Clinical Outcome Prediction

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Overview

Clinical outcome prediction estimates what may happen to a patient, from short-term deterioration and readmission to disease progression, treatment response, and survival. Common approaches include tree-based models and survival analysis, temporal transformers and recurrent networks, multimodal fusion of EHRs with imaging or omics, and newer foundation models, federated learning, and causal or digital-twin methods. Evaluation spans settings such as ICU records from MIMIC and eICU, longitudinal Alzheimer’s cohorts such as ADNI, and multi-site cancer and imaging benchmarks, with attention to external validation, calibration, and subgroup performance. A central tension is that complex models can improve prediction, yet missing data, site shifts, label leakage, and weak uncertainty or fairness assessment often limit whether results generalize and support clinical decisions.

Latest papers

CardsList

266 papers24 papers in the last four weeks, down 8% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. A Domain Incremental Continual Learning Benchmark for ICU Time Series Model Transportability

    May 5, 2026Ryan King, Conrad Krueger, Ethan Veselka +2Clinical Outcome PredictionDomain-Incremental Learning

    Computer Science & Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, United States

  2. A Machine Learning Framework for EEG-Based Prediction of Treatment Efficacy in Chronic Neck Pain

    May 5, 2026Xiru Wang, Aiden Li, Hongzhao Tan +3Clinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Kinesiology, Faculty of Science, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada · W Booth School of Engineering Practice and Technology, Faculty of Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada

  3. Disentangling Shared and Task-Specific Representations from Multi-Modal Clinical Data

    May 5, 2026He Lyu, Huolin Zeng, Junren Wang +7Disentangled Representation LearningRepresentation Learning

    Department of Anesthesiology and West China Biomedical Big Data Center West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China · Med-X Center for Informatics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China · Department of National Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Synthetic Vision, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China +4

  4. Enhance the after-discharge mortality rate prediction via learning from the medical notes

    May 5, 2026Zijiang YangHealthcareClinical Outcome Prediction

    University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712, USA

  5. Forecasting Medium-Horizon Alzheimer's Disease Progression: Residual Gap-Aware Transformers for 24-Month CDR-SB Change from ADNI Clinical and Biomarker Histories

    May 4, 2026Ran Tong, Tong Wang, Lanruo Wang +1Residual LearningAlzheimer's Disease

    Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, United States · Department of Plant Science and Landscape Architecture, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States · Naveen Jindal School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX 75080, United States +1

  6. GeoSAE: Geometric Prior-Guided Layer-Wise Sparse Autoencoder Annotation of Brain MRI Foundation Models

    May 3, 2026Favour Nerrise, Lucy Yin, Mohammad H. Abbasi +2Alzheimer's DiseaseMedical Imaging Foundation Models

    Stanford University · Stanford University, CA

  7. ReMedi: Reasoner for Medical Clinical Prediction

    May 2, 2026Yushi Cao, Yiming Chen, Hongchao Jiang +2Fine-TuningClinical Outcome Prediction

    ASUS Intelligent Cloud Services (AICS), Singapore · NTU Artificial Intelligence Center of Research Excellence (NTU AI-CoRE), Taiwan · National University of Singapore, Singapore

  8. NEURON: A Neuro-symbolic System for Grounded Clinical Explainability

    May 2, 2026Anuradha Chandrasekaran, Dimitrios Zikos, Mutlu Mete +3Explainable Artificial IntelligenceClinical Outcome Prediction

    University of North Texas, USA and Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, USA · University of North Texas, USA

  9. Disease Is a Spectral Perturbation

    May 1, 2026John D. Mayfield, Matthew S. RosenClinical Outcome PredictionSpectral Methods

    Athinoula A. Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital · Department of Radiology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA 02129

  10. Temporal Data Requirement for Predicting Unplanned Hospital Readmissions

    May 1, 2026Ramin Mohammadi, Vahab vahdat, Sarthak Jain +3Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Prediction

    Northeastern University, Boston, MA, US​ · Partners Healthcare Connected Health Innovation, Boston, MA, USA · MGH Institute for Technology Assessment, Boston, MA, USA +2

  11. Deep Kernel Learning for Stratifying Glaucoma Trajectories

    May 1, 2026Bruce Rushing, Angela Danquah, Alireza Namazi +2Deep Kernel LearningClinical Outcome Prediction

    Research Computing, University of Virginia · School of Data Science, University of Virginia · School of Medicine, University of Virginia

  12. Linking spatial biology and clinical histology via Haiku

    Apr 30, 2026Yan Cui, Jacob S. Leiby, Wenhui Lei +6Computational PathologyHealthcare

    Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA · Department of Bioengineering, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA · Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Informatics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA +1

  13. PROMISE-AD: Progression-aware Multi-horizon Survival Estimation for Alzheimer's Disease Progression and Dynamic Tracking

    Apr 30, 2026Qing Lyu, Jeremy Hudson, Mohammad Kawas +3Alzheimer's DiseaseSurvival Analysis

    Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06510 USA · Department of Radiology Oncology, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC 27157 USA · Department of Applied Mathematics & Statistics and Department of Computer Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA

  14. Multi-Level Narrative Evaluation Outperforms Lexical Features for Mental Health

    Apr 30, 2026Yuxi Ma, Jieming Cui, Muyang Li +6Document UnderstandingDepression Detection

    Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Peking University · School of Psychological and Cognitive Sciences, Peking University · School of Intelligence Science and Technology, Peking University +3

  15. Toward Personalized Digital Twins for Cognitive Decline Assessment: A Multimodal, Uncertainty-Aware Framework

    Apr 29, 2026Bulent Soykan, Gulsah Hancerliogullari Koksalmis, Hsin-Hsiung Huang +1Alzheimer's DiseaseClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Mechanical, Industrial & Manufac. Eng. The University of Toledo Toledo, OH, USA · Department of Industrial Eng. and Mngt. Systems University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA +1

