Concept Drift

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8 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

Jul 13Week of Sep 28

Latest papers 56

Oct 6, 2026cs.RO

Mitigating Concept Drift in QoS Prediction for Teleoperation of Autonomous Vehicles Using Historic Data

Teleoperation serves as the fallback solution to autonomous driving but reliable functions of the teleoperation require a certain amount of mobile network resources, which cannot be guaranteed at all times. Therefore, predictive quality of service (pQoS) is introduced as a concept to increase the resilience of the teleoperation. In this paper, based on a data measurement campaign, we propose a prediction framework to prediction two important network KPIs of teleoperation: uplink data-rate and round-trip latency. Furthermore, we introduce a method to alleviate the performance degradation of machine-learning-based prediction models on previously unseen data due to concept drift by incorporating historic data into the prediction pipeline. Additionally, we introduce the metric of critical scenario detection to evaluate the prediction performance specifically for teleoperation.

Xiyan Su, Jianning Gao, Mahmoud Ashri +1

Institute of Automotive Technology, Technical University of Munich (TUM), Boltzmannstr.15, DE-85748, Garching bei München, Germany

Concept Drift Robot Teleoperation

Oct 6, 2026cs.DC

Beyond Marginal Monitoring: Distributed Joint-Distribution Testing for Data Concept Drift in Large Scale E-Commerce Operations

Concept drift threatens production machine learning, yet the empirical behavior of multivariate two-sample drift detectors at scale remains under-characterized. Existing benchmarks rarely address the hundreds of millions of rows and high-cardinality features typical of industrial-operational datasets. We evaluate five multi-column two-sample tests (marginal, projection-based, and kernel embedding methods) across three complementary environments: the Harvard Dataverse, a validated Failing Loudly reproduction (mean absolute error between 0.030 and 0.053), and a novel synthetic-injection benchmark on the 137.5-million-row Trendyol collection-ranking feature table. Testing four drift types across two severity-scope regimes, we demonstrate that distributed Maximum Mean Discrepancy with Random Fourier Features on Apache Spark scales robustly. Averaged over the four drift types in the strong regime and under a calibrated threshold, it achieves a Pearson correlation of r = 0.940 with expected drift magnitude, an 80.4% true positive rate, and a 3.2% false positive rate. Conversely, the per-dimension Kolmogorov-Smirnov test failed due to statistic saturation from ID-like columns under asymmetric sampling, establishing a critical constraint for large-scale sampling design. At weak configurations (realized-flip fractions of at most 0.57%), detectors struggled to reliably discriminate, highlighting the need for future intensity-grid power analyses to distinguish fundamental sensitivity bounds from scalable threshold shifts.

Cagdas Pullu, Mahmut Emir Arslan, Bugra Balkac +4

Data & Analytics, Trendyol Group, Istanbul, 34485, Istanbul, Türkiye. · Department of Data Science and Analytics, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, 34469, Istanbul, Türkiye.

Two-Sample Testing Concept Drift Maximum Mean Discrepancy Distribution Shift Detection

Oct 5, 2026cs.LG

LiLib: Lifelong Air-to-Ground Path-Loss Prediction on UAVs via a Drift-Triggered Model Library

UAVs that act as relays or base stations need accurate air-to-ground path-loss predictions for rate adaptation and placement, but propagation conditions change as a UAV moves between suburban, urban and high-rise areas, and the same areas are often revisited. Online regressors that adapt by forgetting must relearn each environment from scratch, whereas a single model trained on all data averages incompatible regimes. We propose LiLib, a lightweight continual-learning scheme in which a UAV maintains a small library of recursive-least-squares experts. A windowed residual test detects drift; a short probe phase then either reuses the best stored expert or creates a new one. In simulations based on four standard urbanization profiles, LiLib reduces prediction RMSE from 5.89 dB (best sliding-window baseline) to 4.03 dB (p < 0.001), lowers the error shortly after a return to a known environment from 12.3 dB to 5.7 dB, and recovers 99% of the throughput of a regime-aware oracle in rate adaptation. The library stores four experts in under 0.5 KB, and identifies regimes with 92% purity without labels. When a second UAV is initialized with the library of a peer, its error after environment changes halves. LiLib does not reach the oracle, and similar regimes may be merged when shadowing is strong. The results indicate that, for recurring drift, remembering is more effective than re-adapting.

Minh Tran

Hanoi University of Science and Technology (HUST), Hanoi, Vietnam

Concept Drift Wireless Communications Radio Propagation Modeling Online Continual Learning

Oct 5, 2026cs.LG

The Blind Spot Paradox: When Adaptive Classifiers Defeat Drift Detectors

Monitoring concept drift from an adaptive classifier's error stream creates an operational conflict with the model's own update loop. When internal adaptation outpaces evidence accumulation, accuracy recovers before cumulative detectors (CUSUM, Page-Hinkley) can reach threshold. Instrumenting an Adaptive Random Forest (ARF) shows that surviving trees absorb 98.6% of the post-drift error transient through incremental leaf updates alone. The first background tree swap accounts for just 0.71% of this erased error volume, but drops external detection rates by 31 percentage points. We derive the finite-horizon boundary where cumulative evidence fails to cross threshold and measure a critical magnitude floor (

Δe_c = 0.120

) below which false-alarm budgets preclude detection. This failure manifests as missed shifts on stationary streams and false-alarm flooding triggered by internal tree swaps on noisy baselines. We validate on synthetic shifts, ARMA-GARCH series (ProteuS), and tabular benchmarks (BAF, INSECTS); on the synthetic sweep at a standard threshold, the blind spot appears at

Δe \approx 0.25

, showing why classical benchmarks like SEA (

Δe \le 0.21

) failed to reach it.

