data to enhance this capability, existing training pipelines face two fundamental limitations. First, static offline data collection leads to a distribution misalignment between training sets and the model's evolving error patterns, failing to resolve critical long-tail scenarios where dynamics predictions remain unreliable. Second, the standard objective of minimizing observational discrepancy often encourages the model to exploit spurious correlations instead of capturing the underlying action-effect causality. To address these limitations, we propose OnlineWM, an online training framework that continuously improves world modeling through active simulator interaction and causality-aware optimization. OnlineWM introduces two key innovations: (1) Active Online Learning: Instead of using fixed datasets, OnlineWM adaptively queries the simulator for new interaction sequences that target the model's current predictive weaknesses, ensuring high-utility data acquisition. (2) Causality-Aware Fine-Tuning: We propose a counterfactual learning strategy that contrasts the outcomes of different actions from identical states, forcing the model to attribute state transitions to specific actions rather than ambient environmental evolution, thereby grounding its predictions in reliable causal mechanisms. By integrating active data acquisition with causal optimization, OnlineWM establishes a closed-loop refinement process that ensures the model is both robust to diverse scenarios and precise in its causal attribution. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OnlineWM significantly enhances action controllability and generalizes effectively to unseen domains.

Yikun Miao, Fangqi Zhu, Quanxin Shou +6

Department of Computer Science and Engineering The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong SAR, China

World Model Learning Causal World Models Action-Conditioned World Models Active Learning

Sep 19, 2026cs.CV

CausalWM: Causal Chain-of-Thought Reasoning for Embodied World Model

Embodied world models learn to predict future physical dynamics from visual observations and control signals, where physical knowledge is implicitly entangled within latent representations. We introduce CausalWM, a 16B embodied world model that performs explicit causal chain-of-thought reasoning before future video prediction. CausalWM organizes useful variables into a reasoning trajectory, allowing the model to progressively capture causal dependencies underlying physical evolution. To train CausalWM, we collect 31K hours embodied data and develop a three-stage paradigm consisting of large-scale video pre-training, causal CoT mid-training, and multi-objective RL post-training. Despite using only a limited set of supervised CoT variables, CausalWM exhibits emergent in-context learning capabilities, enabling contextual visual feature guidance and efficient few-step generation. CausalWM achieves state-of-the-art performance across language-conditioned, action-conditioned, single-view and multi-view benchmarks, including Top-1 performance on TriWorldBench leaderboard.

Ziming Xu, Shuang Liang, Ruobing Han +10

Aether AI · University of California, San Diego · Vanderbilt University

Causal World Models Action-Conditioned World Models Video Prediction Embodied World Models

Sep 14, 2026cs.AI

Converting Sequenced Fuzzy Cognitive Maps to Causal Virtual Worlds with Large Video Generators

We show how users can create and manipulate causal virtual worlds with large-language-model (LLM) and large-video-model agents. The approach uses feedback fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) both to model the granular causal structure of the virtual world and to guide its causal evolution. The local causal rules are partial or fuzzy while the FCM's feedback structure produces global equilibria that define causal scenarios. A sequence of \emph{dynamical} meta-rules of the form ``If

\mathcal{A}

then

\mathcal{B}

" define the causal scenes of the virtual-world video. The if-part causal pattern

\mathcal{A}

perturbs the FCM's virtual world at the user's or agent's discretion. The FCM's transient feedback dynamics define the meta-rule's causal arrow of implication. The then-part

\mathcal{B}

is the resulting equilibrium attractor such as a FCM limit cycle or fixed point. Our algorithm extracts these meta-rules from the FCM and guides the LLM agent to write a script based on the FCM meta-rule sequence. The large video generator converts the meta-rule into a video scene in accord with the flow of the dynamics. We applied the agent-based technique to a simple FCM that describes an undersea world of dolphins and sharks. Google's Gemini 3.1 generated the script and Google's Veo 3.1 generated the dolphin-shark video. The approach is general and can scale by mixing larger FCMs and AI agents to produce more immersive virtual worlds.