  16. Evaluating TabPFN for Mild Cognitive Impairment to Alzheimer's Disease Conversion in Data Limited Settings

    Apr 29, 2026Brad Ye, Bulent Soykan, Gulsah Hancerliogullari Koksalmis +2Tabular Foundation ModelsAlzheimer's Disease

    Department of Medicine, University of Central Florida College of Medicine, Orlando, FL, USA · NIMBUS Lab, University of Central Florida · Department of Mechanical, Industrial & Manufacturing Eng., The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH, USA +3

  17. Observable Neural ODEs for Identifiable Causal Forecasting in Continuous Time

    Apr 28, 2026Jennifer Wendland, Nicolas Freitag, Maik KschischoCausal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Computer Science University of Koblenz 53424 Koblenz, Germany

  18. Radiomics- and Clinical Feature-Driven Prediction of Volumetric Response in Skull-Base Meningioma after CyberKnife Radiosurgery

    Apr 27, 2026Yin Lin, Elena De Martin, Giacomo Conte +6Clinical Outcome PredictionRadiomics

    DEIB Polytechnic University of Milan Milan, Italy · Health Department Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta Milan, Italy · Neuroradiology Unit Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Neurologico Carlo Besta Milan, Italy +1

  19. An empirical evaluation of the risks of AI model updates using clinical data: stability, arbitrariness, and fairness

    Apr 27, 2026Ioannis Bilionis, Ricardo C. Berrios, Luis Fernandez-Luque +1Algorithmic FairnessClinical Outcome Prediction

    Adhera Health and Universitat Pompeu Fabra Barcelona, Spain · Adhera Health, USA · Adhera Health, Spain +1

  20. Machine learning models for estimating counterfactuals in a single-arm inflammatory bowel disease study

    Apr 25, 2026Dan Liu, Fida K. Dankar, Jennifer C. deBruyn +4Causal Effect EstimationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada · Alberta Children’s Hospital, Calgary, Alberta, Canada +3

  21. DeepImagine: Learning Biomedical Reasoning via Successive Counterfactual Imagining

    Apr 24, 2026Youze Zheng, Jianyou Wang, Yuhan Chen +8LLM Fine-TuningCounterfactual Reasoning in Language Models

    Laboratory for Emerging Intelligence, University of California, San Diego · University of Chicago · Elsevier +1

  22. RAG4Outcome: A Retrieval-Augmented Multimodal Framework for Prognostic Prediction in Chronic Osteomyelitis

    Apr 24, 2026Daqian Shi, Pei Han, Jishizhan Chen +4Retrieval-Augmented GenerationClinical Outcome Prediction

    Queen Mary University of London London, UK · Shanghai Sixth People’s Hospital Affiliated to SJTU School of Medicine Shanghai, CN · University College London London, UK

  23. An Integrated Framework for Explainable, Fair, and Observable Hospital Readmission Prediction: Development and Validation on MIMIC-IV

    Apr 24, 2026Isaac Tosin AdisaHealthcareAlgorithmic Fairness

    Department of Statistics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USA

  24. CognitiveTwin: Robust Multi-Modal Digital Twins for Predicting Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease

    Apr 24, 2026Bulent Soykan, Gulsah Hancerliogullari Koksalmis, Hsin-Hsiung Huang +1Alzheimer's DiseaseMultimodal Robustness

    Department of Mechanical, Industrial & Manufacturing Eng. The University of Toledo Toledo, OH, USA · Department of Industrial Eng. and Mngt. Systems University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA · Department of Statistics and Data Science University of Central Florida Orlando, FL, USA +1

  25. A Nationwide Japanese Medical Claims Foundation Model: Balancing Model Scaling and Task-Specific Computational Efficiency

    Apr 24, 2026Nanae Aratake, Taisei Tosaki, Yuji Okamoto +5Self-Supervised Pre-TrainingClinical Outcome Prediction

    1Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan. · 2Medical Data Vision Co., Ltd., Tokyo, Japan. · 3IQVIA Solutions Japan G.K., Tokyo, Japan. +1

  26. Learning Dynamic Representations and Policies from Multimodal Clinical Time-Series with Informative Missingness

    Apr 23, 2026Zihan Liang, Ziwen Pan, Ruoxuan XiongClinical Outcome PredictionOffline RL

    Emory University, Atlanta, USA

  27. A multimodal and temporal foundation model for virtual patient representations at healthcare system scale

    Apr 20, 2026Andrew Zhang, Tong Ding, Sophia J. Wagner +8Multimodal IRRepresentation Learning

    Department of Pathology, Mass General Brigham, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA · Cancer Program, Broad Institute of Harvard and MIT, Cambridge, MA · Data Science Program, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Boston, MA +5

  28. Medical Image Understanding Improves Survival Prediction via Visual Instruction Tuning

    Apr 20, 2026Xixi Liu, Jorge Lazo, Andreas Hallqvist +8Clinical Outcome PredictionMedical VLMs

    Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

  29. CT Open: An Open-Access, Uncontaminated, Live Platform for the Open Challenge of Clinical Trial Outcome Prediction

    Apr 17, 2026Jianyou Wang, Youze Zheng, Longtian Bao +11HealthcareForecasting Benchmarks

    Laboratory for Emerging Intelligence, University of California, San Diego · Elsevier · Department of Dermatology, University of California, San Diego

  30. Graph Transformer-Based Pathway Embedding for Cancer Prognosis

    Apr 17, 2026Koushik Howlader, Md Tauhidul Islam, Wei LeCancer GenomicsCancer Survival Prediction

    Iowa State University, Iowa, USA · Stanford University, CA, USA