Raphaël Minato, Fabrice Popineau, Arpad Rimmel +1

Université Paris-Saclay, CNRS, Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Sciences du Numérique, 91190, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Concept Drift Distribution Shift Detection Change-Point Detection

Sep 30, 2026cs.LG

In a Streaming World, Should You Stand Still? A Comprehensive Benchmark of Anomaly Detection in Streams

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is increasingly deployed in streaming settings, where data arrive sequentially and may exhibit non-stationarity. As a result, several works from the recent literature propose streaming anomaly detection methods that rely on incremental updates to adapt over time. However, most of these approaches originate from the streaming outlier detection literature and largely ignore core characteristics of time series anomalies. Moreover, their empirical evaluation is typically conducted on synthetic or small-scale benchmarks with limited diversity, making it unclear whether streaming methods are truly advantageous in realistic TSAD scenarios. In this work, we carry out the first large-scale experimental study comparing streaming and static TSAD methods under a unified streaming evaluation benchmark. We consider a realistic setting in which an initial batch of data is available for model training, followed by online evaluation of both detection accuracy and computational efficiency. In addition, we propose a distribution-drift dataset of real time series, called TSB- drift, to isolate scenarios where streaming updates are theoretically justified. Our results show that, contrary to common assumptions, static TSAD methods significantly outperform streaming approaches in most streaming settings. Such finding highlights a critical gap between the design of existing streaming methods and the requirements of modern TSAD, and calls for a rethinking of how streaming capabilities should be integrated into TSAD.

Magali Parrino, Antoine Ajenjo, Emmanuel Remy +3

EDF R&D Chatou, France · ENS, PSL University, CNRS, Inria Paris, France · DI ENS, ENS, PSL University, CNRS, Inria Paris, France

Online Anomaly Detection Concept Drift Time-Series Anomaly Detection Non-Stationary Time Series

Sep 23, 2026cs.LG

SR-Fraud: An Outcome-Supervised Reflective LLM Agent Framework for Non-Stationary Payment Fraud Detection

Real-time payment fraud detection is a non-stationary streaming prediction problem: adversaries adapt before supervised labels mature, and localized burst attacks can cause losses before retraining. Production systems typically rely on tabular classifiers and rules, which can struggle to capture these emerging sequential patterns before periodic retraining occurs. We present SR-Fraud, an outcome-supervised reflective LLM framework that decouples request-time decisions from offline adaptation. A frozen, stateless agent scores each transaction from a Hybrid Episodic Window to track behavioral shifts, while an offline reflection agent proposes boundary hypotheses from matured errors. A deterministic verifier then admits only supported hypotheses into an executable knowledge state. On a production payment-fraud benchmark, SR-Fraud improves all detection metrics over its frozen decision agent, obtains higher point estimates than static and periodically retrained CatBoost, and detects an emerging fraud burst.

Xuwei Tan, Yao Ma, Xueru Zhang

Coinbase, Inc. · The Ohio State University

Concept Drift Financial Fraud Detection LLM Agents

Sep 22, 2026cs.CR

HYDRA: Proactive Android Malware Drift Adaptation via Hierarchical Graph Contrastive Learning

Concept drift, driven by the rapid evolution of Android malware, severely degrades the performance of machine learning detectors. Current adaptation strategies are often reactive, responding only after performance has dropped and imposing a significant manual annotation burden, or they are proactive but rely on unstable adversarial training and incomplete, single-level graph representations. To overcome these limitations, we propose HYDRA (Hybrid Drift Adaptation), a proactive adaptation framework that learns drift-invariant representations from hierarchically structured data. HYDRA first models applications using a hybrid graph structure, combining fine-grained Control Flow Graphs (CFGs) and coarse-grained Function Call Graphs (FCGs) to capture comprehensive behavioral patterns. It then introduces a novel cross-domain contrastive learning objective that aligns historical (source) and new (target) data distributions. By generating pseudo-labels for unlabeled target samples, our method pulls representations of semantically similar applications together, regardless of their domain, within a single, stable optimization process. This approach unifies feature learning and domain alignment, eliminating the need for complex adversarial objectives. Extensive experiments on large-scale, time-ordered malware datasets demonstrate that HYDRA achieves substantially lower False Negative and False Positive Rates than state-of-the-art baselines while requiring up to 87.5% fewer labeled samples. Our work thus offers a robust and efficient solution to combat concept drift in security applications.

Han Chen, Hanchen Wang, Hongmei Chen +3

University of Technology Sydney Sydney, New South Wales, Australia · Yunnan University Kunming, Yunnan, China · University of New South Wales Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation Concept Drift Android Malware Detection Graph Contrastive Learning

Sep 21, 2026cs.LG

Concept Drift from a Causal Perspective

Concept drift is a common phenomenon in real-world data streams, in which changes in the data-generating distribution can degrade predictive model performance. Most existing definitions characterize drift as changes in the joint distribution

P(\mathbf{x}, y)

, without distinguishing which component of the data-generating process has changed. In this work, we introduce a causal perspective on concept drift based on Structural Causal Models (SCMs). We propose a taxonomy that categorizes drift events by their causal origin, including changes in exogenous variables, endogenous mechanisms, confounders, and target-generating processes. Building on this framework, we develop an SCM-based data stream generator that simulates controlled mechanism-level drift events. Our experiments empirically characterize the distributional effects of each drift type and show that drifts with different causal origins induce distinct patterns of distribution shift and predictive behavior. Furthermore, by integrating causal discovery methods, we use our framework to construct data streams grounded in real-world dependency structures, enabling more realistic and informative evaluation scenarios. We also demonstrate that leveraging the generated data can improve downstream performance. These results highlight the importance of accounting for causal structure when studying and evaluating adaptive learning methods, and establish a foundation for causally-aware evaluation in non-stationary environments.