Akash Kumar Panda, Olaoluwa Adigun, Bart Kosko

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA · School of Computing and Information Sciences, Florida International University Miami, FL 33199, USA

Causal World Models

Sep 7, 2026cs.LG

InfluenceField: A Differentiable Field with Interventionally Identifiable Causal Structure for Multimodal World Modeling

Multimodal large language models often capture visual-linguistic correlations but struggle to predict how local visual interventions propagate and affect downstream answers. We introduce InfluenceField, an intervention-aware latent field inserted between the visual encoder and language decoder. It lifts patch features into a continuous spatial representation, propagates directed influence over multiple steps, and predicts local intervention effects through a shared transition operator. Training jointly optimizes language modeling, cross-environment invariance, counterfactual rollout supervision, and structural regularization. For a nonlinear finite-basis population model, we show that target-aligned interventional supervision, together with a one-step separation condition on the transition, restricts admissible representations to within-location reparameterizations, so that the directed dependency graph of the full transition is recovered exactly. A linear specialization gives an exact partial-coverage characterization and a finite-loss stability bound, and the field analysis derives the spatial profile of coefficient interventions together with a shared-channel calibration result. On CausalVQA, InfluenceField improves overall accuracy over its backbone by 13.1 percentage points, with the largest gains on the planning and hypothetical categories. Capacity-matched baselines and structural controls attribute the gains in robustness and factual-counterfactual consistency to the causal objectives rather than to added capacity.

Zihao Yang, Zijia Wang, Zhiqiu Huang

Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford · Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford · School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham Ningbo China

Causal Representation Learning Causal World Models Counterfactual Reasoning in Language Models Multimodal Large Language Models Causal Interventions in Language Models

Sep 5, 2026cs.CV

CST-WM: A Causally Structured World Model for Embodied Visual Tracking

Embodied visual tracking requires a robot to choose actions that keep a moving target observable at a suitable distance, and to recover it after occlusion, out-of-view drift, or distractor crossings. We cast the task as planning over future target evidence with an action-conditioned world model. In logged tracking data, however, the behavior policy's actions are correlated with where the target is, so a generic predictor can learn a shortcut: it writes the current action directly into its prediction of target evidence, instead of letting the action affect that evidence only by moving the robot and changing what it observes. We call this failure causal hallucination; the resulting rollouts look plausible but rank candidate actions for the wrong reason. We propose CST-WM, a causally structured world model whose state is split into target-evidence, robot, and observation branches. Its transition removes the same-step edge from action to target evidence but keeps the path through robot motion and the resulting views, so candidate actions are still distinguished by their predicted ego-motion. With rollout-based model-predictive control, a single model handles both steady following and re-acquisition after target loss. On EVT-Bench and Habitat 3.0, covering standard tracking, target-loss recovery, and cross-dataset transfer, CST-WM improves following, distance-range control, safety, and re-acquisition over reactive trackers and world-model baselines, and removing the action mask causes the largest drop in re-acquisition among our ablations. Offline, CST-WM has lower multi-step rollout error, and its ranking of candidate actions agrees better with the simulator's. On a Unitree Go2 quadruped, CST-WM succeeds in 20 of 30 real-world trials under occlusion, distractor crossing, and fast motion, against 14 for TrackVLA.

Junyi Hu, Shuaihang Yuan, Jiazhao Liang +1

New York University Abu Dhabi

Causal World Models Visual Object Tracking World Model-Based Planning Action-Conditioned World Models Model-Based Planning Embodied World Models

Aug 31, 2026cs.AI

CAER: Causal Action Effect Reweighting for World Model Training

World models are becoming core infrastructure for embodied intelligence, with action-conditioned video generation providing controllable predictions of how scenes evolve after agent interventions. Yet existing models are commonly trained with space-time-uniform mean squared error, allowing abundant background tokens to dominate the gradient while sparse interaction dynamics remain under-optimized; such uniform fitting rewards reconstructing appearance rather than learning how actions change the world. We introduce Causal Action Effect Reweighting (CAER), a general training paradigm that redistributes supervision toward the tokens whose predicted future is causally affected by the action. CAER contrasts the model's own predictions with and without action conditioning to localize these tokens online, then normalizes the resulting effect map into a weight that preserves the total coefficient mass and changes only where it is spent. This online signal requires no external annotations or offline preprocessing, avoids additional data-processing time, and scales naturally with model and dataset size. Experiments across heterogeneous action-conditioned world-model tasks show that CAER converges to better solutions than uniform MSE training, with consistent improvements in the physical consistency, controllability, and visual quality of generated videos.

Jianjie Fang, Xvyuan Liu, Ziyou Wang +9

1Tsinghua University · University of Science and Technology of China · 2Manifold AI

Action-Conditioned Video Generation World Model Learning Causal World Models Action-Conditioned World Models

Aug 13, 2026cs.AI

A Unifying Perspective on Causal World Models: From Observations to Representations to Structure

World Models (WM) are increasingly seen as a foundation for intelligent agents that can predict, plan, and act beyond their training distribution. In this paper, we study WMs from a causal perspective across multiple levels of abstraction, ranging from perceptual observations to building a conceptual representation of the structure governing the environment dynamics. We argue that useful WMs must go beyond generative capabilities alone: they should also capture entity properties, entity-to-entity interactions, and entity-to-environment interactions that determine and explain the dynamics of a system. We provide a formal definition of Causal WMs (CWMs) grounded in the tasks they are intended to support, connecting world modelling with existing work in causal representation learning, object-centric learning, causal discovery, structural causal models, and model-based decision-making. Finally, we relate CWMs to the literature on identifiability, clarifying when the components of a WM can be recovered from data and up to which equivalence. With this, we ground WMs in representations and structures that support causal reasoning and informed decision-making.

