Clinical Outcome Prediction

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Overview

Clinical outcome prediction estimates what may happen to a patient, from short-term deterioration and readmission to disease progression, treatment response, and survival. Common approaches include tree-based models and survival analysis, temporal transformers and recurrent networks, multimodal fusion of EHRs with imaging or omics, and newer foundation models, federated learning, and causal or digital-twin methods. Evaluation spans settings such as ICU records from MIMIC and eICU, longitudinal Alzheimer’s cohorts such as ADNI, and multi-site cancer and imaging benchmarks, with attention to external validation, calibration, and subgroup performance. A central tension is that complex models can improve prediction, yet missing data, site shifts, label leakage, and weak uncertainty or fairness assessment often limit whether results generalize and support clinical decisions.

Latest papers

CardsList

266 papers24 papers in the last four weeks, down 8% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. TheraAgent: Multi-Agent Framework with Self-Evolving Memory and Evidence-Calibrated Reasoning for PET Theranostics

    Mar 14, 2026Zhihao Chen, Jiahui Wang, Yizhou Chen +8Clinical Outcome PredictionLLM Agents

    Fudan University · University of Bern · Nanjing University +1

  2. A Discordance-Aware Multimodal Framework with Multi-Agent Clinical Reasoning

    Mar 12, 2026Pegah Ahadian, Mingrui Yang, Sixu Chen +2Clinical Outcome PredictionMedical Diagnosis

    Department of Computer Science, Kent State University, Ohio, USA · Department of Biomedical Engineering, Cleveland Clinic, Ohio, USA

  3. Leveraging Large Language Models and Survival Analysis for Early Prediction of Chemotherapy Outcomes

    Mar 12, 2026Muhammad Faisal Shahid, Asad Afzal, Abdullah Faiz +5Clinical Outcome PredictionCancer Survival Prediction

    CureMD Research, 80 Pine St 21st Floor, New York, NY 10005, United States

  4. EveryQuery: A Promptable Foundation Model for Clinical Prediction Tasks over Electronic Health Records

    Mar 9, 2026Payal Chandak, Gregory Kondas, Liat Antwarg Friedman +2EHR Foundation ModelsClinical Outcome Prediction

    Harvard-MIT HST · Columbia University · Harvard Medical School

  5. LF2L: Loss Fusion Horizontal Federated Learning Across Heterogeneous Feature Spaces Using External Datasets Effectively: A Case Study in Second Primary Cancer Prediction

    Mar 7, 2026Chia-Fu Lin, Yi-Ju TsengFederated LearningHeterogeneous Federated Learning

    Department of Computer Science, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan

  6. A federated learning framework with knowledge graph and temporal transformer for early sepsis prediction in multi-center ICUs

    Mar 6, 2026Yue Chang, Guangsen Lin, Jyun Jie Chuang +3Sepsis PredictionClinical Prediction

    Chengdu Medical College, Chengdu, Sichuan 610500, China · Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China · National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan 900, China +2

  7. Clinical-Injection Transformer with Domain-Adapted MAE for Lupus Nephritis Prognosis Prediction

    Mar 4, 2026Yuewen Huang, Zhitao Ye, Guangnan Feng +3Clinical Outcome PredictionComputational Pathology

    Sun Yat-sen University · Department of Nephrology, Guangzhou Women and Children’s Medical Center, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, China

  8. PreSight: Preoperative Outcome Prediction for Parkinson's Disease via Region-Prior Morphometry and Patient-Specific Weighting

    Mar 2, 2026Yand Wang, Chen Zhang, Lanyun Zhu +6Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Decision-Making

    Beijing Jiaotong University · Nanyang Technological University · Institute of Medical Technology, Peking University +3

  9. The MAMA-MIA Challenge: Advancing Generalizability and Fairness in Breast MRI Tumor Segmentation and Treatment Response Prediction

    Mar 1, 2026Lidia Garrucho, Smriti Joshi, Kaisar Kushibar +43Medical Image SegmentationMedical Image Benchmarks

  10. Stroke outcome and evolution prediction from CT brain using a spatiotemporal diffusion autoencoder

    Feb 28, 2026Adam Marcus, Paul Bentley, Daniel RueckertDiffusion AutoencoderClinical Outcome Prediction

    Imperial College London, London, UK · Technische Universität München, München, Germany

  11. Global Interpretability via Automated Preprocessing: A Framework Inspired by Psychiatric Questionnaires

    Feb 26, 2026Eric V. StroblInterpretable MLClinical Outcome Prediction

    Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh.

  12. Machine Learning Based Prediction of Surgical Outcomes in Chronic Rhinosinusitis from Clinical Data

    Feb 19, 2026Sayeed Shafayet Chowdhury, Karen D'Souza, V. Siva Kakumani +9Clinical Outcome PredictionClinical Decision Support

    Purdue University, Indianapolis, IN, USA · Indiana University Indianapolis, Indianapolis, IN, USA · Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID, USA +5

  13. A feature-stable and explainable machine learning framework for trustworthy decision-making under incomplete clinical data

    Feb 19, 2026Justyna Andrys-Olek, Paulina Tworek, Luca Gherardini +4Interpretable MLLearning with Missing Data

    Computational Intelligence, Sano Centre for Computational Personalised Medicine, Krakow, Poland · Clinical Studies Group, Randox Laboratories Ltd., Co., Antrim, United Kingdom