Eduardo V. L. Barboza, Jean Paul Barddal, Robert Sabourin +1

LIVIA, École de Technologie Supérieure · Graduate Program in Informatics (PPGIa), Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Paraná (PUCPR)

Concept Drift Drifting Models Synthetic Data Evaluation

Sep 12, 2026cs.LG

General Quantification of Covariate and Concept Shifts

Generalization under distribution shift remains a core challenge in modern machine learning, yet existing learning bound theory is limited to narrow, idealized settings and is non-estimable from samples. In this paper, we bridge the gap between theory and practical applications. We first show that existing definition of concept shift breaks when the source and target supports mismatch. Leveraging entropic optimal transport, we propose a key notion:

\gamma^{*}\!

-concept shifts, and derive a general error bound unifying covariate and

\gamma^{*}\!

-concept shifts, which applies to broad loss functions, label spaces, and stochastic labeling. We further develop estimators for these shifts with concentration guarantees, and the DataShifts algorithm, which can quantify distribution shifts and estimate the error bound in most applications - a rigorous and general tool for analyzing learning error under distribution shift.

Hongbo Chen, Li Charlie Xia

Department of Statistics and Financial Mathematics, School of Mathematics, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, China.

Distribution Shift Concept Drift Covariate Shift Generalization Bounds

Sep 10, 2026cs.LG

SCCM : Stream Cruise Control Method for Automated Drift Detection and Adaptation

Real-world datasets often exhibit evolving distributions, known as concept drift. Ignoring drift degrades predictive performance, while reliance on fixed hyperparameters further limits model adaptability under changing conditions. Adaptive learning addresses this challenge by continuously updating models online, allowing them to incrementally adjust and remain effective as data distributions evolve. This paper presents the Stream Cruise Control Method (SCCM), a comprehensive framework for drift detection and adaptation in online regression. SCCM enables automated adaptation through early-response, pre-update drift detection, drift magnitude quantification, KPI-window-based thresholding for local false-alarm mitigation, dynamic hyperparameter tuning, and model recalibration. SCCM also adopts an in-memory design for real-time adaptability, unlike purely reactive methods that typically activate adaptation only after performance degradation is observed. By using dynamic thresholding and remaining agnostic to data distributions, SCCM supports KPI-based monitoring across varying data streams, including high-dimensional and large-scale settings. SCCM is integrated with four online regression models and evaluated on 18 synthetic datasets covering abrupt, incremental, and alternating gradual drift, together with eight real-world datasets. The evaluation uses both R2 and MSE and compares against eight detector--adaptation baselines. Results show improved predictive performance and effective drift handling across the evaluated online regression settings.

Mohammad Abu-Shaira, Weishi Shi

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of North Texas, 1155 Union Circle #311366, Denton, 76203, Texas, USA

Concept Drift Adaptive Learning

Sep 8, 2026cs.CR

Concept drift mitigation through community and spectral graph analysis for the detectionof cyberattacks in network traffic

In network traffic, legitimate behaviours and attack techniques evolve jointly - the phenomenon known as 'concept drift' [1]. Every detector is thereby left obsolete between two updates, and always one step behind adversaries. In this work, we propose to move the point of intervention from the model, repaired after the drift, to the feature space, selected before learning. We therefore introduce t-robustness, a stability score defined for each feature independently of any detection model, comparable across an entire feature space. It combines the step-by-step distance between successive statistical states of a feature, and its cumulative divergence from its initial state, so that a slow monotonic drift cannot pass for stability. The candidates are drawn from abnormal network connectivity patterns left by scans, DoS and communications between endpoints, read through graph community metrics and spectral metrics. The evaluation is performed on the UGR16 dataset, across three learning scenarios and a control scenario, as well as without model update, and demonstrate that t-robust feature spaces sustain detection where the baselines collapse: retained expectancy at the last test interval reaches 0.6025, against 0.5230 for graph community features and 0.3831 for the base NetFlow features.

Julien Michel, Abdul Qadir Khan, Majed Jaber +1

Laboratoire de Recherche de l’EPITA, 14-16 Rue Voltaire, Le Kremlin-Bicêtre, 94270, France · ICube, UMR7357, Université de Strasbourg, Strasbourg, 67000, France

Concept Drift Network Intrusion Detection Feature Selection

Sep 7, 2026cs.AI

Continual Graph Memory for Adaptive Recommendation under Intent Drift

This paper studies adaptive recommendation under intent drift, where feedback from each recommendation outcome can reveal whether the relational evidence used for ranking is useful, missing, or misleading. While Knowledge Graphs (KGs) provide essential semantic structure to handle these shifts, traditional KG-enhanced systems treat the graph as a static retrieval substrate, making it brittle to evolving intents, noisy metadata, and recurring failure patterns. This paper proposes CGM-Rec, a continual graph memory framework for adaptive recommendation. CGM-Rec treats the graph state as a writable memory and maintains two complementary components. Therein, a Semantic Graph Memory is updated conservatively through quality-gated typed operations for storing stable and high-confidence relational knowledge. Meanwhile, an Episodic Lesson Memory acts as a fast reactive memory that learns recent outcomes, failure cases, and corrective hints. During testing, model parameters remain frozen and adaptation occurs only through memory writes. We evaluate CGM-Rec under a frozen-parameter, one-pass reranking protocol, where encoders and prompts remain fixed during testing and adaptation occurs only through memory writes. Experiments across multiple recommendation settings show that CGM-Rec improves over evaluated neural and LLM-based baselines on most metrics. Particularly, under sampled-candidate reranking, CGM-Rec improves HR@1 by up to 29.58% over the strongest LLM baseline on Bundle, and outperforms K-RagRec on metadata-rich ML-100K with HR@5 of 0.5941 versus 0.4746.