Avinash Kori, Fabrizio Russo

Department of Computing, Imperial College London, London, UK

Causal Representation Learning World Model Learning Causal World Models World Models

Aug 10, 2026cs.RO

FACT: Failure-Aware Causal Training for World-Action Models

Recent world-action models (WAMs) show that co-training policies with future prediction can provide physical priors for action generation. Building on the future-prediction ability of video models, many WAMs generate future videos and recover actions with inverse-dynamics models, or use these predicted videos as goal conditions for action generation. In both cases, the world model is trained mostly on successful demonstrations and has little reason to predict the consequences of bad actions. We introduce FACT, a causal World-Action Model that predicts future video and task progress conditioned on the executed action. This action-conditioned interface allows failure rollouts to supervise action consequences, turning bad actions into valid future targets rather than being discarded. Failure-aware training makes the progress predictor aware of both successful and failed action outcomes, which can optionally be used to score sampled action candidates at inference. Extensive experiments on simulation and real-world bimanual manipulation tasks show that FACT outperforms many existing baselines, improves as failure data are incorporated into training, and reduces success-biased future hallucination under bad actions. See more details at https://fact-wam.github.io/

Quanquan Peng, Yutong Liang, Rui Yan +2

University of California San Diego

Causal World Models Action-Conditioned World Models Robotic Manipulation World Action Models

Aug 10, 2026cs.LG

Twin Rollouts: Noise-Coupled Counterfactual Branching in Interactive Video World Models

Interactive video world models generate rollouts autoregressively under an action stream, yet they are trained and evaluated almost exclusively on factual prediction. We study counterfactual generation inside the rollout: given a trajectory the model has itself generated, what would have happened had the actions differed from step t* onward? We formalize noise-coupled twin rollouts --- a factual and a counterfactual branch sharing the generated prefix and the future exogenous noise sequence, diverging only in the action stream at an intervention point. Because the factual branch is self-generated, its exogenous noise is known exactly: the abduction step of Pearl's counterfactual procedure is exact by construction, sidestepping the approximate-inversion problem faced by editing-based pipelines. Noise coupling further turns the minimal-change principle into a per-sample verifiable property: we define a spatiotemporal locality metric that penalizes divergence outside the causal descendants of the intervention, computable against simulator ground truth without a learned judge. Forking the simulator state at t* yields ground-truth counterfactual re-renders, which we use as verifiable rewards for post-training. This note establishes the formal framework, metric definitions, and positioning; experiments are forthcoming.

Yu Ma, Hongli Shi, Xinran Xu

Action-Conditioned Video Generation Counterfactual Evaluation Causal World Models Causal Counterfactual Generation Video Generation Video World Models

Aug 7, 2026cs.AI

CausalNav: Reliability-Certified Causal World Models for Control under Physical-Parameter Shift

A world model is only useful for physical AI if it changes what the agent does, and only safe if it declines to do so when it is wrong. We study both halves of that requirement with CausalNav, a controller built around a signed, action-conditioned transition graph over identified state coordinates. At deployment CausalNav simulates a small library of intervention sequences, converts their objective error into policy-logit advice, and admits that advice only when a scale-free predictive-reliability certificate, a policy-margin gate, and an argmax-agreement gate all pass; otherwise it falls back exactly to its own model-based base controller. We evaluate against nine controlled baselines (transformer, recurrent, split-latent, graph, causal-induction, and three recent model-based reasoning modules) on CartPole-v1 and discretized Pendulum-v1 with physical-parameter shifts, under one shared PPO trainer, one interaction budget, and ten held-out seeds (200 runs). CausalNav attains the best average rank (1.25 of ten). The diagnostic result is more informative than the ranking: the learned graph recovers structure well above chance (CartPole F1 = 0.59 +/- 0.09), yet per-seed structural fidelity is uncorrelated with per-seed control benefit (r = -0.15, p = 0.67), and the certificate abstains on 10/10 Pendulum seeds, where forcing the planner on costs return. Model fidelity did not predict downstream control utility in our setting; certified abstention, not better prediction, is what made the world model safe to deploy.