  14. CAMEL: An ECG Language Model for Forecasting Cardiac Events

    Feb 17, 2026Neelay Velingker, Alaia Solko-Breslin, Mayank Keoliya +9Electrocardiogram Foundation ModelsElectrocardiogram Interpretation

    University of Pennsylvania

  15. Hybrid Federated and Split Learning for Privacy Preserving Clinical Prediction and Treatment Optimization

    Feb 17, 2026Farzana Akter, Rakib Hossain, Deb Kanna Roy Toushi +3Uplift ModelingPrivacy-Preserving ML

    Dept. of Information Technology, Washington University of Science and Technology, Alexandria, VA, USA · Cognitive Links LLC, Maryland, USA

  16. Quantum Reservoir Computing with Neutral Atoms on a Small, Complex, Medical Dataset

    Feb 16, 2026Luke Antoncich, Yuben Moodley, Ugo Varetto +5Quantum Reservoir ComputingClinical Outcome Prediction

    Centre for Quantum Information, Simulation and Algorithms, The University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia · Centre for Respiratory Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia · School of Medicine & Pharmacology, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia +4

  17. Dementia-R1: Reinforced Pretraining and Reasoning from Unstructured Clinical Notes for Real-World Dementia Prognosis

    Jan 6, 2026Choonghan Kim, Hyunmin Hwang, Hangeol Chang +4Clinical Outcome PredictionAlzheimer's Disease Progression Prediction

    Graduate School of AI, KAIST, Republic of Korea · Haeundae Paik Hospital, Inje University, Republic of Korea · Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Republic of Korea

  18. Stochastic Siamese MAE Pretraining for Longitudinal Medical Images

    Dec 29, 2025Taha Emre, Arunava Chakravarty, Thomas Pinetz +9Masked AutoencodersSelf-Supervised Pre-Training

    Institute of Artificial Intelligence, Center for Medical Data Science, Medical University of Vienna, Austria · Department of Ophthalmology and Optometry, Medical University of Vienna, Austria · BioMedIA, Department of Computing, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom +8

  19. Towards Optimal Valve Prescription for Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement (TAVR) Surgery: A Machine Learning Approach

    Dec 9, 2025Phevos Paschalidis, Vasiliki Stoumpou, Lisa Everest +11Clinical Decision SupportClinical Outcome Prediction

    J. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Research, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA. · Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA. · Heart & Vascular Institute, Hartford HealthCare, Hartford, CT, USA. +3

  20. Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Prediction Using Transformer

    Nov 4, 2025Yohan Lee, Dong Gyun Kang, SeHoon Park +2Clinical Outcome PredictionLongitudinal EHR Modeling

    Department of Transdisciplinary Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea · Department of Computer Science, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA · Department of Nephrology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea +1

  21. MAGIC: Multi-task Gaussian process for joint imputation and classification in healthcare time series

    Sep 23, 2025Dohyun Ku, Catherine D. Chong, Visar Berisha +2Time Series ImputationTime Series Classification

    H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA · Department of Neurology, Mayo Clinic Arizona, AZ, USA · College of Health Solutions and School of Electrical Computer and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, AZ, USA

  22. Federated Learning for MRI-based BrainAGE: a multicenter study on post-stroke functional outcome prediction

    Jun 18, 2025Vincent Roca, Marc Tommasi, Paul Andrey +8Brain Age PredictionClinical Outcome Prediction

    Univ. Lille, CNRS, Inserm, CHU Lille, Institut Pasteur de Lille, US 41 - UAR 2014 - PLBS, F-59000 Lille, France · Univ. Lille, Inria, F-59000 Lille, France · Univ. Montpellier, Inria, F-34090 Montpellier, France +3

  23. Explainability in mulimodal deep transformation models for stroke outcome prediction

    Apr 7, 2025Lisa Herzog, Jonas Brändli, Maurice Schneeberger +7Clinical Outcome PredictionExplainable Medical Image Analysis

    University Hospital Zurich, Department of Neurology, Frauenklinikstrasse 26, 8091 Zurich, Switzerland · Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Institute of Data Analysis and Process Design (IDP), Technikumstrasse 9, 8401 Winterthur, Switzerland · University of Zurich, Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Prevention Institute (EBPI), Hirschengraben 84, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland +1

  24. Explainable Graph-theoretical Machine Learning with Application to Alzheimer's Disease Prediction

    Mar 20, 2025Narmina Baghirova, Duy-Thanh Vũ, Duy-Cat Can +6Clinical Outcome PredictionNeuroimaging

    Department of Informatics, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland · Platform of Bioinformatics, Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV), Lausanne, Switzerland · Faculty of Biology and Medicine, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

  25. Multimodal AI predicts clinical outcomes of drug combinations from preclinical data

    Mar 4, 2025Yepeng Huang, Xiaorui Su, Varun Ullanat +10Clinical Outcome PredictionMultimodal Learning

    Department of Biomedical Informatics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA · Program in Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA · Harvard College, Cambridge, MA +8

  26. Hierarchical Sparse Bayesian Multitask Learning for Disease Prediction in Pooled Microbiome Studies

    Feb 4, 2025Haonan Zhu, Andre R. Goncalves, Camilo Valdes +10Clinical Outcome PredictionMulti-Task Learning

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory · Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Michigan