Hao Nguyen Ngoc, Tung Nguyen, Nguyen Thi Hanh +2

Phenikaa University, Vietnam · Hanoi University of Science and Technology, Vietnam · University of Technology Sydney, Australia

Concept Drift Graph-Based Agent Memory Recommender Systems Knowledge Graphs

Aug 13, 2026cs.LG

Concept Drift Detection and Adaptive Retraining of Malware Classification Models

Concept drift refers to changes over time in the statistical properties of data, as compared to the data that was used to train a learning model. Machine learning models for malware detection or classification are particularly susceptible to performance degradation caused by concept drift, as attackers constantly modify existing malware. In this chapter, we analyze two machine learning-based approaches to automated concept drift detection-a novel approach based on One-Class Support Vector Machines (OCSVM) and a previously-studied technique based on Minibatch K-Means (MK-Means). For comparison we also consider Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), a statistical technique for detecting changes in multidimensional data. We conduct an extensive series of experiments comparing the effectiveness of four learning models, namely, Multilayer Perceptron, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting. For each of these models, we consider three distinct scenarios: A static scenario where no model retraining occurs, a periodic scenario where models are constantly retrained irrespective of concept drift, and a drift-aware scenario where models are only retrained when concept drift is detected. Under the drift-aware scenario, we analyze the tradeoff between accuracy and training efficiency using Pareto Front analysis. We find that all three concept drift detection techniques achieve classification accuracy comparable to periodic retraining, while offering substantially greater efficiency in terms of the number of models that must be retrained. In addition, drift-aware retraining based on our OCSVM technique generally outperforms the MK-Means and MMD approaches. Overall, these results provide strong evidence that we can accurately detect concept drift in malware classification models.

Christofer Washington Berruz Chungata, Martin Jurecek, Katerina Potika +2

Department of Computer Science, San Jose State University · Faculty of Information Technology, Czech Technical University in Prague

Concept Drift Malware Classification Adaptive Learning Drifting Models

Aug 13, 2026cs.LG

Incremental Evaluation and Training in Relational Deep Learning

Relational Deep Learning (RDL) models multi-tabular databases as temporal heterogeneous graphs to enable end-to-end representation learning. However, prevailing RDL evaluation practices rely on static, single-episode dataset snapshots, overlooking the continuous, time-evolving nature of real-world databases. Consequently, current RDL benchmarks fail to capture how model performance changes as new data accumulates over time. To address this limitation, we introduce an incremental, multi-episode evaluation and training paradigm to assess and improve the temporal robustness and adaptability of state-of-the-art RDL models. Using established large-scale datasets, we examine data evolution and model training dynamics, demonstrating that temporal concept drifts occur in the majority of predictive tasks. We present multiple incremental training regimes for fine-tuning the models and demonstrate that transfer learning is both feasible and highly effective in the RDL setting. Alongside a new temporal evaluation metric that prioritizes near-future accuracy, we show that our incrementally fine-tuned models consistently outperform the standard, expensive, from-scratch trained baselines.

Jakub Peleška, Gustav Šír

Czech Technical University in Prague

Concept Drift Online Continual Learning Incremental Learning Relational Deep Learning

Aug 7, 2026eess.SP

CFD-Guided Detection of Concept Drift in Multimodal Physiologic Signals

Cardiovascular AI models can classify clean elec- trocardiogram (ECG) signals, but real wearable signals change because of motion, breathing, posture, sensor contact, and true clinical deterioration. This paper asks when a model should keep its prediction, change it, or flag uncertainty. We propose a physiologic stability framework, called PECS, that compares changes inside the model with measurable changes in the signal. ECG is treated as the main cardiac signal, photoplethysmography (PPG) adds pulse and vascular information, and respiration is used only when ECG and PPG disagree. We test the framework on PTB-XL at pilot and full scales and on synchronized BIDMC and MIMIC waveform cohorts. The PTB-XL pilot and full- scale analyses selected different domain pairs, and the strongest cross-modal pair also changed across BIDMC and MIMIC, showing that adding every available signal is not always the best choice. PECS outperformed the evaluated drift-detection baseline implementations, reaching drift classification accuracy (DCA) of 0.8786 on expanded BIDMC and 0.9560 on MIMIC. The MIMIC results also showed that respiration can help during disagreement cases, but it should be used selectively rather than as an automatic override. Overall, the results support PECS as a candidate monitoring framework for wearable cardiovascular AI while highlighting the need for scale-aware domain selection and interpretable trust routing

Farouk Ganiyu Adewumi, Timothy Oladunni, Rochak Ghimire +3

Concept Drift Electrocardiography Wearable Health Monitoring Drifting Models Multimodal Sensor Fusion