Yiyao Zhang, Diksha Goel, Hussain Ahmad +2

School of Computing and Information Technology, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia · CSIRO’s Data61, Clayton, VIC, Australia · School of Computer Science and Information Technology, Adelaide University, Adelaide, SA, Australia

Causal World Models World Models Action-Conditioned World Models Robust Control Model-Based Planning

Jul 28, 2026cs.LG

Learning Implicit Causal World Models from Multi-Agent Demonstrations

In model-based reinforcement learning, world models exist as internal simulators, but their training often conflates statistical correlations with causal mechanisms. This problem is exacerbated in multi-agent systems where physical transitions are intertwined with strategic agent intents, causing world models to fail under distribution shift. We introduce Implicit Causal World Models to recover environmental dynamics from offline demonstrations without requiring pre-defined causal graphs. By incorporating policy variance, we render world models discoverable via the sequential backdoor condition. Evaluations across coordination tasks (Two-Door, Navigation, and Giveway) demonstrate that these models provide interpretable causal representations under both full and partial observability, with model accuracy scaling directly with interventional strength.

Jasorsi Ghosh

Department of Computer Science Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana, USA

Causal Representation Learning Causal World Models World Models Causal Structure Learning Causal RL Offline MARL+1

Jul 17, 2026cs.LO

A cubical formalisation of topos causal models: intervention, forcing, and a contextuality obstruction

Topos causal models recast causal inference inside a topos: a causal world is a presheaf, an intervention is a sub-model named by a characteristic map into the subobject classifier

\Om

, and reasoning is Kripke-Joyal forcing in an intuitionistic internal language. We give the first axiom-free machine-checked account of this 1-topos core, in Cubical Agda over a previously verified probability monad and do-calculus; the framework is otherwise developed on paper, with central claims stated rather than proved. Three of our results go beyond faithful transcription. We exhibit a contextuality obstruction the programme does not treat: pairwise-consistent local causal data with no global model, detected by a degree-one holonomy class. We delimit the claim that interventions are modelled by the subobject classifier: an intervention and an observation name the same subobject, so

\Om

fixes the target of a do-operation but not the operation itself, which is surgery on the kernels --- where, on a confounder, the interventional and observational laws differ. And we settle the modal unit --- inflationarity is derivable from

j\top = \top

and naturality, not a fourth axiom. We also machine-check the classifier of sieves with its classification theorem, the pullback collating local mechanisms, and the Kripke-Joyal forcing clauses. The development assumes no axioms and typechecks under Agda's \texttt{--safe} flag, with the ordered field discharged at

\mathbb{Q}

; type-level sheafification and a directed do-calculus are future work.

Karen Sargsyan

Institute of Chemistry, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

Causal World Models Causal Intervention

Jun 29, 2026cs.CV

OWMDrive: Causality-Aware End-to-End Autonomous Driving via 4D Occupancy World Model

Autonomous driving systems are steadily moving toward end-to-end paradigms to mitigate the limited adaptability of rule-based pipelines in complex traffic environments. However, most existing learning-based methods still make decisions from static representations of the current scene, without explicit future rollouts or modeling of the temporal causal dynamics in traffic interactions. This limitation often results in unstable or overly conservative planning under high-uncertainty conditions, such as occlusions and unexpected events. To overcome these challenges, we introduce OWMDrive, a generative end-to-end driving framework built upon an Occupancy World Model for multi-step 3D occupancy forecasting, which serves as a conditional prior to guide diffusion-based planning. Conditioned on both current observations and predicted future states, the planner iteratively refines trajectory candidates to generate a reinforced driving trajectory. By explicitly modeling scene evolution over future horizons, OWMDrive captures key spatiotemporal causal dependencies, which leads to more foresighted and robust trajectory generation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OWMDrive significantly improves planning reliability and safety, especially in challenging and partially observable driving scenarios.

Junjie Cheng, Ruiqi Song, Ye Wu +3

The School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · Waytous Inc., Qingdao 266109, China · The State Key Laboratory of Multimodal Artificial Intelligence Systems, Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China +1

Causal World Models End-to-End Autonomous Driving World Models 3D Occupancy Prediction World Models for Autonomous Driving

Jun 22, 2026cs.RO

Causal Reward World Models: Zero-shot Reward Design for Automated Skill Generation

Automated Reward Design (ARD) aims to replace manual reward engineering in reinforcement learning with language-driven reward function synthesis. However, existing approaches based on large language models (LLMs) remain inherently correlation-driven, relying on iterative environmental feedback to refine reward hypotheses for each specific task. This paradigm not only results in inefficient reasoning but also makes LLMs susceptible to semantically plausible yet causally spurious reward components, leading to ineffective optimization. To address these limitations, we propose the Causal Reward World Model (CRWM), which explicitly models the causal topological relationships between candidate reward components and task-targeted physical variables through offline pre-training on multi-task interaction data. Based on a coarse-to-fine pre-training strategy, we introduce a joint optimization module that integrates Explicit Mechanism Decoupling with Confidence-Aware Soft Fusion to refine coarse structural priors using micro-level trajectories, thereby constructing a robust and interpretable causal skeleton. During inference, LLMs leverage CRWM as a task-irrelevant causal prior to constrain the reward generation, enabling zero-shot reward function design. Our work opens up a new white-box paradigm for the ARD problem. Extensive experiments on complex continuous control benchmarks demonstrate that CRWM generates executable reward functions without feedback-driven reward refinement, significantly reducing the design latency for acquiring new robotic skills while matching or surpassing state-of-the-art performance, and further exhibits strong generalization capabilities across unseen tasks and diverse robotic embodiments.

Yang Yang, Yuchuang Tong, Zhengtao Zhang +6

Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China · Intelligent Manufacturing Institute, HFUT, Hefei 230051, China · School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Anhui University, Hefei 230061, China +1

RL for Robotics Robot Skill Learning Causal World Models World Models LLM-Guided RL Reward Design for RL+1

Jun 21, 2026cs.AI

Self-Evolving Cognitive Framework via Causal World Modeling for Embodied Scientific Intelligence

Current embodied world models are primarily optimized for predictive objectives, limiting their ability to generalize under distribution shifts and reason systematically about unseen situations and hypothetical interventions. We argue that embodied intelligence should move beyond predictive world modeling toward self-evolving cognitive systems that continually construct and refine internal causal representations through interaction with the environment. To this end, we propose a self-evolving cognitive framework via causal world modeling for embodied scientific intelligence, which integrates three complementary components: causal world modeling, intervention-driven causal reasoning, and continual cognitive refinement. The proposed framework continuously revises and expands its internal causal world model through causal discovery, intervention-driven feedback, and counterfactual reasoning, supporting continual cognitive refinement and enabling cognition itself to evolve over time. Furthermore, we reinterpret embodied interaction not merely as a means of trajectory optimization, but as an epistemic process for causal hypothesis generation, intervention-driven experimentation, and continual knowledge acquisition. This work provides a conceptual and theoretical foundation for a transition from predictive intelligence toward epistemic intelligence, in which intelligence emerges through the continual construction, revision, and refinement of causal world models via interaction with the environment. Accordingly, an intervention-driven causal-epistemic benchmarking paradigm is suggested for evaluating self-evolving embodied scientific intelligence.

Yi Yu, Tetsunari Inamura

Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Japan · Advanced Intelligence and Robotics Research Center, Brain Science Institute, Tamagawa University, Japan

Causal World Models Embodied AI Embodied World Models Self-Evolving Agents

Jun 21, 2026cs.CL

Words as Difference Makers: How Large Language Models Determine Causal Structure in Text

Because large language models (LLMs) are impressively successful in predicting text, it appears that they must have access to a 'world model' representing causal and definitional structure. However, the dominant formalisms of modern causal inference -- Judea Pearl's interventionist approach and the Neyman-Rubin potential outcomes framework -- struggle to illuminate how LLMs learn causal structure. I resolve this puzzle by arguing that LLMs employ a specific inductive approach based on a difference-making logic -- sometimes called variational induction. I demonstrate how central aspects of this logic are realized during training, where LLMs require enormous amounts of text data from a wide range of contexts to identify difference- and indifference-makers within word sequences. Furthermore, I analyze specific architectural features of LLMs -- such as token embeddings and self-attention -- to determine their roles in variational induction. The difference-making logic of LLMs fundamentally parallels the experimental method, where causal relations are derived by systematically varying individual circumstances to determine their influence on a phenomenon.

Wolfgang Pietsch

tum

Causal World Models LLM Interpretability Causal Structure Learning Causal Reasoning in Language Models LLM Training

Jun 9, 2026cs.CV

Next Forcing: Causal World Modeling with Multi-Chunk Prediction

Autoregressive video generation has emerged as a powerful paradigm for World Action Models (WAMs). However, existing approaches suffer from slow training convergence and limited converged accuracy, particularly at high frame rates, as the training supervision is confined to the current chunk without explicit signals about future dynamics; they also suffer from slow inference due to iterative video denoising. In this paper, we present Next Forcing, a multi-chunk prediction (MCP) framework for causal world modeling that enables faster training, higher accuracy, and accelerated inference. Inspired by multi-token prediction in large language models, Next Forcing introduces an MCP training objective that augments the main model with lightweight auxiliary MCP modules to simultaneously denoise video chunks at multiple future temporal horizons (next