Aug 6, 2026cs.AI

Challenges in Evaluating Explanation Methods for Static and Evolving Data

This paper addresses the limitations of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) with respect to insufficient evaluation. They are illustrated through the DetoxAI image recognition system for bias detection and concept unlearning. Then, an example of a human-grounded evaluation of methods for explaining image classification is presented. The paper further explores methods for adapting explanations to evolving data streams with concept drift. Experiences with adapting counterfactuals for this problem are discussed. Finally it is related to the challenges of tracking the co-evolution of data, models, and explanations.\footnote{This paper has been accepted for a publication in J.Nalepa (ed) Explainable AI in Space. Proceedings of EASi 2026 Workshop at IJCAI-ECAI 2026 Bremen, Springer CCIS vol 3107 (2016).}

Jerzy Stefanowski

Poznan University of Technology, Institute of Computing Sciences, Poland

Explainable Artificial Intelligence Concept Drift Explainability Evaluation

Aug 3, 2026cs.LG

NOMADD: Numerical Optimization of Models Adapting to Data Drift

Tabular model performance degrades when feature distributions change over time or the relationship between features and outcome variables change over time, known as data drift and concept drift, respectively. These issues are challenging to mitigate in real time because labeled data may not be immediately available, or re-training a model could be impractical. While tools exist to reduce drift, they are typically bespoke to neural network architectures and adapt how models are trained. In this paper, we offer an alternative post-hoc method to reduce concept drift, which is applicable to a variety of models, from trees to neural networks to tabular foundation models. This new tool is especially useful when constraints, such as high model accuracy, bounded inference time, or model size requires users to choose between different models for their specific use-cases. Our algorithm fits the base model separately on each labeled training period, measures how its parameters evolve against a single anchor model pooled over all of those periods, compresses those changes with a low-rank factorization, and extrapolates each latent factor forward with a damped, regularized forecast. On the 18-dataset Drift-Resilient TabPFN benchmark, evaluated under that benchmark's own protocol and metric, the extrapolation improves every base family it is applied to, and achieves performance competitive with the state-of-the-art Drift-Resilient TabPFN with seconds of training. In contrast, Drift-Resilient TabPFN requires pre-training on millions of synthetic datasets over approximately 1,300 GPU-hours, and is orders of magnitude slower in inference (depending on the model). In the discussion, we explore the promise and challenges of extending this tool to other modalities.

Swapn Shah, Keith Burghardt

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

Concept Drift Tabular ML Drifting Models

Aug 3, 2026cs.AI

KC-Agent: A Dual-Process Cognitive Architecture for Efficient ML Model Improvement

Data drift poses significant challenges for machine learning systems in production, requiring continuous model updates to maintain performance. We present KC-Agent, a dual-process cognitive architecture for automated ML model improvement that combines fast pattern recognition (System 1) with deliberate incremental updates (System 2). Our approach implements structured memory systems enabling System 1 to leverage successful solutions previously discovered by System 2, achieving efficient pattern-based responses without costly re-computation. KC-Agent incorporates atomic change principles and rollback capabilities to ensure reliable, verifiable updates in production environments. We evaluate our method on five datasets including real-world NASA turbofan data with authentic temporal degradation and synthetic datasets with controlled drift scenarios. KC-Agent achieves state-of-the-art performance (76.8% accuracy) while maintaining optimal efficiency (13.2s execution time), outperforming established cognitive architectures: CodeAct (+2.4%), Tree of Thoughts (+3.6%), ReAct (+8.0%), and Reflexion (+8.9%). Consensus evaluation by a panel of state-of-the-art LLMs confirms superior strategic efficacy (8.33/10 Smartness score), significantly outperforming baseline agents. The knowledge consolidation mechanism delivers 91% speedup over the slow variant while maintaining higher accuracy. Our approach demonstrates both theoretical foundations and practical viability for cognitive-inspired automated ML improvement systems capable of handling complex real-world data drift scenarios.

Gusseppe Bravo-Rocca, Jordi Guitart, Ajay Dholakia +2

Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain · Cotiviti, South Jordan, UT, United States · Universitat Polit`ecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain +1

Cognitive Modeling Concept Drift Online Continual Learning Automated Machine Learning Self-Improving Agents Memory-Augmented Agents

Jul 29, 2026cs.LG

Latent States in Neural Networks: Recovering the Temporal Structure of Drifting Data from Model Weights

A temporally drifting data stream may pass through discrete regimes rather than changing continuously. We ask whether such regimes are recoverable from the weights of models trained on the stream, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) fit to the chronologically ordered trajectory of those weights. We study this question in two domains known to drift over time: multimodal misinformation detection, using the Fakeddit dataset; and sentiment analysis, using the Yelp dataset. We train classifiers on consecutive temporal windows and fit an HMM to the trajectory of their aligned weights, recovering latent states that partition each timeline into coherent phases. On both datasets, classifiers generalize better to data from windows sharing the state of their training window than to windows across state boundaries. This within-state transfer advantage survives a control for temporal proximity and modestly exceeds the advantage recovered by a naive partition into contiguous states of equal size. Although the states are estimated solely from model weights, they correlate more strongly with shifts in the data's class distribution than with the weight-space geometry used to estimate them. After class divergence and lag are residualized out, the within-state advantage exceeds its permutation null on both tasks, indicating that the states recover structure relevant to transfer beyond the data distribution. Every effect replicates on both tasks but is attenuated on Yelp, whose label distribution is more temporally stable.