^1

, next

^2

, next

^3

chunks). These MCP modules form a causal chain across prediction depths, where intermediate features fused from multiple layers of the main model are leveraged to predict future dynamics, allowing near-future predictions to inform farther-future ones and providing dense multi-scale temporal supervision back to the main model. During training, the MCP modules significantly accelerate convergence and improve converged accuracy, especially at high frame rates: at 50 fps, Next Forcing achieves a 93.1% relative improvement over LingBot-VA at 5k training steps and 2.3x faster convergence, and establishes new state-of-the-art results on the RoboTwin benchmark (94.1/93.5% on Clean/Random). At inference, the MCP modules can be retained to predict the next video chunk in parallel with the current one, achieving 2x inference acceleration. Next Forcing also demonstrates significant improvements on PhyWorld, a benchmark evaluating adherence to physical laws in video generation, and over 50% FVD reduction on general video pretraining.

Gangwei Xu, Qihang Zhang, Jiaming Zhou +4

Robbyant · HUST · HKUST (GZ) +1

Causal World Models Autoregressive Video Generation Video World Models

Jun 9, 2026cs.AI

WorldKernel: A World Model is the Coupling Kernel of Admissible Possible Worlds

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Fabio Rovai

Structural Causal Models Causal World Models Causal Identifiability Causal Inference Counterfactual Reasoning Counterfactual Learning

May 28, 2026cs.AI

Physically Viable World Models: A Case for Query-Conditioned Embodied AI

World models for embodied AI must be physically viable: constructed to answer intervention queries by representing the physical structure governing action outcomes, rather than merely predicting future observations. Existing observation-predictive world models can produce visually plausible but physically wrong rollouts. This failure is structural; distinct physical systems can look identical yet diverge under intervention. We expose this problem with controlled benchmarks that fix the visible scene while varying latent physics. We show that such models may recommend infeasible actions, mispredict interaction outcomes, or certify unsafe behavior. We argue that embodied AI requires world models that identify the simplest physical abstraction sufficient to answer an intervention query. Such a model comprises modular components, including environment representation, latent state and parameter estimation, action specification, interventional dynamics, and query-level response. An autonomous orchestrator should identify the relevant abstraction and compose compatible learned and structured components per query. When closed-form physics is unavailable, uncertain, or costly, the transition model may be analytic, simulated, learned, or hybrid, but it must preserve the structure that determines interventional outcomes. This decomposition makes the model interpretable, its components verifiable, and its outputs auditable against the query. It also provides a design principle for new world models and a feasibility test for existing ones: the right abstraction is not the most detailed model of the world, but the simplest model that preserves the distinctions relevant to the query. We demonstrate this approach on queries that existing systems fail to answer correctly, and outline how an orchestrator can dynamically assemble and adapt physically viable models for planning, control, and verification.

Adam J. Thorpe, Stepan Tretiakov, Cheng-Hsi Hsiao +6

The University of Texas at Austin

World Models for Robotics Causal World Models World Models World Model-Based Planning Embodied AI World Model Evaluation

May 28, 2026cs.CV

YoCausal: How Far is Video Generation from World Model? A Causality Perspective

As video diffusion models (VDMs) advance toward world models, a key question arises: do they truly understand causality, or merely overfit to statistical temporal patterns? Existing benchmarks mostly rely on synthetic data, limiting real-world generalization due to the sim-to-real gap. We present YoCausal, a two-level benchmark inspired by the Violation of Expectation (VoE) paradigm from cognitive science. By temporally reversing real-world videos at zero cost as natural counterfactual samples, YoCausal establishes an arbitrarily extensible evaluation protocol. Level 1 introduces the Reverse Surprise Index (RSI), quantifying arrow-of-time perception via denoising loss. Level 2 introduces the Causality Cognition Index (CCI), which leverages a VLM to stratify datasets into causal and non-causal subsets, disentangling genuine causal reasoning from temporal bias. Evaluation of 13 state-of-the-art VDMs reveals that perceiving the arrow of time does not imply understanding causality, and a significant gap persists relative to human-level causal cognition.

You-Zhe Xie, Yu-Hsuan Li, Jie-Ying Lee +3

National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University · Shanda AI Research Tokyo

Video Diffusion Models Causal World Models Video Generation Causal Inference Causal Reasoning in Videos Video Generation Evaluation

May 28, 2026cs.CV

minWM: A Full-Stack Open-Source Framework for Real-Time Interactive Video World Models

Recent video diffusion foundation models have achieved remarkable progress in high-quality video generation, yet turning them into real-time interactive video world models remains challenging. Interactive world models require controllable, causal, and low-latency rollout, which in practice demands a full pipeline spanning data construction, controllable fine-tuning, autoregressive training, few-step distillation, and streaming inference. In this work, we present minWM, a full-stack open-source framework for building real-time interactive video world models. minWM provides an end-to-end pipeline that converts existing bidirectional T2V/TI2V video foundation models into camera-controllable few-step autoregressive world models. Specifically, minWM first fine-tunes a bidirectional video diffusion model with camera control, and then applies the Causal Forcing / Causal Forcing++ pipeline, including AR diffusion training, causal ODE or causal consistency distillation, and asymmetric DMD, to distill it into a few-step autoregressive generator for low-latency rollout. The framework is modular and architecture-extensible: we instantiate it on representative open backbones, including Wan2.1-T2V-1.3B and HY1.5-TI2V-8B, covering both cross-attention-based condition injection and MMDiT-style architectures. minWM also supports adapting existing video world models, such as HY-WorldPlay, to new data distributions, training recipes, and latency targets. Beyond releasing runnable scripts, checkpoints, documentation, and inference code, we provide practical ablations on camera trajectory quality, controllability training steps, and minimal batch-size requirements. We hope minWM serves as a reproducible and extensible recipe for building and adapting real-time interactive video world models. Project Page: https://github.com/shengshu-ai/minWM

Min Zhao, Hongzhou Zhu, Bokai Yan +9

1ShengShu 2THU · 1ShengShu 3RUC · 1ShengShu +4

Camera-Controlled Video Generation Video Diffusion Models Causal World Models Real-Time Interactive Video Generation Streaming Video Generation Autoregressive Video Generation+1

May 26, 2026cs.CV

What-If World: A Causal Benchmark for General World Models in Embodied Scenarios

Video generation models are increasingly used as world simulators for tasks like driving and robotic manipulation. What matters in these settings is not whether a single video looks right, but whether the model's output changes when its input changes. We test this by giving a model two prompts describing the same scene with one physical detail varied, and checking whether the two videos diverge the way physics predicts. The wording difference between the prompts is small by design, since only one variable is changed, but the correct physical difference is not. A model that misses this can still produce two videos that each look plausible individually, and existing benchmarks score videos one at a time and cannot detect this failure. We introduce What-If World, 319 such prompt pairs built on real frames from nuScenes and DROID, organized by a taxonomy of six physical variables shared across driving and manipulation. Each pair is scored with APEO, a four-part rubric checking whether each video follows its prompt (Adherence), is physically consistent (Physics), preserves the shared scene (Environment), and ends in the correct difference (Outcome). Across nine state-of-the-art models, no system exceeds 52% on the paired score, and open-source models cluster near 28%. Every model tested fails on a large fraction of causal interventions, indicating substantial room before these models can reliably support action-conditioned simulation or model-based planning. Where models do score well, performance appears to track the visual prominence of the intervention rather than the tractability of its underlying physics. Some visually subtle interventions score as low as 14.2%, while visually pronounced ones reach 40.4%.

Kunlin Cai, Rui Song, Jinghuai Zhang +7

1UCLA · University of Tennessee · 3Amazon

Physical Consistency in Video Generation Causal World Models Causal Counterfactual Generation Video Generation Video Reasoning Causal Reasoning in Videos+2

May 15, 2026cs.AI

Deterministic Event-Graph Substrates as World Models for Counterfactual Reasoning

We study event-graph substrates: a class of world models that represent agent state as an append-only log of typed RDF triples and answer counterfactual queries by forking the log under a structured intervention vocabulary. Substrates are inspectable at the triple level, support exact counterfactuals, and transfer across domains without learned components. We formalize the class, prove a duality between explanatory and counterfactual queries that reduces both to the same causal-ancestor traversal, and evaluate a 1,400-line CLEVRER-DSL interpreter atop a domain-agnostic substrate runtime at full CLEVRER validation scale (n=75,618). The substrate exceeds the NS-DR symbolic oracle on all four per-question categories (by 9.89, 20.26, 17.65, and 0.80 percentage points), and exceeds the parametric ALOE baseline on descriptive and explanatory while lagging on predictive and counterfactual. We also introduce twin-EventLog, a 500-specification Park-canonical Smallville counterfactual benchmark on which the substrate exceeds Llama-3.1-8B with full context by 18.80 points joint accuracy.