Kevin Guan

Department of Mathematics, Princeton University

Concept Drift Transfer Learning

Jul 27, 2026cs.LG

MobiWave: Dispatch-Oriented Graph Wavelets and Drift-Guided Selective Optimization for Autonomous Fleet Rebalancing

Autonomous fleets enable mobility platforms to coordinate idle vehicles directly, making fleet-wide rebalancing possible. However, two obstacles limit reliable deployment: overlapping regional and local traffic patterns can hide roads that remain useful for dispatch, and mobility drift can make a trained policy unreliable. Existing spatial aggregation mixes these patterns, while updating all parameters from limited recent data is costly and can damage stable knowledge. We propose \name, a framework that connects a dispatch-oriented multi-scale graph wavelet module with Drift-Guided Layer-Selective Optimization (DGLS). The first module addresses the representation challenge by separating graph-frequency patterns and weighting each scale according to its value for demand prediction and feasible rebalancing. DGLS addresses the adaptation challenge by measuring Dispatch-weighted Spectral Drift, selecting affected layers within a resource budget, and separating short shocks from persistent changes through a drift-aware fast--slow update. Candidate validation further rejects updates that fail to improve held-out dispatch reward without worsening monitored service or safety constraints. Experiments on both real-world datasets and simluated environments demonstrate the effectiveness of \name\ in comparing with state-of-the-art methods. The source code and datasets are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MobiWave-40F8/.

Xiao Han, Pinbo Wang, Yuanshao Zhu +2

Graph Neural Networks Concept Drift Vehicle Routing Selective Fine-Tuning

Jul 22, 2026eess.SP

Drift-Aware RL-based Wavelet Denoising for Network-Traffic Anomaly Detection

Traffic-utilisation measurements for network monitoring are corrupted by additive noise and statistical drift: time-dependent change in the signal's mean, variance, distributional shape, or tail behaviour. Static wavelet denoising, calibrated under stationary independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) Gaussian assumptions, becomes mismatched under drift and, at moderate-to-high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), over-suppresses useful structure and degrades monitoring decisions. We propose a drift-aware framework treating adaptive wavelet denoising as a preprocessing layer optimised for two tasks: anomaly detection, recovering the multi-scale transient load bursts that noise and drift obscure, and capacity estimation, recovering the operational required capacity

C_{95}

(95th percentile of utilisation). Because localised bursts are multi-scale structure a wavelet preserves but a low-pass filter removes, detection discriminates denoiser families. A four-detector gate (Page-Hinkley, variance-ratio, Jensen-Shannon, Anderson-Darling) determines when to invoke a learned policy, and a Proximal Policy Optimization agent selects a per-window wavelet configuration over a mixed discrete-continuous action space. Unlike prior work, the reward is downstream task utility, not reconstruction fidelity. The denoiser is benchmarked, per drift type and input SNR, against a low-pass moving-average filter, VisuShrink, SureShrink, BayesShrink, and a Wiener filter. Defining the anomaly target on the clean signal and the drift gate on the corruption keeps both stages non-circular.

Priyalakshmi Sheela, Indrakshi Dey

Walton Institute, Department of Computing, South East Technological University, Waterford, Ireland

Reinforcement Learning Concept Drift Wavelet Methods Anomaly Detection

Jul 21, 2026cs.AI

Black-Mamba: Biologically-Inspired Leaky Accumulation for Conceptual Knowledge under Distribution Drift

Forecasting under real-world conditions is inherently non-stationary, as the conditional distribution of future observations evolves over time. Recent test-time adaptive sequence models address this challenge by updating internal states during inference, but tie adaptation to instantaneous prediction errors or surprise. This coupling can conflate persistent distribution shift with stochastic innovations, leading to unnecessary updates and inefficient adaptation. We introduce Black-Mamba, a test-time adaptive forecasting architecture that formulates online adaptation as evidence-gated state tracking under distribution drift. The model augments a base predictor with a dynamic memory updated when temporally accumulated surprisal provides sufficient evidence of a regime change. This turns adaptation into a selective, event-driven process rather than a continuous one. Across multiple forecasting benchmarks with non-stationary dynamics, Black-Mamba achieves competitive or improved predictive performance compared to existing test-time adaptation methods while significantly reducing the number of memory updates during inference. Together with mathematical analysis and biological evidence, these results suggest that accumulated surprisal provides a principled signal for distinguishing persistent drift from transient noise, yielding more efficient and robust adaptation.

Giuseppe Soriano, Nicola Tonellotto, Alberto Gotta

University of Pisa National Research Council (CNR) Pisa, Italy · University of Pisa Pisa, Italy · National Research Council (CNR) Pisa, Italy

Test-Time Adaptation Concept Drift Continual Test-Time Adaptation Distribution Shift Detection Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting

Jul 20, 2026cs.LG

A Continual Validation, Updating, and Decision-Making Framework for Self-Adaptive Digital Twins via Robust Model Predictive Control: A Case Study in Additive Manufacturing

Digital Twins rely on surrogate models to mirror physical systems in real time, yet these models can degrade as operating conditions evolve, a phenomenon known as concept drift. Maintaining surrogate fidelity under drift, particularly when models must also capture aleatoric uncertainty, remains an open challenge. Existing adaptive frameworks lack principled mechanisms for detecting when updates are needed, for efficiently adapting models from limited streaming data, and for certifying that updates genuinely improve predictive performance. Here we present an adaptive Digital Twin framework that integrates a Fisher score--based multivariate drift detector, Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) for parameter-efficient continual learning, and a Mann--Whitney

U

test for online statistical validation. The framework monitors surrogate-model confidence via Fisher score vectors, triggers targeted fine-tuning of fewer than 1% of model parameters upon drift detection, and statistically certifies predictive improvement before deploying the updated surrogate. Applied to a stochastic linear system and a directed energy deposition additive manufacturing process as case studies, the framework successfully detects distributional shifts with short delays and restores both predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification under abrupt and incremental drift. These results establish a statistically rigorous and computationally tractable pathway for sustaining the trustworthiness of neural-network--based Digital Twins throughout their operational life cycle.