Fabio Rovai

Tesseract Academy

Causal World Models World Models Question Answering Counterfactual Reasoning Temporal KGs

May 14, 2026cs.CV

Entity-Centric World Models: Interaction-Aware Masking for Causal Video Prediction

Learning predictive world models from unlabelled video is a foundational challenge in artificial intelligence. While Joint Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPA) have set new benchmarks in semantic classification, they often remain physics-blind, failing to capture the causal dynamics necessary for downstream reasoning. We hypothesize that this stems from standard patch-based masking strategies, which prioritize visual texture over rare but informative kinematic events. We propose Interaction-Aware JEPA (IA-JEPA), which utilizes a self-supervised motion-centric masking strategy to prioritize physical interactions. By specifically targeting entities engaged in collisions or momentum transfers, we force the architecture to reconstruct latent trajectories rather than static background features. Evaluated on the CLEVRER benchmark, IA-JEPA achieves 14.26% accuracy on causal reasoning tasks, a significant lead over the 3.22% achieved by standard patch-masked baselines. Crucially, we demonstrate that IA-JEPA breaks the "static bias" of standard self-supervision by inducing a higher-entropy, more discriminative latent space (+10% entropy gain) that linearizes physical energy (

R^2=0.43

). We show that this interaction bias generalizes to real-world human actions (Something-Something V2) and zero-shot physical puzzles (PHYRE-Lite). Our results provide a scalable, fully self-supervised path toward building foundational world models that begin to internalize the causal structure of the physical world.

Santosh Kumar Paidi

Genentech, Inc.

World Model Learning Causal World Models Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture Video Prediction Causal Reasoning in Videos Physical Reasoning in Video+1

May 13, 2026cs.AI

PROMETHEUS: Automating Deep Causal Research Integrating Text, Data and Models

Large language models can extract local causal claims from text, but those claims become more useful when organized as persistent, navigable world models rather than as flat summaries. We introduce PROMETHEUS, a framework that turns retrieved literature, filings, reviews, reports, agent traces, source data, code, simulations, and scientific models into causal atlases: sheaf-like families of local causal predictive-state models over an explicit cover of a research substrate. Each local region contains causal episodes, structured claim tables, predictive tests, support statistics, and provenance; restriction maps compare overlapping regions; gluing diagnostics expose agreement, drift, contradiction, and underdetermination. The resulting Topos World Model is not a single universal graph. It is a research instrument for navigating what a corpus says, where it says it, how strongly it is supported, and where local claims fail to assemble into a coherent global view. Three literature-atlas case studies -- ocean-temperature impacts on marine populations, GLP-1 weight-loss evidence, and resveratrol/red-wine health-benefit claims -- illustrate deep causal research from text with explicit locality, evidence, persistent state, and gluing tension. Four grounded-counterfactual case studies -- a Nature Climate Change microplastics forcing paper, an Indus Valley hydrology paper with VIC-derived figure data and model code, the canonical Sachs protein-signaling study with single-cell perturbation data, and a Nature singing-mouse study with MAPseq projection matrices -- show a stronger mode: when a paper ships source data, simulation outputs, or code, PROMETHEUS can evaluate a counterfactual against that scientific substrate and then rebuild the sheaf world model around the

Sridhar Mahadevan

Adobe Research · University of Massachusetts, Amherst

Causal World Models Causal Attribution Causal Reasoning in Language Models Causal Reasoning Causal Inference Large Language Model-Guided Scientific Discovery

May 6, 2026cs.RO

Driver-WM: A Driver-Centric Traffic-Conditioned Latent World Model for In-Cabin Dynamics Rollout

Safe L2/L3 driving automation requires anticipating human-in-the-loop reactions during shared-control transitions. While most driving world models forecast the external environment, in-cabin intelligence remains strictly recognition-oriented and lacks multi-step rollout capabilities for driver dynamics. We introduce Driver-WM, a driver-centric latent world model that rolls out in-cabin dynamics causally conditioned on out-cabin traffic context. This formulation unifies physical kinematics forecasting with auxiliary behavioral and emotional semantic recognition. Operating in a compact latent space constructed from frozen vision-language features, Driver-WM adopts a dual-stream architecture to separately encode external traffic and internal driver states. These streams are directionally coupled via a gated causal injection mechanism, which uses a learned vector gate to modulate external contextual perturbations while strictly enforcing temporal causality. Experiments on AIDE show robust long-horizon forecasting on reactive high-motion clips, improved driver/traffic semantic alignment, and controlled interventions that expose the external-to-internal mechanism.

Haozhuang Chi, Daosheng Qiu, Hao Su +4

Nanyang Technological University, Singapore · Hubei University, Wuhan, China · Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

World Model Learning Causal World Models World Models Autonomous Driving World Models for Autonomous Driving Latent World Models