Yi-Ping Chen, Ying-Kuan Tsai, Vispi Karkaria +3

Department of Mechanical Engineering, Northwestern University · Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Science, Northwestern University

Neural Surrogate Modeling Concept Drift Online Continual Learning Digital Twins

Jul 18, 2026cs.LG

Dimension-Calibrated Unexplained Mass: An Interpretable Drift Statistic for Contamination Monitoring in Data Streams

Drift detectors that work tend not to explain themselves, and drift detectors that explain themselves tend to fail in high dimension. We close that gap for Gaussian mixture models (GMMs): each fitted component is a named "regime," and the fraction of a stream window matching no regime -- its unexplained mass -- is a drift signal that is simultaneously its own explanation. We identify why this statistic collapses in high dimension and repair it. Under a correct component a normal point in d dimensions lies about sqrt(d) sigma from the mean, so once d exceeds 9 essentially every point exceeds a fixed 3-sigma radius: window-level ROC-AUC is exactly 0.50 on Satellite (d=36) and Optdigits (d=64). Calibrating the radius to sqrt(chi-squared_d(0.99)) removes the collapse -- AUC 1.00 and 0.89 -- while leaving low dimensions unchanged. Across seven public benchmarks, five seeds, and eight model-free detectors spanning the kernel, classifier, projection, density-difference, transport, likelihood and partition families, the repaired statistic is best or tied-best on five of seven datasets at 10% window contamination (its two losses are Pendigits, where the whole field beats it, and Optdigits), and as contamination becomes sparse the sample-level detectors fade toward chance while it degrades most gracefully: at 2% its mean AUC across the benchmarks is 0.86 against at most 0.73 for any model-free detector (1.00 vs. MMD's 0.72 on KDD-http) -- while alone among them reporting which regime the data left and how far outside it the window lies. We delimit its scope honestly: unexplained mass detects and explains novel-regime drift but is blind by construction to in-support re-weighting of known regimes, where distribution-level tests are required and explain nothing; and the underlying density model's EVT-calibrated false-alarm rates degrade above d of about 36. All code and experiments are released.

Behnam Asadi

Concept Drift Gaussian Mixture Models Distribution Shift Detection OOD Detection

Jul 9, 2026cs.NI

ADORN: Adaptive Drift handling for Open RAN using Reinforcement Learning

Dynamic traffic variations in Open Radio Access Networks (O-RAN) lead to drift, which degrades the performance of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning (AI/ML) models. Traditional retraining approaches maintain forecasting accuracy but incur high computational cost and may lead to violations of Service Level Agreements (SLAs). This work proposes a Q-learning-based adaptive retraining approach that formulates the retraining decision as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), where a Reinforcement Learning (RL) agent learns a policy that balances forecasting accuracy and retraining cost. The proposed approach incorporates a multi-expert Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) ensemble to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and improve robustness across diverse traffic conditions. Experimental results show that the proposed approach effectively reduces retraining overhead compared to greedy and random baselines, while maintaining system performance within predefined limits.

Ashit Kumar Subudhi, Bhargav Chirumamilla, Shubham Vaishnav +5

Indian Institute of Technology Dharwad, Karnataka, India · Johns Hopkins University, USA · Stockholm University, Sweden +2

Concept Drift Open Radio Access Network Adaptive Learning

Jul 9, 2026cs.LG

Self-Adaptive Anomaly Detection with Reinforcement Learning and Human Feedback in Connected Vehicles

Connected vehicles are autonomous cyber-physical systems whose behavior must be continuously monitored during operation to detect deviations from normal operation before they propagate into failures. Such evaluation is challenging because the systems themselves evolve: over-the-air updates, configuration changes, and shifting workloads alter the definition of normal behavior, causing static diagnostic methods to degrade silently over time. Existing approaches typically address either automated model adaptation or operator integration in isolation, rather than as a single coordinated supervisory loop. This paper presents an online anomaly detection framework for autonomous CPS that integrates three coordinated mechanisms. A factorized deep Q-network with self-attention selects the most suitable detector from a candidate pool for each monitored service, exploiting inter-service dependencies in the microservice topology. An ensemble of three statistical drift detectors monitors the input distribution and raises an alarm only when all three concur, prioritizing precision over recall. A human-in-the-loop retraining mechanism, built around a pending transition buffer and a 60/40 prioritized replay strategy, allows the operator to incorporate expert knowledge while preserving the system's learned response to prior data distributions. The framework is evaluated on a connected-vehicle testbed running an automated valet parking application across seven backend microservices. The attention-augmented agent achieves an F1 score of 0.69, compared to at most 0.11 for any single detector applied uniformly. Following a real software update that induces measurable concept drift, F1 drops to 0.52; after operator-triggered retraining, performance recovers to 0.65 on the new distribution while remaining at 0.69 on the prior one, demonstrating sustained adaptation without catastrophic forgetting.

Matthias Weiß, Athreya Hosahalli Prakash, Maurice Artelt +3

Institute of Industrial Automation and Software Engineering (IAS), University of Stuttgart, Pfaffenwaldring 47, 70550 Stuttgart, Germany

Online Anomaly Detection Concept Drift Human-in-the-Loop AI Anomaly Detection

Jul 8, 2026cs.LG

When Does Continual Learning Require Learning

As large language models (LLMs) become increasingly capable, the next question is how can we enable models to continually learn? Today, the field largely frames this as a problem of context management and mitigating forgetting. We argue this framing is incomplete: continual learning is fundamentally about increasing model competence as the world changes. We disentangle this change along two axes -- space, where the model encounters new domains, and time, where the underlying data drifts under a fixed task. This framing lets us study continual learning under realistic conditions: new domains arrive over time, facts drift past their training cutoff, and agentic interactions accumulate state across episodes. To evaluate methods under this setting, we recast widely used LLM benchmarks as sequential problems and introduce a single mechanism-agnostic protocol that compares prompt-based methods (GEPA, ACE), supervised learning (SFT, SDFT), reinforcement learning (GRPO, SDPO), and context compression (Cartridges, In-place TTT). Prompt-based methods fit each new stage quickly but degrade on future tasks. Distillation-based methods accumulate knowledge stably but struggle to update outdated facts. Context compression improves efficiency without substantially improving the ability to learn new tasks. Online reinforcement learning adapts most effectively to knowledge updates but remains sensitive to noisy reward signals. Overall, our results suggest that continual learning is not a single capability: different patterns of environmental change require fundamentally different update behaviors, determining when adaptation must be learned inside model weights and when it can be achieved through external scaffolding. We hope that understanding where each method succeeds and fails will guide the design of stronger continual learning systems.

Anne Harrington, Nayan Saxena, Michael Murphy +7

1UC Berkeley · 2Independent · 3Capital Fund Management

Continual Learning for LLMs Concept Drift Domain-Incremental Learning

Jun 29, 2026cs.LG

Hybrid Active-Online Learning Framework for Label-Efficient Concept Drift Adaptation in Optical Network Failure Detection

We propose a hybrid active-online learning framework for label-efficient concept drift adaptation in optical network failure detection. Using margin-based selective labeling, our method achieves nearceiling accuracy and AUC scores while querying only 3.4% of streaming samples, with negligible latency overhead compared to static inference.

Yousuf Moiz Ali, Jaroslaw E. Prilepsky, João Pedro +4

Aston University, Birmingham, UK · Nokia, Optical Networks, Carnaxide, Portugal · Nokia, Munich, Germany

Concept Drift Active Learning Online Learning Fault Diagnosis

Jun 27, 2026cs.CL

DriftGuard: Safety-Aware Multi-Monitor Detection and Selective Adaptation for Evolving Toxicity Moderation

Automated toxicity moderation systems operate in dynamic online environments where harmful behavior evolves through coded language, shifting targets, and strategic adaptation to enforcement. Existing drift detection methods often focus on global distributional change, but such signals may miss safety-relevant shifts that emerge in localized harm subspaces or high-risk model-error regions. This paper introduces DriftGuard, a safety-aware adaptive moderation framework that combines multi-monitor drift detection with selective model updating. The framework tracks global text drift, identity-harm drift, model uncertainty, toxic-risk drift, and false-negative-risk drift. When safety-relevant change is detected, the model is updated using a hard-mix adaptation set that prioritizes likely false negatives, identity-related high-risk examples, false-positive-risk examples, and uncertain boundary cases. Experiments on Civil Comments temporal shift and Jigsaw-to-DynaHate cross-dataset shift show that safety-aware monitors detect risks missed by global drift alone. Hard-mix adaptation improves toxic recall and accuracy over no-update and random-balanced baselines, raising toxic recall to 0.8777 on Civil Comments and from 0.7107 to 0.8523 on DynaHate. Bootstrap analysis further shows stable DynaHate safety gains, with toxic recall increasing by 0.1418 and false-negative prevalence decreasing by 0.0781. Overall, DriftGuard links safety-aware drift detection to targeted, lightweight model updating for more robust adaptive toxicity moderation.

Yuting Xin, Hanyu Cai, Binqi Shen +2

Department of Information and Decision Sciences University of Minnesota Minneapolis, USA · Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Sciences Northwestern University Evanston, USA · Fuqua School of Business Duke University Durham, USA +1

Concept Drift Continual Test-Time Adaptation Toxicity Detection

Jun 22, 2026cs.LG

DT-GOL: Dual-Track Geometric Online Learning in Nonstationary Environment with Label Delay

Online learning is crucial for handling complex data streams in big data applications. Recent research has begun to focus on dynamic scenarios, i.e., non-stationary environments. However, a crucial yet often overlooked aspect is label latency, where new data may not receive labels in time due to the slow and expensive labeling process, thus hindering rapid adaptation to dynamic environments. To resolve this impasse, we propose Dual-Track Geometry Online Learning (DT-GOL), a novel framework that shifts from temporal compensation to spatial reasoning to bridge the supervised latency gap. By modeling the delay challenge as a semi-supervised task, we leverage real-time topological evolution of features as a reliable geometric surrogate for unobservable conceptual changes to achieve proactive supervised adaptation within the delay window. Unlike rigid self-training, we introduce a dynamic evidence calibration mechanism that distills geometric information into soft labels that perceive uncertainty, effectively mitigating the confirmation bias inherent in hard pseudo-labels. Furthermore, to resolve the stability-plasticity dilemma, we design a decoupled dual-track architecture in which a master learner serves as a stable anchor, updated strictly from delayed ground truth, while a transient branch leverages soft geometric knowledge for low-risk forward adaptation. Extensive experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate that DT-GOL significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art baseline methods, especially in scenarios with concept drift.

Yulin Wang, Yi He, Dianlong You +1

College of Computer and Information Science, Southwest University Chongqing, China · Department of Data Science, College of William and Mary Williamsburg, VA, USA · School of Artificial Intelligence (School of Software), Yanshan University Qinhuangdao, Hebei, China